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Go Getta vs. Value Shopper (1 Viewer)

LawFitz

LawFitz

Footballguy
Some guys like to "let the draft come to them." They don't believe in targeting players because they like the flexibility of a higher ranked player falling and then grabbing him. So they go into draft with few targets and just fall into value shopper mode.

I, on the other hand am a go getta. I like to target guys that I like and then grab them a round or even two before their consensus ADP. I've found in the past when I passed on my target and instead took the value guy that fell, I've been burned more often than not. Sometimes guys fall unjustifiably and become true value plays. Other times they fall because, well, they're just not as good as you thought they were.

Lawerence Maroney was an example of this for me just last year. I was sitting in the sixth round and had my targets set on Roddy White. But when Maroney fell into my lap I just couldn't resist. I mean he had such a great end of season and looked to be the starter on the juggernaut Pats, how could I not pick him? I had him slotted as a 3-4th rounder and yet here he was in rd 6.

Well he busted royally and the guy I originally slotted into that pick had a break out year. I have had plenty of examples of this over the years with much fewer examples of value guys that panned out.

So this year, I'm throwing sheets to the wind and taking my targets no matter who else falls. Guys like Pip Rivers, Ray Rice, Pitt D, Percy Harvin, Michael Bush and Chris Henry will be on my squad even if I have to reach for all of them. Now I'm not taking these guys 4 or 5 rounds ahead of ADP, but 1 or 2 rounds, yes. Probably.

I'll add two stud WRs in the first two rounds and Ryan Grant and Ocho Cinco in Rds four and five and hopefully DMC and McGahee if possible and off we go.

Am I crazy? A lil. Is this VBD consistent? Nope. But I'd rather win or lose with my guys than with someone else's bums. I find the game much funner that way.

 
I say go with the guy you have concluded will do the best. Perhaps with a combination of your own insight and consensus type research.

Rankings are kind of like a psychological joke. There really is no value based on it because someone else thought something you might not agree with.

Rankings in general seem to flow in waves, a few people have certain ideas about a player and it spreads and all of a sudden Ochocinco is like out of the top 50 because of a down year... Maybe I notice more because Im mostly in dynasty leagues and real talent usually rises to the top. And top ten players at a given position generally dont just lose their ability.

Maroney is a good example like you said. People go Pats crazy and he had the pedigree I suppose. But still if you watched him, and followed his career trends I think there were a lot more question marks.

There are so many biases, and misjudgements that spread like a disease.

But then there's guys like Vjax, who was ranked below overhyped rookies, and I think if you looked at his actual skill level and how the charges like a big target, he was a good bet to achieve and he did.

 
LawFitz said:
Some guys like to "let the draft come to them." They don't believe in targeting players because they like the flexibility of a higher ranked player falling and then grabbing him. So they go into draft with few targets and just fall into value shopper mode.I, on the other hand am a go getta. I like to target guys that I like and then grab them a round or even two before their consensus ADP. I've found in the past when I passed on my target and instead took the value guy that fell, I've been burned more often than not. Sometimes guys fall unjustifiably and become true value plays. Other times they fall because, well, they're just not as good as you thought they were.Lawerence Maroney was an example of this for me just last year. I was sitting in the sixth round and had my targets set on Roddy White. But when Maroney fell into my lap I just couldn't resist. I mean he had such a great end of season and looked to be the starter on the juggernaut Pats, how could I not pick him? I had him slotted as a 3-4th rounder and yet here he was in rd 6. Well he busted royally and the guy I originally slotted into that pick had a break out year. I have had plenty of examples of this over the years with much fewer examples of value guys that panned out.So this year, I'm throwing sheets to the wind and taking my targets no matter who else falls. Guys like Pip Rivers, Ray Rice, Pitt D, Percy Harvin, Michael Bush and Chris Henry will be on my squad even if I have to reach for all of them. Now I'm not taking these guys 4 or 5 rounds ahead of ADP, but 1 or 2 rounds, yes. Probably. I'll add two stud WRs in the first two rounds and Ryan Grant and Ocho Cinco in Rds four and five and hopefully DMC and McGahee if possible and off we go.Am I crazy? A lil. Is this VBD consistent? Nope. But I'd rather win or lose with my guys than with someone else's bums. I find the game much funner that way.
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Nope. Not crazy at all. Riskier in some respects, but the rewards can be great. I'm actually starting a month-long series in my Gut Check Columns where I profile "higher-risk" strategies where you are less apt to wait for value in the conventional sense.
 
I think people have natural bents toward vaue or "go getta" -- or growth/momentum -- to steal from investing terms. And, just like the market, both are viable, but the one that fits your natural tendencies will likely work out best for you.

 
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LawFitz said:
Some guys like to "let the draft come to them." They don't believe in targeting players because they like the flexibility of a higher ranked player falling and then grabbing him. So they go into draft with few targets and just fall into value shopper mode.I, on the other hand am a go getta. I like to target guys that I like and then grab them a round or even two before their consensus ADP. I've found in the past when I passed on my target and instead took the value guy that fell, I've been burned more often than not. Sometimes guys fall unjustifiably and become true value plays. Other times they fall because, well, they're just not as good as you thought they were.Lawerence Maroney was an example of this for me just last year. I was sitting in the sixth round and had my targets set on Roddy White. But when Maroney fell into my lap I just couldn't resist. I mean he had such a great end of season and looked to be the starter on the juggernaut Pats, how could I not pick him? I had him slotted as a 3-4th rounder and yet here he was in rd 6. Well he busted royally and the guy I originally slotted into that pick had a break out year. I have had plenty of examples of this over the years with much fewer examples of value guys that panned out.So this year, I'm throwing sheets to the wind and taking my targets no matter who else falls. Guys like Pip Rivers, Ray Rice, Pitt D, Percy Harvin, Michael Bush and Chris Henry will be on my squad even if I have to reach for all of them. Now I'm not taking these guys 4 or 5 rounds ahead of ADP, but 1 or 2 rounds, yes. Probably. I'll add two stud WRs in the first two rounds and Ryan Grant and Ocho Cinco in Rds four and five and hopefully DMC and McGahee if possible and off we go.Am I crazy? A lil. Is this VBD consistent? Nope. But I'd rather win or lose with my guys than with someone else's bums. I find the game much funner that way.
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I concur with several of your points made here, especially with regards to targeting specific guys and going to get them maybe a round, or two, earlier than their ADP. However, a fine line should be drawn between value and favorites during a draft. Last year, for example, there were a couple of guys that I landed that both tremendously helped me to win/place in several leagues, Calvin and Boldin. Calvin was the guy that I just had to have and in a couple of drafts I selected him in the 2nd and 3rd Rds, which were both pretty early selections at the time that these drafts were held. But in my mind, I had to have this guy so I crossed my fingers, closed my eyes, and made a wish that this would not backfire. I selected Boldin with a mid-4th Rd selection in two separate drafts, and many of you will say that this is nothing unusual or special. But for me, I've never been a Boldin guy, but I chose him based strictly on value even though I had a few of my "favorites" still available to me. My primary point is that you may simply consider only targeting a few, select guys, and grab them a round or two earlier than most, but also I'd be inclined to make the majority of selections based on value instead of "must gets".
 
Mystery Achiever said:
I think people have natural bents toward vaue or "go getta" -- or growth/momentum -- to steal from investing terms. And, just like the market, both are viable, but the one that fits your natural tendencies will likely work out best for you.
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A value or fall-to-me strategy in my opinion beats the "go getta" Yeah, you could miss out on your big sleeper, but in the end, if you go for value at every round and even put value/proven production over positions you think you need, in the end you get many more assets to deal with and trade to improve your team and even get hte player you thought was a "must have" Save your sleepers for the last four or five rounds. Its easy to go head over heels on a player like Ray Rice, but if it costs you a proven commodity, its not worth it.Best of both worlds is to go for that player one time in the draft (sure, grab Ray Rice early at round six) but go value the rest fo the draft. That way you dont end up over your skis.
 
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LawFitz said:
Some guys like to "let the draft come to them." They don't believe in targeting players because they like the flexibility of a higher ranked player falling and then grabbing him. So they go into draft with few targets and just fall into value shopper mode.

I, on the other hand am a go getta. I like to target guys that I like and then grab them a round or even two before their consensus ADP. I've found in the past when I passed on my target and instead took the value guy that fell, I've been burned more often than not. Sometimes guys fall unjustifiably and become true value plays. Other times they fall because, well, they're just not as good as you thought they were.

Lawerence Maroney was an example of this for me just last year. I was sitting in the sixth round and had my targets set on Roddy White. But when Maroney fell into my lap I just couldn't resist. I mean he had such a great end of season and looked to be the starter on the juggernaut Pats, how could I not pick him? I had him slotted as a 3-4th rounder and yet here he was in rd 6.

Well he busted royally and the guy I originally slotted into that pick had a break out year. I have had plenty of examples of this over the years with much fewer examples of value guys that panned out.

So this year, I'm throwing sheets to the wind and taking my targets no matter who else falls. Guys like Pip Rivers, Ray Rice, Pitt D, Percy Harvin, Michael Bush and Chris Henry will be on my squad even if I have to reach for all of them. Now I'm not taking these guys 4 or 5 rounds ahead of ADP, but 1 or 2 rounds, yes. Probably.

I'll add two stud WRs in the first two rounds and Ryan Grant and Ocho Cinco in Rds four and five and hopefully DMC and McGahee if possible and off we go.

Am I crazy? A lil. Is this VBD consistent? Nope. But I'd rather win or lose with my guys than with someone else's bums. I find the game much funner that way.
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All players I am heavily targetting earlier than their current ADP. (Shhhh!) I am of the ilk that targets and acquires players whom I feel will be "breakout candidates" and always look to draft them much earlier than their ADP. Sometimes something will fall to me, but I usually stick to my guns and gut. It's worked in the past more often than altering course and grabbing the "value" pick.
 
gregjcross said:
Mystery Achiever said:
I think people have natural bents toward vaue or "go getta" -- or growth/momentum -- to steal from investing terms. And, just like the market, both are viable, but the one that fits your natural tendencies will likely work out best for you.
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A value or fall-to-me strategy in my opinion beats the "go getta"
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For me, too --- It is a waste for me to rank the Top 5 QBs :thumbup: -- but I have a definite value bent.
 
I'm a bit of both - in the early rounds I'm a go getta. I make a list of "studs" in order that I want them on my team. It's usually 20-25 players long. It's my draft list until they are all gone. It leads to some strange drafts like 4 RB for the first 4 picks. Or Last year - 3 WR for the first three picks.

In the middle rounds, I'm looking for value. I don't use ADP too much because I've never been in a league that seems to follow that line closely enough to be really helpful. Instead, I group players into tiers and when only 1 or two players are left in a position tier, I consider that value.

In the end rounds, I'm getting the player I want.

 
I'm a go getta in dynasty but a value shopper in redraft.

I love being on the end as well in redraft. The way I feel is someone ahead of me is going to make a mistake. So having back-to-back picks allows me to draft the guy I should draft plus the guy who should have gone earlier.

 
If your in a challenging league I don't think you will have much choice but to take the best value left available to you and you won't recieve any gifts.

I've been blown out on bad picks and bad draft position plenty of times when all (or most) of the owners are at a similar knowledge level.

If the league is 50% semi-noobs then I could possibly see the usefulness of being a go getter. But not in the leagues I play in.

 
In a rookie draft I'm more of a go-getter. Not enough rookies pan out to worry about VBD IMO, but in a initial draft, I'm more value based.

 
FUBAR said:
In a rookie draft I'm more of a go-getter. Not enough rookies pan out to worry about VBD IMO, but in a initial draft, I'm more value based.
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Yes. Actualy that is a good point.Since all the rookie floors are zero makes it a bit more important to go for the upside with those.I got forced into making a need pick (QB) this year. Hate doing that.
 
All I truly know is that the WORST feeling comes when you're NOT a go getter, try and wait for a player you want VERY much (like some kind of jackass) and who you thiiiiiiiink might actually falllll toooo youuuuuu... last pick and he's yours, last pick and he's yours aaaaaandddd... BOOM.

For me, it feels like a mixture of a whooshing in your ears and the feeling that you just flung yourself in a disgraced swan dive from your second story porch window.

That's just me, though.

 
Biabreakable said:
If your in a challenging league I don't think you will have much choice but to take the best value left available to you and you won't recieve any gifts.I've been blown out on bad picks and bad draft position plenty of times when all (or most) of the owners are at a similar knowledge level.If the league is 50% semi-noobs then I could possibly see the usefulness of being a go getter. But not in the leagues I play in.
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:goodposting: @ biakbreakable
 
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First off have your league go to an auction league and your options are much easier to work with.

I pick a few players that I will pay extra for and go get em. If the price goes too high I will always have other options and wait and see who the value is.

I prefer auction because every player is an option and your not forced to think is it too early to grab the guy you really want, also like the strategy aspect of it.

 
CaptainHook said:
I love playing with guys like you.Being a 'go getta' is nothing more than foolish arrogance.
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Slow down there bucko. You may call it foolish arrogance. I call it building a team with guys I want to root for and am high on.In the end, if I land 3-4 guys I wanted and it effectively costs me let's say my 6th round selection (b/c I draft everyone after rd 5 one round too early) then so be it. I see it as trading my 6th round guy plus the guys I wouldn't have wanted in the later rounds for the guys I did want.Maybe it's because I play in a 10-team league w/15 roster spots but I'd rather swing for the fences in the latter part of the draft with guys I want (and then rebuild via the waiver wire if I have to later) than take the mediocre 2nd and 3rd tier guys who "fall" into my lap in late rounds.Sometimes value emerges in the form of a guy you like and respect who falls (like Anquan for the poster above), but most of the time it's a guy you aren't really high on but consensus tells you is a good deal at that spot. I'm out on those guys.
 
Last year I think I had a similar debate (though not in general terms like here) about taking Calvin Johnson over Edge in the middle rounds. I got blasted by the value guys.

Swinging for the fences may be fools gold but falling for the value bum is slumming in another man's trash pile.

 
LawFitz said:
Last year I think I had a similar debate (though not in general terms like here) about taking Calvin Johnson over Edge in the middle rounds. I got blasted by the value guys.Swinging for the fences may be fools gold but falling for the value bum is slumming in another man's trash pile.
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There's no "wrong" strategy as long as it's implemented correctly.
 
It sounds like to me "Go Getta" just means take the highest ranked player on your board. Even if it is a little different than anyone else's. I agree. Everyone should be a go getta, unless they are sure they can get them a round later or cheaper.

 
LawFitz said:
CaptainHook said:
I love playing with guys like you.

Being a 'go getta' is nothing more than foolish arrogance.
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Slow down there bucko. You may call it foolish arrogance. I call it building a team with guys I want to root for and am high on.In the end, if I land 3-4 guys I wanted and it effectively costs me let's say my 6th round selection (b/c I draft everyone after rd 5 one round too early) then so be it. I see it as trading my 6th round guy plus the guys I wouldn't have wanted in the later rounds for the guys I did want.

Maybe it's because I play in a 10-team league w/15 roster spots but I'd rather swing for the fences in the latter part of the draft with guys I want (and then rebuild via the waiver wire if I have to later) than take the mediocre 2nd and 3rd tier guys who "fall" into my lap in late rounds.

Sometimes value emerges in the form of a guy you like and respect who falls (like Anquan for the poster above), but most of the time it's a guy you aren't really high on but consensus tells you is a good deal at that spot. I'm out on those guys.
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I think this is a key. In redrafts the smaller the league the more I feel you need to swing for the fences. In large leagues with large lineups, the surer things that are good values are usually a better way to win.
 
JGalligan said:
All I truly know is that the WORST feeling comes when you're NOT a go getter, try and wait for a player you want VERY much (like some kind of jackass) and who you thiiiiiiiink might actually falllll toooo youuuuuu... last pick and he's yours, last pick and he's yours aaaaaandddd... BOOM.For me, it feels like a mixture of a whooshing in your ears and the feeling that you just flung yourself in a disgraced swan dive from your second story porch window.That's just me, though.
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Well, it doesn't really work if you're targeting specific players. The idea is to not love anyone and not hate anyone. Then when you're up pick the guy who you think presents the best value at that time.
 
I'm a value shopper. This strategy has always worked for me. People always reach on players way too early or they get bored and don't pay attention. I can always count on that.

Being a "go getta" is too time consuming. You gotta find someone willing to deal with you and they always value their stuff far more than what it's worth. Then you have the back and forth offers...just too nerve racking and annoying for me. I'll let you other guys deal with that.

But I love having players like DHB fall to 1.23 in a 32 team IDP league and Jared Cook all the way to 2.15 in that same league! Pinchin' pennies and using coupons is how I roll.

 
FUBAR said:
LawFitz said:
CaptainHook said:
I love playing with guys like you.

Being a 'go getta' is nothing more than foolish arrogance.
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Slow down there bucko. You may call it foolish arrogance. I call it building a team with guys I want to root for and am high on.In the end, if I land 3-4 guys I wanted and it effectively costs me let's say my 6th round selection (b/c I draft everyone after rd 5 one round too early) then so be it. I see it as trading my 6th round guy plus the guys I wouldn't have wanted in the later rounds for the guys I did want.

Maybe it's because I play in a 10-team league w/15 roster spots but I'd rather swing for the fences in the latter part of the draft with guys I want (and then rebuild via the waiver wire if I have to later) than take the mediocre 2nd and 3rd tier guys who "fall" into my lap in late rounds.

Sometimes value emerges in the form of a guy you like and respect who falls (like Anquan for the poster above), but most of the time it's a guy you aren't really high on but consensus tells you is a good deal at that spot. I'm out on those guys.
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I think this is a key. In redrafts the smaller the league the more I feel you need to swing for the fences. In large leagues with large lineups, the surer things that are good values are usually a better way to win.
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Ya. I wasn't thinking a 10 team league at all.I agree that does change things.

 
Pastor said:
It sounds like to me "Go Getta" just means take the highest ranked player on your board. Even if it is a little different than anyone else's. I agree. Everyone should be a go getta, unless they are sure they can get them a round later or cheaper.
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I think it's more to do with the strategy that you don't play the odds and flirt with the possibility that a guy will be there your next turn even if ADP says he will.
 
I'm a go getta in dynasty but a value shopper in redraft.
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Exactly. Building value in redraft is key so that after week 7 or 8 you have the depth to make targeted trades for upgraded talent. Dynasty is different; if you spot a guy you think could be a great one then price should be no consideration to land him on your team. For example, folks that broke the bank to land the #1 overall 2 years ago likely have one of the strongest rosters in their leagues due to landing Peterson (regardless of who else is around him). Not every guess will be correct, and whiffing on the wrong guy (tons of folks took Cadillac over Brown) can mean a few years of pain. But if you have belief that a player can be special, its almost criminal to not at least TRY to get him on your squad.
 
I've had very good "go getta" results in redraft. Sometimes it blows up in your face and sometimes it pays off. Last year I really, really wanted Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald on my team and I took them before other guys that I "should" have taken. I mean, can you win when you go WR-QB in your draft? Yes, you can. But several years earlier I took Eddie George and left some guy named Priest Holmes out there. But at least I got "my" guys and I'll win or lose with them.

In week 16 nobody cares that you "reached" for a guy and nobody remembers what round your starters were taken.

 
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Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I've had very good "go getta" results in redraft. Sometimes it blows up in your face and sometimes it pays off. Last year I really, really wanted Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald on my team and I took them before other guys that I "should" have taken. I mean, can you win when you go WR-QB in your draft? Yes, you can. But several years earlier I took Eddie George and left some guy named Priest Holmes out there. But at least I got "my" guys and I'll win or lose with them.

In week 16 nobody cares that you "reached" for a guy and nobody remembers what round your starters were taken.
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That's the key. Go with the guys you want. If you succeed or fail, you have no one to blame/be happy with but you. You can be a VBD and still go with your guys - if you put together the rankings or at least adjusted them yourself. I think even VBD-types have favorites that they move up their boards a bit.
 
DoubleG said:
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I've had very good "go getta" results in redraft. Sometimes it blows up in your face and sometimes it pays off. Last year I really, really wanted Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald on my team and I took them before other guys that I "should" have taken. I mean, can you win when you go WR-QB in your draft? Yes, you can. But several years earlier I took Eddie George and left some guy named Priest Holmes out there. But at least I got "my" guys and I'll win or lose with them.

In week 16 nobody cares that you "reached" for a guy and nobody remembers what round your starters were taken.
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That's the key. Go with the guys you want. If you succeed or fail, you have no one to blame/be happy with but you. You can be a VBD and still go with your guys - if you put together the rankings or at least adjusted them yourself. I think even VBD-types have favorites that they move up their boards a bit.
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:confused: My version of VBD (and I assume others) isn't blindly following ADP and taking the highest ranked guy in other drafts. It's taking the highest guy on my board which I made therefore my preferred players are already higher.
 
dmac37 said:
First off have your league go to an auction league and your options are much easier to work with.I pick a few players that I will pay extra for and go get em. If the price goes too high I will always have other options and wait and see who the value is. I prefer auction because every player is an option and your not forced to think is it too early to grab the guy you really want, also like the strategy aspect of it.
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I have yet to figure out the whole auction thing. No quicker path for me to the cellar than to start with an auction ...
 
dirty_martini said:
dmac37 said:
First off have your league go to an auction league and your options are much easier to work with.I pick a few players that I will pay extra for and go get em. If the price goes too high I will always have other options and wait and see who the value is. I prefer auction because every player is an option and your not forced to think is it too early to grab the guy you really want, also like the strategy aspect of it.
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I have yet to figure out the whole auction thing. No quicker path for me to the cellar than to start with an auction ...
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Auctions are more difficult than a serpentine draft, but they allow you to draft any set of players you can afford, thus opening up the freedom to be a value player, a 2 studs and the rest value player, or a "go-getter". With the auction you are not forced to follow the board at your draft pick.I tried value for a few years and ended up with deep teams full of value players that overachieved relative to their draft expectations. These teams usually were borderline playoff teams but not much more unless I managed to trade the depth when others got injured. So I've moved to a plan with targeted tiers of players (players I rank within 16 FP of each other), and play go-getter when the tier is small, and value when the tier is big.
 
I love drafting in almost any type of league, but I have to agree that auction leagues are some of the most enjoyable when it comes to selecting players. I would agree with stickboy's options with draft strategies. It's a lot like poker.

1. You can play loose (aggressive with a few players in terms of price that you think will be dominant at their position and go for low-priced options that hopefully pan out - I love this style).

2. Tight play: wait until every other player has spent enough money that you have a significant monetary advantage over the field for enough picks that you can select the players you want that are left from the field and usually dominate the late rounds as well. I've competed with David Dodds enough in these leagues to tell you he loves this style of play.)

3. Moderate: This covers a lot of territory strategy-wise. Some players I know, like George Del Prado, former owner of fantasyauctioneer.com, likes to take the moderate route. He loves to spend his money on at least two stud receivers and a runner, but he always manages to budget his dough well enough to get a mid-tier No. 1 QB with promise to be more (like a McNabb), and a two RBs you wouldn't feel ashamed of.

Of the three approaches, I've personally found that Loose and Moderate play field the most contenders in auction leagues where you are playing with guys who really have a good bead on player talent, because there's a difference between knowing the "street value" of a player (ADP) and what you really know what that player is capable. Competitive leagues have more players who know the street value, but don't draft strictly by it. This is why I think in the most competitive leagues, a tight approach isn't as consistently successful in auction leagues .

In serpentine drafts, tight (value) play is really the safest, because I think people fall in line a bit more just to the pace and structure of the draft. It's like that scene in the movie Dead Poet's Society where Robin Williams has the kids walk the courtyard and within 10 seconds they are all conforming to a specific pace and style of walking. I think serpentine drafts can suck people into that same type of thing....

This is why in the past couple of seasons I've really been interested in exploring more aggressive, "high-risk" strategies. As I mentioned earlier, I'm writing a high-risk strategy series in my Gut Check columns. I'm basing these on 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 K serpentine leagues.

Part 1 Targeting Sleeper RBs: This is a high-risk approach where you ignore most of the RBs projected in the top-24 and target guys right now with ADPs in rounds 6-10 about a 1-3 rounds earlier than this "street value". I'll discuss which RBs I think are great candidates for this approach. If you are successful, you should be able to acquire three top-12 quality WRs, and at least an elite TE or elite QB (if not both). I display three different mocks where the teams are not even using the typical Stud RB opening with one of the teams using this approach.

Part 2 Drafting to Avoid the "ADP pace" that I described with the move reference or "Drafting like you're in an auction when everyone else is drafting serpentine." (Kind of like the fox in the henhouse): While projections are very important, I discuss how you can select players based on specific prerequisites that narrow your draft list of eligible players to choose from (the risk), but it also creates and different "ADP Pace" to follow that if you use the right kind of prerequisites you find yourself drafting with the mentality of an auction drafter with everyone else waiting for players to drop. If you have a good bead on player talent and situation, this can be an enormously successful approach.

I'll still considering other options for parts three and four, but I'm thinking one of them will be focused on drafting by looking at quality games-consistency or performance and using an AVT-based method to project consistency.

 
Simply taking your own highest ranked player on the board and ignoring ADP and your own leaguemates tendencies can leave a ton of value on the board.

Say it is the fourth round and it is my pick. The next two guys on my board are Player A and Player B. My ranking have Player B, who is normally taken in the 8th round, ranked slightly ahead of Player A, who is normally taken in the 4th round. If being a "go getta" means drafting Player B, I disagree completely.

Player A won't be there for me in the 5th. Player B likely will. The value is in getting both. If somebody else grabs my guy before I do in the 5th, I only lose a little, but the opportunity for gain by approaching it this way is much higher.

 
LawFitz said:
Some guys like to "let the draft come to them." They don't believe in targeting players because they like the flexibility of a higher ranked player falling and then grabbing him. So they go into draft with few targets and just fall into value shopper mode.I, on the other hand am a go getta. I like to target guys that I like and then grab them a round or even two before their consensus ADP. I've found in the past when I passed on my target and instead took the value guy that fell, I've been burned more often than not. Sometimes guys fall unjustifiably and become true value plays. Other times they fall because, well, they're just not as good as you thought they were.Lawerence Maroney was an example of this for me just last year. I was sitting in the sixth round and had my targets set on Roddy White. But when Maroney fell into my lap I just couldn't resist. I mean he had such a great end of season and looked to be the starter on the juggernaut Pats, how could I not pick him? I had him slotted as a 3-4th rounder and yet here he was in rd 6. Well he busted royally and the guy I originally slotted into that pick had a break out year. I have had plenty of examples of this over the years with much fewer examples of value guys that panned out.So this year, I'm throwing sheets to the wind and taking my targets no matter who else falls. Guys like Pip Rivers, Ray Rice, Pitt D, Percy Harvin, Michael Bush and Chris Henry will be on my squad even if I have to reach for all of them. Now I'm not taking these guys 4 or 5 rounds ahead of ADP, but 1 or 2 rounds, yes. Probably. I'll add two stud WRs in the first two rounds and Ryan Grant and Ocho Cinco in Rds four and five and hopefully DMC and McGahee if possible and off we go.Am I crazy? A lil. Is this VBD consistent? Nope. But I'd rather win or lose with my guys than with someone else's bums. I find the game much funner that way.
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You're not crazy but you can't let 1 example of things not going your way affect your decision making too much. Last year during my rookie draft I had picks 4 and 9, and I tried unsuccessfully to move up in the draft. I got "stuck" taking Matt Forte and Steve Slaton, the guys I had rated the highest when it was my turn to pick. Does this mean it is always best to draft for value? Not necessarily. But it shows just because you got screwed over one time doesn't mean that will always be the case.
 
Waldman, would love to see that article on AVT. It hasn't been discussed here much in the 3+ years I've been with FBG but I've done a lot of reading up on it and am curious what your take on it is. I still love/use the staff projections for PD/DD but am curious to see what your unique opinions will give us.

Great addition to FBG so far Matt. Keep it up!

 
Thanks TheHosers,

I know there are folks who enjoy the Crank Scores I've employed in the past and I want to see if I can develop and AVT system for them that provide some sort of projection method for it.

 
Matt Waldman said:
Thanks TheHosers,I know there are folks who enjoy the Crank Scores I've employed in the past and I want to see if I can develop and AVT system for them that provide some sort of projection method for it.
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That sounds interesting. Theres a few other guys around here who swear by AVT for the basis of their projections. Not the way I do things but that method has merit as well.Some good points about being more of a go getter in dynasty also. When your planning to own a player for multiple years makes it a little more important to get the guys you like moreso than in a redraft league.7 years ago or whenever it was I sacrificed a early pick just so I could move up and take Randy Moss who was slipping in the 2nd round. This move did hurt me a bit in the 1st year (mainly because of sacrificed 3rd round pick) but I was able to start with both LT and Moss who I considered clearly #1 at their positions. This ultimatly has been a big advantage for me and Moss may have been more expensive to trade for later. At least that was my thinking at the time (he went to Oakland and was a buy low later).
 
it might sound cliche but you do need to know your owners. in my prize league it is definately not by the book we do specialized scoring, and while the QB is not set up to be the best value. i can guarantee you that if you have say the 4th pick or so you need to be prepared to settle for your QB. becuase romo, manning, brady, brees, and maybe mcnabb with a possibility of palmer or someone of relative value. will likely be gone by the time you go to draft again in the 2nd. last year was not as bad only 4 QBs were taken in the first round. a few years ago we had 7 QBs chosen in the first 18 picks. as the rounds progress the different people specialize and it becomes rather competitive to get the guy you need.

so definately have a plan it may make you rigid but you will have a good team that will be competitve. i like to try and slot 3 or 4 guys and 2 positions for a pick for my plans. it keeps things open enough to roll with the draft but keeps you on track so things develop a way you want.

yes rankings do become rather contagious but i do need to look at them so i can get an idea of where most rank guys, because i can get very focused on certain guys. i have developped a solid style that has gotten me to the super bowl last year, and the conference final the year before. having a plan is very much advised.

 
Futeki said:
Simply taking your own highest ranked player on the board and ignoring ADP and your own leaguemates tendencies can leave a ton of value on the board.

Say it is the fourth round and it is my pick. The next two guys on my board are Player A and Player B. My ranking have Player B, who is normally taken in the 8th round, ranked slightly ahead of Player A, who is normally taken in the 4th round. If being a "go getta" means drafting Player B, I disagree completely.

Player A won't be there for me in the 5th. Player B likely will. The value is in getting both. If somebody else grabs my guy before I do in the 5th, I only lose a little, but the opportunity for gain by approaching it this way is much higher.
Click to expand...
If you think Player B is going to outscore Player A, and you take Player A, it's the kind of move that you kick yourself about all year long, especially if Player B performs as you expect. Look, there's example of both. I have waited on my sleeper guys, and taken lesser players early, because I knew I could get my guy later. I have also gotten burned, and seen those sleepers go right before I was planning on taking them. I still remember losing out on Isaac Bruce the first year he blew up, in one of my first years playing FF. I was soooo sure no one else was even thinking about him, that I was taking higher-ranked players that I was sure were going to score less than him. I got greedy, and it killed me.

I admire Go-Getters, and I love the owners that stick to the ADP. Yeah, they might be getting value, but they are also predictable. That's one thing that I haven't really seen mentioned here, the Value Shopper is predictable, and that's a massive advantage for other owners. If I am picking 2nd, and the guy picking 1st is a Value Shopper, I can pretty much predict the RB and WR he will take at the 2/3 turn. That's a big advantage, and maybe I wait on a player till after the turn because I know the Value Shopper won't take him.

 
Matt Waldman said:
Thanks TheHosers,I know there are folks who enjoy the Crank Scores I've employed in the past and I want to see if I can develop and AVT system for them that provide some sort of projection method for it.
Click to expand...
Matt,I'm very interested also, and would like a pointer to the Crank Scores please.I use AVT for auction budgeting, on average it shows what tiers on the various player point curves will be worth. It allows me to optimize around point expectations for various budget scenarios. The biggest issues are a) it does not take into account volatility of the points, and b) it assumes that we can reasonably match this year's projections to the same averages. Tiering helps with both of these, as you can generalize about parts of the curves.
 
stickboy said:
Matt Waldman said:
Thanks TheHosers,I know there are folks who enjoy the Crank Scores I've employed in the past and I want to see if I can develop and AVT system for them that provide some sort of projection method for it.
Click to expand...
Matt,I'm very interested also, and would like a pointer to the Crank Scores please.I use AVT for auction budgeting, on average it shows what tiers on the various player point curves will be worth. It allows me to optimize around point expectations for various budget scenarios. The biggest issues are a) it does not take into account volatility of the points, and b) it assumes that we can reasonably match this year's projections to the same averages. Tiering helps with both of these, as you can generalize about parts of the curves.
Click to expand...
Just stay tuned to my Gut Check columns that appear on the home page and articles section on a weekly basis. I'll be writing about these concepts there.
 
I usually go into each draft with a list of 4-6 "must have" players. If I can get most of them, I feel like I'm set. After the first 5 or 6 rounds, I just let the draft come to me and draft the best value plays per my tiers.

I don't see how you can have a list of 25 "must have" targets. Hell, that's a full roster. :goodposting:

 
I'll also add that my draft slot has a lot to do with how I draft. If I'm, at the end of the draft, I'll definitely go after my targetted players. Whereas, if I'm in the middle, I feel like there is so much value dropping to me that I just load up and don't worry as much about my targetted players. Many times they fall to me anyway.

 
Futeki said:
Simply taking your own highest ranked player on the board and ignoring ADP and your own leaguemates tendencies can leave a ton of value on the board.Say it is the fourth round and it is my pick. The next two guys on my board are Player A and Player B. My ranking have Player B, who is normally taken in the 8th round, ranked slightly ahead of Player A, who is normally taken in the 4th round. If being a "go getta" means drafting Player B, I disagree completely.Player A won't be there for me in the 5th. Player B likely will. The value is in getting both. If somebody else grabs my guy before I do in the 5th, I only lose a little, but the opportunity for gain by approaching it this way is much higher.
Click to expand...
Very :goodposting: This approach maximizes your chances of stocking your team with true value picks - both in terms of the prevailing trends in fantasy rankings and your own undervalued/sleeper picks. I always start my own draft preparations by making my own VBD sheet, but I then study large samples (and I can't emphasize how important that large sample point is) of ADP mock draft sites to know when I would need to target the players I want. For the actual draft, I'm using a printed version of ADP figures that includes the earliest a player has been selected (which most sites list) and standard deviations for when each player was drafted (which some sites have, some unfortunately do not). The more I want a certain player, the more likely I am to take him earlier than his ADP. In some rare cases, I might even make it a point to take a highly coveted player before his earliest selected round in any of the mock drafts on my ADP sheet, although in that case it would have to be a player I was really determined to have on my team. Is this method absolutely fool proof? No, but guess what? No draft method is. This simply uses the probabilities of when players are likely to be taken to your advantage and it means that more often than not you will end up with a team stocked with players you really wanted without swinging for the fences too early and blowing your chances at also getting some more conventional (i.e. "safer") draft selections.
 
Futeki said:
Simply taking your own highest ranked player on the board and ignoring ADP and your own leaguemates tendencies can leave a ton of value on the board.Say it is the fourth round and it is my pick. The next two guys on my board are Player A and Player B. My ranking have Player B, who is normally taken in the 8th round, ranked slightly ahead of Player A, who is normally taken in the 4th round. If being a "go getta" means drafting Player B, I disagree completely.Player A won't be there for me in the 5th. Player B likely will. The value is in getting both. If somebody else grabs my guy before I do in the 5th, I only lose a little, but the opportunity for gain by approaching it this way is much higher.
Click to expand...
Exactly. I will reach if I'm on the end of a snake draft and I have to grab someone a round/ round and a half early who I REALLY like and I know won't make it back. You do have to know your league mates tendancies.
 
Matt Waldman said:
stickboy said:
Matt Waldman said:
Thanks TheHosers,

I know there are folks who enjoy the Crank Scores I've employed in the past and I want to see if I can develop and AVT system for them that provide some sort of projection method for it.
Click to expand...
Matt,I'm very interested also, and would like a pointer to the Crank Scores please.

I use AVT for auction budgeting, on average it shows what tiers on the various player point curves will be worth. It allows me to optimize around point expectations for various budget scenarios. The biggest issues are a) it does not take into account volatility of the points, and b) it assumes that we can reasonably match this year's projections to the same averages. Tiering helps with both of these, as you can generalize about parts of the curves.
Click to expand...
Just stay tuned to my Gut Check columns that appear on the home page and articles section on a weekly basis. I'll be writing about these concepts there.
Click to expand...
Maximizing RB Sleepers-Part I of My High-Risk Draft Series
 
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