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How to equate a players value from dynasty rookie draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ssg paul
- Start date
Roughly
First round pick of bad team = Top 50-60 player (top 25 RBs, top 20-25 WRs, top 3-5 QBs and TEs)
First round pick of ok team, but one unlikely to make playoffs = Top 60-90 player (next 10-12 RBs, 10-12 WRs, and next 2-3 TEs and QBs)
First round pick of good team = Top 90-150 player (last tier of startable WRs ( mediocre aging vets, #2's on their team) RBBC Rbs, solid, but not elite QBs and TEs)
Second round picks = vets who are decent spot starters, but on the wrong side of their career years, decent players with temporary value (in for injured starter)
Third round picks = handcuffs
First round pick of bad team = Top 50-60 player (top 25 RBs, top 20-25 WRs, top 3-5 QBs and TEs)
First round pick of ok team, but one unlikely to make playoffs = Top 60-90 player (next 10-12 RBs, 10-12 WRs, and next 2-3 TEs and QBs)
First round pick of good team = Top 90-150 player (last tier of startable WRs ( mediocre aging vets, #2's on their team) RBBC Rbs, solid, but not elite QBs and TEs)
Second round picks = vets who are decent spot starters, but on the wrong side of their career years, decent players with temporary value (in for injured starter)
Third round picks = handcuffs
Last edited by a moderator:
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
To explain how I would do this:
1. Download the dynasty calculator linked above. LINK.
2. Answer the easy questions to get your league's dynasty factor, or DF.
3. Plug in the best guess as to what the pick will be (say pick 10) in the calculator. You'll get a modified pick value (that is Dynasty Pick 10 won't equal a Redraft Pick 10 - it will be much lower value).
4. Use Dodds' calculator to figure out what pick in a redraft league that equals out to be. Use that answer to gauge the player in question's value (the vet). I'd compare his ADP to that pick value.
You can also do either method first (Step 4 ahead of Steps 1-3).
For example, let's say you are looking at Deuce McAllister vs. a First or second round pick next year.
Deuce's ADP was about 6.07, or 67. Plugging that in the the Redraft Calculator gives a value of 428.
For an average Dynasty League with a DF around 3.5 (the default is roughly that), Pick 14 overall in a rookie draft is 433 points.
That's about your answer.
1. Download the dynasty calculator linked above. LINK.
2. Answer the easy questions to get your league's dynasty factor, or DF.
3. Plug in the best guess as to what the pick will be (say pick 10) in the calculator. You'll get a modified pick value (that is Dynasty Pick 10 won't equal a Redraft Pick 10 - it will be much lower value).
4. Use Dodds' calculator to figure out what pick in a redraft league that equals out to be. Use that answer to gauge the player in question's value (the vet). I'd compare his ADP to that pick value.
You can also do either method first (Step 4 ahead of Steps 1-3).
For example, let's say you are looking at Deuce McAllister vs. a First or second round pick next year.
Deuce's ADP was about 6.07, or 67. Plugging that in the the Redraft Calculator gives a value of 428.
For an average Dynasty League with a DF around 3.5 (the default is roughly that), Pick 14 overall in a rookie draft is 433 points.
That's about your answer.
coolnerd
Footballguy
I think bloom and jeff have given you strong tools to work with in a tangible sense. Some thing that may be more intangible you need to manage:
1- players whose value is really uncertain. In recent weeks I have gotten trade offers for Cedric Benson and Randy Moss in different league. Both of these players have values that are all over the place. You need to nail down not only what you think of thses guys, but what others do.
2- the make-up of team you are trading with. Example. If you are trading with a guy who has no or limited youth in his backfield, the chances of his taking a veteran of your hands is much lower. Tons of other examples possible.
3- value of players in the NFL draft. In years where there are clear dynamic choices the pick value goes up. If the draft is considered deep some picks go down in value (closer to 1), but others go up in value (later in the round even 2nd rounders).
I am sure there are other non-measurable factors, but I want to add some ideas to stuff already in this thread.
1- players whose value is really uncertain. In recent weeks I have gotten trade offers for Cedric Benson and Randy Moss in different league. Both of these players have values that are all over the place. You need to nail down not only what you think of thses guys, but what others do.
2- the make-up of team you are trading with. Example. If you are trading with a guy who has no or limited youth in his backfield, the chances of his taking a veteran of your hands is much lower. Tons of other examples possible.
3- value of players in the NFL draft. In years where there are clear dynamic choices the pick value goes up. If the draft is considered deep some picks go down in value (closer to 1), but others go up in value (later in the round even 2nd rounders).
I am sure there are other non-measurable factors, but I want to add some ideas to stuff already in this thread.
