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Do you really believe Kurt Warner will make it all 16 games again? (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
One thing I see a lot of so far and it tends to be like this every April/May are the projections we start to see. I realize you cannot predict injuries...or can you? We tend to always give guys like LT and Portis a full 16 game schedule and sometimes deduct a few points for guys like Westbrook. When I look at the top5 QBs on most folks boards right now it reads Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers(ouch) and Kurt Warner. I love the Cards passing game but I have a few reservations about the team and the offense, and I also worry about Warner making it all year.

Warner is going to turn 38 years old in June...that may not mean a lot to most of you but it is rare that a QB can be highly effective at that age for an entire season. Yes we saw Favre do it but IMO there is a big difference between these 2 QBs and quite honestly I am not sure I see Warner going into the HoF the same time Favre is going to be put in, but that's a different thread all together.

So Warner has a very accomplished resume including 4 Pro Bowls, 2 All Pros, 3 SUper Bowl appearances over 2 teams and 1 ring. How many times has actually started all 16 games in a season? TWICE!!! 1999 and 2008. And that means he has never had 2 full seasons back to back. in fact I would almsot bet money that Leinart is going to see action this year. What does any of this mean?

Is Warner worth a top5 pick if he only starts 11 games? How many games does he need to start for that high of a pick to be made? I absolutely am in line with anyone that says he will out produce on a per game basis with guys that can be had 4-5 rounds later, you don't have to sell me on that idea I totallly get it.

Is there anything that we as owners can do? I guess you could cross him off your list but at the same time when he is starting and with the talent he has at his disposal at WR, Warner could easily have a bunch of weeks where he passes Brees and Brady for points per week.

The flipside is where does Leinart become value? Would you draft him late even if you did not have Warner? I have seen Warner owners not even blink by passing Leinart up completely. Has Matt learned anything sitting behind Warner for the better part of the last 1.5 seasons?

I would enjoy reading some thoughts and opinions on this, thanks guys/gals.

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
One thing I see a lot of so far and it tends to be like this every April/May are the projections we start to see. I realize you cannot predict injuries...or can you? We tend to always give guys like LT and Portis a full 16 game schedule and sometimes deduct a few points for guys like Westbrook. When I look at the top5 QBs on most folks boards right now it reads Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers(ouch) and Kurt Warner. I love the Cards passing game but I have a few reservations about the team and the offense, and I also worry about Warner making it all year. Warner is going to turn 38 years old in June...that may not mean a lot to most of you but it is rare that a QB can be highly effective at that age for an entire season. Yes we saw Favre do it but IMO there is a big difference between these 2 QBs and quite honestly I am not sure I see Warner going into the HoF the same time Favre is going to be put in, but that's a different thread all together. So Warner has a very accomplished resume including 4 Pro Bowls, 2 All Pros, 3 SUper Bowl appearances over 2 teams and 1 ring. How many times has actually started all 16 games in a season? TWICE!!! 1999 and 2008. And that means he has never had 2 full seasons back to back. in fact I would almsot bet money that Leinart is going to see action this year. What does any of this mean? Is Warner worth a top5 pick if he only starts 11 games? How many games does he need to start for that high of a pick to be made? I absolutely am in line with anyone that says he will out produce on a per game basis with guys that can be had 4-5 rounds later, you don't have to sell me on that idea I totallly get it. Is there anything that we as owners can do? I guess you could cross him off your list but at the same time when he is starting and with the talent he has at his disposal at WR, Warner could easily have a bunch of weeks where he passes Brees and Brady for points per week. The flipside is where does Leinart become value? Would you draft him late even if you did not have Warner? I have seen Warner owners not even blink by passing Leinart up completely. Has Matt learned anything sitting behind Warner for the better part of the last 1.5 seasons? I would enjoy reading some thoughts and opinions on this, thanks guys/gals.
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Great topic. Just looking at the facts would tell you it's borderline absurd to expect Warner to make it all 16 games. BTW, Warner started all 16 games in 3 seasons (not 2 seasons): 1999, 2001, 2008. The real question is, if Warner only plays in ~10 games, is he still worth a high pick? He throws for a boatload of yards and TDs, ~280 yards per game and almost 2 TDs per game for his career. His averages aren't down dramatically in Arizona and he continues to play at a high level.I'd still rather have Manning, Brees, Brady, maybe a few other guys (e.g., Rivers) based on ability to stay healthy.
 
Michael Fox said:
Ministry of Pain said:
One thing I see a lot of so far and it tends to be like this every April/May are the projections we start to see. I realize you cannot predict injuries...or can you? We tend to always give guys like LT and Portis a full 16 game schedule and sometimes deduct a few points for guys like Westbrook. When I look at the top5 QBs on most folks boards right now it reads Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers(ouch) and Kurt Warner. I love the Cards passing game but I have a few reservations about the team and the offense, and I also worry about Warner making it all year. Warner is going to turn 38 years old in June...that may not mean a lot to most of you but it is rare that a QB can be highly effective at that age for an entire season. Yes we saw Favre do it but IMO there is a big difference between these 2 QBs and quite honestly I am not sure I see Warner going into the HoF the same time Favre is going to be put in, but that's a different thread all together. So Warner has a very accomplished resume including 4 Pro Bowls, 2 All Pros, 3 SUper Bowl appearances over 2 teams and 1 ring. How many times has actually started all 16 games in a season? TWICE!!! 1999 and 2008. And that means he has never had 2 full seasons back to back. in fact I would almsot bet money that Leinart is going to see action this year. What does any of this mean? Is Warner worth a top5 pick if he only starts 11 games? How many games does he need to start for that high of a pick to be made? I absolutely am in line with anyone that says he will out produce on a per game basis with guys that can be had 4-5 rounds later, you don't have to sell me on that idea I totallly get it. Is there anything that we as owners can do? I guess you could cross him off your list but at the same time when he is starting and with the talent he has at his disposal at WR, Warner could easily have a bunch of weeks where he passes Brees and Brady for points per week. The flipside is where does Leinart become value? Would you draft him late even if you did not have Warner? I have seen Warner owners not even blink by passing Leinart up completely. Has Matt learned anything sitting behind Warner for the better part of the last 1.5 seasons? I would enjoy reading some thoughts and opinions on this, thanks guys/gals.
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Great topic. Just looking at the facts would tell you it's borderline absurd to expect Warner to make it all 16 games. BTW, Warner started all 16 games in 3 seasons (not 2 seasons): 1999, 2001, 2008. The real question is, if Warner only plays in ~10 games, is he still worth a high pick? He throws for a boatload of yards and TDs, ~280 yards per game and almost 2 TDs per game for his career. His averages aren't down dramatically in Arizona and he continues to play at a high level.I'd still rather have Manning, Brees, Brady, maybe a few other guys (e.g., Rivers) based on ability to stay healthy.
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Good point Michael and in 2001 they went to the SB as well...so if he plays all 16 games I guess the Cards make a return trip to the SB(cough cough).
 
A history of less than full seasons isn't a reason to discount a great player. It's a reason to take your selection of your second string guy more seriously. Every player is susceptible to injury. I see no reason to assume Warner is more susceptible to the particular type of injury that makes him really, truly "questionable" on any given week. That's the only real worry. Otherwise, you take him assuming he'll start 13 or so games, and that you'll know far enough ahead of time to make a starting decision each week which 13 they'll be. The other three weeks, you start your other guy and you assume that the 16 game cumulative numbers will make your QB slot as valuable as possible.

On Leinart, we've seen nothing out of him in several years that would suggest he'll do anything but blow, no matter how stellar the surrounding talent. What have you heard or seen this offeseason to change that perception?

 
Scotch Rocks said:
A history of less than full seasons isn't a reason to discount a great player. It's a reason to take your selection of your second string guy more seriously. Every player is susceptible to injury. I see no reason to assume Warner is more susceptible to the particular type of injury that makes him really, truly "questionable" on any given week. That's the only real worry. Otherwise, you take him assuming he'll start 13 or so games, and that you'll know far enough ahead of time to make a starting decision each week which 13 they'll be. The other three weeks, you start your other guy and you assume that the 16 game cumulative numbers will make your QB slot as valuable as possible.On Leinart, we've seen nothing out of him in several years that would suggest he'll do anything but blow, no matter how stellar the surrounding talent. What have you heard or seen this offeseason to change that perception?
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:excited: SO if you have to take Warner in the 3rd...you need a good QB2 in the 6th-8th? I guess the question is what do you sacrifice at other spots by having to dip early for your QB2 vs a guy like Brees where you can almost wait to the very end based on his helth year in year out. You make a good point though that maybe no player is really immune and that even if we assume the best we need to start plan B at QB a little earlier.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Scotch Rocks said:
A history of less than full seasons isn't a reason to discount a great player. It's a reason to take your selection of your second string guy more seriously. Every player is susceptible to injury. I see no reason to assume Warner is more susceptible to the particular type of injury that makes him really, truly "questionable" on any given week. That's the only real worry. Otherwise, you take him assuming he'll start 13 or so games, and that you'll know far enough ahead of time to make a starting decision each week which 13 they'll be. The other three weeks, you start your other guy and you assume that the 16 game cumulative numbers will make your QB slot as valuable as possible.On Leinart, we've seen nothing out of him in several years that would suggest he'll do anything but blow, no matter how stellar the surrounding talent. What have you heard or seen this offeseason to change that perception?
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:lmao: SO if you have to take Warner in the 3rd...you need a good QB2 in the 6th-8th? I guess the question is what do you sacrifice at other spots by having to dip early for your QB2 vs a guy like Brees where you can almost wait to the very end based on his helth year in year out. You make a good point though that maybe no player is really immune and that even if we assume the best we need to start plan B at QB a little earlier.
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ADP has him going between 23 and 58, with ADP of 38.... he's probably a 4th rounder. I would be comfortable taking him in the 4th after 3 WR/RBs. There are a pretty good number of solid QB2s out there in the 7th and later.I'd rather have McNabb in the 6th, or Schaub and/or Palmer in a QBBC a little later. But Warner was basically tied with Rodgers for QB2 through week 15 last year (he was pulled in week their week 16 game), about 1 ppg behind Brees. I agree that all QBs are injury risks, and I also agree that Warner is probably a bigger risk than other QBs. Above average risk, but very high reward.
 
Here's my Team Take on Warner earlier this offseason. He's bucking some long odds (historically speaking). THere's some great points above though. Even if you only get 8-10 games out of him. That's still a heckuva #1 QB for half the season. You just need to solidify your team QB earlier in your draft.

___

"Let me just throw this out there. The LOWEST projections above, (Rascon) would have Warner completing a feat that's been accomplished twice in the NFL in the last 40 years. That would be a 38+ year old QB tossing more than 25 touchdowns in a single season. (Brett Favre threw 28 TD's in 2007 and a 38 year old and Warren Moon threw 33 in 1995 as a 39 year old). NO OTHER 38 YEAR OLD QB HAS THROWN 26 OR MORE TOUCHDOWNS SINCE 1968. They say you can't predict injury. Well, in my humble opinion, at Warner's age I think you're on the wrong side of a coin-flip by thinking a 16 game season is in store. And NFL history is backing me up. Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."

 
FantasyTrader said:
Here's my Team Take on Warner earlier this offseason. He's bucking some long odds (historically speaking). THere's some great points above though. Even if you only get 8-10 games out of him. That's still a heckuva #1 QB for half the season. You just need to solidify your team QB earlier in your draft.

___

"Let me just throw this out there. The LOWEST projections above, (Rascon) would have Warner completing a feat that's been accomplished twice in the NFL in the last 40 years. That would be a 38+ year old QB tossing more than 25 touchdowns in a single season. (Brett Favre threw 28 TD's in 2007 and a 38 year old and Warren Moon threw 33 in 1995 as a 39 year old). NO OTHER 38 YEAR OLD QB HAS THROWN 26 OR MORE TOUCHDOWNS SINCE 1968. They say you can't predict injury. Well, in my humble opinion, at Warner's age I think you're on the wrong side of a coin-flip by thinking a 16 game season is in store. And NFL history is backing me up. Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."
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I'm not certain a 37 year old QB is more likely to throw 25+ TDs - I doubt there is any statistically significant sample.
 
msommer said:
FantasyTrader said:
Here's my Team Take on Warner earlier this offseason. He's bucking some long odds (historically speaking). THere's some great points above though. Even if you only get 8-10 games out of him. That's still a heckuva #1 QB for half the season. You just need to solidify your team QB earlier in your draft.

___

"Let me just throw this out there. The LOWEST projections above, (Rascon) would have Warner completing a feat that's been accomplished twice in the NFL in the last 40 years. That would be a 38+ year old QB tossing more than 25 touchdowns in a single season. (Brett Favre threw 28 TD's in 2007 and a 38 year old and Warren Moon threw 33 in 1995 as a 39 year old). NO OTHER 38 YEAR OLD QB HAS THROWN 26 OR MORE TOUCHDOWNS SINCE 1968. They say you can't predict injury. Well, in my humble opinion, at Warner's age I think you're on the wrong side of a coin-flip by thinking a 16 game season is in store. And NFL history is backing me up. Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."
Click to expand...
I'm not certain a 37 year old QB is more likely to throw 25+ TDs - I doubt there is any statistically significant sample.
Click to expand...
So... 12% of the QBs 38 or older played a full 16 games. Roughly 74 QBs saw time last year (I don't know how many were rostered that didn't play at all), 18 played in 16 games. That's at best 24%. Good luck getting any QB1 to play 16 games.

 
FUBAR said:
msommer said:
FantasyTrader said:
Here's my Team Take on Warner earlier this offseason. He's bucking some long odds (historically speaking). THere's some great points above though. Even if you only get 8-10 games out of him. That's still a heckuva #1 QB for half the season. You just need to solidify your team QB earlier in your draft.

___

"Let me just throw this out there. The LOWEST projections above, (Rascon) would have Warner completing a feat that's been accomplished twice in the NFL in the last 40 years. That would be a 38+ year old QB tossing more than 25 touchdowns in a single season. (Brett Favre threw 28 TD's in 2007 and a 38 year old and Warren Moon threw 33 in 1995 as a 39 year old). NO OTHER 38 YEAR OLD QB HAS THROWN 26 OR MORE TOUCHDOWNS SINCE 1968. They say you can't predict injury. Well, in my humble opinion, at Warner's age I think you're on the wrong side of a coin-flip by thinking a 16 game season is in store. And NFL history is backing me up. Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."
Click to expand...
I'm not certain a 37 year old QB is more likely to throw 25+ TDs - I doubt there is any statistically significant sample.
Click to expand...
So... 12% of the QBs 38 or older played a full 16 games. Roughly 74 QBs saw time last year (I don't know how many were rostered that didn't play at all), 18 played in 16 games. That's at best 24%. Good luck getting any QB1 to play 16 games.
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The huge majority of those 18 though, had (duh) ADP's in the top 25 QB's. And let's be honest, the top 25-30 is what we care about in the standard 12-team league. By including every QB that scored even a sliver of a FP, you're driving down the percentages.
 
Choke said:
Lott said:
I'd rather have McNabb in the 6th, or Schaub and/or Palmer in a QBBC a little later. But Warner was basically tied with Rodgers for QB2 through week 15 last year (he was pulled in week their week 16 game), about 1 ppg behind Brees. I agree that all QBs are injury risks, and I also agree that Warner is probably a bigger risk than other QBs. Above average risk, but very high reward.
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I dont think anyone is landing McNabb in the 6th. Maybe if you have the first or second pick and are very very lucky. But early-mid 5th is where he will go.*Provided that QBs score well in whatever method you are using.
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Regarding McNabb: His ADP is 58, with a range of 41 to 71. I don't disagree with your assessment that he'll be going in the 5th in a 12 team league, but it is league-dependent. Regarding Warner:
Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."
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I would be curious about this stat... how many of those 50 QBs were the starters? How many of those QBs didn't play in 16 games due to injury? And there is no magical age that QBs become brittle... what would the stat be for 37+ yr olds? 35+?I agree with the premise, that older Qbs are less likely than younger ones to stay healthy, but it's a case by case basis. If I draft Warner, I will have a solid backup. But I won't be drafting Warner at his ADP in a redraft league. I got him on the cheap in both my dynasty leagues before 2008 though. :sleep:
 
Regarding Warner:

Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."
Click to expand...
I would be curious about this stat... how many of those 50 QBs were the starters? How many of those QBs didn't play in 16 games due to injury? And there is no magical age that QBs become brittle... what would the stat be for 37+ yr olds? 35+?I agree with the premise, that older Qbs are less likely than younger ones to stay healthy, but it's a case by case basis. If I draft Warner, I will have a solid backup. But I won't be drafting Warner at his ADP in a redraft league. I got him on the cheap in both my dynasty leagues before 2008 though. :thumbup:
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Well it would stand to reason, we only care about the starters. I don't know what standard they used to determine "games played" in the historical dominator, but I'm assuming that it's games where the player accumulated a stat. As expected, the number of occurances rises dramatically for every age younger you add to the equation.For 36+ y.o. quarterbacks, there's 16 occurances of 16 games played since 1994.For 35+ y.o. quarterbacks, there's 50 "" "".
 
FantasyTrader said:
FUBAR said:
msommer said:
FantasyTrader said:
Here's my Team Take on Warner earlier this offseason. He's bucking some long odds (historically speaking). THere's some great points above though. Even if you only get 8-10 games out of him. That's still a heckuva #1 QB for half the season. You just need to solidify your team QB earlier in your draft.

___

"Let me just throw this out there. The LOWEST projections above, (Rascon) would have Warner completing a feat that's been accomplished twice in the NFL in the last 40 years. That would be a 38+ year old QB tossing more than 25 touchdowns in a single season. (Brett Favre threw 28 TD's in 2007 and a 38 year old and Warren Moon threw 33 in 1995 as a 39 year old). NO OTHER 38 YEAR OLD QB HAS THROWN 26 OR MORE TOUCHDOWNS SINCE 1968. They say you can't predict injury. Well, in my humble opinion, at Warner's age I think you're on the wrong side of a coin-flip by thinking a 16 game season is in store. And NFL history is backing me up. Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."
Click to expand...
I'm not certain a 37 year old QB is more likely to throw 25+ TDs - I doubt there is any statistically significant sample.
Click to expand...
So... 12% of the QBs 38 or older played a full 16 games. Roughly 74 QBs saw time last year (I don't know how many were rostered that didn't play at all), 18 played in 16 games. That's at best 24%. Good luck getting any QB1 to play 16 games.
Click to expand...
The huge majority of those 18 though, had (duh) ADP's in the top 25 QB's. And let's be honest, the top 25-30 is what we care about in the standard 12-team league. By including every QB that scored even a sliver of a FP, you're driving down the percentages.
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Sure, and by including every 38 year old QB you're also driving down the percentages. For example, Brad Johnson accounts for 3 of those 50 seasons. He was only the starter for one, at 38, when he played in 15 games. Vinny Testeverde accounts for 7 of them, IIRC he was only supposed to be the starter for two of them, in which he played 16 games in each. Favre had never missed a game despite being 38. Further, the vast majority of these QBs didn't have the personnel Warner does.

I won't be counting on Warner to play 16 games, but frankly, aside from Peyton, Brees and historically, Favre, I wouldn't / haven't counted on any QB to play all 16. I always draft a viable backup. MAYBE with Warner you'll want to draft your backup earlier than with Peyton, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, or Brady, but even with those guys you run the risk of destroying your season if you don't have a backup plan. Brady showed that last year (unless you were lucky to get Cassel)

 
I would be shocked...which is why Leinart is an excellent stash in deep leagues.

I've been saying it for years, Leinart is going to make an impact eventually, it's just a matter of when.

 
LHUCKS said:
I would be shocked...which is why Leinart is an excellent stash in deep leagues. I've been saying it for years, Leinart is going to make an impact eventually, it's just a matter of when.
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An impact on a fantasy defense? I swear I think the kid was one of the worst starters in the league after seeing him play at the pro level. I had high hopes for him, loved him at USC, but it's just not happening.
 
FUBAR said:
FantasyTrader said:
FUBAR said:
msommer said:
FantasyTrader said:
Here's my Team Take on Warner earlier this offseason. He's bucking some long odds (historically speaking). THere's some great points above though. Even if you only get 8-10 games out of him. That's still a heckuva #1 QB for half the season. You just need to solidify your team QB earlier in your draft.

___

"Let me just throw this out there. The LOWEST projections above, (Rascon) would have Warner completing a feat that's been accomplished twice in the NFL in the last 40 years. That would be a 38+ year old QB tossing more than 25 touchdowns in a single season. (Brett Favre threw 28 TD's in 2007 and a 38 year old and Warren Moon threw 33 in 1995 as a 39 year old). NO OTHER 38 YEAR OLD QB HAS THROWN 26 OR MORE TOUCHDOWNS SINCE 1968. They say you can't predict injury. Well, in my humble opinion, at Warner's age I think you're on the wrong side of a coin-flip by thinking a 16 game season is in store. And NFL history is backing me up. Since 1994, there have been 50 total seasons played by QB's at 38+ years of age. And how many of them played a full 16 games? SIX! Six for 50. Go ahead and draft Warner as a #1 QB this year, I wish you the best of luck."
Click to expand...
I'm not certain a 37 year old QB is more likely to throw 25+ TDs - I doubt there is any statistically significant sample.
Click to expand...
So... 12% of the QBs 38 or older played a full 16 games. Roughly 74 QBs saw time last year (I don't know how many were rostered that didn't play at all), 18 played in 16 games. That's at best 24%. Good luck getting any QB1 to play 16 games.
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The huge majority of those 18 though, had (duh) ADP's in the top 25 QB's. And let's be honest, the top 25-30 is what we care about in the standard 12-team league. By including every QB that scored even a sliver of a FP, you're driving down the percentages.
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Sure, and by including every 38 year old QB you're also driving down the percentages.
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You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
 
FantasyTrader said:
FUBAR said:
Sure, and by including every 38 year old QB you're also driving down the percentages.
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You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
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Really? How about all 38 year old starting QBs, preferably who are as good as Warner. That pretty much just leaves Favre.
 
FUBAR said:
FantasyTrader said:
FUBAR said:
Sure, and by including every 38 year old QB you're also driving down the percentages.
Click to expand...
You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
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Really? How about all 38 year old starting QBs, preferably who are as good as Warner. That pretty much just leaves Favre.
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Warren Moon was pretty good.
 
Ultimate BOOM or BUST player this year in Dynasty leagues.

He can easily carry you to a title, or be worth a bag of rocks come December.

It is tough to predict injuries, but he was only sacked 26 times, and he "should" be able to have a more stable running game this year.

 
Count me as one who hasn't given up on Matt Leinart yet.

Sometimes sitting and watching for a while works out OK. Ask Aaron Rodgers, who looked pretty wretched early in his career.

 
This is where the power running game comes in. Beanie Wells was pretty much drafted to protect Warner. The less Warner drops back the less he can get hurt and the passing game more effective. They would rather lose an injury prone running back than an injury prone qb, no? Also consider if Warner gets injured. Leinart and a power running game takes the ball out of Leinart's hands. Also, do not doubt Tim Hightower. A consistent 3 to 4 yards per gain will win them games.

 
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thayman said:
FantasyTrader said:
You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
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Comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner is not an apples to apples comparison.
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Well now we're entering into a seperate discussion entirely. I simply threw out a stat that, in the last 40 years there have been two occurances of a 38+ year old QB thowing for 25+ TD's. And now you've taken that and twisted it into, I'm comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner? If you'd like to argue what's possible? Absolutely. I 100% agree that Warner can duplicate last year. I'm just looking at what's probable by factoring in historical stats.
 
FUBAR said:
FantasyTrader said:
FUBAR said:
Sure, and by including every 38 year old QB you're also driving down the percentages.
Click to expand...
You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
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Really? How about all 38 year old starting QBs, preferably who are as good as Warner. That pretty much just leaves Favre.
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And that's a good point by the way. I do agree, few have had Warner's blend of talent and supporting cast.
 
Jon_Moore said:
LHUCKS said:
I would be shocked...which is why Leinart is an excellent stash in deep leagues. I've been saying it for years, Leinart is going to make an impact eventually, it's just a matter of when.
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An impact on a fantasy defense? I swear I think the kid was one of the worst starters in the league after seeing him play at the pro level. I had high hopes for him, loved him at USC, but it's just not happening.
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This just isn't accurate.
 
As a Cards fan, I'm definitely not sold on Leinart, but I do like him as our backup. I also feel like he HAS to be getting better just by being behind Kurt and learning from him. I think he's finally maturing a bit, he's waiting his time behind Warner, and I think he can be a solid starter in the league. I understand he looked awful in pre-season last year, but I really do think that being behind a top notch QB will help him in the long run. Whether that is with the Cardinals or not, who knows. I know he doesnt have many more years left on his contract, and he wasnt drafted by the current coaching staff so I wouldnt be surprised to see him go at the end of his contract.

As for Warner, like someone said, he did not get sacked very many times last year. But he took a very large number of hits. I dont know if that is a stat that could be found somewhere, but I do think he would be in the top 10 of hits taken by a QB last year. This will be the third consecutive year that the o-line will be about the same so they should be very comfortable next to eachother and Grimm was promoted as the 'running game coordinator' which I would imagine would help in the long run. If they can just get a decent running game with Timmy and Beenie, it is going to take so much pressure off of the passing attack and Kurt will likely take less hits.

Who knows if Kurt gets injured or not, but in my Dynasty league that just drafted, I grabbed him in the 10th round as my #2 QB and I am way more then satisfied.

 
LHUCKS said:
Jon_Moore said:
LHUCKS said:
I would be shocked...which is why Leinart is an excellent stash in deep leagues. I've been saying it for years, Leinart is going to make an impact eventually, it's just a matter of when.
Click to expand...
An impact on a fantasy defense? I swear I think the kid was one of the worst starters in the league after seeing him play at the pro level. I had high hopes for him, loved him at USC, but it's just not happening.
Click to expand...
This just isn't accurate.
Click to expand...
51.7% isn't accurate.
 
Jon_Moore said:
LHUCKS said:
Jon_Moore said:
LHUCKS said:
I would be shocked...which is why Leinart is an excellent stash in deep leagues. I've been saying it for years, Leinart is going to make an impact eventually, it's just a matter of when.
Click to expand...
An impact on a fantasy defense? I swear I think the kid was one of the worst starters in the league after seeing him play at the pro level. I had high hopes for him, loved him at USC, but it's just not happening.
Click to expand...
This just isn't accurate.
Click to expand...
51.7% isn't accurate.
Click to expand...
I thought Leinart showed good promise in his rookie season.But he looked wretched in year two. I'm not sure which is more indicative of his future prospects.
 
Wasn't Warner benched for up and coming youngsters in 2003 (Bulger), 2004 (Eli) and 2006 (Leinart)? I don't believe he missed games due to injury those seasons.

 
Lott said:
Jon_Moore said:
LHUCKS said:
Jon_Moore said:
LHUCKS said:
I would be shocked...which is why Leinart is an excellent stash in deep leagues. I've been saying it for years, Leinart is going to make an impact eventually, it's just a matter of when.
Click to expand...
An impact on a fantasy defense? I swear I think the kid was one of the worst starters in the league after seeing him play at the pro level. I had high hopes for him, loved him at USC, but it's just not happening.
Click to expand...
This just isn't accurate.
Click to expand...
51.7% isn't accurate.
Click to expand...
I thought Leinart showed good promise in his rookie season.But he looked wretched in year two. I'm not sure which is more indicative of his future prospects.
Click to expand...
Your first sentence is accurate, your second sentence is misleading given the opportunity. He had two bad preseason games...that's it. I'll take what he showed in the regular season in his rookie year as more indicative...the guy has skills. People just want to rip on him because he's the golden boy that parties...he's better than at least five starting QBs in the NFL right now IMHO.
 
AnonymousBob said:
Name the five qb's he's better than. SFTampa.........
Click to expand...
I actually like Shaun Hill, but I wouldn't put him in Leinart's category just yet.SFTampa Detroit (not sold on Stafford)Minnesota (assuming no healthy Favre)Jets (not sold on Sanchez)And I could easily make a case for about five more.TitansChiefsClevelandBuffaloDenver (Orton has little upside)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
FUBAR said:
MAYBE with Warner you'll want to draft your backup earlier than with Peyton, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, or Brady, but even with those guys you run the risk of destroying your season if you don't have a backup plan.
Click to expand...
And just to further your point all of those QB except for Manning have missed games to injury - Rodgers couldn't even make it through practice the next week after finally getting a chance when Favre left the Dallas game and he finished it up.I do agree woth the original premise though as prior to last season Warner was becoming a pretty brittle QB and his lack of mobility makes him an easy target.

 
FantasyTrader said:
thayman said:
FantasyTrader said:
You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
Click to expand...
Comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner is not an apples to apples comparison.
Click to expand...
Well now we're entering into a seperate discussion entirely. I simply threw out a stat that, in the last 40 years there have been two occurances of a 38+ year old QB thowing for 25+ TD's. And now you've taken that and twisted it into, I'm comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner? If you'd like to argue what's possible? Absolutely. I 100% agree that Warner can duplicate last year. I'm just looking at what's probable by factoring in historical stats.
Click to expand...
Well, in the last 40 years there have been three occurrences of a 37 year old QB throwing for 30 TDs; Y.A. Tittle, Steve Young, and now Kurt Warner. The historical precedent is really not a useful metric in this case; how many 38-year-old QBs were coming off a 25+ TD season and still starting? Four. Young had his Nth concussion and retired, Elway missed three regular-season games but still threw 22 TDs and won a Super Bowl, Gannon and Tittle had partial seasons. This does not count as a statistical population--it's a collection of individuals, in individual situations. Warner is an individual in an individual situation, and it's a waste of time to worry about what happened to Rich Gannon after Siragusa sat on him; Warner will do well or poorly on his own merits this season.I think there are reasons to be worried about Warner--in particular, he gets a significant downgrade if Boldin leaves. But if Fitzgerald and Boldin are back, you have to project Warner as a top-10 QB, with top-3 upside.

 
I think even if Warner goes down Leinart can be a top 10 fantasy QB in the Zona offense.

Leinart showed some promise his rookie season and I assume he's learned something and matured in the last couple seasons watching Warner.

To judge him as horrible because he couldn't beat out a future HOF QB who has played like an All-Pro lately is a bit foolish IMO.

 
CalBear said:
FantasyTrader said:
thayman said:
FantasyTrader said:
You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
Click to expand...
Comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner is not an apples to apples comparison.
Click to expand...
Well now we're entering into a seperate discussion entirely. I simply threw out a stat that, in the last 40 years there have been two occurances of a 38+ year old QB thowing for 25+ TD's. And now you've taken that and twisted it into, I'm comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner? If you'd like to argue what's possible? Absolutely. I 100% agree that Warner can duplicate last year. I'm just looking at what's probable by factoring in historical stats.
Click to expand...
Well, in the last 40 years there have been three occurrences of a 37 year old QB throwing for 30 TDs; Y.A. Tittle, Steve Young, and now Kurt Warner. The historical precedent is really not a useful metric in this case; how many 38-year-old QBs were coming off a 25+ TD season and still starting? Four. Young had his Nth concussion and retired, Elway missed three regular-season games but still threw 22 TDs and won a Super Bowl, Gannon and Tittle had partial seasons. This does not count as a statistical population--it's a collection of individuals, in individual situations. Warner is an individual in an individual situation, and it's a waste of time to worry about what happened to Rich Gannon after Siragusa sat on him; Warner will do well or poorly on his own merits this season.I think there are reasons to be worried about Warner--in particular, he gets a significant downgrade if Boldin leaves. But if Fitzgerald and Boldin are back, you have to project Warner as a top-10 QB, with top-3 upside.
Click to expand...
:confused:
 
CalBear said:
FantasyTrader said:
thayman said:
FantasyTrader said:
You've lost me. We're talking about a 38 year old quarterback. I'm pretty sure that by sampling all 38 year old QB's I'm comparing apples to apples.
Click to expand...
Comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner is not an apples to apples comparison.
Click to expand...
Well now we're entering into a seperate discussion entirely. I simply threw out a stat that, in the last 40 years there have been two occurances of a 38+ year old QB thowing for 25+ TD's. And now you've taken that and twisted it into, I'm comparing Brad Johnson to Kurt Warner? If you'd like to argue what's possible? Absolutely. I 100% agree that Warner can duplicate last year. I'm just looking at what's probable by factoring in historical stats.
Click to expand...
Well, in the last 40 years there have been three occurrences of a 37 year old QB throwing for 30 TDs; Y.A. Tittle, Steve Young, and now Kurt Warner. The historical precedent is really not a useful metric in this case; how many 38-year-old QBs were coming off a 25+ TD season and still starting? Four. Young had his Nth concussion and retired, Elway missed three regular-season games but still threw 22 TDs and won a Super Bowl, Gannon and Tittle had partial seasons. This does not count as a statistical population--it's a collection of individuals, in individual situations. Warner is an individual in an individual situation, and it's a waste of time to worry about what happened to Rich Gannon after Siragusa sat on him; Warner will do well or poorly on his own merits this season.I think there are reasons to be worried about Warner--in particular, he gets a significant downgrade if Boldin leaves. But if Fitzgerald and Boldin are back, you have to project Warner as a top-10 QB, with top-3 upside.
Click to expand...
Okay okay. Good argument. Let's take your line of thought to the extreme then. Last year at the age of 39 Brett Favre threw 22 TD passes. Let's say he retires and 60 years from now, re-enters the NFL at age 89. Can he throw 22 TD's again? Why not? He's an individual in an individual situation. Point being, at some age (ON AVERAGE) your body begins to work against you. In my mind, there's a reason so few have thrown 25+ TD passes age 38 and beyond. You make a very valid point that only four 38 year old QB's were coming off of 25+ TD seasons. But then you go on to say ZERO of those four examples managed to throw 25 TD's the following year. Not too compelling a reason for why Warner will. Again, I'm NOT saying he can't, just that NFL history would suggest is not's likely.

Which I'm sure brings you back to, "Well this is the 38 year old Warner, and he's an individual". Which brings me back to "Why not the 89 year old Favre?"

 
You make a very valid point that only four 38 year old QB's were coming off of 25+ TD seasons. But then you go on to say ZERO of those four examples managed to throw 25 TD's the following year. Not too compelling a reason for why Warner will. Again, I'm NOT saying he can't, just that NFL history would suggest is not's likely. Which I'm sure brings you back to, "Well this is the 38 year old Warner, and he's an individual". Which brings me back to "Why not the 89 year old Favre?"
Click to expand...
Which brings us all back to the insufficient sample size argument.I think we can all agree that, on average, all other things being equal, the younger player has a better chance at staying healthy than the older player.But a sample size of four says nothing predictive.
 
Lott said:
You make a very valid point that only four 38 year old QB's were coming off of 25+ TD seasons. But then you go on to say ZERO of those four examples managed to throw 25 TD's the following year. Not too compelling a reason for why Warner will. Again, I'm NOT saying he can't, just that NFL history would suggest is not's likely.

Which I'm sure brings you back to, "Well this is the 38 year old Warner, and he's an individual". Which brings me back to "Why not the 89 year old Favre?"
Click to expand...
Which brings us all back to the insufficient sample size argument.I think we can all agree that, on average, all other things being equal, the younger player has a better chance at staying healthy than the older player.

But a sample size of four says nothing predictive.
Click to expand...
Wonderful, we agree! The bold is all I've been saying. The thing is, any sample size involving human beings playing a game that combines skill & chance isn't predictive. We could have a sample size of 40,000 and it wouldn't predict a sub-25 TD campaign for Warner this year. We're simply talking about degrees of liklihood.
 
Some good stuff in this thread:

- Warner gave way to younger QBs in 2003, 2004, and 2006, not injury (although he did suffer a concussion in the epic fail season opener of 2003 vs. the Giants)

- Comparing Warner to every 38 year old QB is not illuminating, comparing him to the other QBs who played at his level as a 37 year old is (thanks CalBear)

- Warner has actually been durable in recent history, including playing through torn elbow ligaments in 2007.

- Warner was the best QB against the blitz last year, he's got a very release, and he just knows how to stay out of harm's way a la Marino or Peyton.

I would feel very comfortable with Warner as my QB1 after the top 4 are off the board. I might take my QB2 a little higher than if my QB1 was Rodgers or Rivers, but that's about the only adjustment I would make. I don't think you have to draft Leinart - there's also a chance (albeit a slim one) that Brian St. Pierre beats him out in camp for the backup job.

 
Lott said:
You make a very valid point that only four 38 year old QB's were coming off of 25+ TD seasons. But then you go on to say ZERO of those four examples managed to throw 25 TD's the following year. Not too compelling a reason for why Warner will. Again, I'm NOT saying he can't, just that NFL history would suggest is not's likely.

Which I'm sure brings you back to, "Well this is the 38 year old Warner, and he's an individual". Which brings me back to "Why not the 89 year old Favre?"
Click to expand...
Which brings us all back to the insufficient sample size argument.I think we can all agree that, on average, all other things being equal, the younger player has a better chance at staying healthy than the older player.

But a sample size of four says nothing predictive.
Click to expand...
But doesn't the fact that it is such a small sample size, tell us something here?
 
Dr. Octopus said:
But doesn't the fact that it is such a small sample size, tell us something here?
Click to expand...
When you're talking about a likely Hall of Famer, no. One of the characteristics of Hall of Famers is that they do things that the general NFL population doesn't. When Jerry Rice was 39, no 39-year-old WR had ever scored more than 60 fantasy points. Rice went for 168, and then for good measure went for 165, 99, and 61 in his next three seasons. When Marcus Allen was 36, only one 36+ RB had scored 100 fantasy points; Allen went for 164 and followed it up with 125. When Warren Moon was 39, no 39+ QB had ever scored 250 fantasy points or threw for more than 15 TDs; Moon went for 33 TDs and 356 points and followed it up with 25 and 286.So the comparison to make is not to Steve Deberg (and all the Steve Debergs of the world) at 38, the comparison to make is to Warren Moon at 39. Is there any plausible reason why Warner at 38 can't play as well as Moon at 39?

 
I don't see why Warner won't last 16 games. :goodposting:

I disagree that younger players have a better chance at staying healthy / avoiding injury. The only advantage younger players have is that they tend to heal quicker. But all NFL players, by position, have nearly the same propensity for injury.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Lott said:
You make a very valid point that only four 38 year old QB's were coming off of 25+ TD seasons. But then you go on to say ZERO of those four examples managed to throw 25 TD's the following year. Not too compelling a reason for why Warner will. Again, I'm NOT saying he can't, just that NFL history would suggest is not's likely.

Which I'm sure brings you back to, "Well this is the 38 year old Warner, and he's an individual". Which brings me back to "Why not the 89 year old Favre?"
Click to expand...
Which brings us all back to the insufficient sample size argument.I think we can all agree that, on average, all other things being equal, the younger player has a better chance at staying healthy than the older player.

But a sample size of four says nothing predictive.
Click to expand...
But doesn't the fact that it is such a small sample size, tell us something here?
Click to expand...
That very few QBs play as well Warner has into their late 30s. That doesn't change the fact that he is actually doing it. The rate of success of undrafted free agent QBs would have kept us from ever taking a chance on Warner by this logic. The way you win your league is by discerning who is the exception, not the rule. It's not very hard to run numbers that tell us the rate of success of players with specific attributes, but that's playing FF like we're blind and the games are just computer run simulations. We can do better than that - if Warner had trouble playing through injuries the last few years, or his mobility had become so compromised at his advanced age that it affected his game, then there would be something to the idea of knocking him down simply because of his age. I haven't seen it. If Warner gets hurt in 2009, it will likely be on a play that would have hurt a QB of any age. Maybe the age argument comes into play if he's a slow healer, but that's about it.
 
LHUCKS said:
AnonymousBob said:
Name the five qb's he's better than.
Click to expand...
And I could easily make a case for about five more.Titans

Chiefs

Cleveland

Buffalo

Denver (Orton has little upside)
Click to expand...
I'd love to see your case....Kerry Collins is far better than Leinart

Cassell is better, Thigpen is probably better too

Derek Anderson is hit or miss, hard to say with Quinn, but my guess is put all three on a roster and Leinart comes out third

Trent Edwards has already proven he's better than Leinart

Orton is clearly better than Leinart

I'm just waiting to see your easy case...

 
switz said:
I don't see why Warner won't last 16 games. :shrug:I disagree that younger players have a better chance at staying healthy / avoiding injury. The only advantage younger players have is that they tend to heal quicker. But all NFL players, by position, have nearly the same propensity for injury.
Click to expand...
I don't agree with this at all. While difficult to quantify, the fact is that there are flat out some QB's who are more prone to concussions (which, of course, become easier to sustain with each successive one) than others. To my knowledge, Peyton Manning has never had a concussion in the NFL; Kurt Warner has had many. Moreover, and no doubt related, Manning has been known for getting rid of the ball quickly and avoiding hits while Warner has often held the ball too long, and therefore taken hits. There's no way I'd equate the two when it comes to injury risk.
 
switz said:
I don't see why Warner won't last 16 games. :lmao:I disagree that younger players have a better chance at staying healthy / avoiding injury. The only advantage younger players have is that they tend to heal quicker. But all NFL players, by position, have nearly the same propensity for injury.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
 
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