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Jamaal Charles (1 Viewer)

oukurt

oukurt

Footballguy
I am a bit surprised by all of the love he is getting in player rankings and in the start up dynasty drafts I have been involved in.

Personally, I am cautiously and hopefully optomistic. Not sure if I feel comfortable having him as my RB2. He has proved himself worthy over 1/2 a season. I am happy to have him on a few teams, but is anyone else thinking he may be overrated? I notice he is going in the 2nd round on average in start up drafts, but I am having a lot of trouble trying to trade him in a couple of established leagues. Guessing others may be thinking he is a 1/2 season wonder?

I have tried dealing him for players like Pierre Thomas, Felix Jones, and some WRs ranked in the 6-12 range and am getting rejected immediately. So I am not sure what to think these days. What is your take?

 
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I don't get it either nor do I see a difference between him and J. Harrison. Both have so much confidence from their coaches that RBs were brought in to compete with them.

KC gets T. Jones and drafts McCluster (who could play a similar role) while CLE drafts Hardesty, grabs Hillis and already has a couple more RBs. Yet Charles gets lots of love. Which is odd considering a couple years ago he was "too small".

:thumbup:

 
Zoomanji said:
I don't get it either nor do I see a difference between him and J. Harrison. Both have so much confidence from their coaches that RBs were brought in to compete with them.KC gets T. Jones and drafts McCluster (who could play a similar role) while CLE drafts Hardesty, grabs Hillis and already has a couple more RBs. Yet Charles gets lots of love. Which is odd considering a couple years ago he was "too small". :thumbup:
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You don't see a difference between Harrison vs Charles.... let me point out a couple-Harrison is 27 years of age, never had more then 194 carries in a season or caught more then 34 passes. Both of those occured last season. He has also never rushed for more then 862 yards in a season. Harrison had 7 total TD's this past year.-Charles is 23 and in his second year on 190 carries had 1120 yards, and caught 40 passes. Charles also did this with a far worst O line than Harrison's. Charles also had 8 total td's this past year.
 
Count me in the skeptical crowd. I do feel Charles will get the most work of any RB in KC...but you gotta believe that T Jones was brought in for the short yardage/goaline touches..so he'll probably take away quite a few TDs...and it's not like KC's offense is a juggernaut, so there aren't a ton of scoring opportunities to go around. I'd rather Pierre Thomas myself. I could be wrong on Charles..but I won't be spending a 2nd round pick on the guy.

 
Zoomanji said:
I don't get it either nor do I see a difference between him and J. Harrison. Both have so much confidence from their coaches that RBs were brought in to compete with them.KC gets T. Jones and drafts McCluster (who could play a similar role) while CLE drafts Hardesty, grabs Hillis and already has a couple more RBs. Yet Charles gets lots of love. Which is odd considering a couple years ago he was "too small". ;)
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The list of differences between Harrison and Charles is a long one, i will give you a few of those differences.1) Jamaal Charles is 23, Jerome Harrison is 27. 2) Charles started the last 8 games of the season. Jerome Harrison started the last 3 games of the season. 3) Over practically the same amount of carries on the season (Jerome Harrison had 4 more), Charles averaged 5.9 yards per carry, Harrison averaged 4.4 yards per carry.4) Of Harrison's 194 carries, three of them went for more than 20 yards. Those were 21, 28, and 71 yard runs. Of Charles' 190 carries, 9 of them went for more than 20 yards. Those were 24, 30, 31, 33, 44, 47, 52, 56, 76 yard runs. Simply put, Charles is a young, explosive, runner who has showed success every year in the NFL. Jerome Harrison is a decent back, but he's the kind of guy who needs a lot of touches to put up numbers. If you actually watch both of these players play, it becomes obvious who the more talented player is.
 
Would prefer to stay on the topic of Charles and not Harrision.

I drafted him in a couple of rookie drafts in 2008 loving his speed and situation but thought he would be too small to become a back that could handle 15-20 carries a game.

I see GMs willing to spend a 2nd round draft pick on him start up leagues but for whatever reason I can't deal him in established leagues. Just looking for input to why.

Do most of you Charles owners feel comfortable with him as your RB1 or RB2 going into the season or are you looking to deal him while his stock is high? Curious to what players and/or draft picks Charles owners are getting in return or are most of you in hold mode?

 
Charles is the most talented back in KC, but it looks like a pretty ugly committee situation with T. Jones sniping multiple GL opportunities. I wouldn't draft any committee back in the 2nd round with talent like Fitzgerald, Calvin, and Roddy White still on board, BUT I've been seeing him slip in mocks over at FFC.com. Once the top WR talent is off the board, I think Charles could become a nice value pick in the 3rd round.

There's also the chance that he could be a playoff monster again should T. Jones and McCluster both run out of steam by year end (which is very possible).

 
This Jamaal Charles situation seems eerily similar to Kevan Barlow from a number of years ago.

A RB goes on a hot streak at the end of the season on a bad football team and everyone is then all over his nuts and expects the world out of him in the following season.

Similarities

-Young and relatively unknown RB to get fulltime duty

-RB on a bad football team

-Team has questionable OL

-Accumulated the majority of their fantasy points on a hot streak at the end of the season

I don't think Jamaal Charles will be as much of a disappointment as Kevan Barlow was that year, but keep in mind that Jamaal Charles was a top 12 RB and accumulated half of his 2009 fantasy points in the last 4 games of the season.

 
First of all, McCluster was drafted as a WR, not a RB. Yes, he's played RB before and yes, he may get a couple carries/game similar to Harvin. But the guy is not slated to be a significant portion of a RBBC. Unless you think Harvin poses a threat to AP's total carries, then you can think the same about McCluster unless something is otherwise specified at a later date.

As for T. Jones, you need to ask this question. If T. Jones wasn't in KC, do you think that's a stable RB situation? Who's the backup? What would happen if Charles had an injury? Do ANY teams aside from a couple (i.e. StL, Jax) have a starting RB without a somewhat capable backup? There was no one there. They HAD to bring someone in. If a guy like T. Jones, even at his age, is available for a relatively small price, why wouldn't they bring him in? Some of you are looking at it as if they brought in T. Jones because they like him to take over instead of they brought T. Jones because they had to bring SOMEONE in and he was the best available option.

Sure, he's going to get some carries this year, no doubt. He could easily see 150-200 carries, even. But I can pretty comfortably say he will NOT be the lead RB in the Charles/Jones RBBC unless Jamaal fails miserably, which he has yet to do. Would it have been any different if they resigned LJ? If they brought in Westbrook or Jamal Lewis? What if they picked up Fred Taylor? The point is that SOMEONE was going to come in. The fact that it was one of the more attractive FA options doesn't change the rationale behind the signing. Charles is their guy and the coaching staff has pretty clearly stated so.

IMO, it's much more reassuring that they brought in a 32 yo RB than if they spent a high draft pick on a RB. Look at Darren Sproles. Look at Fred Jackson/Lynch. Look at Willie Parker last year. In other words, T. Jones is nothing more than a short-term backup option that has proven he can still play. He's not Charles' replacement. And the split between those two will only continue to favor JC as time goes on.

 
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Toby Gerhart got drafted by Minnesota. Are AD owners in a panic? I know that is an extreme and TJones is a proven back but every team in the NFL needs two backs to survive anymore. Am I going to let go of Charles easily because TJ was brought in and you think you can get him on the cheap? Um, no. You don't run butt-#######-wild like Charles did on the team he was on without having a great amount of talent.

 
Fantasy-wise, if Charles falls to me in late 2nd or early 3rd, and I pick Charles... I'm definitely grabbing a 3rd RB with my 3rd or 4th round pick. I'd be ok with going RB-Charles-RB-WR ... or RB-Charles-WR-RB.

That way you probably lock up two top 10 RBs, which is a lineup advantage that merits an easy playoff appearance in most fantasy leagues.

 
gianmarco said:
First of all, McCluster was drafted as a WR, not a RB. Yes, he's played RB before and yes, he may get a couple carries/game similar to Harvin. But the guy is not slated to be a significant portion of a RBBC. Unless you think Harvin poses a threat to AP's total carries, then you can think the same about McCluster unless something is otherwise specified at a later date.As for T. Jones, you need to ask this question. If T. Jones wasn't in KC, do you think that's a stable RB situation? Who's the backup? What would happen if Charles had an injury? Do ANY teams aside from a couple (i.e. StL, Jax) have a starting RB without a somewhat capable backup? There was no one there. They HAD to bring someone in. If a guy like T. Jones, even at his age, is available for a relatively small price, why wouldn't they bring him in? Some of you are looking at it as if they brought in T. Jones because they like him to take over instead of they brought T. Jones because they had to bring SOMEONE in and he was the best available option. Sure, he's going to get some carries this year, no doubt. He could easily see 150-200 carries, even. But I can pretty comfortably say he will NOT be the lead RB in the Charles/Jones RBBC unless Jamaal fails miserably, which he has yet to do. Would it have been any different if they resigned LJ? If they brought in Westbrook or Jamal Lewis? What if they picked up Fred Taylor? The point is that SOMEONE was going to come in. The fact that it was one of the more attractive FA options doesn't change the rationale behind the signing. Charles is their guy and the coaching staff has pretty clearly stated so.IMO, it's much more reassuring that they brought in a 32 yo RB than if they spent a high draft pick on a RB. Look at Darren Sproles. Look at Fred Jackson/Lynch. Look at Willie Parker last year. In other words, T. Jones is nothing more than a short-term backup option that has proven he can still play. He's not Charles' replacement. And the split between those two will only continue to favor JC as time goes on.
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:goodposting:
 
Well someone in my dynasty league just sold their 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks for him, so their is plenty of koolaid to go around.

 
Zaphod said:
Well someone in my dynasty league just sold their 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks for him, so their is plenty of koolaid to go around.
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Sure, but unless it's a top 4 or so pick in the 1st round, and the 2nd round becomes Charles......................they just gave up potential for the same potential a year or two later.I don't call that kool-aid, I call that somebody using the timing and current increased value of draft picks to grab a guy who shouldn't be sold at that price.
 
oukurt said:
Would prefer to stay on the topic of Charles and not Harrision. I drafted him in a couple of rookie drafts in 2008 loving his speed and situation but thought he would be too small to become a back that could handle 15-20 carries a game. I see GMs willing to spend a 2nd round draft pick on him start up leagues but for whatever reason I can't deal him in established leagues. Just looking for input to why.Do most of you Charles owners feel comfortable with him as your RB1 or RB2 going into the season or are you looking to deal him while his stock is high? Curious to what players and/or draft picks Charles owners are getting in return or are most of you in hold mode?
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If I had him on a dynasty team (I don't), I'd sell him high before people see how the RBBC is going to form in KC between he and Jones. IMO, he'll be at fire-sale prices in August. He's at 32 on my redraft-non PPR board and 28th in my PPR rankings. My :unsure: .
 
Instinctive said:
Zaphod said:
Well someone in my dynasty league just sold their 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks for him, so their is plenty of koolaid to go around.
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Sure, but unless it's a top 4 or so pick in the 1st round, and the 2nd round becomes Charles......................they just gave up potential for the same potential a year or two later.I don't call that kool-aid, I call that somebody using the timing and current increased value of draft picks to grab a guy who shouldn't be sold at that price.
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Hey, to each their own. It's all a matter of valuation. Personally, it's a bit much for me, but I can see the logic in the move if you believe in him. My intent was more to provide some real data on at least one owner's value.
 
Anyone that thinks the 32 year Jones -- marginally effective last year behind a very good offensive line -- is a real threat to Charles just plain doesn't believe in Charles in the first place.

 
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Mark Wimer said:
oukurt said:
Would prefer to stay on the topic of Charles and not Harrision. I drafted him in a couple of rookie drafts in 2008 loving his speed and situation but thought he would be too small to become a back that could handle 15-20 carries a game. I see GMs willing to spend a 2nd round draft pick on him start up leagues but for whatever reason I can't deal him in established leagues. Just looking for input to why.Do most of you Charles owners feel comfortable with him as your RB1 or RB2 going into the season or are you looking to deal him while his stock is high? Curious to what players and/or draft picks Charles owners are getting in return or are most of you in hold mode?
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If I had him on a dynasty team (I don't), I'd sell him high before people see how the RBBC is going to form in KC between he and Jones. IMO, he'll be at fire-sale prices in August. He's at 32 on my redraft-non PPR board and 28th in my PPR rankings. My :lmao: .
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And the ones predicting decent to big things for him are being rediculous? I know people went off the deep end before Jones arrived but c'mon, really?! This guy was no. 2 to only Chris Johnson with KC's, ya KC!, line. 32 is crazy.... Crazy, I says. I'm in shock. This board, nay, this site has really gone from having choppy waters for rankings to having tidal waves for the slighest fantasy breeze. Temper, not freeze your projections. TJ is 32 PERIODNew title of thread should be: Jamaal Charles, too much hate?
 
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Zaphod said:
Instinctive said:
Zaphod said:
Well someone in my dynasty league just sold their 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks for him, so their is plenty of koolaid to go around.
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Sure, but unless it's a top 4 or so pick in the 1st round, and the 2nd round becomes Charles......................they just gave up potential for the same potential a year or two later.I don't call that kool-aid, I call that somebody using the timing and current increased value of draft picks to grab a guy who shouldn't be sold at that price.
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Hey, to each their own. It's all a matter of valuation. Personally, it's a bit much for me, but I can see the logic in the move if you believe in him. My intent was more to provide some real data on at least one owner's value.
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With this draft class? Unless you are getting Bryant or Mathews and even then you are shooting fish in a barrell beyond round 2. I think if it was me as a Charles owner I would say no thanks. Could he bust? Ya but so can anyone I take in those draft positions. I already know what the guy can do at the professional level and at his peak he could be one of the very best if the offense begins to develop and he doesn't end up like SJax or other hard luck backs.
 
oukurt said:
I am a bit surprised by all of the love he is getting in player rankings and in the start up dynasty drafts I have been involved in.Personally, I am cautiously and hopefully optomistic. Not sure if I feel comfortable having him as my RB2. He has proved himself worthy over 1/2 a season. I am happy to have him on a few teams, but is anyone else thinking he may be overrated? I notice he is going in the 2nd round on average in start up drafts, but I am having a lot of trouble trying to trade him in a couple of established leagues. Guessing others may be thinking he is a 1/2 season wonder?I have tried dealing him for players like Pierre Thomas, Felix Jones, and some WRs ranked in the 6-12 range and am getting rejected immediately. So I am not sure what to think these days. What is your take?
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I think that your asking price is high. Really, why trade for the lead back for two of the most powerful offenses, for a RBBC guy from one of the worst?I think a lot of people are nervous about Charles, and it goes back to college. He wasn't on anyone's sleeper list, everyone called him a track guy, too small, a guy that had a lot to learn about even being a change of pace guy, etc. Pre-draft, you read more bad stuff than good about him. He was one of those guys on everyone's bust list. After last year, people need to re-think their opinions, but they won't until Charles beats them over the head with good numbers. He doesn't have a very promising fantasy situation for 2010 with Jones there, but it seems like everyone is aware of it, so not sure he is overrated. Haven't read too many glowing testimonials on him from many respected sources.His talent, however, is definitely underrated. The kid can play.
 
Teams have some tape on him and he is going to be gameplanned against. And his teams talent level is very questionable. If you take him in the second round you better have some insurance.

 
Those concerned about TJ getting "ALL" the goal line work, let's be serious. This isn't IND or NO or NE. Sure there will be a few inside the 5 opportunites that TJ might get (this year), but that remains to be seen.

And don't worry. JC will be scoring most of his 10+ TDs in 2010 from outside the redzone anyway. :shrug:

Seriously, I was sitting Turner, Benson and Addai in one dyansty league for the last half of the season just to keep him in the lineup. He was impossible to bench and I'll be shocked if that changes anytime soon.

Be afraid at your own risk.

 
Bojang0301 said:
Mark Wimer said:
oukurt said:
Would prefer to stay on the topic of Charles and not Harrision. I drafted him in a couple of rookie drafts in 2008 loving his speed and situation but thought he would be too small to become a back that could handle 15-20 carries a game. I see GMs willing to spend a 2nd round draft pick on him start up leagues but for whatever reason I can't deal him in established leagues. Just looking for input to why.Do most of you Charles owners feel comfortable with him as your RB1 or RB2 going into the season or are you looking to deal him while his stock is high? Curious to what players and/or draft picks Charles owners are getting in return or are most of you in hold mode?
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If I had him on a dynasty team (I don't), I'd sell him high before people see how the RBBC is going to form in KC between he and Jones. IMO, he'll be at fire-sale prices in August. He's at 32 on my redraft-non PPR board and 28th in my PPR rankings. My :goodposting: .
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And the ones predicting decent to big things for him are being rediculous? I know people went off the deep end before Jones arrived but c'mon, really?! This guy was no. 2 to only Chris Johnson with KC's, ya KC!, line. 32 is crazy.... Crazy, I says. I'm in shock. This board, nay, this site has really gone from having choppy waters for rankings to having tidal waves for the slighest fantasy breeze. Temper, not freeze your projections. TJ is 32 PERIODNew title of thread should be: Jamaal Charles, too much hate?
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I didn't call anyone ridiculous. I just don't believe that a 5.9 YPC average is repeatable at this level. The Chiefs were getting spanked so badly last year that Charles faced prevent defenses for extensive periods of time. They scored 294 points last year and gave up 424. They allowed 6211 yards of offense and only managed 4851 total themselves. They had 62 less first downs than their opponents last year. Their best receiver, Dwayne Bowe, only played in 11 games and only started 9, and had only half as many receptions last season as he did during 2008.There was a perfect storm on offense in KC that resulted in Charles getting ridiculous touches and gains in his chances to be the featured back. From week 14 forwards, he scored four of his TDs and amassed 94 of his 190 carries and 13 of his 40 receptions. When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.But that's just me.
 
wdcrob said:
Anyone that thinks the 32 year Jones -- marginally effective last year behind a very good offensive line -- is a real threat to Charles just plain doesn't believe in Charles in the first place.
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1,400 rush yards and 14 TDs is marginally effective? Charles breakout was 1,100 and 7. I think Jamaal is the clear lead back in KC and if injury free may approach those numbers, but credit where credit is due for Jones' top notch season?
 
Catbird said:
wdcrob said:
Anyone that thinks the 32 year Jones -- marginally effective last year behind a very good offensive line -- is a real threat to Charles just plain doesn't believe in Charles in the first place.
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1,400 rush yards and 14 TDs is marginally effective? Charles breakout was 1,100 and 7. I think Jamaal is the clear lead back in KC and if injury free may approach those numbers, but credit where credit is due for Jones' top notch season?
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Ok... credit where it's due. IMO Jones was a 31 year old back who was still average by NFL standards despite his age. And he took full advantage of playing in a fantastic situation. Charles was an outstanding 22 year old back who took a crappy situation and exploded.I like Thomas Jones. But he's not much of a threat to Charles if Charles is what he appeared to be last season (especially in dynasty formats). If you're not buying Jamaal's 2009 performance, then bump Jones up considerably.
 
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Air Stich said:
Charles is the most talented back in KC, but it looks like a pretty ugly committee situation with T. Jones sniping multiple GL opportunities. I wouldn't draft any committee back in the 2nd round with talent like Fitzgerald, Calvin, and Roddy White still on board, BUT I've been seeing him slip in mocks over at FFC.com. Once the top WR talent is off the board, I think Charles could become a nice value pick in the 3rd round.

There's also the chance that he could be a playoff monster again should T. Jones and McCluster both run out of steam by year end (which is very possible).
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Maybe we need to discern between PPR and non-PPR, dynasty and redraft. In PPR, which is what I play exclusively, you will NEVER see Fitz, Calvin, and Roddy available in the mid-2nd Round. I've had a couple of real dynasty drafts so far this offseason, and Charles' value is typically a mid-to-late 2nd Rder (12 team leagues). For PPR, this is probably about right. I don't view any of those offseason additions as a threat to my expectations for Charles as he is not a workhorse RB. In this era, you don't have to be a 300-carry workhorse to produce in fantasy. I expect around 240-275 touches (run and receiving), which would be plenty enough to earn a borderline RB1 for a guy with his type of explosiveness.
 
Mark Wimer said:
Bojang0301 said:
Mark Wimer said:
oukurt said:
Would prefer to stay on the topic of Charles and not Harrision. I drafted him in a couple of rookie drafts in 2008 loving his speed and situation but thought he would be too small to become a back that could handle 15-20 carries a game. I see GMs willing to spend a 2nd round draft pick on him start up leagues but for whatever reason I can't deal him in established leagues. Just looking for input to why.Do most of you Charles owners feel comfortable with him as your RB1 or RB2 going into the season or are you looking to deal him while his stock is high? Curious to what players and/or draft picks Charles owners are getting in return or are most of you in hold mode?
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If I had him on a dynasty team (I don't), I'd sell him high before people see how the RBBC is going to form in KC between he and Jones. IMO, he'll be at fire-sale prices in August. He's at 32 on my redraft-non PPR board and 28th in my PPR rankings. My ;) .
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And the ones predicting decent to big things for him are being rediculous? I know people went off the deep end before Jones arrived but c'mon, really?! This guy was no. 2 to only Chris Johnson with KC's, ya KC!, line. 32 is crazy.... Crazy, I says. I'm in shock. This board, nay, this site has really gone from having choppy waters for rankings to having tidal waves for the slighest fantasy breeze. Temper, not freeze your projections. TJ is 32 PERIODNew title of thread should be: Jamaal Charles, too much hate?
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I didn't call anyone ridiculous. I just don't believe that a 5.9 YPC average is repeatable at this level. The Chiefs were getting spanked so badly last year that Charles faced prevent defenses for extensive periods of time. They scored 294 points last year and gave up 424. They allowed 6211 yards of offense and only managed 4851 total themselves. They had 62 less first downs than their opponents last year. Their best receiver, Dwayne Bowe, only played in 11 games and only started 9, and had only half as many receptions last season as he did during 2008.There was a perfect storm on offense in KC that resulted in Charles getting ridiculous touches and gains in his chances to be the featured back. From week 14 forwards, he scored four of his TDs and amassed 94 of his 190 carries and 13 of his 40 receptions. When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.But that's just me.
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OK, you make some great points. What kind of stats are you projecting then that would put him around 30 in your rankings?
 
Mark Wimer said:
When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.
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It is just you. Most people would be looking at his time as a starter instead of the whole season. Week 10: 21.7Week 11: 14.6Week 12: 23.7Week 13: 12.9Week 14: 31.1Week 15: 25Week 16: 15.4Week 17: 39.2Unless you're trying to say that Thomas Jones is going to be the starter in K.C. this year I don't think you're analyzing this very well. Did he absolutely blow up in Week 17? Yep. But he also averaged about 21/game from Weeks 10-16 (the other seven games he started). Ding him 25% of his average over those eight games and he's still a solid top ten back.
 
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Zoomanji said:
I don't get it either nor do I see a difference between him and J. Harrison. Both have so much confidence from their coaches that RBs were brought in to compete with them.

KC gets T. Jones and drafts McCluster (who could play a similar role) while CLE drafts Hardesty, grabs Hillis and already has a couple more RBs. Yet Charles gets lots of love. Which is odd considering a couple years ago he was "too small".

:goodposting:
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Jamaal Charles did it last year with Chan Gailey as OC..Weiss >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Chan Gailey.

the Jets thought so highly of TJ they let him go..he's old.he's a great clubhouse guy, but his ypc avg was atrocious down the stretch last season,and if you can't run behind the terrific Jets o-line, you can't run behind any line..

he's no threat to Charles, if anything,he's a good RB to spell Charles from time to time.

Charles recs should go thru the roof with Weiss as Oc.

Hillis is a never-has-been RB who's best suited for a position as a p/t player.

Harrison is the real deal,and Mangini will use him ad-nauseum this season..he's already made statements hinting about it..

and I think Holmgren's advice and knowledge helps turn Harrison into a poor man's Shaun Alexander - i.e., a workhorse RB..

 
I love when poeple refer to Charles stats last season as a "hot streak". A hot streak is when a player who has been starting all of a sudden puts up a few back-to-back games of elite stats.

A full season is 16 games. Half a season is 8 games. Jamaal Charles plays 9 games as the full time starter (ie more than half the season). During those 9 games he was the #2 fantasy back behind only Chris Johnson, who had a sick season. Prior to that, he was a backup running back.

In other words, we have never seen Chris Johnson have a single game where he was the starter and did not kick ###. We have seen 9 straight games where he was the starter and kicked ###.

Anyone, reading any deeper into this is only short changing themselves. I just got him in a startup dynasty at 3.04. You got to love that.

 
Tanner9919 said:
Zoomanji said:
I don't get it either nor do I see a difference between him and J. Harrison. Both have so much confidence from their coaches that RBs were brought in to compete with them.KC gets T. Jones and drafts McCluster (who could play a similar role) while CLE drafts Hardesty, grabs Hillis and already has a couple more RBs. Yet Charles gets lots of love. Which is odd considering a couple years ago he was "too small". :lol:
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Charles recs should go thru the roof with Weiss as Oc.
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With McCluster there I'm not sure. McCluster will be used mostly as a WR, and I think he could easily eat into Charles' catches.
 
wdcrob said:
Mark Wimer said:
When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.
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It is just you. Most people would be looking at his time as a starter instead of the whole season. Week 10: 21.7 - vs. Oakland (29th in the NFL vs. the run last year, averaging 155.5 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 11: 14.6 - vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in the NFL averaging 89.9 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 12: 23.7 - vs. San Diego (20th in the NFL averaging 117.8 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 13: 12.9 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Week 14: 31.1 - vs. Buffalo (30th in the NFL averaging 156.3 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 15: 25 - vs. Cleveland (28th, 144.6 per)

Week 16: 15.4 - vs. Cincinati (7th, 98.3 per)

Week 17: 39.2 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Unless you're trying to say that Thomas Jones is going to be the starter in K.C. this year I don't think you're analyzing this very well.

Did he absolutely blow up in Week 17? Yep. But he also averaged about 21/game from Weeks 10-16 (the other seven games he started). Ding him 25% of his average over those eight games and he's still a solid top ten back.
Click to expand...
Look at the opponents and when Charles scored well. Look at the trend there - all his best games came against teams among the 12 worst at run D in the league last year. Mostly against the 7 worst in the league. As I wrote above, a perfect storm on the KC offense set Charles up for lots of work and a big YPC. I don't think that is repeatable.

 
ItsOnlytheRiver said:
Mark Wimer said:
Bojang0301 said:
Mark Wimer said:
oukurt said:
Would prefer to stay on the topic of Charles and not Harrision. I drafted him in a couple of rookie drafts in 2008 loving his speed and situation but thought he would be too small to become a back that could handle 15-20 carries a game. I see GMs willing to spend a 2nd round draft pick on him start up leagues but for whatever reason I can't deal him in established leagues. Just looking for input to why.Do most of you Charles owners feel comfortable with him as your RB1 or RB2 going into the season or are you looking to deal him while his stock is high? Curious to what players and/or draft picks Charles owners are getting in return or are most of you in hold mode?
Click to expand...
If I had him on a dynasty team (I don't), I'd sell him high before people see how the RBBC is going to form in KC between he and Jones. IMO, he'll be at fire-sale prices in August. He's at 32 on my redraft-non PPR board and 28th in my PPR rankings. My :lmao: .
Click to expand...
And the ones predicting decent to big things for him are being rediculous? I know people went off the deep end before Jones arrived but c'mon, really?! This guy was no. 2 to only Chris Johnson with KC's, ya KC!, line. 32 is crazy.... Crazy, I says. I'm in shock. This board, nay, this site has really gone from having choppy waters for rankings to having tidal waves for the slighest fantasy breeze. Temper, not freeze your projections. TJ is 32 PERIODNew title of thread should be: Jamaal Charles, too much hate?
Click to expand...
I didn't call anyone ridiculous. I just don't believe that a 5.9 YPC average is repeatable at this level. The Chiefs were getting spanked so badly last year that Charles faced prevent defenses for extensive periods of time. They scored 294 points last year and gave up 424. They allowed 6211 yards of offense and only managed 4851 total themselves. They had 62 less first downs than their opponents last year. Their best receiver, Dwayne Bowe, only played in 11 games and only started 9, and had only half as many receptions last season as he did during 2008.There was a perfect storm on offense in KC that resulted in Charles getting ridiculous touches and gains in his chances to be the featured back. From week 14 forwards, he scored four of his TDs and amassed 94 of his 190 carries and 13 of his 40 receptions. When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.But that's just me.
Click to expand...
OK, you make some great points. What kind of stats are you projecting then that would put him around 30 in your rankings?
Click to expand...
K.C. ran for 438/1929 rushing yards/8 TDs in Haley year one. I give them credit for a slight improvement as a team this year, to ~2050-2100 rushing yards as a team, but project an increase in the number of carries required (I don't think the 4.4 YPC reflects the quality of the line, it was skewed by Charles' 5.9 last year and that was anomalous as I indicated above. So, I have it:Jones 250/900-1000/7-8 rushing TDs with 25-30 receptions for 125-150 yards and one TDCharles 200/800-900/4 rushing TDs with 35-40 receptions for 350-400 yards and one TDMcCluster 40 for 150 and one rushing TD with 40-45 receptions for 480-520 yards and one TD (understanding that some of the receptions come lined up as a wide receiver and some out of the backfield teamed with Charles on 3rd down situations). ~490 rushes for 1850-2050 rushing yards (and 60 receptions for the main two backs with some additions from the hybrid McCluster). Throw in another 50-100 yards rushing for QB plunges and FB carries (Castille, Cox) and you're looking at a rushing offense somewhere in the seventh-16th range at years end (based on last year's final rushing totals, KC was 11th in the NFL in total rushing yards).For the purposes of doing my rankings boards, I assume the higher end of my yardage and TD ranges in the spreadsheet, but that's strictly for the purpose of ranking players 1-whatever. When I do draft strategy, I arrange players in tiers/buckets based on where the apparent tiers appear in total fantasy points/X value projected. Then I order the players in the tiers according to intangible risks (injury situation, concussion risk, off-field risk, coaching changes, etc), with a preference for younger (but proven), healthier, saner players in the most stable coaching environments first and then on down to the over-30's. My intangibles notes help me break ties between positions later on in the fantasy draft (after the "premium" rounds 1-5 or so, depending on position).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I probably won't take him in any league because he won't fall far enough where I feel comfortable taking him, my startup dynasty in a few weeks or any redrafts I do.

I feel a lot better about him long term than this year though. Not really a fan of the 3rd down back in RBBC because low % of goal line carries.

Right now Id probably rate him as a low end RB2 for the year, even lower in non PPR. High ceiling but low floor guy that will probably end up right in the middle.

 
Mark Wimer said:
wdcrob said:
Mark Wimer said:
When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.
Click to expand...
It is just you. Most people would be looking at his time as a starter instead of the whole season. Week 10: 21.7 - vs. Oakland (29th in the NFL vs. the run last year, averaging 155.5 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 11: 14.6 - vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in the NFL averaging 89.9 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 12: 23.7 - vs. San Diego (20th in the NFL averaging 117.8 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 13: 12.9 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Week 14: 31.1 - vs. Buffalo (30th in the NFL averaging 156.3 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 15: 25 - vs. Cleveland (28th, 144.6 per)

Week 16: 15.4 - vs. Cincinati (7th, 98.3 per)

Week 17: 39.2 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Unless you're trying to say that Thomas Jones is going to be the starter in K.C. this year I don't think you're analyzing this very well.

Did he absolutely blow up in Week 17? Yep. But he also averaged about 21/game from Weeks 10-16 (the other seven games he started). Ding him 25% of his average over those eight games and he's still a solid top ten back.
Click to expand...
Look at the opponents and when Charles scored well. Look at the trend there - all his best games came against teams among the 12 worst at run D in the league last year. Mostly against the 7 worst in the league. As I wrote above, a perfect storm on the KC offense set Charles up for lots of work and a big YPC. I don't think that is repeatable.
Click to expand...
Perfect storm? A lot of things happened in KC last year and all of them were far from perfect... except for Charles.
 
OnThInIcE911 said:
I probably won't take him in any league because he won't fall far enough where I feel comfortable taking him, my startup dynasty in a few weeks or any redrafts I do.

I feel a lot better about him long term than this year though. Not really a fan of the 3rd down back in RBBC because low % of goal line carries.

Right now Id probably rate him as a low end RB2 for the year, even lower in non PPR. High ceiling but low floor guy that will probably end up right in the middle.
Click to expand...
Really? As stated previously, there is far more hate for Charles than love. If you are a Charles fan you should toss some things the Charles owner's way in hopes he feels like a lot of people on this board.
 
Bojang0301 said:
Mark Wimer said:
wdcrob said:
Mark Wimer said:
When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.
Click to expand...
It is just you. Most people would be looking at his time as a starter instead of the whole season. Week 10: 21.7 - vs. Oakland (29th in the NFL vs. the run last year, averaging 155.5 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 11: 14.6 - vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in the NFL averaging 89.9 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 12: 23.7 - vs. San Diego (20th in the NFL averaging 117.8 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 13: 12.9 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Week 14: 31.1 - vs. Buffalo (30th in the NFL averaging 156.3 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 15: 25 - vs. Cleveland (28th, 144.6 per)

Week 16: 15.4 - vs. Cincinati (7th, 98.3 per)

Week 17: 39.2 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Unless you're trying to say that Thomas Jones is going to be the starter in K.C. this year I don't think you're analyzing this very well.

Did he absolutely blow up in Week 17? Yep. But he also averaged about 21/game from Weeks 10-16 (the other seven games he started). Ding him 25% of his average over those eight games and he's still a solid top ten back.
Click to expand...
Look at the opponents and when Charles scored well. Look at the trend there - all his best games came against teams among the 12 worst at run D in the league last year. Mostly against the 7 worst in the league. As I wrote above, a perfect storm on the KC offense set Charles up for lots of work and a big YPC. I don't think that is repeatable.
Click to expand...
Perfect storm? A lot of things happened in KC last year and all of them were far from perfect... except for Charles.
Click to expand...
Xactly. If you read my posts earlier in the thread, you'll see that I am presenting an analysis that Charle's success last season was anomalous and partly due to how the team was so horrid last season (lots of garbage time yards vs. prevent D's, a disproportional number of touches due to Bowe being in the doghouse a lot, etc). MW

 
Bojang0301 said:
OnThInIcE911 said:
I probably won't take him in any league because he won't fall far enough where I feel comfortable taking him, my startup dynasty in a few weeks or any redrafts I do.

I feel a lot better about him long term than this year though. Not really a fan of the 3rd down back in RBBC because low % of goal line carries.

Right now Id probably rate him as a low end RB2 for the year, even lower in non PPR. High ceiling but low floor guy that will probably end up right in the middle.
Click to expand...
Really? As stated previously, there is far more hate for Charles than love. If you are a Charles fan you should toss some things the Charles owner's way in hopes he feels like a lot of people on this board.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty much in the middle on charles. I think those that love him are too high on him and those that think hes a flash in the pan are wrong also. Unfortunately his owner drafted him pretty high last year and is not known for offering fair trades so hes untouchable in my league.

But if I were in a league where the owner had Charles as LJ insurance and was shopping him for cheap I would grab him.

 
There's so much mis information and lack of commense sense in this thread that it baffles me. It is unbelievable to me the number of people that think Thomas Jones will carry the ball 250 times in KC this season. The only way for this to happen is for the coach to specifically want to lose as many games as possible. Since that makes no sense, it's not going to happen.

Thomas Jones will be 32 yrs old. He never was a stud until he ran behind the Jets o-line. Even then, he wore down pathetically at the ned of last season. He's a year older, on a much crappier offense, playing behind a much more talented running back. It baffles me when I see someone predict that TJ will have 250 carries and Charles will have 200. Describe a possible scenario in which this is even possible to pull off... You would have to be leading every game by three TDs at halftime for those projections to make any sense at all. The only other scenario involves an injury to Charles.... but that's not what we are talking about.

I would be a little less shocked if I saw the same argument being made for LT. At least in his situation he is going to play behind a much better run blocking line - so you never know what might happen if he busts out the gate like the LT of old. But Thomas Jones (who isn't that talented to begin with) playing in KC???? Whatever. I'm sticking to my guns. Charles will get his and I expect him to put up solid numbers. And no, a slot receiver is not going to significantly take away from a RB's receptions. Since when is that ever the case?? Slot receivers run receiver routes and running backs are last-resort relief valves (or designed screen plays). Sure McCluster might get a couple of designed screen plays where the call would have otherwise been a JC screen play... but those situations will be far and few between. The vast majority of a running backs receptions come on passing downs where the QB checks down to his last option, which is always the running back (not the slot receiver).

 
Mark, you are predicting about the same exact number of touches he got playing basically only 9 games last season. I don't think anyone is expecting 5.9 yards a carry, but surely he is going to get more than the 10 extra you are predicting for him (And 0 extra catches). I'm surprised you think TJ is going to get 50 more carries, do you have a link that supports this? I just can't imagine Haley ignoring what JC did last year for a 31 year old back that hit a wall in the playoffs.

 
Mark Wimer said:
Bojang0301 said:
Mark Wimer said:
wdcrob said:
Mark Wimer said:
When I see 50% of a players' production coming week 14 forwards, as his team sits at 3-10 and faces the Bill's 30th ranked run D, the Brown's 28th-ranked run D, and the Bronco's 26th-ranked run D (three patsy D's out of four, with Cincy's 7th-ranked rush D the only real challenge in that stretch), color me skeptical about projecting 2010 based on his strong 2009 finish.
Click to expand...
It is just you. Most people would be looking at his time as a starter instead of the whole season. Week 10: 21.7 - vs. Oakland (29th in the NFL vs. the run last year, averaging 155.5 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 11: 14.6 - vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in the NFL averaging 89.9 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 12: 23.7 - vs. San Diego (20th in the NFL averaging 117.8 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 13: 12.9 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Week 14: 31.1 - vs. Buffalo (30th in the NFL averaging 156.3 rushing yards allowed per game)

Week 15: 25 - vs. Cleveland (28th, 144.6 per)

Week 16: 15.4 - vs. Cincinati (7th, 98.3 per)

Week 17: 39.2 - vs. Denver (26th in the NFL, averaging 128.7 per)

Unless you're trying to say that Thomas Jones is going to be the starter in K.C. this year I don't think you're analyzing this very well.

Did he absolutely blow up in Week 17? Yep. But he also averaged about 21/game from Weeks 10-16 (the other seven games he started). Ding him 25% of his average over those eight games and he's still a solid top ten back.
Click to expand...
Look at the opponents and when Charles scored well. Look at the trend there - all his best games came against teams among the 12 worst at run D in the league last year. Mostly against the 7 worst in the league. As I wrote above, a perfect storm on the KC offense set Charles up for lots of work and a big YPC. I don't think that is repeatable.
Click to expand...
Perfect storm? A lot of things happened in KC last year and all of them were far from perfect... except for Charles.
Click to expand...
Xactly. If you read my posts earlier in the thread, you'll see that I am presenting an analysis that Charle's success last season was anomalous and partly due to how the team was so horrid last season (lots of garbage time yards vs. prevent D's, a disproportional number of touches due to Bowe being in the doghouse a lot, etc). MW
Click to expand...
How does KC's schedule look this year? Will they be playing as many poor run defenses?
 
footballsavvy said:
There's so much mis information and lack of commense sense in this thread that it baffles me. It is unbelievable to me the number of people that think Thomas Jones will carry the ball 250 times in KC this season. The only way for this to happen is for the coach to specifically want to lose as many games as possible. Since that makes no sense, it's not going to happen.Thomas Jones will be 32 yrs old. He never was a stud until he ran behind the Jets o-line. Even then, he wore down pathetically at the ned of last season. He's a year older, on a much crappier offense, playing behind a much more talented running back. It baffles me when I see someone predict that TJ will have 250 carries and Charles will have 200. Describe a possible scenario in which this is even possible to pull off... You would have to be leading every game by three TDs at halftime for those projections to make any sense at all. The only other scenario involves an injury to Charles.... but that's not what we are talking about.I would be a little less shocked if I saw the same argument being made for LT. At least in his situation he is going to play behind a much better run blocking line - so you never know what might happen if he busts out the gate like the LT of old. But Thomas Jones (who isn't that talented to begin with) playing in KC???? Whatever. I'm sticking to my guns. Charles will get his and I expect him to put up solid numbers. And no, a slot receiver is not going to significantly take away from a RB's receptions. Since when is that ever the case?? Slot receivers run receiver routes and running backs are last-resort relief valves (or designed screen plays). Sure McCluster might get a couple of designed screen plays where the call would have otherwise been a JC screen play... but those situations will be far and few between. The vast majority of a running backs receptions come on passing downs where the QB checks down to his last option, which is always the running back (not the slot receiver).
Click to expand...
This pretty much articulates everything I want to say. I don't feel TJ is a bad back and yes last year was impressive for his advanced age but he is friggin 32. Like someone else pointed out it would be absolutely crazy for KC to go into next season with just Charles (ya he's 199 lbs or did you expect Charles fans/owners to ignore that?). Someone was going to be brought in.
 
footballsavvy said:
Charles will get his and I expect him to put up solid numbers. And no, a slot receiver is not going to significantly take away from a RB's receptions. Since when is that ever the case?? Slot receivers run receiver routes and running backs are last-resort relief valves (or designed screen plays). Sure McCluster might get a couple of designed screen plays where the call would have otherwise been a JC screen play... but those situations will be far and few between. The vast majority of a running backs receptions come on passing downs where the QB checks down to his last option, which is always the running back (not the slot receiver).
Click to expand...
I disagree here. There are only so many receptions to go around, and I think McCluster is a genuine threat to Charles' numbers. Not that he'll disappear, I still like Charles a lot, it's just that some of those catches will be where McCluster is being used as the RB going out of the backfield instead of Charles. I do think they'll use McCluster as both a slot receiver and out of the backfield -- he's most dangerous that way. So yes, another incredibly talented playmaker with a similar skill set to Charles is a threat IMO. I also think T Jones may be used in the red zone, and if he siphons off a few short TDs it will effect Charles as well.
 
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