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Player Spotlight: Derek Anderson (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Derek Anderson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson.

Stats: Incomplete

 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
:goodposting: I totally agree with the above posting. If Cleveland starts off with a bad record the fans will be calling for Quinn. Cleveland has high expectations this year and I still think most of Cle. thinks Quinn will be the guy eventually. I've been turning down offers for Quinn all offseason. I'm treating him like a starter for this year especially during the playoffs which is what really matters.DA 6 games started 1300 yards 9 td's and 10 int's. (2-4 record)
 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
The other fact is he's only 25 and has only started 1 season. 56.5% completion rate just isn't that bad considering his age/experience as well as how often he threw downfield. I don't think he's on as short of a leash as many are putting him on. Unless he completely stinks up the joint (which I don't see happening), he will get a chance to finish the year.I'm thinking something around 3700/22/16 for him this year.
 
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If Quinn is the future, why did they even bring Anderson back? Maybe they think he could be better than Quinn. I'm curious to know what Cleveland would do if DA lights it up this year. What's their next move? Get rid of one of them, or go another season with Quinn breathing down DAs neck?

 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
The other fact is he's only 25 and has only started 1 season. 56.5% completion rate just isn't that bad considering his age/experience as well as how often he threw downfield. I don't think he's on as short of a leash as many are putting him on. Unless he completely stinks up the joint (which I don't see happening), he will get a chance to finish the year.I'm thinking something around 3700/22/16 for him this year.
Your right, he has been starting for only one year but how bout you look at how his year starting regressing in the 2nd half and tell me how confident you feel in him then.
 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
The other fact is he's only 25 and has only started 1 season. 56.5% completion rate just isn't that bad considering his age/experience as well as how often he threw downfield. I don't think he's on as short of a leash as many are putting him on. Unless he completely stinks up the joint (which I don't see happening), he will get a chance to finish the year.I'm thinking something around 3700/22/16 for him this year.
Your right, he has been starting for only one year but how bout you look at how his year starting regressing in the 2nd half and tell me how confident you feel in him then.
I've looked at it. His 2nd half splits, while lower than his 1st half, are still VERY respectable (even factoring the weather for him, although he'll have to deal with it every year).Games 9-16:1679 yds/12 TDs/10 INTsThat's a 3400/24/20 year. Horrendous.
 
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I've looked at it. His 2nd half splits, while lower than his 1st half, are VERY respectable. Games 9-16:1679 yds/12 TDs/10 INTsThat's a 3400/24/20 year. Horrendous.
And how do those #s look if you throw out the bizarro weather game against Buffalo? I think there was a 2nd freakish game in there two, but can't pull the details.
 
I've looked at it. His 2nd half splits, while lower than his 1st half, are VERY respectable. Games 9-16:1679 yds/12 TDs/10 INTsThat's a 3400/24/20 year. Horrendous.
And how do those #s look if you throw out the bizarro weather game against Buffalo? I think there was a 2nd freakish game in there two, but can't pull the details.
Then he had 1542/12 TDs/10 INTs in 7 games. Projects to 3524/27/22. In that game, he was 9/24 passing for only 137 yds and 0/0. Definitely helps his cause. Of note, it was his only game not in double digit scoring all year.ETA-- DA threw for 2+ TDs in 5 of his last 8 games (5 of 7 if you throw out the blizzard in Buffalo). To say he "sucked" in the 2nd half is very short-sighted. Yes, it was not as good as his blazing 1st half, but just because his #'s went down != he was not good. He was still quite good in the 2nd half of the season.
 
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He also had a 7.2 average yards/attempt. He's giving up a few percentage points in his completion rate to take shots down the field.

 
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08 redraft plan - draft DA in round 5, handcuff Quinn a few rounds later - you're assured the QB of what should be one of the more prolific offenses in the league and can build a great team around them.

 
08 redraft plan - draft DA in round 5, handcuff Quinn a few rounds later - you're assured the QB of what should be one of the more prolific offenses in the league and can build a great team around them.
Cleveland ranked 8th in points scored last year, and 8th in total yards. Cleveland ranked 10th in FPs by their QBs.It was a good offense last year, but it wasn't anywhere near NE/DAL/IND/GB, and it was a bit behind JAX/ARI in points scored and QB FPs, and behind SEA/PIT/NO in QB FPs, and behind SD in points scored.I like Anderson, but I think a Quinn handcuff probably isn't worth it unless he goes really late. I think his ADP will end up being pretty high, and maybe even higher than 5-10 starting QBs. At that point, I'd pass.
 
The Browns schedule is brutal. Haven't done my projections for him yet, but I will say I think it's going to wind up "not as good as a lot of folks think and with a whole bunch of INTs" for Derek.

I think Quinn is starting by the end of the year.

 
08 redraft plan - draft DA in round 5, handcuff Quinn a few rounds later - you're assured the QB of what should be one of the more prolific offenses in the league and can build a great team around them.
Cleveland ranked 8th in points scored last year, and 8th in total yards. Cleveland ranked 10th in FPs by their QBs.It was a good offense last year, but it wasn't anywhere near NE/DAL/IND/GB, and it was a bit behind JAX/ARI in points scored and QB FPs, and behind SEA/PIT/NO in QB FPs, and behind SD in points scored.I like Anderson, but I think a Quinn handcuff probably isn't worth it unless he goes really late. I think his ADP will end up being pretty high, and maybe even higher than 5-10 starting QBs. At that point, I'd pass.
Keep in mind that was year 1 of the new offensive scheme, most new schemes take two years to fully develop so upside is definitely apparent. How much? Depends how much you believe in the team. I think this team has 30+ TD passes in them.
 
I think far too much is made of Anderson's splits last season. Here some recent posts I made on Anderson:

Anderson was QB #3 through week 8 last season. And not all QBs had their bye by that time (Anderson did).So the issue is whether or not his second half performance was (a) poor and (b) more representative of what to expect than his first 7 games. Let's look at his season after week 8 last year. Here are those 9 games:9 SEA W 33-30 (OT) - 29/48 (60.4%) 364 (7.58 ypa) 0 TD 1 int - 18.3 fantasy points (FBG scoring)10 @PIT L 31-28 - 16/35 (45.7%) 123 (3.51 ypa) 3 TD 0 int - 24.611 @BAL W 33-30 (OT) - 24/38 (63.2%) 274 (7.21 ypa) 0 TD 1 int - 17.912 HOU W 27-17 - 24/35 (68.6%) 253 (7.23 ypa) 2 TD 1 int - 22.613 @ARI L 27-21 - 21/41 (51.2%) 304 (7.42 ypa) 2 TD 2 int - 24.214 @NYJ W 24-18 - 16/29 (55.2%) 185 (6.38 ypa) 2 TD 1 int - 19.615 BUF W 8-0 - 9/24 (37.5%) 137 (5.71 ypa) 0 TD 0 int - 6.816 @CIN L 19-14 - 29/48 (60.4%) 251 (5.23 ypa) 2 TD 4 int - 17.217 SF W 20-7 - 11/20 (55.0%) 152 (7.60 ypa) 1 TD 1 int - 11.6In week 9, Anderson led Cleveland to an OT win over Seattle. He led two TD drives in the 4th quarter, going 10/14 plus 1/2 on two point conversion throws. Anderson was 2/2 in OT and added a 10 yard run, as he led the drive for the winning FG. He threw for 364 yards but 0 TDs, with Lewis running in 4 TDs from the 1 or 2 yard line. Good game.In week 10, Anderson threw 3 first half TDs, leading Cleveland to a 21-6 lead, but had a terrible second half. Good fantasy game, but not as good an NFL game.In week 11, Anderson won at Baltimore, which was fighting for the playoffs. He led a short drive for the tying FG at the end of regulation, and led a short drive for the winning FG in OT, completing his last 6 passes in doing so. Good NFL game, but not a particularly good fantasy game.In week 12, Anderson had 22.6 fantasy points (FBG scoring) in a win. Good game.In week 13, Anderson had a bad game on the road, with 2 interceptions, including a pick 6, and a fumble. But he still scored 24.2 fantasy points. And consider this: on the last play of regulation, he completed a 37 yard pass to Winslow in the end zone, and Winslow was ruled out of bounds. It was controversial, with some thinking the forceout rule should have been applied. How different would Anderson's game look if he were 22/41 for 341 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 interceptions, and he had thrown the game winning TD?In week 14, Anderson had 19.6 fantasy points (FBG scoring) in a win. Good game.In week 15, Anderson had a poor game through no fault of his own. From the ESPN recap: "...in blizzard-like conditions better suited for the Iditarod sled-dog race... The snow began falling -- actually blowing sideways -- off Lake Erie about 1 1/2 hours before kickoff and by game time, Browns Stadium had been transformed into the world's largest snow globe... "It was like something on the Discovery Channel about the North Pole," said Bills rookie running back Marshawn Lynch, a Californian... With wind gusts up to 40 mph and visibility limited, throwing the ball was nearly impossible and both teams had to rely on their running games to move the ball. But even that was tough as players struggled to get traction on the slippery, snow-covered surface." Anderson had only 6.8 fantasy points. Again, he managed a win, as the Browns eliminated the Bills from playoff contention and kept themselves in the race.In week 16, Anderson had 17.2 fantasy points, but had a bad game in a road loss, with 4 picks. However, note that weather was again a factor. From the ESPN recap: "With heavy winds affecting the passing and kicking games, Cincinnati was saved by its rushing game and Kenny Watson... Like Anderson, Carson Palmer also struggled with the gusting wind, going 11-of-21 for 115 yards with two interceptions and one touchdown. "I never really got a good sense of which way it was blowing," Palmer said. "It was really swirling. It was an ugly game, and a tough one to play in if you're trying to throw the football."" I wouldn't give him a free pass for 4 picks, but at least there was some mitigation. And he did have a shot at the end zone on the final play from 29 yards out that could have won the game.In week 17, Anderson had only 11.6 fantasy points, but didn't have a bad game in a win. The Browns had the game in hand all day. Plus, Anderson had only 7 attempts in the first half, thanks to (1) two long returns by Cribbs, including a TD, and (2) Quinn played the final series of the half (and had 8 attempts in that series).---Now, all that said, I'm not saying Anderson is Joe Montana. But I do think people tend to underrate his performance last season. Was any single player more instrumental in the Browns' unexpectedly good record? Heck, he threw for 3787/29 with an 82.5 QB rating in his first full season as a starter, and he is 24. :DHe only had 2 bad fantasy games all season in games he started, and there were mitigating factors for both. Now, that said, Quinn is obviously still around, and playing in Cleveland will expose him to potential poor weather games every year.In those last 9 games, he was QB10, and Favre was one of those ahead of him and is obviously now retired. FBG's expert redraft ranking currently has him ranked as QB9, right in line with his performance over those final 9 games. His "poor" stretch last season was those 9 games, when he was QB10; he was QB3 in weeks 1-8... so his FBG ranking is essentially ignoring his upside, which he showed last season. And as far as I can tell, his situation has not worsened in any way.
If you look at yards allowed per game for Cleveland's opponents and remove Cleveland's games against them (i.e., their other 14 or 15 games only), Anderson exceeded their normal yards allowed in 12 of 16 games. Among the games he didn't were the week 15 whiteout game and when Quinn played in week 17.If you look at TDs allowed per game for Cleveland's opponents and remove Cleveland's games against them (i.e., their other 14 or 15 games only), Anderson exceeded their normal TDs allowed in 10 of 16 games. Among the games he didn't were week 1, when he didn't play the entire game; the week 15 whiteout game; and when Quinn played in week 17.I'm not sure how much it matters that he rang up big numbers against some weak opponents. The fact is that he regularly threw for more yards and TDs than his opponents typically allowed.
On the completion percentage, Anderson completed 57.5% of his passes on the season including all games but the whiteout game in week 15. Including that one game drops it to his full season total of 56.5%. Not that 57.5% is setting the world on fire, but it's more representative of his season IMO.
He had a very successful season as a first year starter. At this point, we can only imagine and speculate on how successful Quinn might be as a starting NFL QB. IMO Anderson actually has a reasonably long leash right now. Obviously, if he flops, Quinn will get a shot. I just don't see any reason to believe he will flop.
I expect Anderson to be better this year, with a year under his belt and a full offseason, training camp, and preseason as the incumbent starter. Plus, the Browns added Stallworth to an already talented corps of offensive players (Edwards, Winslow, Jurevicius, Lewis, and Harrison). I'm not saying I expect more yards and TDs, and in fact he may be hard pressed to actually duplicate last season's numbers. But I do expect him to force fewer throws, throw fewer interceptions, and improve his completion percentage.I'll project 307/520 (59%) for 3850 yards (7.4 ypa), 26 passing TDs, and 16 interceptions, along with 35/90/1 rushing
 
The Browns schedule is brutal. Haven't done my projections for him yet, but I will say I think it's going to wind up "not as good as a lot of folks think and with a whole bunch of INTs" for Derek.I think Quinn is starting by the end of the year.
The Browns schedule may be brutal (although it probably won't be), but Anderson's schedule isn't that hard. Teams like the Giants, Redskins and Texans may be playoff contenders, but none of them have tough fantasy defenses for QBs. The Cowboys and Steelers are tough NFL opponents, but not especially tough fantasy QB opponents. And the Bengals, Ravens and Broncos should provide four easy games. (Baltimore and Denver may have good reputations, but they don't have very good pass defenses anymore).Browns schedule = projected to be very difficultAnderson's FF schedule = just slightly harder than average
 
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Games 9-16:1679 yds/12 TDs/10 INTsThat's a 3400/24/20 year. Horrendous.
yeah, looks like a typical eli manning year. :goodposting:
Yeah, Manning has only finished 5th, 11th, and 14th the last 3 yrs. And that's if DA replicates his "horrible" 2nd half splits. Right now, DA is, at best, going as the 7th QB taken (after Brady, Manning, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Big Ben). Most of the time, I've seen Cutler going next. There are worse things than taking the #8 QB and having him finish 11th (below Manning's 3 yr avg). And, considering that he could play more like the 1st half and not the 2nd half, his upside warrants his selection right there.
 
08 redraft plan - draft DA in round 5, handcuff Quinn a few rounds later - you're assured the QB of what should be one of the more prolific offenses in the league and can build a great team around them.
Cleveland ranked 8th in points scored last year, and 8th in total yards. Cleveland ranked 10th in FPs by their QBs.It was a good offense last year, but it wasn't anywhere near NE/DAL/IND/GB, and it was a bit behind JAX/ARI in points scored and QB FPs, and behind SEA/PIT/NO in QB FPs, and behind SD in points scored.I like Anderson, but I think a Quinn handcuff probably isn't worth it unless he goes really late. I think his ADP will end up being pretty high, and maybe even higher than 5-10 starting QBs. At that point, I'd pass.
Keep in mind that was year 1 of the new offensive scheme, most new schemes take two years to fully develop so upside is definitely apparent. How much? Depends how much you believe in the team. I think this team has 30+ TD passes in them.
They definitely have it in them. Good upside here.
 
The Browns schedule is brutal. Haven't done my projections for him yet, but I will say I think it's going to wind up "not as good as a lot of folks think and with a whole bunch of INTs" for Derek.

I think Quinn is starting by the end of the year.
The Browns schedule may be brutal (although it probably won't be), but Quinn's Anderson's schedule isn't that hard. Teams like the Giants, Redskins and Texans may be playoff contenders, but none of them have tough fantasy defenses for QBs. The Cowboys and Steelers are tough NFL opponents, but not especially tough fantasy QB opponents. And the Bengals, Ravens and Broncos should provide four easy games. (Baltimore and Denver may have good reputations, but they don't have very good pass defenses anymore).Browns schedule = projected to be very difficult

Quinn's Anderson's FF schedule = just slightly harder than average
Fixed. Otherwise, :popcorn:
 
The Browns schedule is brutal. Haven't done my projections for him yet, but I will say I think it's going to wind up "not as good as a lot of folks think and with a whole bunch of INTs" for Derek.

I think Quinn is starting by the end of the year.
The Browns schedule may be brutal (although it probably won't be), but Quinn's Anderson's schedule isn't that hard. Teams like the Giants, Redskins and Texans may be playoff contenders, but none of them have tough fantasy defenses for QBs. The Cowboys and Steelers are tough NFL opponents, but not especially tough fantasy QB opponents. And the Bengals, Ravens and Broncos should provide four easy games. (Baltimore and Denver may have good reputations, but they don't have very good pass defenses anymore).Browns schedule = projected to be very difficult

Quinn's Anderson's FF schedule = just slightly harder than average
Fixed. Otherwise, :rolleyes:
:bag:
 
Anderson was an INT machine in college and that hasn't changed so far in the NFL. I applaud him for surpassing expectations and playing reasonably well last season, but I'm inclined to view him more as an overrated fluke than a franchise passer in the making. He's not accurate and he makes a lot of mistakes. I still think he's capable of producing another strong FF season if he starts all 16 games, but I think Quinn is the franchise QB in Cleveland and I think Anderson is far too risky to draft at his current price.

No projections. Just an opinion.

 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
:( I totally agree with the above posting. If Cleveland starts off with a bad record the fans will be calling for Quinn. Cleveland has high expectations this year and I still think most of Cle. thinks Quinn will be the guy eventually. I've been turning down offers for Quinn all offseason. I'm treating him like a starter for this year especially during the playoffs which is what really matters.DA 6 games started 1300 yards 9 td's and 10 int's. (2-4 record)
the Brownies are this year's flop team. Out of the gate they'll play Dallas, Pitt, Baltimore, Cincy, NYG, Washington. Jax Baltimore.Could be looking at a 2-6 record at the midway point, with maybe, just maybe, two wins coming against Baltimore.Anderson=Cinderella, its midnight, time to give back the glass slipper. I'm not sure there is a bigger one-year wonder in the past 15 years in the NFL, than DA...Hist stats tailed off towards the end of 2007, and his int rate went up during that time. Fans will start clamoring for Quinn if they lose a few games early on..DA starts 7 games in 2008,replaced by Quinn.1358/9 td/15 int
 
I really don't know what to think about Anderson. My gut is that he's overrated and that he's in a great situation but looking at the numbers and listening to the arguments he may end up being a solid QB. I'll probably end up passing on him due to the uncertainty but wouldn't be suprised if he had another good year with the receiving talent on the Brownies. It'll be one of the more interesting situations to watch.

300-3700-23-19

 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson.

Stats: Incomplete
The other fact is he's only 25 and has only started 1 season. 56.5% completion rate just isn't that bad considering his age/experience as well as how often he threw downfield. I don't think he's on as short of a leash as many are putting him on. Unless he completely stinks up the joint (which I don't see happening), he will get a chance to finish the year.I'm thinking something around 3700/22/16 for him this year.
Your right, he has been starting for only one year but how bout you look at how his year starting regressing in the 2nd half and tell me how confident you feel in him then.
Peyton Manning's rookie year:56.7% Completions

26 TDs

28 INTs


 
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
:tinfoilhat: I totally agree with the above posting. If Cleveland starts off with a bad record the fans will be calling for Quinn. Cleveland has high expectations this year and I still think most of Cle. thinks Quinn will be the guy eventually. I've been turning down offers for Quinn all offseason. I'm treating him like a starter for this year especially during the playoffs which is what really matters.DA 6 games started 1300 yards 9 td's and 10 int's. (2-4 record)
the Brownies are this year's flop team. Out of the gate they'll play Dallas, Pitt, Baltimore, Cincy, NYG, Washington. Jax Baltimore.Could be looking at a 2-6 record at the midway point, with maybe, just maybe, two wins coming against Baltimore.Anderson=Cinderella, its midnight, time to give back the glass slipper. I'm not sure there is a bigger one-year wonder in the past 15 years in the NFL, than DA...Hist stats tailed off towards the end of 2007, and his int rate went up during that time. Fans will start clamoring for Quinn if they lose a few games early on..DA starts 7 games in 2008,replaced by Quinn.1358/9 td/15 int
Ever heard of Kurt Warner?
 
Banger said:
I really don't know what to think about Anderson. My gut is that he's overrated and that he's in a great situation but looking at the numbers and listening to the arguments he may end up being a solid QB. I'll probably end up passing on him due to the uncertainty but wouldn't be suprised if he had another good year with the receiving talent on the Brownies. It'll be one of the more interesting situations to watch.300-3700-23-19
Exactly how I feel about him. I actually felt this way 100% a few weeks ago and he's grown on me little by little since then....
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
MOP...I'm not saying you're wrong about his accuracy, but keep in mind that Eli Manning is a career 54.7% passer and last year completed just 56.1% of his passes. He's also got a higher interception rate (3.8% vs. 3.6%); yet that doesn't stop most people from comfortably slotting Manning into the top 10 of fantasy passers; nor is anyone worried he's going to lose his job.
 
This is Mark Rypien 2. Keep him upright and give him weapons, and he can put up numbers, particularly as an accurate deep passer with a good arm. I do think his numbers will regress slightly from last year's now that defensive coordinators have a year's worth of tape of him and that offense to watch.

3600/25/20

 
Not Sure I get all of the hate associated with this guy. Yea his production slid quite a bit in the 2nd half, but a season isn't 8 weeks long. With all of the receiving weapons this guy has, I don't see how he could be a bust. They got a significant upgrade at WR2 to go with a top 5 threat in Edwards and a top 3 in Winslow.

3700 yards 30 tds 20 ints

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
MOP...I'm not saying you're wrong about his accuracy, but keep in mind that Eli Manning is a career 54.7% passer and last year completed just 56.1% of his passes. He's also got a higher interception rate (3.8% vs. 3.6%); yet that doesn't stop most people from comfortably slotting Manning into the top 10 of fantasy passers; nor is anyone worried he's going to lose his job.
At the same time, there's a big difference in situations. Manning was drafted to be the future of the Giants.Anderson was scraped off waivers after being cut by the Ravens. He couldn't beat out Charlie Frye in training camp last year and he currently has a first round QB drafted by this regime nipping at his heels. I don't think his job is as safe as Eli's.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson.

Stats: Incomplete
MOP...I'm not saying you're wrong about his accuracy, but keep in mind that Eli Manning is a career 54.7% passer and last year completed just 56.1% of his passes. He's also got a higher interception rate (3.8% vs. 3.6%); yet that doesn't stop most people from comfortably slotting Manning into the top 10 of fantasy passers; nor is anyone worried he's going to lose his job.
At the same time, there's a big difference in situations. Manning was drafted to be the future of the Giants.Anderson was scraped off waivers after being cut by the Ravens. He couldn't beat out Charlie Frye in training camp last year and he currently has a first round QB drafted by this regime nipping at his heels. I don't think his job is as safe as Eli's.
I agree with your main point, that Eli's job is safer than Anderson's. But do you really think the bolded stuff above really matters at this point? IMO that is water under the bridge, and what he did on the field last season is much more relevant.With regard to Quinn, he is a highly regarded, reasonably highly drafted, but unproven QB. I'm not sure if "nipping at his heels" is supposed to mean more than that. Savage and Crennel have flatly stated multiple times that there is no open QB competition this year. IMO Anderson would have to flop pretty badly to yield to Quinn. Do you disagree with that?

 
Brady Quinn is a non-factor unless/until Anderson fails. Phillip Rivers, a much higher drafted QB waited two years to get his opportunity in San Diego. If they're winning with Anderson, Quinn's carrying a clipboard. What happens this coming offseason may be up for debate, but that much is clear.

 
I don't know where Anderson will be going in redraft/dynasty leauges but I think he is one of the most intruiging players entering the 2008 season. I think specifically in dynasty you can get a 24 year old franchise QB for a much cheaper price then other franchise QB's due to the questions that have already been brought up in this thread.

The Browns O-line is very good and will only be better this year. Anderson has the weapons and the confidence of knowing he can play well in this league. Confidence is a huge part of playing QB in the NFL. Any 24 year old QB who put up the type of stats Anderson did is a huge confidence builder. He has already overcome adversity in his yound career and again he will be facing adversity to prove that he is not a one year wonder. Am I totally sold on this guy? No, not at all, but I think he is being shafted by many fantasy players and may prove a lot of his critics wrong.

2008 projection:

325 completions 525 throws: 61% completion

3900 yards

28 TD's, 18 Int's

 
I agree with your main point, that Eli's job is safer than Anderson's. But do you really think the bolded stuff above really matters at this point?
I only think it matters in that Anderson wasn't really "the guy" that this regime targeted as its franchise QB. This wouldn't matter much if Quinn wasn't on the roster, but teams that draft a young QB in the top 1-2 rounds generally get him on the field within 1-3 seasons. Look at what the Jets, Vikings, Broncos, Chargers, Bills (x2) and Titans have done in recent years. They nudged aside some fairly decent quarterbacks to get their young guy on the field.
With regard to Quinn, he is a highly regarded, reasonably highly drafted, but unproven QB. I'm not sure if "nipping at his heels" is supposed to mean more than that. Savage and Crennel have flatly stated multiple times that there is no open QB competition this year.
And that's probably what the Jets said last year as well. I'm not sure Crennel and gang will stick with that line if they're 3-5 at the midway point and Anderson has a QB rating below 80. A relatively unproven starter is always at risk of losing his job if the team has a high pick potential franchise type QB waiting in the wings.
IMO Anderson would have to flop pretty badly to yield to Quinn. Do you disagree with that?
I think it really depends on how the team does. A lot of people predict them to win their division. Personally, I don't think they can beat Pittsburgh and I think Baltimore and Cincy are dangerous enough to take some bites out of them. It's not hard to foresee a scenario where Anderson and this squad underperform, which could definitely be the catalyst for getting Quinn on the field. I'm not saying it WILL happen, but it's a strong possibility IMO.It's a bit premature to close the book on Anderson since he's a young QB who's probably still improving, but my hunch is that he will max out as a Kitna type. He'll have some big games, but he makes critical mistakes and will never be a true franchise QB. I don't see any reason to take him at his current price when you can have guys like McNabb, Cutler, or Schaub instead. There are lots of QB's available who offer the same sort of value at a lower cost.
 
I agree with incomplete assessments. You can argue DA's first half vs. second half statistical splits all you want, but for me it all has to do with the eyeball test: DA way too often does not look like a good/great QB.

I think he is an average QB with great weapons and a good OL.

Cleveland has high expectations and I think will struggle, esp. with the prime time games.

While DA not passing the eyeball test doesn't matter in FF, it will matter in Cleveland, where the faithful will be clamoring for Quinn, and they'll get him, sooner than later IMO. Certainly the situation is too risky to draft DA where he will go.

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Fact is he doesn't have great accuracy...only 56.5% completions. I think he will lose his job to Brady Quinn and to project an entire year out for him is just simply foolish. He will get drafted too high. The Shark move is to draft Brady Quinn late and 1 spot ahead of whoever takes Anderson. Stats: Incomplete
MOP...I'm not saying you're wrong about his accuracy, but keep in mind that Eli Manning is a career 54.7% passer and last year completed just 56.1% of his passes. He's also got a higher interception rate (3.8% vs. 3.6%); yet that doesn't stop most people from comfortably slotting Manning into the top 10 of fantasy passers; nor is anyone worried he's going to lose his job.
At the same time, there's a big difference in situations. Manning was drafted to be the future of the Giants.Anderson was scraped off waivers after being cut by the Ravens. He couldn't beat out Charlie Frye in training camp last year and he currently has a first round QB drafted by this regime nipping at his heels. I don't think his job is as safe as Eli's.
I actually agree with that to an extent; in that Manning's pedigree as the 1st overall pick gave him a cushion to run before he walked; and now that he's won a Superbowl he's entrenched regardless of whether his numbers are very compelling. Heck, Anderson was the odd man out of a TRIO of QBs last year. As you alluded, Frye started the season under center and Quinn is the "QB of the future."I will say though that given Anderson's new contract, he's very entrenched this year. He would have to be downright awful for the Browns to make a change to Quinn IMHO. And by awful I mean a lot worse than 56.5% completion rates and 3.8% interception rates IMHO.
 
I will say though that given Anderson's new contract, he's very entrenched this year. He would have to be downright awful for the Browns to make a change to Quinn IMHO. And by awful I mean a lot worse than 56.5% completion rates and 3.8% interception rates IMHO.
:popcorn:
 
I will say though that given Anderson's new contract, he's very entrenched this year. He would have to be downright awful for the Browns to make a change to Quinn IMHO. And by awful I mean a lot worse than 56.5% completion rates and 3.8% interception rates IMHO.
:goodposting:
Boy I wonder how patient the Browns will be if Anderson struggles. This is a franchise that benched and then traded its' starter in 2007 after a bad half of football in its' first game. I think the expectations in Cleveland this year are off the charts. The Browns traded their future (2008 draft picks & Leigh Bodden) for the here and now (D-linemen). There will be tremendous pressure on Crennel and DA to live up to these new expectations coming off a 10-6 season...and they have Dallas and Pittsburgh at home to open the season.
 
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Frenchy Fuqua said:
Just Win Baby said:
Jason Wood said:
I will say though that given Anderson's new contract, he's very entrenched this year. He would have to be downright awful for the Browns to make a change to Quinn IMHO. And by awful I mean a lot worse than 56.5% completion rates and 3.8% interception rates IMHO.
:goodposting:
Boy I wonder how patient the Browns will be if Anderson struggles. This is a franchise that benched and then traded its' starter in 2007 after a bad half of football in its' first game. I think the expectations in Cleveland this year are off the charts. The Browns traded their future (2008 draft picks & Leigh Bodden) for the here and now (D-linemen). There will be tremendous pressure on Crennel and DA to live up to these new expectations coming off a 10-6 season...and they have Dallas and Pittsburgh at home to open the season.
It's worth pointing out, I think, that four times in NFL history a team drafted a QB in the first round, another QB on the roster made the Pro Bowl that coming season, and the rookie QB and the Pro Bowler were both on the roster the next year (I'm including Rivers in this study, even though technically he wasn't drafted by the Chargers).None of the four QBs lost their job; only one of the sophomore QBs played for any significant amount of time at all, and that was due to injury. Pro Bowl QBs just aren't benched for unproven QBs.Now I'd be amenable to the argument that Anderson isn't as good or irreplaceable as the average Pro Bowl QB, but I don't think I could argue that Quinn is any better than your average rookie QB taken in the first round. Bottom line is I can't see Anderson getting replaced very easily, unless he plays really poorly. With that OL and those targets, I don't think that's going to happen.
 
Now I'd be amenable to the argument that Anderson isn't as good or irreplaceable as the average Pro Bowl QB, but I don't think I could argue that Quinn is any better than your average rookie QB taken in the first round. Bottom line is I can't see Anderson getting replaced very easily, unless he plays really poorly. With that OL and those targets, I don't think that's going to happen.
:thumbup: Pro Bowl with an asterisk. He only had an 82 QB rating.

 
Now I'd be amenable to the argument that Anderson isn't as good or irreplaceable as the average Pro Bowl QB, but I don't think I could argue that Quinn is any better than your average rookie QB taken in the first round. Bottom line is I can't see Anderson getting replaced very easily, unless he plays really poorly. With that OL and those targets, I don't think that's going to happen.
:lmao: Pro Bowl with an asterisk. He only had an 82 QB rating.
QB Rating is overrated, but there's no doubt that Anderson's numbers weren't elite. He was probably in the middle of the second quartile of starting QBs last year. Brady/Manning/Roethlisberger/Garrard were clearly better AFC QBs last year.But Anderson is still pretty good. And it will take a lot for someone like Quinn -- who is unproven -- to supplant him.

 
How many first year starters have had a season as good as Anderson's? Even if you take his 2nd half stats and project them out to a full season, his numbers are still very good, especially for someone who was basically a rookie. I cant help but to think if DA was a first round pick, many of his doubters would not be as skeptical about his fututre prospects. As a matter of fact, if it were Quinn last year who did the exact same thing, very few would doubt him being a top 3-5 dynasty QB right now.

540 att., 330 comp., 3940 yards, 31 TD's, 17 Ints.

38 car., 110 yards 2 TD's

 
How many first year starters have had a season as good as Anderson's?
Kurt WarnerDaunte CulpepperErik KramerKen O'BrienMark RypienChad PenningtonBoomer EsiasonJoe MontanaRoger StaubachPhilip RiversMichael VickJay SchroederJay CutlerGreg LandryOthers:Dan MarinoTony RomoVince FerragamoJames HarrisPat HadenMarc BulgerTony EasonKen StablerBen RoethlisbergerBob LeeOther good season:Trent GreenJim KellyBrett FavreStan HumphriesWarren MoonJake DelhommeSteve BeuerleinTom BradyRandall CunninghamTy DetmerTommy MaddoxDieter BrockJim PlunkettDennis ShawJim HarbaughBrian SipeRob JohnsonCharlie BatchKen AndersonBobby HebertMatt SchaubNeil O'DonnellJeff HostetlerJeff KempEric HippleSteve SpurrierMatt RobinsonWade WilsonDave Krieg
 
How many first year starters have had a season as good as Anderson's?
Kurt WarnerDaunte Culpepper

Erik Kramer

Ken O'Brien

Mark Rypien

Chad Pennington

Boomer Esiason

Joe Montana

Roger Staubach

Philip Rivers

Michael Vick

Jay Schroeder

Jay Cutler

Greg Landry

Others:

Dan Marino

Tony Romo

Vince Ferragamo

James Harris

Pat Haden

Marc Bulger

Tony Eason

Ken Stabler

Ben Roethlisberger

Bob Lee

Other good season:

Trent Green

Jim Kelly

Brett Favre

Stan Humphries

Warren Moon

Jake Delhomme

Steve Beuerlein

Tom Brady

Randall Cunningham

Ty Detmer

Tommy Maddox

Dieter Brock

Jim Plunkett

Dennis Shaw

Jim Harbaugh

Brian Sipe

Rob Johnson

Charlie Batch

Ken Anderson

Bobby Hebert

Matt Schaub

Neil O'Donnell

Jeff Hostetler

Jeff Kemp

Eric Hipple

Steve Spurrier

Matt Robinson

Wade Wilson

Dave Krieg
I didnt ask how many first year starters had a decent season. I asked as good as Anderson's, which most of the players on the list do not qualify.
 
How many first year starters have had a season as good as Anderson's?
Kurt WarnerDaunte Culpepper

Erik Kramer

Ken O'Brien

Mark Rypien

Chad Pennington

Boomer Esiason

Joe Montana

Roger Staubach

Philip Rivers

Michael Vick

Jay Schroeder

Jay Cutler

Greg Landry

Others:

Dan Marino

Tony Romo

Vince Ferragamo

James Harris

Pat Haden

Marc Bulger

Tony Eason

Ken Stabler

Ben Roethlisberger

Bob Lee

Other good season:

Trent Green

Jim Kelly

Brett Favre

Stan Humphries

Warren Moon

Jake Delhomme

Steve Beuerlein

Tom Brady

Randall Cunningham

Ty Detmer

Tommy Maddox

Dieter Brock

Jim Plunkett

Dennis Shaw

Jim Harbaugh

Brian Sipe

Rob Johnson

Charlie Batch

Ken Anderson

Bobby Hebert

Matt Schaub

Neil O'Donnell

Jeff Hostetler

Jeff Kemp

Eric Hipple

Steve Spurrier

Matt Robinson

Wade Wilson

Dave Krieg
I didnt ask how many first year starters had a decent season. I asked as good as Anderson's, which most of the players on the list do not qualify.
Everyone on the first line had a better season.I think the majority of the people, especially at the top, had better seasons than Anderson on the second two lists. It's pretty debatable who is better than who, but I listed everyone that I thought could make a good argument for being better than Anderson.

You have to remember that era matters. Derek Anderson's numbers in 2007 aren't really amazing. If he put up those numbers in 1977, that's a different story.

I like Anderson a lot, and think he's got really good potential. But his '07 numbers standing alone aren't the reason.

 
How many first year starters have had a season as good as Anderson's?
Kurt WarnerDaunte Culpepper

Erik Kramer

Ken O'Brien

Mark Rypien

Chad Pennington

Boomer Esiason

Joe Montana

Roger Staubach

Philip Rivers

Michael Vick

Jay Schroeder

Jay Cutler

Greg Landry

Others:

Dan Marino

Tony Romo

Vince Ferragamo

James Harris

Pat Haden

Marc Bulger

Tony Eason

Ken Stabler

Ben Roethlisberger

Bob Lee

Other good season:

Trent Green

Jim Kelly

Brett Favre

Stan Humphries

Warren Moon

Jake Delhomme

Steve Beuerlein

Tom Brady

Randall Cunningham

Ty Detmer

Tommy Maddox

Dieter Brock

Jim Plunkett

Dennis Shaw

Jim Harbaugh

Brian Sipe

Rob Johnson

Charlie Batch

Ken Anderson

Bobby Hebert

Matt Schaub

Neil O'Donnell

Jeff Hostetler

Jeff Kemp

Eric Hipple

Steve Spurrier

Matt Robinson

Wade Wilson

Dave Krieg
I didnt ask how many first year starters had a decent season. I asked as good as Anderson's, which most of the players on the list do not qualify.
Everyone on the first line had a better season.
Derick Anderson - 3787 pass yards, 70 rush yards, 32 TD'sEveryone on the first line:

Kurt Warner

Daunte Culpepper

Erik Kramer - 3838 pass yards, 35 rush yards, 30 TD's

Ken O'Brien - 3888 pass yards, 58 rush yards, 25 TD's

Mark Rypien - 3768 pass yards, 56 rush yards, 23 TD's

Chad Pennington - 3120 pass yards, 29 rush yards, 24 TD's

Boomer Esiason - 3443 pass yards, 79 rush yards, 28 TD's

Joe Montana - 3565 pass yards, 95 rush yards, 21 TD's

Roger Staubach - 1882 pass yards, 343 rush yards, 17 TD's

Philip Rivers - 3388 pass yards, 49 rush yards, 22 TD's

Michael Vick

Jay Schroeder - 4109 pass yards, 47 rush yards, 23 TD's

Jay Cutler - 3497 pass yards, 205 rush yards 21 TD's

Greg Landry - 2237 pass yards, 530 rush yards, 19 TD's

Well, if by everyone you mean 3 of the 14, then you are right. However, if you use the same definition of the word "everyone" as most people do, you would be horribly incorrect.

 
How many first year starters have had a season as good as Anderson's?
Kurt WarnerDaunte Culpepper

Erik Kramer

Ken O'Brien

Mark Rypien

Chad Pennington

Boomer Esiason

Joe Montana

Roger Staubach

Philip Rivers

Michael Vick

Jay Schroeder

Jay Cutler

Greg Landry

Others:

Dan Marino

Tony Romo

Vince Ferragamo

James Harris

Pat Haden

Marc Bulger

Tony Eason

Ken Stabler

Ben Roethlisberger

Bob Lee

Other good season:

Trent Green

Jim Kelly

Brett Favre

Stan Humphries

Warren Moon

Jake Delhomme

Steve Beuerlein

Tom Brady

Randall Cunningham

Ty Detmer

Tommy Maddox

Dieter Brock

Jim Plunkett

Dennis Shaw

Jim Harbaugh

Brian Sipe

Rob Johnson

Charlie Batch

Ken Anderson

Bobby Hebert

Matt Schaub

Neil O'Donnell

Jeff Hostetler

Jeff Kemp

Eric Hipple

Steve Spurrier

Matt Robinson

Wade Wilson

Dave Krieg
I didnt ask how many first year starters had a decent season. I asked as good as Anderson's, which most of the players on the list do not qualify.
Everyone on the first line had a better season.
Derick Anderson - 3787 pass yards, 70 rush yards, 32 TD'sEveryone on the first line:

Kurt Warner

Daunte Culpepper

Erik Kramer - 3838 pass yards, 35 rush yards, 30 TD's

Ken O'Brien - 3888 pass yards, 58 rush yards, 25 TD's

Mark Rypien - 3768 pass yards, 56 rush yards, 23 TD's

Chad Pennington - 3120 pass yards, 29 rush yards, 24 TD's

Boomer Esiason - 3443 pass yards, 79 rush yards, 28 TD's

Joe Montana - 3565 pass yards, 95 rush yards, 21 TD's

Roger Staubach - 1882 pass yards, 343 rush yards, 17 TD's

Philip Rivers - 3388 pass yards, 49 rush yards, 22 TD's

Michael Vick

Jay Schroeder - 4109 pass yards, 47 rush yards, 23 TD's

Jay Cutler - 3497 pass yards, 205 rush yards 21 TD's

Greg Landry - 2237 pass yards, 530 rush yards, 19 TD's

Well, if by everyone you mean 3 of the 14, then you are right. However, if you use the same definition of the word "everyone" as most people do, you would be horribly incorrect.
Yes, Anderson's season of zero interceptions was very impressive.
 

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