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Concerns about Calvin Johnson (1 Viewer)

Jeff Haseley

Jeff Haseley

Moderator
Somebody offer some counterpoints, because I have several reasons why I think Calvin Johnson is a big question mark this week and possibly the rest of the season.

1. Detroit's offense in last three games - 13, 7 and 10 points scored. All season long Detroit WRs have only 4 red zone targets

2. Kitna out - injured or benched, you make the call. Dan Orlavsky is in. Possibly Drew Stanton. Either way, there's a lack of experience

3. Roy Williams - out. Teams will double or at least focus on Calvin Johnson.

4. Calvin Johnson's concussion last week. Any lingering effects? Is he hiding anything from media or coaches? Is he truly fit to play?

5. Johnson's targets have decreased. 32 in the first three games, only 13 in his last two. Two stinker FP games of 4.0 and 1.6 in two of his last three games @SF, vs. CHI

 
Agreed 100%. Your points are dead-on. Not to mention the play calling is questionable at best and he still isn't being utilized entirely the right way. Kitna and Roy Williams are so much better than anyone gives them credit for. Calvin is in for a very long 9 remaining games. He is going to be double covered, even triple covered at others, and safeties are going to roll up on him constantly. Let's be honest - there isnt s spec of offensive talent on that team now that 2of their 3 best playmakers are done for the year. He is going to get drilled hard a few more times this year and his toughness will be tested. Couple that with the fact that he is already very physical and i actually could see him dinged up frequently for the rest of the year. The rants and raves about how many targets he will get are overhyped. Targets dont mean anything if they aren't catchable and i fear no matter what they put back there between Orlvsky and Stanton it's going to be a nightmare. This team has a good chance of not inning 1 game this year.

 
I can't disagree Jeff. Calvin's arrow is pointed down in redraft. The only point you made that I think is an abberation is the targets for the last two games. His targets are in for a serious spike from 6.5 per. I disagree about "times targeted" being overhyped. A target is an opportunity for stats to happen, and that's never a bad thing.

 
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We'll have to see, but I'm going to try to be more positive here. His targets will increase, simply because he is the Lions' best (only?) offensive weapon. The guy is a physical freak who will make some catches even while draped by CBs and Safeties. I think he will put up top 10 WR numbers, perhaps top 5. Sure I own him, so I have blinders on. But I'm reasonably optimistic.

 
Jeff,

I share many of your concerns, but one huge counterpoint is garbage time. The Lions will likely lead the league in garbage time this season, and so long as teams are three scores up, they don't care so much about taking away one specific player; rather, they try to prevent quick scores. We're all going to see how this goes starting tomorrow, but 4th quarter scores could be the difference between a WR2/3 type performance and a low WR1 performance from Calvin the rest of the season.

 
timschochet said:
We'll have to see, but I'm going to try to be more positive here. His targets will increase, simply because he is the Lions' best (only?) offensive weapon. The guy is a physical freak who will make some catches even while draped by CBs and Safeties. I think he will put up top 10 WR numbers, perhaps top 5. Sure I own him, so I have blinders on. But I'm reasonably optimistic.
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I'm a Calvin backer so I'm on your team with this one but top 5 just isn't realistic. Top 10 the rest of the way would be the lotto. I'm counting on top 15. If Calvin can hang with the rest of the #2 WR's for the rest of the year - that'd be success.
 
I feel like we're walking on eggs shells each week with Calvin Johnson...we're hoping for a decent game because of all the reasons mentioned earlier in this thread. His production fantasy stat wise is likened to the current stock market. I can't get overly excited, too many variables, but sha never know :lmao:

It's like just get me a score and 76 yards versus stud status of catching 7-10 balls going over 100 yards, occasional multiple TD games, which we hoped for when buying in. I temper my expectations...again hoping for the best crossing my fingers like Eddie, the caddy in The Greatest Game Ever Played :thumbup:

Barry Sanders found a way to produce through the disaster of ownership and management, having defenses key on him, until he had enough.

 
don't have the stats to prove it, but seems to me when a backup QB is suddenly put into a starting roll, he tends to lock onto the clear #1 on a given team. Maybe its because he's not polished enough to make all his reads, or maybe feels the pressure to get the #1 WR the ball (because let's face it, that is why #1s are paid what they are) I think Calvin will surprise a lot of people, assuming he does get the increase in targets. Unless double teams can start using ladders, I still think he's almost uncoverable, especially around the end zone.

 
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You can't beat double-teams unless you have a QB that can throw balls into tight spaces.

Dan Orlovsky has yet to prove to me that he can do this with any degree of consistency.

If I'm game-planning to play the Lions, the recipe to beat them seems pretty straight-forward. Double-team Calvin all day, blitz Orlovsky with regularity and let Smith/Rudi/Furrey/McDonald prove they can win games.

Given the fact that the Lions couldn't come close to winning with Roy Williams in the fold, I see things getting a whole lot worse before they get better.

This isn't just lip service, I'm sitting Calvin for Eddie Royal this week.

 
The Jerk said:
Jeff,

I share many of your concerns, but one huge counterpoint is garbage time. The Lions will likely lead the league in garbage time this season, and so long as teams are three scores up, they don't care so much about taking away one specific player; rather, they try to prevent quick scores. We're all going to see how this goes starting tomorrow, but 4th quarter scores could be the difference between a WR2/3 type performance and a low WR1 performance from Calvin the rest of the season.
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This is a good point, especially about not caring as much when in prevent or "we're up by 28" defense. Great points all around. Keep them coming. I'm thinking that Calvin Johnson will have some games where he has 6 recs for 80 yards and other games where he has 7 recs for 97 yards and a TD. The 7th catch being a score in the 4th quarter or no 7th catch thanks to a 4th quarter INT. One thing that stands out though is you can't score if you can't convert on third down. If Detroit can't sustain drives, either due to INT or simple ineffectiveness on third down, it will mean fewer offensive scoring chances. His very good games could come when he has 4 catches already in the first half, because you know he'll get garbage looks in the second half. Andre Johnson made a career out of this in Houston in his early years. We'll see... great insights, points and counterpoints so far.

 
Wouldn't touch him until Detroit gets a QB. I think he disappoints early career like Andre Johnson (and will be drafted way ahead of end of year finish). All the talent in the world means nothing w/o a QB.

 
Jeff Haseley said:
Somebody offer some counterpoints, because I have several reasons why I think Calvin Johnson is a big question mark this week and possibly the rest of the season.1. Detroit's offense in last three games - 13, 7 and 10 points scored. All season long Detroit WRs have only 4 red zone targets2. Kitna out - injured or benched, you make the call. Dan Orlavsky is in. Possibly Drew Stanton. Either way, there's a lack of experience3. Roy Williams - out. Teams will double or at least focus on Calvin Johnson.4. Calvin Johnson's concussion last week. Any lingering effects? Is he hiding anything from media or coaches? Is he truly fit to play?5. Johnson's targets have decreased. 32 in the first three games, only 13 in his last two. Two stinker FP games of 4.0 and 1.6 in two of his last three games @SF, vs. CHI
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1. They've played some pretty good defenses lately, the good news is it can't get much tougher.2. Kitna out hurts. I think Drew Stanton likes the deep ball, I look forward to Stanton and Calvin.3. Roy Williams out- That's a good thing. There's not enough balls to go around for the Lions team. Teams can go to prevent etc... and Calvin should eat it up, Roy not being there will only help.4. Don't know for sure5. This is why reason 3 is a good thing.
 
I'm not sure I agree with the idea that CJ is in trouble the rest of the way. McDonald and Furrey aren't bad receivers, and at least with RW gone, the offense can focus on trying to move the ball without placating RW.

 
millertyme1 said:
Wouldn't touch him until Detroit gets a QB. I think he disappoints early career like Andre Johnson (and will be drafted way ahead of end of year finish). All the talent in the world means nothing w/o a QB.
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I'm confused by this a bit. He just had a decent game with Orlovsky at QB making his first career start. 4 catches, 85 yards and a TD. I realize they just lost Roy, but he wasn't exactly producing at a high level. McDonald and Furrey aren't as "talented" as Roy, but they catch the football and will make some plays if they're in one on one coverage. With the expected increase in targets he should be able to produce around a low end WR1.
 
Jeff Haseley said:
Somebody offer some counterpoints, because I have several reasons why I think Calvin Johnson is a big question mark this week and possibly the rest of the season.1. Detroit's offense in last three games - 13, 7 and 10 points scored. All season long Detroit WRs have only 4 red zone targets2. Kitna out - injured or benched, you make the call. Dan Orlavsky is in. Possibly Drew Stanton. Either way, there's a lack of experience3. Roy Williams - out. Teams will double or at least focus on Calvin Johnson.4. Calvin Johnson's concussion last week. Any lingering effects? Is he hiding anything from media or coaches? Is he truly fit to play?5. Johnson's targets have decreased. 32 in the first three games, only 13 in his last two. Two stinker FP games of 4.0 and 1.6 in two of his last three games @SF, vs. CHI
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I agree with most of what you're saying (especially the concussion) but:- Won't Roy Williams' absence mean more targets,not fewer?- Maybe Calvin Johnson's targets went down because the Lions were trying to showcase Roy Williams, i.e. 17 targets one week.
 
McDonald and Furrey are both proven possession wr's that can consistently make difficult catches in soft coverage (i.e. difficult catches that can come from inexperienced qb's). I would expect CJ's looks to increase as the game goes on while defenses adjust for McDonald and Furrey.

From an attitude and effort standpoint, the optimistic point of view would be that the loss of Kitna and Roy Williams may be an addition by subtraction type turning point for the Lion's offense. It's just too bad (for CJ owners) that the Lion's don't have a veteran backup qb to turn to at this point.

 
LOL, a 96-yard TD pass in which he simply out ran the DB. No move, no nothing, all sprint with a perfect pass. Other than that, he has one end of the half desperation catch for 58 yards with :04 left. Two catches for 154 yards, LOL. The fantasy luck is with him this week.

 
Jeff Haseley said:
LOL, a 96-yard TD pass in which he simply out ran the DB. No move, no nothing, all sprint with a perfect pass. Other than that, he has one end of the half desperation catch for 58 yards with :04 left. Two catches for 154 yards, LOL. The fantasy luck is with him this week.
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Point is, if they throw to him, he'll catch it. He's uncoverable. :goodposting:
 
Ripleys said:
Jeff Haseley said:
LOL, a 96-yard TD pass in which he simply out ran the DB. No move, no nothing, all sprint with a perfect pass. Other than that, he has one end of the half desperation catch for 58 yards with :04 left. Two catches for 154 yards, LOL. The fantasy luck is with him this week.
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Point is, if they throw to him, he'll catch it. He's uncoverable. :goodposting:
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I see your point, but its not that they haven't thrown to him. They have. Unsure on the target totals right now, but he can barely finish a route, before Orlovsky is pressure to pass - usually too early and therefore incomplete. It's garbage time now. He'll probably get 2-3 more catches.
 
I don't know what to make of today's game. You'd think teams would focus on not letting him get deep on them since he's the only real weapon they have left.

I was expecting something like 12 targets resulting in something like 6/96 and maybe a score. His actual stat line is absurd. They're going to need to find more ways to get him the ball if he's going to be consistent going forward.

 
Despite his obvious talent, Calvin is going to struggle a little bit. He ended up having an outstanding day (FF-wise), but Calvin is going to have a tough time putting up consistent numbers, mostly due to a combination of intense coverage & a lack of talent at QB. Stanton might help matters if he gets in there.

Bottom line...unless their QB situation improves, I look for Calvin to disappoint the rest of the way.

 
Calvin needs an OC, an HC and a QB. Moronelli is an embarrassment. Should be gone before next year and he can take that hack OC with him.

 
I didn't see the game today but I'm more encouraged about 'Tron going forward than I was yesterday. I realize the Lions were playing the Texans, but at least from what I can gather from the stats they seemed intent on establishing other offensive options aside from Johnson. They ran the ball 20 times even though they were well behind from the start. Furrey contributed with 6/89. Kevin Smith had a decent game. Develping other options will be key for Calvin to succeed.

Perhaps homers can chime in here, but did Orlovsky look terrible? Is there a decent chance that he can improve as the season progresses or is he hopeless? Maybe the team even feels a sense of relief that Roy is gone? I'm just throwing some gut feelings out there (and perhaps trying to convince myself that my trade for Calvin 2 weeks ago will pay off!) , but I am definately more encouraged than I was yesterday.

 
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RamMan said:
I didn't see the game today but I'm more encouraged about 'Tron going forward than I was yesterday. I realize the Lions were playing the Texans, but at least from what I can gather from the stats they seemed intent on establishing other offensive options aside from Johnson. They ran the ball 20 times even though they were well behind from the start. Furrey contributed with 6/89. Kevin Smith had a decent game. Develping other options will be key for Calvin to succeed. Perhaps homers can chime in here, but did Orlovsky look terrible? Is there a decent chance that he can improve as the season progresses or is he hopeless? Maybe the team even feels a sense of relief that Roy is gone? I'm just throwing some gut feelings out there (and perhaps trying to convince myself that my trade for Calvin 2 weeks ago will pay off!) , but I am definately more encouraged than I was yesterday.
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You can be optimistic if you want, but that was the last easy game for the lions.
 
It's pretty simple to me...they have to throw Calvin the ball. He was surrounded on the hail mary and caught it over the top of everyone. The long TD pass he just blew by the coverage. The 2 point conversion, he was doubled. I think he only had 3 targets. They have to throw him the ball and let him make some plays. He is virtually uncoverable, especially on balls thrown high, like the 2 point conversion. Nobody on any defense that I have seen can go that high to catch the ball. The real stud WRs can make plays despite double coverage. Moss does. Owens does. Andre does. The reason they do is because they get targets.

Look at it anyways you want, but despite a couple of clunker games and a lack of targets, Calvin should be in or close to the top 10 after this week. Makes me wonder what he will do when they throw him the ball. The thought is downright scary.

 
Anthony Borbely said:
It's pretty simple to me...they have to throw Calvin the ball. He was surrounded on the hail mary and caught it over the top of everyone. The long TD pass he just blew by the coverage. The 2 point conversion, he was doubled. I think he only had 3 targets. They have to throw him the ball and let him make some plays. He is virtually uncoverable, especially on balls thrown high, like the 2 point conversion. Nobody on any defense that I have seen can go that high to catch the ball. The real stud WRs can make plays despite double coverage. Moss does. Owens does. Andre does. The reason they do is because they get targets.

Look at it anyways you want, but despite a couple of clunker games and a lack of targets, Calvin should be in or close to the top 10 after this week. Makes me wonder what he will do when they throw him the ball. The thought is downright scary.
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He wasnt really covered all that tight, and he didnt catch it over anyone. They guy who had the tightest coverage looked like he let CJ catch it in front of him just so he could tackle him.
 
As bad as this offense is, I just dont see how this freak doesnt make at least one huge play a game.

 
With the first pick of the NFL draft the Lions select...........guessing a QB but would love for them to get a WR just so you can see the :lmao:

 
can't believe they didn't throw to him more considering how much he was 1 on 1. the commentator continually talked about it. Orlovsky needs to take his head out of his ###

 
RBM said:
As bad as this offense is, I just dont see how this freak doesnt make at least one huge play a game.
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And this is my problem as a Calvin owner. I benched him for Jerricho today and save 40 seconds of a 60 minute football game I feel like I made the right decision. At any rate, he's officially unbenchable for me the rest of the year because Calvin can "happen" on any given play. Texans or not.
 
The Kitties were playing a terrible Houston defense and he only got two catches. His talent is undeniable but on a bad team that does not always matter. I am a CJ owner and I will continue starting him as our league starts four WRs and I don't have the depth to bench him. However, I have lowered my expectations for CJ. I targeted him this year as a top 5 guy. Now he will be hit-or-miss and finish in the 15-20 range.

As for uncoverable - everyone is coverable if you commit enough people. As a Vikings fan I saw more than a few games where the defense would put 2-3 guys on Moss and kept his impact to a minimum. And if you don't have a real quarterback and no other real weapons any WR has a chance to be shut down for a game.

Since Brady went down Randy Moss has three games of less than 30 yards with no touchdowns. He also has two very good games. I expect CJ to experience the same kind of ups and downs.

 
HornedOne said:
As for uncoverable - everyone is coverable if you commit enough people. As a Vikings fan I saw more than a few games where the defense would put 2-3 guys on Moss and kept his impact to a minimum. And if you don't have a real quarterback and no other real weapons any WR has a chance to be shut down for a game.
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And how did Moss wind up doing? He still got his. The great ones always do eventually. You can't cover them every single play no matter how hard you try. No WR can light it up every week, but when all is said and done, they wind up putting up studly numbers.
 
Not sure I fully understand. So he had 170 and a TD and people are saying

"oh it's a bad defense"

"he has nobody to throw him the ball"

Didn't he have 170 and a touchdown???

 
Anthony Borbely said:
HornedOne said:
As for uncoverable - everyone is coverable if you commit enough people. As a Vikings fan I saw more than a few games where the defense would put 2-3 guys on Moss and kept his impact to a minimum. And if you don't have a real quarterback and no other real weapons any WR has a chance to be shut down for a game.
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And how did Moss wind up doing? He still got his. The great ones always do eventually. You can't cover them every single play no matter how hard you try. No WR can light it up every week, but when all is said and done, they wind up putting up studly numbers.
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I give you Moss' numbers when he was on a bad team with a lousy QB:2005 Oakland 16 games 60 catches 1005 yds 8 TDs2006 Oakland 13 games 42 catches 553 yds 3 TDs Terrible? Not necessarily. Top 5? Hell no. Sometimes great is not enough.As I said, I'm a CJ owner and I will keep starting him. But my expectations are down quite a bit.
 
HornedOne said:
Anthony Borbely said:
HornedOne said:
As for uncoverable - everyone is coverable if you commit enough people. As a Vikings fan I saw more than a few games where the defense would put 2-3 guys on Moss and kept his impact to a minimum. And if you don't have a real quarterback and no other real weapons any WR has a chance to be shut down for a game.
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And how did Moss wind up doing? He still got his. The great ones always do eventually. You can't cover them every single play no matter how hard you try. No WR can light it up every week, but when all is said and done, they wind up putting up studly numbers.
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I give you Moss' numbers when he was on a bad team with a lousy QB:2005 Oakland 16 games 60 catches 1005 yds 8 TDs2006 Oakland 13 games 42 catches 553 yds 3 TDs Terrible? Not necessarily. Top 5? Hell no. Sometimes great is not enough.As I said, I'm a CJ owner and I will keep starting him. But my expectations are down quite a bit.
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Moss was not always healthy and had a bad attitude when he was in Oakland. He mailed it in there.
 
cowboysin07 said:
Not sure I fully understand. So he had 170 and a TD and people are saying"oh it's a bad defense""he has nobody to throw him the ball"Didn't he have 170 and a touchdown???
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I'm not sure I fully understand. Are you saying that this being done against the Texans defense (30th in pts allowed) and Orlovsky completing less than 50% of his passes with a 59 QB rating heading into today aren't reason for concern going forward...simply because Calvin caught 170-1 today?Listen, I'm a Calvin owner so I'm on your team here. But you've got blinders on if you're looking at the way he arrived at this statline as standard.
 
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Anthony Borbely said:
HornedOne said:
Anthony Borbely said:
HornedOne said:
As for uncoverable - everyone is coverable if you commit enough people. As a Vikings fan I saw more than a few games where the defense would put 2-3 guys on Moss and kept his impact to a minimum. And if you don't have a real quarterback and no other real weapons any WR has a chance to be shut down for a game.
Click to expand...
And how did Moss wind up doing? He still got his. The great ones always do eventually. You can't cover them every single play no matter how hard you try. No WR can light it up every week, but when all is said and done, they wind up putting up studly numbers.
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I give you Moss' numbers when he was on a bad team with a lousy QB:2005 Oakland 16 games 60 catches 1005 yds 8 TDs2006 Oakland 13 games 42 catches 553 yds 3 TDs Terrible? Not necessarily. Top 5? Hell no. Sometimes great is not enough.As I said, I'm a CJ owner and I will keep starting him. But my expectations are down quite a bit.
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Moss was not always healthy and had a bad attitude when he was in Oakland. He mailed it in there.
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In 2006 that was mostly true (though something called Andrew Walter had a big effect on the receiving numbers).But in 2005 he played all 16 games and spent plenty of time talking about how the trade rejuvenated him. FWIW - Moss is currently on a pace for 960 yards and 6.4 TDs. Reportedly he is healthy and has a good attitude. :rolleyes:
 
FantasyTrader said:
cowboysin07 said:
Not sure I fully understand. So he had 170 and a TD and people are saying"oh it's a bad defense""he has nobody to throw him the ball"Didn't he have 170 and a touchdown???
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I'm not sure I fully understand. Are you saying that this being done against the Texans defense (30th in pts allowed) and Orlovsky completing less than 50% of his passes with a 59 QB rating heading into today aren't reason for concern going forward...simply because Calvin caught 170-1 today?Listen, I'm a Calvin owner so I'm on your team here. But you've got blinders on if you're looking at the way he arrived at this statline as standard.
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yeah, I see that and you make good points. I guess I'm just thinking you are looking at a bad D team and look at his targets. I can see top 10 for him.
 
cowboysin07 said:
FantasyTrader said:
cowboysin07 said:
Not sure I fully understand. So he had 170 and a TD and people are saying"oh it's a bad defense""he has nobody to throw him the ball"Didn't he have 170 and a touchdown???
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I fully understand. Are you saying that this being done against the Texans defense (30th in pts allowed) and Orlovsky completing less than 50% of his passes with a 59 QB rating heading into today aren't reason for concern going forward...simply because Calvin caught 170-1 today?Listen, I'm a Calvin owner so I'm on your team here. But you've got blinders on if you're looking at the way he arrived at this statline as standard.
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yeah, I see that and you make good points. I guess I'm just thinking you are looking at a bad D team and look at his targets. I can see top 10 for him.
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Hey I'm with ya brother. I sure as heck hope you're right and I'm wrong. I'd LOVE to eat my words on this one.
 
One concern I have as a Calvin Johnson owner in two leagues is Orlovsky hanging him out and him taking a hit. On the deep pass before the half he was pretty vunerable on that pass. Orlovsky was throwing high all game.

 
W1cked said:
One concern I have as a Calvin Johnson owner in two leagues is Orlovsky hanging him out and him taking a hit. On the deep pass before the half he was pretty vunerable on that pass. Orlovsky was throwing high all game.
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it was a hail mary :unsure:
 
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