Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Jerious Norwood (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter biggamer3
- Start date
spacevan
Footballguy
If I were you I would stay away from anything and everything Falcon. With Harrington at the helm Defenses will stack, hence no running game. Dunn probably figured it was a good time to go ahead and get surgery since their season is over. Watch em tank to try to get a first round pick. Or, the team rallys and says "we're more than Vick", they put Shockley in half way through the season and they make it as a wild card.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
don't sell out on dunn quite so fast. espn is reporting 3-4 weeks. the season doesn't start for another 7 weeks, he's a tough ******* & i see him getting 200-250 carries(his norm) with a career average of 4.2/carry that's 800-1100 yards plus receptions & he should get more TD's without the dogkiller in the backfield with him. says a hopefull dunn owner. 
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
I tend to agree with this. The surgery happened with enough time for Dunn to still hold close to whatever value you had for him.
Last edited by a moderator:
ESPN would knowdon't sell out on dunn quite so fast. espn is reporting 3-4 weeks. the season doesn't start for another 7 weeks, he's a tough ******* & i see him getting 200-250 carries(his norm) with a career average of 4.2/carry that's 800-1100 yards plus receptions & he should get more TD's without the dogkiller in the backfield with him. says a hopefull dunn owner.
and if they don't - they'll just make it up.was Pasta-Belly the source?This is typical of what eventually happens to most NFL RBs. Dunn had major shoulder surgery after last season. Now he needs back surgery. His body is beggining to break down. I still expect him to play a significant role this season, however it will be a dimishing role from previous years. I expect Norwood's workload to increase. Both back will get touches, but I think that theri roles will be reversed from last year.
I am not sure how the QB situation changes things. It isn't like defenses last year weren't putting an extra defender in the box. A new coach, new offense could go either way.
I'd bump up Norwood a round or two (say 5 or 6) and drop Dunn a round or two (say round 8).
I am not sure how the QB situation changes things. It isn't like defenses last year weren't putting an extra defender in the box. A new coach, new offense could go either way.
I'd bump up Norwood a round or two (say 5 or 6) and drop Dunn a round or two (say round 8).
sholditch
Footballguy
Broke down the numbers in another thread:
Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.
If Shockley wins the job in training camp, I would expect those numbers to drop down to about 275-260. The fact that they are now saying four weeks (not sure I beleive it) could mean more like a 50-50 split, but honestly, if this isn't the season to transition to the back of the future, when is? Not like they really have a shot now.
Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.
If Shockley wins the job in training camp, I would expect those numbers to drop down to about 275-260. The fact that they are now saying four weeks (not sure I beleive it) could mean more like a 50-50 split, but honestly, if this isn't the season to transition to the back of the future, when is? Not like they really have a shot now.
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
How do we know new HC Petrino wants to run the ball 537 times again this year? I know their passing attack isn't anything to write home about, but the Falcons had a top 5 rushing attack with Mora, didn't make the playoffs and he got axed. I'm not sure Petrino is going to come in and do the same thing especially without Vick and his running ability.
sholditch
Footballguy
Umm, what else are they going to do. Rely on Harrington? A totally untested guy in Shockley or Redman? Or do you just envision them forfeiting a lot of games? Joking aside, I really don't think they have many options, and running the ball is the one thing this team does well. Don't you think a new coach, especially given the poostorm he walked into, would want to rely on their strengths?
There's a better discussion about this going on here:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=329028
There's a better discussion about this going on here:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=329028
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
With no Vick to worry about, why wouldn't you just put 8 in the box and force the QB to beat you then? I'm not saying that they shouldn't run the ball nor be effective when they do, but arguably their best runner is gone, a new head coach is in who may or may not favor the power running game that Atlanta used so well with Vick and Mora and you're relying on a back that has never carried the load before assuming Dunn doesn't come back in time. Even if he does, the whole Atlanta situation seems pretty bleak from an FF perspective since the water is pretty murky about how long Dunn will be gone for. This seems like an overreaction until Dunn's return is nailed down better.
sholditch
Footballguy
never carried the load in the NFL because he's never gotten the opportunity. He was the only offense at Missy State for three years, faced 8 in the box literally every game because their QBs made Joey Harrington look like Peyton Manning, and this was in the SEC, the toughest defensive conference in the nation. Going up against guys like DeMeco Ryans, Patrick Willis, Greg Blue, Roman Harper, Mark Anderson, etc. This was discussed in the other thread.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
If anything, this means Dunn is going to represent great value later in the draft.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
How many of the Vick "rushes" were passing plays where he took off. Those will not go to Norwood.
Wu-banger
Footballguy
most likely they would be Harrington sacks / incompletes... leading to a longer play on downs , and another passing attempt.. further limiting any RB's value in ATL.
Ford Prefect
Footballguy
I don't think you can compare the 2 situations that simply. It won't be just that they are pass plays that turned into runs and it won't be just broken pass plays (although there will be plenty with Harrington at the helm). No matter what the end result is, the play calling will be different when comparing Vick vs. Harrington since they are completely different types of QBs. Anyway, with a new coach and system, the play calling was going to be different regardless of who is playing QB.As for Dunn, it seems based on this news that he will be back by the beginning of the season. I was under the impression even before this news that Norwood was going to play a more significant role. Since it looks like Dunn will be ready for the regular season, I wouldn't bump Norwood's value up much more than I already had based on the assumption that his role was going to increase anyway.Wu-banger said:
John Mamula
Moderator
in a wcoff satellite last night i grabbed him at 4.04. he may have lasted into round 5, but not likely until 5.09.
i thought that norwood was close to 4th round production as it was before knowing anything substantive on dunn. this is the beginning of dunn's age catching up with him. i should get 3rd round if not 2nd round RB production out of him.
i am happy.
i thought that norwood was close to 4th round production as it was before knowing anything substantive on dunn. this is the beginning of dunn's age catching up with him. i should get 3rd round if not 2nd round RB production out of him.
i am happy.
Dunn ready by the start of the season? I think he will need to get into football shape after he heals from surgery. Dunn is a small back who took too many carries the last 2 years and I think the coaching staff lower his carries this year. I see a 60/40 split with Norwood getting the 60. I also think the coaches will find many ways to throw a lot of dump passes and screens to Norwood as some ways to get Norwood in the open field. Either way, Norwood gets at least 15 carries and 3-5 passes a game IMO.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
I think Norwood is absolutely going to blow the lid off of most folks' projections this season. Steal him while you can.
Restricted
Footballguy
I was listening to some radio program yesterday and they were discussing Vick and the Falcons and the possibility that they may have allready written off this season. If this is the case, I see Patrino playing Norwood more, even with Dunn back just to see what he has. Norwood should have all the opportunity this season, now well have to see if he has the skillz.
LBH
Footballguy
I think Jason Snelling will get some chances to show us something this preseason. If Dunn is going to be missing time the next 4 weeks, I could see them using Snelling either as a pass catching fullback or a short yardage tailback. Im surprised he isnt mentioned more becuase Im pretty sure I read an article a while back saying that Petrinos intention was already to use Snelling as a GL back.
Last edited by a moderator:
Rev
Footballguy
Unless Vick pulls an OJ, this means 2 things:1. The attention that Vick drew will now be devoted to stopping running backs and closing lanes.
2. A young man named Joseph Harrinton is now the starting QB in Atlanta.
Does anyone here really think that Norwood will average anywhere 6 yards per carry with Joey at the helm?
obxlegends
Footballguy
Norwood wouldn't avg 6 yards a pop no matter who the QB is this season. Despite a popular opinion on this board I don't think Harrington being QB hurts Norwood. Most teams employed a "spy" to guard Vick as apart of their defense. That's one more defender who may or may not be in the box compared to before. Norwood could easily be in that 4.2/4.3sh range.1050 yards rushing. 6 TD's.Unless Vick pulls an OJ, this means 2 things:
1. The attention that Vick drew will now be devoted to stopping running backs and closing lanes.
2. A young man named Joseph Harrinton is now the starting QB in Atlanta.
Does anyone here really think that Norwood will average anywhere 6 yards per carry with Joey at the helm?
Rev
Footballguy
Wow. I could be wrong, but I think the absence of a QB spy allows more defensive focus upon RBs, especially when the QB replacing Vick isn't even as good of a passer as Vick was (which isn't saying much).Norwood wouldn't avg 6 yards a pop no matter who the QB is this season. Despite a popular opinion on this board I don't think Harrington being QB hurts Norwood. Most teams employed a "spy" to guard Vick as apart of their defense. That's one more defender who may or may not be in the box compared to before. Norwood could easily be in that 4.2/4.3sh range.1050 yards rushing. 6 TD's.
1. The attention that Vick drew will now be devoted to stopping running backs and closing lanes.
2. A young man named Joseph Harrinton is now the starting QB in Atlanta.
Does anyone here really think that Norwood will average anywhere 6 yards per carry with Joey at the helm?
obxlegends
Footballguy
Tampa Bay, for example, used to have Derrick Brooks spy Vick. Brooks would stay in the box and attack the handoff on a running play and spy Vick if not. He didn't react to defensive shifts. He didn't have to because after a fake handoff Vick was apt to run as much as he passed. With Harrington this isn't a worry. So now you can motion Brooks (for example) out the box. You can go 3 or 4 WR's or split out the TE. Most teams will choose to defend that as opposed to stacking the box. That is of course until Atlanta's RB's make them pay. If they do at all.Wow. I could be wrong, but I think the absence of a QB spy allows more defensive focus upon RBs, especially when the QB replacing Vick isn't even as good of a passer as Vick was (which isn't saying much).Norwood wouldn't avg 6 yards a pop no matter who the QB is this season. Despite a popular opinion on this board I don't think Harrington being QB hurts Norwood. Most teams employed a "spy" to guard Vick as apart of their defense. That's one more defender who may or may not be in the box compared to before. Norwood could easily be in that 4.2/4.3sh range.1050 yards rushing. 6 TD's.Unless Vick pulls an OJ, this means 2 things:
1. The attention that Vick drew will now be devoted to stopping running backs and closing lanes.
2. A young man named Joseph Harrinton is now the starting QB in Atlanta.
Does anyone here really think that Norwood will average anywhere 6 yards per carry with Joey at the helm?
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
Don't get too ga-ga over Norwood. If Dunn isn't healthy, I can see the Falcons making a move for Corey Dillon.
faulkfan
Footballguy
I personally see all the ATL players taking a hit other than possible Horn and Jenkins. Dunn drops because he is old and hurting. Norwood drops, IMHO, because defenses won't have to worry about Vick taking off. Harrington just isn't good. But the WRs might be a little better off with a QB who might put a fw more balls within reach.With this whole debacle surrounding Vick, and by default the Falcons, I will be avoiding ATL players this year.
hephner
Footballguy
Everyone keeps talking about the spy, which is a very valid point, but I think the most important point here is the defensive playcalling for the D-line. I think most defenses employed the "DE contain" strategy the majority of the time, in addition to a spy, to try to keep Vick inside the pocket, and not allowing him to get outside where he could create in space. That, along with the Falcons misdirection running plays (and Vick was also a big reason why these were so effective), opened up a LOT of inside running lanes for the backs. Dunn is a fantastic cutback runner who was really able to take advantage of the holes this created. That all goes away now (or will at least be far less effective), and like some have mentioned, the focus on stopping the run will be a big challenge for Norwood.Tampa Bay, for example, used to have Derrick Brooks spy Vick. Brooks would stay in the box and attack the handoff on a running play and spy Vick if not. He didn't react to defensive shifts. He didn't have to because after a fake handoff Vick was apt to run as much as he passed. With Harrington this isn't a worry. So now you can motion Brooks (for example) out the box. You can go 3 or 4 WR's or split out the TE. Most teams will choose to defend that as opposed to stacking the box. That is of course until Atlanta's RB's make them pay. If they do at all.Wow. I could be wrong, but I think the absence of a QB spy allows more defensive focus upon RBs, especially when the QB replacing Vick isn't even as good of a passer as Vick was (which isn't saying much).Norwood wouldn't avg 6 yards a pop no matter who the QB is this season. Despite a popular opinion on this board I don't think Harrington being QB hurts Norwood. Most teams employed a "spy" to guard Vick as apart of their defense. That's one more defender who may or may not be in the box compared to before. Norwood could easily be in that 4.2/4.3sh range.1050 yards rushing. 6 TD's.
1. The attention that Vick drew will now be devoted to stopping running backs and closing lanes.
2. A young man named Joseph Harrinton is now the starting QB in Atlanta.
Does anyone here really think that Norwood will average anywhere 6 yards per carry with Joey at the helm?
My concern with Norwood is his value on draft day. Based on the recovery time being reported on Dunn's injury, Norwood will be featured during preseason, and if he performs well his ADP will rise (maybe into the 3rd round) to a point where I wouldn't be comfortable drafting him given that I expect Dunn to come back. Norwood is the type of guy who can break a couple 80 yard TD runs in preseason and get all FF'ers excited to the point where his ADP doesn't present value on draft day.
Similar threads
