Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hello there boys and girls. It is that time of year again. This year will be better than ever as I am being awarded a little help. Thru many wonderful PMs from all of you encouraging this I figured why not. There will be a co-Oddsmaker this season who has offered to shoulder the load a little bit as we press on thru the season.
Let’s start with some ground rules. The Oddsmaker will post the spreads according to what the majority line is at the Vegas Casinos at the time these are released. They are taken from a website that I am not going to plug in this thread. All Oddsmaker decisions are FINAL
You will pick 3 NFL games every week in which to play. They can either be the spreads themselves or I will include the over/under as I know many of you simply like to play those angles. All picks must be in no later than 5PM PST, 8PM EST Fridays…anything that is submitted afterwards will not count towards your record.
Want to know what we are playing for this year? First off we are playing for the official Ministry of Pain money holder(paper clip) and the official Footballguystalk Board Lighter(book of matches). I actually hope we can give away an FBG membership for someone next season…I had offers for that last year from different advertising/promotional folks and turned them down…but even if that does not occur I’ll kick in for it and make it happen.
So here’s how it is going to work. This exercise of sorts will run till week 11. Your best 8 weeks will count towards your score. Miss a week no problem, have a bad week no problem. At the end of those 8 weeks, those people that have a winning record will move on for the final 6 weeks of the season. There will be no “oops” weeks in those final 6 and we should have a clear winner at that point.
Why do this? Simple. NFL games are very hard to predict…I have said over the past several years that most people have no idea who is going to win on Sunday. The league has become very evenly matched and as you will see form the spreads this week there is hardly a blowout called for on the board(but there will be). As we go along and I highlight certain games you’ll understand the thread a little more.
Ready to jump to the games? Me too.
Not a valid pick this week
Miami at Pittsburgh (NL): There wasn’t a line on this game in most of the casinos I looked at, I think it’s best to leave it out this week. I think with Ben out Miami will win this game, they were 4 point underdogs before Big Ben went down.
Miami 17…Pittsburgh 14
Denver (-4) at St Louis (47.5): OK, Denver was supposed to punk Miami on the road in the opener last season…didn’t happen. Denver is about 5-7 wins better than St Louis. They should be able to score enough to win this game easy however Denver does not have the greatest indoor track record lately. There are better plays on the board IMO.
Denver 27…St Louis 20
NYJets at Tennessee (-3) (37): I wouldn’t touch the game with a 10 foot pole. Anyone betting on this game has a serious gambling problem or is a fan of one of the 2 teams. I can tell you the Jets have not opened on the road too well the past couple of years. TN has no offensive identity yet…stay away.
NYJets 16…Tennessee 10
Buffalo at New England (-9) (41): I don’t think Buffalo will get punked as bad this spread shows. NE has looked like a SB team in the preseason…no live bullets are flying. 9 is just too rich for me right now…always remember that a majority of NFL games are decided by 6 points or less and usually just a handful of plays make the difference.
New England 24…Buffalo 17
Baltimore at Tampa Bay (-3) (35): Being a Bucsfan it’s hard to be objective here but I like the game and I like the Bucs at home. Baltimore suffered thru a ton of injuries last season and Mcnair has done alright in his limited encounters in Tampa…however I still like the Bucs to rally around their defense and put enough up on offense to win this game somewhat easily.
Tampa Bay 21…Baltimore 13
Cincinnati at Kansas City (-3) (46): DO I need to tell you about KC and home openers, yada yada yada. This is going to be one of the early game I really want to sit down and watch. I think the Bengals will be surprised by how much teams will want to “get up” to play them. I think the game will be close with a lot of offense. I will not be betting this though.
Kansas City 31 Cincinnati 30…maybe the over in this one…maybe.
Seattle (-6)at Detroit (46): I don’t like this line, I think the game will actually be a little closer than some might think…Seattle has the SB hangover as they say. Look for Seattle to put Detroit away late in this contest.
Seattle 23…Detroit 20
Atlanta at Carolina (-5) (41.5): I like this game despit that rich 5 points I have to lay. Carolina is at home, they have a great defense and plenty of offense to take care of Atlanta. The Falcons have been moving pieces in and out of their offense as late as last week. Duckett was sent packing, Lelie was brought in last week, Crumpler was nursing an injury most of preseason…I think the Falcons will play hard in the 1st half but figure out in the 2nd half just how far away they are from the Panthers right now.
Carolina 34…Atlanta 16
Philly (-4) at Houston (39): I hate laying points on the road but I like Philly this weekend to get started on the right foot. Philly has really started to come around thru the preseason and they look real sharp. Try and remember this team prior to TO…they were NFC contenders 3 straight years. McNabb looks completely healthy and ready to roll. Houston is still a bad team and I’ll take a good team to cover over a bad team to play within almost all the time.
Philly 24…Houston 13
New Orleans at Cleveland (-3) (37.5): I am simply not betting on the Saints till they have their home back. Not gonna do it. I watched “When the Levess Broke” on HBO…you can catch it On Demand right now…Reggie Bush has a great Coastas interview this week as well. I just hope the people of NO can someday return to what was theirs…seems so unfair. Good luck NO, sorry Brownies but I pull for the Saints right now.
New Orleans 3…Cleveland 2 Reggie Bush will pitch his 1st save of the season.
Dallas at Jacksonville (-2.5) (36.5): I like Dallas to win the game outright. Jax is a good team but has inexperienced WR corp that will not help out Lefty against a very tough Dallas defense. Low scoring affair, TO makes 1 big play in the game that turns it around.
Dallas 20…Jacksonville 16
Chicago (-3.5) at Green Bay (35): No respect for GB. I like the pack as a home opener dog. The bears have a good defense but that offense has a lot of work to do. Grossman is just gross.
Green Bay 27…Chicago 17
San Fran at Arizona (-7.5) (43): Put your nose up in the air…(sniff sniff)…you smell that? Try it again…smells like a 6 month old’s diaper doesn’t it? Why is Arizona being favored by 7.5? Almost no other spread is this high. It’s like they are beggin you to take SF…so don’t. Remember, the lines are simply a way to get a fairly decent amount of action/juice on both sides of the ball sort of speak. Vegas wants the same amount of bets for both sides, that’s how they make money. Arizona is gonna crush SanFran on Sunday.
Arizona 41…San Fran 17
Indy (-3.5) at NYGiants (48.5): Fun game to watch. Pass on the action for me.
Indy 28…NY Giants 21
Minnesota at Washington (-4.5) (36.5): Interest in watching but not playing.
Washington 17…Minnesota 14
San Diego (-3) at Oakland (44): The Chargers are the better team but they have had a very nice sideshow this week. I was on board with them for the 1st few weeks of the season and felt they would be a strong play till the line caught up to them a bit…now I am not so sure. I actually think they could drop the opener now.
Oakland 27…San Diego 24
My 3 ***** locks of the week will be ...insert the word tool here
Tampa Bay -3
Carolina -5
Philly -4
Other plays I like include
Dallas +2.5
Arizona -7.5
Cinci/KC 46…over
Have a great weekend of football.
Let’s start with some ground rules. The Oddsmaker will post the spreads according to what the majority line is at the Vegas Casinos at the time these are released. They are taken from a website that I am not going to plug in this thread. All Oddsmaker decisions are FINAL
You will pick 3 NFL games every week in which to play. They can either be the spreads themselves or I will include the over/under as I know many of you simply like to play those angles. All picks must be in no later than 5PM PST, 8PM EST Fridays…anything that is submitted afterwards will not count towards your record.
Want to know what we are playing for this year? First off we are playing for the official Ministry of Pain money holder(paper clip) and the official Footballguystalk Board Lighter(book of matches). I actually hope we can give away an FBG membership for someone next season…I had offers for that last year from different advertising/promotional folks and turned them down…but even if that does not occur I’ll kick in for it and make it happen.
So here’s how it is going to work. This exercise of sorts will run till week 11. Your best 8 weeks will count towards your score. Miss a week no problem, have a bad week no problem. At the end of those 8 weeks, those people that have a winning record will move on for the final 6 weeks of the season. There will be no “oops” weeks in those final 6 and we should have a clear winner at that point.
Why do this? Simple. NFL games are very hard to predict…I have said over the past several years that most people have no idea who is going to win on Sunday. The league has become very evenly matched and as you will see form the spreads this week there is hardly a blowout called for on the board(but there will be). As we go along and I highlight certain games you’ll understand the thread a little more.
Ready to jump to the games? Me too.
Not a valid pick this week
Miami at Pittsburgh (NL): There wasn’t a line on this game in most of the casinos I looked at, I think it’s best to leave it out this week. I think with Ben out Miami will win this game, they were 4 point underdogs before Big Ben went down.
Miami 17…Pittsburgh 14
Denver (-4) at St Louis (47.5): OK, Denver was supposed to punk Miami on the road in the opener last season…didn’t happen. Denver is about 5-7 wins better than St Louis. They should be able to score enough to win this game easy however Denver does not have the greatest indoor track record lately. There are better plays on the board IMO.
Denver 27…St Louis 20
NYJets at Tennessee (-3) (37): I wouldn’t touch the game with a 10 foot pole. Anyone betting on this game has a serious gambling problem or is a fan of one of the 2 teams. I can tell you the Jets have not opened on the road too well the past couple of years. TN has no offensive identity yet…stay away.
NYJets 16…Tennessee 10
Buffalo at New England (-9) (41): I don’t think Buffalo will get punked as bad this spread shows. NE has looked like a SB team in the preseason…no live bullets are flying. 9 is just too rich for me right now…always remember that a majority of NFL games are decided by 6 points or less and usually just a handful of plays make the difference.
New England 24…Buffalo 17
Baltimore at Tampa Bay (-3) (35): Being a Bucsfan it’s hard to be objective here but I like the game and I like the Bucs at home. Baltimore suffered thru a ton of injuries last season and Mcnair has done alright in his limited encounters in Tampa…however I still like the Bucs to rally around their defense and put enough up on offense to win this game somewhat easily.
Tampa Bay 21…Baltimore 13
Cincinnati at Kansas City (-3) (46): DO I need to tell you about KC and home openers, yada yada yada. This is going to be one of the early game I really want to sit down and watch. I think the Bengals will be surprised by how much teams will want to “get up” to play them. I think the game will be close with a lot of offense. I will not be betting this though.
Kansas City 31 Cincinnati 30…maybe the over in this one…maybe.
Seattle (-6)at Detroit (46): I don’t like this line, I think the game will actually be a little closer than some might think…Seattle has the SB hangover as they say. Look for Seattle to put Detroit away late in this contest.
Seattle 23…Detroit 20
Atlanta at Carolina (-5) (41.5): I like this game despit that rich 5 points I have to lay. Carolina is at home, they have a great defense and plenty of offense to take care of Atlanta. The Falcons have been moving pieces in and out of their offense as late as last week. Duckett was sent packing, Lelie was brought in last week, Crumpler was nursing an injury most of preseason…I think the Falcons will play hard in the 1st half but figure out in the 2nd half just how far away they are from the Panthers right now.
Carolina 34…Atlanta 16
Philly (-4) at Houston (39): I hate laying points on the road but I like Philly this weekend to get started on the right foot. Philly has really started to come around thru the preseason and they look real sharp. Try and remember this team prior to TO…they were NFC contenders 3 straight years. McNabb looks completely healthy and ready to roll. Houston is still a bad team and I’ll take a good team to cover over a bad team to play within almost all the time.
Philly 24…Houston 13
New Orleans at Cleveland (-3) (37.5): I am simply not betting on the Saints till they have their home back. Not gonna do it. I watched “When the Levess Broke” on HBO…you can catch it On Demand right now…Reggie Bush has a great Coastas interview this week as well. I just hope the people of NO can someday return to what was theirs…seems so unfair. Good luck NO, sorry Brownies but I pull for the Saints right now.
New Orleans 3…Cleveland 2 Reggie Bush will pitch his 1st save of the season.
Dallas at Jacksonville (-2.5) (36.5): I like Dallas to win the game outright. Jax is a good team but has inexperienced WR corp that will not help out Lefty against a very tough Dallas defense. Low scoring affair, TO makes 1 big play in the game that turns it around.
Dallas 20…Jacksonville 16
Chicago (-3.5) at Green Bay (35): No respect for GB. I like the pack as a home opener dog. The bears have a good defense but that offense has a lot of work to do. Grossman is just gross.
Green Bay 27…Chicago 17
San Fran at Arizona (-7.5) (43): Put your nose up in the air…(sniff sniff)…you smell that? Try it again…smells like a 6 month old’s diaper doesn’t it? Why is Arizona being favored by 7.5? Almost no other spread is this high. It’s like they are beggin you to take SF…so don’t. Remember, the lines are simply a way to get a fairly decent amount of action/juice on both sides of the ball sort of speak. Vegas wants the same amount of bets for both sides, that’s how they make money. Arizona is gonna crush SanFran on Sunday.
Arizona 41…San Fran 17
Indy (-3.5) at NYGiants (48.5): Fun game to watch. Pass on the action for me.
Indy 28…NY Giants 21
Minnesota at Washington (-4.5) (36.5): Interest in watching but not playing.
Washington 17…Minnesota 14
San Diego (-3) at Oakland (44): The Chargers are the better team but they have had a very nice sideshow this week. I was on board with them for the 1st few weeks of the season and felt they would be a strong play till the line caught up to them a bit…now I am not so sure. I actually think they could drop the opener now.
Oakland 27…San Diego 24
My 3 ***** locks of the week will be
...insert the word tool hereTampa Bay -3
Carolina -5
Philly -4
Other plays I like include
Dallas +2.5
Arizona -7.5
Cinci/KC 46…over
Have a great weekend of football.
