LaDainian Tomlinson: 2008 (1 Viewer)

Tomlinson now has 2806 touches for his career. This is 416 more touches than Shaun Alexander has, and 687 more than Priest Holmes ever had.

Yes, LT again was the #1 FF running back, but it wasn't by a large margin, and he will be 29 in June.

In dynasty, I think it's absolutely the time to start trading him. You can probably get full value for him, with most likely (at best) one more great year left in his career. I'm not so sure he has even that left. Yes, his running style sometimes allows him to avoid the big hits, but when you carry the ball that much, and you're approaching 30, it does start to scare me a bit.

If you don't think this is the time to trade him, why not, and at what point do you start shopping him? Also, what constitutes "full value" for you at this point?

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

Yeah, I've been wondering about LT myself lately.

But I also think he could perform at a top 5 level for the next 2 years, easily, and maybe top 10-15 for longer. Two more years of solid production, maybe more, is a long time. It would have to be a very nice trade.

Basically, if I had a rotten team, with LT, then I'd trade him. If I thought my team had a chance to be competitive the next few seasons, I'd keep him.

zamboni said:

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

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Emmitt Smith, age 28-32 (average season):1205.4 rushing yards, 8 rushing TD, 0.8 receiving TD.In there, he had two good seasons, one very average one and two horrid ones, fantasy-wise. Overall, he was good, but nothing entirely special. Certainly nothing like 1992-1995, which are the type of seasons we're used to out of LT.Also, when he hit age 28 (when he dropped off), Emmitt had 2682 touches. Again, 126 less than LT.

I have the feeling he'll be his usual reliable self for at least another couple seasons.

massraider said:

Yeah, I've been wondering about LT myself lately.



But I also think he could perform at a top 5 level for the next 2 years, easily, and maybe top 10-15 for longer. Two more years of solid production, maybe more, is a long time. It would have to be a very nice trade.

Basically, if I had a rotten team, with LT, then I'd trade him. If I thought my team had a chance to be competitive the next few seasons, I'd keep him.

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What's this based off of? What you've seen on TV?I don't mean to be rude, but I'm really interested in a statistical/historical argument here. Yes, LT is a once in a long-time type of back, but we've had these before (Emmitt, Shaun Alexander, Priest, etc.). They all suffered the same fate. I'm trying to figure out what is truly different about Tomlinson.

If you could get very good value for him right now (value enough to trade the top running back in FF), why wouldn't you do it? I am really looking for that argument.

zamboni said:

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

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I agree with this. I think LT will improve on his 2007 performance in 2008. The 1st quarter or so was an adjustment period to the new coaching staff but pizza face is a RB jackpot. I think LT's passion and professionalism will allow him to extend his career at a high level longer than most RBs. His running style and work ethic help also. I see the Chargers Oline improving not declining at this point as well. Rivers and more experience with the WRs should help keep defenses honest as well. LT is so good as a reciever that even when he starts to lose some of his ability as a runner he will continue to be productive.That being said I do think this is the time to begin looking at moving him if you can get reasonable return in trade. It will only get harder to get reasonable value in return for him after this coming season if you do hold on to him. I think he will perform well for another 3 years yet so nothing wrong with keeping him and starting him if you cannot get enough in trade for him. Just know that trading him in 2009 will be harder than now even if LT does improve on his 2007 performance (which I think he will).What to get in return for him?I would take AD for him straight up although I wouldn't frame the offer that way.. using some of this speculation about AD's last 4 weeks might help in that pursuit. Steven Jackson is another possible player to consider although I'm not as high on him as AD. Other than those 2 I think your looking at 2 for one type deals or other packages depending on the level of players involved.I wont sell LT short. I have looked at the possibility of trading him away the past 2 seasons and never found a deal I could live with. Might happen again this offseason, but I can live with that.

Biabreakable said:

zamboni said:

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

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I see the Chargers Oline improving not declining at this point as well.

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This is a good point. The OL, which was so dominant last year, definitely seemed weaker this year. I expect it to improve for next year, along with the offense overall.The other thing to keep in mind, which was alluded to, is LT's work ethic and hunger to be the best. I'm sure he is jonesing to break Emmitt's rushing yardage record.

Biabreakable said:

zamboni said:

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

Click to expand...

I agree with this. I think LT will improve on his 2007 performance in 2008. The 1st quarter or so was an adjustment period to the new coaching staff but pizza face is a RB jackpot. I think LT's passion and professionalism will allow him to extend his career at a high level longer than most RBs. His running style and work ethic help also. I see the Chargers Oline improving not declining at this point as well. Rivers and more experience with the WRs should help keep defenses honest as well. LT is so good as a reciever that even when he starts to lose some of his ability as a runner he will continue to be productive.That being said I do think this is the time to begin looking at moving him if you can get reasonable return in trade. It will only get harder to get reasonable value in return for him after this coming season if you do hold on to him. I think he will perform well for another 3 years yet so nothing wrong with keeping him and starting him if you cannot get enough in trade for him. Just know that trading him in 2009 will be harder than now even if LT does improve on his 2007 performance (which I think he will).What to get in return for him?I would take AD for him straight up although I wouldn't frame the offer that way.. using some of this speculation about AD's last 4 weeks might help in that pursuit. Steven Jackson is another possible player to consider although I'm not as high on him as AD. Other than those 2 I think your looking at 2 for one type deals or other packages depending on the level of players involved.I wont sell LT short. I have looked at the possibility of trading him away the past 2 seasons and never found a deal I could live with. Might happen again this offseason, but I can live with that.

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Bia,Thanks for the insightful post. I do have a few questions.1. You mention that he'll improve on his 2007 performance. I tend to agree that the coaching change hurt him early this year, but with that many touches, and that much of a historical wall to deal with, what else makes you think he'll improve?2. Yes, LT has an amazing amount of professionalism/work ethic. A lot of the other backs who hit the wall did as well, though, and without as many touches. You mention that he'll extend his career longer than most RBs...the problem is, I really don't see an exception in elite RBs to this point. Which ones have been able to keep up such an amazing pace past the age of 29? Emmitt was there forever, and he was very good for a long time--and he still hit the same wall.3. If you're offered Peterson for him, and you don't take it, I think we need an entirely new discussion. Jackson is an interesting case. I think right now, if someone offered me Jackson and a high pick for Tomlinson, I'd be hard-pressed not to take it. Jackson straight up? That would be an interesting discussion for me. Jackson's on a bad team, horrible injured OL, and a fragile QB, and still puts up very nice numbers. Through last week, even with all his problems/injuries, Jackson was RB7 in PPG, 5 behind LT. I just see Jackson's career as having nowhere to go but up, and Tomlinson's with nowhere to go but down (I don't think anyone really thinks he'll ever repeat 2006 again, and it would be hard to even come that close to 2005).4. Brian Westbrook will turn 29 next year as well. What do you see from him in terms of a dropoff? Over the last 3-4 seasons, he's the only one you can really compare LT to, and they're coming upon the same point in their careers.

I think LT has 2 great years left in him. I see no reason why a solid dynasty team should trade LT if they have solid players around him. If you are a LT owner and in the rebuild mode, then I can see moving him for a young RB and 1st round pick. I do not think you will be able to get ADP for him. Most dynasty players LOVE young talented players.

zamboni said:

The other thing to keep in mind, which was alluded to, is LT's work ethic and hunger to be the best. I'm sure he is jonesing to break Emmitt's rushing yardage record.

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Meh, I'm not so sure this plays heavily into my thinking. Sports cliches have been around for 40-50 years, and they've said the same thing about thousands of different athletes. Not one has been able to carry LT's production into their 30s.Off the top of my head, I can think of one exception, and he had far fewer touches going into his late 20's/early 30's than LT. Maybe I'm missing someone.And even this guy had a dropoff after he hit 30, and he never produced at LT/SA/PH/Emmitt's numbers.

fsufan said:

I think LT has 2 great years left in him.

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Why? I want someone to prove me wrong, so I'm challenging every baseless claim in here. I hope nobody is taking offense to this...there's none intended at all.

I have a strange feeling that I've seen this thread for about the last 2-3 seasons. Too many touch's, due to breakdown, injury waiting to happen,etc and yet he keeps on truckin. At some point someone will be right but my eyes say he looks as good as ever. I'll ride him until it's too late but I'm not giving up the best fantasy player in the history of the sport until I know he's done.

Banger said:

I have a strange feeling that I've seen this thread for about the last 2-3 seasons. Too many touch's, due to breakdown, injury waiting to happen,etc and yet he keeps on truckin.

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I'm on record having defended him in every thread like this until now. 29 is the magic age to me, especially with this many touches, because it's happened to so many uber-elite RBs before him.

Keys Myaths said:

fsufan said:

I think LT has 2 great years left in him.

Click to expand...

Why? I want someone to prove me wrong, so I'm challenging every baseless claim in here. I hope nobody is taking offense to this...there's none intended at all.

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why? why not? He still looks great, he's on a good team, he doesn't have injury problems, he finished as the #1 back again, what's not to like?Just because a sample set of backs do X at a certain point is totally meaningless IMO. You can throw out all the stats and just watch him. You can only compare him to a few guys in the history of the sport.

Banger said:

Keys Myaths said:

fsufan said:

I think LT has 2 great years left in him.

Click to expand...

Why? I want someone to prove me wrong, so I'm challenging every baseless claim in here. I hope nobody is taking offense to this...there's none intended at all.

Click to expand...

why? why not? He still looks great, he's on a good team, he doesn't have injury problems, he finished as the #1 back again, what's not to like?

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Because of the historical dropoff I've compiled in great detail throughout this thread for "special" running backs just like Tomlinson.

Keys Myaths said:

Biabreakable said:

zamboni said:

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

Click to expand...

I agree with this. I think LT will improve on his 2007 performance in 2008. The 1st quarter or so was an adjustment period to the new coaching staff but pizza face is a RB jackpot. I think LT's passion and professionalism will allow him to extend his career at a high level longer than most RBs. His running style and work ethic help also. I see the Chargers Oline improving not declining at this point as well. Rivers and more experience with the WRs should help keep defenses honest as well. LT is so good as a reciever that even when he starts to lose some of his ability as a runner he will continue to be productive.That being said I do think this is the time to begin looking at moving him if you can get reasonable return in trade. It will only get harder to get reasonable value in return for him after this coming season if you do hold on to him. I think he will perform well for another 3 years yet so nothing wrong with keeping him and starting him if you cannot get enough in trade for him. Just know that trading him in 2009 will be harder than now even if LT does improve on his 2007 performance (which I think he will).What to get in return for him?I would take AD for him straight up although I wouldn't frame the offer that way.. using some of this speculation about AD's last 4 weeks might help in that pursuit. Steven Jackson is another possible player to consider although I'm not as high on him as AD. Other than those 2 I think your looking at 2 for one type deals or other packages depending on the level of players involved.I wont sell LT short. I have looked at the possibility of trading him away the past 2 seasons and never found a deal I could live with. Might happen again this offseason, but I can live with that.

Click to expand...

Bia,Thanks for the insightful post. I do have a few questions.1. You mention that he'll improve on his 2007 performance. I tend to agree that the coaching change hurt him early this year, but with that many touches, and that much of a historical wall to deal with, what else makes you think he'll improve?2. Yes, LT has an amazing amount of professionalism/work ethic. A lot of the other backs who hit the wall did as well, though, and without as many touches. You mention that he'll extend his career longer than most RBs...the problem is, I really don't see an exception in elite RBs to this point. Which ones have been able to keep up such an amazing pace past the age of 29? Emmitt was there forever, and he was very good for a long time--and he still hit the same wall.3. If you're offered Peterson for him, and you don't take it, I think we need an entirely new discussion. Jackson is an interesting case. I think right now, if someone offered me Jackson and a high pick for Tomlinson, I'd be hard-pressed not to take it. Jackson straight up? That would be an interesting discussion for me. Jackson's on a bad team, horrible injured OL, and a fragile QB, and still puts up very nice numbers. Through last week, even with all his problems/injuries, Jackson was RB7 in PPG, 5 behind LT. I just see Jackson's career as having nowhere to go but up, and Tomlinson's with nowhere to go but down (I don't think anyone really thinks he'll ever repeat 2006 again, and it would be hard to even come that close to 2005).4. Brian Westbrook will turn 29 next year as well. What do you see from him in terms of a dropoff? Over the last 3-4 seasons, he's the only one you can really compare LT to, and they're coming upon the same point in their careers.

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Well I want to go grab dinner so I may need to come back to this.In answer to point one. I think the Oline will improve both in talent/conditioning as well as schematicly from how they performed in 2007 to 2008. With Chambers, Jackson and Davis as well as another year of experience for Rivers I see the offense as a whole improving in 2008 and that will help LT to maintain his elite level of performance and I think improve on it some in 2008. LT's total touches in 2007 were 375. This is slightly below his average number of touches over his career so I see that number going up in 2008. The catches have steadily increased for 3 years in a row now. So I see that as a continuing trend as well.I will adress the rest when I get back.

Banger said:

You can only compare him to a few guys in the history of the sport.

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I realize this, and it's why I chose the running backs I did to compare him to.Who else would you suggest?

Biabreakable said:

Keys Myaths said:

Biabreakable said:

zamboni said:

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

Click to expand...

I agree with this. I think LT will improve on his 2007 performance in 2008. The 1st quarter or so was an adjustment period to the new coaching staff but pizza face is a RB jackpot. I think LT's passion and professionalism will allow him to extend his career at a high level longer than most RBs. His running style and work ethic help also. I see the Chargers Oline improving not declining at this point as well. Rivers and more experience with the WRs should help keep defenses honest as well. LT is so good as a reciever that even when he starts to lose some of his ability as a runner he will continue to be productive.That being said I do think this is the time to begin looking at moving him if you can get reasonable return in trade. It will only get harder to get reasonable value in return for him after this coming season if you do hold on to him. I think he will perform well for another 3 years yet so nothing wrong with keeping him and starting him if you cannot get enough in trade for him. Just know that trading him in 2009 will be harder than now even if LT does improve on his 2007 performance (which I think he will).What to get in return for him?I would take AD for him straight up although I wouldn't frame the offer that way.. using some of this speculation about AD's last 4 weeks might help in that pursuit. Steven Jackson is another possible player to consider although I'm not as high on him as AD. Other than those 2 I think your looking at 2 for one type deals or other packages depending on the level of players involved.I wont sell LT short. I have looked at the possibility of trading him away the past 2 seasons and never found a deal I could live with. Might happen again this offseason, but I can live with that.

Click to expand...

Bia,Thanks for the insightful post. I do have a few questions.1. You mention that he'll improve on his 2007 performance. I tend to agree that the coaching change hurt him early this year, but with that many touches, and that much of a historical wall to deal with, what else makes you think he'll improve?2. Yes, LT has an amazing amount of professionalism/work ethic. A lot of the other backs who hit the wall did as well, though, and without as many touches. You mention that he'll extend his career longer than most RBs...the problem is, I really don't see an exception in elite RBs to this point. Which ones have been able to keep up such an amazing pace past the age of 29? Emmitt was there forever, and he was very good for a long time--and he still hit the same wall.3. If you're offered Peterson for him, and you don't take it, I think we need an entirely new discussion. Jackson is an interesting case. I think right now, if someone offered me Jackson and a high pick for Tomlinson, I'd be hard-pressed not to take it. Jackson straight up? That would be an interesting discussion for me. Jackson's on a bad team, horrible injured OL, and a fragile QB, and still puts up very nice numbers. Through last week, even with all his problems/injuries, Jackson was RB7 in PPG, 5 behind LT. I just see Jackson's career as having nowhere to go but up, and Tomlinson's with nowhere to go but down (I don't think anyone really thinks he'll ever repeat 2006 again, and it would be hard to even come that close to 2005).4. Brian Westbrook will turn 29 next year as well. What do you see from him in terms of a dropoff? Over the last 3-4 seasons, he's the only one you can really compare LT to, and they're coming upon the same point in their careers.

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Well I want to go grab dinner so I may need to come back to this.In answer to point one. I think the Oline will improve both in talent/conditioning as well as schematicly from how they performed in 2007 to 2008. With Chambers, Jackson and Davis as well as another year of experience for Rivers I see the offense as a whole improving in 2008 and that will help LT to maintain his elite level of performance and I think improve on it some in 2008. LT's total touches in 2007 were 375. This is slightly below his average number of touches over his career so I see that number going up in 2008. The catches have steadily increased for 3 years in a row now. So I see that as a continuing trend as well.I will adress the rest when I get back.

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Excellent, and thanks.

Tomlinson is the only sure thing at RB. He has never missed a game due to injury and he consistently puts up 100 yards and a TD. The only guys in his league ALL MISSED AT LEAST 1 GAME THIS YEAR ALONE (Westbrook, A.Peterson, Addai, S.Jackson, L.Johnson). Talk to the guy who basically traded him straight up last year for the next "sure thing" Reggie Bush. Since then Tomlinson has put up these numbers....

2300 yards and 31 TDs

1950 yards and 18 TDs.

Not only does he get you to the playoffs, but he carries you through them as well. The last 2 years in weeks 14-16 Tomlinson has averaged 143 yards and almost 2 TDs per game. That wins championships. Let me know how any of those other stud RBs did in the playoffs the last 2 years.

Synthesizer said:

Tomlinson is the only sure thing at RB. He has never missed a game due to injury and he consistently puts up 100 yards and a TD. The only guys in his league ALL MISSED AT LEAST 1 GAME THIS YEAR ALONE (Westbrook, A.Peterson, Addai, S.Jackson, L.Johnson). Talk to the guy who basically traded him straight up last year for the next "sure thing" Reggie Bush. Since then Tomlinson has put up these numbers....

2300 yards and 31 TDs

1950 yards and 18 TDs.

Not only does he get you to the playoffs, but he carries you through them as well. The last 2 years in weeks 14-16 Tomlinson has averaged 143 yards and almost 2 TDs per game. That wins championships. Let me know how any of those other stud RBs did in the playoffs the last 2 years.

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That's fantastic. He's been an incredible, incredible talent, and probably the best fantasy football player ever.Nowhere in this thread am I denying that.

Keys Myaths said:

Banger said:

You can only compare him to a few guys in the history of the sport.

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I realize this, and it's why I chose the running backs I did to compare him to.Who else would you suggest?

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I dont' think there is anyone. He trains as hard as anyone and he's taken very good care of himself since he entered the league. Injuries would be the main issue that I would be fearful of and he's been able to avoid them for the most part. Yes he's getting older and he won't play forever but he still looks great. He's a freak.

Banger said:

Keys Myaths said:

Banger said:

You can only compare him to a few guys in the history of the sport.

Click to expand...

I realize this, and it's why I chose the running backs I did to compare him to.Who else would you suggest?

Click to expand...

I dont' think there is anyone. He trains as hard as anyone and he's taken very good care of himself since he entered the league. Injuries would be the main issue that I would be fearful of and he's been able to avoid them for the most part. Yes he's getting older and he won't play forever but he still looks great. He's a freak.

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I guess you and I will have to disagree on this. I think Emmitt is a great comparison, for one.

To get the arguments consolidated, the general feeling I'm getting in here is that LT (and his situation) is so unique, and so far and away one of (if not the) best RB ever, that he transcends what's happened to every great running back before him.

I'm not discounting this argument at all (yet ), but I want to make sure this is where you guys are coming from, and I'm not misunderstanding.

Keys Myaths said:

Synthesizer said:

Tomlinson is the only sure thing at RB. He has never missed a game due to injury and he consistently puts up 100 yards and a TD. The only guys in his league ALL MISSED AT LEAST 1 GAME THIS YEAR ALONE (Westbrook, A.Peterson, Addai, S.Jackson, L.Johnson). Talk to the guy who basically traded him straight up last year for the next "sure thing" Reggie Bush. Since then Tomlinson has put up these numbers....

2300 yards and 31 TDs

1950 yards and 18 TDs.

Not only does he get you to the playoffs, but he carries you through them as well. The last 2 years in weeks 14-16 Tomlinson has averaged 143 yards and almost 2 TDs per game. That wins championships. Let me know how any of those other stud RBs did in the playoffs the last 2 years.

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That's fantastic. He's been an incredible, incredible talent, and probably the best fantasy football player ever.Nowhere in this thread am I denying that.

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I'm the kind of guy who bets with a streak rather than against it. There has been at least 1 thread predicting Tomlinsons's downfall for each of the past 5 seasons or so.

Keys Myaths said:

Banger said:

Keys Myaths said:

Banger said:

You can only compare him to a few guys in the history of the sport.

Click to expand...

I realize this, and it's why I chose the running backs I did to compare him to.Who else would you suggest?

Click to expand...

I dont' think there is anyone. He trains as hard as anyone and he's taken very good care of himself since he entered the league. Injuries would be the main issue that I would be fearful of and he's been able to avoid them for the most part. Yes he's getting older and he won't play forever but he still looks great. He's a freak.

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I guess you and I will have to disagree on this. I think Emmitt is a great comparison, for one.

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I think Emmit is probably the best comparison but I think LT is more talented.

Keys Myaths said:

To get the arguments consolidated, the general feeling I'm getting in here is that LT (and his situation) is so unique, and so far and away one of (if not the) best RB ever, that he transcends what's happened to every great running back before him.I'm not discounting this argument at all (yet ), but I want to make sure this is where you guys are coming from, and I'm not misunderstanding.

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I don't think there's any other way to look at it. Otherwise since he's touched the ball so many times he should be injured or already falling apart as the various studies indicate he should.

The biggest problem with trading LT in a dynasty league is "who's going to buy him?"

I shopped him last offseason to the SJax owner, he wasn't interested. The only kind of offers I got were the kind I'd never consider (Marion Barber + Julius Jones + a 1st rounder.) The closest thing to a serious offer I even considered was a combo trade were I threw in LT + some for Willie Parker + Benson early in the season.

I'd consider moving him for Peterson, but if you were a Peterson owner in dynasty, why would you sell?

Keys Myaths said:

fsufan said:

I think LT has 2 great years left in him.

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Why? I want someone to prove me wrong, so I'm challenging every baseless claim in here. I hope nobody is taking offense to this...there's none intended at all.

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1. no history of injury

2. good team/players around him

3. Past RBs like Smith, Martin and Barber has shown that RBs can still produce at a high level at ages 29, 30 and 31.

Smiths #s at age 29,30 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitEm00.htm

1998*

29 DAL

RB 16

16 319 1332 13 32 4.2 83.3 19.9 27 175 6.5 2 24 1.7 10.9 1507 15 3

1999*

30 DAL

RB 15

15 329 1397 11 63 4.2 93.1 21.9 27 119 4.4 2 14 1.8 7.9 1516 13 5

2000

31 DAL

RB 16

16 294 1203 9 52 4.1 75.2 18.4 11 79 7.2 0 19 0.7 4.9 1282 9

Martin #s at 29,30 and 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MartCu00.htm

2002

29 NYJ

RB 16

16 261 1094 7 35 4.2 68.4 16.3 49 362 7.4 0 28 3.1 22.6 1456 7 0

2003

30 NYJ

RB 16

16 323 1308 2 56 4.0 81.8 20.2 42 262 6.2 0 29 2.6 16.4 1570 2 2

2004*+

31 NYJ

RB 16

16 371 1697 12 25 4.6 106.1 23.2 41 245

Barber #s at 29. 30 and 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm

2004*+

29 NYG

RB 16

14 322 1518 13 72 4.7 94.9 20.1 52 578 11.1 2 62 3.3 36.1 2096 15 5

2005*+

30 NYG

RB 16

16 357 1860 9 95 5.2 116.3 22.3 54 530 9.8 2 48 3.4 33.1 2390 11 1

2006*

31 NYG

RB 16

16 327 1662 5 55 5.1 103.9 20.4 58 465 8.0 0 28 3.6 29.1 2127 5 3

Buckna said:

The biggest problem with trading LT in a dynasty league is "who's going to buy him?"

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This is a fair argument. But, given the reactions of a lot of people in this thread, maybe we should ask them.Banger/Synthesizer, etc. What would you give up for LT in a dynasty league?

fsufan said:

Keys Myaths said:

fsufan said:

I think LT has 2 great years left in him.

Click to expand...

Why? I want someone to prove me wrong, so I'm challenging every baseless claim in here. I hope nobody is taking offense to this...there's none intended at all.

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1. no history of injury

2. good team/players around him

3. Past RBs like Smith, Martin and Barber has shown that RBs can still produce at a high level at ages 29, 30 and 31.

Smiths #s at age 29,30 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitEm00.htm

1998*

29 DAL

RB 16

16 319 1332 13 32 4.2 83.3 19.9 27 175 6.5 2 24 1.7 10.9 1507 15 3

1999*

30 DAL

RB 15

15 329 1397 11 63 4.2 93.1 21.9 27 119 4.4 2 14 1.8 7.9 1516 13 5

2000

31 DAL

RB 16

16 294 1203 9 52 4.1 75.2 18.4 11 79 7.2 0 19 0.7 4.9 1282 9

Martin #s at 29,30 and 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MartCu00.htm

2002

29 NYJ

RB 16

16 261 1094 7 35 4.2 68.4 16.3 49 362 7.4 0 28 3.1 22.6 1456 7 0

2003

30 NYJ

RB 16

16 323 1308 2 56 4.0 81.8 20.2 42 262 6.2 0 29 2.6 16.4 1570 2 2

2004*+

31 NYJ

RB 16

16 371 1697 12 25 4.6 106.1 23.2 41 245

Barber #s at 29. 30 and 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm

2004*+

29 NYG

RB 16

14 322 1518 13 72 4.7 94.9 20.1 52 578 11.1 2 62 3.3 36.1 2096 15 5

2005*+

30 NYG

RB 16

16 357 1860 9 95 5.2 116.3 22.3 54 530 9.8 2 48 3.4 33.1 2390 11 1

2006*

31 NYG

RB 16

16 327 1662 5 55 5.1 103.9 20.4 58 465 8.0 0 28 3.6 29.1 2127 5 3

Click to expand...

Tiki was my exception that I listed above. Even he didn't have elite numbers.Emmitt, I address multiple times in this thread. He was never elite after 28. Good seasons? Sure. But elite went out the window at 27.

I'm not denying the fact that LT can still be top 10 or maybe even at the bottom of the top 5 for the next 2-3 seasons. My argument is those expecting him to stay RB1 are fooling themselves historically.

Keys Myaths said:

Buckna said:

The biggest problem with trading LT in a dynasty league is "who's going to buy him?"

Click to expand...

This is a fair argument. But, given the reactions of a lot of people in this thread, maybe we should ask them.Banger/Synthesizer, etc. What would you give up for LT in a dynasty league?

Click to expand...

Tough question. So much depends on your and the opponents rosters. I'd certainly give up a Gore +, SJax maybe, not Peterson. Actually probably anyone outside of Peterson.

Keys Myaths said:

To get the arguments consolidated, the general feeling I'm getting in here is that LT (and his situation) is so unique, and so far and away one of (if not the) best RB ever, that he transcends what's happened to every great running back before him.I'm not discounting this argument at all (yet ), but I want to make sure this is where you guys are coming from, and I'm not misunderstanding.

Click to expand...

Emmit Smith played well up until 2001 when he had the knee injury. His prior three seasons (29-31) were:1507 yds 15 TDs1516 yds 13 TDs1282 yds 9 TDsIncluding two Pro Bowls. In fact, his '96 and '97 seasons (27-28) weren't that much different:1453 yds 15 TDs1308 yds 4 TDsFrom '91 to '95 he was amazing, but he wasn't exactly a slouch after that. If the above stats don't put him in the "great" category to you then he actually hit his wall at 27. For me, he hit it at 32 when he started to miss games due to injury. Your 29 number seems pretty obscure to me. It doesn't really correlate to anything.

Keys Myaths said:

fsufan said:

Keys Myaths said:

fsufan said:

I think LT has 2 great years left in him.

Click to expand...

Why? I want someone to prove me wrong, so I'm challenging every baseless claim in here. I hope nobody is taking offense to this...there's none intended at all.

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1. no history of injury

2. good team/players around him

3. Past RBs like Smith, Martin and Barber has shown that RBs can still produce at a high level at ages 29, 30 and 31.

Smiths #s at age 29,30 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitEm00.htm

1998*

29 DAL

RB 16

16 319 1332 13 32 4.2 83.3 19.9 27 175 6.5 2 24 1.7 10.9 1507 15 3

1999*

30 DAL

RB 15

15 329 1397 11 63 4.2 93.1 21.9 27 119 4.4 2 14 1.8 7.9 1516 13 5

2000

31 DAL

RB 16

16 294 1203 9 52 4.1 75.2 18.4 11 79 7.2 0 19 0.7 4.9 1282 9

Martin #s at 29,30 and 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MartCu00.htm

2002

29 NYJ

RB 16

16 261 1094 7 35 4.2 68.4 16.3 49 362 7.4 0 28 3.1 22.6 1456 7 0

2003

30 NYJ

RB 16

16 323 1308 2 56 4.0 81.8 20.2 42 262 6.2 0 29 2.6 16.4 1570 2 2

2004*+

31 NYJ

RB 16

16 371 1697 12 25 4.6 106.1 23.2 41 245

Barber #s at 29. 30 and 31

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm

2004*+

29 NYG

RB 16

14 322 1518 13 72 4.7 94.9 20.1 52 578 11.1 2 62 3.3 36.1 2096 15 5

2005*+

30 NYG

RB 16

16 357 1860 9 95 5.2 116.3 22.3 54 530 9.8 2 48 3.4 33.1 2390 11 1

2006*

31 NYG

RB 16

16 327 1662 5 55 5.1 103.9 20.4 58 465 8.0 0 28 3.6 29.1 2127 5 3

Click to expand...

Tiki was my exception that I listed above. Even he didn't have elite numbers.Emmitt, I address multiple times in this thread. He was never elite after 28. Good seasons? Sure. But elite went out the window at 27.

I'm not denying the fact that LT can still be top 10 or maybe even at the bottom of the top 5 for the next 2-3 seasons. My argument is those expecting him to stay RB1 are fooling themselves historically.

Click to expand...

historically speaking, how many people have been the quickest to 100 tds, hold the single season td record, run for 1200+ yards for their first 7 seasons, etc, etc. He is rewriting the books on the position.

jonessed said:

Keys Myaths said:

To get the arguments consolidated, the general feeling I'm getting in here is that LT (and his situation) is so unique, and so far and away one of (if not the) best RB ever, that he transcends what's happened to every great running back before him.I'm not discounting this argument at all (yet ), but I want to make sure this is where you guys are coming from, and I'm not misunderstanding.

Click to expand...

Emmit Smith played well up until 2001 when he had the knee injury. His prior three seasons (29-31) were:1507 yds 15 TDs1516 yds 13 TDs1282 yds 9 TDsIncluding two Pro Bowls. In fact, his '96 and '97 seasons (27-28) weren't that much different:1453 yds 15 TDs1308 yds 4 TDsFrom '91 to '95 he was amazing, but he wasn't exactly a slouch after that. If the above stats don't put him in the "great" category to you then he actually hit his wall at 27. For me, he hit it at 32 when he started to miss games due to injury.

Click to expand...

Again, I'm not saying he was a slouch. He did drop off though. I'm not saying LT is going to suddenly become Cedric Benson. I am saying that his days as the undisputed #1 dynasty back need to be brought into question.

Keys Myaths said:

jonessed said:

Keys Myaths said:

To get the arguments consolidated, the general feeling I'm getting in here is that LT (and his situation) is so unique, and so far and away one of (if not the) best RB ever, that he transcends what's happened to every great running back before him.I'm not discounting this argument at all (yet ), but I want to make sure this is where you guys are coming from, and I'm not misunderstanding.

Click to expand...

Emmit Smith played well up until 2001 when he had the knee injury. His prior three seasons (29-31) were:1507 yds 15 TDs1516 yds 13 TDs1282 yds 9 TDsIncluding two Pro Bowls. In fact, his '96 and '97 seasons (27-28) weren't that much different:1453 yds 15 TDs1308 yds 4 TDsFrom '91 to '95 he was amazing, but he wasn't exactly a slouch after that. If the above stats don't put him in the "great" category to you then he actually hit his wall at 27. For me, he hit it at 32 when he started to miss games due to injury.

Click to expand...

Again, I'm not saying he was a slouch. He did drop off though. I'm not saying LT is going to suddenly become Cedric Benson. I am saying that his days as the undisputed #1 dynasty back need to be brought into question.

Click to expand...

Dallas as a team declined after that. They were SB champs in '96 and then were better than .500 only once over the next five seasons. Even then they basically relied on their D to win games. Teams can only stay elite for so long.

Keys Myaths said:

Buckna said:

The biggest problem with trading LT in a dynasty league is "who's going to buy him?"

Click to expand...

This is a fair argument. But, given the reactions of a lot of people in this thread, maybe we should ask them.Banger/Synthesizer, etc. What would you give up for LT in a dynasty league?

Click to expand...

Good question. If I was an LT owner and was shopping him, here's the minimum that I would want in return......A.Peterson and a mid-level starter at WR or TE (I seriously doubt the Peterson owner would take this trade)S.Jackson and another young RB with potential (I'd hope for someone like Lynch)Addai and another starter at RB (Portis or W.Parker)All other deals would have to be some package with multiple starters at multiple positions (Brees, McGahee, and Wayne) (Roethlisberger, Barber, and Fitzgerald).

Synthesizer said:

Keys Myaths said:

Buckna said:

The biggest problem with trading LT in a dynasty league is "who's going to buy him?"

Click to expand...

This is a fair argument. But, given the reactions of a lot of people in this thread, maybe we should ask them.Banger/Synthesizer, etc. What would you give up for LT in a dynasty league?

Click to expand...

Good question. If I was an LT owner and was shopping him, here's the minimum that I would want in return......A.Peterson and a mid-level starter at WR or TE (I seriously doubt the Peterson owner would take this trade)S.Jackson and another young RB with potential (I'd hope for someone like Lynch)Addai and another starter at RB (Portis or W.Parker)All other deals would have to be some package with multiple starters at multiple positions (Brees, McGahee, and Wayne) (Roethlisberger, Barber, and Fitzgerald).

Click to expand...

What would you trade to get LT, assuming you didn't have him? The same as above?

Keys Myaths said:

Synthesizer said:

Keys Myaths said:

Buckna said:

The biggest problem with trading LT in a dynasty league is "who's going to buy him?"

Click to expand...

This is a fair argument. But, given the reactions of a lot of people in this thread, maybe we should ask them.Banger/Synthesizer, etc. What would you give up for LT in a dynasty league?

Click to expand...

Good question. If I was an LT owner and was shopping him, here's the minimum that I would want in return......A.Peterson and a mid-level starter at WR or TE (I seriously doubt the Peterson owner would take this trade)S.Jackson and another young RB with potential (I'd hope for someone like Lynch)Addai and another starter at RB (Portis or W.Parker)All other deals would have to be some package with multiple starters at multiple positions (Brees, McGahee, and Wayne) (Roethlisberger, Barber, and Fitzgerald).

Click to expand...

What would you trade to get LT, assuming you didn't have him? The same as above?

Click to expand...

No, I would let the LT owner read a thread like this predicting his dropoff. Then I would get the LT owner to be the one giving up additional starters for A.Peterson, S.Jackson, or Addai, etc. If I could pull off one of the package deals I'd hope to only give up 2 of the 3 players I listed (Brees and McGahee) (Barber and Fitzgerald)

Synthesizer said:

Keys Myaths said:

Synthesizer said:

Keys Myaths said:

Buckna said:

The biggest problem with trading LT in a dynasty league is "who's going to buy him?"

Click to expand...

This is a fair argument. But, given the reactions of a lot of people in this thread, maybe we should ask them.Banger/Synthesizer, etc. What would you give up for LT in a dynasty league?

Click to expand...

Good question. If I was an LT owner and was shopping him, here's the minimum that I would want in return......A.Peterson and a mid-level starter at WR or TE (I seriously doubt the Peterson owner would take this trade)S.Jackson and another young RB with potential (I'd hope for someone like Lynch)Addai and another starter at RB (Portis or W.Parker)All other deals would have to be some package with multiple starters at multiple positions (Brees, McGahee, and Wayne) (Roethlisberger, Barber, and Fitzgerald).

Click to expand...

What would you trade to get LT, assuming you didn't have him? The same as above?

Click to expand...

No, I would let the LT owner read a thread like this predicting his dropoff. Then I would get the LT owner to be the one giving up additional starters for A.Peterson, S.Jackson, or Addai, etc. If I could pull off one of the package deals I'd hope to only give up 2 of the 3 players I listed (Brees and McGahee) (Barber and Fitzgerald)

Click to expand...

This is probably a different thread entirely, but why do people ask for so much more in trade for a player than they would in order to get the player? Seems the two should be pretty balanced.

Keys Myaths said:

Biabreakable said:

Keys Myaths said:

Biabreakable said:

zamboni said:

LT strikes me as one of the rare guys, like Emmitt Smith, that can stay at the top of their game for many, many years - well above the average RB. At some point, of course, he'll tail off, but it's hard to see any visible signs right now.

Click to expand...

I agree with this. I think LT will improve on his 2007 performance in 2008. The 1st quarter or so was an adjustment period to the new coaching staff but pizza face is a RB jackpot. I think LT's passion and professionalism will allow him to extend his career at a high level longer than most RBs. His running style and work ethic help also. I see the Chargers Oline improving not declining at this point as well. Rivers and more experience with the WRs should help keep defenses honest as well. LT is so good as a reciever that even when he starts to lose some of his ability as a runner he will continue to be productive.That being said I do think this is the time to begin looking at moving him if you can get reasonable return in trade. It will only get harder to get reasonable value in return for him after this coming season if you do hold on to him. I think he will perform well for another 3 years yet so nothing wrong with keeping him and starting him if you cannot get enough in trade for him. Just know that trading him in 2009 will be harder than now even if LT does improve on his 2007 performance (which I think he will).What to get in return for him?I would take AD for him straight up although I wouldn't frame the offer that way.. using some of this speculation about AD's last 4 weeks might help in that pursuit. Steven Jackson is another possible player to consider although I'm not as high on him as AD. Other than those 2 I think your looking at 2 for one type deals or other packages depending on the level of players involved.I wont sell LT short. I have looked at the possibility of trading him away the past 2 seasons and never found a deal I could live with. Might happen again this offseason, but I can live with that.

Click to expand...

Bia,Thanks for the insightful post. I do have a few questions.1. You mention that he'll improve on his 2007 performance. I tend to agree that the coaching change hurt him early this year, but with that many touches, and that much of a historical wall to deal with, what else makes you think he'll improve?2. Yes, LT has an amazing amount of professionalism/work ethic. A lot of the other backs who hit the wall did as well, though, and without as many touches. You mention that he'll extend his career longer than most RBs...the problem is, I really don't see an exception in elite RBs to this point. Which ones have been able to keep up such an amazing pace past the age of 29? Emmitt was there forever, and he was very good for a long time--and he still hit the same wall.3. If you're offered Peterson for him, and you don't take it, I think we need an entirely new discussion. Jackson is an interesting case. I think right now, if someone offered me Jackson and a high pick for Tomlinson, I'd be hard-pressed not to take it. Jackson straight up? That would be an interesting discussion for me. Jackson's on a bad team, horrible injured OL, and a fragile QB, and still puts up very nice numbers. Through last week, even with all his problems/injuries, Jackson was RB7 in PPG, 5 behind LT. I just see Jackson's career as having nowhere to go but up, and Tomlinson's with nowhere to go but down (I don't think anyone really thinks he'll ever repeat 2006 again, and it would be hard to even come that close to 2005).4. Brian Westbrook will turn 29 next year as well. What do you see from him in terms of a dropoff? Over the last 3-4 seasons, he's the only one you can really compare LT to, and they're coming upon the same point in their careers.

Click to expand...

Well I want to go grab dinner so I may need to come back to this.In answer to point one. I think the Oline will improve both in talent/conditioning as well as schematicly from how they performed in 2007 to 2008. With Chambers, Jackson and Davis as well as another year of experience for Rivers I see the offense as a whole improving in 2008 and that will help LT to maintain his elite level of performance and I think improve on it some in 2008. LT's total touches in 2007 were 375. This is slightly below his average number of touches over his career so I see that number going up in 2008. The catches have steadily increased for 3 years in a row now. So I see that as a continuing trend as well.I will adress the rest when I get back.

Click to expand...

Excellent, and thanks.

Click to expand...

Continuing now that my stomach is settling.I hope point one is clear enough? I do not have much to add on that except that 2nd year LT Marcus McNeill seemed to have regressed from his outstanding rookie season. I think he gets back on track. And the rest of the offensive line seemed to take some time to adjust to the new coaches and nuances of the system. Even though the system is supposedly essentialy the same. I think the Oline has gelled as the season went on and will build on that with some continuity going into 2008. The defense was not as effiecient with the change to both ILBs and the team struggled against the run allowing opposing offenses to run a lot more plays. Total plays on offense and average yards/play for opponent and then for SD:2007 1013 - 5.1 980 - 5.12006 985 - 4.9 1016 - 5.72005 999 - 5.0 1022 - 5.4As you can see offensive plays in 2007 were down from the level of play the last 2 years. I expect improvement on both sides of the ball that will swing this more towards where it has been in the 2 previous years in 2008.While LT led the league in most categories for RBs this year yet again, it really was just an average year for him. And actually his rushing attempts were down by about 30 from his average. Thats not really a bad thing and perhaps we will see more prudent attention being paid to his workload moving forward. Why? To extend his career and keep the Chargers most dominant weapon fresh. We all know that pizza face will let LT win games for them in a pinch. But even so LT was lobbying to get the ball more when the Chargers were struggling. He did this in a very tactful way. LT got more carries and SD won more games.Point 2 - LT does have a lot of similarities to Emmit Smith. But he is also similar to Marshall Faulk. Emmit was never the threat as a reciever like LT is. And I think this part of his game will extend his career at a elite level of performance longer than Emmit could. BTW as great as Emmit performed numbers wise I dont think Emmit ever had the physical tools and talent that LT does. LT aspires to be like Sweetness. Toughness, heart and grit. A complete player. I think he has suceeded in that. I don't see age being able to rob him of his talent yet and he seems as passionate as ever.There have been several times that you have referenced this age 30 as being a drop off for RBs. All of them. And indeed it is. However there has been a trend of exceptions to this in recent years. Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber and perhaps another one I am forgeting who had top 5 seasons at ages 31 and 32 ect. so while it is a rare occurance and trends are most definitly on the side of a decline at age 30 that does not mean that LT will not be the next recent exception to this trend.Point 3 - No I have not been offered AD for LT. The hype on AD has was so huge mid-season I dont think I could have made such a trade straight up. Maybe now after 4 games of mortal performance that is somthing that could be achieved... I will look into it. Over the past 2 years the player I considered moving LT for was Portis. Not Portis alone but for Portis and Fitz for example. Portis + another top 5 player is what I was looking at. To be honest I think Portis has shown more signs of wearing down than LT has this season even though Portis is much younger.Point 4 - Westbrook is no spring chicken either and has a much more injury riddled/risky past than LT does. I know a lot of people are impressed with his performance this year but lets get things in perspective. This has been a down year for RBs as a whole. A trend that will probobly continue as the passing game becomes more and more prominant due to the rules and team management. But I am sorry I do not think Westbrook belongs in the discussion. The main reason Westbrook is competitive with other RBs is due to Philly running a inordinate number of passing plays and Westbrook being so involved in the passing game. Westbrook is coming off of a career year this year. I dont know if he can manage over 250 carries again in a season. This is the 1st time he has eclipsed this mark. However what is interesting about the comparison is that LT is capable of catching a high number of passes also. And this may extend his career at a high level because of it (which may also work for Westbrook). LT like Faulk before has shown that if he cannot get his on the ground he will get it through the passing game like he did when he caught 100 balls.If you wanted to look at trading LT for Westbrook + another elite player I do think its worth consideration. But it is a bit risky given Westbrooks more fragile past compared to LT.

Going to grab lunch, then I'll respond to Bia's novel.

Keys Myaths said:

This is probably a different thread entirely, but why do people ask for so much more in trade for a player than they would in order to get the player? Seems the two should be pretty balanced.

Click to expand...

Because only a schmuck would take exactly what he'd give. Think about it, it just doesn't make sense to make a trade when you would do the exact same trade in reverse.

Walter Payton had some of his best years from ages 29-31. He topped 2000 all-purpose yards 4 times in his career, 3 of them happend when he was 29+.

I think LT, is of that same mold.

Keys,

Not sure why you continue to compare him to Priest Holmes or Shaun Alexander. Holmes had his first good year at 28, better years at 29 and 30 and then dropped off. He's clearly not comparable. Alexander is a little closer, but at year six (which is the last pre-injury year for Alexander), Tomlinson was more than 1,000 yards ahead of SA.

People are arguing that he's incomparable to other guys because he's had an incomparable first seven years. Emmitt Smith is probably the best comparison, and as others have noted, Emmitt had a pretty good run from 29-31. For dynasty purposes, he's not what LT was at 23, but he's still the most valuable back in the league. You could probably get him for a good value in some leagues where people tend to overvalue the "long term" over the next 2-3 years.

Here's something I didn't know. Even though he has an absurd number of touches, he has never led the league in carries, and hasn't led the league in touches since his second year. He's just been in the top five consistently throughout his career when others have burned out.

Keys Myaths said:

You mention that he'll extend his career longer than most RBs...the problem is, I really don't see an exception in elite RBs to this point. Which ones have been able to keep up such an amazing pace past the age of 29?

Click to expand...

Sanders played his last two seasons at 29 and 30. His season at 29 was the best of his career. His season at 30 was a dropoff, but 1780 yards from scrimmage.Payton had over 2000 yards from scrimmage at ages 29, 30, and 31, then fell off to 1715 at 32.Martin had 1456 and 1570 at 29 and 30, which was a bit of a dropoff from some of his previous years, but he rebounded with 1942 at age 31, leading the league in rushing.Not many exceptions, but then there really haven't been many RBs like LT, either.

Synthesizer said:

I'm the kind of guy who bets with a streak rather than against it. There has been at least 1 thread predicting Tomlinsons's downfall for each of the past 5 seasons or so.

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Really? There were threads predicting Tomlinson's downfall when he was 24 years old? Was old man age finally catching up to him then?There were threads predicting Tomlinson's downfall last year. Maybe one or two whackos the year before, but that's pretty much it. Remember, he's been a consensus top-3 draft pick for years now.

Keys Myaths said:

massraider said:

Yeah, I've been wondering about LT myself lately.



But I also think he could perform at a top 5 level for the next 2 years, easily, and maybe top 10-15 for longer. Two more years of solid production, maybe more, is a long time. It would have to be a very nice trade.

Basically, if I had a rotten team, with LT, then I'd trade him. If I thought my team had a chance to be competitive the next few seasons, I'd keep him.

Click to expand...

What's this based off of? What you've seen on TV?I don't mean to be rude, but I'm really interested in a statistical/historical argument here. Yes, LT is a once in a long-time type of back, but we've had these before (Emmitt, Shaun Alexander, Priest, etc.). They all suffered the same fate. I'm trying to figure out what is truly different about Tomlinson.

If you could get very good value for him right now (value enough to trade the top running back in FF), why wouldn't you do it? I am really looking for that argument.

Click to expand...

Watch the Chargers and count the number of times he actually gets hit hard. He'll go out of bounds whenever possible and if he knows he's going to get hit he'll go out to avoid it. Some may think that's a negative but he has avoided a lot of hard hits in his career by playing smart. Like any RB he could have a major injury but I don't think age and carries is as big of a concern for him as it is for RB's with a different running style.

Keys Myaths said:

Banger said:

I have a strange feeling that I've seen this thread for about the last 2-3 seasons. Too many touch's, due to breakdown, injury waiting to happen,etc and yet he keeps on truckin.

Click to expand...

I'm on record having defended him in every thread like this until now. 29 is the magic age to me, especially with this many touches, because it's happened to so many uber-elite RBs before him.

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I don't want to be misconstrued as saying that you shouldn't trade him in a dynasty if you get huge offer for him, just that I believe you shouldn't feel the need to trade him because he's 29. If you can get a lot for him then by all means take advantage of his value being as high as it will ever be. There's usually someone in dynasty league willing to mortgage the future for the chance to win now.

SSOG said:

Synthesizer said:

I'm the kind of guy who bets with a streak rather than against it. There has been at least 1 thread predicting Tomlinsons's downfall for each of the past 5 seasons or so.

Click to expand...

Really? There were threads predicting Tomlinson's downfall when he was 24 years old? Was old man age finally catching up to him then?There were threads predicting Tomlinson's downfall last year. Maybe one or two whackos the year before, but that's pretty much it. Remember, he's been a consensus top-3 draft pick for years now.

Click to expand...

It wasn't age as much as several articles with "undeniable stats" that he would breakdown/get injured due to his number of touch's/carries.