DeAngelo Williams (1 Viewer)

Why is DeAngelo Williams ranked so low? And I know he is sitting at #8, so its not like he is outside the first round, but that is the type of pick that can win you a league in the back half of the first round. It reminds me alot of Priest Holmes being undervalued in 2002-2003, Tiki Barber perenially going lower, Brian Westbrook's value in drafts until recently.

Is it the presence of Johnathan Stewart?

The belief that his touchdown numbers will regress greatly?

What has changed about his situation significantly compared to last season?

The thing about his touchdowns is that they probably will regress. He's not going to get as many long td's. But he wasn't just a TD guy. In my league that is more like a 75/25 yardage league, he was still #1. He's at over 5.1 ypc for his career, he just turned 26 and is right in the peak of running back prime. I pulled every running back since 1960 who rushed between 240 and 300 times in a season (273 for Williams last year) at age 24-26, and averaged 4.8 ypc or more. Thirteen times before Williams. The list stretches from Jim Taylor in 1961 to Billy Sims to Marshall Faulk. Michael Bennett is easily, by a distance farther than I can throw, the worst player on the list, and he also had the lowest fantasy point total of any on the list. He finished RB48 the next year. Otis Armstrong tore a knee early the next season, and bounced back for a RB9 finish a season later. The other 11 finished as follows in fantasy points the season after their moderate starter carries, high ypc season: 1, 1. 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 9, 10, 10.

He's probably not Thurman Thomas or Marshall Faulk, as his reception totals are on the low end of guys on that list. But he did finish with the highest ypc and 2nd highest fantasy totals, and just by watching him, I feel comfortable saying he is nothing like Michael Bennett. If you put up a high ypc on a decent amount of carries, you're probably pretty stinkin good. The other players with similar rushing stats tend to bear that out.

I also happen to think he's not all that much of a risk to lose touches. Last year, I had a post about running back committees and "get the lead" players and "keep the lead" players that I'm going to try to find. One of the points I raised was that you want the "get the lead" guys because they will consistently get touches. They may not get 35 in a game, but they will consistently get 15-20. The "keep the lead" guys would be the ones who would fluctuate. I think the numbers from last year bore this out, as Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and DeAngelo had a pretty low standard deviation on their weekly touches. We saw guys like Lendale White and Johnathan Stewart put up overall decent numbers, but fluctuate more depending on if their team was winning or not.

Here is the breakdown of carries for Carolina last year, depending on whether Carolina won by more than 8, won by 8 or less, or lost the game.

Won by More than 8 (7 games)

Williams- 16.7 carries, 111.0 rush yds, 1.1 TD's.

Stewart - 14.9 carries, 73.3 rush yds, 0.9 TD's.

Won by 1-8 points (5 games)

Williams- 18.4 carries, 95.0 rush yds, 1.0 TD's.

Stewart - 10.6 carries, 50.4 rush yds, 0.6 TD's.

Lost game (4 games)

Williams- 16.0 carries, 65.8 rush yds, 1.3 TD's.

Stewart - 6.8 carries, 17.8 rush yds, 0.3 TD's.

So Williams' carry totals and td averages were not dependent on whether Carolina was playing with a lead or not, while Stewart's were. So if you think that Carolina is not likely to finish 12-4 again, that shouldn't have too much effect on how you project Williams. He will likely be the one getting the majority of touches when the Panthers are down 5 in the fourth quarter. When they are winning comfortably, then yes, Stewart will get alot of carries.

Final point. I'm not big on splits in most cases. But Williams was apparently not a Fox guy, and I think the second half split means that Fox would have to his head examined to cut back on DeAngelo Williams this year and not take full advantage of his talents. Over the last 8 games last year, Williams went for 993 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns. I find it hard to believe that a back in the prime of his career, with no abnormal injury concern or end of season high work rate, would be ranked at #8 if he produced those numbers over the final half of the previous season.

He ranges from 2nd to 13th in our rankings right now (I have him 5th) so I wouldn't say it's crazily out of whack. I can't speak for those who don't view him as a top 5 option, but I know from conversations I've had with other guys on staff, there are some who believe the combination of Jon Stewart's skill set combined with the likely decline in over TD production makes Williams a risky bet to repeat last year's monster season. Again, that's conjecture as I think his 2008 performance was so blisteringly good on every front that no team would look to reduce his workload without an injury or major off-the-field overhang.

As a Panthers fan, I watched every minute of DeAngelo Williams last season and the season before that. Last season was special for him obviously. The duo we have at RB is a very effective one, and fears of Stewart taking D-Will's goal line touches may have some legs, but not a huge amount. We are a power running team and both guys will get their carries. However, I still believe Williams is worth more as he hits more home runs generally. The only thing I am concerned about is our tougher schedule this year, but I still expect D-Will to be worth a late first round pick (at least that's where I hope he falls!).

Look at the trends people:

FACT A: The more attempts this guy receives, the higher the numbers he puts up.

2006:

121 Attempts / 501 Yards / 4.1 YPC / 1 TD

2007:

144 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TD

2008:

273 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.5 YPC / 18 TD

FACT B: The Panthers are rushing the ball more and more every year.

2006: 348 Attempts

2007: 391 Attempts

2008: 457 Attempts

FACT C: The RB2 has never taken more than 40% of the workload.

2006: D-Will: 37%

2007: D-Will: 37%

2008: J-Stew: 40%

FACT D: A RBBC gives both D-Will and J-Stew a better chance to stay healthy.

-

What does this all mean?

+Deangelo Williams' production does not decrease with increased carries.

+The Panthers run the ball more every year.

+The most J-Stew will steal is about 40% of the carries.

(Does it matter when the team is projected give these guys up to 500 carries next season?)

+Not only will Deangelo see 250 carries, he'll remain healthier and be able to put up killer numbers all season because he'll remain healthy ALL Season.

=

Potential for an ELITE Season for D-Willa, and a servicable RB2 season for J-Stew.

The trends don't lie.

I remember when Larry Johnson put up monster numbers after Priest Holmes got injured. The following season, there was a lively debate around the strategy of drafting and starting 'both'.

Unlike the conventional handcuff where the secondary back doesn't have enough value to start if the RB1 is healthy, LJ and Priest could generate RB1 and RB2 numbers in the 'same' game.

And of course, if one goes down to injury...you have a monster.

I think this is one of those very rare occurances where a handcuffed pair could both be in your starting lineup.

Jason Wood said:

He ranges from 2nd to 13th in our rankings right now (I have him 5th) so I wouldn't say it's crazily out of whack. I can't speak for those who don't view him as a top 5 option, but I know from conversations I've had with other guys on staff, there are some who believe the combination of Jon Stewart's skill set combined with the likely decline in over TD production makes Williams a risky bet to repeat last year's monster season. Again, that's conjecture as I think his 2008 performance was so blisteringly good on every front that no team would look to reduce his workload without an injury or major off-the-field overhang.

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Thanks, Jason. I know 8th may not seem out of whack. The difference between 3rd and 8th though at the top of the draft is probably larger than 25th and 39th. I hadn't looked at anybody else's rankings in the offseason til today, and sort of penciled some tiered lists together. I would take ADP at #1, but Williams has to be in the discussion with some others starting at 2. and if he is around at 5, I am ecstatic. It just stood out to me, because as you say, someone that "blisteringly good" last year was toward the lower half of the first. This also raises something that I've been meaning to bring up about how we calculate average draft position. Williams average ranking is #8, but his average draft position, relying on the FBG rankings, likely is higher. If you take two players with an average rank of 10, and Player A is ranked 2nd, 3rd and 5th by three people, and below 15th by others, while Player B is ranked at 10 across the board, then Player A is going to have an average draft position of less than 8, while Player B may have an average draft position of 12.Has FBG considered coming up with an alternative formula to calculate ADP that takes this into account? Average Draft Position is driven highly by what the top 30% or so think of that player, and not at all by what the bottom 20% think. One person out of 10 could think Williams shouldnt be drafted in the top 40, and while he changes the average rank, it would do absolutely nothing to where Williams would be drafted in a mock draft. Last year, when I had Larry Johnson outside the top 25 while many had him in the top 10, the extent of my opinion had no impact on where he would be drafted.

JKL said:

Jason Wood said:

He ranges from 2nd to 13th in our rankings right now (I have him 5th) so I wouldn't say it's crazily out of whack. I can't speak for those who don't view him as a top 5 option, but I know from conversations I've had with other guys on staff, there are some who believe the combination of Jon Stewart's skill set combined with the likely decline in over TD production makes Williams a risky bet to repeat last year's monster season. Again, that's conjecture as I think his 2008 performance was so blisteringly good on every front that no team would look to reduce his workload without an injury or major off-the-field overhang.

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Thanks, Jason. I know 8th may not seem out of whack. The difference between 3rd and 8th though at the top of the draft is probably larger than 25th and 39th. I hadn't looked at anybody else's rankings in the offseason til today, and sort of penciled some tiered lists together. I would take ADP at #1, but Williams has to be in the discussion with some others starting at 2. and if he is around at 5, I am ecstatic. It just stood out to me, because as you say, someone that "blisteringly good" last year was toward the lower half of the first. This also raises something that I've been meaning to bring up about how we calculate average draft position. Williams average ranking is #8, but his average draft position, relying on the FBG rankings, likely is higher. If you take two players with an average rank of 10, and Player A is ranked 2nd, 3rd and 5th by three people, and below 15th by others, while Player B is ranked at 10 across the board, then Player A is going to have an average draft position of less than 8, while Player B may have an average draft position of 12.Has FBG considered coming up with an alternative formula to calculate ADP that takes this into account? Average Draft Position is driven highly by what the top 30% or so think of that player, and not at all by what the bottom 20% think. One person out of 10 could think Williams shouldnt be drafted in the top 40, and while he changes the average rank, it would do absolutely nothing to where Williams would be drafted in a mock draft. Last year, when I had Larry Johnson outside the top 25 while many had him in the top 10, the extent of my opinion had no impact on where he would be drafted.

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ADP is different than our average ranking. Obviously we provide constant updates to ADP from a variety of sources, and our rankings are also real time. For what it's worth, I took Williams with the 6th overall pick happily in our mock draft that will appear in the magazine.

Eminence said:

Look at the trends people:

FACT A: The more attempts this guy receives, the higher the numbers he puts up.

2006:

121 Attempts / 501 Yards / 4.1 YPC / 1 TD

2007:

144 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TD

2008:

273 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.5 YPC / 18 TD

FACT B: The Panthers are rushing the ball more and more every year.

2006: 348 Attempts

2007: 391 Attempts

2008: 457 Attempts

FACT C: The RB2 has never taken more than 40% of the workload.

2006: D-Will: 37%

2007: D-Will: 37%

2008: J-Stew: 40%

FACT D: A RBBC gives both D-Will and J-Stew a better chance to stay healthy.

-

What does this all mean?

+Deangelo Williams' production does not decrease with increased carries.

+The Panthers run the ball more every year.

+The most J-Stew will steal is about 40% of the carries.

(Does it matter when the team is projected give these guys up to 500 carries next season?)

+Not only will Deangelo see 250 carries, he'll remain healthier and be able to put up killer numbers all season because he'll remain healthy ALL Season.

=

Potential for an ELITE Season for D-Willa, and a servicable RB2 season for J-Stew.

The trends don't lie.

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Another thing the numbers don't lie about is that a rookie came in and got 40% of the carries. A rookie that was recovering from foot surgery and was limited during the season with a heel injury. A rookie that was drafted in the first round.You don't think there is a chance Stewart's opportunity increases this year? I think DeAngelo will still get his, but this puts a damper on my expectations for him. If I were drafting in the top 5 I'd be hard pressed to take him there.

I just want to add that I traded Reggie Bush for DeAngelo in 2 different dynasty leagues this year (both PPR) and am feeling excited about this year.

Ripleys said:

I just want to add that I traded Reggie Bush for DeAngelo in 2 different dynasty leagues this year (both PPR) and am feeling excited about this year.

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I traded Maroney and my 1st and 2nd round picks for our rookie draft (both last picks of the rounds) for DeAngelo. I already had Stewart. I would have given up more.

puckalicious said:

Another thing the numbers don't lie about is that a rookie came in and got 40% of the carries. A rookie that was recovering from foot surgery and was limited during the season with a heel injury. A rookie that was drafted in the first round.

You don't think there is a chance Stewart's opportunity increases this year? I think DeAngelo will still get his, but this puts a damper on my expectations for him. If I were drafting in the top 5 I'd be hard pressed to take him there.

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I can refute that claim by merely looking at the 2006, the year Deangelo Williams was drafted in the FIRST ROUND. Deangelo had ankle injuries that season, and still got 40% of the carries.That season Foster put up 1056 total yards, and 3 TDs.

While DeAngelo put up 814 total yards, and 2 TDs.

Even though DeAngelo was doing more with his carries, the stubborn Fox kept the 60/40 share from the year before.

In our sceanario, the rookie is NOT outproducing the veteran. Given the track record Deangelo's workload is not likely to go down any time soon.

Even in the rare chance that somehow J-Stew gets 50% of the carries. The Panthers trend suggests they are running the ball more and more every season. Hell! Look at how much more they ran the ball at the end of the season as apposed to the beginning. I've got about 500 carries between D-Will and J-Stew... regardless of how it's split. DeAngelo will put up numbers.

puckalicious said:

Eminence said:

Look at the trends people:

FACT A: The more attempts this guy receives, the higher the numbers he puts up.

2006:

121 Attempts / 501 Yards / 4.1 YPC / 1 TD

2007:

144 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TD

2008:

273 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.5 YPC / 18 TD

FACT B: The Panthers are rushing the ball more and more every year.

2006: 348 Attempts

2007: 391 Attempts

2008: 457 Attempts

FACT C: The RB2 has never taken more than 40% of the workload.

2006: D-Will: 37%

2007: D-Will: 37%

2008: J-Stew: 40%

FACT D: A RBBC gives both D-Will and J-Stew a better chance to stay healthy.

-

What does this all mean?

+Deangelo Williams' production does not decrease with increased carries.

+The Panthers run the ball more every year.

+The most J-Stew will steal is about 40% of the carries.

(Does it matter when the team is projected give these guys up to 500 carries next season?)

+Not only will Deangelo see 250 carries, he'll remain healthier and be able to put up killer numbers all season because he'll remain healthy ALL Season.

=

Potential for an ELITE Season for D-Willa, and a servicable RB2 season for J-Stew.

The trends don't lie.

Click to expand...

Another thing the numbers don't lie about is that a rookie came in and got 40% of the carries. A rookie that was recovering from foot surgery and was limited during the season with a heel injury. A rookie that was drafted in the first round.You don't think there is a chance Stewart's opportunity increases this year? I think DeAngelo will still get his, but this puts a damper on my expectations for him. If I were drafting in the top 5 I'd be hard pressed to take him there.

Click to expand...

There's a couple issues with the above. First is that Stewart got 40% of the carries but he still only got 40% of the carries. There's no question this will be a RBBC. But there's just no reason to think that Stewart is going to start getting the large piece of the pie. Specifically, there's no reason to give a RB less carries after running for 1500 yds and scoring 20 TDs. It doesn't matter what Stewart did. It doesn't matter where Stewart was drafted. The bottomline is that as good as Stewart performed (which was nice but not exceptional), it simply doesn't compare to what DeAngelo was doing in the same situations. So, had DeAngelo not done as much with those carries, then I could buy the argument that Stewart would get more. But he did do well and it defies common sense to have a RB run for 1500 yds and 20 TDs and give him the ball LESS. This is NOT a knock on Stewart. He's a fantastic RB. He did quite well in his rookie year. The kid will get his shot eventually. But right now, as good as he was/is, DeAngelo is simply better. Unless Williams starts to falter, you don't give the ball more to a guy who isn't doing as much with it as the starter.

IMO we will see more of the same this year in terms of carries.

Only question is, will Williams do the same with his number of carries?

18TD's and 5.5/ypc is very hard to reproduce, almost by default you have to think Williams will not reproduce similar numbers.

My DeAngelo Outlook:

1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries.

I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year?

2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15.

He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue.

3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

Eminence said:

Look at the trends people:

FACT A: The more attempts this guy receives, the higher the numbers he puts up.

2006:

121 Attempts / 501 Yards / 4.1 YPC / 1 TD

2007:

144 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TD

2008:

273 Attempts / 717 Yards / 5.5 YPC / 18 TD

FACT B: The Panthers are rushing the ball more and more every year.

2006: 348 Attempts

2007: 391 Attempts

2008: 457 Attempts

FACT C: The RB2 has never taken more than 40% of the workload.

2006: D-Will: 37%

2007: D-Will: 37%

2008: J-Stew: 40%

FACT D: A RBBC gives both D-Will and J-Stew a better chance to stay healthy.

-

What does this all mean?

+Deangelo Williams' production does not decrease with increased carries.

+The Panthers run the ball more every year.

+The most J-Stew will steal is about 40% of the carries.

(Does it matter when the team is projected give these guys up to 500 carries next season?)

+Not only will Deangelo see 250 carries, he'll remain healthier and be able to put up killer numbers all season because he'll remain healthy ALL Season.

=

Potential for an ELITE Season for D-Willa, and a servicable RB2 season for J-Stew.

The trends don't lie.

Click to expand...

It's actually pretty rare for this power running team to land a top10 RB under the Fox era...go back a little more over on Drinen's site and you will see that when the Panthers make the playoffs they tend to be able to run the ball a lot like last season. Schedule will be a lot tougher, and with your approach where does it end? In 3-4 years with the "trend" the Panthers are going to run it what...600 times? It is more likely they come off those numbers a bit. I have DWill in my top10-12 but not in the top5.

I landed D-Williams at 2.09 in a league I joined from this very message board.

I don't know if that means anything. Maybe it was a mistake for him to fall that far. I made a few mistakes in that draft... But landed a L-Fitz/D-Williams combo... made up for it a little.

gonzobill5 said:

My DeAngelo Outlook:1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries. I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year? 2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15. He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue. 3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

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This is why DeAngelo is a tough guy to rate. I don't agree with any of these 3 points.I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%? Because DeAngelo didn't when Foster was the starter? His carries didn't increase as year went on because his health didn't increase. Stewart was hurt pretty much all year with more than just the foot injury he came into the league with, its extremely impressive he put up the numbers he did playing through it. Factoring that and other things in, it is not a forgone conclusion that DeAngelo is the greater talent. DeAngelo had two 4-TD games when Stewart was injured. No back since Barry Sanders has had that many TD's from outside 10 yards in a season. That won't continue(it didn't for Barry) and he will regress to the mean,which may very well still be 5-6 TD's but not 10+.40 catches seems possible, but its far from a certainty. They don't throw to their backs much when they have 2 good WR's and even at this stage Muhammed is still a good WR. I would guess DeAngelo gets 25-30 catches and Stewart gets 10-15.I'm a Panthers fan and I really believe this is the best running team in the NFL. But this is going to be a true committee with a lot closer to a 50-50 split then DeAngelo owners would like. Fantasy wise, its not unreasonable for both of them to finish between 10-20, but unless one of them is hurt(which again, Stewart was last year) neither will be top-5.ETA: I also don't think its a lock that the Panthers rushing numbers regress a whole lot. I just think they will even out a lot more.

Players generally regress after record breaking or near record breaking seasons. LT after his 31 TD season. Alexander after his 28 TD season. Peyton after his 49 TD season. Etc etc.

Now, DeAngelo didn't have a record breaking season or anything last year, but him and Stewart combined for 3000 yards and 30 touchdowns last year. Does anyone really see the Carolina running game generating those kinds of numbers again this year? It certainly seems like an outlier to me, which we see all the time in the NFL.

Beyond that, Jonathan Stewart was a rookie last year with a nagging hamstring injury. This year he enters year 2 and will start the year healthy. Is there any reason to think his percentage of the touches WON'T go up, at least by some amount, this year?

So basically, DeAngelo gets a smaller piece of a smaller pie this year than last.

travdogg said:

I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%?

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And I've yet to hear a good reason by DeAngelo should/will get less carries than he got last year. I'm sure your answer is "because Stewart was great and he's a 1st round pick". Well, to counter that and actually answer your question above, the answer is 1500 yds, 5.5 ypc, and 20 TDs. In order for Stewart to get more than the 40% last year, that would mean DeAngelo would have to get less. Which reason is more important for an NFL team. The fact that a guy was a 1st round pick (which, btw, they BOTH were) or the fact that one of them ran for a high ypc, a buttload of yds, and 20 TDs? I'm gonna guess that the latter is more important to Carolina.

travdogg said:

gonzobill5 said:

My DeAngelo Outlook:

1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries.

I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year?

2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15.

He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue.

3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

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This is why DeAngelo is a tough guy to rate. I don't agree with any of these 3 points.I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%? Because DeAngelo didn't when Foster was the starter? His carries didn't increase as year went on because his health didn't increase. Stewart was hurt pretty much all year with more than just the foot injury he came into the league with, its extremely impressive he put up the numbers he did playing through it. Factoring that and other things in, it is not a forgone conclusion that DeAngelo is the greater talent.



DeAngelo had two 4-TD games when Stewart was injured. No back since Barry Sanders has had that many TD's from outside 10 yards in a season. That won't continue(it didn't for Barry) and he will regress to the mean,which may very well still be 5-6 TD's but not 10+.

40 catches seems possible, but its far from a certainty. They don't throw to their backs much when they have 2 good WR's and even at this stage Muhammed is still a good WR. I would guess DeAngelo gets 25-30 catches and Stewart gets 10-15.

I'm a Panthers fan and I really believe this is the best running team in the NFL. But this is going to be a true committee with a lot closer to a 50-50 split then DeAngelo owners would like. Fantasy wise, its not unreasonable for both of them to finish between 10-20, but unless one of them is hurt(which again, Stewart was last year) neither will be top-5.

ETA: I also don't think its a lock that the Panthers rushing numbers regress a whole lot. I just think they will even out a lot more.

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this is good info

Ministry of Pain said:

It's actually pretty rare for this power running team to land a top10 RB under the Fox era...go back a little more over on Drinen's site and you will see that when the Panthers make the playoffs they tend to be able to run the ball a lot like last season. Schedule will be a lot tougher, and with your approach where does it end? In 3-4 years with the "trend" the Panthers are going to run it what...600 times? It is more likely they come off those numbers a bit. I have DWill in my top10-12 but not in the top5.

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Obviously they're not going to run the ball 600 times, but it's likely to increase for next year. After a stellar run-game last year, why would they do anything but run the ball more?After a breakout season for DeAngelo Williams, performing arguably as the best back in the league NFL and Fantasy-wise. Why would they give him less carries?

Eminence said:

Obviously they're not going to run the ball 600 times, but it's likely to increase for next year. After a stellar run-game last year, why would they do anything but run the ball more?After a breakout season for DeAngelo Williams, performing arguably as the best back in the league NFL and Fantasy-wise. Why would they give him less carries?

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The reason would be that they're less likely to win 7 of their games comfortably and go 12-4. Winning leads to more carries. Still, I do think that having two good backs expands the running pie. I would expect a slight regression based on playing a few more close games and/or trailing in the second half.As I said earlier though, I think that is safer for Williams to hold touches. Those touches may instead come in the form of receptions, but he is more likely to play the role of third down back and play a higher percentage in passing situations.

travdogg said:

DeAngelo had two 4-TD games when Stewart was injured. No back since Barry Sanders has had that many TD's from outside 10 yards in a season. That won't continue(it didn't for Barry) and he will regress to the mean,which may very well still be 5-6 TD's but not 10+.

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Having something in common with Barry Sanders is never a bad thing. His career definitely went nowhere after that. While the # of longer touchdowns is a rare event and not easily repeatable, the skill that allowed him to do that suggests he is not a fluke and should continue to be a good player at age 26.

FreeBaGeL said:

Players generally regress after record breaking or near record breaking seasons. LT after his 31 TD season. Alexander after his 28 TD season. Peyton after his 49 TD season. Etc etc.Now, DeAngelo didn't have a record breaking season or anything last year, but him and Stewart combined for 3000 yards and 30 touchdowns last year. Does anyone really see the Carolina running game generating those kinds of numbers again this year? It certainly seems like an outlier to me, which we see all the time in the NFL.Beyond that, Jonathan Stewart was a rookie last year with a nagging hamstring injury. This year he enters year 2 and will start the year healthy. Is there any reason to think his percentage of the touches WON'T go up, at least by some amount, this year?So basically, DeAngelo gets a smaller piece of a smaller pie this year than last.

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It would be easy to say that he was the #1 RB last year. However, other RB1's in other seasons have scored more fantasy points. So I compared him to other backs since 1990 with similar fantasy point totals. I used a range of 250-310 fantasy points scored (Williams had 284 in standard non-ppr scoring). 56 players qualified from 1990-2007. If we use the mean, then the numbers will be pulled down by those seasons where injuries sapped the numbers--for example, Terry Allen and Garrison Hearst missed the entire next season with knee injuries. But I prefer to look at the median and percentile performances to get a good sense of over/under (does it really matter if a guy gets 100 fantasy points or 0 the next season?).Age clearly matters. Here's a breakdown of the median fantasy finish the following season, depending on the running back's age in Year N:23 and under: 245 F pts, median finish 5.524-26: 266 F pts, median finish 4.5 (median F pts in Year N was 264.5)27 and older: 180 F pts, median finish 15.5So running backs age 24-26 hold their value the best. Half finished RB4 or higher the next year. Half finished with 265 or more Fantasy Points the next year. 67% of similar Fantasy backs at ages 24-26 finished with at least 225 Fantasy points the next season, and 79% finished with at least 200 Fantasy points. The remainder who failed to reach that number were entirely due to injury. Now a running back who has a median expectation of 264.5 Fantasy Points shouldn't go at RB4 or RB5, but at RB1 or RB2. The question is how much do we come off that for DeAngelo Williams? Apparently, quite a bit based on where he is going in mock drafts. It seems the primary reason expressed here is Jonathan Stewart.The other 9 backs who posted a fantasy total similar to Williams on 300 or fewer carries and didn't suffer a significant injury all had more rush attempts and touches the following season. The question is how much does Stewart slow that trend. He was there last year, so its not like he is an entirely new variable. Generally, if a back is as productive as Williams was last year, he gets more touches the following season. Personally, I have a hard time believing that he reduces his touches this year barring injury, even if the presence of Stewart slows how many more touches he gets versus other guys on this list. I suppose Jonathan Stewart could be the next Jim Brown though, which could justify the decision.It's been a good discussion though. I'm just in the camp that think the presence of Stewart buys you value if it drops Williams to RB8. If I can put my thoughts in formula formerceived Drop in Draft Position due to Stewart >>>>> Actual Drop due to Stewart >>> Average Finish of a RB of similar peak who didn't have a Jonathan Stewart on roster in both year N and year N+1.

and hasn't it been a while since the same RB led the FF world in scoring 2 years in a row? I think we're due for that again. And Williams has as good a shot as any back this season IMO.

JKL said:

Eminence said:

Obviously they're not going to run the ball 600 times, but it's likely to increase for next year. After a stellar run-game last year, why would they do anything but run the ball more?After a breakout season for DeAngelo Williams, performing arguably as the best back in the league NFL and Fantasy-wise. Why would they give him less carries?

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The reason would be that they're less likely to win 7 of their games comfortably and go 12-4. Winning leads to more carries. Still, I do think that having two good backs expands the running pie. I would expect a slight regression based on playing a few more close games and/or trailing in the second half.As I said earlier though, I think that is safer for Williams to hold touches. Those touches may instead come in the form of receptions, but he is more likely to play the role of third down back and play a higher percentage in passing situations.

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This is the best argument IMO for why Williams may not repeat last year. I like his chances to do well, but like I said I'd have a hard drafting him in the top 5 above these guys:MJDAPTurnerForteWestbrookNow that I look at this list, I think drafting from 4-6 might be the sweet spot. All these guys (and even Dwill) have a pretty similar chance at being #1.

add Portis to that list. Just a hunch.

I believe I have Williams as my No. 4 RB so like Wood, I can't speak for the others, but I'll enjoy speculating until we hear more explanations.

I would guess the other staff believes Stewart is more talented. Stewart is bigger, faster, and he's seen as a complete phenom when it came to his physical skills when he was entering college. Maybe one unspoken thought about Williams (in addition to the whole idea of regression) is that he couldn't beat out a back who is now backing up Frank Gore and that back (Foster) couldn't beat out Stephen Davis. In a sense, I think it's easy for people to look at Stewart and Williams and believe Williams' year was the best he'll ever have by a mile and Stewart's day is coming sooner than later.

Talent-wise, I loved what I saw from Jonathan Stewart when he was on the field at Oregon, but I thought Williams was one of the best backs in that much heralded '06 draft class and was nearly as impressed with him. I think a lot of people didn't see Williams as a powerful back coming out of Memphis, but he was a weight room freak and it translated very well in his play. One of the things that Williams showed this year that he demonstrated regularly in college was great vision and cutback ability at the line of scrimmage. He routinely made that one extra cut to get the big gain or broke that one extra tackle. That's what was missing the first couple of years at Carolina.

The one concern I have with Stewart that I never had with Williams is durability. For the next few seasons I think the onus is on Stewart - much like it was on Foster when he was at Carolina - to prove he can stay healthy enough to produce on the field consistently.

Matt Waldman said:

I believe I have Williams as my No. 4 RB so like Wood, I can't speak for the others, but I'll enjoy speculating until we hear more explanations.I would guess the other staff believes Stewart is more talented. Stewart is bigger, faster, and he's seen as a complete phenom when it came to his physical skills when he was entering college. Maybe one unspoken thought about Williams (in addition to the whole idea of regression) is that he couldn't beat out a back who is now backing up Frank Gore and that back (Foster) couldn't beat out Stephen Davis. In a sense, I think it's easy for people to look at Stewart and Williams and believe Williams' year was the best he'll ever have by a mile and Stewart's day is coming sooner than later. Talent-wise, I loved what I saw from Jonathan Stewart when he was on the field at Oregon, but I thought Williams was one of the best backs in that much heralded '06 draft class and was nearly as impressed with him. I think a lot of people didn't see Williams as a powerful back coming out of Memphis, but he was a weight room freak and it translated very well in his play. One of the things that Williams showed this year that he demonstrated regularly in college was great vision and cutback ability at the line of scrimmage. He routinely made that one extra cut to get the big gain or broke that one extra tackle. That's what was missing the first couple of years at Carolina. The one concern I have with Stewart that I never had with Williams is durability. For the next few seasons I think the onus is on Stewart - much like it was on Foster when he was at Carolina - to prove he can stay healthy enough to produce on the field consistently.

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Thanks, Matt. Good thoughts. I will say that when I looked at the mock draft results linked by -baller, Williams was going toward the end of the first round on average. But when I created 20 randomly generated first round orders using the 12 most recent rankings by FBG experts, Williams average draft position was 5.4. and he went in the top 5 in 11 of the 20 sims. This is because, as you and Jason Wood note, 4 of the 12 have him top 5, and one of those 4 is going to end up taking him if he is still there in the middle of the first. Thus, the FBG expert consensus (in average draft position) is earlier than the masses as represented by all mock drafts. So, my post shouldn't be taken as any criticism (and its good that people have a range of beliefs).

Matt Waldman said:

Maybe one unspoken thought about Williams (in addition to the whole idea of regression) is that he couldn't beat out a back who is now backing up Frank Gore and that back (Foster) couldn't beat out Stephen Davis.

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This is the part that continues to befuddle me. Haven't people finally figured out that John Fox will ALWAYS place on emphasis on playing his veteran RBs? I mean, by now it has to be so obvious to everyone.....no?

JKL said:

Thanks, Matt. Good thoughts. I will say that when I looked at the mock draft results linked by -baller, Williams was going toward the end of the first round on average. But when I created 20 randomly generated first round orders using the 12 most recent rankings by FBG experts, Williams average draft position was 5.4. and he went in the top 5 in 11 of the 20 sims. This is because, as you and Jason Wood note, 4 of the 12 have him top 5, and one of those 4 is going to end up taking him if he is still there in the middle of the first. Thus, the FBG expert consensus (in average draft position) is earlier than the masses as represented by all mock drafts. So, my post shouldn't be taken as any criticism (and its good that people have a range of beliefs).

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I'm not sure I fully understand your method, but I'd like to read more on it. Is this something that maybe FBG should be provinding as subscriber content? I don't recall seeing this before and it sounds much more valuable than ADP.

Great writeup, JKL.

I agree that Williams should be RB2. In addition to having the lowest floor of any of the competition for that spot, I think he may have the highest ceiling. Color me surprised that every single FBG expert has MJD over Williams in non-PPR.

mozzy84 said:

travdogg said:

gonzobill5 said:

My DeAngelo Outlook:

1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries.

I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year?

2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15.

He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue.

3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

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This is why DeAngelo is a tough guy to rate. I don't agree with any of these 3 points.I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%? Because DeAngelo didn't when Foster was the starter? His carries didn't increase as year went on because his health didn't increase. Stewart was hurt pretty much all year with more than just the foot injury he came into the league with, its extremely impressive he put up the numbers he did playing through it. Factoring that and other things in, it is not a forgone conclusion that DeAngelo is the greater talent.



DeAngelo had two 4-TD games when Stewart was injured. No back since Barry Sanders has had that many TD's from outside 10 yards in a season. That won't continue(it didn't for Barry) and he will regress to the mean,which may very well still be 5-6 TD's but not 10+.

40 catches seems possible, but its far from a certainty. They don't throw to their backs much when they have 2 good WR's and even at this stage Muhammed is still a good WR. I would guess DeAngelo gets 25-30 catches and Stewart gets 10-15.

I'm a Panthers fan and I really believe this is the best running team in the NFL. But this is going to be a true committee with a lot closer to a 50-50 split then DeAngelo owners would like. Fantasy wise, its not unreasonable for both of them to finish between 10-20, but unless one of them is hurt(which again, Stewart was last year) neither will be top-5.

ETA: I also don't think its a lock that the Panthers rushing numbers regress a whole lot. I just think they will even out a lot more.

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this is good info

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No it isn't. Stewart had carries in both of those games.

Chase Stuart said:

Great writeup, JKL.I agree that Williams should be RB2. In addition to having the lowest floor of any of the competition for that spot, I think he may have the highest ceiling. Color me surprised that every single FBG expert has MJD over Williams in non-PPR.

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I love DWill but I also have MJD #1 right now with a bullet. I've always believed that if he didn't have someone like Fred Taylor to share the workload, he would be putting up monster seasons. MJD gets a chance to be THE guy this year, whereas D-Will has a legitimate potential star on the roster fighting for touches. That's why I like MJD a bit more. I'm also assuming the Jags get their OL situation fixed, which I believe will be the case as I was a fan of their draft choices in that regard.

Jason Wood said:

Chase Stuart said:

Great writeup, JKL.I agree that Williams should be RB2. In addition to having the lowest floor of any of the competition for that spot, I think he may have the highest ceiling. Color me surprised that every single FBG expert has MJD over Williams in non-PPR.

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I love DWill but I also have MJD #1 right now with a bullet. I've always believed that if he didn't have someone like Fred Taylor to share the workload, he would be putting up monster seasons. MJD gets a chance to be THE guy this year, whereas D-Will has a legitimate potential star on the roster fighting for touches. That's why I like MJD a bit more. I'm also assuming the Jags get their OL situation fixed, which I believe will be the case as I was a fan of their draft choices in that regard.

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I see both points. But I'm surprised every FBG ranker has MJD ahead.MJD should get a larger percentage of team RB touches, but it's tough to say if he'll get more touches overall and it's very tough to say who will get more FP. I think Williams is a bit safer because he's done it before. He's on a much better offense, IMO.

Williams could get the same number of touches and conceivably have much fewer fantasy points. The 2 key things for me are the TDs and YPC.

20 TDs is a career year for most RBs. That is an awful lot of TDs and I don't think it's something that can be counted on happening again. I think 10 TDs is more realistic.

As for the YPC, 5.5 is going to be tough to do again. 5.0 is a hell of a good year and that is more realistic to me.

The TDs are the biggest thing. I just don't see that many TDs again. If he got 10, he would have 60 fewer fantasy points. If he averaged a half point less YPC (5.0 instead of 5.5), he would lose about 150 yards or so, which is 15 fantasy points. That totals 75 fantasy points lost. If you use last year's numbers and drop the TDs and YPC to what I just mentioned, he would have dropped into a tier of RBs in the RB10 area. That is about where I have him ranked right now.

The above doesn't factor him losing touches to Stewart. I am a huge fan of Stewart's talent and I think Stewart will have more touches, but it will be an increase in team RB touches rather than DeAngelo losing any. I think DeAngelo's touches will be relatively close to last years, but if he did get less, I wouldn't be surprised.

Basically, DeAngelo could have the same number of carries and lose a lot of points, mainly from fewer TDs. I don't see anything near 20 TDs again. The RBs I have ranked higher are all RBs that I expect to carry a heavier workload. But the main reason I see him being in the lower end of the RB1 tier is a loss of TDs. I probably have him at the bottom of the range of TDs I expect.

Good stuff in here. Can't say exactly where I'd take Williams at this point. It does make me a bit nervous that he got more than 20 carries only three times last season. Admittedly, two of them were in the last two weeks, so maybe we'll see that continue into next season. However, if not, there's a lot of pressure on him to make the absolute most of the carries that gets. Not to say that he's not capable of it, but he doesn't have a lot of margin for error if you're looking for him to come anywhere close to last season's numbers. It's just that he'll have to keep breaking a ton of long runs to make that happen, and he'll have to do it against a tougher schedule. I think 1,200 yds and 12 td's are more likely than 1,500/20 but I do see him as a relatively safe pick (as long as you're not expecting the 20 td's again), which is appealing.

Edited for spelling.

FreeBaGeL said:

It certainly seems like an outlier to me, which we see all the time in the NFL

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This.

Desert_Power said:

mozzy84 said:

travdogg said:

gonzobill5 said:

My DeAngelo Outlook:

1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries.

I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year?

2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15.

He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue.

3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

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This is why DeAngelo is a tough guy to rate. I don't agree with any of these 3 points.I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%? Because DeAngelo didn't when Foster was the starter? His carries didn't increase as year went on because his health didn't increase. Stewart was hurt pretty much all year with more than just the foot injury he came into the league with, its extremely impressive he put up the numbers he did playing through it. Factoring that and other things in, it is not a forgone conclusion that DeAngelo is the greater talent.



DeAngelo had two 4-TD games when Stewart was injured. No back since Barry Sanders has had that many TD's from outside 10 yards in a season. That won't continue(it didn't for Barry) and he will regress to the mean,which may very well still be 5-6 TD's but not 10+.

40 catches seems possible, but its far from a certainty. They don't throw to their backs much when they have 2 good WR's and even at this stage Muhammed is still a good WR. I would guess DeAngelo gets 25-30 catches and Stewart gets 10-15.

I'm a Panthers fan and I really believe this is the best running team in the NFL. But this is going to be a true committee with a lot closer to a 50-50 split then DeAngelo owners would like. Fantasy wise, its not unreasonable for both of them to finish between 10-20, but unless one of them is hurt(which again, Stewart was last year) neither will be top-5.

ETA: I also don't think its a lock that the Panthers rushing numbers regress a whole lot. I just think they will even out a lot more.

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this is good info

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No it isn't. Stewart had carries in both of those games.

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Yes he had carries in those games, but he was injured in those games and if he hadn't been he would have gotten far more carries, and very likely could have taken 50% or more of DeAngelo's 8 scores in those games. In the Packers game, Stewart hurt his hamstring on the 2nd series of the game on a long run that he would have scored on had he not gotten hurt.I also would disagree that DeAngelo has a higher floor than any non-Peterson RB. He doesn't catch enough passes to have that high of a floor. I believe MJD's floor is far higher, as is a healthy Steven Jackson's.

Paging Tefertiller...

I am looking for him to do a full season of the last half next year.

gianmarco said:

travdogg said:

I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%?

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And I've yet to hear a good reason by DeAngelo should/will get less carries than he got last year. I'm sure your answer is "because Stewart was great and he's a 1st round pick". Well, to counter that and actually answer your question above, the answer is 1500 yds, 5.5 ypc, and 20 TDs. In order for Stewart to get more than the 40% last year, that would mean DeAngelo would have to get less. Which reason is more important for an NFL team. The fact that a guy was a 1st round pick (which, btw, they BOTH were) or the fact that one of them ran for a high ypc, a buttload of yds, and 20 TDs? I'm gonna guess that the latter is more important to Carolina.

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I think what DWill supporters fail to realize is just how impressive a season DWill had. Only 7 RBs in the history of the NFL have scored 280+ fantasy points with 275 carries or less. Of those only two players had less then 750 receiving yards. DWill had an amazing season. The problem for DWill isn't just losing carries it's not gaining carries. The only way to expect him to come close to his numbers is to either see an increase in his carries or receptions or receiving yards per catch. Something needs to give for him to stay at the top. It's unreasonable to count on him for 5.5 ypc and 20 tds again. 20 tds has only happened by a RB 23 times and only repeated 4 times and all of them were featured more then DWil, Faulk, LT, Emmit, and Holmes. Only 15 players in history have had more then 150 carries and had 5.5 ypc. So if we can't expect 5.5 ypc and 20 tds is highly unlikely again(especialy with only 275 rushes). Looking at Fox's record you can see Fox likes to split carries.Fox02 top RB 209 / 452 = 46%03 top RB 318 / 522 = 60.9%04 top RB 217 / 422 = 51 %05 top RB 205 / 487 = 42%06 top RB 227 / 423 = 53%07 top RB 247 / 451 = 54%08 top RB 273 / 504 = 54%AVG top RB gets 53.16%08 Carolina was #6 in rushing attempts. John Fox has shown he likes to split carries and expecting much more then the 54% seen last year seems unlikely to me. 504 Carries is large number for a season while I think it might be reasonable to expect them to get back there it seems unlikely they will increase that load to much. With ypc and tds dropping and even saying carries remain status qou, his numbers will drop. This makes his ceiling lower then last years numbers and lower then other RBs that will get more carries. When you figure that ADP, SJAX, MJD, Turner, LT, and Forte, Portis can get and extra 50 to 75 carries in their better scenarios plus additional work as a receiver it's not hard to see why they will be more attractive. Westbrook should also have more touches with his involvement in the receiving game. With a lesser workload it puts alot of pressure on him to keep performing at an his historic 08 level. A RB with 325 carries can average over a yard less per rush for the same yards. Plus they have more tds chances. Really the question is, given the same workload how does DWill return to the top? What is the argument workload will increase for DWill?

travdogg said:

gonzobill5 said:

My DeAngelo Outlook:1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries. I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year? 2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15. He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue. 3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

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This is why DeAngelo is a tough guy to rate. I don't agree with any of these 3 points.I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%? Because DeAngelo didn't when Foster was the starter? His carries didn't increase as year went on because his health didn't increase. Stewart was hurt pretty much all year with more than just the foot injury he came into the league with, its extremely impressive he put up the numbers he did playing through it. Factoring that and other things in, it is not a forgone conclusion that DeAngelo is the greater talent. DeAngelo had two 4-TD games when Stewart was injured. No back since Barry Sanders has had that many TD's from outside 10 yards in a season. That won't continue(it didn't for Barry) and he will regress to the mean,which may very well still be 5-6 TD's but not 10+.40 catches seems possible, but its far from a certainty. They don't throw to their backs much when they have 2 good WR's and even at this stage Muhammed is still a good WR. I would guess DeAngelo gets 25-30 catches and Stewart gets 10-15.I'm a Panthers fan and I really believe this is the best running team in the NFL. But this is going to be a true committee with a lot closer to a 50-50 split then DeAngelo owners would like. Fantasy wise, its not unreasonable for both of them to finish between 10-20, but unless one of them is hurt(which again, Stewart was last year) neither will be top-5.ETA: I also don't think its a lock that the Panthers rushing numbers regress a whole lot. I just think they will even out a lot more.

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Though I don't agree with some of your takes on things, you make some good arguments. The one thing I don't understand is how you can downplay his 11 TDs from outside the ten yard line as a fluke. To me, his 4 one yard TD plunges against the packers was a fluke because it was all about opportunity, something that he has no control over. While some of his long TD runs could have been the defense caught in overpursuit, I would think they would give you a better idea of his talent and hence his future production. I'm not sure what the Barry Sanders stat is supposed to mean. Barry was never a TD machine because he HAD to score them from so far away. Unless Stewart takes over the goal line duties, which he didn't last year, Williams will get his fair share of opportunities in close, and add a bunch of long runs in there too. To me that says he's a lock for 15.

Ministry of Pain said:

Paging Tefertiller...

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Thanks, MoP ....I am one that likes Williams as a player. He gives the Panthers a dynamic player who can can score from anywhere on the field. I think I fall closer to Tony (Borbely) and CBower above in general. I am less than optimistic about Williams' chances of finishing in the Top 5 RBs again. TDs are difficult to predict. He could average 100 total yards again per game, but 20 TDs is a huge feat that will be hard to duplicate. Also, I think Stewart could have a larger role than many believe. It is an unknown. And, for a pick high in the first round of a draft, I would prefer a RB with little competition for carries/touches.

CBower4545 said:

Fox02 top RB 209 / 452 = 46%03 top RB 318 / 522 = 60.9%04 top RB 217 / 422 = 51 %05 top RB 205 / 487 = 42%06 top RB 227 / 423 = 53%07 top RB 247 / 451 = 54%08 top RB 273 / 504 = 54%AVG top RB gets 53.16%

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Good analysis, but how much of this was due to Fox's desire for RBBC, and how much was due to RB injuries?

gonzobill5 said:

My DeAngelo Outlook:1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries. I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year? 2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15. He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue. 3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

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NOBODY in the NFL is a "Lock" to score 15 TDs. CRAZY TALK

Anthony Borbely said:

Williams could get the same number of touches and conceivably have much fewer fantasy points. The 2 key things for me are the TDs and YPC. 20 TDs is a career year for most RBs. That is an awful lot of TDs and I don't think it's something that can be counted on happening again. I think 10 TDs is more realistic. As for the YPC, 5.5 is going to be tough to do again. 5.0 is a hell of a good year and that is more realistic to me. The TDs are the biggest thing. I just don't see that many TDs again. If he got 10, he would have 60 fewer fantasy points. If he averaged a half point less YPC (5.0 instead of 5.5), he would lose about 150 yards or so, which is 15 fantasy points. That totals 75 fantasy points lost. If you use last year's numbers and drop the TDs and YPC to what I just mentioned, he would have dropped into a tier of RBs in the RB10 area. That is about where I have him ranked right now. The above doesn't factor him losing touches to Stewart. I am a huge fan of Stewart's talent and I think Stewart will have more touches, but it will be an increase in team RB touches rather than DeAngelo losing any. I think DeAngelo's touches will be relatively close to last years, but if he did get less, I wouldn't be surprised.Basically, DeAngelo could have the same number of carries and lose a lot of points, mainly from fewer TDs. I don't see anything near 20 TDs again. The RBs I have ranked higher are all RBs that I expect to carry a heavier workload. But the main reason I see him being in the lower end of the RB1 tier is a loss of TDs. I probably have him at the bottom of the range of TDs I expect.

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How many players do you project to score more TDs than Williams this year? I.e., if we played in TD-only leagues, where would you rank Williams?

travdogg said:

Desert_Power said:

mozzy84 said:

travdogg said:

gonzobill5 said:

My DeAngelo Outlook:

1. Stewart will not get more than 40% of the carries.

I don't care if he was a first round pick. The guy ahead of him is more talented and more productive and hence he will get the majority of the carries. For those of you that think that the panthers held back with Stewart because of his injury - why didn't his carries increase over the course of the year?

2. DeAngelo will have a hard time scoring 20 TDs again, but he's a lock for 15.

He scored 4 TDs in the packers game and all were 1 yard plunges. That's just being in a good situation, something you can't count on. But he scored 11 other TDs from outside the ten yardline. That speaks volumes to how explosive he is. That will continue.

3. He will catch 40 balls next year, and the increased receptions will help him surpass the total yards from 08. The panthers running game was so effective in 2008 that DeAngelo's abilities on 3rd downs were hardly utilized. They were hardly ever in 3rd and long situations. If their running game is just as good in 09, that's a good thing. If it isn't, it just means he'll rack up his points in other ways.

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This is why DeAngelo is a tough guy to rate. I don't agree with any of these 3 points.I've yet to hear a good reason why won't Stewart get more than 40%? Because DeAngelo didn't when Foster was the starter? His carries didn't increase as year went on because his health didn't increase. Stewart was hurt pretty much all year with more than just the foot injury he came into the league with, its extremely impressive he put up the numbers he did playing through it. Factoring that and other things in, it is not a forgone conclusion that DeAngelo is the greater talent.



DeAngelo had two 4-TD games when Stewart was injured. No back since Barry Sanders has had that many TD's from outside 10 yards in a season. That won't continue(it didn't for Barry) and he will regress to the mean,which may very well still be 5-6 TD's but not 10+.

40 catches seems possible, but its far from a certainty. They don't throw to their backs much when they have 2 good WR's and even at this stage Muhammed is still a good WR. I would guess DeAngelo gets 25-30 catches and Stewart gets 10-15.

I'm a Panthers fan and I really believe this is the best running team in the NFL. But this is going to be a true committee with a lot closer to a 50-50 split then DeAngelo owners would like. Fantasy wise, its not unreasonable for both of them to finish between 10-20, but unless one of them is hurt(which again, Stewart was last year) neither will be top-5.

ETA: I also don't think its a lock that the Panthers rushing numbers regress a whole lot. I just think they will even out a lot more.

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this is good info

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No it isn't. Stewart had carries in both of those games.

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Yes he had carries in those games, but he was injured in those games and if he hadn't been he would have gotten far more carries, and very likely could have taken 50% or more of DeAngelo's 8 scores in those games. In the Packers game, Stewart hurt his hamstring on the 2nd series of the game on a long run that he would have scored on had he not gotten hurt.I also would disagree that DeAngelo has a higher floor than any non-Peterson RB. He doesn't catch enough passes to have that high of a floor. I believe MJD's floor is far higher, as is a healthy Steven Jackson's.

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Tell me then, why would they take carries away from a proven-healthy who can get the job done. To an unproven back who was injured multiple times in his rookie season?In other words when Stewart was hurt, D-Willa stepped up. J-Stew is obviously injury-prone, why give him more carries when you've already got a competent back?

I am a firm believer that DeAngelo Williams is a talent up there with the likes of: Adrian Peterson, LT, ect.

Michael Fox said:

CBower4545 said:

Fox02 top RB 209 / 452 = 46%03 top RB 318 / 522 = 60.9%04 top RB 217 / 422 = 51 %05 top RB 205 / 487 = 42%06 top RB 227 / 423 = 53%07 top RB 247 / 451 = 54%08 top RB 273 / 504 = 54%AVG top RB gets 53.16%

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Good analysis, but how much of this was due to Fox's desire for RBBC, and how much was due to RB injuries?

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02' they didn't really have a lead back so possibly not by choice03' They gave 60% to Davis04' had many injuriesFrom 05 on however they seem to keep their top backs healthy and splitting carries. I think injuries forced RBBC in 04 for sure and I don't think that 04 was lost on the coaching staff either. I don't think Fox would run a RBBC just to run one even if there was a huge disparity in talent, but I think he has shown when it's close he prefers to split.

Anthony Borbely said:

Williams could get the same number of touches and conceivably have much fewer fantasy points. The 2 key things for me are the TDs and YPC. 20 TDs is a career year for most RBs. That is an awful lot of TDs and I don't think it's something that can be counted on happening again. I think 10 TDs is more realistic. As for the YPC, 5.5 is going to be tough to do again. 5.0 is a hell of a good year and that is more realistic to me. The TDs are the biggest thing. I just don't see that many TDs again. If he got 10, he would have 60 fewer fantasy points. If he averaged a half point less YPC (5.0 instead of 5.5), he would lose about 150 yards or so, which is 15 fantasy points. That totals 75 fantasy points lost. If you use last year's numbers and drop the TDs and YPC to what I just mentioned, he would have dropped into a tier of RBs in the RB10 area. That is about where I have him ranked right now.

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haha.....look, I'm not trying to get in the middle of this argument, but this reasoning is killin' me.you just had a guy run off 20 td's, so you figure that he'll only score half that this season because that's more 'ordinary'.the next logical step in this progression is that he's only good for bottom of the first round because scoring only 10 td's means he's just an 'ordinary' back, and there are a bunch of extraordinary backs who will score way more than a paltry 10 td's next year.is there any particular reason he scores just 10 td's,or did you just make that up to peg him at 8th, or whatever?

-baller said:

Anthony Borbely said:

Williams could get the same number of touches and conceivably have much fewer fantasy points. The 2 key things for me are the TDs and YPC. 20 TDs is a career year for most RBs. That is an awful lot of TDs and I don't think it's something that can be counted on happening again. I think 10 TDs is more realistic. As for the YPC, 5.5 is going to be tough to do again. 5.0 is a hell of a good year and that is more realistic to me. The TDs are the biggest thing. I just don't see that many TDs again. If he got 10, he would have 60 fewer fantasy points. If he averaged a half point less YPC (5.0 instead of 5.5), he would lose about 150 yards or so, which is 15 fantasy points. That totals 75 fantasy points lost. If you use last year's numbers and drop the TDs and YPC to what I just mentioned, he would have dropped into a tier of RBs in the RB10 area. That is about where I have him ranked right now.

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haha.....look, I'm not trying to get in the middle of this argument, but this reasoning is killin' me.you just had a guy run off 20 td's, so you figure that he'll only score half that this season because that's more 'ordinary'.the next logical step in this progression is that he's only good for bottom of the first round because scoring only 10 td's means he's just an 'ordinary' back, and there are a bunch of extraordinary backs who will score way more than a paltry 10 td's next year.is there any particular reason he scores just 10 td's,or did you just make that up to peg him at 8th, or whatever?

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Maybe he is saying that 2008 was out of the ordinary for Williams. In 2006, DWill scored 2 TDs in 154 touches. In 2007, he scored 5 TDs in 167 touches. Then, in 2008, Williams jumps up to 20 TDs in 296 touches. This is the reason I expect the TDs to decrease some.