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What is the chance that A. Johnson becomes a top 5 WR (1 Viewer)

Chance AJ to becomes a Top 5 WR? In the next few years.

  • 90% +

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 75%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 25%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • No Chance

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    0
Talent is there, but top 5 means the cards have to line up right.

Smith is the only WR in the top 5 who doesn't need (or have) an elite QB, I don't think AJ is quite that good.

ETA: 50%

 
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It all depends on the O-Line in Houston. Their defense will be terrible for awhile and they'll be throwing it alot. I'm fairly confident in what I've seen from Schaub that he can chuck the ball around the field. Lets see if he can get enough time to do so.

 
The question is similar to forecasting the weather. I would give it a 20% chance of possible top 5, 30% chance of top 10, and 40% chance of top 15, and 10% chance of top 20 (assuming health).

 
He was #16 WR in my league last year, 28 points off from #5 WR.

28 points equals either:

280 more yards

4 more TDS + 40 more yards

160 more yards + 2 more TDS

3 more TDS + 100 more yards

1 more TD + 220 more yards

5 more TD

Realistically these are attainable, some more than others. I mean replace one dud game with 160/2 and he's there. Will he do it, I have no clue.

 
Likely not this year. Schaub is a wild card and could turn out to be extremely terrible (which I think is unlikely, but could happen.) The main things holding Andre back are a lack of a legitimate WR2 to take away the double and triple teams he's always faced and an o'line that doesn't give the QB time enough to throw downfield.

The dink and dunk offense that Houston ran last year will be what we see again this year as Schaub is eased into the starting role. This will result in a large number of targets for AJ again but limiting his ypr and scoring opportunities. The o'line showed some improvement last year, but is still not that great. Until it gels and shows noticeable improvement and a 2nd receiving threat emerges, I think AJ will be stuck in the 1100 yards, 4-6 TD range.

 
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If you look at what he did the first half of last season Andre Johnson was on pace for over 130 catches and over 1500 yards. Then Carr tumbled and took AJ along with him. If Matt Schaub can be decent at quarterback (a big if) then Andre Johnson could possibly maintain his first half of 2006 level of play for a full season. If he does that he'll be at or around the top 5-10 range as early as this upcoming season.

 
Voted no chance. There are a ton of other very young WRs who are every bit as talented as Andre Johnson and who have already proven they can produce. Besides, Houston's offense is unlikely to ever become that great of a situation.

I'd put my money on Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Roy Williams, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reggie Wayne, and Marquez Colston all being more than enough to keep Andre Johnson out of the top-5 for the majority of his career.

Edit: not to mention Calvin Johnson, as well as whatever rookie WRs from this year's class wind up stepping up. And the unproven guys out there who are going to break out and leave us all stunned (maybe a Brandon Marshall, D.J. Hackett, or Devery Henderson). And the borderline guys who'll put together a good season from time to time (Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch, etc).

 
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SSOG said:
Voted no chance. There are a ton of other very young WRs who are every bit as talented as Andre Johnson and who have already proven they can produce. Besides, Houston's offense is unlikely to ever become that great of a situation.I'd put my money on Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Roy Williams, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reggie Wayne, and Marquez Colston all being more than enough to keep Andre Johnson out of the top-5 for the majority of his career.
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I also voted no chance for this exact same reason. Too many other quality receivers playing in better offenses. I just don't see Johnson cracking the top 5 playing in Houston.
 
-OZ- said:
Talent is there, but top 5 means the cards have to line up right. Smith is the only WR in the top 5 who doesn't need (or have) an elite QB, I don't think AJ is quite that good.ETA: 50%
Click to expand...
He did fantastic with Weinke last year....He doesnt need an elite Qb but he sure needs a good one
 
I voted NO CHANCE, and for the clearly defined reasons spelled out by SSOG.

I also don't believe that David Carr was a bad QB at all. I believe that the O-Line stinks in pass protection; Carr spent more time on his back the past 4 years than he did standing upright. Schaub will be looking at the heavens too and A. Johnson's performance will continue to suffer as a result!

 
SSOG said:
Voted no chance. There are a ton of other very young WRs who are every bit as talented as Andre Johnson and who have already proven they can produce. Besides, Houston's offense is unlikely to ever become that great of a situation.I'd put my money on Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Roy Williams, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reggie Wayne, and Marquez Colston all being more than enough to keep Andre Johnson out of the top-5 for the majority of his career.Edit: not to mention Calvin Johnson, as well as whatever rookie WRs from this year's class wind up stepping up. And the unproven guys out there who are going to break out and leave us all stunned (maybe a Brandon Marshall, D.J. Hackett, or Devery Henderson). And the borderline guys who'll put together a good season from time to time (Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch, etc).
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I agree with your argument, but not a lot of your examples.
 
Dancing Bear said:
I voted NO CHANCE, and for the clearly defined reasons spelled out by SSOG.I also don't believe that David Carr was a bad QB at all. I believe that the O-Line stinks in pass protection; Carr spent more time on his back the past 4 years than he did standing upright. Schaub will be looking at the heavens too and A. Johnson's performance will continue to suffer as a result!
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Carr held the ball a long time.Schaub is said to release quicker - that may give Andre more time.One thing I did notice last year, they rarely went deep with the long ball to Andre, who has great speed.
 
No chance if he is in Houston, 90% chance if he goes to a team with a clue as to how to use him and a decent WR2.

 
Interesting questions to ask here is:

What are some of the worst offenses to produce a top 5 WR? And where does the projected 07 Texan offense fit among them?

 
I guess we can point to 2003 Anquan Boldin. The Cardinals as a team only scored 225 points, dead last in the NFL. They were 26th in yardage. QBs jeff Blake and Josh McCown were both lousy in splitting time as the signal-caller. Marcel Shipp led the rushing attack with 830 yards. Emmitt Smith had 256 yards and 2 TDs.

And yet Boldin posted 101 / 1377 / 8

That put Boldin as the #4 WR on this list:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/fant2003.htm#wr

 
For full disclosure, I selected Andre Johnson in the middle rounds this year. I never had him before but, I just noticed he was dropping in most drafts including mine and his numbers aren't really that bad and, well, he might have some upside with a change at QB.

 
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I seem to be fairly good at picking out quality WRs in the middle rounds. I've hit on Galloway a few times. I've also found gems like Houshmanzadeh last year, or Kevin Johnson back about 5 years ago.

Two WRs seem to be dropping for no good reason in 2007.

1. Andre Johnson

2. Deion Branch

 
I don't think Andre is a bad WR, and I think he'll have plenty of top-15 or even top-10 finishes. I'm simply saying that I don't think he'll ever be a truly elite fantasy producer.

 
SSOG said:
I don't think Andre is a bad WR, and I think he'll have plenty of top-15 or even top-10 finishes. I'm simply saying that I don't think he'll ever be a truly elite fantasy producer.
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With the garbage QBs he's played with, it would be hard to crack the top 10.
 
BGP said:
For full disclosure, I selected Andre Johnson in the middle rounds this year. I never had him before but, I just noticed he was dropping in most drafts including mine and his numbers aren't really that bad and, well, he might have some upside with a change at QB.
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Thats odd as I have found AJ is going way to early for my liking. I think his best value was last year. In 05, he burned people only posting 63 rec 688 yards and 2 TDs. In 06, he had a very solid year with 103 rec 1,147 yards and 5 touchdowns. For a guy coming off his career high in yards and receptions, its hard to imagine he is dropping. I haven't seen it.
 
BGP said:
I seem to be fairly good at picking out quality WRs in the middle rounds. I've hit on Galloway a few times. I've also found gems like Houshmanzadeh last year, or Kevin Johnson back about 5 years ago.

Two WRs seem to be dropping for no good reason in 2007.

1. Andre Johnson

2. Deion Branch
Click to expand...
I think a lot of people are really high on DJ Hackett, and its a good enough reason for him to drop imo. Ive also have had some nice luck hitting on middle rd wrs, and Hackett is a must have target for me this year. The fact he can usually be had a round after Branch makes it even better
 
He was in the top 5 through the first half of the season last year in one of the worst offenses in football, so i don't think it's that crazy to think he could be top 5 through a whole season if the offense improves some in the next few years.

I'd say it's at least a 50/50 shot that in one of the next 4 seasons he ends up as a top 5 fantasy WR.

 
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