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Andre Johnson at #6 overall (1 Viewer)

D

Deuce'sWild

Footballguy
Current ADP has Andre Johnson at #6 overall. I love the guy, as he is very consistent, plays on a great offense, and isn't totally made of glass. However, I have a hard time taking a WR at #6 overall. Maybe it's just my old school, traditional thinking. I haven't taken the time to break down the ADP data like I usually do at this point, but at first glance it looks like you're going to be picking from guys like Pierre Thomas, Mathews, Charles or Grant (depending on how you rank them) for your RB1 in round 2.... and guys like Moreno, McCoy or Wells for your RB 2 in Rd3.

I would like this thread to discuss the risks/rewards of drafting a WR that early and taking a lesser RB in round 2 and 3.

Early thoughts

- it's not the RB1 that bothers me in Rd 2 as much as the guy I'd be left with as my RB2 in round 3 or 4....Wells, Moreno, Benson, McCoy.

- WRs seem to be flying off the board in Rd 2, but guys like Jennings, White, Rice, Marshall and D Jackson are frequently available.

- You seemed forced into taking a RB in RD2 and RD 3 if you go WR in RD 1. Whereas if you go RB Rd 1 you can go WR, RB and then pick up a top tier QB in Rd 4 (Romo or Schaub, perhaps).

Just an early look at it...trying to generate some thought on this. Proceed....

 
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IN PPR, I took Andre at the 4 spot over both Rice and Drew-Jones. I want a player I can rely on. I love Addai in late round 4-early round 5 as one of my RB's instead of taking some of the WR's left at that point instead.

I could take Andre at 1.3 in a PPR league and be happy about it. Now non PPR is a different story

 
You need to be more specific with scoring. Are we talking PPR leagues, must start 2 RBs, flex option? need more info and then I'll go into this. I do think he's the best option at #6 and so do a lot of others.

 
He's had an avg PPG over the past 2 seasons of almost 20...that is the best in the business over the last 32 games. The only knock on him previously was his injury report and he seems to have gotten past that. He's either 28 or 29 this season, still right in his prime as a WR, great QB with a big arm, nothing else in the passing attack that really steals targets away from him. He's a beast, he has the perfect build for the NFL, good size but not too enormous, able to break tackles and make big yards out of simple routes. Plays in warm weather mostly so he doesn't slow down much in Nov and Dec, travels to places like jax, Indy, and TN...not exactly cold weather towns most of the time.

He simply has very few flaws unless someone is getting nit picky, I find him one of the safest bets on the board and there is plenty of RBs to pick thru in the 3rd-8th rounds. AJ covers up for that iffy WR3 you have to start every week too.

 
I picked him at 1.6 in a PPR start 2RB, 3WR, no flex league. I thought it was a pretty easy pick in my case. I definitely favored him over the RBs on the board in that format (I think Turner and Mendy were the next two picks).

 
I love AJ at 1.06... He's been so consistantly good over his carrer and finally seems to have gotten over the injury bug. The guy is uber talented and is in a great situation in Houston. He really just has a lack of question marks whereas all the other top WRs kind of scare me...

Randy Moss is now 33

Larry Fitzgerald now has Leinart throwing him the ball and no more Boldin on the other side

Reggie Wayne is now 32, has a lot of competition for targets, and his production really tailed off in the 2nd half of last year

Calvin Johnson hasn't shown he can do it 2 years in a row

Miles Austin put up great numbers last year, but can he repeat???

And I definately think you can find great value in RBs in the 2nd-4th rounds. Lets take a look at PPR ADP:

2nd round - Mendy/DWill/Charles/Matthews

3rd round - Grant/Greene/Moreno/PT/Wells

4th round - McCoy/Benson/Stewart/Addai/Best

If it was a start 2 RB and 1 flex league then I may even grab AJ and then take 3 straight RBs.

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
You need to be more specific with scoring. Are we talking PPR leagues, must start 2 RBs, flex option? need more info and then I'll go into this. I do think he's the best option at #6 and so do a lot of others.
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I'm in a non ppr league...but I don't want this to be about my team. We can debate both sides of this. I would say in PPR he is more valuable than non-ppr.
 
footballman_696969 said:
I love AJ at 1.06... He's been so consistantly good over his carrer and finally seems to have gotten over the injury bug. The guy is uber talented and is in a great situation in Houston. He really just has a lack of question marks whereas all the other top WRs kind of scare me...

Randy Moss is now 33

Larry Fitzgerald now has Leinart throwing him the ball and no more Boldin on the other side

Reggie Wayne is now 32, has a lot of competition for targets, and his production really tailed off in the 2nd half of last year

Calvin Johnson hasn't shown he can do it 2 years in a row

Miles Austin put up great numbers last year, but can he repeat???

And I definately think you can find great value in RBs in the 2nd-4th rounds. Lets take a look at PPR ADP:

2nd round - Mendy/DWill/Charles/Matthews

3rd round - Grant/Moreno/PT/Wells

4th round - McCoy/Benson/Stewart/Addai/Best

If it was a start 2 RB and 1 flex league then I may even grab AJ and then take 3 straight RBs.
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The problem with this...is that you will end up with Kolb, Cutler or worse as your starting QB. I think this year is the year to grab a top QB (Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, Brady)....as the next tier guys have major question marks.

 
Deuce said:
footballman_696969 said:
I love AJ at 1.06... He's been so consistantly good over his carrer and finally seems to have gotten over the injury bug. The guy is uber talented and is in a great situation in Houston. He really just has a lack of question marks whereas all the other top WRs kind of scare me...

Randy Moss is now 33

Larry Fitzgerald now has Leinart throwing him the ball and no more Boldin on the other side

Reggie Wayne is now 32, has a lot of competition for targets, and his production really tailed off in the 2nd half of last year

Calvin Johnson hasn't shown he can do it 2 years in a row

Miles Austin put up great numbers last year, but can he repeat???

And I definately think you can find great value in RBs in the 2nd-4th rounds. Lets take a look at PPR ADP:

2nd round - Mendy/DWill/Charles/Matthews

3rd round - Grant/Moreno/PT/Wells

4th round - McCoy/Benson/Stewart/Addai/Best

If it was a start 2 RB and 1 flex league then I may even grab AJ and then take 3 straight RBs.
Click to expand...
The problem with this...is that you will end up with Kolb, Cutler or worse as your starting QB. I think this year is the year to grab a top QB (Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, Brady)....as the next tier guys have major question marks.
Click to expand...
I'm comfortable with taking 2-3 of Manning, Flacco, Ryan, McNabb, Palmer, Garrard, Henne, Roethlisburger, Young and Stafford and either playing match ups or hoping that one breaks out into the top 5-10 and can become a weekly starter.
 
He went 1.3 in a draft i am in. Granted it is a 1-2-2 flex set up. Even in 2 rb leagues, I would strongly consider him at 1.5

 
How about him at #5 in dynasty over Rodgers or Fitz...how long do you all think he stays elite for?

 
I would take AJ at 6 overall. At my current projection of 105/1500/11, he will score about 40 pts more than my #2WR on my list, Randy Moss. Assuming Gore went 1.5, who are your alternatives? Jackson? Great RB, plays in a crappy offense and gets nicked up often. Turner? Doesn't catch passes. Mendenhall? Playing first 4 games without Big Ben. DAngelo? Going to split time with Stewart. Take a QB? I wouldn't take a QB at 1.6 if I can get AJ.

AJ is going to give you elite stats. Why take a good but not great RB when you have the undisputed #1WR? RB pool after the big 4 is pretty deep.....you can find solid ones in rounds 2-5. Grab AJ and look to get guys like Shonn Greene, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, and Joseph Addai. If you can get two of these guys to pair up with AJ, you're in good shape.

 
He's the only WR without major warts, he seems like he may be head and shoulders above the guys in the next tier, and I don't buy into the idea that you have to take a back the next round at all. You can lock up three of the top 12 receivers with your first three picks and then just scoop RBs from there. RB is really deep with all the RBBCs and it's even deeper when you consider how much people are reaching for WRs now after the trend towards RB-RB died a quick death.

 
After the "Big 4 + Gore", AJ is the next best pick. Sure, you could go for a QB or take SJax (I'd actually take SJax), but it's not like AJ at 6 is ridiculous. He's by far the safest WR available.

 
I'd rather take MJD, Gore, Rice or Turner in the 1st, then a top 3-6 WR in the 2nd.

 
Crippler said:
IN PPR, I took Andre at the 4 spot over both Rice and Drew-Jones. I want a player I can rely on. I love Addai in late round 4-early round 5 as one of my RB's instead of taking some of the WR's left at that point instead. I could take Andre at 1.3 in a PPR league and be happy about it. Now non PPR is a different story
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:rant: Just took him at 1.3 over AD and MJD two days ago.
 
I don't think Johnson is a bad pick at 1.06 but personally I'd probably rather draft a RB there and grab Moss in round 2. Hell, I may even just grab Johnson and Moss with my 1st 2 picks now that I think about it.

 
bostonfred said:
He's the only WR without major warts, he seems like he may be head and shoulders above the guys in the next tier, and I don't buy into the idea that you have to take a back the next round at all. You can lock up three of the top 12 receivers with your first three picks and then just scoop RBs from there. RB is really deep with all the RBBCs and it's even deeper when you consider how much people are reaching for WRs now after the trend towards RB-RB died a quick death.
Click to expand...
This is my strategy after doing numerous mocks. Of course anything can happen but thus far it hasn't.....By the time other owners start to notice/react to the WR's getting thinned out and start to chase the WR run, I'll already be transitioning to gobble up RB2/RB3 types for rounds 4-7. Henne, Palmer, et al will be fine fill-ins at QB to go with a WR core of A.J., Moss, Fitz, types....should be a fun team to field each week.
 
footballman_696969 said:
I love AJ at 1.06... He's been so consistantly good over his carrer and finally seems to have gotten over the injury bug. The guy is uber talented and is in a great situation in Houston. He really just has a lack of question marks whereas all the other top WRs kind of scare me...

Randy Moss is now 33

Larry Fitzgerald now has Leinart throwing him the ball and no more Boldin on the other side

Reggie Wayne is now 32, has a lot of competition for targets, and his production really tailed off in the 2nd half of last year

Calvin Johnson hasn't shown he can do it 2 years in a row

Miles Austin put up great numbers last year, but can he repeat???

And I definately think you can find great value in RBs in the 2nd-4th rounds. Lets take a look at PPR ADP:

2nd round - Mendy/DWill/Charles/Matthews

3rd round - Grant/Moreno/PT/Wells

4th round - McCoy/Benson/Stewart/Addai/Best

If it was a start 2 RB and 1 flex league then I may even grab AJ and then take 3 straight RBs.
Click to expand...
Amazing to see 13 backs here and no mention of Shonn Green. Is he being that overlooked?
 
Team Legacy said:
footballman_696969 said:
I love AJ at 1.06... He's been so consistantly good over his carrer and finally seems to have gotten over the injury bug. The guy is uber talented and is in a great situation in Houston. He really just has a lack of question marks whereas all the other top WRs kind of scare me...

Randy Moss is now 33

Larry Fitzgerald now has Leinart throwing him the ball and no more Boldin on the other side

Reggie Wayne is now 32, has a lot of competition for targets, and his production really tailed off in the 2nd half of last year

Calvin Johnson hasn't shown he can do it 2 years in a row

Miles Austin put up great numbers last year, but can he repeat???

And I definately think you can find great value in RBs in the 2nd-4th rounds. Lets take a look at PPR ADP:

2nd round - Mendy/DWill/Charles/Matthews

3rd round - Grant/Moreno/PT/Wells

4th round - McCoy/Benson/Stewart/Addai/Best

If it was a start 2 RB and 1 flex league then I may even grab AJ and then take 3 straight RBs.
Click to expand...
Amazing to see 13 backs here and no mention of Shonn Green. Is he being that overlooked?
Click to expand...
Although I'm not a huge fan of Greene in PPR, it was an accident on my part not including him... I just added him to my original post.
 
In the league I play in that I'm actually considering AJ at #6...my fear is not being able to get an elite QB....which I planned on taking in the 3rd round. This league awards 6 points for QB pass Tds... and no team has won a championship in the past 4 years without having a top 6 QB. I normally wait on a QB...only have taken a QB in first 4 rounds 1 time....and guess what happened that year. :rolleyes:

 
I agree. I don't really understand why Andre would be #6 overall.

AD

CJ4.24

MJD

Rice

Gore

SJax

possibly Turner

DWill

Then I consider other positions. Assuming we're talking redraft here.

 
Andre Johnson is a the clear choice for me at #5 in PPR. In non PPR I am leaning towards Michael Turner however. Taking Andre over MJD is pretty insane. MJD will have more total yards and more TD's for sure NO?

 
Sultans said:
Andre Johnson is a the clear choice for me at #5 in PPR. In non PPR I am leaning towards Michael Turner however. Taking Andre over MJD is pretty insane. MJD will have more total yards and more TD's for sure NO?
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Probably but the 50 more receptions gives AJ a 9 point edge, according to my rankings(1pt WR rec, .5 for RB's). The reason i took AJ over MJD besides the 9 point advantage is the league has an option for 1 RB/4 WR in the lineup requirements. It wasnt an easy choice, but i was determined to go WR heavy after going over the league requirements.
 
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I'll take Andre at 6 in any format.

I'm not super in love with the idea, but I really don't like the other options.

I think the difference between Andre and the WR I'll get in Rd 3 or 4 is greater than Mendy/Turner and the RB in Rd 3 or 4.

 
Team Legacy said:
footballman_696969 said:
I love AJ at 1.06... He's been so consistantly good over his carrer and finally seems to have gotten over the injury bug. The guy is uber talented and is in a great situation in Houston. He really just has a lack of question marks whereas all the other top WRs kind of scare me...

Randy Moss is now 33

Larry Fitzgerald now has Leinart throwing him the ball and no more Boldin on the other side

Reggie Wayne is now 32, has a lot of competition for targets, and his production really tailed off in the 2nd half of last year

Calvin Johnson hasn't shown he can do it 2 years in a row

Miles Austin put up great numbers last year, but can he repeat???

And I definately think you can find great value in RBs in the 2nd-4th rounds. Lets take a look at PPR ADP:

2nd round - Mendy/DWill/Charles/Matthews

3rd round - Grant/Moreno/PT/Wells

4th round - McCoy/Benson/Stewart/Addai/Best

If it was a start 2 RB and 1 flex league then I may even grab AJ and then take 3 straight RBs.
Click to expand...
Amazing to see 13 backs here and no mention of Shonn Green. Is he being that overlooked?
Click to expand...
:football: :shrug: :lmao: it's all about the J-E-T-S

 
The way I look at it and I have done the research is this. ONly about 40% of the preseason ranked top 10 rbs finish in the top ten. Why not pick a wr that is a solid lock to produce?

 
After the ADP, CJ, Gore, Rice, MJD tier, there's a huge dropoff in talent IMO. I'd be more than happy to take Andre at 1.6 and nab Matthews, Williams or Charles as my RB1 in round two.

 
Deuce said:
Current ADP has Andre Johnson at #6 overall. I love the guy, as he is very consistent, plays on a great offense, and isn't totally made of glass. However, I have a hard time taking a WR at #6 overall. Maybe it's just my old school, traditional thinking. I haven't taken the time to break down the ADP data like I usually do at this point, but at first glance it looks like you're going to be picking from guys like Pierre Thomas, Mathews, Charles or Grant (depending on how you rank them) for your RB1 in round 2.... and guys like Moreno, McCoy or Wells for your RB 2 in Rd3.

I would like this thread to discuss the risks/rewards of drafting a WR that early and taking a lesser RB in round 2 and 3.

Early thoughts

- it's not the RB1 that bothers me in Rd 2 as much as the guy I'd be left with as my RB2 in round 3 or 4....Wells, Moreno, Benson, McCoy.

- WRs seem to be flying off the board in Rd 2, but guys like Jennings, White, Rice, Marshall and D Jackson are frequently available.

- You seemed forced into taking a RB in RD2 and RD 3 if you go WR in RD 1. Whereas if you go RB Rd 1 you can go WR, RB and then pick up a top tier QB in Rd 4 (Romo or Schaub, perhaps).

Just an early look at it...trying to generate some thought on this. Proceed....
Click to expand...
All due respect DW, I think the bolded part hits at the problem. You don't really have an issue with taking Andre Johnson at 6, you have an issue taking a wide receiver at 6. And yes, unless you have a traditional scoring system and a lineup that favors workhorse RBs, I ABSOLUTELY think that's old school thinking. Gone are the days where you can win a competitive league simply grabbing RB/RB as a rule. You really have to think through who offers the most relative value left on the board, and grab them.

 
SoopaCee said:
simple philosophywould you rather have the #1 wr.....or the #6 rb?
Click to expand...
I look at it slightly differently but similarly; would you rather have a virtual lock to be a top 3 WR or a RB who might be top 5 or out of the top 10 or even 20? If at 6 and this is a 2R/3W league, I'll be much happier walking away from the first 3 rounds with AJ, DWill, Pierre Thomas than Turner, DJax, Pierre or Turner, DWill, Steve Smith.
 
it is so league dependant. AJ in PPR is such a tough player to pass on. But if you take WR in 1 you need to build depth at rb. The thing is there are so many rb's to be had in early to middle rounds.

 
GOroute said:
it is so league dependant. AJ in PPR is such a tough player to pass on. But if you take WR in 1 you need to build depth at rb. The thing is there are so many rb's to be had in early to middle rounds.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: More than any other year, this year seem to be the one to just grab studs, no matter what the position. After the top 5 RBs are gone, look towards the top 3 WR. After they're gone, look towards the next tier of 5 or 6 RBs. When they're gone, open the floodgates for WR and stud QBs.
 
Instinctive said:
I agree. I don't really understand why Andre would be #6 overall. ADCJ4.24MJDRiceGoreSJaxpossibly TurnerDWillThen I consider other positions. Assuming we're talking redraft here.
Click to expand...
I think Andre is a much safer bet than your bottom 3 guys here, especially ppr leagues
 
Hell I'm thinking of taking Fitz at 1.5. Its possible in my (PPR) league b/c of keepers that ADP, CJ3, AJ, MJD, Gore, and Rice will all be gone by then.

 
mozzy84 said:
Instinctive said:
I agree. I don't really understand why Andre would be #6 overall. ADCJ4.24MJDRiceGoreSJaxpossibly TurnerDWillThen I consider other positions. Assuming we're talking redraft here.
Click to expand...
I think Andre is a much safer bet than your bottom 3 guys here, especially ppr leagues
Click to expand...
Steven Jackson is the only guy to finish as a RB1 for each of the past 6 (maybe 5...one year before MJD) years. And that's even when he misses games. And has one of the lowest scoring offenses in history. I don't think it gets much safer than Steven Jackson.
 
I had my eyes on Turner at 1.06 over AJ before this thread. But I may reconsider. Great thread so far...appreciate the input. I just have a hard time passing on a guy (Turner) who if healthy will be a LOCK for 12-16 TDs on the ground and 1400-1700 rushing. He had 10 Tds in only 11 games last year. I realize he doesn't catch the ball, but that's fine with me if he is scoring almost 1 td per game and averaging nearly 100 yds rushing per game.

I don't think you can go wrong with either Turner or AJ, IMO. They are both centerpieces of solid offenses and will get theirs.

You realize Turner scored 276 points in 2008? That's more than MJD and Ray Rice scored last year...and almost 30 points more than Adrian Peterson scored in 16 games that same year. Thus, he outscored 3/4 top 4 picks the last time he played 16 games. He would be awfully hard to pass up at #6.

 
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FUBAR said:
SoopaCee said:
simple philosophywould you rather have the #1 wr.....or the #6 rb?
Click to expand...
I look at it slightly differently but similarly; would you rather have a virtual lock to be a top 3 WR or a RB who might be top 5 or out of the top 10 or even 20? If at 6 and this is a 2R/3W league, I'll be much happier walking away from the first 3 rounds with AJ, DWill, Pierre Thomas than Turner, DJax, Pierre or Turner, DWill, Steve Smith.
Click to expand...
and, if you use FBG Projections for these 3 scenarios, the numbers hold up as well.Not to give away any subscriber content, but the total points projected for the above 3 scenarios are:AJ, DWill, Pierre Thomas = 557Turner, DJax, Pierre Thomas = 536Turner, DWill, Steve Smith = 520 (took avg of the smith WR since I didn't know which one you meant but Dodd's projection is just 10 points apart for the 2 so I thought that's close enough)Of course, if you don't agree with Dodd's projections, that's another story, but IMO his guess is as good as anyone's.
 
joey said:
FUBAR said:
SoopaCee said:
simple philosophywould you rather have the #1 wr.....or the #6 rb?
Click to expand...
I look at it slightly differently but similarly; would you rather have a virtual lock to be a top 3 WR or a RB who might be top 5 or out of the top 10 or even 20? If at 6 and this is a 2R/3W league, I'll be much happier walking away from the first 3 rounds with AJ, DWill, Pierre Thomas than Turner, DJax, Pierre or Turner, DWill, Steve Smith.
Click to expand...
and, if you use FBG Projections for these 3 scenarios, the numbers hold up as well.Not to give away any subscriber content, but the total points projected for the above 3 scenarios are:AJ, DWill, Pierre Thomas = 557Turner, DJax, Pierre Thomas = 536Turner, DWill, Steve Smith = 520 (took avg of the smith WR since I didn't know which one you meant but Dodd's projection is just 10 points apart for the 2 so I thought that's close enough)Of course, if you don't agree with Dodd's projections, that's another story, but IMO his guess is as good as anyone's.
Click to expand...
The whole key, imo, is being able to get DWill in the 2nd. If you knew he would be gone, then taking AJ in the 1st would not be as attractive to me. I am not going by projections just that I see DWill as the last of the RB1s I would want
 
CB31 said:
After the "Big 4 + Gore", AJ is the next best pick. Sure, you could go for a QB or take SJax (I'd actually take SJax), but it's not like AJ at 6 is ridiculous. He's by far the safest WR available.
Click to expand...
In a PPR league I'd take AJ at 6 and Turner 7, in a Non PPR league I'd personally take Turner 6 (actually 5, then Gore 6) and AJ 7th but I'm surprised at the thread title. AJ is by far the top WR and after 5 or 6 backs, there's a dropoff. Many of us are in multiple leagues but the main one I'm in I have the No. 7 pick and Johnson is certainly on my radar although I'm really hoping Turner drops to me (non ppr).
 
I took AJ at 1.05 last year and I would be more than happy to draft him there again. Can we delete this thread now so that we don't sway anymore people to draft AJ before me?

 
Jeff Tefertiller said:
joey said:
FUBAR said:
SoopaCee said:
simple philosophywould you rather have the #1 wr.....or the #6 rb?
Click to expand...
I look at it slightly differently but similarly; would you rather have a virtual lock to be a top 3 WR or a RB who might be top 5 or out of the top 10 or even 20? If at 6 and this is a 2R/3W league, I'll be much happier walking away from the first 3 rounds with AJ, DWill, Pierre Thomas than Turner, DJax, Pierre or Turner, DWill, Steve Smith.
Click to expand...
and, if you use FBG Projections for these 3 scenarios, the numbers hold up as well.Not to give away any subscriber content, but the total points projected for the above 3 scenarios are:AJ, DWill, Pierre Thomas = 557Turner, DJax, Pierre Thomas = 536Turner, DWill, Steve Smith = 520 (took avg of the smith WR since I didn't know which one you meant but Dodd's projection is just 10 points apart for the 2 so I thought that's close enough)Of course, if you don't agree with Dodd's projections, that's another story, but IMO his guess is as good as anyone's.
Click to expand...
The whole key, imo, is being able to get DWill in the 2nd. If you knew he would be gone, then taking AJ in the 1st would not be as attractive to me. I am not going by projections just that I see DWill as the last of the RB1s I would want
Click to expand...
Depends on your league size and scoring, of course, but I play in a 14 team non ppr league....DWill has an ADP of 2.04 according to fantasyfootballcalculator. I would expect Grant or Mathews, 2.10and 2..08 respectively to be the guys you are looking at in the 2nd.Turner and Jennings/White sounds better than AJ and Grant/Mathews to me... It's VERY CLOSE. The 3rd and 4th round picks will likely look the same.....3rd round: Pierre Thomas, Moreno, Wells or S. Smith (either one), Ocho, or Nicks/Crabtree. In the 4th round the WRs really drop off and the same for the RBs....so that looks like a good place to take a QB or TE. I like Turner, Jennings, Thomas, Nicks for the 1st 4 rounds. But wouldn't be unhappy at all with AJ, Grant, Thomas, Nicks
 
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