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auction strategy (1 Viewer)

D

degenerate

Footballguy
i'm realizing that in regards to an auction ppr 10 man leauge, that getting cj should be the move to make ala LT in his prime. you just gotta have him to win most of the time. anyone out there got any auction ideas for this year? im thinking about enjoying the fruits of cj and then just getting wr's since in ppr, qb's shouldnt be that important and cj is worth like 2 rb's. thoughts?

start: qb, rb, rb, rb/wr, wr, wr, te, k, d

 
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and why not? who can you say will outproduce him this year? i know the chances are slim of even coming close to a repeat performance but i think he's in LT territory as far as being in a class by himself

 
degenerate said:
i'm realizing that in regards to an auction ppr 10 man leauge, that getting cj should be the move to make ala LT in his prime. you just gotta have him to win most of the time. anyone out there got any auction ideas for this year? im thinking about enjoying the fruits of cj and then just getting wr's since in ppr, qb's shouldnt be that important and cj is worth like 2 rb's. thoughts?start: qb, rb, rb, rb/wr, wr, wr, te, k, d
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I have an auction league later this month 300 dollars and I would bet he goes for atleast 135 or 140. Im not willing to pay that.
 
yeah i obv wouldnt go crazy. usually our most expensive is around 70 in a 200 cap. theres just no one else on that team that will score td's except for maybe young rushing

 
bostonfred said:
Don't waste your money. Chris Johnson is not going to put up numbers like that again this year.
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Don't be so sure my friend. Fishers interview on ESPN radio last week said we will not scale him back and there is no reason too. The guy has rare ability and did not take a clean hit last yr and knows how to get out of bounds when he has to. They are going to try and get as much as they can out of this thoroughbred...and why wouldn't they...they have no other options!
 
Anyone know of where you can find posted Mock/Real Auction results?

MFL has some but most are dynasty w/25 to 40 man rosters.

Looking for normal 12 team mock auction results, maybe even an expect draft.

-------------

More on topic, I think CJohnson is worth about 35% of budget but I wouldn't pay more than a 3% premium over AP or MJD.

 
I think CJ will fall short of last years FF point totals because I don 't expect him to break so many 50 yard screen passes for TDs this year. I think he will still be very productive as a runner and will score plenty of more traditional touchdowns but that many long TD plays don't seem viable to repeat IMHO. In that regard I don't believe CJ is the runaway best option at RB.

 
Regardless of the player, you can't do this.

There is no set strategy for auction.. you have to play off others, recognize trends, and adapt.

If you walk in saying " IM GOING TO GET THIS ONE SINGLE PLAYER ", and someone else goes for the same guy.. you overpay and screw yourself.

Set values for yourself, select a RANGE of players you want in those values.

The worst thing I see people do is insist upon one single player and overpay.. by a lot.

 
Balance said:
Regardless of the player, you can't do this.

There is no set strategy for auction.. you have to play off others, recognize trends, and adapt.

If you walk in saying " IM GOING TO GET THIS ONE SINGLE PLAYER ", and someone else goes for the same guy.. you overpay and screw yourself.

Set values for yourself, select a RANGE of players you want in those values.

The worst thing I see people do is insist upon one single player and overpay.. by a lot.
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:thumbup: The key in an auction is to get value throughout.That said, I pretty much did the "get CJ and fill in the rest" plan in our recent dynasty auction. 10 teams, 2QB plus 10 others on offense. My team Wasn't really the plan, just worked out that way - I did want CJ, but wasn't paying more than $90.

CJ cost $88.25 out of $500 (18%) but the bigger lineups and 2 QB probably brought his price down relative to other leagues. He went for around $5-8 more than Rodgers, Rice, MJD, and AD.

 
tim_whatley said:
I think CJ will fall short of last years FF point totals because I don 't expect him to break so many 50 yard screen passes for TDs this year. I think he will still be very productive as a runner and will score plenty of more traditional touchdowns but that many long TD plays don't seem viable to repeat IMHO. In that regard I don't believe CJ is the runaway best option at RB.
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I realize I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I can easily see more than 16 TDs this year. Maybe not long runs, although there's no real reason to think he can't except "regression to the mean", whatever that means for the most explosive, talented player in the NFL.
 
FUBAR said:
tim_whatley said:
I think CJ will fall short of last years FF point totals because I don 't expect him to break so many 50 yard screen passes for TDs this year. I think he will still be very productive as a runner and will score plenty of more traditional touchdowns but that many long TD plays don't seem viable to repeat IMHO. In that regard I don't believe CJ is the runaway best option at RB.
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I realize I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I can easily see more than 16 TDs this year. Maybe not long runs, although there's no real reason to think he can't except "regression to the mean", whatever that means for the most explosive, talented player in the NFL.
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this is where i'm coming from. i've always been more of a 'regression to the mean' type of guy, but right now is cj not the most talented/explosive player in fantasy right now? there's just no one on that team to steal any of his stats, and theyre gonna give him every chance to get them.
 
degenerate said:
FUBAR said:
tim_whatley said:
I think CJ will fall short of last years FF point totals because I don 't expect him to break so many 50 yard screen passes for TDs this year. I think he will still be very productive as a runner and will score plenty of more traditional touchdowns but that many long TD plays don't seem viable to repeat IMHO. In that regard I don't believe CJ is the runaway best option at RB.
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I realize I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I can easily see more than 16 TDs this year. Maybe not long runs, although there's no real reason to think he can't except "regression to the mean", whatever that means for the most explosive, talented player in the NFL.
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this is where i'm coming from. i've always been more of a 'regression to the mean' type of guy, but right now is cj not the most talented/explosive player in fantasy right now? there's just no one on that team to steal any of his stats, and theyre gonna give him every chance to get them.
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Of course, the counter argument if you buy the "nobody else on the team to take his stats" line is there's nobody else to take the D's attention. I don't buy either. First, assuming VY continues where he was last year, he takes some stats but also warrants attention from the D. Britt has had some problems but will do just fine I think. Scaife/Cook will also get theirs. That offense is better all around than people give credit. The only concern I have as a Titans fan is what would happen if CJ tweaks a knee or some other minor injury where most coaches would give their stud time to heal for a quarter or two? I don't trust Ringer or the others, and I don't know Fisher would either. So he probably plays through it - which could be disastrous. Not too many top offenses have only one RB, regardless of who that RB is.ETA: I just realized you very well could mean other RBs, which obviously I agree with. Just not sure that's a good thing even for CJ.
 
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gebz306 said:
bostonfred said:
Don't waste your money. Chris Johnson is not going to put up numbers like that again this year.
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<1>Don't be so sure my friend. Fishers interview on ESPN radio last week said we will not scale him back and there is no reason too. <2>The guy has rare ability and did not take a clean hit last yr and knows how to get out of bounds when he has to. They are going to try and get as much as they can out of this thoroughbred...<3>and why wouldn't they...they have no other options!
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1) He doesn't have to scale him back, but just returning him to a "normal" number of carries will cause a reduction in his stats, and subsequently, his FF points.He had 358 carries last year, which is a lot in and of itself. But when you look at his games (when the 2000 yards and YFS record were conceivably within reach AND the Titans were virtually eliminated from playoff contention), the Titans had no reason to be concerned with offensive balance and made an obvious effort to get him as many touches as possible.

In those 8 weeks, he had 243 touches (214 carries & 29 receptions) for 1388 yards and 9 TDs.

In the 1st 8 weeks, he had only 165 touches (144 carries & 21 receptions) for 1121 yards and 5 TDs.

The pace he had for the 1st 1/2 of the season, BEFORE the Titans (in essence) gave up on their 2009 campaign would have given him:

288 carries, 42 catches, over 2200 YFS, and 10 TDs. Numbers like this are MUCH more likely than his 2009 2nd half, which would have put him on pace for almost 500 touches !! No coach is going to work their RB like that.

2) What are you talking about? He had over 400 touches last year, not counting blocks he threw. You actually believe he didn't take a clean hit in 2009? I don't care if he does know how to "get out of bounds," he took plenty of hits, and even with his workload reduced to about 325 touches, he's going to take a lot of clean hits. LT had rare ability and he got hit, Sanders had rare ability and he got hit, Payton had rare ability and he got hit. ALL NFL RBS get hit, it's the nature of the position.

3) Why wouldn't they? Because the NFL isn't about FF, and it isn't about personal stats. It's about winning games and championships. The Titans will not be able to win many games if they do nothing but feed Johnson. Any team that is that one-dimensional will be unable to have sustained success. For the Titans to get better, as a team, they need "other options" to provide some offense, so the defense can't key on Johnson.

 
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degenerate said:
this is where i'm coming from. i've always been more of a 'regression to the mean' type of guy, but right now is cj not the most talented/explosive player in fantasy right now? there's just no one on that team to steal any of his stats, and theyre gonna give him every chance to get them.
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Many people would agree that Johnson is the most talented and explosive player in the NFL, but that doesn't mean he's going to be able to do the same things in 2010 as he accomplished in 2009.Just because a player is incredibly talented and the best (sometimes the only) offensive threat on a team doesn't mean he can repeat incredible numbers.

Think about it. Last year, Johnson scored 16 TDs. 10 of those TDs were from over 20 yards! 7 of those ten were from beyond 50 yards! Long TDs like these are extremely unpredictable and unreliable, and hard to accomplish.

In the last 8 years, only 3 RBs have scored more than 3 times from 50+ yards: Johnson in 2009, Peterson in 2007 (4 TDs), and Tomlinson in 2003 (5 TDs). Those are some pretty talented, explosive RBs in their own right, yet they couldn't duplicate their long TD numbers the next year (Peterson-2 in 2008, Tomlinson-1 in 2004). Did they suddenly get less talented or explosive? No, but the long TDs didn't occur like they had the previous season.

Furthermore, Johnson might very well be the most explosive player in football, and there might not be any real threats to steal his stats, but how many years could the same have been said about Barry Sanders?

Barry Sanders had a 10 year NFL career. In that career he had ONE SEASON with more than 2 50+yard TDs. That season was 1997, which closely matches Chris Johnson's career year in 2009.

Sanders, 1997:

368 touches, 2358 YFS, 6.1 YPC, 14 total TDs, 5 TDs of 50+yards

Johnson, 2009:

408 touches, 2509 YFS, 5.6 YPC, 16 total TDs, 7 TDs of 50+yards

These seasons, statistically speaking, were very similar, and Barry Sanders was every bit as explosive a player as Chris Johnson is, so let's examine his next season.

In Sanders' next year (1998), he still totaled almost 1800 YFS, but he only had 2 TDs of 50+yards (4 total TDs). In fact, other than 1997, Sanders NEVER had more than 2 50+yard TDs in a single season (he did score 2 in a season 4 times, though).

Chris Johnson figures to get less touches (see my previous post), and he figures to score fewer TDs. So, for those reasons, you should expect him to put up fewer FF points. He's going to be expensive in an auction. You can pay for him, if you want, but you'd probably be better off using the money elsewhere.

 
gebz306 said:
bostonfred said:
Don't waste your money. Chris Johnson is not going to put up numbers like that again this year.
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Don't be so sure my friend. Fishers interview on ESPN radio last week said we will not scale him back and there is no reason too. The guy has rare ability and did not take a clean hit last yr and knows how to get out of bounds when he has to. They are going to try and get as much as they can out of this thoroughbred...and why wouldn't they...they have no other options!
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Thanks for posting this. He had over 400 touches last year and I don't see the Titans play often. I was wondering how he'd hold up after a season like that. But, of course, if he doesn't take the shots like Turner did two years ago it wouldn't be much of a concern imo.
 
I agree with the idea of getting Johnson. Even if he had 65 less pts in a PPR league, he would still be the highest non-QB. So take away 11 TD's and he is still the best. By the way look-up "Addicts auction" on MFL and you will find some completed auctions. PPR, start 1- QB, 2-Rb, 3-Wr, 1- flex, Te, K, def. $400 to start. 20 man rosters.

 
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Bayhawks said:
degenerate said:
this is where i'm coming from. i've always been more of a 'regression to the mean' type of guy, but right now is cj not the most talented/explosive player in fantasy right now? there's just no one on that team to steal any of his stats, and theyre gonna give him every chance to get them.
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Many people would agree that Johnson is the most talented and explosive player in the NFL, but that doesn't mean he's going to be able to do the same things in 2010 as he accomplished in 2009.Just because a player is incredibly talented and the best (sometimes the only) offensive threat on a team doesn't mean he can repeat incredible numbers.

Think about it. Last year, Johnson scored 16 TDs. 10 of those TDs were from over 20 yards! 7 of those ten were from beyond 50 yards! Long TDs like these are extremely unpredictable and unreliable, and hard to accomplish.

In the last 8 years, only 3 RBs have scored more than 3 times from 50+ yards: Johnson in 2009, Peterson in 2007 (4 TDs), and Tomlinson in 2003 (5 TDs). Those are some pretty talented, explosive RBs in their own right, yet they couldn't duplicate their long TD numbers the next year (Peterson-2 in 2008, Tomlinson-1 in 2004). Did they suddenly get less talented or explosive? No, but the long TDs didn't occur like they had the previous season.

Furthermore, Johnson might very well be the most explosive player in football, and there might not be any real threats to steal his stats, but how many years could the same have been said about Barry Sanders?

Barry Sanders had a 10 year NFL career. In that career he had ONE SEASON with more than 2 50+yard TDs. That season was 1997, which closely matches Chris Johnson's career year in 2009.

Sanders, 1997:

368 touches, 2358 YFS, 6.1 YPC, 14 total TDs, 5 TDs of 50+yards

Johnson, 2009:

408 touches, 2509 YFS, 5.6 YPC, 16 total TDs, 7 TDs of 50+yards

These seasons, statistically speaking, were very similar, and Barry Sanders was every bit as explosive a player as Chris Johnson is, so let's examine his next season.

In Sanders' next year (1998), he still totaled almost 1800 YFS, but he only had 2 TDs of 50+yards (4 total TDs). In fact, other than 1997, Sanders NEVER had more than 2 50+yard TDs in a single season (he did score 2 in a season 4 times, though).

Chris Johnson figures to get less touches (see my previous post), and he figures to score fewer TDs. So, for those reasons, you should expect him to put up fewer FF points. He's going to be expensive in an auction. You can pay for him, if you want, but you'd probably be better off using the money elsewhere.
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The Titans want to win and Chis Johnson is the only way they will do this. He will continue to score 20+yd td's bc he does not slow down after a juke like most rb's. Their offense is a year older... I am a tad bias bc I am an ECU alum, but when I watched his tape, its like nothing ive ever ever seen before...

Ke

And Ide also like to mention that Barry Sanders speed does not compare to CJ's. Barry was shifty, but almost too shifty left to right which slowed him down. CJ is faster and attacks a defender with more subtle moves and blows by them. Bold statement, but the film doesnt lie

Barry Sanders 5-foot-7 5/8, 203 pounds and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.37

CJ 4.24

Thanks,

Come Again

P.S. Found out I got the first pick in my draft and Im ecstactic.

All love here... Yes its possible his stats take a knock bc he was going for a record. But, Vince was not the QB the first 6 games. CJ knows what to expect now more than ever. Wear and tear you ask? At his press conference after he went over 2000yds last yr he was asked if hes tired... he answered in a way that the season has little to no effect on him... Most RB's it does... One other thing was I found interesting was his 40 yd dash... watch him run and his face... he barely looks like he is putting any effort into it. Almost like a stud pitcher with a fluid motion...

Edit:

Looked up stats and did some computing.

CJ averaged just shy of 26pts per game with Vince in there....comes out to 412 fantasy points...Thats 65 MORE than his 347 last yr. It reminds me of when Tomlinson was in his prime with 26 or 28 td's that yr.

Without Vince, CJ averaged 15.... 91 pts over 6 games.

So stat monkey, how bout them apples... or bananas for you!

Go ECU Pirates!

Cheers!

 
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You mention the number of 50+ yard TDs those RBs scored, but not their total number of TDs or fantasy scoring in the following year. Peterson followed up his 50+ yard TD year with 10 TDs and another #3 RB rank (same as in 2007). Tomlinson followed up his 17 TD effort in 2003 with an 18 TD effort in 2004; sure, those TDs may not have come from 50+, but they still came.

If anything, the data suggest that RBs who score a bunch of long TDs are set up to have good follow-up seasons.

 
tim_whatley said:
I think CJ will fall short of last years FF point totals because I don 't expect him to break so many 50 yard screen passes for TDs this year. I think he will still be very productive as a runner and will score plenty of more traditional touchdowns but that many long TD plays don't seem viable to repeat IMHO. In that regard I don't believe CJ is the runaway best option at RB.
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I think this line of logic does not apply to CJ. if you've seen the way he accelerates, then you know that those long TDs aren't a result of him getting lucky with a bunch of blocks far downfield or defenses being wide open. They are the result of him finding a crease early in the run and then straightup outrunning everyone the rest of the way. and unless he got chunky over the summer, that speed's not going anywhere for another few years.
 
I've never won the services of the most expensive player at auction and the name matters little. It has more to do with how it limits my maneuverability with the rest of my roster.

 
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last year two guys had similar strategy in our Auction Dynasty Startup

"spend X amount of money on Slaton and then focus on WR..."

"spend X amount of money on M. Forte and then focus on WR..."

Both RBs were young, great looking for PPR, and Forte actually amounted for like 33% of his entire offense's production.

Just sayin...

 
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albuddah said:
tim_whatley said:
I think CJ will fall short of last years FF point totals because I don 't expect him to break so many 50 yard screen passes for TDs this year. I think he will still be very productive as a runner and will score plenty of more traditional touchdowns but that many long TD plays don't seem viable to repeat IMHO. In that regard I don't believe CJ is the runaway best option at RB.
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I think this line of logic does not apply to CJ. if you've seen the way he accelerates, then you know that those long TDs aren't a result of him getting lucky with a bunch of blocks far downfield or defenses being wide open. They are the result of him finding a crease early in the run and then straightup outrunning everyone the rest of the way. and unless he got chunky over the summer, that speed's not going anywhere for another few years.
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Well he didn't get any faster between his first year and his 2nd year, did he? He only had 2 50+ yard TDs in his rookie year, and he had 7 last year. If those long TDs were solely the result of him finding a crease early in the run and then "straightup" outrunning everyone," why didn't he score more long ones in 2008?And before you say it's because he got more carries/receptions, that's incorrect. He broke a 50+ yard TD on a rush or rec 2% of his touches last year, and only .7% in 2008.Face it, the long TDs are not reliable and you're setting yourself up for failure if you do try to rely on them.
 
I am going to make my comments more about auction and less about CJ...

I agree that you have to go with the ebb and flow of the auction and look for value. That being said, there are untimately 2 basic approaches to auction: pyramid and silo. Pyramid is what it being discussed in this thread. Get one or maybe two high priced guys and fill in with lesser players later in the auction. The silo approach says let the high priced guys go, and focus on tier 2 -3 players, spending less on individual players and getting more overall talent and depth. Neither way is right or wrong, but in my opinion, the silo approach leads to a better team that can withstand injuries or ineffective play. (If CJ goes down, what happens to your team?) It is also much more fun to draft silo in my opinion. If you spend your wad on CJ, and others have done similar, you are watching the likes of Greg Jennings go for pennies on the dollar but you can't bid on him because you don't have any money. Then the next guy comes up and the same frustration comes up. I have seen guys overpay for two or three guys early and they wind up getting so frustrated by what other guys are going for that they have to leave the room.

So, drafting CJ may sound like a winning formula, but you need to think about what you are going to be able to put around him if you do get him...

 
gebz306 said:
CJ averaged just shy of 26pts per game with Vince in there....comes out to 412 fantasy points...Thats 65 MORE than his 347 last yr.

....

Without Vince, CJ averaged 15.... 91 pts over 6 games.
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I do think CJ will put up comparable FF points to last year, and the VY factor is a part of that.But I would never go into an auction with the mentality of "paying whatever" for the top player. That will get you into trouble. If you want him, you still have to have a brick wall limit in mind and at a certain point say to the other people bidding him up "dude, if you want to pay THAT much for him, you can have him and good luck with the rest of your draft".

 
i've never implied that i was going to pay whatever it took to get CJ. i know when too much is too much. i'm just saying he should be a guy to target because i see little reason for a huge decline from last year. i do not see another rb getting more points than him, so why not try hard to get him, unless of course the cost becomes too much.

my limit is probably $70 in a 10 man, $200 cap, 18 man roster. in my experience in this league, the top guy usually goes around $70 and there have been no problems fielding a team around him, albeit a little thin. the rest of the top rb's in my league will all go in the $60's. of course it will kill your team if CJ gets hurt. same goes for brady '08, sjax '07, any injury to your top guy for that matter. and the guy that mentioned slaton and forte shouldnt be comparing them to CJ because of both talent and situation

 
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degenerate said:
i've never implied that i was going to pay whatever it took to get CJ. i know when too much is too much. i'm just saying he should be a guy to target because i see little reason for a huge decline from last year. i do not see another rb getting more points than him, so why not try hard to get him, unless of course the cost becomes too much. my limit is probably $70 in a 10 man, $200 cap, 18 man roster. in my experience in this league, the top guy usually goes around $70 and there have been no problems fielding a team around him, albeit a little thin. the rest of the top rb's in my league will all go in the $60's. of course it will kill your team if CJ gets hurt. same goes for brady '08, sjax '07, any injury to your top guy for that matter. and the guy that mentioned slaton and forte shouldnt be comparing them to CJ because of both talent and situation
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All due respect, when you title a thread, "Just pay for CJ and..." that sounds fairly definitive. The biggest problem I see with this strategy (as others have talked about) is that it limits options. You price yourself out of having flexibility for the rest of the draft. Having said that, I think blowing 75% of the wad on CJ, Andre Johnson and Kolb and scrounging the $2-$5 bin to round out your roster is a decent strategy for the beginner. If an owner is going to get eaten alive in his league by trying to out-auction the more experienced players in that league in the $6-$17 range, may as well get your money in with a few surefire locks.
 
since when does getting cj mean youll have no flexibility for the rest of the draft? rb's 2-6 will be in the $60's. getting cj means you'll miss out on like 1 or 2 $5-10 guys. i wouldnt call that painting yourself into a corner

 
FantasyTrader said:
degenerate said:
i've never implied that i was going to pay whatever it took to get CJ. i know when too much is too much. i'm just saying he should be a guy to target because i see little reason for a huge decline from last year. i do not see another rb getting more points than him, so why not try hard to get him, unless of course the cost becomes too much.

my limit is probably $70 in a 10 man, $200 cap, 18 man roster. in my experience in this league, the top guy usually goes around $70 and there have been no problems fielding a team around him, albeit a little thin. the rest of the top rb's in my league will all go in the $60's. of course it will kill your team if CJ gets hurt. same goes for brady '08, sjax '07, any injury to your top guy for that matter. and the guy that mentioned slaton and forte shouldnt be comparing them to CJ because of both talent and situation
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All due respect, when you title a thread, "Just pay for CJ and..." that sounds fairly definitive. The biggest problem I see with this strategy (as others have talked about) is that it limits options. You price yourself out of having flexibility for the rest of the draft. Having said that, I think blowing 75% of the wad on CJ, Andre Johnson and Kolb and scrounging the $2-$5 bin to round out your roster is a decent strategy for the beginner. If an owner is going to get eaten alive in his league by trying to out-auction the more experienced players in that league in the $6-$17 range, may as well get your money in with a few surefire locks.
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:goodposting: I like Kolb enough, but "surefire lock" doesn't exactly define the guy at this juncture.
 
In preparation for auctions this year, I made a chart comparing "Value Based Drafting points" (i.e., the difference between the analyzed player and the worst starting player of that position - like comparing AJ vs. 36th ranked WR) against "Available Auction Dollars for Starters on Your Roster" (i.e., subtracting bench player # from total auction $).

Basically, my analysis is that CJ is a good call if (1) you are expecting him to replicate what he did last year, or at least come near ~2400 total yards and 15 TDs, or around that area, and (2) other top-15 ranked RBs are going for $55-70. Career-yearish CJ just outpaces the other RBs to a great degree.

So CJ for $70 makes more sense VBD-wise than Ray Rice for $65 or Gore for $57. And so on. Unfortunately, CJ is often the first player nominated out of the gate so you have to commit to your VBD projections before you can see what the other RBs are going for.

ETA: But it is a good feeling when you lay down $70+ for CJ and then watch the next 8-9 RBs go for $55+.

 
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FUBAR said:
FantasyTrader said:
degenerate said:
i've never implied that i was going to pay whatever it took to get CJ. i know when too much is too much. i'm just saying he should be a guy to target because i see little reason for a huge decline from last year. i do not see another rb getting more points than him, so why not try hard to get him, unless of course the cost becomes too much.

my limit is probably $70 in a 10 man, $200 cap, 18 man roster. in my experience in this league, the top guy usually goes around $70 and there have been no problems fielding a team around him, albeit a little thin. the rest of the top rb's in my league will all go in the $60's. of course it will kill your team if CJ gets hurt. same goes for brady '08, sjax '07, any injury to your top guy for that matter. and the guy that mentioned slaton and forte shouldnt be comparing them to CJ because of both talent and situation
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All due respect, when you title a thread, "Just pay for CJ and..." that sounds fairly definitive. The biggest problem I see with this strategy (as others have talked about) is that it limits options. You price yourself out of having flexibility for the rest of the draft. Having said that, I think blowing 75% of the wad on CJ, Andre Johnson and Kolb and scrounging the $2-$5 bin to round out your roster is a decent strategy for the beginner. If an owner is going to get eaten alive in his league by trying to out-auction the more experienced players in that league in the $6-$17 range, may as well get your money in with a few surefire locks.
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:lol: I like Kolb enough, but "surefire lock" doesn't exactly define the guy at this juncture.
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You're right. I started with Peyton but then realized you'd be pushing it to roster Johnson, CJ and Peyton for 75% budget, so I changed the name and should have changed the "surefire lock" wording.
 
mdlane said:
In preparation for auctions this year, I made a chart comparing "Value Based Drafting points" (i.e., the difference between the analyzed player and the worst starting player of that position - like comparing AJ vs. 36th ranked WR) against "Available Auction Dollars for Starters on Your Roster" (i.e., subtracting bench player # from total auction $). Basically, my analysis is that CJ is a good call if (1) you are expecting him to replicate what he did last year, or at least come near ~2400 total yards and 15 TDs, or around that area, and (2) other top-15 ranked RBs are going for $55-70. Career-yearish CJ just outpaces the other RBs to a great degree.So CJ for $70 makes more sense VBD-wise than Ray Rice for $65 or Gore for $57. And so on. Unfortunately, CJ is often the first player nominated out of the gate so you have to commit to your VBD projections before you can see what the other RBs are going for.ETA: But it is a good feeling when you lay down $70+ for CJ and then watch the next 8-9 RBs go for $55+.
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thank you. this was basically my point. i do think in my league rb's 2-6 go for $55-65
 
degenerate said:
since when does getting cj mean youll have no flexibility for the rest of the draft? rb's 2-6 will be in the $60's. getting cj means you'll miss out on like 1 or 2 $5-10 guys. i wouldnt call that painting yourself into a corner
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That's making the assumption you'll be acquiring a 2-6 guy. By all means, if you'll be spending $62-$65 on AP/MDJ/Gore, then of course Johnson doesn't change your gameplan much. But what about if you roster Beanie for $$27-$30 as your RB1? Then you're $35-$43 under budget of the Chris Johnson owner on that one roster spot. Hopefully we can agree that represents significant wiggle room.
 
i suppose its personal preference. i wouldnt feel comfortable with beanie as my rb1 because with a 1-6 rb, i feel i could still pull 2 of roddy/marshall/calvin/austin. i guess with beanie you can be more balanced, but im trying to avoid rbbc as much as possible

 
FantasyTrader said:
degenerate said:
since when does getting cj mean youll have no flexibility for the rest of the draft? rb's 2-6 will be in the $60's. getting cj means you'll miss out on like 1 or 2 $5-10 guys. i wouldnt call that painting yourself into a corner
Click to expand...
That's making the assumption you'll be acquiring a 2-6 guy. By all means, if you'll be spending $62-$65 on AP/MDJ/Gore, then of course Johnson doesn't change your gameplan much. But what about if you roster Beanie for $$27-$30 as your RB1? Then you're $35-$43 under budget of the Chris Johnson owner on that one roster spot. Hopefully we can agree that represents significant wiggle room.
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The fun of an auction is that there are a lot of different ways to approach it. Personally, my strategy hinges on coming out of the auction with a sure-fire, every week starter at RB1 and WR1 (start 2RB/3WR). I don't think Beanie Wells qualifies (even before his rib injury). So yes, if you get Wells instead of a top RB, you have more wiggle room--but you also don't have a top RB. It's perfectly reasonable to try for four or five mid-level RBs instead of a top RB and some backups; that's one of the things an auction makes possible. But I don't think it's inherently a better strategy. Would you trade 1.01, 17.01 and 18.12 for 4.02, 4.03, and 4.04 (three Beanie-Wells level players?) Pick Value Calculator says you shouldn't. It depends on the relative cost of CJ and Wells.
 
CalBear said:
FantasyTrader said:
degenerate said:
since when does getting cj mean youll have no flexibility for the rest of the draft? rb's 2-6 will be in the $60's. getting cj means you'll miss out on like 1 or 2 $5-10 guys. i wouldnt call that painting yourself into a corner
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That's making the assumption you'll be acquiring a 2-6 guy. By all means, if you'll be spending $62-$65 on AP/MDJ/Gore, then of course Johnson doesn't change your gameplan much. But what about if you roster Beanie for $$27-$30 as your RB1? Then you're $35-$43 under budget of the Chris Johnson owner on that one roster spot. Hopefully we can agree that represents significant wiggle room.
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...but you also don't have a top RB.
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Last year's Ray Rice owners would disagree with you. I'd rather not get stuck on the name Beanie Wells. That wasn't my intent. I just used him to point out that going with a RB of that ilk allows me to follow the draft strategy that's worked best for me personally over the years. Which is targeting many $6-$20 players at value. I agree with with both side of the argument though. There's many roads to a championship. My strengths lie in finding undervalued commodities in that range. And if you've had success dropping a wad on the most expensive player out there then more power to both of us.
 
Bayhawks said:
gebz306 said:
bostonfred said:
Don't waste your money. Chris Johnson is not going to put up numbers like that again this year.
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<1>Don't be so sure my friend. Fishers interview on ESPN radio last week said we will not scale him back and there is no reason too. <2>The guy has rare ability and did not take a clean hit last yr and knows how to get out of bounds when he has to. They are going to try and get as much as they can out of this thoroughbred...<3>and why wouldn't they...they have no other options!
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1) He doesn't have to scale him back, but just returning him to a "normal" number of carries will cause a reduction in his stats, and subsequently, his FF points.He had 358 carries last year, which is a lot in and of itself. But when you look at his games (when the 2000 yards and YFS record were conceivably within reach AND the Titans were virtually eliminated from playoff contention), the Titans had no reason to be concerned with offensive balance and made an obvious effort to get him as many touches as possible.

In those 8 weeks, he had 243 touches (214 carries & 29 receptions) for 1388 yards and 9 TDs.

In the 1st 8 weeks, he had only 165 touches (144 carries & 21 receptions) for 1121 yards and 5 TDs.

The pace he had for the 1st 1/2 of the season, BEFORE the Titans (in essence) gave up on their 2009 campaign would have given him:

288 carries, 42 catches, over 2200 YFS, and 10 TDs. Numbers like this are MUCH more likely than his 2009 2nd half, which would have put him on pace for almost 500 touches !! No coach is going to work their RB like that.

2) What are you talking about? He had over 400 touches last year, not counting blocks he threw. You actually believe he didn't take a clean hit in 2009? I don't care if he does know how to "get out of bounds," he took plenty of hits, and even with his workload reduced to about 325 touches, he's going to take a lot of clean hits. LT had rare ability and he got hit, Sanders had rare ability and he got hit, Payton had rare ability and he got hit. ALL NFL RBS get hit, it's the nature of the position.

3) Why wouldn't they? Because the NFL isn't about FF, and it isn't about personal stats. It's about winning games and championships. The Titans will not be able to win many games if they do nothing but feed Johnson. Any team that is that one-dimensional will be unable to have sustained success. For the Titans to get better, as a team, they need "other options" to provide some offense, so the defense can't key on Johnson.
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I have to agree completely with this. The Titans started last season 0-6, and basically called it a season at that point. I'm not saying they gave up , but Fischer clearly wasn't too concerned about overloading CJ the rest of way. If he got hurt, oh well, season's over anyway, doesn't really matter.

CJ was getting 30+ carries (let alone touches) in the final few games of the season. The coaching staff was essentially giving him every opportunity to pile on the stats and break records.

If Tennessee is in the hunt this season, you have to believe Fischer will pull him out of games they're winning late to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

I just can't see him getting 350+ carries again this season.

Im predicting 275 carries, 5.5 ypc, 1512 yards rushing, 11 rushing TDs, plus another 40 receptions for 400 yards and 3 TDs.

Still, pretty excellent numbers for a #1 RB.

 
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FantasyTrader said:
degenerate said:
since when does getting cj mean youll have no flexibility for the rest of the draft? rb's 2-6 will be in the $60's. getting cj means you'll miss out on like 1 or 2 $5-10 guys. i wouldnt call that painting yourself into a corner
Click to expand...
That's making the assumption you'll be acquiring a 2-6 guy. By all means, if you'll be spending $62-$65 on AP/MDJ/Gore, then of course Johnson doesn't change your gameplan much. But what about if you roster Beanie for $$27-$30 as your RB1? Then you're $35-$43 under budget of the Chris Johnson owner on that one roster spot. Hopefully we can agree that represents significant wiggle room.
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If you think you can get Beanie that low, that's a possibility (although I think he's worth closer to 22, VBD-wise). However, I'm not sure if you've mocked/auctioned yet, but Beanie is going for MUCH more than that. RBs in his range are selling for AT LEAST $35. Waiting on Beanie and praying you get him substantially lower than CJ is a calculated risk. If you're picking first, I'd advise putting up Beanie right away with your strategy - before RB prices become too inflated.
 
degenerate said:
i suppose its personal preference. i wouldnt feel comfortable with beanie as my rb1 because with a 1-6 rb, i feel i could still pull 2 of roddy/marshall/calvin/austin. i guess with beanie you can be more balanced, but im trying to avoid rbbc as much as possible
Click to expand...
I didn't say draft Beanie. I wouldn't touch him in this format until late and there was value. I am talking about paying less for a RB and stacking more depth. My example: I pushed up owners on AP, and the other top guys last year, and I paid much less for Frank Gore. I then had an extra $15-20 bucks to put into my other RBs and WRs that allowed me more talent at those positions. It even helps later when the difference between a $5 player and a $1 player exists. When Gore went down later, I didn't scramble or lose many games, because of the depth I had. I still had a top flight RB, just one that cost me a little less and allowed me to put more around him. You can't go bargain basement like Beanie as your #1, but you can look for 2 solid tier 2 rbs that would together cost you less than CJ and a tier 3, RBBC guy...and it can make you better in the long run.Just my thoughts/2 cents.
 
Balance said:
Regardless of the player, you can't do this.There is no set strategy for auction.. you have to play off others, recognize trends, and adapt.If you walk in saying " IM GOING TO GET THIS ONE SINGLE PLAYER ", and someone else goes for the same guy.. you overpay and screw yourself.Set values for yourself, select a RANGE of players you want in those values.The worst thing I see people do is insist upon one single player and overpay.. by a lot.
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Disagree. You can always revert to value.I think it's perfectly solid strategy to key on a player as long as you make sure he's nominated early so your plan B is not limited. Used to do this all the time when Faulk and LT were clearcut above the rest. If I got my target, great. If I missed, I had another target or went to balance. Problem is if you don't find where you are with the key premium players early, you end up paying too much for a 2nd tier player or left with cap at the end.That said, I'm not targeting CJ. I'm looking at the 3 rookie RBs as good value in PPR. Will probably pay 100% of my value for one of the top 2 WR PPR monsters early. QB is my flex spending outlet (important concept) where I'm comfortable spending anywhere along the spectrum because our league tends to properly value this position.
 
League 4 thread has all players, dollars, and rosters posted.

If I were to do an auction, I woul dlook over thiose teams and see what I liked the best and follow that. Not nessarraly what player at what cost, but top tier RB vs 2 2nd tier rbs, etc. and see what $$$ those tiered players went for.

 
Here's my take on the long touchdown question.

The following is a list of all RBs who have 6 or more 50+ yard rushing TDs since 1970:

Tiki Barber (6)

Terrell Davis (6)

Tony Dorsett (6)

Warrick Dunn (6)

Ahman Green (7)

Chris Johnson (7)

Maurice Jones-Drew (6)

Napoleon Kaufman (6)

Adrian Peterson (6)

Barry Sanders (15!)

OJ Simpson (8)

Emmitt Smith (6)

Robert Smith (8)

Fred Taylor (8)

Ladanian Tomlinson (6)

What does this list say? It say that if you score that many long TDs, you are virtually guaranteed of being a productive RB for a long time. Every one of these players is a multi-Pro-Bowl guy. Most are All-Pros. Five are first-ballot Hall of Famers (if you include Tomlinson).

So it's pretty tortured logic to count Johnson's long TDs against him as proof that he won't be as productive this year. It's really the opposite; it suggests that he is a rare talent who is likely to continue to be productive.

 
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Balance said:
Regardless of the player, you can't do this.There is no set strategy for auction.. you have to play off others, recognize trends, and adapt.If you walk in saying " IM GOING TO GET THIS ONE SINGLE PLAYER ", and someone else goes for the same guy.. you overpay and screw yourself.Set values for yourself, select a RANGE of players you want in those values.The worst thing I see people do is insist upon one single player and overpay.. by a lot.
Click to expand...
I've used this strategy for the last couple of years and it hasn't worked out for me. I end up with middle tier guys and don't make the playoffs. I'm making bad judgements/evaluations on the non-stars. What suggestions does anyone have for improvements?edit to add that we have 12 teams and our roster size is only 14.
 
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Briman said:
Balance said:
Regardless of the player, you can't do this.There is no set strategy for auction.. you have to play off others, recognize trends, and adapt.If you walk in saying " IM GOING TO GET THIS ONE SINGLE PLAYER ", and someone else goes for the same guy.. you overpay and screw yourself.Set values for yourself, select a RANGE of players you want in those values.The worst thing I see people do is insist upon one single player and overpay.. by a lot.
Click to expand...
I've used this strategy for the last couple of years and it hasn't worked out for me. I end up with middle tier guys and don't make the playoffs. I'm making bad judgements/evaluations on the non-stars. What suggestions does anyone have for improvements?edit to add that we have 12 teams and our roster size is only 14.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying you shouldnt pay the money for good players... I'm saying don't lock in on ONE single player. Happens every draft (I predict Chris Johnson to be it this year, was AP last year), someone blows 40% of their entire bank on one player. Instead decide to get ONE OF THESE 3-4 players. Within a range of 3-4 players (be it your top tier or bottom), you will find one you don't have to overpay on. And I'm not saying it will be the same player every draft. Pick 3-4 (or 4-5.. whatever) players you are willing to pay $X-ish dollars for. If you go a little over, no worries. If you go a little or a lot under - sweet.Do mock auctions at ESPN for some idea of what players will go for (not entirely accurate, but a good framework), get an idea of players you think you can get lower than you thought. Make a list of groups or tiers and what you think they can be had for... wait for it to come to you.
 
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KGB said:
League 4 thread has all players, dollars, and rosters posted.

If I were to do an auction, I woul dlook over thiose teams and see what I liked the best and follow that. Not nessarraly what player at what cost, but top tier RB vs 2 2nd tier rbs, etc. and see what $$$ those tiered players went for.
Click to expand...
link?

 
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