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VBD Baseline (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter badmofo
- Start date
CalBear
Footballguy
Joe's Secret Method emphasizes RBs, based on the number of players at each position expected to be picked in the first 50 picks, or something like that. (I personally don't like it.)Worst Starter sets the baseline at the worst starter for each position; in a 1QB/2RB/3WR league, the baselines will be QB12, RB24, and WR36.User Configurable means you can configure it. By position rank means you put in a number for each position (QB12, RB30, WR45). By point value means you put in a number of points to use as the baseline number. Maurile's auction method is based on weights by position; the numbers are displayed on that screen.
thx
I feel like every year I discover some new feature I wish I new about the prior year. I've always used Joe's secret formula. I would be interested in hearing opinions reagrding the different methods.
Perhaps it is just personal preference. I modified my settings from Joe's secret formuls to worst starter and the ranking changes quite a bit. Specifically as Calbear metioned the RB dropped quite a bit and TE moved up.
Perhaps it is just personal preference. I modified my settings from Joe's secret formuls to worst starter and the ranking changes quite a bit. Specifically as Calbear metioned the RB dropped quite a bit and TE moved up.
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
This is valuable info for a new member who is just learning the DraftDominator/VBD stuff.
My leagues are unconventional in that the draft is 27 rounds and there are no FAs. Thus everyone drafts around 3 starting QBs and their (or other people's
) backup QBs to cover themselves.
QBs also score more than usual leagues. This leads to a serious run on starting QBs before round 5. One league always has a run of backups in rounds 7-9. I don't know how to account for that in the Dominator. I'm guessing that I need to tweak the VBD baseline but not sure how.
Also my league gives big bonuses for long TDs. The scoring system in the DD and Projections Dominator account for this but I don't see a way to tweak the projections to give guys more long TDs in the Projections Dominator.
Thanks in advance to anyone with thoughts or ideas.
My leagues are unconventional in that the draft is 27 rounds and there are no FAs. Thus everyone drafts around 3 starting QBs and their (or other people's
) backup QBs to cover themselves.QBs also score more than usual leagues. This leads to a serious run on starting QBs before round 5. One league always has a run of backups in rounds 7-9. I don't know how to account for that in the Dominator. I'm guessing that I need to tweak the VBD baseline but not sure how.
Also my league gives big bonuses for long TDs. The scoring system in the DD and Projections Dominator account for this but I don't see a way to tweak the projections to give guys more long TDs in the Projections Dominator.
Thanks in advance to anyone with thoughts or ideas.
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Hobbes
Footballguy
I think it is all about personal preferences. If you use worst starter then the assumption is that you value the worst starting kicker, tight end, and defense higher than your first reserve running back (not likely). That is where Joe's secret formula comes into play...he is just readjusting the baseline to reflect position weightings.I personally begin with the worst starter baseline and then adjust based on what I think will really happen. I can use personal preferences, previous draft history, etc. to figure it out and while my baselines may vary slightly from year to year I think they usually come out like this:12 team, start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, D = 9 starters/team = 108 startersBaseline:QB - 15RB - 39WR - 42TE - 6K - 3D - 3
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
This is roughly what I go with, I just go 1 lower on kicker, and then a slight change to rb/wr depending on which league.Hobbes said:
Most important thing though is to be smart when drafting, and think for yourself, and don't the computer do it for you.The method I've used that seems to work best from an intuitive standpoint is to use the number of players at each position normally drafted in the first eight rounds of your draft to set the baselines. This accounts for the uniqueness of each league. I seem to recall reading about this in a FBG article, but I forget which one.
GoBears84
Footballguy
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
Perfect. Thanks much kal-el and GoBears84
(HULK)
(Smash)
inca911
Footballguy
I recommend using the user configurable by position rank method and selecting the baselines for the various positions based on your personal strategy. If you are willing to either pay to get one of the top 4 QBs, or take a lesser QBBC pairing for minimum bid, your baseline should reflect that strategy. If you are in an 8 team league, setting RB baseline at RB#24 might be a good place. All the other methods referenced incorporate various "adjustments" or "tweaks" that change the fundamental calculations and frequently imply a specific base strategy that might not match how you think. It is always dangerous to use tools without understanding what they are truly doing.
greenline
Footballguy
I set my baselines for my 2QB league at the following:
QB - 15th player
RB - 15 player
WR - 20th player
TE - 5th Player
K - 5th Player
DEf - 5th Def
Basically I want to try to assemble a team with two top 15 QB's, two top 15 RB's, 3 top 20 WR's, 1 top 5 TE, one top 5 K, and one top 5 DEF.
Is this the correct way or is this totally wrong?
QB - 15th player
RB - 15 player
WR - 20th player
TE - 5th Player
K - 5th Player
DEf - 5th Def
Basically I want to try to assemble a team with two top 15 QB's, two top 15 RB's, 3 top 20 WR's, 1 top 5 TE, one top 5 K, and one top 5 DEF.
Is this the correct way or is this totally wrong?
is there anyway I could call you to understand this, i don't understand it very good. this is our scoring system:12 Team Redraft & PPRScoringQB 1 pt -20 yds passingQB/RB/WR/TE 1 pt –10 yds rushingRB .5pts/recWR 1 pts/recTE - 1.5pts/rec2 QB2 RB2 WR1 TE1 DEF1 K
videoguy505
Footballguy
This is exactly what I do. I have several years of draft info on the other owners in the league, so I just count the first 97 picks taken (12*8, +1 since 8.12 and 9.01 are the same owner and those picks could be in either order) in each year's draft and average them. Usually in my league it's something like 40 RBs, 30 WRs, 15 QBs, 5 TEs, 2 Ks, 5 DSTs.
Hear-the-Footsteps
Footballguy
Just out of curiousity- why the first 8 rounds?I am not being difficult, rather, I am trying to figure out what I should use.I was going to use the first 100 picks.But I want to see if there is some type of advantage to using the first 8 rounds only in a 10 teamer (80 picks) or a 12 teamer (96 picks) instead of just flat out deciding to usee 100.I would love some insight on why one is better than another.
videoguy505
Footballguy
100 picks or 8 rounds (96 picks) is about the same thing. I like to use the 96 number because each team has made the same number of picks by then and all have felt the same "stress" on positional availability and starting requirements by then. Theoretically, by then each team has made their core starter picks and quality backup selections. At that point, QB16, RB40, WR40, TE 6, DST6, and K4 or whatever should pretty much be equivalent picks for the team--each provides the same relative value to the roster by then.
videoguy505
Footballguy
"Drop off" is the difference between taking the best RB, WR, or whatever, now vs. next round. If you have 1.01, for example, you could decide between Peyton Manning and LT. Taking Manning would get you the most points, since he may outscore LT this year in total Fantasy Points, but, the dropoff is lower. LT will outscore the guy you'd get at RB instead of him at 2.12 by many more points, perhaps hundreds, than Manning will outscore the QB available at 2.12. The dropoff between LT and 2.12 is maybe 20 RBs, while the dropoff between Manning and 2.12 is 2 or 3 QBs. You're better off taking the +200 FP differential and taking LT than taking Manning for +50 Fantasy Points.
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buck naked
Footballguy
Good thread! Thanks everyone! 
inca911
Footballguy
It really comes down to deciding when you aren't willing to pay any extra to get a player at a position. Often the projections become too uncertain to determine that one player is better than the next guy, and they are often backups anyway who likely won't see a lot of playing time.For example, you could decide you won't pay more than minimum for a QB after #20, as QBs #21-28 are roughly equivalent in your opinion (and based on your projections). If you pick QB #20, Manning outscores that baseline guy by about 100 points. His value will be calculated off of that 100 points relative to other positions and he'll cost ~$60 (based on 12 teams, $1 min, 16 players per team, $200 cap). If you think there is a difference between those lower QBs and you want to get one of them, then set the baseline at QB#26, Manning outscores that baseline guy by 134 points, and Manning will now be worth ~$65.Where to set the baseline is a big personal strategy decision. For your league, and based off my projections, I would lean towards the following: QB#20, RB#26, WR#26, TE#10, K#0, DST#7.QB#20: Maybe better at QB#26, but I think Campbell, McNair, Schaub, Leftwich are all equivalent and I will take the scraps unless your league has a bunch of players who hoard QBs and play denial FFL.RB#26: Maybe RB#28, depending on depth. I want two starters and while I'll pay some for McAllister or Lynch or Jamal Lewis, I'm also OK grabbing some backups and players like LaMont Jordan and taking my chances if the matchup looks good.WR#26: Maybe even WR#20, as I think about this a bit. WRs really bunch up, and there are less supply/demand issues relative to QBs and RBs, especially with only 2 WR starters in your league. DJ Hackett = DJax = Galloway = Brandon Jones = Bruce, and I'll look for good matchups and fill as needed. Lots of waiver wire potential and matchups to play. I have no WRs above $50 in your system when I do the math, and only the top 10 WRs are above $30. Randy Moss, Hines Ward, Deion Branch only calculate at $6.TE#10: One TE starter in 12 team league, but more importantly there is a dropoff in my projections of >20 points after TE#10. I don't want to spot my opponents points that are cheap to buy at auction.K#0: Only Vinatieri is worth $1 more than minimum unless you have odd K scoring.DST#7: There is a 20 point drop between DST#5 and #7, and I don't want to spot too many points for very little $.Best of luck!
Hear-the-Footsteps
Footballguy
If some of the staff (Bruce, Joe, David, etc) could chime in on this - that would be awesome.
Because I think FBG puts out these amazing applications (DD, PD, VBD, etc), but if someone doesn't plug in a suitable baseline for their specific league - that could render the results less than optimal.
For instance, they could be phenomenal projections that these applications are based upon, but if someone puts in baseline #s that aren't good for their particular league - it almost wouldn't matter.
So if any of the staff could chime in on what they think is the best baseline to put in - that would be great.
Specifically, I am looking for my own baseline based on my own league tendencies. But just because I have saved that info over the years, doesn't mean I know what to plug in. After all, do I pick the baselines based on 8 rounds of the draft? 10 rounds of previous drafts? Top 100 overall? Top 50 overall?
Example of the discrepency: I have all my league specifics in the PD right now - everything from # of rounds to # of teams, scoring system, lineup requirements, etc.
When I put baselines in based on previous top 10 rounds (100 picks in a 10 teamer) - it has Manning at 38th overall.
When I put baselines in based on previous top 8 rounds (80 picks in a 10 teamer) - it has Manning as 32nd overall.
And there are a million other examples like this.
I know 6 spots off doesn't seem big, but imagine that for a lower tier player. 6 spots divided by the 32nd pick overall is almost a 19% difference from 38th overall. So imagine a similar dropoff for a player much later - like instead of 190th overall, now the guy would be 160th overall. In a 10 team league, that is a difference of where the application suggests his value lies by 3 FULL ROUNDS.
Thus, any suggestions for coming upon the optimal baseline would really be appreciated as it could mean one's draft may go in an entirely different direction - even though they are based on the same projections.
Thanks!
Because I think FBG puts out these amazing applications (DD, PD, VBD, etc), but if someone doesn't plug in a suitable baseline for their specific league - that could render the results less than optimal.
For instance, they could be phenomenal projections that these applications are based upon, but if someone puts in baseline #s that aren't good for their particular league - it almost wouldn't matter.
So if any of the staff could chime in on what they think is the best baseline to put in - that would be great.
Specifically, I am looking for my own baseline based on my own league tendencies. But just because I have saved that info over the years, doesn't mean I know what to plug in. After all, do I pick the baselines based on 8 rounds of the draft? 10 rounds of previous drafts? Top 100 overall? Top 50 overall?
Example of the discrepency: I have all my league specifics in the PD right now - everything from # of rounds to # of teams, scoring system, lineup requirements, etc.
When I put baselines in based on previous top 10 rounds (100 picks in a 10 teamer) - it has Manning at 38th overall.
When I put baselines in based on previous top 8 rounds (80 picks in a 10 teamer) - it has Manning as 32nd overall.
And there are a million other examples like this.
I know 6 spots off doesn't seem big, but imagine that for a lower tier player. 6 spots divided by the 32nd pick overall is almost a 19% difference from 38th overall. So imagine a similar dropoff for a player much later - like instead of 190th overall, now the guy would be 160th overall. In a 10 team league, that is a difference of where the application suggests his value lies by 3 FULL ROUNDS.
Thus, any suggestions for coming upon the optimal baseline would really be appreciated as it could mean one's draft may go in an entirely different direction - even though they are based on the same projections.
Thanks!
CalBear
Footballguy
There is no optimal baseline, so get that out of your head. The important thing is to be mindful about how you're setting your baseline, and to understand the effect it will have on the rankings. You're right that the effect can be dramatic.Philosophically, I tend to view baseline as the point at which players have equal, more or less negligible value. Everyone above the baseline has some value; anyone below the baseline has only marginal, or negligible value.For example, in my auction league I use a custom baseline which basically defines "the player I wouldn't want to spend more than $1 for", for each position. (That turns out to be something like QB28, RB60, WR80, K12, D12 for our setup; a little larger than Maurile's Auction Method). In the Anarchy leagues, which are total-points, all-starter leagues, I use "worst starter" baseline, because every player taken is a starter and they all score every week. For a standard league, all starters should have value, but the last starter is probably not equal value across the positions. I don't much like Joe's Secret Method because it devalues positions unfairly (it overstates the value of RBs based on the logic that people take RBs more than WRs and TEs--basically discarding VBD principles). But the problem with "Worst Starter Method" is that it values TE12/K12/D12 equivalently to RB24, which is almost certainly not what you want. I'd probably recommend doing some sort of custom baseline, like "median backup" or "worst backup" for skill-position players. That also allows you to use VBD to compare backups; your third RB and your second QB both have non-zero value, but with Worst Starter they're both below the baseline, and thus not really comparable.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I know the DD has DVBD built into it based on how the next 12 (or so) picks are projected to go. Does it have the ability to let you enter how your league drafts? My league always drafts QB and TE earlier than RB and I'd like to weight this into the DD somehow.
I'm still wrestling with my custom baseline. I have historic draft data for my 12 team league. We start 1qb, 1rb, 2wr, 0te, and 3flex ( the flex can be rb/wr/te), 1k and 1d/st. Rb & wr get .5ppr, while te gets 1.0ppr. For purposes of ranking, wr & te are combined.
History shows that after 7 rounds, 9qb, 35rb & 40wr have been selected.
History shows that after 8 rounds, 13qb, 37rb & 45wr have been selected.
History shows that after 9 rounds, 17qb, 40rb & 51wr have been selected.
Generally, no k or d/st have been selected in the first 9 rounds (our scoring isn't very favorable for these positions).
What I'm wrestling over is what custom baseline to use - after 84 picks, 96 picks or 108 picks (7, 8 or 9 rounds). There is a difference is the overall rankings depending on which baseline to use. We have 9 starters total, but that includes k and d/st.
I read Calbear's post about there is no optimal baseline, and I've read the Joe & David article, and almost everything in these forums on baselines - going back to 2004 posts.
But, I'm still not sure. Last year, I set my baseline at 84 picks based on 7 skill position starters and won my league. I'm leaning toward that baseline again, but just can't convince myself that I'm approaching this correctly.
Is there anything else I should consider, or that I'm leaving out? Any help would be great.
History shows that after 7 rounds, 9qb, 35rb & 40wr have been selected.
History shows that after 8 rounds, 13qb, 37rb & 45wr have been selected.
History shows that after 9 rounds, 17qb, 40rb & 51wr have been selected.
Generally, no k or d/st have been selected in the first 9 rounds (our scoring isn't very favorable for these positions).
What I'm wrestling over is what custom baseline to use - after 84 picks, 96 picks or 108 picks (7, 8 or 9 rounds). There is a difference is the overall rankings depending on which baseline to use. We have 9 starters total, but that includes k and d/st.
I read Calbear's post about there is no optimal baseline, and I've read the Joe & David article, and almost everything in these forums on baselines - going back to 2004 posts.
But, I'm still not sure. Last year, I set my baseline at 84 picks based on 7 skill position starters and won my league. I'm leaning toward that baseline again, but just can't convince myself that I'm approaching this correctly.
Is there anything else I should consider, or that I'm leaving out? Any help would be great.
inca911
Footballguy
Just remember that by using historical data to set your criteria, you may be repeating the sins of the past rather than truly building a system that is optimal based on fantasy points scored. Just because nobody in your league values defenses doesn't mean you shouldn't. With standard scoring, the Bears and Ravens score roughly 195 points each, which is 24 points more than what the next 7-8 very similar defenses score. I am skeptical that your DST scoring system is so odd that these two DST units aren't standouts. These two defenses are worth the same amount as the difference between two WRs like Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards. Once you know this to be true, you can break the tendencies in your league and have a huge advantage. League trends tell you what to expect from others, knowing true values tells you when to break from the pack and take the lead. Auction is different than draft, so my comments are focused on the more complex auction setting.
greenline
Footballguy
I'll try this one more time. If anyone can offer some insight I will be veru grateful, if not, I understand. I've been asking this alot but still find no one can respond with input....
I know there are other threads and in fact, a long one I was directed to yesterday explaining VBD and the options you have in the Draft Dominator and what they all mean. However, I still need to understand something and if someone can help sort this out for me, when I win my league championship, I'll break the head off the trophy and mail it to you as a sign of my gratitude.
I have a 2QB league. My idea is to try to draft the following:
QB - Two Top 15 QB's
RB - Two Top 15 RB's
WR - Three Top 20 WR's
TE - One Top 5 TE
K - One Top 5 kicker
Def - One Top 5 Defense
I know, not a novel concept.
What I did was set the baseline based on points. I took 2004, 2005, and 2006 points for the 15th player and averaged them together to get a number that represented the bottom amount of points I wanted to collect from that position.
I figured this for all the positions needed. This drastically changed DD's recommendations.
My question is, is this approach totally off base? Is this skewing things incorrectly for me? I'm just not sure if this makes sense.
I know there are other threads and in fact, a long one I was directed to yesterday explaining VBD and the options you have in the Draft Dominator and what they all mean. However, I still need to understand something and if someone can help sort this out for me, when I win my league championship, I'll break the head off the trophy and mail it to you as a sign of my gratitude.
I have a 2QB league. My idea is to try to draft the following:
QB - Two Top 15 QB's
RB - Two Top 15 RB's
WR - Three Top 20 WR's
TE - One Top 5 TE
K - One Top 5 kicker
Def - One Top 5 Defense
I know, not a novel concept.
What I did was set the baseline based on points. I took 2004, 2005, and 2006 points for the 15th player and averaged them together to get a number that represented the bottom amount of points I wanted to collect from that position.
I figured this for all the positions needed. This drastically changed DD's recommendations.
My question is, is this approach totally off base? Is this skewing things incorrectly for me? I'm just not sure if this makes sense.
CalBear
Footballguy
The Ravens D did a great job last year (over 40 points ahead of second place), but in my league, the Chicago D wound up just 5 points ahead of third place, and 24 points would compare to the ninth place D. In 2005 the Ravens finished around #10, and the Bears were #1 but only by 7 points. When the scoring curve is so flat, finishing in 10th place means having essentially no value; the Ravens scored 3 more points than the Titans, who finished the year on the waiver wire, and only 10 points more than the #20 defense.Because of the shape of the curve for defenses, and the fact that I don't really trust the projections, I am not willing to expect that the Ravens and Bears will have significant value, just because the pre-season projections say so.
CalBear
Footballguy
I think setting the baseline based on point totals is a reasonable way to go, but I think you're setting your point totals too high. Unless it's an 8-person league, you shouldn't be able to get everything that you're shooting for. At the very least, I would lower your point totals to the worst starter point totals (QB24, RB24, WR36) so you're comparing against the entire population of likely candidates.
inca911
Footballguy
Then for you all DSTs are worth only a minimum bid. This is an excellent example of how fundamental strategy differences impact the setting of the baselines. I'm willing to pony up to get Bears or Ravens this year, and unwilling to let them go cheap to someone else. Your baseline is DST#0, mine is DST#3. Ravens are worth $0 to you and closer to $15 max to me.
I agree with calbear that your baselines seem way too high, and your standards seem lofty. We need to know # teams in your league and also need to know scoring to see where players start to bunch up and only minimum bids become appropriate as the supply of lesser talent becomes greater than the demand. For 2QB leagues, I definitely want two of the top 15 or so QBs based on supply/demand issues and backups. QBs score too much and drop off significantly in the 20s. RBs a little deeper than worst starter and same with WRs generally works. DST baseline could be 0, 3, or 8, depending on league size and scoring. K should be set at 0 unless you have some really odd scoring. Tell us more about your league....
freshly_shorn
Footballguy
I wrote an article that FBG will publish soon that touches on this subject.
I use baselines culled from my league's past 3 years of drafts, and I arbitrarily decided to use whatever round, on average, in which the last starting QB is typically taken (12 teams), which has been round 7. So, in that group of 84 players I take a weighted average of each of the three years, giving precedence to the most recent draft.
For K and IDP, I just use the worst starter as the baseline since none are drafted in the first 7 rounds.
At the end of the day, you just need to play around with the baseline until what you see agrees with what you 'feel' it should look like. There's really no best way to do it, though I think considering your league's drafting habits can be a useful exercise in helping you determine your strategy.
I use baselines culled from my league's past 3 years of drafts, and I arbitrarily decided to use whatever round, on average, in which the last starting QB is typically taken (12 teams), which has been round 7. So, in that group of 84 players I take a weighted average of each of the three years, giving precedence to the most recent draft.
For K and IDP, I just use the worst starter as the baseline since none are drafted in the first 7 rounds.
At the end of the day, you just need to play around with the baseline until what you see agrees with what you 'feel' it should look like. There's really no best way to do it, though I think considering your league's drafting habits can be a useful exercise in helping you determine your strategy.
greenline
Footballguy
I agree with calbear that your baselines seem way too high, and your standards seem lofty. We need to know # teams in your league and also need to know scoring to see where players start to bunch up and only minimum bids become appropriate as the supply of lesser talent becomes greater than the demand. For 2QB leagues, I definitely want two of the top 15 or so QBs based on supply/demand issues and backups. QBs score too much and drop off significantly in the 20s. RBs a little deeper than worst starter and same with WRs generally works. DST baseline could be 0, 3, or 8, depending on league size and scoring. K should be set at 0 unless you have some really odd scoring. Tell us more about your league....
Thank you.
10 Team Keeper League
PPR
6 pts for ALL TD's
points for PR and KR yards
2QB-2RB-3WR-K-TE-DEF
So what do I do here in terms of a baseline? If I drop the baseline to 24 on RB's isn't that just using worst starter method?
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
This thread has so much great stuff in it. I need to bookmark it and have it open while I mess with the DD and PDs. This helps a ton. I really didn't have much idea of what the DD could do (probably still don't) and was a bit skeptical but this is definitely going to help.
inca911
Footballguy
QB demand is high, supply is low with 2 QB starters. I set baseline at QB#21 (272 points) as I am comfortable getting a Delhomme, McNair, Schaub, Leftwich type player as my backup for min bid and these players project about the same in the 240s-260s. In my scoring there is a drop after QB#21, so I don't want to pay for any players after that dropoff. If there was a dropoff after QB#23, I'd likely move my baseline a bit lower to match that dropoff. Injury concern isn't as high for QB as RB and backups don't usually take up roster spots.RB demand is high, supply is also reasonable but injuries require more backup liklihood. I set baseline at RB#26 as I'll draft backup RBs for min bid and/or take players like LaMont Jordan, Jamal Lewis, and the like but my strategic preference is to have some RB depth. RB#26 is scoring 190 points, and RB#19 is scoring about 20 points more (20 points over 7 positions). After RB#26, the dropoff is more significant as RB#30 is about 160 total fantasy points (30 points over 4 positions).WR demand is fairly low and supply is large. I set baseline at WR#22 (Hines Ward at 211 points), as the next ten WRs score within 15 points of one another and I'm ok to gamble on DJ Hackett, DJax, Brandon Jones, Porter type players regardless of who falls to me.TE#10 scores 133 points, TE#11 scores 118. With 10 TE starters, I'm not paying for anybody after TE#10. This happens to match last starting TE, but that is coincidence based on the dropoff in scoring. My backup will be a backup and see minimal playing time.K baseline at 0. The top 10 kickers are within 10 total fantasy points for the year. No preference. I will nominate kickers for minimum and let others pay more until nobody bids against me.DST baseline at #7. DSTs 7 - 12 are separated by 7 total fantasy points for the year. DST #6 is 10 points higher than #7, so DST #6 has some value to me. I could set this baseline at DST #3 after the dropoff from CHI and BAL, but my strategy and belief is that NE DST is better than PHI so I will pay some to get NE. Note than CHI is projected to score 226 points to DST #7 total of 168 points. This is a 56 point advantage within the DST position, so CHI is worth some $$ to me (as much as Carson Palmer vs. Jay Cutler).Note that for all these positions, my evaluation of actual player scoring factors into the decision to set the baseline where I don't want to pay anymore than the minimum. The baseline is often after some scoring dropoff occurs and players bunch up at a position, so my strategy is to accept whoever comes to me after that dropoff. Each individual's strategy and preference factors into determination of baseline.
Fantasy Strategist
Footballguy
Good info guys...keep it going
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
In reading this thread & others over the years, it seems that different people want VBD to do different things for them.
Some appear to want it to match their past drafts. So they tweak the baselines until they basically get an ADP for their league based on what's happened in former drafts. I really don't see the point in this & think it's redundant. It's also self-fulfilling as you're forcing your baselines to give you a ranking that matches that ADP.
Others want something that "looks" right for a draft: "there's no way a defense should have enough value to show up as a second-round choice; I'll move the baseline until they're a 7th". This may be regardless of whether their particular league in fact does put incredible value on D's. - it just doesn't "look right", so I'm adjusting the baseline. Keep in mind that VBD doesn't purport to be a draft guide, but a tool to show where value might lie.
And still others may want it for "season-long value". Which, to me, is the whole point of using projections for a season as the generator of fantasy points.
If we're to assume that the theory behind VBD is sound (that all players have value & leaving aside the fallability of projections), then I think we need to ask the following questions:
1. Does league set-up affect player values? In other words, are player values specific to a particular league & will they be different in another league with different parameters? If so, why?
2. How much do starting requirements affect player values? Why?
3. How much do total roster requirements affect player value? Why?
4. If, as some have suggested, there is no "right" baseline then it follows that players either a) have no value, or b) player value doesn't matter. All you're doing is manipulating numbers that mean nothing, since there's no "right" then there's no "wrong" either. Is that correct?
I guess what I'm getting after is what exactly is value & what determines it? If #1 above is true, then there has to be a "true" value for every player in every league; meaning that there has to be a "right" baseline for that league to determine that value; meaning that all other baselines are wrong. Setting a baseline so you get a list that looks good to you may not necessarily be anywhere near what the list would look like if you were able to actually determine each player's "correct" value.
Are any of the assumptions I've made in my last paragraph wrong?
I know there are some very analytical minds that post here - both members & staff. We've had dozens of these threads over the years & it's always disappointed me a little that more staff didn't get involved (specifically, but not limited to, Joe). Maurile used to hop in every now & again, but he's about the only one I can recall. So what usually happens is these threads devolve into advice on how to tweak baselines so that everyone gets a list that looks right.
Some appear to want it to match their past drafts. So they tweak the baselines until they basically get an ADP for their league based on what's happened in former drafts. I really don't see the point in this & think it's redundant. It's also self-fulfilling as you're forcing your baselines to give you a ranking that matches that ADP.
Others want something that "looks" right for a draft: "there's no way a defense should have enough value to show up as a second-round choice; I'll move the baseline until they're a 7th". This may be regardless of whether their particular league in fact does put incredible value on D's. - it just doesn't "look right", so I'm adjusting the baseline. Keep in mind that VBD doesn't purport to be a draft guide, but a tool to show where value might lie.
And still others may want it for "season-long value". Which, to me, is the whole point of using projections for a season as the generator of fantasy points.
If we're to assume that the theory behind VBD is sound (that all players have value & leaving aside the fallability of projections), then I think we need to ask the following questions:
1. Does league set-up affect player values? In other words, are player values specific to a particular league & will they be different in another league with different parameters? If so, why?
2. How much do starting requirements affect player values? Why?
3. How much do total roster requirements affect player value? Why?
4. If, as some have suggested, there is no "right" baseline then it follows that players either a) have no value, or b) player value doesn't matter. All you're doing is manipulating numbers that mean nothing, since there's no "right" then there's no "wrong" either. Is that correct?
I guess what I'm getting after is what exactly is value & what determines it? If #1 above is true, then there has to be a "true" value for every player in every league; meaning that there has to be a "right" baseline for that league to determine that value; meaning that all other baselines are wrong. Setting a baseline so you get a list that looks good to you may not necessarily be anywhere near what the list would look like if you were able to actually determine each player's "correct" value.
Are any of the assumptions I've made in my last paragraph wrong?
I know there are some very analytical minds that post here - both members & staff. We've had dozens of these threads over the years & it's always disappointed me a little that more staff didn't get involved (specifically, but not limited to, Joe). Maurile used to hop in every now & again, but he's about the only one I can recall. So what usually happens is these threads devolve into advice on how to tweak baselines so that everyone gets a list that looks right.
maxwell1295
Footballguy
My "main" league is a 12-team, non-keeper league. Lineups are QB,RB,WR,TE,FLEX,FLEX,FLEX,K,IDP,IDP,IDP. Scoring is 6pts per TD for all, no PPR, 50yds passing and 15yds rushing/receiving per point.
In this format RBs are at an extreme premium. The baseline is going to be a lot lower for RBs than it is for WRs and QBs. Since we can theoretically start 4 RBs and only 1 WR, you know where the value is going to be (especially without PPR).
In this format RBs are at an extreme premium. The baseline is going to be a lot lower for RBs than it is for WRs and QBs. Since we can theoretically start 4 RBs and only 1 WR, you know where the value is going to be (especially without PPR).
Not easily configurable in VBD. Easy to configure in PD and DD set up menus.
CrossEyed
Footballguy
Ahhh, I see. Thanks.
Sketch
Footballguy
I've generally used Joe's formula and only needed to deviate in leagues where I have to start IDP but not specific to LB/DB/DL. In such a case, I'll use a point-specific baselines close to Joe's (Scooby: if you think TE1 is high, have a look at it with worst-starter method. In my 10-team PPR league where you have 1 TE starter, he jumped 10 slots in the rankings.)
This is a fantastic thread, and I like where Uruk Hai wants to take it. I'm always willing to try new things for draft prep and have these kinds of discussions. I agree that different people want VBD for different things, but I don't really see that as a bad thing.
This is a fantastic thread, and I like where Uruk Hai wants to take it. I'm always willing to try new things for draft prep and have these kinds of discussions. I agree that different people want VBD for different things, but I don't really see that as a bad thing.
I don't see the redundancy. The only definite match by using past draft results is that your positional makeup for the top X rounds will be the same in your value list as ADP. The order of said positions and each individual player within those top X rounds can still vary quite a bit. To be honest, I'm actually tempted to try this.
If by "VBD" you mean the value number itself, I agree 100%. However, David and Joe have expanded the VBD principles article to describe it as a complete draft system and use X to label the value number.
I don't think so. To say "no single baseline is perfect for every league" does not automatically mean "all baselines are equal in any league and therefore worthless." Why not? There may be consensus that some baselines are more sound than others. I haven't meant anyone that prefers "lowest roster spot" over "lowest starter," though if they did I'd love to hear the logic behind it. I would also argue that while there may be a lot of custom tweaking for aesthetic/drafting purposes, worst starter (in at least one position) is a driver for most of them.
The only assumption I would question is that a single objectively best baseline exists for a given league and will always remain the best baseline regardless of projection (in)accuracy. I'm open to the idea that it might exist, but I'm not willing to commit to that. If we define value as how much a player outscores his peers at his position (or starting spot for flex), the question becomes what an appropriate indicator of that comparison is. Your second and third questions speak to that well, and I'd love to hear more people's insight on it. I just have a hard time envisioning what a universal baseline formula would look like.
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