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Cadillac's Schedule (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
John Mamula
Moderator
Link to projected strength of schedule having a statistically significant effect on production?
John Mamula
Moderator
That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Why are we looking at Cadillac's playoff schedule, he'll be hurt by then 
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Hey LHUCKS . . .
There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.
Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?
There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.
Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Uhh...no that is not my "perception." From NFL.com:Chicago Rushing Yards/G - 102.3That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
Chicago Rushing TDs allowed = 9
Houston Rushing Yards/G - 142.3
Houston Rushing TDs allowed = 21
I'd rather my RB#1 face Houston than Chicago this year.
But go ahead and neglect this information...I look forward to taking your money again in GSOS.
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
So he had alot of carries and he proved he couldn't carry the load.
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John Mamula
Moderator
You are looking at past statistics and not projected statistics. Can you predict a defense's rank for year n+1 based on year n?Uhh...no that is not my perception. From NFL.com:Chicago Rushing Yards/G - 102.3That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
Chicago Rushing TDs allowed = 9
Houston Rushing Yards/G - 142.3
Houston Rushing TDs allowed = 21
I'd rather my RB#1 face Houston than Chicago this year.
But go ahead and neglect this information...I look forward to taking your money again GSOS.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I'll bet you 500 bucks Chicago allows less rushing fantasy points than San Francisco...do you want some of that action?If you don't, now you know where I'm coming from.You are looking at past statistics and not projected statistics. Can you predict a defense's rank for year n+1 based on year n?Uhh...no that is not my perception. From NFL.com:Chicago Rushing Yards/G - 102.3That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
Chicago Rushing TDs allowed = 9
Houston Rushing Yards/G - 142.3
Houston Rushing TDs allowed = 21
I'd rather my RB#1 face Houston than Chicago this year.
But go ahead and neglect this information...I look forward to taking your money again GSOS.
John Mamula
Moderator
You're avoiding the question.I'll bet you 500 bucks Chicago allows less rushing fantasy points than San Francisco...do you want some of that action?If you don't, now you know where I'm coming from.You are looking at past statistics and not projected statistics. Can you predict a defense's rank for year n+1 based on year n?Uhh...no that is not my perception. From NFL.com:Chicago Rushing Yards/G - 102.3That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
Chicago Rushing TDs allowed = 9
Houston Rushing Yards/G - 142.3
Houston Rushing TDs allowed = 21
I'd rather my RB#1 face Houston than Chicago this year.
But go ahead and neglect this information...I look forward to taking your money again GSOS.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Suit yourself . . .Williams ranked 20th out of 21 backs with 290 carries as a rookie--behind Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Bobby Humphrey, and Rashaan Salaam and ahead of only John Stephens.
Running the numbers for rookies without consideration for workload, Williams campaign ranked as the 62nd best season for a rookie RB since 1960.
I'm not saying he will be a total dud, just thinking out load that he may not be "all that" as some are suggesting.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
You can't predict most things in the NFL with certainty...it's a ridiculous question.FF is about playing the odds.You're avoiding the question.I'll bet you 500 bucks Chicago allows less rushing fantasy points than San Francisco...do you want some of that action?If you don't, now you know where I'm coming from.You are looking at past statistics and not projected statistics. Can you predict a defense's rank for year n+1 based on year n?Uhh...no that is not my perception. From NFL.com:Chicago Rushing Yards/G - 102.3That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
Chicago Rushing TDs allowed = 9
Houston Rushing Yards/G - 142.3
Houston Rushing TDs allowed = 21
I'd rather my RB#1 face Houston than Chicago this year.
But go ahead and neglect this information...I look forward to taking your money again GSOS.
Now answer my question, do you want some of that action or not?
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Lhuck's you sound very confident on this. Let me ask you a question, would have you bet $500 last year that you could get 5 out of ten ff running backs before the season. I think most people would think they could do that but by your projections, which I give you prop's for keeping on your signature, you only got 4. The point I'm trying to make is you never know what a new season is going to bring. I think Chicago's rushing totals were so low last year because they were winning alot of their games and teams had to pass on them in the second half. If Chicago was trailing those games by a td or 2 the teams of course would run the ball more and make their stats look worse. I completely agree that Chicago SHOULD be better this year than SF but that is because I think SF will be losing in the 2nd half of games.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
So only 21 runningbacks in the history of the NFL have been able to carry that kind of load.
Let's see that entire list and take a look at how many busted in year 2...I would guess it's a very low percentage by NFL RB standards.Nobody is saying he is the next Barry Sanders, but if you want solid FF production Cadillac looks like he may be able to give you what few NFL RBs can...workhorse numbers.
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
And he couldn't get the job done consistenly could he? Look at the middle of the season after his heavy start. The guy was horrible and had injuries.
So he had alot of carries and he proved he couldn't carry the load.He had one of the highest carry totals for rookies in the history of the NFL.
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............didn't know it was still the year 1990? :timewarp:
...jesus I'm 31 and am already losing my mind...I think I've been in the ffa too much this offseason. 
John Mamula
Moderator
What kind of odds am I getting. They must be good since Houston is so bad.You can't predict most things in the NFL with certainty...it's a ridiculous question.FF is about playing the odds.You're avoiding the question.I'll bet you 500 bucks Chicago allows less rushing fantasy points than San Francisco...do you want some of that action?If you don't, now you know where I'm coming from.You are looking at past statistics and not projected statistics. Can you predict a defense's rank for year n+1 based on year n?Uhh...no that is not my perception. From NFL.com:Chicago Rushing Yards/G - 102.3That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
Chicago Rushing TDs allowed = 9
Houston Rushing Yards/G - 142.3
Houston Rushing TDs allowed = 21
I'd rather my RB#1 face Houston than Chicago this year.
But go ahead and neglect this information...I look forward to taking your money again GSOS.
Now answer my question, do you want some of that action or not?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
1 Eric Dickerson 341.20 2 Edgerrin James 315.90So only 21 runningbacks in the history of the NFL have been able to carry that kind of load.
Nobody is saying he is the next Barry Sanders, but if you want solid FF production Cadillac looks like he may be able to give you what few NFL RBs can...workhorse numbers.
3 Billy Sims 288.40
4 Curtis Martin 264.80
5 Curt Warner 261.40
6 George Rogers 258.00
7 Mike Anderson 255.60
8 Marshall Faulk 252.40
9 Ottis Anderson 251.30
10 Joe Cribbs 232.00
11 Earl Campbell 227.80
12 LaDainian Tomlinson 220.30
13 Robert Edwards 216.60
14 Jerome Bettis 209.30
15 Eddie George 203.00
16 Jamal Lewis 202.00
17 Karim Abdul-Jabbar 191.50
18 Bobby Humphrey 183.55
19 Rashaan Salaam 173.00
20 Cadillac Williams 161.90
21 John Stephens 150.60
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Oh great, the bandwagon just pulled up
LHUCKS
Footballguy
And he couldn't get the job done consistenly could he? Look at the middle of the season after his heavy start. The guy was horrible and had injuries.
So he had alot of carries and he proved he couldn't carry the load.
Rookie of the year down? I'm sorry but you can't make statements like this without making a mockery of yourself. Back it up if you think he is "horrible." Tell us why.Blackjacks
Footballguy
I would also bet that Cadillac is one of the smaller backs on that list.1 Eric Dickerson 341.20 2 Edgerrin James 315.90So only 21 runningbacks in the history of the NFL have been able to carry that kind of load.
Nobody is saying he is the next Barry Sanders, but if you want solid FF production Cadillac looks like he may be able to give you what few NFL RBs can...workhorse numbers.
3 Billy Sims 288.40
4 Curtis Martin 264.80
5 Curt Warner 261.40
6 George Rogers 258.00
7 Mike Anderson 255.60
8 Marshall Faulk 252.40
9 Ottis Anderson 251.30
10 Joe Cribbs 232.00
11 Earl Campbell 227.80
12 LaDainian Tomlinson 220.30
13 Robert Edwards 216.60
14 Jerome Bettis 209.30
15 Eddie George 203.00
16 Jamal Lewis 202.00
17 Karim Abdul-Jabbar 191.50
18 Bobby Humphrey 183.55
19 Rashaan Salaam 173.00
20 Cadillac Williams 161.90
21 John Stephens 150.60
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Very impressive list indeed. How many of those guys are HOFers?? I count at least 12 or so that saw multiple Pro Bowls.I'm the winner...all hail LHUCKS.1 Eric Dickerson 341.20 2 Edgerrin James 315.90So only 21 runningbacks in the history of the NFL have been able to carry that kind of load.
Nobody is saying he is the next Barry Sanders, but if you want solid FF production Cadillac looks like he may be able to give you what few NFL RBs can...workhorse numbers.
3 Billy Sims 288.40
4 Curtis Martin 264.80
5 Curt Warner 261.40
6 George Rogers 258.00
7 Mike Anderson 255.60
8 Marshall Faulk 252.40
9 Ottis Anderson 251.30
10 Joe Cribbs 232.00
11 Earl Campbell 227.80
12 LaDainian Tomlinson 220.30
13 Robert Edwards 216.60
14 Jerome Bettis 209.30
15 Eddie George 203.00
16 Jamal Lewis 202.00
17 Karim Abdul-Jabbar 191.50
18 Bobby Humphrey 183.55
19 Rashaan Salaam 173.00
20 Cadillac Williams 161.90
21 John Stephens 150.60
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
If I had a point, it would be that I would be concerned in taking Williams at his currently consensus #9 slot overall.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
SOS is very,very overrated.
I would not let a schedule dictate if I take a player or not.
Too much changes from year to year.
I would not let a schedule dictate if I take a player or not.
Too much changes from year to year.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I think he's a safe pick, but his upside will be limited by three factors:1) Receiving Numbers
2) TDs
3) Schedule
He's not ranked 10 in my rankings for upside, he's ranked 10th because I think he's a solid workhorse back with youth on his side..."Risk Averse."
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
Well, I wouldn't want to make a mockery of myself so if you can tell me you would have wanted Caddy for these 6 weeks in the middle of the season I'll buy what your selling.11 rushes for 13 yards, 2 rec's for 6 yardsAnd he couldn't get the job done consistenly could he? Look at the middle of the season after his heavy start. The guy was horrible and had injuries.
So he had alot of carries and he proved he couldn't carry the load.
DNP
DNP
13 rushes for 20 yards, 1 rec for 5 yards
11 for 29 yards and 3 for 25
10 carries for 20 yards
and zero td's during that time.
That's looks like to me he couldn't carry the load. He even had a bye week imbetween there.
NoFBinLA
Moderator
For myself - I take a gander at the schedule for a player and look to see who - traditionally (ie, who in the last several years) have been tough against the run (or pass, if I'm thinking WR or QB).
Then I take a look at who did what in the off-season. And I add that together - along with ALOT of other info - and then...
..... make my best guess.
Seriously, I pay more attention to the shifting SOS throughout the season - when we can see who is tough against what - so that I know who to start week in and week out.
It only plays marginally in my draft - but you can't ignore it completely. You can't tell me (though somebody will try) that if you had RB A and RB B and they were both solid and A would be facing Houston and SF in the playoffs and B was facing the Bears and Pittsburgh that you wouldn't take that into consideration.
Then I take a look at who did what in the off-season. And I add that together - along with ALOT of other info - and then...
..... make my best guess.
Seriously, I pay more attention to the shifting SOS throughout the season - when we can see who is tough against what - so that I know who to start week in and week out.
It only plays marginally in my draft - but you can't ignore it completely. You can't tell me (though somebody will try) that if you had RB A and RB B and they were both solid and A would be facing Houston and SF in the playoffs and B was facing the Bears and Pittsburgh that you wouldn't take that into consideration.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
If he got hurt I'd rather have him sit so I could go with his back up who could maybe get me an avg of 4 points a game. But your right to each their own.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I will agree there are alot of landmines but I'd take alot of older, proven rb's over Caddy at this point.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
The top of the list is quite impressive, the lower level guys not as much. To better put things into context, that list of 213 that I referenced early IMO has some of its own indicators. Only 42 guys scored under 200 fantasy points including:Eddie George well past his prime, Errict Rhett, Earnest Jackson, Reggie Cobb, Mark VanEeghen, Sammy Winder, Adrian Murrell, Lamar Smith, Anthony Johnson, Jerome Bettis, Antowain Smith, and James Allen.Very impressive list indeed. How many of those guys are HOFers?? I count at least 12 or so that saw multiple Pro Bowls.
I'm the winner...all hail LHUCKS.
Most of these guys were marginal RB2s based solely on their workload. I'm not sure I'd want to invest me first round pick on a guy that has proven to be marginally effective when he's healthy, has not scored very often % wise, and rarely gets any receiving yards. But maybe that's just me.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
This is true, part of my support for Cadillac comes from just watching the guy. He makes the most out of what he is given...it's not like he was running behind KC's line. He is very, very talented and I think staring at YPC numbers will lead you in the wrong direction when trying to asses Caddy's real value.If you really think this guy is horrible based on fantasy point production, you need to cut the computer off and watch a game.Seriously.Oh great, the bandwagon just pulled up
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
I can't argue that fact that when healthy he is very good. I agree, he is very talented and he does get the tough yards. That's also where his problem lies though. He isn't built to take that kind of punishment, therefore I don't think he can be a reliable running back for an entire year. For the beginnning of the season I'm sure he'll be good but after his body starts to get ran down alittle I think we'll see a trend. The guy does have talent though, I never said he wasn't talented.If you really think this guy is horrible based on fantasy point production, you need to cut the computer off and watch a game.Seriously.Oh great, the bandwagon just pulled up
Capella
Footballguy
I'm not sure you can claim his foot injury as being run down. It was just a freak injury. He sure looked good to me in games later in the year against Carolina, Atlanta, etc.I can't argue that fact that when healthy he is very good. I agree, he is very talented and he does get the tough yards. That's also where his problem lies though. He isn't built to take that kind of punishment, therefore I don't think he can be a reliable running back for an entire year. For the beginnning of the season I'm sure he'll be good but after his body starts to get ran down alittle I think we'll see a trend. The guy does have talent though, I never said he wasn't talented.If you really think this guy is horrible based on fantasy point production, you need to cut the computer off and watch a game.Seriously.Oh great, the bandwagon just pulled up
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Most of the guys in the bottom of that 290 carry list were marginal RB2s in that they ranked in the late teens or early 20s for RBs that year. They did so not beacuse they put up great numbers but because they got the ball a lot.Williams touched the ball 310 times last year and only scored 161 fantasy points. How many more times do you think is a reasonable amount that Williams will get the ball next year?
While he should have "more" touches next year, I think it would be unwise to project any RB with much more than 350 touches on the season--so in my book maybe we project him with 40 more for next year (understanding that guys with more than that should be considered "gravy" at that point). On average, there are about 9 guys per season that get 350 touches, so I don't think setting that as the high point is unreasonable.
Based on that, Williams will need to do some of the following to climb the RB rankings in my book:
- Get a lot more TD than the 6 he scored last year.
- Get a lot more receiving yards than the 80 he had last year
- Get more than 4.1 yards per carry than last year
- Get a lot more touches than the 310 he got last year
IMO, we've limited Item #4 already. I don't think predicting a big uptick in Item #1 is warranted. I don't see him turning into Michael Westbrook, so #2 has some limitations. And a 4.1 ypc is not all that bad.
So I don't see where Williams, on paper, is going to do a whole lot better than last year when he ranked 19th. I personally do not see the "limited risk" in taking a guy 8th or 9th overall when in my eyes I see him struggling to do much better than 19th at RB.
Maybe that's just me thinking out loud and not seeing what you're seeing, but that's how I see it.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Does etc. mean these games?14 carries for 23 yards and 3 catches for 4 yardsI'm not sure you can claim his foot injury as being run down. It was just a freak injury. He sure looked good to me in games later in the year against Carolina, Atlanta, etc.I can't argue that fact that when healthy he is very good. I agree, he is very talented and he does get the tough yards. That's also where his problem lies though. He isn't built to take that kind of punishment, therefore I don't think he can be a reliable running back for an entire year. For the beginnning of the season I'm sure he'll be good but after his body starts to get ran down alittle I think we'll see a trend. The guy does have talent though, I never said he wasn't talented.If you really think this guy is horrible based on fantasy point production, you need to cut the computer off and watch a game.Seriously.Oh great, the bandwagon just pulled up
22 carries for 81 (okay I guess) and
18 carries for 49 yards and 3 catches for 10 yards.
Take the good with the bad.
The dude is just all or nothing the way I see it and what really sucks is if he's having a bad game he usually won't get you that one yard td to help you out.
He basically had 6 really good games last year and 6 really bad games.
That's not what I want with my first round pick.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Stats not needed, common sense will dueThat's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.
zoonation
Footballguy
the best value play in that range this year will be Rudi Johnson.Cadillac is a great talent, but I am not sure he can handle a 280+ carry season without getting dinged up.
I would not be really comfortable with him as my RB1, but like you mentioned, there are a lot of land mines out there this year.
More than ever, I think this is the year to trade to get into the top three picks. The TD production alone makes it worth it.
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