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DEFENSE STRATEGY (1 Viewer)

P

paulbertini

Footballguy
A little strategy I've come up with to help those who don't have a solid fantasy defense.....

I used my leagues scoring which is pretty standard, results may vary depending on your scoring.

Defense/ST

0 Points Allowed (Shutout): 10 points

1 - 6PA: 8 points

7 – 13 PA: 6 points

14 - 20 PA: 2 points

21 – 27PA: 1 points

28 – 34PA: 0 points

35 – 41PA: -2 points

42+ PA: -4 points

Sack = 1pt

Safety = 2 pts

Int = 2 pts

Fumble Recovery = 2pts

Blocked FG, XP, Punt = 2pts

Def/ST TD = 6 pts

TOP 15 2010 DEFENSE RANKINGS BY MY LEAGUES SCORING:

1. 132 Points - Defenses playing Carolina

2. 123 Points - Defenses playing Arizona

3. 122 Points - Defenses playing Minnesota

4. 121 Points - Packers D

5. 111 Points - Defenses playing Chicago

5. 111 Points - Titans D

7. 109 Points - Bears D

8. 108 Points - Steelers D

9. 105 Points - Cardinals D

10. 101 Points - Raiders D

11. 100 Points - Defenses playing Dallas

11. 100 Points - Seahawks D

13. 98 Points - Patriots D

14. 96 Points - Defenses playing Cincinnati

14. 96 Points - Lions D

Other notables (Defenses playing Washington 89 points, have given up 16,18,14 the last three weeks, most in the NFL)

Week 11.

Chicago @ Miami

Arizona @ Kansas City

Greenbay @ Minnesota

Washington @ Tennessee

Baltimore @ Carolina

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Detroit @ Dallas

I'd imagine GB, TEN, and BAL are taken.

Kansas City and Miami @ home are excellent plays.

Detroit and Buffalo are risky, but startable if there's nothing else.

Week 12.

New Orleans @ Dallas

Cincinnati @ NY Jets

Minnesota @ Washington

Carolina @ Cleveland

San Fran @ Arizona

Philadelphia @ Chicago

I'd imagine PHI, NO, JETS and SF are taken.

Cleveland and Washington @ home are excellent plays.

Minnesota is a decent play on the road.

Week 13.

Buffalo @ Minnesota

New Orleans @ Cincinnati

Chicago @ Detroit

Washington @ NY Giants

Carolina @ Seattle

St. Louis @ Arizona

Dallas @ Indy

I'd imagine NO, NYG, and IND are taken.

Seattle and Detroit at home are excellent plays.

Buffalo and St. Louis are decent plays on the road.

Week 14.

New England @ Chicago

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

NY Giants @ Minnesota

Tampa Bay @ Washington

Atlanta @ Carolina

Denver @ Arizona

Philadelphia @ Dallas

I'd imagine PHI, NYG, PIT, NE, ATL are taken.

Tampa and Denver on the road are decent plays.

Week 15.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Arizona @ Carolina

Washington @ Dallas

Chicago @ Minnesota

I'd imagine Chicago is taken.

Carolina, Dallas, and Minnesota at home are good plays.

Cleveland, Arizona, Washington, on the road are decent plays.

Week 16.

Carolina @ Pittsburgh

Dallas @ Arizona

NY Jets @ Chicago

Washington @ Jacksonville

San Diego @ Cincinnati

Minnesota @ Philadelphia

I'd imagine PIT, NYJ, SD, PHI are taken.

Arizona and Jacksonville at home are good plays.

Dallas on the road is a decent play.

Rest of my season will look like this:

11 - Kansas City vs. Arizona

12 - Cleveland vs. Carolina

13 - Seattle vs Carolina

14 - First round playoff bye

15 - Cleveland @ Cincinnati or Carolina vs Arizona. (Unless Dallas gives up and benches Kitna, then it will be Washington)

16 - Jacksonville vs Washington

Hope this helps you fellow waiver wire defense guys.

 
Excellent. I've tried to stay true to my original MIN and SF D/ST rotation, but both have been major disappointments. With turnovers worth so many points, it may be time to pick on crappy offenses rather than drafting a "great" D/ST.

Thanks!

 
paulbertini said:
bushisdaman said:
I suprised the Giants arent in your rankings
Click to expand...
The Giants Defense has scored 87 Points in my league. and The Giants Offense is averaging 23.4 points per game, and have given up the least amount of sacks in the NFL at 12.so i dont really know what you're asking?
Click to expand...
I think he's saying the Giants D have been pretty good lately. At least since week 4 they are ranked 7th in my league. Scoring same as yours, but sacks are 2 pts.
 
Last week I picked up TB and Baltimore. I played TB vs Car last week. This week I will play Bal vs Car. Today I dropped TB and picked up CLE. CLE plays Car next week. See a pattern? All my picks were from Free Agents, while my league mates are putting waiver claims for DEF every week. So I just pick my DEF a week ahead of time and avoid waivers, while my waiver priority gets lower and lower for when the true talent emerges :blackdot:

 
Thanks for the excellent breakdown....this is why the SP still rules (once you sift through the rubble).

 
Very nice. For those thinking ahead to the playoffs, I agree the week 15 Arizona at Carolina game looks good for a defense, but which one? I just picked up Arizona but could Carolina be a better play at home? I can't imagine anyone in my league picking up Carolina so I'm sure they would be available later on.

 
Hawk Fan said:
Very nice. For those thinking ahead to the playoffs, I agree the week 15 Arizona at Carolina game looks good for a defense, but which one? I just picked up Arizona but could Carolina be a better play at home? I can't imagine anyone in my league picking up Carolina so I'm sure they would be available later on.
Click to expand...
Arizona is the better defense, so i'd probably go with them. They'd be facing Clausen or Pike, and its looking like Deangelo may be out for the year. But Carolina wouldnt be a bad consolation prize as the cards don't score, give up sacks and turn the ball over a lot!
 
Unfortunately someone in my league picked up Cleveland on waivers... so my defense schedule will look like this....

11 Kansas City HOME vs Arizona

12 Washington HOME vs Minnesota

13 Seattle HOME vs Carolina

14 First Round Playoff BYE

15 Carolina HOME vs Arizona or Washington ROAD vs Dallas (McGee may be QB at this time?)

16 Will wait to see if any Defenses get dropped...

 
Anyone look at Dallas? Maybe new head coach and change of attitude - they do something down the stretch.

vs WAS week 15

@ ARI week 16

Using the advice here - I have a 3 headed monster in defenses. NO, SF, and DAL.

So my stretch run and playoff schedule looks like this.

NO vs SEA

SF @ ARI

NO @ CINCY

SF vs SEA or NO vs STL

DAL vs WAS

DAL @ ARI

I hate having to roster Dallas so early, but I am worried about the week 15 and 16 matchup. Really trying to look and think ahead.

 
paulbertini: great work. I am a numbers-geek and I love the fact that you have done the homework here! It is so much easier to discuss data and facts than emotion and gut-feelings.

 
paulbertini said:
bushisdaman said:
I suprised the Giants arent in your rankings
Click to expand...
The Giants Defense has scored 87 Points in my league. and The Giants Offense is averaging 23.4 points per game, and have given up the least amount of sacks in the NFL at 12.so i dont really know what you're asking?
Click to expand...
They have a decent schedule ahead, FBG's have them as the 3rd best Defense going forward but honestly it seems you are looking at how teams have scored in the past in your rankings and I agree that that is good logic for the teams you have rated that will play the panthers or cardinals etc. but teams like the Bears for example or better yet the Chargers may not have a cushy rest of the way schedule. Right now the Bears, Ravens and Chargers are all on my waivers. I am considering grabbing the Bears and Ravens though. :rolleyes: for future reference.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
bushisdaman said:
paulbertini said:
bushisdaman said:
I suprised the Giants arent in your rankings
Click to expand...
The Giants Defense has scored 87 Points in my league. and The Giants Offense is averaging 23.4 points per game, and have given up the least amount of sacks in the NFL at 12.so i dont really know what you're asking?
Click to expand...
They have a decent schedule ahead, FBG's have them as the 3rd best Defense going forward but honestly it seems you are looking at how teams have scored in the past in your rankings and I agree that that is good logic for the teams you have rated that will play the panthers or cardinals etc. but teams like the Bears for example or better yet the Chargers may not have a cushy rest of the way schedule. Right now the Bears, Ravens and Chargers are all on my waivers. I am considering grabbing the Bears and Ravens though. :blackdot: for future reference.
Click to expand...
If a top defense is available, then grab them. This thread is for the few of us who roll with no defense and just pick up whatever junk is left on waivers
 
Good stuff. I do this analysis every year all year. Occasionally it works out well, of course sometimes it backfires.

Like this past week, everyone and myself considered Tampa to be the hot defense pickup because they were playing crappy Carolina. Tampa scored 6 in our league, lower than the other defense on my roster (Jets = 7) and the defense I dropped to get Tampa (Seattle = 9).

Basically it seems whenever I think I certain defense is a "lock", they aren't. Like this week I dropped Tampa and picked up Baltimore. We'll see how that turns out.

 
kinghill said:
Good stuff. I do this analysis every year all year. Occasionally it works out well, of course sometimes it backfires.Like this past week, everyone and myself considered Tampa to be the hot defense pickup because they were playing crappy Carolina. Tampa scored 6 in our league, lower than the other defense on my roster (Jets = 7) and the defense I dropped to get Tampa (Seattle = 9).Basically it seems whenever I think I certain defense is a "lock", they aren't. Like this week I dropped Tampa and picked up Baltimore. We'll see how that turns out.
Click to expand...
However, you avoided having a Chiefs get you a -5 or a Cards -1, or something similar. The idea on DST I think is to balance out you opponent and not surrender say a 10 point gap to them. In response to the OP, I have seen maybe 3-4 of these threads now and I am not sure I really see a viable reliable play for Week 16 outside of PIT (which let's face it few people have).ARI vs DAL - I have ARI and this made sense until this last week.Philly looks like a good play.... maybe. MIn can do things, but one of them is throw INT's. But if MIn is anywhere near a playoff spot they may be scoring.Jax vs WAS - one thing I've learned never bank on a bad defense to have a good day against a bad offense. San Diego, on the road, in the cold, in Cincy, vs an offense that can do things and looking to play spoiler. I have concerns.
 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
kinghill said:
Good stuff. I do this analysis every year all year. Occasionally it works out well, of course sometimes it backfires.Like this past week, everyone and myself considered Tampa to be the hot defense pickup because they were playing crappy Carolina. Tampa scored 6 in our league, lower than the other defense on my roster (Jets = 7) and the defense I dropped to get Tampa (Seattle = 9).Basically it seems whenever I think I certain defense is a "lock", they aren't. Like this week I dropped Tampa and picked up Baltimore. We'll see how that turns out.
Click to expand...
However, you avoided having a Chiefs get you a -5 or a Cards -1, or something similar. The idea on DST I think is to balance out you opponent and not surrender say a 10 point gap to them. In response to the OP, I have seen maybe 3-4 of these threads now and I am not sure I really see a viable reliable play for Week 16 outside of PIT (which let's face it few people have).ARI vs DAL - I have ARI and this made sense until this last week.Philly looks like a good play.... maybe. MIn can do things, but one of them is throw INT's. But if MIn is anywhere near a playoff spot they may be scoring.Jax vs WAS - one thing I've learned never bank on a bad defense to have a good day against a bad offense. San Diego, on the road, in the cold, in Cincy, vs an offense that can do things and looking to play spoiler. I have concerns.
Click to expand...
Just have to wait it out. Only a few teams get the Pittsburghs or the Jets of the world. We on the other hand draft sleepers and value picks in the mid to later rounds why everyone else takes defenses. Our teams usually turn out better, therefore we just need our defense to somewhat match theirs each week. Wait and see, its possible Dallas turns to McGhee by then, a teams starter may go down. A LT may tear his ACL opening up the sacks. I recommend the Chiefs in 11, Cleveland or Washington in 12, and Seattle in 13 and see how it goes from there.
 
What is with people still thinking Kitna is going to get pulled by the end of the season? Yeah he might get pulled, for ROMO. Jerry Jones has been quoted as saying that McGhee poses no threat to Kitna's starting job, and I don't see that changing. I am in the camp that believes Romo has a good chance of coming back week 15 no matter their record, or quality of Kitna's play.

As for someone saying PIT is the only good week 16 play, I think that Baltimore vs. Cleveland could be another good matchup. I am personally going with Cleveland week 14 vs. Buffalo, Cardinals week 15 vs. the Panthers, and Baltimore week 16 vs. the Browns. Baltimore is the only defense I intend to keep all year, so hopefully no one has the same plan as me.

 
paulbertini said:
bushisdaman said:
paulbertini said:
bushisdaman said:
I suprised the Giants arent in your rankings
Click to expand...
The Giants Defense has scored 87 Points in my league. and The Giants Offense is averaging 23.4 points per game, and have given up the least amount of sacks in the NFL at 12.so i dont really know what you're asking?
Click to expand...
They have a decent schedule ahead, FBG's have them as the 3rd best Defense going forward but honestly it seems you are looking at how teams have scored in the past in your rankings and I agree that that is good logic for the teams you have rated that will play the panthers or cardinals etc. but teams like the Bears for example or better yet the Chargers may not have a cushy rest of the way schedule. Right now the Bears, Ravens and Chargers are all on my waivers. I am considering grabbing the Bears and Ravens though. :shrug: for future reference.
Click to expand...
If a top defense is available, then grab them. This thread is for the few of us who roll with no defense and just pick up whatever junk is left on waivers
Click to expand...
I picked up the Giants when someone dropped them for a bye week fill in but still thinking of dropping them to go DTBC. They just gave up 33 points to Jon Kitna, they're middle of the road in scoring this year (#15 - 15, 0, 0, 20, 9, 9, 4, B, 8, 2), and their schedule for weeks 11-16 is:@Phi Jac Was @Min Phi @GB Not sure how they're ranked at #3 for the rest of the year.
 
For teams starting the CHI defense most weeks, CLE lines up well to cover their two tough match-ups -- Week 12 at home versus PHI, and Week 14 at home versus NE.

A CHI/CLE pairing the rest of the season looks like this:

Week 12: CHI vs. PHI/CLE vs. CAR

Week 13: CHI @ DET/CLE @ MIA

Week 14: CHI vs. NE/CLE @ BUF

Week 15: CHI @ MIN/CLE @ CIN

Week 16: CHI vs. NYJ/CLE vs. BAL

Honorable mention goes to OAK, who are at home versus MIA in Week 12 and on the road at JAC Week 14.

 
For anybody who has TEN as their DEF, how much longer are u keeping them in your roster? I am thinking of dropping them soon. This might be the last week they have a decent matchup. thoughts?

 
Great thread! Big <_< to the OP. You guys inspired me to sign CLE and stash them for next week. Already had KC for this week, but this gives me the KC/CLE combo going forward.

Owners in my league tend to only roster one defense at a time, especially after bye weeks, which leaves lots of options on the waiver wire for a DTBC junkie like me. :yes:

 
Agree. Im not jumping ship yet. They only really had 1 bad week and 1 ok week. they get one more chance then I play the waiver wire game. every defense has had 1-2 bad games. I cant forget yet that the Titans and how great they were for 8 games. but again if they dont have a good game this week then thats a trend and time to jump ship.

emge said:
For anybody who has TEN as their DEF, how much longer are u keeping them in your roster? I am thinking of dropping them soon. This might be the last week they have a decent matchup. thoughts?
Click to expand...
 
Agree. Im not jumping ship yet. They only really had 1 bad week and 1 ok week. they get one more chance then I play the waiver wire game. every defense has had 1-2 bad games. I cant forget yet that the Titans and how great they were for 8 games. but again if they dont have a good game this week then thats a trend and time to jump ship.

emge said:
For anybody who has TEN as their DEF, how much longer are u keeping them in your roster? I am thinking of dropping them soon. This might be the last week they have a decent matchup. thoughts?
Click to expand...
 
Nice posting. My main money league uses yards allowed as a criteria as well, so I'm trying to put it all together in a spreadsheet before FA pickups close at kickoff.

 
Guess will be keeping the Titans. 15 pts in the first half already. there still the best D in my eyes. they get so many turnover and sacks.

 
Why don't I listen?

I texted Lammey this morning, asked him Dallas Vs Detroit or Cleveland Vs Jaguars. He told me to play Cleveland, but nooooooooooooooo, I had to play Dallas.

As of right now, Cleveland has TWENTY FIVE points. Dallas? Five.

Ugh.

 
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CLE doin work. Picking them up one week early then gambling with this week too.....looking great and I am really excited to see them against CAR

 
I had picked up Cleveland for week 12, but thought I'd throw it out there for his opinion. I'm sitting here dumbfounded.

 
Looking ahead to using Arizona defense at Carolina in week 15. Arizona's defense looks so bad, but I think Carolina's offense is even worse.

 
What are everyone's thoughts now that the playoffs are here?

I have week 14 off, but for week 15, Dodds says Vikings against Chicago (of the available options in my league) but I am thinking of taking CAR vs ARZ at home.

Week 16, I have the Jets going against CHI.

Anyone watching the weather report and taking a team in a snow bowl?

 
Hurl Bruce said:
What are everyone's thoughts now that the playoffs are here?

I have week 14 off, but for week 15, Dodds says Vikings against Chicago (of the available options in my league) but I am thinking of taking CAR vs ARZ at home.

Week 16, I have the Jets going against CHI.

Anyone watching the weather report and taking a team in a snow bowl?
Click to expand...
YepI like the browns in the snow against the Bengals or Visa versa.

 
Hurl Bruce said:
What are everyone's thoughts now that the playoffs are here?I have week 14 off, but for week 15, Dodds says Vikings against Chicago (of the available options in my league) but I am thinking of taking CAR vs ARZ at home.Week 16, I have the Jets going against CHI.Anyone watching the weather report and taking a team in a snow bowl?
Click to expand...
I'm with you in starting Carolina D in week 15. I also picked up Dallas to play against the Cards in week 16. I had the Jets starting last week, and it's a minor miracle I didn't lose because of their -1 performance. I think it's smarter at this point to go against weak offenses, instead of starting "great" defenses. I hope I am correct in this thinking...
 
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