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I'm craving some DTBC analysis (1 Viewer)

Hey PR,

Obviously last year it was a home run. The DTBC ended up scoring more FP/G than all 32 teams in the NFL, and at a pretty low draft price. I can't promise those same results again, but look for the article in second week of August.

 
Chase Stuart said:
Hey PR,Obviously last year it was a home run. The DTBC ended up scoring more FP/G than all 32 teams in the NFL, and at a pretty low draft price. I can't promise those same results again, but look for the article in second week of August.
Click to expand...
Thanks Chase. I put huge stock into that last year and it paid off with a championship. All the guys on draft night thought my weakness was my D's with TEN and MIN but I was laughing in the end (with a little help from TB in the playoffs). Based on your article from last year I tried putting my own together a couple weeks ago but I had trouble finding the offensive projections by team. Thanks for the all the hard work. Know that's it appreciated and valued.
 
Chase, when you do post the article, any chance you can include a seperate table/spreadsheet that doesn't factor in yds allowed? Our League Def settings don't use Yds Allowed and I think there would be at least some change in the rankings based on that.

 
The DTBC situation was an excellent example of why it's important for readers to subscribe to all the update information on this site, and also why the magazine can only be a snapshot of the time it was written and has to be used in conjunction with later updates.

The magazine article last year (presumably written around April, maybe a bit later) went for Denver and Miami as the DTBC combo. This would have had disastrous results - seven negative scoring weeks out of 16, and in my league would have ranked 31st compared with the 32 teams.

Happily, Chase updated the advice in August and the rest is history. But it's worth emphasising how much things can change over the summer, and that's why you have to stay on top of what's going on in July and August. An unexpected injury here or there, or even an unexpected unretirement from a franchise QB, can totally change not only individual player projections but also team defense ones.

Interestingly, there was no DTBC article in this year's mag, but there was a QBBC one. My guess is that Chase reckons it's easier to locate likely vulnerable passing defenses in April than it is to highlight likely weak offenses. But I could be wrong.

 
Lord Lucan said:
The DTBC situation was an excellent example of why it's important for readers to subscribe to all the update information on this site, and also why the magazine can only be a snapshot of the time it was written and has to be used in conjunction with later updates.The magazine article last year (presumably written around April, maybe a bit later) went for Denver and Miami as the DTBC combo. This would have had disastrous results - seven negative scoring weeks out of 16, and in my league would have ranked 31st compared with the 32 teams.Happily, Chase updated the advice in August and the rest is history. But it's worth emphasising how much things can change over the summer, and that's why you have to stay on top of what's going on in July and August. An unexpected injury here or there, or even an unexpected unretirement from a franchise QB, can totally change not only individual player projections but also team defense ones.Interestingly, there was no DTBC article in this year's mag, but there was a QBBC one. My guess is that Chase reckons it's easier to locate likely vulnerable passing defenses in April than it is to highlight likely weak offenses. But I could be wrong.
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The current plan is to alternate DTBC and QBBC in the magazine. Either way, there will always be current QBBC and DTBC articles in August. :unsure:
 
Chase Stuart said:
Lord Lucan said:
The DTBC situation was an excellent example of why it's important for readers to subscribe to all the update information on this site, and also why the magazine can only be a snapshot of the time it was written and has to be used in conjunction with later updates.The magazine article last year (presumably written around April, maybe a bit later) went for Denver and Miami as the DTBC combo. This would have had disastrous results - seven negative scoring weeks out of 16, and in my league would have ranked 31st compared with the 32 teams.Happily, Chase updated the advice in August and the rest is history. But it's worth emphasising how much things can change over the summer, and that's why you have to stay on top of what's going on in July and August. An unexpected injury here or there, or even an unexpected unretirement from a franchise QB, can totally change not only individual player projections but also team defense ones.Interestingly, there was no DTBC article in this year's mag, but there was a QBBC one. My guess is that Chase reckons it's easier to locate likely vulnerable passing defenses in April than it is to highlight likely weak offenses. But I could be wrong.
Click to expand...
The current plan is to alternate DTBC and QBBC in the magazine. Either way, there will always be current QBBC and DTBC articles in August. :penalty:
Click to expand...
I have two drafts this weekend (I know... too early) so I'm really interested in who this year's teams will be. It appears most of the easiest schedules belong to teams with HIGH ADP's (Denver, Houston, Miami, NYJ, STL, etc). None of these defenses excite me and I believe their ADP's are justified. San Diego, New England and Jacksonville have comparatively easy schedules but will be drafted in the top ten. Seattle and Washington jump out at me a bit as possibilities (although Washington faces the NFC East teams six times). Any other opinions regarding which defenses will be value plays this year?
 
wsbelina said:
Chase Stuart said:
Lord Lucan said:
The DTBC situation was an excellent example of why it's important for readers to subscribe to all the update information on this site, and also why the magazine can only be a snapshot of the time it was written and has to be used in conjunction with later updates.The magazine article last year (presumably written around April, maybe a bit later) went for Denver and Miami as the DTBC combo. This would have had disastrous results - seven negative scoring weeks out of 16, and in my league would have ranked 31st compared with the 32 teams.Happily, Chase updated the advice in August and the rest is history. But it's worth emphasising how much things can change over the summer, and that's why you have to stay on top of what's going on in July and August. An unexpected injury here or there, or even an unexpected unretirement from a franchise QB, can totally change not only individual player projections but also team defense ones.Interestingly, there was no DTBC article in this year's mag, but there was a QBBC one. My guess is that Chase reckons it's easier to locate likely vulnerable passing defenses in April than it is to highlight likely weak offenses. But I could be wrong.
Click to expand...
The current plan is to alternate DTBC and QBBC in the magazine. Either way, there will always be current QBBC and DTBC articles in August. :confused:
Click to expand...
I have two drafts this weekend (I know... too early) so I'm really interested in who this year's teams will be. It appears most of the easiest schedules belong to teams with HIGH ADP's (Denver, Houston, Miami, NYJ, STL, etc). None of these defenses excite me and I believe their ADP's are justified. San Diego, New England and Jacksonville have comparatively easy schedules but will be drafted in the top ten. Seattle and Washington jump out at me a bit as possibilities (although Washington faces the NFC East teams six times). Any other opinions regarding which defenses will be value plays this year?
Click to expand...
Jets/Miami/Denver look like a recipe for a good pair. :shock:
 
wsbelina said:
Chase Stuart said:
Lord Lucan said:
The DTBC situation was an excellent example of why it's important for readers to subscribe to all the update information on this site, and also why the magazine can only be a snapshot of the time it was written and has to be used in conjunction with later updates.The magazine article last year (presumably written around April, maybe a bit later) went for Denver and Miami as the DTBC combo. This would have had disastrous results - seven negative scoring weeks out of 16, and in my league would have ranked 31st compared with the 32 teams.Happily, Chase updated the advice in August and the rest is history. But it's worth emphasising how much things can change over the summer, and that's why you have to stay on top of what's going on in July and August. An unexpected injury here or there, or even an unexpected unretirement from a franchise QB, can totally change not only individual player projections but also team defense ones.Interestingly, there was no DTBC article in this year's mag, but there was a QBBC one. My guess is that Chase reckons it's easier to locate likely vulnerable passing defenses in April than it is to highlight likely weak offenses. But I could be wrong.
Click to expand...
The current plan is to alternate DTBC and QBBC in the magazine. Either way, there will always be current QBBC and DTBC articles in August. :D
Click to expand...
I have two drafts this weekend (I know... too early) so I'm really interested in who this year's teams will be. It appears most of the easiest schedules belong to teams with HIGH ADP's (Denver, Houston, Miami, NYJ, STL, etc). None of these defenses excite me and I believe their ADP's are justified. San Diego, New England and Jacksonville have comparatively easy schedules but will be drafted in the top ten. Seattle and Washington jump out at me a bit as possibilities (although Washington faces the NFC East teams six times). Any other opinions regarding which defenses will be value plays this year?
Click to expand...
Writing DTBC once means you have to strike a tough balance between getting the best info out there (which means waiting as long as possible) and getting it out to as many people as possible (which means publishing it as early as possible). Unfortunately, it won't be ready by this weekend.That said, I do think the Jets D -- outside of notions about their schedule -- make for a very nice sleeper team. They've got six legitimate players that could be top 10 players at their position. Revis and Rhodes will make a Pro Bowl soon, perhaps this year. Harris was fantastic last year. Jenkins looks revitalized right now, and he's a former All Pro that's got his weight under control. And then the two edge rushers, Gholston and Pace. Both are making a gazillion dollars, so we'll see if they can live up to their potential.
 
Chase Stuart said:
Hey PR,Obviously last year it was a home run. The DTBC ended up scoring more FP/G than all 32 teams in the NFL, and at a pretty low draft price. I can't promise those same results again, but look for the article in second week of August.
Click to expand...
Who was it last year?
 
Second on an option that excludes yards allowed. Looking forward to the article. By the way, where will I find it in the "Articles" section of the website? A gerneral suggestion is it would make it easier if articles were dated with the year as well as the month and date.

 
Chase Stuart said:
Christo said:
Chase Stuart said:
Hey PR,

Obviously last year it was a home run. The DTBC ended up scoring more FP/G than all 32 teams in the NFL, and at a pretty low draft price. I can't promise those same results again, but look for the article in second week of August.
Click to expand...
Who was it last year?
Click to expand...
Min/Ten.
Click to expand...
Which turned out to be just about all MIN after the year started. :thumbup: I credit that article to winning my league last year with some of those absurd early weeks.
 
jcab2000 said:
Chase Stuart said:
Christo said:
Chase Stuart said:
Hey PR,

Obviously last year it was a home run. The DTBC ended up scoring more FP/G than all 32 teams in the NFL, and at a pretty low draft price. I can't promise those same results again, but look for the article in second week of August.
Click to expand...
Who was it last year?
Click to expand...
Min/Ten.
Click to expand...
Which turned out to be just about all MIN after the year started. :shrug: I credit that article to winning my league last year with some of those absurd early weeks.
Click to expand...
I stopped writing after week 14 last season, so here's the link to the last last Goose Chase article of the season. Here's what I wrote then:
Season to date DTBC points: 226 FP, 16.14 FP/G, 1st overall (Minnesota is 1st among NFL teams at 13.387 FP/G; Seattle is second at 13.23)
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Now Minnesota was terrific, but the Titans certainly had some value there, too. The last two weeks the combo would score 6 and 17 points respectively, leaving the DTBC at 249 FP. That's 16 games worth (since there's no fantasy week 17), which means we can compare the committee to all real NFL teams that actually did play 16 games.The top DT was San Diego at 224 FP. Minnesota actually ranked 5th, thanks to a terrible week 17, with 184 FP. At 12th was Jacksonville with 167 FP.

So the committee provided 82 points of VBD value, which would have ranked the DTBC as the 14th best fantasy performer, slotting in between Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald.

I doubt the DTBC will ever have another year like that again, but considering the Vikings and Titans were very late draft picks, that worked out incredibly well for anyone who was lucky enough to grab them. Hopefully well enough to overcome the problems they might have had at QBBC :goodposting: .

 
The combo was huge for me as well, I love this article. Any chance we'll see it before the 16th (my draft is early this year).

Thanks

 
IIRC, Minn DT had a few early weeks where they were the top performer out of all positions. It was almost Marshall Faulk-like. :thumbup:

 
Looks like the Colts and the Bills are the lucky combo, but here is the critical question:

Were these numbers run before or after Favre became a Jet?

 
Chase, the Ind-Buf choice was from Clayton's article just posted today. He uses SOS to determine his DTBC but I'm not a big fan of using preseason SOS for anything.

I like yours a lot more because you actually use the in depth team-by-team projections.

 
TheHosers said:
Chase, the Ind-Buf choice was from Clayton's article just posted today. He uses SOS to determine his DTBC but I'm not a big fan of using preseason SOS for anything.I like yours a lot more because you actually use the in depth team-by-team projections.
Click to expand...
Oops. I guess I should have checked the front of the page. :confused:Clayton's stuff is good, but yes, we go at it from different angles. Obviously he has an SOS for every position which is pretty awesome. I don't have the Bills/Colts ranking very high, but that's because he gives the Colts a lot of credit for having a really good defense. My system doesn't work the same way, so you'd expect different results.
 
Chachi said:
Rolling with a Cowboys/Seahawks combo this year, almost every week is juicy.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure why we disagree so strongly, but I've got Dal/Sea as a well below average committee. You'd expect better synergy with two random teams. It's not an awful schedule, but they play a ton of mid-level offenses.
 
Chase Stuart said:
Chachi said:
Rolling with a Cowboys/Seahawks combo this year, almost every week is juicy.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure why we disagree so strongly, but I've got Dal/Sea as a well below average committee. You'd expect better synergy with two random teams. It's not an awful schedule, but they play a ton of mid-level offenses.
Click to expand...
We get points in our league for Special Teams so the Burleson/Pacman returns might be getting me some points there. Here's the schedule I'll have, week 14 will likely be grab another team (Steelers or Patriots, ouch). You're right, I'm sure there are better committees, I also put in consideration that the defenses themselves are two of the better ones. Bills, 49ers, Rams, Redskins, Giants, Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, Eagles, Dolphins, 49ers, Seahawks, Steelers, Rams, Jets
 
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