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that is a high price to pay.
Just read that story. What an idiot.
I guess he is just one of those guys that will never learn. If he is convicted of this he will most likely serve jail time because he is currently on 3 years probation.I used to defend Lynch but there is really no other way to put it, the guy is an idiot.
Fixed.
with the arrest, maybe not. 
I wouldn't give Smith and Flacco for Charles but that's just me.I always hate posting in these because I haven't traded for them yet and even though I have most in one league, I have 2 other leagues to try to acquire them in. But I'll post one player at each position I'll either be keeping or target at their current price:
Somehow I envisioned this thread as more of a "who are you looking to pick up in your Dynasty league" based on buy low, good value, etc.. I listed the Charles trade offer in the hopes of getting the ball rolling, not intending to start a Lynch is an idiot / the offer you received was ridiculous, hi-jack of my own thread.
Anyone willing to share their targets for the off season?
I wouldn't yet, McDaniels is too stupid to know how to use him. Target him next season when he gets off to another bad start and his value bottoms out.I'm gunning for Bowe, Felix Jones, and Henne everywhere I can. These are all guys their owners may have soured on a bit, I find those guys are easier to acquire than guys with upside that haven't been given their opportunity yet but should next season (i.e. Jacoby Jones, Jared Cook, etc.). Forgotten guys coming off serious injuries are ones I like to gamble on too, people like Laurent Robinson, Leon Washington, and Harry Douglas. These guys were going to get an opportunity before getting hurt, as long as they come back healthy they will get that same opportunity.
I am assuming Marshall is gone, which leaves Royal as the apparent WR1 by default unless you think Gaffney will be that guy, or that a draft pick or free agent will - which is certainly not an outlandish thought. However, my feeling is that Royal is the guy if Marshall is not there, and that makes him worth a late 1st rounder IMO.az_prof said:
Royal isn't a #1, and wont perform like a #1 IMO. Sell.
FWIW, McDaniels said after the season that it was borderline criminal how badly he misused Eddie Royal. Direct quote from his season-ending press conference: “I know that I’m frustrated and disappointed that we couldn’t do more in terms of using Eddie Royal. We’re going to work hard to try to fix that and get that to change dramatically going into next season.”At receiver, I'd be looking to buy Antonio Bryant, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith South, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Chaz Schilens, because their production recently hasn't been anywhere near their talent level. I think this offseason will be the last chance to buy James Jones, Andre Caldwell, Steve Breaston, and Legede Naanee on the cheap. If Favre retires again, I would pounce in a millisecond on Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. Kenny Britt's not a "buy low" since he actually looked pretty good this last year, but he might be a "buy lower than he should be going for" still. These guys aren't sure things, but you could probably get 3 or 4 of these guys for the same price as a "name brand" receiver, and with WRs I'd rather shotgun under-the-radar prospects than pay for quality unless I'm buying an uberstud (Fitz/AJ/CJ/Wayne/VJax/Roddy/etc). Actually, speaking of VJax and Roddy, I'd look into those two guys, too. I've got them both in my top 6 dynasty, and it's possible that they're both flying under the radar in your leagues as people keep thinking about the "sexier" names.At runningback, I'm not as big of a fan of the "shotgun prospects" method, so I'd be looking to buy quality. Before Lynch decided to ruin his life, he would be the #1 star on my buy-low list, since he had all the talent of a Moreno/Forte/Grant/Benson with half the price. Now that he's on my "not with a 10-foot pole" list, I'll lead off with Jonathan Stewart. Yeah, your last chance to steal him passed about 5 weeks ago when he started getting a workhorse workload and giving his fantasy owners visions of things to come... but I think he's a top5-top10 dynasty RB, and it's possible you can still get him for less than that. Steven Jackson is still one of the 3 most talented RBs in the league, but his owners might be getting really sick of the Rams offense and looking to sell. Pierre Thomas is an awesome high-upside, high-risk purchase. Darren McFadden was a higher draft pick than Knowshon Moreno, has fewer career carries than Knowshon Moreno, and has a higher career ypc despite playing in a worse offense, but Moreno still carries a high retail price while McFadden is a bargain-basement guy right now. A very low-risk gamble, in my mind, provided you can get him on the cheap. Really, at the RB position, though, I think the smart play right now is overpaying and landing some studs. I don't think this year's draft class will wind up being all that special, and I don't think next year's will, either, so the only real chance you have at landing a difference maker is buying one at full price. Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, or Maurice Jones-Drew might be crazy-expensive... but just because they're expensive doesn't mean they aren't worth it.At tight end, I'd be looking into getting James Casey before Houston decides what to do with Owen Daniels. Jason Witten is far more talented than his current price tag. Antonio Gates is such a stud that he's always a worthwhile purchase. The time to buy Finley was midseason, but there's always a chance that his owner still isn't valuing him as a top-5 or top-8 kind of guy. If I could trade a "name-brand" TE (Chris Cooley, Zach Miller, John Carlson) for Finley, I would in a heartbeat.az_prof said:
I am very curious of your reasoning on the Favre comment. It seems backwards to me.
If Favre retires, Harvin and Rice owners will likely devalue them, SSOG thinks those owners would be wrong. Re Harvin, I agree. I think Rice's value is more tied to Favre though. This is also why I dealt Rice in the league I owned both Rice and Harvin though once I was (basically) eliminated from this season's playoffs.I'm with a lot of what he wrote. I own Casey everywhere and am trying to get J Stew, Finley, Nanee, James Jones everywhere. Been trying to get J Stew for a while and after Decemner's performances can probably give up on that now. Others he mentioned too, but notably those guys.
I like what you're saying on the WRs, 4 of the first 10 you mention are on my team already.
I traded Naanee a year ago and wish I hadn't.
Good bet he doesn't get the opportunity, I think Cincy's #2 next season is not currently on the team. The passing game never really emerged this year, but it lost any hope once Chris Henry (RIP) went down. There's no threat to attract attention from Chad. The game plan's the same against them every week. Double Chad and make the Bungles go underneath to everyone else since no one else is a threat > 10 yds down the field.
The fact that it seems backward to you is the reasoning behind my Favre comment. When Favre is gone, people are going to automatically devalue both Harvin and Rice. My feelings are that they won't be any less talented next week than they are this week, so if they're cheaper next week than they are this week, I'm going to look into acquiring them. Rice is 23. Harvin is 21. Who their QB is next year matters, but it pales into insignificance compared to the careers that are stretching out ahead of them.The early game today reminded me that I totally forgot about Dustin Keller in my earlier list. I had him as a top 5 dynasty TE before the season. He's still a fantastic talent.
Cowboys coaches have finally figured out Felix is wayyyy better than Barber. I dont think Barber is hurt right now vs. the Eagles.
I'm a bit confused- is reminding you of Housh necessarily a bad thing? I don't know if McFadden's a feature back or not, but I don't think there's anyone else anywhere near his current price that has as good of odds of becoming a quality fantasy RB as McFadden does. I don't know if you can say that Caldwell's blown his opportunity- he's a second year receiver. In his second season, VJax had 27 receptions. Meachem had 12/289. Miles Austin had 5/76. Sidney Rice had 15/141. Writing off a WR after his second season seems to be a very, very good way to make sure you're buying high and selling low. In fact, historically, perhaps the best time to buy WRs is after they've put up uninspiring numbers in their second season.As for Evans... I think he's one of the 20 most talented WRs in the entire NFL and a legit NFL WR1. He's been mired in the massive black hole of suck that is the Buffalo passing game. He's only 28, so he's got a lot of football left to go. Most Evans owners would probably let him go for peanuts right now.On the whole, do the guys on my list have a lot of warts? Yes, most certainly... but their pricetag already reflects those warts. I wouldn't necessarily trade quality assets for these guys, but I'd definitely be trying to acquire them on the cheap.
Breaston ~ Housh, producing well due to his situation, not due to his talent level. I think he's going to demand to get paid elsewhere when his contract runs out and he'll underwhelm like Housh has. If I knew Warner was for sure coming back for another season and Boldin was for sure gone I would make a play for Breaston with plans on moving him after he produces well in 2010. I don't play this game with if statements though, so I'm not risking it.Consider my writing off Caldwell a side effect of me never believing in him in the first place. If whatever the guy the Bungles bring in this offseason doesn't pan out Caldwell may get another shot. If we're talking 3rd year WR's that haven't done anything yet to take a flier on I'd prefer all of Harry Douglas, James Hardy, Jordy Nelson, and Early Doucet to Caldwell. McFadden and Evans...well...the way I construct my teams is to fill them with guys that could be great players at their position. Not today, not tomorrow, and maybe not for several years...but someday...maybe. Neither of these guys fit the bill. At best they're going to be mediocre, I don't see the point in rostering them when I could be rostering the next Miles Austin, Mike Sims Walker, Tony Romo, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, etc. instead.
Ah, I see. I thought you were saying their value would be higher if Favre retires. My bad.
How long have you been watching football and playing fantasy football? Would love to see how Evans doesn't fit into this...
Caldwell is 6 feet and plenty tall to play outside. He ran a 4.37 a the combine - which is flat out fast - and he is athletic with good hands. You can dislike him for any reasons you want to, but they shouldn't be that you think he is a slot-guy without big play potential. He didn't hardly play as a rookie behind 85, Hoosh and Henry with Fitzgerald at QB all year, so this was really his year 1 - and he played behind 85, Coles and Henry.
Darren McFadden is a 22-year old #4 overall draft pick. And I'm not talking about a "Technically #4 overall, but Al Davis is secretly a moron and he reached big-time" draft pick, I'm talking about a guy who all the talking heads and many of the front offices agreed was worthy of such a lofty selection. I question how McFadden DOESN'T fit the mold of a player who "could be great at his position". Do I think he's the next Chris Johnson or something? Absolutely not... but at his current cost, he represents nothing but upside.As for Lee Evans... I guess it depends on how you define greatness. Does 1300 yards, 8 scores, and a #7 fantasy finish qualify as greatness? Because Lee Evans has been there, done that, and bought the T-Shirt- with J.P. Freaking Losman throwing him the ball, no less. The difference between Evans 2006 and Rice 2009 is 1 reception for 20 yards. That's literally the only statistical difference between the two. Meanwhile, one of your "could be great" candidates, MSW, put up 870/7 receiving this year. Evans put up 840/9... AS A ROOKIE. On a team that threw for 3000 yards (Jacksonville this year threw for 3600). I know, I know, MSW missed two games... but Evans was a rookie. On a team that was a dropped pass away from failing to break 3000 passing yards.You want a guy who could one day have a great fantasy season? I'd think an under-30 WR who already has a top-10 fantasy season under his belt and who is one of the most talented WRs in the entire NFL would be a pretty good place to start.
If one thing has been clear to me, it is that Evans is NOT a legit NFL WR1. He needs another big-time WR on the other side to flourish. I believer his 3rd year breakout numbers is more the outlier, and not the norm if we look back at his career 4-5 years from now.
I believe a slot receiver is what he's destined to be (& what he's best suited for). An NFL WR3 is Caldwell's ceiling, IMO. I don't particularly like him for FF due to his limited upside. I tend to shy away from WRs like Caldwell. Long story short, I prefer to roster WRs with higher upside.
I have strong opinions about most players, but especially Big 10 ones. I've been watching Evans since he was 18. Evans is electric, but incredibly inconsistent, and he's done nothing to lead me to believe otherwise. I've watched the same player the entire decade with little development.Pass.
And all those front offices missed on one very key piece of McFadden's game that's going to prevent him from ever being that special back, his inability to gain yards after first contact. At best he's Reggie Bush in a lousy offense.
Which one? I may be crazy, but from what little I saw of him I think the Jags version has a higher ceiling.
I like the Jags' version as well, but yeah, you're crazy. He's all speed and can't block a lick.The Raiders' version could have been good for 1,000 yards this year with a real QB.
The problem is I don't see a real QB in the Raiders site.
If everyone thought the Raiders were going to get a legit QB this offseason, you couldn't get him at a good price.
How cheap do you think he is going for? I just saw him purchased for Sims Walker in one of my leagues. If that's his going rate then I am going to wait for him to get significantly cheaper before inquiring.
That's the reason to target Mike Vick.MAC_32 said:
I'm a big fan of Football Outsiders, and was one of the first guys around here advocating using their stats in fantasy football analysis... but their receiver numbers are mostly useless. The RB and QB numbers tend to correlate well with reality, but the WR numbers don't. They heavily overrated WRs who are second options to established studs, and heavily underrated the established studs, mostly because they don't account for coverage. It's the same reason why nickle and dime CBs tend to put up better per-play stats than starting CBs.With that said, Jacoby for a 3rd is a fantastic trade. I've mentioned in the dynasty super-thread that I'm a fan of under-the-radar WRs who function as high-level punt returners, because the skillset really seems to translate very well to offense (see Wes Welker, Santana Moss, Steve Smiff, Steve Breaston, even Devin Hester is a pretty darn good WR for a guy who never played the position before 3 years ago).
