What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Can you analyze these later round TEs? (1 Viewer)

whodeywhodey

Footballguy
A lot of people (including myself) refuse to overpay for TEs. I usually wait until a later round when the value is there to pick one up.

I have searched and haven't found anything discussing the later round TEs.

Here's a list of the typical TEs that I am seeing in the late rounds. Your comment would be appreciated.

LJ Smith

Randy McMichael

Dallas Clark

Heath Miller

Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels

Tony Scheffler

Desmond Clark

Daniel Graham

Eric Johnson

Zach Miller

Ben Troupe

Marcedes Lewis

All these players can typically be had in the 10th round or much later. And some of us are going to be grabbing backup TEs in deeper leagues. So I would love some commentary on these TEs (and others).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Like Graham in Denver. Check out the Broncos camp reports and he seems to be the man over Scheffler (sp?) The WR corps seems a bit banged up and even though Henry will be a monster they need to throw the ball a little to keep the Defense honest.

Also like a guy you didn't list: Bo Scaife

Think he will be the #1 in TEN over Troupe. He has a nice history in college and a good rapport with VY (plus they work in the off season together.) In most leagues I bet you can get this guy in one of the last rounds and he will represent nice value.

IF Witten gets hurt, Fasano will be a MONSTER -- you can't bank on a guy getting hurt, but this guy is (IMO) the best #2 TE on his team in the NFL.

 
That late, my theory is you should swing for the fences. I'd rather see Smith a little healthier before considering him this year, but depending on how late he is, he could be great value. This late, I want to target guys that are on teams with weaker WR corps. That's a pretty good situation for fantasy TE success. The two I love here are Owen Daniels and Marcedes Lewis. Daniels was a surprise last year, and on a team short of standout WRs (Except Johnson of course), he should be a 2nd or 3rd option and see plenty of targets. The same with Lewis. If healthy this year, there's no way he's not the starting TE. George Wrighster ended up being the 14th most targeted TE last season in this offense, with 64 (and that was with the other TE's snagging 30). Lewis would be worth a shot IMO.

Everybody else scares me a bit.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
That late, my theory is you should swing for the fences.
I know what you are saying. I hate not having a TE and the ones left scare me too. But it just seems like in some leagues the TEs go way too early.So Daniels huh? Would you still go with the Texans TE if you had other Texans players? That offense scares me a little.
 
A lot of people (including myself) refuse to overpay for TEs. I usually wait until a later round when the value is there to pick one up.

I have searched and haven't found anything discussing the later round TEs.

Here's a list of the typical TEs that I am seeing in the late rounds. Your comment would be appreciated.

LJ Smith- injured, Id stay away

Randy McMichael- too many weapons in STL to make an impact

Dallas Clark- never been a top 10, addition of Gonzalez hurts him

Heath Miller- should score some TDs but not alot of catches

Greg Olsen- could be a stud, definitely a sleeper

Owen Daniels- I cant see him getting the goalline looks he got last year

Tony Scheffler- despite what everyone hopes, he is NOT the starter

Desmond Clark- should split time

Daniel Graham- hes moving higher up my draft board, starter and making a ton of money

Eric Johnson- nice sleeper if he can stay healthy

Zach Miller- doubt the OAK TE will get many opportunities

Ben Troupe- this is not Mike Heimerdinger's offense or McNairs love for TEs, plus Scaife went to school with Young

Marcedes Lewis- too many TEs in Jax for me too draft him

All these players can typically be had in the 10th round or much later. And some of us are going to be grabbing backup TEs in deeper leagues. So I would love some commentary on these TEs (and others).
So basically after the top 9 TEs Im saying the prospects are weak. I like Graham and Olsen the best of this group but no way would I want either of them as my TE1.
 
That late, my theory is you should swing for the fences.
I know what you are saying. I hate not having a TE and the ones left scare me too. But it just seems like in some leagues the TEs go way too early.

So Daniels huh? Would you still go with the Texans TE if you had other Texans players? That offense scares me a little.
They do, but the worst thing you can possibly do is follow the run. If everyone else reaches like that, best thing to do IMO is wait a while and cash in on some value picks. As far as Houston's offense, don't overthink the situation. MANY top TE's come from weak offenses. Plus, a different QB could improve the situation as well. I'm not trying to pimp Daniels here, as I'm certainly not going out of my way to target him in my drafts. All I"m saying is that he'll be one of those guys available for pennies, and he's definitely one of the ones I would target there if in need.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
They do, but the worst thing you can possibly do is follow the run. If everyone else reaches like that, best thing to do IMO is wait a while and cash in on some value picks.
Exactly. I wanted Cooley in the 9th round but he went a few picks before me. And the ones that I listed are the only ones left. I refuse to overpay as the rest of my team is solid. Right now maybe the best thing to do is to draft 2 sleeper TEs and hope that one of them hits. Maybe in round 13 or later.
 
Tony Scheffler was a beast towards the end of the season. I'm supposed to be scared because the Broncos signed Daniel "I've never had 40 catches in my career" Graham? Nope. He was signed for his blocking anyways. Teams can play with two tight ends in the offense. For a 15th round pick he's worth the risk.

Owen Daniels seems like a decent player too though it might be going off that one game he had. He is the starter so that should be worth something.

You shouldn't be so cheap with tight ends. If you have a decent team with Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez on it you're tough to beat. Waiting until the 9th round for a starter is beyond ridiculous. That's taking the term penny-wise and pound foolish to an extreme level.

 
You shouldn't be so cheap with tight ends. If you have a decent team with Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez on it you're tough to beat. Waiting until the 9th round for a starter is beyond ridiculous. That's taking the term penny-wise and pound foolish to an extreme level.
I disagree. If you see some sleepers out there, why wouldn't you wait? I mentioned this example in another thread about sleepers - in WItten's breakout year (04) I got him in the 13th round and he was the #3 tight end. If you don't see any sleepers late, then go early -- but I don't see how you can right it off as ridiculous.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You shouldn't be so cheap with tight ends. If you have a decent team with Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez on it you're tough to beat. Waiting until the 9th round for a starter is beyond ridiculous. That's taking the term penny-wise and pound foolish to an extreme level.
I disagree. If you see some sleepers out there, why wouldn't you wait? I mentioned this example in another thread about sleepers - in WItten's breakout year (04) I got him in the 13th round and he was the #3 tight end. If you don't see any sleepers late, then go early -- but I don't see how you can right it off as ridiculous.
Most of the time sleepers stay asleep. Just because you got lucky one year doesn't mean that's the best route to take all the time (or most of the time). I'm not saying you have to draft Gates or Gonzo and I'm not saying that you shouldn't draft sleepers either(You're better off doing both) but I don't think you should draft those players expecting too much because more often than not you're going to be disappointed. This applies to all positions. You wouldn't rely on a sleeper quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. Why not use that same methodology for the tight end position which is probably the most underrated in fantasy football.
 
Overall, the TE depth of the NFL has never been better. Those drafting can get a quality TE late this year for sure.

I like Randy McMichael, but he does come with question marks. He has averaged 633 yds and 4 tds with the lowly Dolphins the last 4 years, so getting away from them should help. Linehan stated that McMichael will be an every down TE, so Joe Klopfenstein shouldn't have much affect on McMichael. Of course he will be the 4th or 5th option in the St. Louis offense, so that doesn't help, but I like him in the Rams offense more than the Dolphins. McMichael is still young (28), so if he has his life in order he could make an immediate impact.

L.J. Smith is the best of the lot but he's obviously not over his hernia, so don't expect much from him in 2007 IMO.

Even with the loss of Tarik Glenn, I don't expect the Colts to throw any less to Dallas Clark. I like the replacements for Glenn (Johnson and Ugoh). Clark will have a nice season.

I like Olsen and Z Miller the rookie TEs, but neither will make an impact in 2007. Neither will Desmond Clark because of Greg Olsen.

Mercedes Lewis hasn't progressed like the Jags had hoped. He's talented, but so far, not so good.

Once Schefler returns, both he and Graham will cancel each other out. Jump on Graham early in the year however, then trade him after a couple great weeks.

Troupe is another who hasn't lived up to expectations. I don't expect him to make an impact in that offense in 2007 either.

Daniels to be pretty good. Hopefully he has healed from a shoulder injury that plagued him in the second half of 2006.

Eric Johnson could end up better than all of them, but he does have two things going against him, health and the number of weapons in New Orleans. However, Johnson is a great sleeper for 2007.

The Steelers threw more in 2006, but Miller didn't see that many targets. He is a great red zone TE, so if he could only catch more passes between the 20s, he could be a top 10 TE in 2007.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This applies to all positions. You wouldn't rely on a sleeper quarterback, running back, or wide receiver.

- actually, i might do it with a qb

Why not use that same methodology for the tight end position which is probably the most underrated in fantasy football.

- depends on your scoring -- in my non-ppr league, te's aren't that valuable; not much of a range in their scoring

Also, having a different opinion from the masses doesn't necessarily translate to being luck; and I'm not even taking credit for the Witten pick; I got it from reading these boards. :confused:
ETA: To answer the original question, I like McMichael and Daniels. And,shadyridr, in the drafts I've seen, Cooley is going in the 7th round.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Waiting until the 9th round for a starter is beyond ridiculous. That's taking the term penny-wise and pound foolish to an extreme level.
Absolutely incorrect. With the depth of quality TEs in the NFL now, it's foolish to draft a TE not named Gates early IMO.
I don't know that there are that many out there. Gates, Gonzo, Heap, Crumpler, Winslow, Cooley,Shockey and maybe Witten you could feel good about so that's 8 all gone before the 9th round. I have to see it from Davis so I won't anoint him yet. After that it's just scraping from the bottom of the barrel. More often than not that leads to having a disappointing player. Or maybe not disappointing since you shouldn't expect so much in the first place.I'm not saying that you should necessarily reach for players but to totally neglect a position (which I feel waiting that long to draft a tight end is definitely a case of) is just as bad in my opinion. It's one thing to say that you won't draft Antonio Gates in the 3rd round. It's another to not draft a good tight end at all hoping that a sleeper pans out.

 
If you're drafting late, go for the highest upside. A guy like Dallas Clark may put up some points for you, but his ceiling is low based on how he's been used in Indy; why waste a pick for a player who's only going to be 1-2 points per week better than someone you can pick up off the waiver wire? You're better off shooting for the fences, as someone put it.

Best options right now:

- Randy McMichael: Coach Linehan loved using him in Miami, and he was specifically brought in as a red-zone threat. The offense should be productive enough to get him plenty of yards in the middle of the field, too. Last year, Stephen Jackson caught 70 passes, while all Ram TEs combined for just 27 receptions; expect a more even distribution for 2007.

- Owen Daniels: Not too many other options in Houston. Schaub should be an upgrade at QB, and the offense probably isn't any worse than last year. If a rookie TE can finish at #14 overall, surely Daniels can improve on that in his second year.

- Daniel Graham: Scheffler is the faddish choice, but he hasn't even stepped foot on the field yet. With injury risks all over the WR corps, Graham should see plenty of action in the first month or two, and he'll be hard to displace even if Scheffler gets back to 100% at some point (which is far from a certainty) considering how Shanahan values blocking ability.

- Health Miller or Zach Miller: No one knows how their new coaching staffs will use them. Taking either is risky, but there's lots of potential.

- Bo Scaife: Has a rapport with Vince Young, and the WR corps is putrid, so he'll be well involved in the offense.

 
I'm not saying that you should necessarily reach for players but to totally neglect a position (which I feel waiting that long to draft a tight end is definitely a case of) is just as bad in my opinion. It's one thing to say that you won't draft Antonio Gates in the 3rd round. It's another to not draft a good tight end at all hoping that a sleeper pans out.
respectfully, i think the fallacy in your argument is equating "the herd's" rankings as correct. the majority is often, but not always, correct. if you have a te rated much higher than others do, which translates into a later round pick, you are not hoping that a sleeper pans out any more than the person who took a te earlier is. and you're risking less in a draft pick, though admitedly risking more in generally going with less of a track record...which, i guess is the part you're focusing on more. taking different approaches to drafting is what makes it fun,though, no? :rolleyes:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
abrecher said:
If you're drafting late, go for the highest upside. A guy like Dallas Clark may put up some points for you, but his ceiling is low based on how he's been used in Indy; why waste a pick for a player who's only going to be 1-2 points per week better than someone you can pick up off the waiver wire? You're better off shooting for the fences, as someone put it.Best options right now:- Randy McMichael: Coach Linehan loved using him in Miami, and he was specifically brought in as a red-zone threat. The offense should be productive enough to get him plenty of yards in the middle of the field, too. Last year, Stephen Jackson caught 70 passes, while all Ram TEs combined for just 27 receptions; expect a more even distribution for 2007.- Owen Daniels: Not too many other options in Houston. Schaub should be an upgrade at QB, and the offense probably isn't any worse than last year. If a rookie TE can finish at #14 overall, surely Daniels can improve on that in his second year.- Daniel Graham: Scheffler is the faddish choice, but he hasn't even stepped foot on the field yet. With injury risks all over the WR corps, Graham should see plenty of action in the first month or two, and he'll be hard to displace even if Scheffler gets back to 100% at some point (which is far from a certainty) considering how Shanahan values blocking ability.- Health Miller or Zach Miller: No one knows how their new coaching staffs will use them. Taking either is risky, but there's lots of potential.- Bo Scaife: Has a rapport with Vince Young, and the WR corps is putrid, so he'll be well involved in the offense.
I would not want to depend on any of these as a starter. I make it a point to get one of the top 8-9 this year.
 
Here is the other problem I have with drafting a TE early.

Based on my scoring system (1 pt per 10, 6 pts per TD) I have the players ranked in the following tiers

1. Gates 232

2. Heap 191

3. Shockey 189

4. Winslow 182

5. Gonzo 179

6. Cooley 164

7. Witten 154

8. VDavis 151

9. LJ Smith (if health) 143

10. Crumpler 137

11. Watson 133

12. All others <118

So the difference between Cooley (ADP 7.09) and the bottom tier guys is 46 points or about 3 points per week difference.

I'm just not willing to give up a 7th round pick to get someone like Cooley when there is only about a 3 pts per game difference from someone I could easily grab in the 12th.

 
Here is the other problem I have with drafting a TE early.Based on my scoring system (1 pt per 10, 6 pts per TD) I have the players ranked in the following tiers1. Gates 2322. Heap 1913. Shockey 1894. Winslow 1825. Gonzo 1796. Cooley 1647. Witten 1548. VDavis 1519. LJ Smith (if health) 14310. Crumpler 13711. Watson 13312. All others <118So the difference between Cooley (ADP 7.09) and the bottom tier guys is 46 points or about 3 points per week difference. I'm just not willing to give up a 7th round pick to get someone like Cooley when there is only about a 3 pts per game difference from someone I could easily grab in the 12th.
:thumbup: ....and exactly my point about TE depth outside of a select few (Gates, Heap, Gonzo etc.)
 
No love for Pollard? Seattle has tried to use the TE position in the past, only Stevens wasn't capable of catching the ball.

 
No love for Pollard? Seattle has tried to use the TE position in the past, only Stevens wasn't capable of catching the ball.
He's definitely on my radar, but I like Daniels and McMichael more. If I miss the earlier TEs, I could see taking two of these three (assuming the byes work)
 
I'm also targeting Bo Scaife but with each passing preseason game the buzz is getting out about him. I was going to wait until the last round to grab him but now might have to get him a round or 2 earlier. He'll get a ton of looks and Young loves him. Troupe is still nursing that injury.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top