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Peyton Hillis - dynasty prospects (1 Viewer)

Dragon1952

Dragon1952

Footballguy
There have been quite a few Hillis threads but mostly talking about 'going forward in 2010'. So forget about redraft, what are his prospects to have RB value in dynasty leagues in the future. He was mostly considered a FB in the past, so is he now a bona fide RB? Is this just temporary based on the situation in Cleveland and what happens when Hardesty is healthy. Could Hillis be a RB1 or RB1b on any other team in the future? Of course we know he 'could', but is it likely that's what happens? In a FF trade he could bring a very good player/prospect from a team looking to make a playoff run this year. So are people looking to cash in thinking this is a one time thing based on situation or are you keeping him thinking he can be at least a decent dynasty RB2 or RB3 for the next few years.

 
As long as he's healthy, then Hillis will certainly be in the game plan. However, I think Mangini and company would prefer to have another back to mix in. Watch and see what Mike Bell does over the next few games and I think you'll get an idea of what Hillis's future workload will look like. Hillis is very, very good NFL player, but I'm not so sure he will continue to be a #1 fantasy back in the coming years. Maybe a #2/flex back. If you can get a top 8 QB, a young #2 WR for him, solid prospect, etc... then yeah, I'd certainly move him.

ETA: If Mangini is the future coach in Cleveland. I think he will be, but it's certainly not set in stone.

 
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GreatLakesMike said:
As long as he's healthy, then Hillis will certainly be in the game plan. However, I think Mangini and company would prefer to have another back to mix in. Watch and see what Mike Bell does over the next few games and I think you'll get an idea of what Hillis's future workload will look like. Hillis is very, very good NFL player, but I'm not so sure he will continue to be a #1 fantasy back in the coming years. Maybe a #2/flex back. If you can get a top 8 QB, a young #2 WR for him, solid prospect, etc... then yeah, I'd certainly move him.ETA: If Mangini is the future coach in Cleveland. I think he will be, but it's certainly not set in stone.
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Agree with most of this, especially that Mangini would like to have another back in the mix. That said, I don't think the mediocre Mike Bell will be at all an indicator of Hillis' future value. That is, unless he starts getting more than the handful of carries per game that I expect he'll receive. If Bell gets more of a workload than that, then yes...panic.
 
After watching him a few times, I think he's far better than most give him credit for. People want to compare him to Alstott because he's big, white, and wears #40, but if you watch him, I don't see a guy who looks like Alstott when he's carrying the ball.

There are very few true every-down backs in the NFL, and long term, I don't think Hillis has the talent to be one of them. However, I do think he's got plenty of talent to be the primary 1st and 2nd down RB with the ability to catch passes as well. If you have an early down RB with some pass catching ability and a nose for the endzone, you've got at least a dynasty RB2. The Browns would be in a nice position next year if they could find a good 3rd down/change of pace back to supplement him, but I think he's done everything possible to earn a big piece of the pie heading into 2011.

If Hardesty is healthy, I'm sure he'll see time too. However, he had knee problems 3 of 4 years in college and already in the NFL. Hardesty staying healthy seems to be pretty unlikely at this point.

 
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I think the biggest risk is if Mangini is gone after the year then all bets are off on what a new coach will want to feature. Hardesty is a talented back and was capable of doing what Hillis is doing now had he not taken an unlucky shot to his knee in the preseason. I have no argument with FBG's current dynasty rankins putting him in the 30-40 range at RB. An argument can be made for more but he strikes me as a guy with more current than future value.

 
If Hardesty is his only future competition then he's got no worries. That guy has multiple ACL tears and a microfracture on his resume. He's played one full season in the last 3-4 years. That said, if Mangini does get fired, I dont see a different head coach entering next season with Hillis a his starting RB. Similar to LeRon McClain from 2008, most coaches will shy away from starting a FB unless they absolutely have to, which is what happened in Cleveland this year.

 
SayWhat? said:
GreatLakesMike said:
As long as he's healthy, then Hillis will certainly be in the game plan. However, I think Mangini and company would prefer to have another back to mix in. Watch and see what Mike Bell does over the next few games and I think you'll get an idea of what Hillis's future workload will look like. Hillis is very, very good NFL player, but I'm not so sure he will continue to be a #1 fantasy back in the coming years. Maybe a #2/flex back. If you can get a top 8 QB, a young #2 WR for him, solid prospect, etc... then yeah, I'd certainly move him.

ETA: If Mangini is the future coach in Cleveland. I think he will be, but it's certainly not set in stone.
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Agree with most of this, especially that Mangini would like to have another back in the mix. That said, I don't think the mediocre Mike Bell will be at all an indicator of Hillis' future value. That is, unless he starts getting more than the handful of carries per game that I expect he'll receive. If Bell gets more of a workload than that, then yes...panic.
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I didn't mean to imply that Bell would force Hillis into a committee, but I do think the Browns acquired Bell with definite plans of using him. Harrison couldn't be trusted, and James Davis (who was just released) simply couldn't get the job done. Bell at least offers a serviceable #2 RB. Let's see how many carries the coaches think Hillis can handle now that they have a serviceable #2 in the mix. As of now, Hillis's workload (rushing attempts) have been all over the place. Partly because he's been a little banged up, and partly because of the nature of the game. If Bell can help keep Hillis fresh, then I think we'll start to see a pattern. That pattern will hopefully tell us if Hillis is a 20 carry guy, a 15 carry guy, 12 carry, etc... you get my point.ETA: Hillis is a Mangini type player, so as long as Mangini is in town, Hillis will have a roster spot. Mangini reminds me of Bill Parcells in the fact that he wants big, bruising players that will basically beat and wear down opposing teams.

 
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GreatLakesMike said:
doubletrouble said:
Eric gone after this season so is Hillis....
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:lmao: While that might be true, I haven't seen any indication that Holmgren is chomping at the bit to replace Mangini. If Holmgren was dead set on getting rid of Mangini, then he could have done so last year. No one would have batted an eye.
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From what I read Holmgren has always been a believer in giving a coach more than one season to see if he can make it work. If Mangini shows no improvement this year, and so far there has been little, if any, improvement, then I think he's gone for sure.
 
todisco1 said:
GreatLakesMike said:
doubletrouble said:
Eric gone after this season so is Hillis....
Click to expand...
:lmao: While that might be true, I haven't seen any indication that Holmgren is chomping at the bit to replace Mangini. If Holmgren was dead set on getting rid of Mangini, then he could have done so last year. No one would have batted an eye.
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From what I read Holmgren has always been a believer in giving a coach more than one season to see if he can make it work. If Mangini shows no improvement this year, and so far there has been little, if any, improvement, then I think he's gone for sure.
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The Browns have improved, a lot. If wins and losses are the only criteria we're judging, then you have a point. And yes, I'm well aware that it's all about winning. At this point last year, the Browns had 0 wins. Add to that, the Browns currently have the 2nd toughest schedule in the league. There are winnable games down the road. Right now, I think Mangini has to get to 6 - 10, which is tough, but not out of the question.
 
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.

In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.

 
moderated said:
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.
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25-35 is pretty decent. That's in a range that includes Felix Jones, Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Bush, McFadden. If I have Hillis I'd be happy with that.
 
Dragon1952 said:
moderated said:
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.
Click to expand...
25-35 is pretty decent. That's in a range that includes Felix Jones, Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Bush, McFadden. If I have Hillis I'd be happy with that.
Click to expand...
I agree, he's good and belongs in that range. Short term he is better than most of those guys but longterm is a bit iffy due to running style, small sample of work, and questionable pedigree.
 
moderated said:
Dragon1952 said:
moderated said:
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.
Click to expand...
25-35 is pretty decent. That's in a range that includes Felix Jones, Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Bush, McFadden. If I have Hillis I'd be happy with that.
Click to expand...
I agree, he's good and belongs in that range. Short term he is better than most of those guys but longterm is a bit iffy due to running style, small sample of work, and questionable pedigree.
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Is "questionable pedigree" code for white?
 
huntunc said:
moderated said:
Dragon1952 said:
moderated said:
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.
Click to expand...
25-35 is pretty decent. That's in a range that includes Felix Jones, Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Bush, McFadden. If I have Hillis I'd be happy with that.
Click to expand...
I agree, he's good and belongs in that range. Short term he is better than most of those guys but longterm is a bit iffy due to running style, small sample of work, and questionable pedigree.
Click to expand...
Is "questionable pedigree" code for white?
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No, he's a late round pick who was drafted as a fullback.
 
huntunc said:
moderated said:
Dragon1952 said:
moderated said:
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.
Click to expand...
25-35 is pretty decent. That's in a range that includes Felix Jones, Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Bush, McFadden. If I have Hillis I'd be happy with that.
Click to expand...
I agree, he's good and belongs in that range. Short term he is better than most of those guys but longterm is a bit iffy due to running style, small sample of work, and questionable pedigree.
Click to expand...
Is "questionable pedigree" code for white?
Click to expand...
Maybe he's talking about that 'in-bred' look. Can't be too certain 'bout them Arkansas boys :nerd: jk folks....my wife's from that area :unsure:
 
Dragon1952 said:
There have been quite a few Hillis threads but mostly talking about 'going forward in 2010'. So forget about redraft, what are his prospects to have RB value in dynasty leagues in the future. He was mostly considered a FB in the past, so is he now a bona fide RB? Is this just temporary based on the situation in Cleveland and what happens when Hardesty is healthy. Could Hillis be a RB1 or RB1b on any other team in the future? Of course we know he 'could', but is it likely that's what happens? In a FF trade he could bring a very good player/prospect from a team looking to make a playoff run this year. So are people looking to cash in thinking this is a one time thing based on situation or are you keeping him thinking he can be at least a decent dynasty RB2 or RB3 for the next few years.
Click to expand...
Hillis was a FB in name only. The guy rushed for 2,631 yards and 29 TDs as a high school senior- at over 10 yards per carry- and was named the top prospect in the state of Arkansas. He would have been the featured runner for the Razerbacks, too, if they didn't go out and sign Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in subsequent years. Reminds me a lot of Marion Barber playing in Lawrence Maroney's shadow, or Pierre Thomas playing in Rashard Mendenhall's shadow.
 
SSOG said:
Dragon1952 said:
There have been quite a few Hillis threads but mostly talking about 'going forward in 2010'. So forget about redraft, what are his prospects to have RB value in dynasty leagues in the future. He was mostly considered a FB in the past, so is he now a bona fide RB? Is this just temporary based on the situation in Cleveland and what happens when Hardesty is healthy. Could Hillis be a RB1 or RB1b on any other team in the future? Of course we know he 'could', but is it likely that's what happens? In a FF trade he could bring a very good player/prospect from a team looking to make a playoff run this year. So are people looking to cash in thinking this is a one time thing based on situation or are you keeping him thinking he can be at least a decent dynasty RB2 or RB3 for the next few years.
Click to expand...
Hillis was a FB in name only. The guy rushed for 2,631 yards and 29 TDs as a high school senior- at over 10 yards per carry- and was named the top prospect in the state of Arkansas. He would have been the featured runner for the Razerbacks, too, if they didn't go out and sign Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in subsequent years. Reminds me a lot of Marion Barber playing in Lawrence Maroney's shadow, or Pierre Thomas playing in Rashard Mendenhall's shadow.
Click to expand...
If his upside is the 25-35 rb then he is exactly what i think he is. Solid but a risky dynasty prospect.Im not down on him at all, but his upside as far as longevity is limited.
 
moderated said:
If his upside is the 25-35 rb then he is exactly what i think he is. Solid but a risky dynasty prospect.

Im not down on him at all, but his upside as far as longevity is limited.
Click to expand...
Umm... Hillis is 24 years old and he's currently the #7 RB... so how is his upside RB25-35? His upside is that he remains healthy and continues performing at this level, which would make him a top 5 dynasty RB. Now, you might not think he has a great chance of reaching that upside because you believe his playing style invites injury, but discussions of how likely a player is to reach his upside have no bearing when it comes down to finding out what that player's upside is in the first place.Hillis has off-the-charts upside. Hell, even if he only gives you 3 years as a starter, that's still a lot better than RB25-35 value.

 
moderated said:
SSOG said:
Dragon1952 said:
There have been quite a few Hillis threads but mostly talking about 'going forward in 2010'. So forget about redraft, what are his prospects to have RB value in dynasty leagues in the future. He was mostly considered a FB in the past, so is he now a bona fide RB? Is this just temporary based on the situation in Cleveland and what happens when Hardesty is healthy. Could Hillis be a RB1 or RB1b on any other team in the future? Of course we know he 'could', but is it likely that's what happens? In a FF trade he could bring a very good player/prospect from a team looking to make a playoff run this year. So are people looking to cash in thinking this is a one time thing based on situation or are you keeping him thinking he can be at least a decent dynasty RB2 or RB3 for the next few years.
Click to expand...
Hillis was a FB in name only. The guy rushed for 2,631 yards and 29 TDs as a high school senior- at over 10 yards per carry- and was named the top prospect in the state of Arkansas. He would have been the featured runner for the Razerbacks, too, if they didn't go out and sign Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in subsequent years. Reminds me a lot of Marion Barber playing in Lawrence Maroney's shadow, or Pierre Thomas playing in Rashard Mendenhall's shadow.
Click to expand...
If his upside is the 25-35 rb then he is exactly what i think he is. Solid but a risky dynasty prospect.Im not down on him at all, but his upside as far as longevity is limited.
Click to expand...
His upside is substantially higher than that. His upside is probably what he's doing right now, which is firmly inside the top 10 of most formats. I can't say that I realistically think he's a long term RB1, but RB25 has plenty of value too, and he'll be higher than that even if he loses some touches to another back next year. I'm not sure how anyone can say his upside is a #3 RB at this point.To say his upside is limited because he's bound to get hurt? All RBs have a good chance to get hurt at some point, and while he may have slightly more of a chance than some others, he also has a complete skill set that can make him a RB1 under the right circumstances.A new coach - if they have one next year - may want to come in and name his own starting RB, but he'll also have plenty of other shortcomings to address, and replacing a very productive starting RB may or may not be at the top of the list.
 
SSOG said:
Dragon1952 said:
There have been quite a few Hillis threads but mostly talking about 'going forward in 2010'. So forget about redraft, what are his prospects to have RB value in dynasty leagues in the future. He was mostly considered a FB in the past, so is he now a bona fide RB? Is this just temporary based on the situation in Cleveland and what happens when Hardesty is healthy. Could Hillis be a RB1 or RB1b on any other team in the future? Of course we know he 'could', but is it likely that's what happens? In a FF trade he could bring a very good player/prospect from a team looking to make a playoff run this year. So are people looking to cash in thinking this is a one time thing based on situation or are you keeping him thinking he can be at least a decent dynasty RB2 or RB3 for the next few years.
Click to expand...
Hillis was a FB in name only. The guy rushed for 2,631 yards and 29 TDs as a high school senior- at over 10 yards per carry- and was named the top prospect in the state of Arkansas. He would have been the featured runner for the Razerbacks, too, if they didn't go out and sign Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in subsequent years. Reminds me a lot of Marion Barber playing in Lawrence Maroney's shadow, or Pierre Thomas playing in Rashard Mendenhall's shadow.
Click to expand...
strange description of pierres relation to mendenhall. he had 131 carries to mendenhalls 78.
 
cvnpoka said:
strange description of pierres relation to mendenhall. he had 131 carries to mendenhalls 78.
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Right... and Rashard averaged 8.2 ypc to Thomas's 5.8, and doubled him up in yards per reception, to boot. Thomas finished the season with 834 yards from scrimmage and 6 scores while Mendenhall had 804/6 on substantially fewer touches. Now, it might just be me letting new information cloud my memory of the past (i.e. now that I know that Mendenhall was destined to be a 1st rounder and Pierre was destined to go undrafted, I might be letting that knowledge color my perceptions), but I really feel like my impression at the time was that Pierre was just a guy keeping the seat warm for Rashard.
 
Dragon1952 said:
moderated said:
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.
Click to expand...
25-35 is pretty decent. That's in a range that includes Felix Jones, Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Bush, McFadden. If I have Hillis I'd be happy with that.
Click to expand...
Have you not seen the first half of the season? No way that McFadden is ranked with Reggie Bush/Felix Jones at this point.
 
gandalas said:
Dragon1952 said:
moderated said:
Hillis runs with a style that will get him injured a lot. When healthy he is solid but i wouldn't be confident in his long term prospects.In dynasty he's very risky. Id put him in the 25-35 range for rb's.
Click to expand...
25-35 is pretty decent. That's in a range that includes Felix Jones, Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Bush, McFadden. If I have Hillis I'd be happy with that.
Click to expand...
Have you not seen the first half of the season? No way that McFadden is ranked with Reggie Bush/Felix Jones at this point.
Click to expand...
I'm going by the FBG's recently updated dynasty rankings so maybe they haven't watched the first half of the season. And remember, we're talking strictly future dynasty here :thumbup:
 
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