i agree with some of the things you said here, jeff...
i didn't like how he came across after texas game, either & thought he came of as immature & poor loser...
i don't know about in college, but in the pros leaf came off as an appalingly bad leader... leinart seems like the kind of guy his teammates will gravitate towards, & he has been saying the right things about starting behind warner is best thing for him (see palmer) & came off as respectful...
as far as the holding out part, i'm not sure how much is his input & what is disagreement between team & agents...
if holding out gets him a few more million over life of the contract, that may be more important to him than proving himself... another way to look at it is you would like your QB to be confident, so it may be that he doesn't feel he has anything to prove & could care less what other people think (though in some interviews he did sound a little whiney that he is commonly criticized for not turning pro after junior season, & he seemed to care too much about what others thought... but my point would be the sooner he stops the better)...
he does have some leverage in that ARI season ticket sales rocketed after draft, & i don't think all that was edge signing... with warner brittle, fragile & aging, need for a good backup QB that could play in relief of warner & be groomed as QB of future was a GLARING absence & void on this team... bummer if you have maybe best young WR tandem in league history & you are reduced to navarre chucking the rock... talk about being all dressed up & having nowhere to go!
i don't think cards really want to both burn a first round pick & maybe pass on their best chance to secure a potential franchise QB for forseeable future (remember, IF warner stays healthy they could possibly do better in 2006, finish with better record than recently & therefor lower pick)... i'm guessing leinart knows this... generally in negotiations it is not considered a bad thing to use leverage if you have it & negotiate from position of strength...
leinart WAS the #10 pick... but he easily could have been #3 to TEN... & while it may seem off base to expect any thing other than what you are slotted for, VY got an outstanding contract at #3 that might have been worthy of #1 overall... maybe leinart won't get that kind of contract, but if he thinks he is worth it, from his perspective it may make sense to fight for what he thinks he is worth...
as far as the bust thing, i don't think risk appreciably higher than that for VY & cutler... they may all be for different reasons, but i bet bust risk percentage approximately same for big three... someone in excellent position to assess said risk (ie - skeletor), reportedly would have taken leinart ahead cutler if he had been there...
i don't know whether true or not, but word was there was internal division in TEN & some of them were pushing for leinart... i did hear more than a few commentators say that ARI had great draft (in large part because leinart), they were lucky leinart fell to them... lending some credence to idea that he might be worth more than a typical #10 pick, & adding fuel to holdout fire...
as for paris hilton thing, montana had pretty hot girlfriend/wife & that worked OK for him (she was also celeb - Shick razor girl?)...
* i wouldn't be going out on much of a limb by stating i don't think he holds out the whole season... how many rokkies in past few decades have? the dark side of that is that is money that can't be gotten back (just like you can't if you take lowball offer), & that includes marketing type deals...
so it is close to inevitable they will come together... i'd be surprised if he isn't in camp before the ned of next week... an extension of the statements above that maybe he should drive a hard bargain if he thinks he is worth more than they are offering... if some of the season tickets were sold because of leinart & in advance of his signing but with the presumption he WOULD be signed, you can make a case that leinart already earned a few extra bucks as he played an instrumental role in generating some of the extra dollars that bidwell will be paying him with...
there are limits to that line of thought, & i don't think leinart should take advantage & demand excessive amounts of money because of his position... imo #1 overall money would be out of line... arguable asking for #3 money is... but i think it isn't out of line to negotiate hard to try & reach a compromise amount between typical #10 deal (say if you got an OG there that likely wouldn't ultimately play as large a role in the franchise's long term future, salary slotting aside) & that of VY, who many scouts didn't like as much as leinart...
not sure if it has any bearing... but what if leinart asked ARI point blank... if you had worse record & drafted #4, would you have taken me at #4 & they said yes... it begins to get a little fuzzier on what he is "really" worth... #10 is admittedly far from #3 in the typical salary sense, but in terms of ability, leinart could EASILY be best of group, not due to physical traits (not as good as VY & cutler), but because his strengths in intelligence, vision, knowledge of the game, ability to study tendencies & read defenses, know how to best attack them & where to go with the ball, go through his progressions, avoid the rush & deliver the ball with poise, accuracy & touch, etc. are already advanced to a point where some QBs never get too ... & those traits are CRUCIAL to becoming a great QB... the lack of which (& other intangibles like them) has been the undoing of many more physically gifted busts like andre ware & david klingler... i realize he hasn't proven anything at next level yet, but he wasn't called by some scouts maybe the most advanced QB to enter the draft since peyton manning for nothing...
that last point is also maybe relevant... you don't like to see your rookie QB hold out, ESPECIALLY if it is highly likely he is pressed into action for few series, games this season. but of the three top QB prospects, he is by all accounts best equipped to miss a bit of training camp, given his mature, developed & pro ready game...