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Would the Real Donovan McNabb (1 Viewer)

David Yudkin

David Yudkin

Footballguy
Do numbers tell the whole story when it comes to Donovan McNabb? His production was undeniably better with Terrell Owens in the lineup. But are the stats missleading in this case?

Pre Owens: 2000-2003 (58 games)

208.7 passing yards per game, 1.36 TD per game, 0.72 INT per game

Projected over a 16-game season to:

3,339 passing yards, 22 TD, 12 INT

With Owens: 2004-2005 (21 games)

280 passing yards per game, 2.14 TD per game, 0.71 INT per game

Projected over a 16-game season to:

4,480 passing yards, 34 TD, 12 INT

McNabb also used to chip in rushing the ball, but hasn't run much in recent years.

2000-2003: 33.2 rushing yards per game, 0.29 TD per game

2004-2005 with Owens playing: 11.5 rushing yards per game, 0.14 rushing TD per game

The numbers appear to show that with Owens in the lineup, McNabb saw a 35% increase in passing yards and 55% increase in passing TD.

So the question becomes, did A (the addition of Owens) CAUSE B (much better passing numbers)? Or was B (much better passing numbers) an independent end result that coincided with A (the addition of Owens)? Will McNabb go back to running more (I would guess no, but that's my opinion).

There were 12 QB with more than 3,339 passing yards in 2005 and 13 in 2004. There were 9 QB with 22 passing TD in 2005 and 2006 (excluding McNabb). And remember, this projects McNabb to play in 16 games (a somewhat risky projection).

The pre-Owens numbers make McNabb look more like a Top 10-12 QB than a Top 5 one. Will McNabb produce closer to his numbers with Owens or closer to his totals pre-Owens?

 
The pre-Owens numbers make McNabb look more like a Top 10-12 QB than a Top 5 one. Will McNabb produce closer to his numbers with Owens or closer to his totals pre-Owens?
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My gut feeling is that he'll be somewhere in between. He doesn't have TO, but I think his WR's now are better than they were pre-TO. I also think he's a much better QB now and even though he doesn't run as much he's more effective throwing the ball. I don't think he'll be top 5, but he should be in the neighborhood and break the top 10.
 
My stock statement for this all pre-season is that he will have similar passing numbers to pre-Owens McNabb with less running (although probably more than what he's done with Owens).

Risky risky risky as a top 3-5 candidate. Should be a solid top 10-12.

 
The numbers could also just show that McNabb matured and instead of looking to run often, he threw.

 
McNabb will be good because the Eagles do not have a running game; until that is addressed the eagles will continue to pass the ball more than run. McNabb is the Eagles offense. Name one other team in the league whose QB means more to them than McNabb does to the Eagles.

 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.

 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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:goodposting:
 
McNabb will be good because the Eagles do not have a running game; until that is addressed the eagles will continue to pass the ball more than run. McNabb is the Eagles offense. Name one other team in the league whose QB means more to them than McNabb does to the Eagles.
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Peyton Manning.
 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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:goodposting:
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Of course Owens played a part in it. But could it not be argued McNabb has simply matured as a passer and ran the ball less? Combining that with Owens' impact and it could be making TO look like he influenced things more than he actually did.What were McNabb's numbers without TO in the lineup?

 
As much as I like McNabb, I just can't see him approaching the same numbers that he had with Owens. Does anyone think that Manning would throw for 4500 yards and 40+ TDs if he played for the Bears? WRs definitely have an impact on a QB's numbers.

Don't get me wrong, I think at all of the other WR positions we're going to see an upgrade for the Eagles, but Reggie Brown just doesn't even come close to approaching Owens right now.

I'd even be more convinced if I thought that McNabb's accuracy has improved. I don't feel that it has improved much at all though. And yes, I know that his completion % has always been close to 60%, but he throws a lot of short passes to boost that number. It amazes me how many times he skips the ball to WRs.

I think that barring injury, around 3000 passing yards, 22 TDs and 11 INTs is where he'll finish up. I also think that he'll have a stretch of bad games where you can buy him cheap and then he'll have a bunch of nice games to play him.

 
The numbers could also just show that McNabb matured and instead of looking to run often, he threw.
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2000-2003: 33 passing attempts per game2004-2005: 34 passing attempts per game
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This is misleading information.McNabb only played in 9 games in 2005 and had 357 passing attempts.

357/9 = 39.666666666666666666666666666667

Almost 40 attempts per game last year.

 
McNabb will be good because the Eagles do not have a running game; until that is addressed the eagles will continue to pass the ball more than run. McNabb is the Eagles offense. Name one other team in the league whose QB means more to them than McNabb does to the Eagles.
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Peyton Manning.
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I was taking about last year. Peyton had Edge.

 
The numbers could also just show that McNabb matured and instead of looking to run often, he threw.
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2000-2003: 33 passing attempts per game2004-2005: 34 passing attempts per game
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This is misleading information.McNabb only played in 9 games in 2005 and had 357 passing attempts.

357/9 = 39.666666666666666666666666666667

Almost 40 attempts per game last year.
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McNabb barely played one game at the end of 2004, so a better number would be 36 passing attempts per game vs 33 in 2000-2003.And IMO, the Eagles need to have a more balanced attack to get back to winning. I also am not so sure if the "maturation" process was not more calls for passing plays than running plays. Philly RB had 60 fewer carries vs 2002 and 40 fewer carries vs 2003.

 
McNabb will be good because the Eagles do not have a running game; until that is addressed the eagles will continue to pass the ball more than run.  McNabb is the Eagles offense. Name one other team in the league whose QB means more to them than McNabb does to the Eagles.
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Peyton Manning.
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Tom Brady
 
McNabb will be good because the Eagles do not have a running game; until that is addressed the eagles will continue to pass the ball more than run. McNabb is the Eagles offense. Name one other team in the league whose QB means more to them than McNabb does to the Eagles.
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Peyton Manning.
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Tom Brady
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Tom Brady had Dillon and a killer defense.Dillon played in 12 games last year and scored 12 TDs.

 
McNabb will be good because the Eagles do not have a running game; until that is addressed the eagles will continue to pass the ball more than run.  McNabb is the Eagles offense. Name one other team in the league whose QB means more to them than McNabb does to the Eagles.
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Peyton Manning.
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Tom Brady
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Tom Brady had Dillon and a killer defense.Dillon played in 12 games last year and scored 12 TDs.
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And how did NE do before they had Dillon? Pretty damn good I'd say. Brady is the face of that franchise, not Dillon. Dillon had 12 TDs BECAUSE of Brady.And correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Eagles have a pretty good defense a few years ago?

 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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The "best year" you cite was actually 2002 when he broke his ankle in week 10. After only 10 games that season (with WRs not named Owens and inferior to their current crop) he was STILL QB 13 for the year. Prorate that season and you get 3,662 passing yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs, 736 rushing yards with 10 rushing TDs - I believe good enough stats for QB 1. Fantasy scores have nothing to do with completion % or QB rating. The fact is, when healthy, McNabb is a fantasy stud. Look at the last 9 games of 2003 (when he was finally recovered from a broken finger) - totals of 2,221 passing yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 164 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. That's 29 total TDs over the course of 16 games. Let's review the career of "healthy" McNabb:

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

Even in 2005 when he was NEVER healthy, he managed 17 TDs in 9 games. IIRC, he was #1 in passing yards and #2 in TDs when he went on IR. That's another 30 total TDs if prorated.

Of couse it would help any QB's passing stats to have Owens as their star WR. The question is not "which McNabb will show up", but rather, "can he stay healthy". I am also far from convinced that he has "stopped running". Anyone projecting him to have less than 25 total TDs this year is foolishly ignoring his history. IMHO, of course.

 
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PS

Last year, McNabb played in 2 games with TO suspended. He averaged 18 fantasy points in those games. 18 x 16 games = 288 points for the season. Good enough for QB 4 last year.

 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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The "best year" you cite was actually 2002 when he broke his ankle in week 10. After only 10 games that season (with WRs not named Owens and inferior to their current crop) he was STILL QB 13 for the year. Prorate that season and you get 3,662 passing yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs, 736 rushing yards with 10 rushing TDs - I believe good enough stats for QB 1. Fantasy scores have nothing to do with completion % or QB rating. The fact is, when healthy, McNabb is a fantasy stud. Look at the last 9 games of 2003 (when he was finally recovered from a broken finger) - totals of 2,221 passing yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 164 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. That's 29 total TDs over the course of 16 games. Let's review the career of "healthy" McNabb:

2000 = 27 total TDs 21 passing TD's - no Owens

2001 = 27 total TDs 25 passing TD's - no owens

2002 = 37 23 total TDs 17 passing TD's - no Owens

2003 = 29 19 total TDs 16 passing TD's - no Owens

2004 = 36 total TDs 31 passing TD's - with Owens

Even in 2005 when he was NEVER healthy, he managed 17 TDs (6 of those were to Owens) in 9 games. IIRC, he was #1 in passing yards and #2 in TDs when he went on IR. That's another 30 total TDs if prorated.

When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.

Of couse it would help any QB's passing stats to have Owens as their star WR. The question is not "which McNabb will show up", but rather, "can he stay healthy". I am also far from convinced that he has "stopped running". Anyone projecting him to have less than 25 total TDs this year is foolishly ignoring his history. IMHO, of course.
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Your TD totals for McNabb in the years 2002 & 2003 were wildly exagerated.From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 24 total TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 19.75 passing TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 4.25 rushing TD's on 5.3 rushes per game.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 25.5 total TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 23.5 passing TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 2.0 rushing TD's on 2.75 rushes per game.

 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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The "best year" you cite was actually 2002 when he broke his ankle in week 10. After only 10 games that season (with WRs not named Owens and inferior to their current crop) he was STILL QB 13 for the year. Prorate that season and you get 3,662 passing yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs, 736 rushing yards with 10 rushing TDs - I believe good enough stats for QB 1. Fantasy scores have nothing to do with completion % or QB rating. The fact is, when healthy, McNabb is a fantasy stud. Look at the last 9 games of 2003 (when he was finally recovered from a broken finger) - totals of 2,221 passing yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 164 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. That's 29 total TDs over the course of 16 games. Let's review the career of "healthy" McNabb:

2000 = 27 total TDs 21 passing TD's - no Owens

2001 = 27 total TDs 25 passing TD's - no owens

2002 = 37 23 total TDs 17 passing TD's - no Owens

2003 = 29 19 total TDs 16 passing TD's - no Owens

2004 = 36 total TDs 31 passing TD's - with Owens

Even in 2005 when he was NEVER healthy, he managed 17 TDs (6 of those were to Owens) in 9 games. IIRC, he was #1 in passing yards and #2 in TDs when he went on IR. That's another 30 total TDs if prorated.

When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.

Of couse it would help any QB's passing stats to have Owens as their star WR. The question is not "which McNabb will show up", but rather, "can he stay healthy". I am also far from convinced that he has "stopped running". Anyone projecting him to have less than 25 total TDs this year is foolishly ignoring his history. IMHO, of course.
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Your TD totals for McNabb in the years 2002 & 2003 were wildly exagerated.From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 24 total TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 19.75 passing TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 4.25 rushing TD's on 5.3 rushes per game.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 25.5 total TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 23.5 passing TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 2.0 rushing TD's on 2.75 rushes per game.
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Try not doing it per year but per game basis. This is better since he has missed many games over his career.
 
McNabb's numbers will take a serious hit. To deny that is foolish. Exhibit A: Daunte Culpepper sans Randy Moss. McNabb's won't plummet like Culpepper's did, but to expect much more than his best pre-Owens season is foolish. The WRs in Philly still suck as a group, and McNabb can't/doesn't run like he used to. Expecting top 5 fantasy numbers is crazy.

 
McNabb's numbers will take a serious hit.  To deny that is foolish.  Exhibit A: Daunte Culpepper sans Randy Moss.  McNabb's won't plummet like Culpepper's did, but to expect much more than his best pre-Owens season is foolish.  The WRs in Philly still suck as a group, and McNabb can't/doesn't run like he used to.  Expecting top 5 fantasy numbers is crazy.
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I just showed you where McNabb's best "pre-Owens" season would make him QB 1. He was top 5 before Owens.

WHEN HEALTHY, only Peyton Manning has consistently been in his league.

 
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The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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The "best year" you cite was actually 2002 when he broke his ankle in week 10. After only 10 games that season (with WRs not named Owens and inferior to their current crop) he was STILL QB 13 for the year. Prorate that season and you get 3,662 passing yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs, 736 rushing yards with 10 rushing TDs - I believe good enough stats for QB 1. Fantasy scores have nothing to do with completion % or QB rating. The fact is, when healthy, McNabb is a fantasy stud. Look at the last 9 games of 2003 (when he was finally recovered from a broken finger) - totals of 2,221 passing yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 164 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. That's 29 total TDs over the course of 16 games. Let's review the career of "healthy" McNabb:

2000 = 27 total TDs 21 passing TD's - no Owens

2001 = 27 total TDs 25 passing TD's - no owens

2002 = 37 23 total TDs 17 passing TD's - no Owens

2003 = 29 19 total TDs 16 passing TD's - no Owens

2004 = 36 total TDs 31 passing TD's - with Owens

Even in 2005 when he was NEVER healthy, he managed 17 TDs (6 of those were to Owens) in 9 games. IIRC, he was #1 in passing yards and #2 in TDs when he went on IR. That's another 30 total TDs if prorated.

When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.

Of couse it would help any QB's passing stats to have Owens as their star WR. The question is not "which McNabb will show up", but rather, "can he stay healthy". I am also far from convinced that he has "stopped running". Anyone projecting him to have less than 25 total TDs this year is foolishly ignoring his history. IMHO, of course.
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Your TD totals for McNabb in the years 2002 & 2003 were wildly exagerated.From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 24 total TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 19.75 passing TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 4.25 rushing TD's on 5.3 rushes per game.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 25.5 total TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 23.5 passing TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 2.0 rushing TD's on 2.75 rushes per game.
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As mentioned above, you cannot take stats "per year", but rather "per game". If you take it "per game" and prorate it out, my numbers are exactly correct, not "wildly exagerated".
 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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The "best year" you cite was actually 2002 when he broke his ankle in week 10. After only 10 games that season (with WRs not named Owens and inferior to their current crop) he was STILL QB 13 for the year. Prorate that season and you get 3,662 passing yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs, 736 rushing yards with 10 rushing TDs - I believe good enough stats for QB 1. Fantasy scores have nothing to do with completion % or QB rating. The fact is, when healthy, McNabb is a fantasy stud. Look at the last 9 games of 2003 (when he was finally recovered from a broken finger) - totals of 2,221 passing yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 164 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. That's 29 total TDs over the course of 16 games. Let's review the career of "healthy" McNabb:

2000 = 27 total TDs 21 passing TD's - no Owens

2001 = 27 total TDs 25 passing TD's - no owens

2002 = 37 23 total TDs 17 passing TD's - no Owens

2003 = 29 19 total TDs 16 passing TD's - no Owens

2004 = 36 total TDs 31 passing TD's - with Owens

Even in 2005 when he was NEVER healthy, he managed 17 TDs (6 of those were to Owens) in 9 games. IIRC, he was #1 in passing yards and #2 in TDs when he went on IR. That's another 30 total TDs if prorated.

When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.

Of couse it would help any QB's passing stats to have Owens as their star WR. The question is not "which McNabb will show up", but rather, "can he stay healthy". I am also far from convinced that he has "stopped running". Anyone projecting him to have less than 25 total TDs this year is foolishly ignoring his history. IMHO, of course.
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Your TD totals for McNabb in the years 2002 & 2003 were wildly exagerated.From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 24 total TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 19.75 passing TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 4.25 rushing TD's on 5.3 rushes per game.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 25.5 total TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 23.5 passing TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 2.0 rushing TD's on 2.75 rushes per game.
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Try not doing it per year but per game basis. This is better since he has missed many games over his career.
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Actually he played 16 games in 2000,2001 & 2003. He did miss 6 games in 2002.2004 he played 15 games & only 9 games last year. So from 2004 thru 2005 he missed 7 games

So it's even more telling that McNabb had better passing & TD numbers 2004 & 2005 while missing 1 more game than the years 2000 thru 2003. :shrug:

I did do the break down on a per game basis for his rushing attempts.

McNabb averaged 5.3 rushes per game 2000 thru 2003

- vs -

McNabb averaged 2.75 rushes per game 2004 thru 2005

 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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The "best year" you cite was actually 2002 when he broke his ankle in week 10. After only 10 games that season (with WRs not named Owens and inferior to their current crop) he was STILL QB 13 for the year. Prorate that season and you get 3,662 passing yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs, 736 rushing yards with 10 rushing TDs - I believe good enough stats for QB 1. Fantasy scores have nothing to do with completion % or QB rating. The fact is, when healthy, McNabb is a fantasy stud. Look at the last 9 games of 2003 (when he was finally recovered from a broken finger) - totals of 2,221 passing yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 164 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. That's 29 total TDs over the course of 16 games. Let's review the career of "healthy" McNabb:

2000 = 27 total TDs 21 passing TD's - no Owens

2001 = 27 total TDs 25 passing TD's - no owens

2002 = 37 23 total TDs 17 passing TD's - no Owens

2003 = 29 19 total TDs 16 passing TD's - no Owens

2004 = 36 total TDs 31 passing TD's - with Owens

Even in 2005 when he was NEVER healthy, he managed 17 TDs (6 of those were to Owens) in 9 games. IIRC, he was #1 in passing yards and #2 in TDs when he went on IR. That's another 30 total TDs if prorated.

When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.

Of couse it would help any QB's passing stats to have Owens as their star WR. The question is not "which McNabb will show up", but rather, "can he stay healthy". I am also far from convinced that he has "stopped running". Anyone projecting him to have less than 25 total TDs this year is foolishly ignoring his history. IMHO, of course.
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Your TD totals for McNabb in the years 2002 & 2003 were wildly exagerated.From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 24 total TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 19.75 passing TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 4.25 rushing TD's on 5.3 rushes per game.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 25.5 total TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 23.5 passing TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 2.0 rushing TD's on 2.75 rushes per game.
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As mentioned above, you cannot take stats "per year", but rather "per game". If you take it "per game" and prorate it out, my numbers are exactly correct, not "wildly exagerated".
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Herein lies part of the challenge in evalauting and projecting players. From the year he broke his ankle on, McNabb had played in 49 of 64 games (he played one series in one other game, so I excluded that one). That's roughly 75% of the games. So should we discount his total stats due to injury by . . . 0%? 10%? 20%? 25?If based on 0%, then Kurt Warner has to be considered a Top 5 QB this year as well (for those arguing that McNabb should be Top 5).

 
I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. McNabb pre-TO had probably the worst wr crew in the league, then he inherits TO (probably the best WR in the league) and his stats go threw the roof. This year he will have a better crew than pre-TO but not as good as with TO therefore I think his #'s will fall somewhere in between. Probably around 3800 and 24 td's 12 int's....

 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.

 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
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:confused:
 
As mentioned above, you cannot take stats "per year", but rather "per game". If you take it "per game" and prorate it out, my numbers are exactly correct, not "wildly exagerated".
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Then how do you explain this proration as accurate
Last year, McNabb played in 2 games with TO suspended. He averaged 18 fantasy points in those games. 18 x 16 games = 288 points for the season. Good enough for QB 4 last year.
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When on a per game basis the numbers show this
When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.
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And yes McNabb did miss 6 games 2000 thru 2003.

But McNabb also missed 7 games 2004 thru 2005.

Yet his passing yardage and TD numbers 2004 thru 2005 were above his passing yardage and TD numbers 2000 thru 2003 despite missing one more game.

The facys of the matter are;

McNabb has definitely curtailed his rushing attempts the last two years and his passing, in regards to both yardage & TD's, was substantially better with TO, than without TO.

I don't see how this can be argued against :shrug:

 
The numbers don't lie.

Full 16 games with Owens starting all = QB comp % of 64 & QB rating of 104.7

Best year full 16 games without Owens = QB comp % of 58.4 & QB rating of 86.0

No doubt there will be a passing drop off for McNabb sans Owens & to add insult to injury, less rushing to boot.
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The "best year" you cite was actually 2002 when he broke his ankle in week 10. After only 10 games that season (with WRs not named Owens and inferior to their current crop) he was STILL QB 13 for the year. Prorate that season and you get 3,662 passing yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs, 736 rushing yards with 10 rushing TDs - I believe good enough stats for QB 1. Fantasy scores have nothing to do with completion % or QB rating. The fact is, when healthy, McNabb is a fantasy stud. Look at the last 9 games of 2003 (when he was finally recovered from a broken finger) - totals of 2,221 passing yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 164 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. That's 29 total TDs over the course of 16 games. Let's review the career of "healthy" McNabb:

2000 = 27 total TDs 21 passing TD's - no Owens

2001 = 27 total TDs 25 passing TD's - no owens

2002 = 37 23 total TDs 17 passing TD's - no Owens

2003 = 29 19 total TDs 16 passing TD's - no Owens

2004 = 36 total TDs 31 passing TD's - with Owens

Even in 2005 when he was NEVER healthy, he managed 17 TDs (6 of those were to Owens) in 9 games. IIRC, he was #1 in passing yards and #2 in TDs when he went on IR. That's another 30 total TDs if prorated.

When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.

Of couse it would help any QB's passing stats to have Owens as their star WR. The question is not "which McNabb will show up", but rather, "can he stay healthy". I am also far from convinced that he has "stopped running". Anyone projecting him to have less than 25 total TDs this year is foolishly ignoring his history. IMHO, of course.
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Your TD totals for McNabb in the years 2002 & 2003 were wildly exagerated.From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 24 total TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 19.75 passing TD's per year.

From 2000 thru 2003 McNabb averaged 4.25 rushing TD's on 5.3 rushes per game.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 25.5 total TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 23.5 passing TD's per year.

From 2004 thru 2005 McNabb averaged 2.0 rushing TD's on 2.75 rushes per game.
Click to expand...
As mentioned above, you cannot take stats "per year", but rather "per game". If you take it "per game" and prorate it out, my numbers are exactly correct, not "wildly exagerated".
Click to expand...
Herein lies part of the challenge in evalauting and projecting players. From the year he broke his ankle on, McNabb had played in 49 of 64 games (he played one series in one other game, so I excluded that one). That's roughly 75% of the games. So should we discount his total stats due to injury by . . . 0%? 10%? 20%? 25?If based on 0%, then Kurt Warner has to be considered a Top 5 QB this year as well (for those arguing that McNabb should be Top 5).
Click to expand...
:confused: I don't follow you.

Over 10 games last year, Warner 2713 yds, 11 TDs, 9 INTs. Prorated to 16 games, that would give him 4,341 yards, but less than 18 TDs with over 14 INTs. Would that get him top 5? More to the point, in the past 7 years, he's only been ranked above QB 14 twice. He hasn't exactly been a model of consistency.

 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
 
As mentioned above, you cannot take stats "per year", but rather "per game". If you take it "per game" and prorate it out, my numbers are exactly correct, not "wildly exagerated".
Click to expand...
Then how do you explain this proration as accurate
Last year, McNabb played in 2 games with TO suspended. He averaged 18 fantasy points in those games. 18 x 16 games = 288 points for the season. Good enough for QB 4 last year.
Click to expand...
When on a per game basis the numbers show this
When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
You're comparing apples to oranges. I said you can't use "per year" numbers when talking about a player who missed games due to injury (McNabb in 2002 and 2005, for instance). The whole point of this is "how will McNabb play without TO"? So, I referenced the only 2 games "post-TO" that McNabb has played in. He was a top 5 QB even then. My point was, and is, that he will find a way to get 25+ TDs if he remains healthy. Always has.
 
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To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
Click to expand...
Excuse me, chief?I documented everything.

 
Herein lies part of the challenge in evalauting and projecting players. From the year he broke his ankle on, McNabb had played in 49 of 64 games (he played one series in one other game, so I excluded that one). That's roughly 75% of the games. So should we discount his total stats due to injury by . . . 0%? 10%? 20%? 25?
Click to expand...
The only place I am excluding stats due to injury (broken finger on his throwing hand will mess up your passing stats) is the first 7 weeks of 2003. Not a percentage. He's a pretty dominant fantasy player when not playing with a broken bone - and sometimes when he does. :)
 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
Click to expand...
I think some people are getting confused:Mcnabb

2001 = 27 TD (21P + 6 R) 16 games

2002 = 23 TD (17P +6R) 10 Games

(Let's prorate this up 14 because ((23 /10) * 6 ) = 13.8 more because of the missed 6 games) 23 + 13 = 26.8 which I will round up to 27 TD's.

2003 = 19 TD (16P + 3R) 16 games

2004 = 34 TD (31P + 3R) 15 Games - Leave it

2005 = 17 TD (16P +1R) 9 games (Let's prorate this up 13 because ((17 /9) * 7 ) = 13.2 more because of the missed 7 games) 17 + 13 which I will round up to 20 TD's.

Lets Review.

2001 = 27

2002 = 23

2003 = 19

2004 = 34

2005 = 20

-------------

123

(123/5) = 24.6

McNabb has averaged 24.6 TD's per year.

If I am wrong please tell me.

 
As mentioned above, you cannot take stats "per year", but rather "per game". If you take it "per game" and prorate it out, my numbers are exactly correct, not "wildly exagerated".
Click to expand...
Then how do you explain this proration as accurate
Last year, McNabb played in 2 games with TO suspended. He averaged 18 fantasy points in those games. 18 x 16 games = 288 points for the season. Good enough for QB 4 last year.
Click to expand...
When on a per game basis the numbers show this
When you prorate 30 TD's, are you taking into account the loss of Owens?

7 games with Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 290 passing yards per game & 2.14 passing TD's per game.

2 games minus Owens 2005

McNabb averaged 236 passing yards per game & .05 passing TD's per game.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
You're comparing apples to oranges. I said you can't use "per year" numbers when talking about a player who missed games due to injury (McNabb in 2002 and 2005, for instance). The whole point of this is "now will McNabb play without TO"? So, I referenced the only 2 games "post-TO" that McNabb has played in. He was a top 5 QB even then.
Click to expand...
I think you're missing the point on your prorating McNabb's numbers and insisting that they are accurate.If you take those two games sans TO, you multiply McNabbs 236 yards per game average & .05 per game TD average, by 16 games and you get 3,776 passing yards with 8 passing TD's.

That is the problem with prorating numbers. No way any QB throws for 3,776 yards, but only has 8 passing TD's.

 
McNabb has averaged 24.6 TD's per year.
Click to expand...
If I am reading the comments in this thread right, a prior statement was that McNabb has never scored fewer than 25 TD on a season. However, that was based on prorated seasons. He may have averaged 24.6 TD, but of *actual* seasons with 25+ TD, he didn't get 25 in 3 of the past 4 seasons. "On pace for" is different than "actually posted in the scorebook."
 
The issue to me is the running. McNabb had good, but not great, passing numbers prior to TO, but what put him in the top tier was his running. McNabb would get about 500 yards and 5-6 TDs on the ground, or about 60ish points better than QBs of average mobility (who I have at about 200 yards and 2-3TDs). That's the equivalent of throwing 5 more TDs and passing for 1,000 more yards. I promise you, add 1,000 yards passing and 5 TDs to any average QB and he'll look really good.

But I don't see how McNabb is going to run for that much. Both the quantity and the quality of his runs has been in decline, and I suspect that even if healthy for 16 games, he will only have about 200-250 yards and 2-3TDs on the ground. With that, it will take a truly exceptional passing season, on the order of 3500+ yards and 28+ TDs, to make him a true top QB. With no Terrel Owens, I just don't see it happening.

 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
Click to expand...
Excuse me, chief?I documented everything.
Click to expand...
You have doctored the TD toals via prorating / projecting.The fact is, McNabb does not have the TD totals that you have posted. :shrug:

 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
Click to expand...
Excuse me, chief?I documented everything.
Click to expand...
You have doctored the TD toals via prorating / projecting.The fact is, McNabb does not have the TD totals that you have posted. :shrug:
Click to expand...
How do you expect someone to compare TD totals against other players without projections when a player misses games? Just put a Zero?
 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 pace = 37 total TDs

2003 pace based on second half = 29 total TDs

2004 pace = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
Click to expand...
Okay is everyone satisfied now?
 
You have doctored the TD toals via prorating / projecting.
Click to expand...
People who ignore points per game and look only at actual totals (with injury and other factor) will consistently lose at fantasy football.
 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
Click to expand...
Excuse me, chief?I documented everything.
Click to expand...
You have doctored the TD toals via prorating / projecting.The fact is, McNabb does not have the TD totals that you have posted. :shrug:
Click to expand...
How do you expect someone to compare TD totals against other players without projections when a player misses games? Just put a Zero?
Click to expand...
Compare McNabbs actuall 10 games played in 2002 vs other QB's actual 10 games played in 2002?Regardless, the fact of the matter is, McNabb DOES NOT have the TD totals as posted by zadok :shrug:

 
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McNabb's won't plummet like Culpepper's did, but to expect much more than his best pre-Owens season is foolish.
Click to expand...
Yep, I expect him to be no better than his 2002 season when he was #1 in ppg.
 
How do you expect someone to compare TD totals against other players without projections when a player misses games? Just put a Zero?
Click to expand...
Compare McNabbs actuall 10 games played in 2002 vs other QB's actual 10 games played in 2002? :shrug:
Click to expand...
Or just look at ppg like most sharks do.
 
To reiterate, "healthy McNabb's" career LOW for TDs in a season is 27.

2000 = 27 total TDs

2001 = 27 total TDs

2002 = 37 total TDs

2003 = 29 total TDs

2004 = 36 total TDs

You want to bet against him getting 25+ this year? Be my guest. I'm not. History shows that even with an inferior supporting cast, he gets it done again and again.
Click to expand...
:confused:
Click to expand...
He has doctored the TD totals.
Click to expand...
Excuse me, chief?I documented everything.
Click to expand...
You have doctored the TD toals via prorating / projecting.The fact is, McNabb does not have the TD totals that you have posted. :shrug:
Click to expand...
How do you expect someone to compare TD totals against other players without projections when a player misses games? Just put a Zero?
Click to expand...
Compare McNabbs actuall 10 games played in 2002 vs other QB's actual 10 games played in 2002? :shrug:
Click to expand...
Fine.In the first 10 games last season McNabb was the #1 QB using FBG scoring.

LINK

Donovan McNabb 191.35

Carson Palmer 188.05

Tom Brady 179.55

Peyton Manning 174.85

Brett Favre 170

Drew Bledsoe 169.65

 
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