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Mike Thomas (1 Viewer)

corpcow

corpcow

Footballguy
I asked this in a very league-specific question in the Asst Coach forum and didn't get much response, so I thought I would try it again on a more general level here.

Mike Thomas is a guy who I've been high on (like Sigmund & Cecil) ever since seeing his profile on DraftGuys. He is short, but looks relatively thick and I was hoping he might emerge as something more than just a slot receiver.

Now, he's struggled this preseason to do much with his hamstring issues. Troy Williamson has actually looked solid and Underwood is impressing - and though Dillard has reportedly struggled, at least he's getting reps. My fear is that he won't have the opportunity to get on the field early, which ultimately could hold him back if he's typecast as a slot receiver and doesn't have the chance to prove them otherwise early on.

So what kind of upside do you see for Thomas? Is he worth rostering in 16 team non-PPR dynasties? How do you see him and his upside compared to his peers in the dynasty WR rankings: guys like Sidney Rice, Earl Bennett, Brandon Tate, Chaz Schilens, Dominic Hixon, Devin Thomas?

 
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Expect a slot WR, but his upside is Steve Smith...seriously. Kid's electric on the field, will have to wait and see if he can do it vs. the big boys though. I believe...just wasn't able to get him in either of my dynasties. That's what happens when you don't have any 2nd round picks and your 3rd round picks are late ones.

 
He has been running lately so hopefully he can get on the field soon. As far as fantasy potential, obviously in redraft he's not currently an option. In dynasty I would not let Troy Williamson scare you off Mike Thomas if you think he has potential. The Jags WR corps is still unsettled and outside of Holt(who is obviously towards the end of his career) no one is close to a sure thing. Thomas should get chances at the slot at soon as he is healthy and will get his shot as an every down WR if his play warrants it.

 
wadsworth and mac_32 covered it well - talent is still there, just struggling through a hammy. Both Dillard and Thomas will get a chance to start if they're good enough to merit it.

 
How is the FBG community feeling about the #2 WR battle in Jax in 2010?

Looks like Mike Thomas, Jarett Dillard and Troy Williamson will be battling for the spot.

Mike Thomas - Stud in the Pac 10 2 years ago, was solid as the #3 last year and finished the season with two productive games.

Troy Williamson - 2009 Preseason stud, beat out MSW for the starting job in Week 1 and then proceeded to lose the starting gig in week 2, fumble, then while trying to recover his own fumble tear his labrum and that would require season ending shoulder surgery.

Jarett Dillard - Broken Leg ended his season in November, he was just starting to challenge Thomas as the 3rd WR.

I think that this battle will come down to Thomas and Williamson, with Dillard playing more of a situational role and spending some time in the slot. I'm betting on Thomas winning the job but Williamson will definitely be in the mix.

Other noteworthy WR's: Nate Hughes and Tiquan Underwood.

 
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Williamson seems rather unlikely to be relevant. If he wins a starting gig, it will be in name only. He won't likely get starter targets. I doubt he wins the starting job anyway.

I like Mike Thomas as the #2, though I don't have a firm grasp on Dillard or Underwood. Thomas looked the part of an NFL WR last year. Everybody assumes short WRs are only slot guys, but I don't think that is true at all. There are a lot of WRs 5'10" and under starting... is there that much difference between 5'8" and 5'10"? Smaller guys can be pushed off of their routes at the line, that is the biggest problem... but that is often a function of short area quickness and physical strength. Taller weak WRs have the same problem unless they have very good quickness. Thomas has very good short area quicks and is rock solid at 195 lbs. Good hands, very good change of direction... he's an interesting prospect.

That being said, there is only so much production that is going to come out of Jax, so we are talking fairly low ceilings here outside of MSW.

 
The minicamp notes thread had some good information:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=530790

I pulled these two snippits of information from Balco's posts in that thread:

Some of the other wide receivers stood out, too. Mike Thomas routinely turned around defensive backs in one-on-one match ups with his superb route running.Jarett Dillard caught everything in sight, and Kassim Osgood looked pretty good. The only thing that really stood out with Osgood is that he looks awkward running, almost lumbering. It's not too bad, because he still shows flashes of speed for his size, but it just looks so unnatural. Wide receivers coach Todd Monken was working with him heavily on polishing his routes, so that will be something to watch at later camps and in training camp. Troy Williamson, the pre-season enigma, also looked pretty good. He had an early drop, but after that caught everything thrown to him if he wasn't being shoved to the ground on a deep pass. That happened twice during the 11x11 drills. Williamson would be on the verge of breaking free from the coverage as the ball was put into the air and the defensive back took him to the ground both times. If nothing else, it would have been two easy pass interference calls.

Offense

Maybe it was the lack of Greg Jones, but I saw a good amount of 3 wide receiver sets. Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas, and Troy Williamson look like they've seperated themselves from the pack already. Jarrett Dillard also made some nice receptions. Kaasim Osgood made one of the plays of the afternoon by catching a long pass, but he still reminds me of a big dog that isn't comfy in his own skin when he runs. Mike Sims-Walker looks primed for easily the best season by a Jaguars wide receiver since Jimmy Smith was in his prime. He made several terrific catches, inluding going down on both of his knees to catch a poorly thrown ball on an out route.

 
OffenseMaybe it was the lack of Greg Jones, but I saw a good amount of 3 wide receiver sets. Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas, and Troy Williamson look like they've seperated themselves from the pack already. Jarrett Dillard also made some nice receptions. Kaasim Osgood made one of the plays of the afternoon by catching a long pass, but he still reminds me of a big dog that isn't comfy in his own skin when he runs. Mike Sims-Walker looks primed for easily the best season by a Jaguars wide receiver since Jimmy Smith was in his prime. He made several terrific catches, inluding going down on both of his knees to catch a poorly thrown ball on an out route.
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I don't think Williamson will be able to hold Dillard off for long and I still think Dillard ends up the #2 with Thomas in the slot.
 
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Lott said:
Williamson seems rather unlikely to be relevant. If he wins a starting gig, it will be in name only. He won't likely get starter targets. I doubt he wins the starting job anyway.I like Mike Thomas as the #2, though I don't have a firm grasp on Dillard or Underwood. Thomas looked the part of an NFL WR last year. Everybody assumes short WRs are only slot guys, but I don't think that is true at all. There are a lot of WRs 5'10" and under starting... is there that much difference between 5'8" and 5'10"? Smaller guys can be pushed off of their routes at the line, that is the biggest problem... but that is often a function of short area quickness and physical strength. Taller weak WRs have the same problem unless they have very good quickness. Thomas has very good short area quicks and is rock solid at 195 lbs. Good hands, very good change of direction... he's an interesting prospect.That being said, there is only so much production that is going to come out of Jax, so we are talking fairly low ceilings here outside of MSW.
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That's my take on it as well. I like him talent wise but I don't see him doing a whole lot in jax
 
(KFFL) Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter mentioned WR Mike Thomas and WR Jarett Dillard as possible options for the team's No. 2 receiver spot, reports Jaguars.com's Vic Ketchman.
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cstu said:
(KFFL) Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter mentioned WR Mike Thomas and WR Jarett Dillard as possible options for the team's No. 2 receiver spot, reports Jaguars.com's Vic Ketchman.
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Options, but right now it look like Williamson is WR2. There is a youth movement in Jax which obviously could come into play and Thomas may well be the more gifted receiver anyways. But for now Troy seems to be WR2.
 
Wadsworth said:
cstu said:
(KFFL) Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter mentioned WR Mike Thomas and WR Jarett Dillard as possible options for the team's No. 2 receiver spot, reports Jaguars.com's Vic Ketchman.
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Options, but right now it look like Williamson is WR2. There is a youth movement in Jax which obviously could come into play and Thomas may well be the more gifted receiver anyways. But for now Troy seems to be WR2.
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Not sure why it wouldn't be their 2nd best WR and that is Thomas.
 
JohnnyU said:
Wadsworth said:
cstu said:
(KFFL) Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter mentioned WR Mike Thomas and WR Jarett Dillard as possible options for the team's No. 2 receiver spot, reports Jaguars.com's Vic Ketchman.
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Options, but right now it look like Williamson is WR2. There is a youth movement in Jax which obviously could come into play and Thomas may well be the more gifted receiver anyways. But for now Troy seems to be WR2.
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Not sure why it wouldn't be their 2nd best WR and that is Thomas.
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I like Dillard more and think he's the more talented WR.
 
Multiple Scores said:
JohnnyU said:
Wadsworth said:
cstu said:
(KFFL) Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter mentioned WR Mike Thomas and WR Jarett Dillard as possible options for the team's No. 2 receiver spot, reports Jaguars.com's Vic Ketchman.
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Options, but right now it look like Williamson is WR2. There is a youth movement in Jax which obviously could come into play and Thomas may well be the more gifted receiver anyways. But for now Troy seems to be WR2.
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Not sure why it wouldn't be their 2nd best WR and that is Thomas.
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I like Dillard more and think he's the more talented WR.
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Probably not.
 
Mike Thomas mentioned in this article

4. Mike Thomas might be my favorite breakout candidate for 2010.

I have to admit that it's always a bit hard to talk up my sleepers so early in the process, but I suppose I wouldn't be much of a fantasy writer if I kept such players to myself. (Please commence the "who says you're much of a fantasy writer anyway?" jokes ...)

At some point I might avoid drafting Thomas in a mock to see where others value him, but I couldn't let him get out of Round 11 in either of my drafts so far. This is a guy who set the Pac-10 record for career receptions, has sub-4.5 speed in the 40, turned in the best catch rate for any wideout in the league with at least 30 receptions last year (77 percent) and suddenly has a prime opportunity to start.

Officially, Thomas is expected to compete with Troy Williamson to start opposite Mike Sims-Walker. Unofficially, could Williamson even bet on himself at this point?

Thomas caught three fewer passes than Torry Holt last season in 41 fewer targets. Even if Thomas can get to just 90 targets in his second season (which would be 13 fewer than Holt had over 15 games) and sees his catch rate dip to 65 percent, that would still put him around 60 receptions. I see that as Thomas' floor for 2010, especially with David Garrard apparently primed for his best season. I like Thomas a lot as a fourth receiver - especially in PPR - and love him in the 11th round.

 
todd2006 said:
I own Dillard for the next 3 years at a great price. That said, i'd rather have Thomas.
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I own both took them in the 3rd and 4th round last year took Dillard 1st then Thomas 2nd. I read a report that was very high on them last year and when your in the 3rd/4th rounds it was worth a roll of the dice. So what happened MSW was the one to blow up.I drafted Mike Thomas hoping he will be the next Steve Smith (Car). I took Smith back in 2001 as the 29th pick in my rookie draft and look what he has become.I had a really good feeling about Thomas (not so much about Dilliard but read good things last year about him)
 
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Faust said:
Mike Thomas mentioned in this article

4. Mike Thomas might be my favorite breakout candidate for 2010.

I have to admit that it's always a bit hard to talk up my sleepers so early in the process, but I suppose I wouldn't be much of a fantasy writer if I kept such players to myself. (Please commence the "who says you're much of a fantasy writer anyway?" jokes ...)

At some point I might avoid drafting Thomas in a mock to see where others value him, but I couldn't let him get out of Round 11 in either of my drafts so far. This is a guy who set the Pac-10 record for career receptions, has sub-4.5 speed in the 40, turned in the best catch rate for any wideout in the league with at least 30 receptions last year (77 percent) and suddenly has a prime opportunity to start.

Officially, Thomas is expected to compete with Troy Williamson to start opposite Mike Sims-Walker. Unofficially, could Williamson even bet on himself at this point?

Thomas caught three fewer passes than Torry Holt last season in 41 fewer targets. Even if Thomas can get to just 90 targets in his second season (which would be 13 fewer than Holt had over 15 games) and sees his catch rate dip to 65 percent, that would still put him around 60 receptions. I see that as Thomas' floor for 2010, especially with David Garrard apparently primed for his best season. I like Thomas a lot as a fourth receiver - especially in PPR - and love him in the 11th round.
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I believe that Thomas' catch rate was the best in the league (for WRs) since 2001 (no one seems to have target data any further back)- its better than any of Welker's years- even with a 67% completion % Brady throwing to him- if he gets Holts targets he could go for 65 catches @12 y/c pretty easily. It really wouldn't be to much of a stretch to see him get 120 targets if he continues and builds on his effectiveness from last year..

 
baconisgood said:
Faust said:
Mike Thomas mentioned in this article

4. Mike Thomas might be my favorite breakout candidate for 2010.

I have to admit that it's always a bit hard to talk up my sleepers so early in the process, but I suppose I wouldn't be much of a fantasy writer if I kept such players to myself. (Please commence the "who says you're much of a fantasy writer anyway?" jokes ...)

At some point I might avoid drafting Thomas in a mock to see where others value him, but I couldn't let him get out of Round 11 in either of my drafts so far. This is a guy who set the Pac-10 record for career receptions, has sub-4.5 speed in the 40, turned in the best catch rate for any wideout in the league with at least 30 receptions last year (77 percent) and suddenly has a prime opportunity to start.

Officially, Thomas is expected to compete with Troy Williamson to start opposite Mike Sims-Walker. Unofficially, could Williamson even bet on himself at this point?

Thomas caught three fewer passes than Torry Holt last season in 41 fewer targets. Even if Thomas can get to just 90 targets in his second season (which would be 13 fewer than Holt had over 15 games) and sees his catch rate dip to 65 percent, that would still put him around 60 receptions. I see that as Thomas' floor for 2010, especially with David Garrard apparently primed for his best season. I like Thomas a lot as a fourth receiver - especially in PPR - and love him in the 11th round.
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I believe that Thomas' catch rate was the best in the league (for WRs) since 2001 (no one seems to have target data any further back)- its better than any of Welker's years- even with a 67% completion % Brady throwing to him- if he gets Holts targets he could go for 65 catches @12 y/c pretty easily. It really wouldn't be to much of a stretch to see him get 120 targets if he continues and builds on his effectiveness from last year..
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he also had a really low yards per catch 9.4, meaning he was used on a lot safe plays. something to watch especially in non-ppr leagues.http://www.nfl.com/players/mikethomas/profile?id=THO309019

 
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I am a fan of Thomas as a player, moreso as an NFL player than Fantasy.

I will say though, he is one of my least favorite players in terms of attitude. Saw him push his coach during his senior year at Arizona during their bowl game. Classy.

 
coolnerd said:
baconisgood said:
Faust said:
Mike Thomas mentioned in this article

4. Mike Thomas might be my favorite breakout candidate for 2010.

I have to admit that it's always a bit hard to talk up my sleepers so early in the process, but I suppose I wouldn't be much of a fantasy writer if I kept such players to myself. (Please commence the "who says you're much of a fantasy writer anyway?" jokes ...)

At some point I might avoid drafting Thomas in a mock to see where others value him, but I couldn't let him get out of Round 11 in either of my drafts so far. This is a guy who set the Pac-10 record for career receptions, has sub-4.5 speed in the 40, turned in the best catch rate for any wideout in the league with at least 30 receptions last year (77 percent) and suddenly has a prime opportunity to start.

Officially, Thomas is expected to compete with Troy Williamson to start opposite Mike Sims-Walker. Unofficially, could Williamson even bet on himself at this point?

Thomas caught three fewer passes than Torry Holt last season in 41 fewer targets. Even if Thomas can get to just 90 targets in his second season (which would be 13 fewer than Holt had over 15 games) and sees his catch rate dip to 65 percent, that would still put him around 60 receptions. I see that as Thomas' floor for 2010, especially with David Garrard apparently primed for his best season. I like Thomas a lot as a fourth receiver - especially in PPR - and love him in the 11th round.
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I believe that Thomas' catch rate was the best in the league (for WRs) since 2001 (no one seems to have target data any further back)- its better than any of Welker's years- even with a 67% completion % Brady throwing to him- if he gets Holts targets he could go for 65 catches @12 y/c pretty easily. It really wouldn't be to much of a stretch to see him get 120 targets if he continues and builds on his effectiveness from last year..
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he also had a really low yards per catch 9.4, meaning he was used on a lot safe plays. something to watch especially in non-ppr leagues.
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Sure, but quite a few players have a low y/c without coming close to 77%. I don't think the 77% is sustainable but it is still impressive and indicates that he is likely to be a productive receiver for the foreseeable future.

 
baconisgood said:
coolnerd said:
baconisgood said:
Faust said:
Mike Thomas mentioned in this article

4. Mike Thomas might be my favorite breakout candidate for 2010.

I have to admit that it's always a bit hard to talk up my sleepers so early in the process, but I suppose I wouldn't be much of a fantasy writer if I kept such players to myself. (Please commence the "who says you're much of a fantasy writer anyway?" jokes ...)

At some point I might avoid drafting Thomas in a mock to see where others value him, but I couldn't let him get out of Round 11 in either of my drafts so far. This is a guy who set the Pac-10 record for career receptions, has sub-4.5 speed in the 40, turned in the best catch rate for any wideout in the league with at least 30 receptions last year (77 percent) and suddenly has a prime opportunity to start.

Officially, Thomas is expected to compete with Troy Williamson to start opposite Mike Sims-Walker. Unofficially, could Williamson even bet on himself at this point?

Thomas caught three fewer passes than Torry Holt last season in 41 fewer targets. Even if Thomas can get to just 90 targets in his second season (which would be 13 fewer than Holt had over 15 games) and sees his catch rate dip to 65 percent, that would still put him around 60 receptions. I see that as Thomas' floor for 2010, especially with David Garrard apparently primed for his best season. I like Thomas a lot as a fourth receiver - especially in PPR - and love him in the 11th round.
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I believe that Thomas' catch rate was the best in the league (for WRs) since 2001 (no one seems to have target data any further back)- its better than any of Welker's years- even with a 67% completion % Brady throwing to him- if he gets Holts targets he could go for 65 catches @12 y/c pretty easily. It really wouldn't be to much of a stretch to see him get 120 targets if he continues and builds on his effectiveness from last year..
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he also had a really low yards per catch 9.4, meaning he was used on a lot safe plays. something to watch especially in non-ppr leagues.
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Sure, but quite a few players have a low y/c without coming close to 77%. I don't think the 77% is sustainable but it is still impressive and indicates that he is likely to be a productive receiver for the foreseeable future.
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Unless he improves that poor number he is trending towards being Davone Bess, who with 76 catches was ranked 45-50 in non-ppr leagues( but 30-35 ish in pprs) ...i.e. a below average bye week guy in start 3 WR leagues. the percentage of catches is outstanding, but doing stuff ( yards and/or Tds) with those catches is more important from both an NFL and fantasy standpoint and 9.4 YPC/1 TD is doing next to nothing. Assuming my memory is correct, his pure quickness/speed numbers indicate a player who has the ability to do more than type of usage that Jacksonville employeed in 2009, but it is not like Jacksonville has a high octane passing game or an above average QB to make up for any shortcomings of thomas (or dillard for that matter). Not saying he is worthless, but my expectations are severely tempered at the moment.
 
http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/nfl_news.cfm?news_id=1474

Every starting receiver has value. Even on the weakest passing teams, you should always know who is their top two wideouts. Those two are on the field most often and have the highest potential for looks and receptions. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a fairly weak passing team, but you should know that Mike Thomas has been named the team's starter, opposite of Mike Sims-Walker, coming out of OTAs. So said head coach Jack Del Rio last week. Thomas, a fourth-round pick from last year's draft, caught 48 passes and 453 yards and a touchdown last season. He caught 13 of those passes in the last two games of last season. Jarett Dillard, Troy Williamson and Tiquan Underwood seem to be his main competition for the job when the Jaguars open training camp.

Fantasy Analysis:

Thomas is only 5-foot-8, so he's not really among your prototypical starting wideouts. He's better suited as a slot receiver. Underwood didn't catch a pass during his 2009 rookie season, but he was reportedly one of the team's best performers during OTAs. Dillard didn't do much either last year, but he is currently No. 3 on Del Rio's early depth chart. And we all remember Troy Williamson. A former first-round pick turned massive bust in Minnesota. He was slated to be the Jags' No. 1 WR prior to last season, but an injury took him out of action after week two. This position battle is far from over, but Thomas has the slight edge right now. Sims-Walker is still the clear top dog and should be a sufficient second WR in 12-team leagues. Thomas, or any of the Jaguars' other receivers, are nothing more than bench quality at the moment. But someone is going to break out as a starter and that person should be worth a flier late in a deep draft.

Source:

jaguars.com

 
(Rotoworld) Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio said that Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard are his No. 2 and 3 receivers right now.

Analysis: The sure-handed Thomas goes just 5'8/195, but it sounds like the Jaguars are prepping him for more than just a slot-receiver role. The competition for wide receiver snaps opposite Mike Sims-Walker will go into camp, with Dillard and Troy Williamson pushing Thomas. For now, Thomas is a late-round flier that is more valuable in PPR formats.

 
I grabbed Thomas last year because Waldman was high on him. IIRC, Matt compared him to Steve Smith. Not saying that Matt said he would be the next Steve Smtih, but Matt pointed out that Thomas, much like Smith, is a short WR with exceptional athletic ability. a 40+ inch vertical, good speed, and attacks the ball.

 
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High praise from ESPN's Scouts Inc. with another comparison to Steve Smith:

But Thomas is my guy. I really like this second-year wide receiver. A four-year starter for the University of Arizona, Thomas was ultraproductive in the Pac-10. At 5-foot-8 and 198 pounds, he’s not the biggest guy around. However, Thomas understands how to play the position and make plays.

Despite his size, he is physical and very aggressive. I hesitate to make this comparison, but Thomas has a lot of the same qualities as the Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith. Don’t be surprised when you see more and more from Thomas that reminds you of Smith, who I still consider an elite wideout in this league. I am not exaggerating. Thomas is the real deal and he is capable of salvaging this passing game.

 
Ray Finkle said:
High praise from ESPN's Scouts Inc. with another comparison to Steve Smith:But Thomas is my guy. I really like this second-year wide receiver. A four-year starter for the University of Arizona, Thomas was ultraproductive in the Pac-10. At 5-foot-8 and 198 pounds, he’s not the biggest guy around. However, Thomas understands how to play the position and make plays.Despite his size, he is physical and very aggressive. I hesitate to make this comparison, but Thomas has a lot of the same qualities as the Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith. Don’t be surprised when you see more and more from Thomas that reminds you of Smith, who I still consider an elite wideout in this league. I am not exaggerating. Thomas is the real deal and he is capable of salvaging this passing game.
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He is probably one of the most overlooked and underrated young WR's in the league. In a PPR league, I think he could end up a low end wr2 by 2011 and maybe this year.
 
Thomas made plenty of plays at the Jaguars Intersquad Scrimmage last night. His hands are like glue and he is lightning quick out of cuts. He is super physical across the middle and welcomed press coverage on the line. He's a mini (and less talented) version of Steve Smith. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he caught 80 passes this year while defenses take away MSW.

 
JPeso said:
Thomas made plenty of plays at the Jaguars Intersquad Scrimmage last night. His hands are like glue and he is lightning quick out of cuts. He is super physical across the middle and welcomed press coverage on the line. He's a mini (and less talented) version of Steve Smith. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he caught 80 passes this year while defenses take away MSW.
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Great stuff. Thanks JPeso.
 
feeling much better about getting him as a throw in for a trade. Thanks for your input guys.

Anyone concerned about system limitations? Garrard at QB? Lots of targets with MJD & MSW getting most of the looks. Probably sharing some with Marcedes Lewis (positive reports), Dillard, and Zach Miller is vying for a role flexed out.

 
loose circuits said:
feeling much better about getting him as a throw in for a trade. Thanks for your input guys. Anyone concerned about system limitations? Garrard at QB? Lots of targets with MJD & MSW getting most of the looks. Probably sharing some with Marcedes Lewis (positive reports), Dillard, and Zach Miller is vying for a role flexed out.
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That's my main concern...Garrard and the stagnant nature of this passing offense. Thomas' rookie numbers looked eerily similar to Steve Smith's 2nd year numbers, and we know how that turned out for Smith (WR11, 100+ receptions). But I don't see Garrard capable (or given the opportunity) of a 4,000 yard season, nor has he ever been as prolific in the red zone.
 
Jason Wood said:
loose circuits said:
feeling much better about getting him as a throw in for a trade. Thanks for your input guys. Anyone concerned about system limitations? Garrard at QB? Lots of targets with MJD & MSW getting most of the looks. Probably sharing some with Marcedes Lewis (positive reports), Dillard, and Zach Miller is vying for a role flexed out.
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That's my main concern...Garrard and the stagnant nature of this passing offense. Thomas' rookie numbers looked eerily similar to Steve Smith's 2nd year numbers, and we know how that turned out for Smith (WR11, 100+ receptions). But I don't see Garrard capable (or given the opportunity) of a 4,000 yard season, nor has he ever been as prolific in the red zone.
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I don't think Garrard has to approach 4000 yards for Thomas (or any WR) to be successful. Delhomme Has never passed for 4000 yards. Smith still posted consistent 1000 yard seasons when Jake was hitting 3200-3400 yards. Garrard's averaged about 3600 yards the past couple seasons.Not to say Thomas will be as prolific as Smith, but you don't need a 4000 yard passer to be fantasy (or NFL) relelvant.
 
identikit said:
Jason Wood said:
loose circuits said:
feeling much better about getting him as a throw in for a trade. Thanks for your input guys. Anyone concerned about system limitations? Garrard at QB? Lots of targets with MJD & MSW getting most of the looks. Probably sharing some with Marcedes Lewis (positive reports), Dillard, and Zach Miller is vying for a role flexed out.
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That's my main concern...Garrard and the stagnant nature of this passing offense. Thomas' rookie numbers looked eerily similar to Steve Smith's 2nd year numbers, and we know how that turned out for Smith (WR11, 100+ receptions). But I don't see Garrard capable (or given the opportunity) of a 4,000 yard season, nor has he ever been as prolific in the red zone.
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I don't think Garrard has to approach 4000 yards for Thomas (or any WR) to be successful. Delhomme Has never passed for 4000 yards. Smith still posted consistent 1000 yard seasons when Jake was hitting 3200-3400 yards. Garrard's averaged about 3600 yards the past couple seasons.Not to say Thomas will be as prolific as Smith, but you don't need a 4000 yard passer to be fantasy (or NFL) relelvant.
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But Smith was (is) the focal point of the passing offense. Thomas won't be, MSW is the #1 guy, so Thomas isn't going to be getting nearly the same targets Smith received IMO.I still like him a lot in ppr though.
 
todisco1 said:
identikit said:
Jason Wood said:
loose circuits said:
feeling much better about getting him as a throw in for a trade. Thanks for your input guys. Anyone concerned about system limitations? Garrard at QB? Lots of targets with MJD & MSW getting most of the looks. Probably sharing some with Marcedes Lewis (positive reports), Dillard, and Zach Miller is vying for a role flexed out.
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That's my main concern...Garrard and the stagnant nature of this passing offense. Thomas' rookie numbers looked eerily similar to Steve Smith's 2nd year numbers, and we know how that turned out for Smith (WR11, 100+ receptions). But I don't see Garrard capable (or given the opportunity) of a 4,000 yard season, nor has he ever been as prolific in the red zone.
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I don't think Garrard has to approach 4000 yards for Thomas (or any WR) to be successful. Delhomme Has never passed for 4000 yards. Smith still posted consistent 1000 yard seasons when Jake was hitting 3200-3400 yards. Garrard's averaged about 3600 yards the past couple seasons.Not to say Thomas will be as prolific as Smith, but you don't need a 4000 yard passer to be fantasy (or NFL) relelvant.
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But Smith was (is) the focal point of the passing offense. Thomas won't be, MSW is the #1 guy, so Thomas isn't going to be getting nearly the same targets Smith received IMO.I still like him a lot in ppr though.
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Agreed. PPR will help Thomas significantly IMO.The 'need to be a 4000 yard passer' argument for a WR to be relevant/successful is my main issue.
 
JPeso said:
Abraham said:
Relative to his ADP, wouldn't a 55/720/6 season be a great value?
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I'd be shocked if he averaged 13 yards-per-catch and caught 6 TD. A stat line of 70/750/2 would not surprise me at all though.
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I'm predicting 70/820/5 so somewhat similar. From a dynasty perspective I like him much more in a slot/Welker type of role where I think he could be a fantasy wr2 in ppr...but that also requires that Jax gets a real QB (hoping for Luck next year)
 
DansRams said:
I'm predicting 70/820/5 so somewhat similar. From a dynasty perspective I like him much more in a slot/Welker type of role where I think he could be a fantasy wr2 in ppr...but that also requires that Jax gets a real QB (hoping for Luck next year)
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I don't think this is really true. We can come up with tons of examples of WRs putting up great stats without very good QBs. Also, as mentioned above, Thomas' catch rate was the highest in the NFL last year so obviously he doesn't have a problem catching the balls Garrard throws.
 
Mike Thomas distinguishing himself during camp

One guy who stood out was receiver Mike Thomas.

When he wasn't throwing to tight ends or running backs, David Garrard's favorite target during this morning's practice was Thomas.

He went to Thomas on three consecutive throws during team drills. Deep once, then a short pass to the right, which Thomas had to jump up to catch. Garrard went right to Thomas on the third pass, but Falcons cornerback Brent Grimes got in his way and broke up the pass.

Mike Sims-Walker is pretty set in as the first starter and for Garrard, the quicker he knows who his second guy is going to be, the better.

"I told him during one of the periods that if he keeps making those plays I'm going to keep throwing the ball to him," Garrard said. "That's the truth. We are looking for someone to separate and really take that two spot. He's kind of doing it."
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http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/42981...+Times-Union%29
 
...and more of the same

Thomas star of morning practice

FLOWERY BRANCH, GA—Mike Thomas strengthened his hold on the number two wide receiver job with a best-in-class performance Monday morning at the Atlanta Falcons training facility. Thomas made several receptions in the Jaguars’ first venture into the combined-practices regimen of Jack Del Rio’s eight training camps as the team’s head coach.

“Mike’s been making big plays. Mike’s determined to take a step forward. He’s an explosive player. He’s fighting for that role right now,” Del Rio said of Thomas and his attempt to secure the “number two receiver” designation.

Thomas made three receptions in skeleton drills. Two were throws from David Garrard, the most impressive of which was a deep-out completion that started the drill. Garrard completed four of six passes in the drill and backup quarterback Luke McCown was three of four.

In 11-on-11, special categories work, Thomas made two more receptions, including a fingertip grab over the middle on the final pass of the session. The special categories were first-down runs and third-down blitzes. Garrard was three of five and McCown completed one of four passes.

“We continue to talk about ‘Mike T’ because he continues to make plays. I told him if you continue to make plays I’m going to continue to throw the ball to you,” Garrard said. “Hopefully, his confidence will continue to grow so we can solidify that number two spot.”
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http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?i...test+Content%29
 
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
...and more of the same

Thomas star of morning practice

FLOWERY BRANCH, GA—Mike Thomas strengthened his hold on the number two wide receiver job with a best-in-class performance Monday morning at the Atlanta Falcons training facility. Thomas made several receptions in the Jaguars’ first venture into the combined-practices regimen of Jack Del Rio’s eight training camps as the team’s head coach.

“Mike’s been making big plays. Mike’s determined to take a step forward. He’s an explosive player. He’s fighting for that role right now,” Del Rio said of Thomas and his attempt to secure the “number two receiver” designation.

Thomas made three receptions in skeleton drills. Two were throws from David Garrard, the most impressive of which was a deep-out completion that started the drill. Garrard completed four of six passes in the drill and backup quarterback Luke McCown was three of four.

In 11-on-11, special categories work, Thomas made two more receptions, including a fingertip grab over the middle on the final pass of the session. The special categories were first-down runs and third-down blitzes. Garrard was three of five and McCown completed one of four passes.

“We continue to talk about ‘Mike T’ because he continues to make plays. I told him if you continue to make plays I’m going to continue to throw the ball to you,” Garrard said. “Hopefully, his confidence will continue to grow so we can solidify that number two spot.”
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http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?i...test+Content%29
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Will be interesting to see if he can keep it up in the preseason. Considering how poor the Jax secondary is, the fact that he is torching them should be taken with a grain of salt. But the kid does have skills, if he had gone to a SEC or Big 12 school he wouldn't be such a secret.
 
Dawg Pound 69 said:
Will be interesting to see if he can keep it up in the preseason. Considering how poor the Jax secondary is, the fact that he is torching them should be taken with a grain of salt. But the kid does have skills, if he had gone to a SEC or Big 12 school he wouldn't be such a secret.
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They were practicing against the Falcons.
 
Jaguars Camp Report By Adam Schefter

• Last season, Jaguars wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker exploded onto the scene, much to the pleasure of Jacksonville and his fantasy football owners. This season, Sims-Walker is predicting that wide receiver Mike Thomas will do the same.

"He's going to be special this year," Sims-Walker said about Thomas, who set the franchise rookie record last season with 48 catches. "He's so versatile. He can play inside or outside, be a return man. He does it all."

Sims-Walker went so far as to call Thomas, a fourth-round pick out of Arizona, the Jaguars' training camp MVP.

 
(RotoWire) Mike Thomas has not only solidified the Jags' No. 2 receiver spot, he has often outplayed No. 1 receiver Mike Sims-Walker during training camp, according to the Florida Times-Union.

Analysis: While the Jags don't pass that much, Thomas could be the team's breakout star this year. Sims-Walker has a lengthy injury history and proved unreliable in the latter half of the 2009 season, so it could be Thomas, and not Sims-Walker, who is the Jags' leading receiver by year's end. He's worth a late-round flier at this point, especially in deeper leagues.

 
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I've been drafting him whenever possible after round 10. The only concern I've ever had with Thomas is whether he's paired with a QB that will "throw open" the receiver. If Garrard can have that faith in the guy, we're looking at a player with Steve Smith-like ability (not as good, but good enough to be a fantasy factor). He frequently made the most of his limited downfield opportunities with the Wildcats, but his QB play was not at the level to maximize his potential as a college player. The TE has not been a big part of the Jags offense in recent years and I think Thomas' versatility outside or in the slot can really be a boon for fantasy owners.

 
the spanker said:
Alfredo Garcia said:
the spanker said:
Has the Jags D improved enough to say the offense won't pass as much this year?
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The Jags D wasn't worth much last year, and the team was still in the bottom 10 of passing attempts.
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Wow usually a bad D equates to more passing attempts by the O....interesting.
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Amazingly the Jaguars were actually in plus TOP with that bad defense.
 
JPeso said:
I'd be shocked if he averaged 13 yards-per-catch and caught 6 TD. A stat line of 70/750/2 would not surprise me at all though.
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If everyone stays healthy, its never gonna happen.In the entire tenure of Jack Del Rio coaching this team, the stats strongly do not suggest Thomas will come anywhere close to this number unless he passes Mike Sims-Walker and becomes the #1 WR on this team.

You have to go all the way back to Jimmy Smith to find a WR that has caught 70 passes in a season for the Jags. Over the past 7 seasons, the leading WR has caught an avarage of 60.

In almost every single year during these 7 years, the 2nd leading receiver on the team has been the RB.

The #2 WR in these past 7 seasons has averaged 43 catches a year.

All this has occurred regardless of whether the Jags were having a good year or bad year, had a good defense or average one, or had a good or bad offense. In one particular year, they ranked in the top 2 in average offensive yards per game, but the stat lines stayed remarkably the same.

Its nothing against Thomas or his talent. Its just simply that this team's style suggests that when they are good, they are gonna play defense and run, run, run, and that limits the airing it out. When they are bad and pass more, they aren't a team with enough offensive creativity to light up a score board. Del Rio has been there since 2003 and every year the end numbers are almost identical when it comes to FF production from these three positons.

So, if MSW gets hurt or Thomas becomes the #1 in some other fashion; doesn't really matter. The #1 WR in this offense has only caught 70 or more balls twice in almost a decade so I don't see that there will suddenly be some morphing of this team to where the #2 suddenly is putting up numbers that the #1 has been struggling to achieve for the past 7 seasons.

Sometimes you simply are what you are.

 
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