RB stats from 2007... (1 Viewer)

Donnie Brasco said:

Nice, compilation of data. I'm impressed on how far back you managed to chart..Do you think the explosion of pass happy teams has had some additional effect on the amount of carries RB's have been receiving?

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Dirty Weasel said:

Donnie Brasco said:

Nice, compilation of data. I'm impressed on how far back you managed to chart..Do you think the explosion of pass happy teams has had some additional effect on the amount of carries RB's have been receiving?

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Not really. I think passing has increased/carries have decreased over the years for many reasons.Firstly, carries were spread out over more RB's in the past, thus allowing teams to rush much more. In 1978, the average NFL team had 574 carries (RB1's averaged 222). In 2007, the average NFL team had 437 carries (RB1's averaged 234), and last year was considered a down year for RB1's. So, even though there were an average of 137 less carries to go around, RB1's carries went up by 12. Compare that to RB2 (down by 46), RB3 (also down by 46), RB4 (down by 36), RB5 (down by 17), and RB6 (down by 9). Of the 28 teams in 1978, only CHI had less than 5 RB's with at least 1 carry. Of the 32 teams in 2007, 19 teams had less than 5 RB's with at least 1 carry.Secondly, "chicks dig the long ball". Teams just aren't as fun to watch when they are grinding out yards on the ground, and the NFL knows this. Football is a spectator sport, and fans demand excitement. Enter the forward pass. True football fans can watch and enjoy a great defensive battle, but the average fan finds this boring. Remember the days of "Air Coryell" in the early 80's? As a Chargers nut I certainly do. They were fun to watch, but they really weren't that great, because their defense sucked. They did start the passing craze as I see it though. Prior to Dan Fouts throwing for 4K in 1979, only Joe Namath in 1967 reached that mark. Since Fouts' 4K season in 1979, at least 1 QB has topped 4K every season except 1997 (not counting the shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons). Since 2000, an average of 4 QB's per season reach the 4K mark.Passing to RB's has actually decreased over the years. Here are the averages:1978/1979 - 94 catches by RB's1980-1985 - 100 catches by RB's1986-1990 - 90 catches by RB's1991-1995 - 90 catches by RB's1996-2000 - 84 catches by RB's2001-2006 - 80 catches by RB'sEven though RB catches have decreased over the past 30 years, there is only one RB that has increased during that time. No, it's not RB2 or RB3; it's RB1 (the guy who also gets the most carries). So, who is the RB with the biggest decrease in catches? It's RB2. If I told you that the NFL is heading towards a RBBC is just a myth, I'd probably get shot. But after looking at 30 yrs worth of data, I find myself staring at the firing squad. RB1 has increased in both carries and catches during the past 30 years. All other RB's have decreased, with RB2 decreasing the most in both carries and catches. Personally, I feel that the human body, in terms of punishment, is being tested and pushed to it's limits at RB. As RB's grow in size, so do the defenders. This makes for a more volatile collision. Think of it this way - have you ever seen 2 little kids run into each other at full speed without padding? They usually get up giggling. Now, take those same kids and add 200 pounds to each. One, or both, may not be giggling after the same collision. What was once considered a monster RB is now just above the average guy (Eric Dickerson was 220lbs, Earl Campbell was 232lbs).OK, that's enough stats for now. Time to put on my bulletproof vest and wait for the RBBC guys to fire away.

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Dirty Weasel said:

Wow, I though you were heading the other way on that issue, but maybe I wasn't grasping all of the numbers. So you basically think increased RBBC is a myth based on the numbers you've seen? The decrease in percentage "usage" of RB1 seems to lean the other way, but as you said, that could be explained by injury as well.

What do the percentage of total for RB1 touches (rushes and catches) look like over the past 10 years or so? Seems like that would be as easy an indicator of RBBC (or lack of) as we could look at no? Clearly, 2007 was a rough year for RB1, but you seem to indicate the opposite trend overall.

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Ask and you shall receive. Here are the raw stats for RB's over the past 10 seasons:Carries (# is percentage of total team carries)

Code:

http://www.uploading.com/files/OBJC04UK/RBBC.ppt.html[/URL]

Seeing the chart above gives you an actual picture of how RB distribution of workload has changed over the past 30 years. [B] The numbers dipped a tad last year for RB1's, but I think that can be attributed to the amount of injuries in 2007.[/B]  I'm not ready to call it a trend towards RBBC just yet.  Let's see how 2008 pans out.

[/QUOTE]I don't think that is the primary explanation--injury rates in 2007 were a little above average, but not significantly so.  In fact, I'm pretty sure 1999 (Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, etc.), 2001 (James, Taylor, etc.), and 2004 all had higher injury rates among the previous year's top 20 performers, just among the years you highlight.  [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=398"]As I noted in here[/URL] six weeks in to the last season, the high carry games were at their lowest level since 1995 (which is as far back as the individual games database goes) through the first 6 weeks of 2007.  I will agree with you that the talk of RBBC prior to last year was premature, as the workhorse back was still alive and well.  But last year was different.  The question is of course trend (rebounding back toward the way things were 20+ years ago) or anomaly.

In my opinion, the most likely explanation does have something to do with injuries, just not primarily those in 2007.  As I note in more detail in the post, the issue is a lack of healthy star 25-27 year old running backs.  It is this age group that has "carried the mail" in terms of total touches traditionally, but was lacking in sufficient numbers in 2007.  Willie Parker has been the top back in the 27 year old group in 2007, and he was leading the league in carries before his injury.  Portis rebounded for the 26 year old group, but several others never made it to this age healthy enough (Kevin Jones for example).  Ronnie Brown was the lone healthy star 25 year old, until he tore his ACL.

This year, Gore, Jackson, Addai and Barber turn 25, among others, and Ryan Grant emerged as a 25-year old rookie midway through 2007.  Still, if you look at the top 3 in preseason fantasy projections, we have a 23 year old 2nd year player and two 29 year olds.  Only 4 players have recorded 325 or more rushing attempts at age 29 in NFL history, and the 23 year olds have a higher rate of serious injury with a heavier workload than those between 25 and 27.

My guess, were going to have a rebound from last year, but not to the levels of 1998-2004 in terms of RB1 touches on an individual game basis.

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Dirty Weasel said:

Every year, I chart every carry by every player in the NFL, then put it into an excel spreadsheet. Here are some fun facts from 2007:- Thomas Jones (310 carries) and Leon Washington (71 carries) were the only RB's to carry for the Jets. Since 1978 (that's as far as my spreadsheet goes back) there have only been 3 other times that 2 RB's accounted for all of a team's RB carries. In 1995, Garrison Hearst (284 carries) and Larry Centers (78 carries) were the only Cardinal RB's to get a carry. In 1999, only Edgerrin James (369 carries) and Keith Elias (13 carries) toted the rock. And in 2002, Fred Taylor (287 carries) and Stacey Mack (98 carries) accomplished the feat for the Jaguars. I assume these are the only 4 instances in NFL history, since before 1978 teams ran the ball way more than they threw it.- Only 6 RB's topped 300 carries. This ties years 1997 and 1999 as the lowest amount since 1993 (when only 2 RB's had 300+).- RB1's (defined as the RB with the most carries for their team) accounted for 53.65% of their team's total carries. This is the lowest percentage since 1996 (53.51%).- RB2's (defined as the RB with the second most carries for their team) accounted for 23.40% of their team's total carries. This is the highest percentage since 1985 (24.35%).- Clinton Portis led the league with 325 carries. This was the lowest total since 1990, when Earnest Byner had 297 carries, also for the Redskins.- Only 2 RB's had over 70% of their team's total carries. Edgerrin James was at 80.6%, and Frank Gore was at 72.8%. The last time 2 or less RB's had over 70% was 14 years ago.So, what to make of these figures? Well, either it was an injury riddled season for RB's, or there was a movement towards RBBC. Personally, I think it's a bit of both, but with more emphasis on injuries. I know I'm probably in the minority on this, but there were only 9 RB1's who played in all 16 games. And, of those 9, only 5 were not considered in a RBBC (Portis, Edge, LT, TJ, and LenDale). Foster, Dunn, and Barber played in all 16, but were clearly in a RBBC. Kenny Watson led the Bengals with 178 carries and played in all 16 games, but Rudi (170 carries) was the true starter and got injured.

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Dirty Weasel said:

Secondly, "chicks dig the long ball". Teams just aren't as fun to watch when they are grinding out yards on the ground, and the NFL knows this. Football is a spectator sport, and fans demand excitement. Enter the forward pass. True football fans can watch and enjoy a great defensive battle, but the average fan finds this boring. Remember the days of "Air Coryell" in the early 80's? As a Chargers nut I certainly do. They were fun to watch, but they really weren't that great, because their defense sucked. They did start the passing craze as I see it though. Prior to Dan Fouts throwing for 4K in 1979, only Joe Namath in 1967 reached that mark. Since Fouts' 4K season in 1979, at least 1 QB has topped 4K every season except 1997 (not counting the shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons). Since 2000, an average of 4 QB's per season reach the 4K mark.

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year	rb aypc qb nay/a diff2007	4.45	5.11	 0.662006	4.50	5.02	 0.512005	4.37	4.98	 0.602004	4.50	5.23	 0.722003	4.48	4.83	 0.352002	4.48	4.97	 0.492001	4.31	4.82	 0.522000	4.30	4.85	 0.551999	4.15	4.81	 0.651998	4.26	4.91	 0.661997	4.31	4.79	 0.491996	4.17	4.77	 0.601995	4.26	5.04	 0.781994	4.02	5.02	 0.991993	4.12	4.78	 0.661992	4.31	4.53	 0.221991	4.22	4.86	 0.641990	4.36	4.89	 0.531989	4.19	4.88	 0.691988	4.29	4.69	 0.401987	4.16	4.71	 0.551986	4.23	4.59	 0.361985	4.48	4.47	-0.011984	4.35	4.63	 0.281983	4.40	4.56	 0.161982	4.13	4.38	 0.251981	4.33	4.58	 0.251980	4.25	4.45	 0.201979	4.32	4.20	-0.121978	4.24	3.66	-0.581977	4.06	3.17	-0.881976	4.30	3.74	-0.561975	4.23	3.58	-0.661974	4.11	3.55	-0.551973	4.27	3.41	-0.861972	4.33	3.78	-0.561971	4.23	3.47	-0.761970	3.99	3.76	-0.22

Dirty Weasel said:

The last few posts in this thread are awesome. Digging deeper into the "why" of things certainly helps project future trends. I know I was dumbing down the "chicks dig the long ball" thing, and Chase did a great job with his explanation. Every rule change in the NFL will affect some stats. For example, if they add or take 5 seconds off the play clock, that would increase/decrease the total number of plays.P.S. At least 13 RB's will reach the 300+ touch mark in 2008.

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