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#1 Pick in 12 Team PPR Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)

R

rocketsauce

Footballguy
I haven't seen any official "#N Pick" thread popping up yet, but we had our Draft Lotto today, and I'm picking at the top in my 12 team PPR ReDraft.

I don't know if there is a ton of discussion to have about the first pick, but it's more that 2/3 turn that I'm interested in talking about. I personally intend to take Adrian Peterson, without another thought.

I'm in the camp that you need to go RB-RB this year, so I intend to select an RB at the turn (hopefully Sproles, CJ, Ridley, whatever falls) and then my top ranked WR. Even if is Rodgers & Brees are staring me in the face, I plan to pass on them.

The 4/5 turn is where I'll consider Cam/Brady/Ryan, if they're around, because the next drop to the 6/7 tier often times can see the top 12 QBs off the board, and to me, once you get past Romo, you are left picking up the pieces.

In my handful of mocks, the 6/7 turn has been a mess. WR hits the end of a tier for me, with Decker & Steve Smith going off just before. RB has gone dry at that point, as we get into the backup tier (Fred Jackson, Pierce, etc.) and TE is just more of the same crap, and I'm good on waiting till TE till the 10th round or later.

Well, just my initial thoughts -- I'm sure they'll adapt and change as the players and perceptions do. But if you got the top spot in your Re-Draft, let's talk some strategy, results, and ideas.

 
I like the strategy. I have pick #2 in my 12 team standard redraft and I've done 50+ mocks and a lot of thinking. Ignoring that I have a much more difficult choice in which RB to draft first, the picks at the turns are pretty much the same thing...other than your being able to pick both at once making the first pick around the turn a little easier.

My current plan for a standard draft, starting with the, is to either:

Plan A

2/3 - RB/WR, if the available RB is good enough. Which RB's qualify for me here is uncertain. Obviously PPR would be different here in terms of specific RB's.

4/5 - WR/WR

6/7 - QB/BPA, likely grabbing Romo, Luck, or Stafford (preferably Romo), TE only if it's Witten or Tony G...maybe Vernon Davis

Plan B

2/3 - RB/WR as above

4/5 - WR/QB, Cam, Ryan, or Brady

6/7 - WR/BPA

Plan C

2/3 - WR/WR

4/5 - RB/RB, consider this RBBC for RB2, it would involve at least one high risk guy like Ryan Mathews

6/7 - QB/WR, hoping for Romo, would probably take Luck or Stafford if available

Plan D

2/3 - WR/QB, taking Rodgers, Brees, or maybe Manning

4/5 - RB/RB, again RBBC for RB2

6/7 - WR/BPA

So, really, I have it down to two main variables. One is where to take the QB. An elite guy at the 2/3 turn, a really solid guy at 4/5, or hope that Romo is there at 6/7. I prefer the Romo option, but of course what sucks there is that I don't find out if he's still available until I've already passed up all the other options.

The other is whether or not to take a RB at the 2/3 turn. It's tough to come into the 4/5 turn with only 1 RB, but with the massive run at the position in the first two rounds, you are necessarily coming in at the end of the run. In some drafts especially RB's get hit HARD and there is excellent (IMO) value at QB/WR there. The price here is that I'd have to use a turn on RB's instead of just taking the one guy at 2/3.

 
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Agreed on the Romo idea. Ultimately what I would prefer is to load up on WR and RB value picks, and land Romo (or better) at that 6/7 turn. Unfortunately if you miss on Romo, you're in a world of hurt. I'm not burning my 6/7 pick on Eli, and waiting will likely mean I get into Cutler territory. A dangerous game.

As you said, it is really tough to come to that 4/5 pick with 1 RB. I did one notable mock earlier where I landed Chris Ivory there -- and I'm happy with him as an RB2 when paired with Peterson. Leveon Bell was also there, if that's more your flavor.

Another factor in my league is that we are 6 pt per TD pass, and now in our 13th year, we've seen this lead to different things in different years. Last year there were 4 QBs selected in the first round, but of course we were coming off that insane ground-breaking year in 2011. Cam went at 3.02, with Peyton/Ryan going at the 4/5 turn. In 2011, 3 QBs went before the 2/3 turn, with Rivers going at the turn for the 4th QB. So I guess I need to decide if my league will continue to be QB happy, or if they will buy into the mentality that there are 12 great QBs, and you can wait. At 6 pts per TD pass, I'm thinking it'll still be a little heavier on QBs, and I'm fine with that. I definitely won't buy into a QB run if Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton go by the 2/3 turn. I'd be much happier stockpiling value picks and ending up having to start Tannehill Week 1 than getting overwhelmed and taking Matt Ryan at the 2/3 turn or something nutty.

Sorry for the wall of text -- just spitballing.

 
Leonidas said:
The other is whether or not to take a RB at the 2/3 turn. It's tough to come into the 4/5 turn with only 1 RB, but with the massive run at the position in the first two rounds, you are necessarily coming in at the end of the run. In some drafts especially RB's get hit HARD and there is excellent (IMO) value at QB/WR there. The price here is that I'd have to use a turn on RB's instead of just taking the one guy at 2/3.
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So if you are picking at the end of round two when the first two rounds are going to be heavily RB (estimate 18 in the first two rounds), what dropoff are you expecting to get in the RB position from 2.11 and 4.11? There won't be too many RBs coming off the board since most teams will already have two. Now, if your league flexes a position so a team can start three running backs, then you may have an issue since there could be a number oc teams who conceivably start RB/RB/RB and bank on WR depth to carry the day in the middle rounds, in which case the drop from 2.11 to 4.11 would be much sharper. But if you wait until later to score your RBs, then you get the great benefit of being on the front end of the WR run in rounds 3 and 4 for the small cost of missing out on the next... what... 8 RBs?

I am more and more convinced that at either turn, going WR/WR at the first double-pick is the way to go.

 
I'm not in a PPR, but its 12 team with 2RBs and 3WRs, no flex.

The "best" mock I have come away with is:

1. Peterson

2. Graham

3. MJD

4. Nicks

5. Decker

6. Vereen

7. Luck

8. Danario Alexander

9. Bernard Pierce

10. Josh Gordon

11. Ronnie Hillman

12. Pierre Thomas

13. Nate Burleson

14. Carson Palmer

The big question is MJD, it seems like such a steal there. If he isn't available or his outlook worsens, I don't really like the RBs I see going there and I might consider Demaryus Thomas in that spot.

 
Junior McSpiffy said:
Leonidas said:
The other is whether or not to take a RB at the 2/3 turn. It's tough to come into the 4/5 turn with only 1 RB, but with the massive run at the position in the first two rounds, you are necessarily coming in at the end of the run. In some drafts especially RB's get hit HARD and there is excellent (IMO) value at QB/WR there. The price here is that I'd have to use a turn on RB's instead of just taking the one guy at 2/3.
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So if you are picking at the end of round two when the first two rounds are going to be heavily RB (estimate 18 in the first two rounds), what dropoff are you expecting to get in the RB position from 2.11 and 4.11? There won't be too many RBs coming off the board since most teams will already have two. Now, if your league flexes a position so a team can start three running backs, then you may have an issue since there could be a number oc teams who conceivably start RB/RB/RB and bank on WR depth to carry the day in the middle rounds, in which case the drop from 2.11 to 4.11 would be much sharper. But if you wait until later to score your RBs, then you get the great benefit of being on the front end of the WR run in rounds 3 and 4 for the small cost of missing out on the next... what... 8 RBs?

I am more and more convinced that at either turn, going WR/WR at the first double-pick is the way to go.
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No flex in mine, so a lot of people will lay off RB for awhile if they open with 2.

I often see more of a WR dropoff there than RB.

I have liked the majority of my mocks where I went WR/WR at the turn. You can get two studs there, and taking two of the RB's available at 4/5 ends up looking pretty good. There are a few WR's usually there at 6/7, and sometimes even 8/9, that I don't mind at all as my WR3.

 
Ilov80s said:
I'm not in a PPR, but its 12 team with 2RBs and 3WRs, no flex.

The "best" mock I have come away with is:

1. Peterson

2. Graham

3. MJD

4. Nicks

5. Decker

6. Vereen

7. Luck

8. Danario Alexander

9. Bernard Pierce

10. Josh Gordon

11. Ronnie Hillman

12. Pierre Thomas

13. Nate Burleson

14. Carson Palmer

The big question is MJD, it seems like such a steal there. If he isn't available or his outlook worsens, I don't really like the RBs I see going there and I might consider Demaryus Thomas in that spot.
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It is rather unusual to get Graham at 2.12, and very unusual to get MJD in round 3. I would never expect that in a real draft.

 
Leonidas said:
Ilov80s said:
I'm not in a PPR, but its 12 team with 2RBs and 3WRs, no flex.

The "best" mock I have come away with is:

1. Peterson

2. Graham

3. MJD

4. Nicks

5. Decker

6. Vereen

7. Luck

8. Danario Alexander

9. Bernard Pierce

10. Josh Gordon

11. Ronnie Hillman

12. Pierre Thomas

13. Nate Burleson

14. Carson Palmer

The big question is MJD, it seems like such a steal there. If he isn't available or his outlook worsens, I don't really like the RBs I see going there and I might consider Demaryus Thomas in that spot.
Click to expand...
It is rather unusual to get Graham at 2.12, and very unusual to get MJD in round 3. I would never expect that in a real draft.
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I don't think Graham will get there in my real draft. In the ESPN Mock, Graham falls there every time and MJD like 2/3 of the time. I have some morons in my real league, but I likely not as dumb as some of the mock drafters at the ESPN site.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Leonidas said:
Ilov80s said:
I'm not in a PPR, but its 12 team with 2RBs and 3WRs, no flex.

The "best" mock I have come away with is:

1. Peterson

2. Graham

3. MJD

4. Nicks

5. Decker

6. Vereen

7. Luck

8. Danario Alexander

9. Bernard Pierce

10. Josh Gordon

11. Ronnie Hillman

12. Pierre Thomas

13. Nate Burleson

14. Carson Palmer

The big question is MJD, it seems like such a steal there. If he isn't available or his outlook worsens, I don't really like the RBs I see going there and I might consider Demaryus Thomas in that spot.
Click to expand...
It is rather unusual to get Graham at 2.12, and very unusual to get MJD in round 3. I would never expect that in a real draft.
Click to expand...
I don't think Graham will get there in my real draft. In the ESPN Mock, Graham falls there every time and MJD like 2/3 of the time. I have some morons in my real league, but I likely not as dumb as some of the mock drafters at the ESPN site.
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I would look at ESPN live draft results and not mocks. Half of the people in mocks don't even take it seriously. They just load up the autopick queue and leave. I've had this happen in several mocks.

 
Our redraft league is also a 12 team PPR that starts 1/2/2/1 + 1 flex. But we are using the 3rd rd reversal drafting format. So our draft goes

1-12

12-1

12-1

12-1

1-12

then normal until the end.

I also have the 1st pick, but there is no "turn" picks for me until the end of the 4th. Anyone else play with this draft format? I'm also gonna take Peterson without a thought but then I'm not sure how things will fall after that.

 
I just had one of my better mocks as well. I avoided QB entirely for the first 5 rounds, knowing that the guys I could take in the Mock were not guys I would believe to be available in my real draft.

1. Peterson

2. MJD

3. Julio Jones

4. Colston

5. Witten

6. Decker

7. Tavon Austin

8. Kaepernick

9. Miles Austin

10. Marcel Reese

11. Maclin

12. Shonn Greene

I forget after this...

We start 2RB/3WR. Obviously RB depth is a pretty huge issue, especially with two bruisers at RB, but I think it was the Witten pick (which I never do, and have no intent really of doing) that sealed that. I just felt he shouldn't have still been out there, as the 5th TE, so I took the value. Kaepernick went as the 12th QB, which I found unusual. Romo and co were gone, so if I missed there, it was Eli or worse. I feel like I can trade some of this WR insanity for a depth RB. But generally, felt this was a pretty successful mock.

 
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Those mocks are out of control.

You won't be getting Julio Jones at pick 24/25 with even quarter-competent competition. Count on it (not happening)

 
GROMS said:
Our redraft league is also a 12 team PPR that starts 1/2/2/1 + 1 flex. But we are using the 3rd rd reversal drafting format. So our draft goes

1-12

12-1

12-1

12-1

1-12

then normal until the end.

I also have the 1st pick, but there is no "turn" picks for me until the end of the 4th. Anyone else play with this draft format? I'm also gonna take Peterson without a thought but then I'm not sure how things will fall after that.
Click to expand...
Um, you're league is doing it wrong. I would hate to have a high first with what you wrote. Third round reversal goes like this:

1 - 12

12 - 1

12 - 1

1 - 12

You might want to talk to your league because they are screwing the high first rounders.

 
DZ2300 said:
Ilov80s said:
Leonidas said:
Ilov80s said:
I'm not in a PPR, but its 12 team with 2RBs and 3WRs, no flex.

The "best" mock I have come away with is:

1. Peterson

2. Graham

3. MJD

4. Nicks

5. Decker

6. Vereen

7. Luck

8. Danario Alexander

9. Bernard Pierce

10. Josh Gordon

11. Ronnie Hillman

12. Pierre Thomas

13. Nate Burleson

14. Carson Palmer

The big question is MJD, it seems like such a steal there. If he isn't available or his outlook worsens, I don't really like the RBs I see going there and I might consider Demaryus Thomas in that spot.
Click to expand...
It is rather unusual to get Graham at 2.12, and very unusual to get MJD in round 3. I would never expect that in a real draft.
Click to expand...
I don't think Graham will get there in my real draft. In the ESPN Mock, Graham falls there every time and MJD like 2/3 of the time. I have some morons in my real league, but I likely not as dumb as some of the mock drafters at the ESPN site.
Click to expand...
I would look at ESPN live draft results and not mocks. Half of the people in mocks don't even take it seriously. They just load up the autopick queue and leave. I've had this happen in several mocks.
Click to expand...
right, I get that. Like I said, it's more of a dream scenario or best case scenario.
 
DZ2300 said:
I would look at ESPN live draft results and not mocks. Half of the people in mocks don't even take it seriously. They just load up the autopick queue and leave. I've had this happen in several mocks.
Click to expand...
right, I get that. Like I said, it's more of a dream scenario or best case scenario.
Click to expand...
I personally wouldn't even use or look at ESPN mocks or live draft results, unless the very "casual" Fantasy Football players are the kind you play with. I'd be using MFL's Live Drafts, or reputable Mock Drafting sites.

 
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Even Yahoo mocks seem to be much more realistic than those. I've done a crapload of them from the #2 position and Graham hasn't fallen to to 2.11 a single time. Not even in mocks where people trolled and took Andrew Luck in the first round, or just went full stupid and took QB's in rounds 1 and 2, was there ever a chance for Graham to even make it to the later middle or end of the second round. He goes in the top half of round two with somebody's second pick, after they took one of the last remaining top end RB's in mid/late round 1, like clockwork.

 
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I will definitely do mocks in other sites. I think the more sites you mock on, the better. In my real league there's a variety of players. There's guys that are mock drafting on ESPN and studying CBS rankings. Other guys are likely FFToday subscribers. There is even one guy that still brings a magazine. I like getting a variety of mocks to see all the angles. I kind of average them together to get an idea of how my draft may go.

 
Mario Kart said:
GROMS said:
Our redraft league is also a 12 team PPR that starts 1/2/2/1 + 1 flex. But we are using the 3rd rd reversal drafting format. So our draft goes

1-12

12-1

12-1

12-1

1-12

then normal until the end.

I also have the 1st pick, but there is no "turn" picks for me until the end of the 4th. Anyone else play with this draft format? I'm also gonna take Peterson without a thought but then I'm not sure how things will fall after that.
Click to expand...
Um, you're league is doing it wrong. I would hate to have a high first with what you wrote. Third round reversal goes like this:

1 - 12

12 - 1

12 - 1

1 - 12

You might want to talk to your league because they are screwing the high first rounders.
Click to expand...
His league is doing it perfectly. Banzai Method.

It makes the draft selection pretty dead even across the board,.

Nobody is getting screwed at all. Check Pasquinos article on it here at FBG.

*In fact every round is exactly the same as a standard draft except the 3rd is flipped. But every single other pick remains the same.

 
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Maybe I'm crazy and maybe it depends on ya lineup requirements. But if U have a chance to pair Peterson up with Brees or Rogers how do you pass that up? It doesn't matter where ya points come from you got the #1 player at the top 2 highest scoring positions!!

 
It's been mentione a few times already in this thread, but don't put too much faith in the mock drafts. Too many picks are auto-picks based solely on the default ADP info of the site you are using to draft. It does give you a sense of the type of players that might be available but you are still going to need to react accordingly. Even going into your draft with a set strategy of what positions you'd like to take in each round, I'd try to use a "tiered" approach as you consider options for your Round 2/3 picks and Round 4/5 picks. Who are your top Tier RBs/WRs/TE/QBs that you would consider at 2/3? Then 4/5? I think you need to identify these players and then draft based on best player available from the remaining players in each of your tiers.

Good Luck in your draft.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/07pasquino_trr12.php

Finally, the clear winner is Third Round Reversal, or "Banzai" style of drafting. Right at the start after four rounds, the variation is just 2% in point values and it even gets smaller as the draft progresses, ultimately approaching just 1% difference.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we are doing this:

Third Round Serpentine or "Banzai" - "Banzai" is an alternative draft method has gained popularity in recent years. This style is often confused with Third Round Reversal (See #2), but it is actually a much simpler draft format. Only Round 3 is reversed from the original "snake" draft order, so the person going last in Round 1 gets to go first in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. The owner who has the first overall pick doesn't start a round again until Round 5

I haven't done this before so I'm curious if anyone else has played in this format and drafted from the #1 position

 
hotboyz said:
Maybe I'm crazy and maybe it depends on ya lineup requirements. But if U have a chance to pair Peterson up with Brees or Rogers how do you pass that up? It doesn't matter where ya points come from you got the #1 player at the top 2 highest scoring positions!!
Click to expand...
Because you still might get more points by taking a stud WR1 or a very solid RB2 with that pick + a solid QB later.

 
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Leonidas said:
hotboyz said:
Maybe I'm crazy and maybe it depends on ya lineup requirements. But if U have a chance to pair Peterson up with Brees or Rogers how do you pass that up? It doesn't matter where ya points come from you got the #1 player at the top 2 highest scoring positions!!
Click to expand...
Because you still might get more points by taking a stud WR1 or a very solid RB2 with that pick + a solid QB later.
Click to expand...
How often is a WR 1 or a RB 2 gonna score more than the #1 Qb. Especially if u think u have already drafted the #1 RB? Ok if u take #1 Qb u gonna get a lesser RB or WR but so what doesn't matter what position the points come from I don't care how deep QB Is there is a big gap from #1 Qb to say #5 or #6. If you come away from draft with top RB and top Qb I bet chances are really good that you will be in the playoffs!

 
hotboyz said:
Leonidas said:
hotboyz said:
Maybe I'm crazy and maybe it depends on ya lineup requirements. But if U have a chance to pair Peterson up with Brees or Rogers how do you pass that up? It doesn't matter where ya points come from you got the #1 player at the top 2 highest scoring positions!!
Click to expand...
Because you still might get more points by taking a stud WR1 or a very solid RB2 with that pick + a solid QB later.
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How often is a WR 1 or a RB 2 gonna score more than the #1 Qb. Especially if u think u have already drafted the #1 RB? Ok if u take #1 Qb u gonna get a lesser RB or WR but so what doesn't matter what position the points come from I don't care how deep QB Is there is a big gap from #1 Qb to say #5 or #6. If you come away from draft with top RB and top Qb I bet chances are really good that you will be in the playoffs!
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You failed to comprehend my post.

 
hotboyz said:
Maybe I'm crazy and maybe it depends on ya lineup requirements. But if U have a chance to pair Peterson up with Brees or Rogers how do you pass that up? It doesn't matter where ya points come from you got the #1 player at the top 2 highest scoring positions!!
Click to expand...
It isn't my plan, but it's not terrible or anything. Rodgers and Pererson are a great pair. However, the dropoff in potential between Rodgers and QBs available in rounds 7-10 isn't that great IMO. Also, you only need 1 QB. The dropoff at WR and esoecially RB is much greater and you need a multitude of them.

 
If you come out of 1st 2rds with Peterson and Rogers you gonna get maybe 55 pts a wk from those 2 alone if u are a knowledgable FF owner I'm sure u can get 85 pts from rest if ya draft that's 135 to 140 per wk you will make playoffs!

 
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hotboyz said:
If you come out of 1st 2rds with Peterson and Rogers you gonna get maybe 55 pts a wk from those 2 alone if u are a knowledgable FF owner I'm sure u can get 85 pts from rest if ya draft that's 135 to 140 per wk you will make playoffs!
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But you can say that about just about anyone? How many points do you get if you pair Peterson with Demaryus Thomas? And if you are a knowledgeable FF owner, you can get Matt Ryan with 5.1 or a slight downgrade at 6.12.

 
Junior McSpiffy said:
hotboyz said:
If you come out of 1st 2rds with Peterson and Rogers you gonna get maybe 55 pts a wk from those 2 alone if u are a knowledgable FF owner I'm sure u can get 85 pts from rest if ya draft that's 135 to 140 per wk you will make playoffs!
Click to expand...
But you can say that about just about anyone? How many points do you get if you pair Peterson with Demaryus Thomas? And if you are a knowledgeable FF owner, you can get Matt Ryan with 5.1 or a slight downgrade at 6.12.
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I don't think he understand the concept of opportunity cost, or the principles of VBD.

 
Leonidas said:
Junior McSpiffy said:
hotboyz said:
If you come out of 1st 2rds with Peterson and Rogers you gonna get maybe 55 pts a wk from those 2 alone if u are a knowledgable FF owner I'm sure u can get 85 pts from rest if ya draft that's 135 to 140 per wk you will make playoffs!
Click to expand...
But you can say that about just about anyone? How many points do you get if you pair Peterson with Demaryus Thomas? And if you are a knowledgeable FF owner, you can get Matt Ryan with 5.1 or a slight downgrade at 6.12.
Click to expand...
I don't think he understand the concept of opportunity cost, or the principles of VBD.
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Lmao I kno the principles of vbd I also kno the principles of common sense if I have the #1 RB and I have a chance to take my #1qb I'd be crazy to turn that down. As deep as WR are only way I pass on the #1qb is if Graham there then I consider it

 
Leonidas said:
Junior McSpiffy said:
hotboyz said:
If you come out of 1st 2rds with Peterson and Rogers you gonna get maybe 55 pts a wk from those 2 alone if u are a knowledgable FF owner I'm sure u can get 85 pts from rest if ya draft that's 135 to 140 per wk you will make playoffs!
Click to expand...
But you can say that about just about anyone? How many points do you get if you pair Peterson with Demaryus Thomas? And if you are a knowledgeable FF owner, you can get Matt Ryan with 5.1 or a slight downgrade at 6.12.
Click to expand...
I don't think he understand the concept of opportunity cost, or the principles of VBD.
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Lmao I kno the principles of vbd I also kno the principles of common sense if I have the #1 RB and I have a chance to take my #1qb I'd be crazy to turn that down. As deep as WR are only way I pass on the #1qb is if Graham there then I consider it

I just dont think the Qb gonna be as close as everyone thinks last yr was last yr

 
GROMS said:
BigSteelThrill said:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/07pasquino_trr12.php

Finally, the clear winner is Third Round Reversal, or "Banzai" style of drafting. Right at the start after four rounds, the variation is just 2% in point values and it even gets smaller as the draft progresses, ultimately approaching just 1% difference.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we are doing this:

Third Round Serpentine or "Banzai" - "Banzai" is an alternative draft method has gained popularity in recent years. This style is often confused with Third Round Reversal (See #2), but it is actually a much simpler draft format. Only Round 3 is reversed from the original "snake" draft order, so the person going last in Round 1 gets to go first in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. The owner who has the first overall pick doesn't start a round again until Round 5

I haven't done this before so I'm curious if anyone else has played in this format and drafted from the #1 position
Click to expand...
I have been doing the third round reverse for about 5 yrs and IMO it works out perfect. Every year people choose spots from all over the board based on personal preference. The bonzai method may have been more equal a few years ago with players like Lt, priest Holmes, or Faulk giving #1 pick such a monster advantage, but using bonzai method today I think puts the up front players at a disadvantage. This article was done 3 or 4 yrs ago I think ( haven't updated subscription yet to see date) and I would love to see the analysis done again.

 
just finished our draft yesterday.. drew the ace so i wasnt too excited to have the first pick but it actually worked out well. alot of players fell to me so i was a bit surprised. most of my mocks didnt turn out too well which i assume is a benefit to have a live fast paced draft.. people start making mistakes when the computer isnt doing their ADP automaticly for them

this is a 10 team ppr keeper league with cam in the 11th and amendola in the 12th

start 1 qb 2 rb 3 wr 1 te 1 flex

ap

forte

roddy

vjax

a brown looking back at this i should have went david wilson

dmc

jordy

eli

josh gordon

jordan cameron

cam

amendola

v brown

tyler eifert

gronk

akers

over all a decent yield.. i still feel the 5th to 7th pick is the best in a 10 teamer this year

 
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Did a 12 team IDP ppr last night and from 1.01 I got

1 AP

2 MJD

3 J.Graham (shocked)

4 VJax

5 Colston

6 IDP

7 IDP

8 M.Williams

9 IDP

10 Vereen

11 Hillman

12 Hopkins

13 E Sanders

 
In my mind there are really only 2 plays from 1.01 that make much sense. I'm talking 2RB/3WR leagues (PPR or standard) starting at the 2/3 turn.

1: RB/WR: if you like MJD this year this is a fine start. Of the RBs available here some of the time, he is the only one who could give you top 5 or 6 production. It's a risk because of his injury, but he's the most calculated risk IMO. If you play PPR I could see Bush here if available but I think he ends the year as a RB2 so you don't get as much upside (but take less risk IMO)

2: WR/WR: gives you the higher floor and more importantly, leaves you options at the 4/5. Your # 2 will possibly be better than some people's #1. If I did this I would go with someone like Marshall/Fitz (or both) and some like Thomas.

Unless Graham falls to you (shouldn't but if you play with guppies it's possible) other combinations don't make sense from a VBD standpoint IMO. I favor option 2 myself mostly because it allows for more chances later and opens yourself up to take a reliable TE (read: Witten) at the 4/5 turn or go RB/RB if 2 decent guys happen to fall. Flexibility is the name of the game after the first 3 rounds and taking a second RB at 2/3 keeps you more rigid.

 
chickensoup said:
In my mind there are really only 2 plays from 1.01 that make much sense. I'm talking 2RB/3WR leagues (PPR or standard) starting at the 2/3 turn.

1: RB/WR: if you like MJD this year this is a fine start. Of the RBs available here some of the time, he is the only one who could give you top 5 or 6 production. It's a risk because of his injury, but he's the most calculated risk IMO. If you play PPR I could see Bush here if available but I think he ends the year as a RB2 so you don't get as much upside (but take less risk IMO)

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Click to expand...
In addition to MJD look for Demarco Murray and Bush. Most are very down on Murray but he has top end upside and when healthy is a 3 down RB.

 
I just drafted from the 2 slot in a 12 team PPR. A few comments:

  • I was targeting Reggie Bush at 23, but he was taken at 21 so I went WR/WR (D. Thomas and R. White) at the 2/3 turn.
  • Reggie Bush went a little early. Darren Sproles (19) went very early. Otherwise, RBs went about where ADP said early on.
  • Here are the RBs that went between my 3rd and 4th picks, in order: MJD, Ridley, Miller, Gore, Murray, McFadden, Wilson, Ball. I took Ryan Mathews at the next turn.
  • The guy in the first slot also went WR/WR at 2/3 (Andre Johnson & Randall Cobb). He got Le'Veon Bell at the end of the 4th.
  • Graham went at 15. In another PPR league I just drafted in, I took him at 16.
  • QBs fell. I figured on getting Romo, possibly Luck at the 6/7 turn. Got Kaepernick instead. Russell Wilson was still hanging around at 95, so I ended up taking my QB2 early (the guy picking 1st hadn't taken one yet: he was not pleased with me).
 
In the Interboard leagues I had a choice of MJD, Murray, McFadden at the 4/5 turn. We start 1/1/2/1 with 2 flex but a max of two starting RBs. RG3 and Keapernick were both available at 6/7.

 
My latest mock

1.01 ADP RB1

2.12 Thomas WR5

3.01 Julio WR6

4.12 Colston WR18

5.01 Giovanni RB25

6.12 Bernard RB33

7.01 Tate RB34

8.12 Vick QB12

9.01 Romo QB13

10.12 Gates TE11

11.01 Pierre RB46

12.12 Alshon Jeffery WR59

13.01 Gostkowski K1

14.12 Cleveland DST12

15.01 Dwyer flyer...either him or Polk here when draft day comes.

I see 9 non-RB options I will take at the 2-3. Two QBs who will be gone. 6 WRs, Calvin, Dez, Green probably gone leaving Jones, Thomas, Marshall. And Graham, not counting on it though. Our league tends to take 5 QBs before my second pick so there should be some huge value there at RB and WR. WRs are usually flying off the board between my 3rd and 4th pick (14 on average) so I definitely want to lock up 1 and may double dip depending on which RBs are available.

 
I went RB, RB, RB and really like my team. PPR League

AP, Bush, Sproles

Nicks, Wayne, Desean Jackson at WR next three picks

 
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