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The Dreaded 8th Overall Pick (1 Viewer)

R

RalphMouth

Footballguy
This slot is not a good place to be IMHO-

The top RBs are gone. Andre Johnson will be gone & Brees will probably be gone.

Mendenhall & Steven Jackson ... both players I'm affraid of this year are slotted here.

What would you do in this slot?

If I can trade down & pick 12th I may just do that as this way I can still get a top 3 WR and follow

with possibly Grant.

** please move to Assistant Coach Forum ** sorry... thought I was there

 
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In order: whoever is left: (Assuming Andre Johnson is gone which is not a lock)

Turner

Fitzgerald

Brees/Rodgers

S Jackson

D Williams

Moss

I like the 8th spot, I would be really happy with M Turner there

 
mattsam said:
In order: whoever is left: (Assuming Andre Johnson is gone which is not a lock)TurnerFitzgeraldBrees/RodgersS JacksonD WilliamsMossI like the 8th spot, I would be really happy with M Turner there
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If we assume these guys are still there I LOVE Michael Turner in this spot and don't mind DeAngelo Williams either.
 
Why on earth are you afraid of Steven Jackson? Only one RB has finished as a RB1 (12th or better) for 6 straight years. That would be Steven Jackson. And even then, he has missed games in each of those years. And played for a historically poor offense. His situation really can't get worse than Keith Null, can it?

I love this spot this year, because I get an earlier second rounder for a guy who will be considered top 5 next season if he plays all 16. And if he plays 14 or 13 like usual, I'll have 13 or 14 games of top 3 production and a matchup play.

Also, no need to AC this, we can make it into an "8th pick strategy" thread.

 
i hate 7-9.

i feel like it's a stretch to take a QB that early.

and i don't think the RBs/WRs there are any locks to be the best player on a great team.

i probably go mendenhall, maybe rodgers/brees depending on scoring.

 
Warhogs said:
mattsam said:
In order: whoever is left: (Assuming Andre Johnson is gone which is not a lock)TurnerFitzgeraldBrees/RodgersS JacksonD WilliamsMossI like the 8th spot, I would be really happy with M Turner there
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If we assume these guys are still there I LOVE Michael Turner in this spot and don't mind DeAngelo Williams either.
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Well if he is stating that Brees and Johnson are gone, and say Gore goes then Turner is there right? It would be down to Turner or Gore
 
Turner, Dwill, Sjax in that order.

Too early for QB

Moss, Wayne, Fitz i am leery of

Greene, Charles, Matthews, Mendy to early.

 
Put me down for DeAngelo Williams as well. I think he'll command 60% of about 500 carries for the Panthers.

Great talent, stud pedigree, great o-line, running philosophy, decent schedule, and top-3 upside if Stewart misses any games.

My local redraft league is 6 points for all TDs so I want to land Peyton in round 2. I think he's in for one of those "carry your fantasy team" type real close to 40 TD seasons.

It's also a third round reversal so I don't have much input after that other than I'd like another RB in round 3 like Chris Wells or Cedric Benson. There's a ton of WR value in rounds 4-6 in my opinion, so I'd like to have two RBs and a stud QB before round 4.

 
You should do OK with the 8th pick even if the top 5 RB's (CJ,AP,MJD,Rice,Gore) are gone. There's a chance that Andre Johnson could be there at 8 for you.After the 5 RB's I listed you'll have a shot at a couple of good players even if Johnson is gone. If it's PPR then Steven Jackson's not a bad pick at all and I wouldn't be afraid to take him with the 8th pick. If it's non-PPR there'd still be Michael Turner, who I have as RB6 to have a good year . Randy Moss would be there if you wanted a top WR talent, which Moss should finish top 3 in receiving this year.

So the way I see it with the top 5 backs and possibly Andre Johnson off the board you'll have a shot at one of the 3 next best players available to choose from. One of Turner, Steven Jackson or Randy Moss will be there for you at 8. If you're not thrilled with one of those 3 and if Brees & Johnson are gone then there's always QB Aaron Rodgers which would be an excellant pick if your league gives 6 pts. per TD pass. I think the 8th pick is not a bad pick at all.

When your pick rolls around at 8 take one of Turner, Steven Jackson, Randy Moss, Aaron Rodgers or maybe with a little luck Andre Johnson slips to you. I'd be happy with any one of those guys with my first pick.

 
In my money league draft (ppr) I took Frank Gore at the 8 spot.

Turner - Wayne went before my pick.

My plan was to take SJAX or Moss.

 
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I little bit more info-

12 team redraft league- 3 rd round reversal

1 keeper per team

Chris Johnson, A. Rogers & D Will are all keepers and not available. I have Beanie Wells as my keeper.

The owner picking 6th has a man crush for Turner so I fully expect him to be gone.

I'm aware that S. Jackson is a beast but between his off season surgery, the Rams poor O line & a rookie QB I think a different player may be a better way to go.

 
RalphMouth said:
I little bit more info-12 team redraft league- 3 rd round reversal1 keeper per teamChris Johnson, A. Rogers & D Will are all keepers and not available. I have Beanie Wells as my keeper.The owner picking 6th has a man crush for Turner so I fully expect him to be gone.I'm aware that S. Jackson is a beast but between his off season surgery, the Rams poor O line & a rookie QB I think a different player may be a better way to go.
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Totally different then, S Jackson might be your best shot. Fitz would be nice, he will still perform. I think he will be double covered and Matt will just throw to him non stop. I would probably take Fitz in this spot
 
sjax at #8 for sure. Their o-line is going to be solid with LT Jason Smith , RT Staffold, C Jason Brown, and Guards Jacob Bell and John Greco . This is a very solid o-line with a chance to be spectacular.

 
bulger2holt said:
sjax at #8 for sure. Their o-line is going to be solid with LT Jason Smith , RT Staffold, C Jason Brown, and Guards Jacob Bell and John Greco . This is a very solid o-line with a chance to be spectacular.
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Spectacular might be over doing it. If Jackson is showing that he's healthy in training camp and preseason he should definitely be in consideration at #8. Just saw him on ESPN discussing an 18 game regular season. He's such a monster.
 
Grahamburn said:
bulger2holt said:
sjax at #8 for sure. Their o-line is going to be solid with LT Jason Smith , RT Staffold, C Jason Brown, and Guards Jacob Bell and John Greco . This is a very solid o-line with a chance to be spectacular.
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Spectacular might be over doing it. If Jackson is showing that he's healthy in training camp and preseason he should definitely be in consideration at #8. Just saw him on ESPN discussing an 18 game regular season. He's such a monster.
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Why wouldn't you pick Jackson?
 
Slightly off topic, but I hand picked the 8th slot in a dynasty start up league (slots 1-4, 9 & 10 were taken) and I really like that slot since I have my eyes on Fitz and didn't want to chance him being gone at the 11th pick.

Then I think being in the middle of each of the rounds gives you nice value falling to you each time. Best rb or wr available in rounds 2-4 gives you a team that looks like

Fitz

Grant/Greene

S Rice/Boldin

Addai

I like that start to my team Even in redraft.

 
I like the 8th slot this year. If Gore is there, then obviously take him and laugh all the way to the bank (he should be a top 4 pick over Ray Rice, imo). If not, you've got your choice of several very awesome options (AJ/Fitz at WR, Brees/Rodgers at QB, SJax/Turner/DWill at RB), none of which is really a wrong choice. Plus, it positions you very close to the middle of the draft order, which is very important in later rounds because it leaves you well poised to jump on players that start to slide for one reason or another (as opposed to the guys drafting towards the end, who might watch a guy slide for a round and a half only to see him snatched up with the pick before theirs).

 
Man, I am not as high on DeAngelo Williams as some of you are.

The way Stewart ripped it up down the stretch last year when Williams was injured, who can say Stew won't be the lead dog this season?

 
Raider Nation said:
Man, I am not as high on DeAngelo Williams as some of you are.The way Stewart ripped it up down the stretch last year when Williams was injured, who can say Stew won't be the lead dog this season?
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As a Stewart owner, I'd love to see it, and I do think it's telling that JStew has more 25 carry games in the last 5 weeks last year (3) than Williams has in his entire career (2). Obviously Carolina brass thinks Stewart is capable of being a Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson type workhorse. Still, I think DeAngelo has to remain the lead dog until he gives some reason why he shouldn't be anymore. The guy has averaged 5.5 and 5.2 ypc over the last two seasons. Outside of the Tampa game where Williams got injured early, there wasn't a single game all season where Stewart put up more rushing yards than Williams.
 
SSOG said:
Plus, it positions you very close to the middle of the draft order, which is very important in later rounds because it leaves you well poised to jump on players that start to slide for one reason or another (as opposed to the guys drafting towards the end, who might watch a guy slide for a round and a half only to see him snatched up with the pick before theirs).
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Interesting. I hadn't thought about it that way. Yes, I have done this before. Unwittingly, in the 4th, I started the TE run by taking Gates and the guys who were behind me got shut out and had to go TE by committe. It certainly seems less stressful to draft from the middle and not watch 22 straight picks go off the board and feel your heart sink.
 
I've got 8th spot in one of my WCOFF leagues and I"m not so happy about it. I really feel uncomfortable picking outside the top 6. Everyone after ADP/CJ2k/Gore/MJD/Rice/AJ has some serious question marks. I will be deciding between:

1) Steven Jackson - He's a beast, but can he stay healthy?

2) DeAngelo Williams - He's uber talented, but so is Jonathon Stewart. Will the split become 50/50 this year?

3) Michael Turner - Studly, but doesn't catch enough balls.

4) Randy Moss - Getting up there in age.. Can he still produce at a top 3-5 level?

5) Reggie Wayne - Also getting up there in age and his production really dropped in the 2nd half of last year.

In a recent mock draft I ended up taking Steven Jackson at 1.08 and DeAngelo Williams at 2.05.

 
footballman_696969 said:
I've got 8th spot in one of my WCOFF leagues and I"m not so happy about it. I really feel uncomfortable picking outside the top 6. Everyone after ADP/CJ2k/Gore/MJD/Rice/AJ has some serious question marks. I will be deciding between:1) Steven Jackson - He's a beast, but can he stay healthy?2) DeAngelo Williams - He's uber talented, but so is Jonathon Stewart. Will the split become 50/50 this year?3) Michael Turner - Studly, but doesn't catch enough balls.4) Randy Moss - Getting up there in age.. Can he still produce at a top 3-5 level?5) Reggie Wayne - Also getting up there in age and his production really dropped in the 2nd half of last year.In a recent mock draft I ended up taking Steven Jackson at 1.08 and DeAngelo Williams at 2.05.
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Brees or Rodgers down? Over the last two years, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have both produced more VBD than any player except for Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson.
 
SSOG said:
Raider Nation said:
Man, I am not as high on DeAngelo Williams as some of you are.The way Stewart ripped it up down the stretch last year when Williams was injured, who can say Stew won't be the lead dog this season?
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As a Stewart owner, I'd love to see it, and I do think it's telling that JStew has more 25 carry games in the last 5 weeks last year (3) than Williams has in his entire career (2). Obviously Carolina brass thinks Stewart is capable of being a Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson type workhorse. Still, I think DeAngelo has to remain the lead dog until he gives some reason why he shouldn't be anymore. The guy has averaged 5.5 and 5.2 ypc over the last two seasons. Outside of the Tampa game where Williams got injured early, there wasn't a single game all season where Stewart put up more rushing yards than Williams.
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My thinking is this:DeAngelo had 1,369 total yards on only 245 touches while missing 3 1/2 games. Jackson had 1,738 total yards on a whopping 375 touches and only missed 1 game. Had Williams not missed any time he would have likely had at least 300 more yards and a couple more TDs with Stewart taking 40% of the load. SJAX had 130 more touches than DeAngelo and only managed to score 19 more fantasy points. Even with the timeshare between Williams and Stewart, DeAngelo was and still is a RB1. He also has a much better shot at double digit TDs than SJAX, he'll catch more passes than Turner, and if Stewart misses any time he would be a top 3 running back.DeAngelo's ceiling is enormous and his floor is 1,400 total yards and 10 TDs. He's my top choice from the 8 spot.
 
Instinctive said:
Why on earth are you afraid of Steven Jackson? Only one RB has finished as a RB1 (12th or better) for 6 straight years. That would be Steven Jackson. And even then, he has missed games in each of those years. And played for a historically poor offense. His situation really can't get worse than Keith Null, can it?I love this spot this year, because I get an earlier second rounder for a guy who will be considered top 5 next season if he plays all 16. And if he plays 14 or 13 like usual, I'll have 13 or 14 games of top 3 production and a matchup play.Also, no need to AC this, we can make it into an "8th pick strategy" thread.
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:confused: People were laughing at me when I took him and Frank Gore back to back with the last pick in a 12 teamer. Jackson gets no respect.
 
I just have a sick feeling in my gut when it comes to S. Jackson... wish I didn't

to me I think #8 is a few picks too early for him..

if Welker looks to be back then I think Randy Moss could be a great #8 pick followed by the best

RB on the board in round #2

 
Balco said:
:goodposting: People were laughing at me when I took him and Frank Gore back to back with the last pick in a 12 teamer. Jackson gets no respect.
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Anybody with a pick in the 5-11 range who passed on Frank Gore has forfeited any right they might have had to laugh at you.
 
SSOG said:
Balco said:
:goodposting: People were laughing at me when I took him and Frank Gore back to back with the last pick in a 12 teamer. Jackson gets no respect.
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Anybody with a pick in the 5-11 range who passed on Frank Gore has forfeited any right they might have had to laugh at you.
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Not to mention Steven Jackson...here's a writeup I just put into another thread:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction for one team. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.I would call him one of the top 3 most sure plays in fantasy football right now.
 
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Instinctive said:
SSOG said:
Balco said:
:goodposting: People were laughing at me when I took him and Frank Gore back to back with the last pick in a 12 teamer. Jackson gets no respect.
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Anybody with a pick in the 5-11 range who passed on Frank Gore has forfeited any right they might have had to laugh at you.
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Not to mention Steven Jackson...here's a writeup I just put into another thread:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.I would call him one of the top 3 most sure plays in fantasy football right now.
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good points but our league doesn't do PPR so the lack of TDs have turned me off of him along with a rookie QB and a poor overall team I just have a bad feeling & think there's better talent out there-I'm trying to trade down from 8th - players I like will be there at slot #11 or #12 plus we do 3rd round reversal so I will then be drafting out of the #1 slot the rest of the way-If I could get Randy Moss or Miles Austin at #12 and follow with the best available RB at #13 and then at #25 get a top flight QB (Romo ?) I'll be happy
 
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Instinctive said:
Not to mention Steven Jackson...here's a writeup I just put into another thread:

He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction.
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You might want to edit that before putting it in more threads...Thomas Jones:

2005 - 1335 yds

2006 - 1210 yds

2007 - 1119 yds

2008 - 1312 yds

2009 - 1402 yds

 
Instinctive said:
SSOG said:
Balco said:
:goodposting:

People were laughing at me when I took him and Frank Gore back to back with the last pick in a 12 teamer. Jackson gets no respect.
Click to expand...
Anybody with a pick in the 5-11 range who passed on Frank Gore has forfeited any right they might have had to laugh at you.
Click to expand...
Not to mention Steven Jackson...here's a writeup I just put into another thread:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.

He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.

I would call him one of the top 3 most sure plays in fantasy football right now.
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Historically how many RBs have done it six years in a row?
 
Chaka said:
Instinctive said:
SSOG said:
Balco said:
:thumbup:

People were laughing at me when I took him and Frank Gore back to back with the last pick in a 12 teamer. Jackson gets no respect.
Click to expand...
Anybody with a pick in the 5-11 range who passed on Frank Gore has forfeited any right they might have had to laugh at you.
Click to expand...
Not to mention Steven Jackson...here's a writeup I just put into another thread:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.

He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.

I would call him one of the top 3 most sure plays in fantasy football right now.
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Historically how many RBs have done it six years in a row?
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Not sure. I don't have access to some databases I'd like right now, so I'll do a check-but my guesses would be:LT

Emmitt Smith

Barry Sanders

Perhaps OJ? Before my time...

Dickerson/Campbell---same notation as OJ

 
I don't feel there is a bad spot to draft from in redraft this year. From the 8th it's just going to dictate your strategy a little more with the 2nd tier RB's being so thin and undependable. The top WR's are thin as well, but the 3rd tier is HUGE. Go ahead and grab 2 top WR's, let the others fight for scraps, then you can fill in a good QB1 in the 3rd like maybe Romo or Schaub, maybe grab a Gates or Clark in the 4th on the comeback, and knowing people will be chasing WR's will leave the tier 3-4 RB's open and you can go 3-4 rb's in a row and see what pans out.

 
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Instinctive said:
Chaka said:
Instinctive said:
SSOG said:
Balco said:
:lmao:

People were laughing at me when I took him and Frank Gore back to back with the last pick in a 12 teamer. Jackson gets no respect.
Click to expand...
Anybody with a pick in the 5-11 range who passed on Frank Gore has forfeited any right they might have had to laugh at you.
Click to expand...
Not to mention Steven Jackson...here's a writeup I just put into another thread:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.

He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.

I would call him one of the top 3 most sure plays in fantasy football right now.
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Historically how many RBs have done it six years in a row?
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Not sure. I don't have access to some databases I'd like right now, so I'll do a check-but my guesses would be:LT

Emmitt Smith

Barry Sanders

Perhaps OJ? Before my time...

Dickerson/Campbell---same notation as OJ
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Looking at their career numbers (ProFootballReference)Barry, Campbell, Dickerson & OJ never did it. Walter may have come close depending on your scoring system.Emmitt did (probably 7 in a row) and LT may have gotten 8 in a row.

I like Jackson but asking for six consecutive years as a RB1 is a tall order.

 
Instinctive said:
Why on earth are you afraid of Steven Jackson? Only one RB has finished as a RB1 (12th or better) for 6 straight years. That would be Steven Jackson. And even then, he has missed games in each of those years. And played for a historically poor offense. His situation really can't get worse than Keith Null, can it?I love this spot this year, because I get an earlier second rounder for a guy who will be considered top 5 next season if he plays all 16. And if he plays 14 or 13 like usual, I'll have 13 or 14 games of top 3 production and a matchup play.Also, no need to AC this, we can make it into an "8th pick strategy" thread.
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Because in the playoffs he is usually hurt? He'll get you there but how many have lost with him in the lineup?
 
Chaka said:
I like Jackson but asking for six consecutive years as a RB1 is a tall order.
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:thumbup: Misuse of statistics. 10 yard penalty, loss of down. What are the odds that an RB has 6 consecutive top-12 seasons? Pretty low. What are the odds that an RB has 6 consecutive top-12 seasons given that they've already had 5 in a row? Much better.
 
cr8f said:
Instinctive said:
Why on earth are you afraid of Steven Jackson? Only one RB has finished as a RB1 (12th or better) for 6 straight years. That would be Steven Jackson. And even then, he has missed games in each of those years. And played for a historically poor offense. His situation really can't get worse than Keith Null, can it?I love this spot this year, because I get an earlier second rounder for a guy who will be considered top 5 next season if he plays all 16. And if he plays 14 or 13 like usual, I'll have 13 or 14 games of top 3 production and a matchup play.Also, no need to AC this, we can make it into an "8th pick strategy" thread.
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Because in the playoffs he is usually hurt? He'll get you there but how many have lost with him in the lineup?
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:X to where Jackson is more likely to miss a playoff game than other running backs.
 
two_dollars said:
I don't feel there is a bad spot to draft from in redraft this year.
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That's the attitude you should have but a lot of people just feel there's not a STUD after the top 4 picks or so, then at 8 you could potentially draft a guy that you could easily get at 10 or 11 if things worked out for you. If you could possibly get that same guy at 10 or 11, it makes your 2nd round pick that much stronger as you'd be able to get that strong 2nd round pick.I don't think it's that big of a deal drafting 8, I like being in the middle like that as you can sniff out any runs very easily. I will admit it's nice to say Chris Johnson at the beginning of the draft and look forward to a guy that's going to get you a ton of points all season long but you can still build a very balanced team from the 8 position.I read a lot on here about how the draft or team is won in the first 3 rounds, first 5 rounds whatever. In my experience, you build a solid team from your initial draft. Usually you'll have about 4 to 6 teams where you'd rank in the same tier, never really 1 team that you can say "they're winning it this year" AND it actually happens. (Now the important part) You need to be active on your waiver wire. I can't stress enough even after a good draft how different your Week 16 or 17 lineup can look compared to your week 1, whether it's due to trades or waiver wire pick ups.So stockpile talented players at all positions regardless of your draft position and enjoy your draft, it's a long season.
 
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I have 8 this year in our 12 team ppr league. I am thinking it may go something like this....

1. CJ

2. AD

3. RICE

4. MJD

5. GORE

6. AJ

7. S. JACKSON

With 6 points per passing td, am I crazy to be considering Rodgers here?

 
TD32 said:
I have 8 this year in our 12 team ppr league. I am thinking it may go something like this....1. CJ2. AD3. RICE4. MJD5. GORE6. AJ7. S. JACKSONWith 6 points per passing td, am I crazy to be considering Rodgers here?
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Take Brees over Rodgers, he will have more TDs this year, Rodgers gets a bump up when rushing tds are 6 and passing are 4 points. If there are all 6 pts I like Drew over Aaron.Saying that I still take Turner if that is what is off the board in front of you.
 
I'm in a start 2 QB league, so there's a chance that Rogers and/or another QB get taken in the top 7 along with CJ, Peterson, MJD, Rice, and Andre.

I'm hoping Gore somehow makes it to me. If not, I am going with Turner. If neither are there, I am going for Moss and then plan to wait and see what's left on the comeback.

Hopefully we can post our draft results (or mock draft results here), so we can further look at strategy at this pick in 10 and 12 team leagues.

 
Here's a team I manage to get more often than not, which I LOVE (14 teams)

Brees

Roddy White

Sidney Rice or Crabtree (I can't decide, I like them both. Rice is gone about half the time)

Antonio Gates or Dwayne Bowe (only if Gates is gone)

Pierre Garcon (or Vernon, if I didn't get Gates)

Ahmad Bradshaw (sometimes he doesn't quite make it, in which case Michael Bush or Fred Jackson)

Michael Bush or Fred Jackson or Donald Brown (in that order)

Donald Brown or Laurence Maroney

Laurence Maroney or Devin Hester

It's pretty much BPA between RB/WR after round 7. Actually, it's always BPA...it just seems like BPA is always a WR early, so I shotgun RBs after round 5.

Kicker I'd like to have: Janikowski

Defense: Hopefully the cowboys fall a ways, but I like ARZ too

 
SSOG said:
Chaka said:
I like Jackson but asking for six consecutive years as a RB1 is a tall order.
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:penalty: Misuse of statistics. 10 yard penalty, loss of down. What are the odds that an RB has 6 consecutive top-12 seasons? Pretty low. What are the odds that an RB has 6 consecutive top-12 seasons given that they've already had 5 in a row? Much better.
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I like your logic, but will have to throw it back to you. What is the % of guys with 1000 yards in 5 seasons straight to hit that 6th season versus falling short? How many were on the projected worst team in the NFL? What amount of touches/age did they have at that point...there are a lot more variables and my guess (again, guess) is that we are looking at a 50/50 shot here at best that S-Jax hits 1000 yards rushing. We know he picks up points in PPR and with an inexperienced/weak (Bradford or Feely) QB, that he will get points in PPR. But the guy is literally allergic to the end zone, so we are not getting like compensation if he falls short of 1000K yards. When looking at the 8th overall player to choose in my draft, I want better odds than 50/50 when selecting a guy who will be my #1 pick. If you choose jackson at that point (which is NOT a bad pick), you better go conservative throughout the rest of your draft.
 
Sweet Love said:
I like your logic, but will have to throw it back to you. What is the % of guys with 1000 yards in 5 seasons straight to hit that 6th season versus falling short? How many were on the projected worst team in the NFL? What amount of touches/age did they have at that point...there are a lot more variables and my guess (again, guess) is that we are looking at a 50/50 shot here at best that S-Jax hits 1000 yards rushing. We know he picks up points in PPR and with an inexperienced/weak (Bradford or Feely) QB, that he will get points in PPR. But the guy is literally allergic to the end zone, so we are not getting like compensation if he falls short of 1000K yards. When looking at the 8th overall player to choose in my draft, I want better odds than 50/50 when selecting a guy who will be my #1 pick. If you choose jackson at that point (which is NOT a bad pick), you better go conservative throughout the rest of your draft.
Click to expand...
All of that is well and good, I'm simply saying that it's ludicrous to suggest that a player is less likely to finish in the top 12 this year because he happened to do it last year.Edit: And even more ludicrous to suggest that he's less likely to finish in the top 12 this year because he happened to do it four years ago.
 
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