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Can you really "Predict" Injuries? (1 Viewer)

J

JohnnyTitan

Footballguy
OK everyone. Two weeks of pre-season left. Assuming basically no starters play the final week, there are not many total snaps left for these guys. And many people are having their drafts over the next couple weeks, so I think it's appropriate to start predicting health statuses now.

We all know to stay away from certain players because they are health risks (Chris Brown) while other players are safe bets to play most of the season. (Manning / Favre).

I have no agenda one way or the other, but I want to see with what kind of accuracy we can predict a player's health. I know some FBGs even project their statistics based on a player playing 14 games or 12 games or something like that. How correct is it to assume that these players miss time?

Here are the rules. I want everyone to pick FIVE players that WILL get hurt and miss significant time, and FIVE who WILL NOT miss much time. The cut-off for predictions is the start of the season. You can't pick a player who is currently expected to miss some time at the start of the season.

HURT = 13 or fewer games started

HEALTHY = 14 or more games started

At the end of the season I'll try to make some sense out of the predictions vs actualities. This probably isn't as scientific as it could be, but I just thought of doing this and don't have much time. Hopefully with enough predictions, we'll get the general sense of whether or not we as a group can see injuries coming. Which in turn might help answer the question as to whether or not injuries should be taken into consideration when forecasting stats.

THANKS !!

My List:

HURT

- DeShaun Foster

- Julius Jones

- Keyshawn Johnson

- Rex Grossman

- Larry Johnson :D

HEALTHY

- Farve

- PManning

- Chad Johnson

- Tiki Barber

- Michael Clayton

 
I almost put a KARMA DISCLAIMER in there.

I understand if you don't want to predict. I'm a believer in Karma...but people post in other threads about a player "Being an injury risk" or about how someone won't play a full season.

It's a fine line. I respect people who refuse to list five players, but I'm hoping enough people will type their thoughts to make this interesting.

 
I guess I'll add that if many FBGs post their thoughts with various players being listed, Karma will be too confused to really know how to react. I mean what if a player ends up on both lists? What are the football gods going to do to spite us?

 
JohnnyTitan said:
OK everyone. Two weeks of pre-season left. Assuming basically no starters play the final week, there are not many total snaps left for these guys. And many people are having their drafts over the next couple weeks, so I think it's appropriate to start predicting health statuses now.

We all know to stay away from certain players because they are health risks (Chris Brown) while other players are safe bets to play most of the season. (Manning / Favre).

I have no agenda one way or the other, but I want to see with what kind of accuracy we can predict a player's health. I know some FBGs even project their statistics based on a player playing 14 games or 12 games or something like that. How correct is it to assume that these players miss time?

Here are the rules. I want everyone to pick FIVE players that WILL get hurt and miss significant time, and FIVE who WILL NOT miss much time. The cut-off for predictions is the start of the season. You can't pick a player who is currently expected to miss some time at the start of the season.

HURT = 13 or fewer games started

HEALTHY = 14 or more games started

At the end of the season I'll try to make some sense out of the predictions vs actualities. This probably isn't as scientific as it could be, but I just thought of doing this and don't have much time. Hopefully with enough predictions, we'll get the general sense of whether or not we as a group can see injuries coming. Which in turn might help answer the question as to whether or not injuries should be taken into consideration when forecasting stats.

THANKS !!

My List:

HURT

- DeShaun Foster

- Julius Jones

- Keyshawn Johnson

- Rex Grossman

- Larry Johnson :D

HEALTHY

- Farve

- PManning

- Chad Johnson

- Tiki Barber

- Michael Clayton
Click to expand...
HurtGrossman

Warner

Vick

Carr

Leftwich

Healthy

J Elam

S Graham

N Rackers

J Brown

J Reed

 
I'll play

HURT

Steve Smith

TO

LT2

Favre :eek:

Portis

Healthy

Kurt Warner :eek:

Toomer

Eli Manning

Larry Johnson

Chad Johnson

 
I feel that LT is going down this year. Last year he started taking bigger shots and was dinged up, this year his number is up.

 
Hurt

Kurt Warner

Fred Taylor

Domanick Davis

Chris Brown

T.O.

Not Hurt

Jake Delhomme

Tom Brady

Marvin Harrison

Larry Johnson

Lamont Jordan

Nice idea. Just make sure to followup. I know that somebody over at FFToday did the same thing last season and I never found out what the results were. I'm someone that believes that certain players just are more injury prone and that you can somewhat predict which players will miss time and which player won't.

 
Maybe if you can make a list of players that do not qualify for being on the hurt list. DD, C Mart?

 
Hurt List

Fred Taylor

Chris Brown

Darrell Jackson

Roy Williams (WR)

Steve Smith

Healthy List

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Rudi Johnson

Chad Johnson

Anquan Boldin

I tried to use "lesser" studs who seem to stay healthy.

 
Interesting that while lots of lists rightly have Favre on the healthy side, no one has taken Bledsoe for that list. For his career, Bledsoe has played in fewer than 13 games only once, and that was in 2001. He has started every game in the last four years.

 
No hurt list is complete unless the following are added:

The All Brittle Team

Fraud Taylor

Deshaun Foster

Correll Buckhalter

Chad Pennington

Michael Bennett

Chris Brown

Donte' Stallworth

 
Z-Dog said:
Interesting that while lots of lists rightly have Favre on the healthy side, no one has taken Bledsoe for that list. For his career, Bledsoe has played in fewer than 13 games only once, and that was in 2001. He has started every game in the last four years.
Click to expand...
I thought about putting him on, but with all the Tony Romo talk lately, I figured that could throw a wrench into the mix.
 
Klecko HOF said:
No hurt list is complete unless the following are added:The All Brittle TeamFraud TaylorDeshaun FosterCorrell BuckhalterChad PenningtonMichael BennettChris BrownDonte' Stallworth
Click to expand...
Kurt Warner, Steve McNair & Dom Davis could go on this list, too.FWIW I don't think this is a taboo subject, either. All these players are noted as being risky due to injury concerns relating to their past track record, so they drop in rankings compared to more durable players.
 
Da Guru said:
I feel that LT is going down this year. Last year he started taking bigger shots and was dinged up, this year his number is up.
Click to expand...
I really hate when people use this "logic". How the heck is it someone's turn to get injured? I'm sorry but "gut feelings' have nothing to do with injury. All players are just as likely to get injured on the next play as they were on the play before.
 
texasheat said:
Da Guru said:
I feel that LT is going down this year. Last year he started taking bigger shots and was dinged up, this year his number is up.
Click to expand...
I really hate when people use this "logic". How the heck is it someone's turn to get injured? I'm sorry but "gut feelings' have nothing to do with injury. All players are just as likely to get injured on the next play as they were on the play before.
Click to expand...
Or are they? That's what we're trying to find out! With enough predictions, we might be able to determine if our collective intuition is worth listening to or total BS.Although they may be the exception and not the rule, I recall injury risks such as Isaac Bruce, Steve McNair, Steve Smith and Fred Taylor having spectacular season in the past.
 
Interesting thread, although a bit silly. I'll bite...

Make:

Peyton Manning

Brett Favre

Marvin Harrison

LaDainian Tomlinson

Tom Brady

Break:

Chester Taylor

Ronnie Brown

Steve McNair

Daunte Culpepper

DeShaun Foster

 
Hurt

Dom Davis

Darrell Jackson

Ronnie Brown

Mike Bell (Ron Dayne owner)

Steve Smith

Healthy

P. Manning

E. Manning

C. Johnson

Julius Jones

Javon Walker

 
OK guys. Time is winding down on this. Need more participants to get a good feel for whom FBGs think will stay healthy and who won't.

Deuce McAllister had a good weekend...thoughts on him?

 
HURT

DeShaun Foster

Randy Moss

Chrissy Brown

Carson Palmer

Marc Bulger

HEALTHY

Brett Favre

Peyton Manning

Marvin Harrison

Reuben Droughns

LaDanian Thomlinson

 
Summary so far.

- Dom Davis is obviously now out for the year...but I do know people who drafted him

- DJax, SSmith, TOwens are all a little banged but obviously still getting drafted high...so they count.

- Favre, Tomlinson, LJohnson, JWalker and a few others appear on both lists. Obviously some differeing opinions on these guys!

- I'd like some more predictions, as there is not much in the way of "Consensus" yet. I'd like to garner some more votes and then I can focus on the top 10 on each list.

Hurt List

Code: 
Name-VotesD Foster-5K Warner-4S Smith-4C Brown-4T Owens-3F Taylor-3D Davis-3R Grossman-2L Tomlinson-2R Moss-2D Jackson-2S McNair-2R Brown-2J Jones-1K Johnson-1L Johnson-1D. McAllister-1D. Staley-1J Walker-1J Lewis-1M Vick-1D Carr-1Leftwhich-1B Favre-1C Portis-1S Alexander-1S Moss-1R Williams-1C Buckhalter-1C Pennington-1M Bennett-1D Stalworth-1C Taylor-1D Culpepper-1M Bell-1C Palmer-1M Bulger-1
Healthy List
Code: 
Name	VotesP Manning-6C Johnson-5E Manning-4M Harrison-4B Favre-3L Tomlinson-3L Johnson-3T Brady-3D Bledsoe-1T Barber-1M Clayton-1K Warner-1A Toomer-1Vick-1J Delhomme-1L Jordan-1R Johnson-1A Boldin-1J Jones-1J Walker-1Droughns-1
 
It's possible..once I thought I was going to hit my thumb with a hammer..thank the lord it never happen..hit my index finger good though...see it's possible. :bag:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I see that DeShaun Foster is on just about everyone's list. He'd be on mine, too.

So where'd you guys draft DeAngelo Williams? Is he a guy that you may have reached for, just to make sure you got him? That's what I did. I did the same thing last season when I took Larry Johnson in the 5th round, and it paid off huge. Anyone else target backup RBs to the starters who you feel very strongly will get injured during the season? A very underrated drafting strategy, in my opinion.

 
Borat said:
I see that DeShaun Foster is on just about everyone's list. He'd be on mine, too.So where'd you guys draft DeAngelo Williams? Is he a guy that you may have reached for, just to make sure you got him? That's what I did. I did the same thing last season when I took Larry Johnson in the 5th round, and it paid off huge. Anyone else target backup RBs to the starters who you feel very strongly will get injured during the season? A very underrated drafting strategy, in my opinion.
Click to expand...
Any player can get hurt at any given time..but we have to draft someone true! :banned:
 
hurt

deshaun foster

chris brown

steven jackson

cadillac williams

brian westbrook

healthy

alexander

barber

rudi

bush

 
Solidsteel Rats said:
Any player can get hurt at any given time..but we have to draft someone true! :banned:
Click to expand...
As I've stated a couple times, that's what we're trying to find out.Are our intuitions really better than complete "Randomness". I'm interested to see if our "HURT" players actually do play fewer games than our "HEALTHY" players.
 
JohnnyTitan said:
Solidsteel Rats said:
Any player can get hurt at any given time..but we have to draft someone true! :banned:
Click to expand...
As I've stated a couple times, that's what we're trying to find out.Are our intuitions really better than complete "Randomness". I'm interested to see if our "HURT" players actually do play fewer games than our "HEALTHY" players.
Click to expand...
Then what your seeking is like asking to predict the future...yes then..Paris Hilton will become the USA 1st women president! :lmao:
 
Injury Risks:

Warner

Bledsoe

Caddilac

Foster

Dunn

Tiki

SA

Edge

Westy

R. Moss

TO

Boldin

Galloway

Safer bets:

Peyton

R. Brown

Rudi

FWP

C. Taylor

Wayne

Harrison

#85

Fitz

 
Warrick Dunn plays less than 13 games due to injury. My thoughts are based upon Dunns Age advancing over 31, his increase in workload last year, and his expected use for short yardage and around the goalline. I predict a career high pace for touches and I just do not see him make it thought the season.

While I anticipate people disagreeing, thats my reasoning.

 
HURT:

D. Foster

D. Bledsoe

B. Favre

M. Brunell

R. Grossman

HEALTHY:

P. Manning

M. Hasselbeck

R. Wayne

E. Kennison

R. Droughns

 
HURT = 13 or fewer games started

HEALTHY = 14 or more games started
Click to expand...
comfortably numb said:
HURT

Shaun Alexander CORRECT

Steve Smith Missed 2 games 1 more and I am CORRECT

Terrell Owens If he did OD, I would have nailed this one :) , Regardless I think he will miss another couple games for something

RMoss Does a hurt ego count?

SMoss So far NO good

HEALTHY So far so good good here :thumbup:

Manning

Manning

C. Johnson

LT2

Vick
Click to expand...
 
The astrologers congregated in this thread don't want to believe it, but football injuries are pretty much random and the fact that some guys get hit two or three years in a row is due to the brutality of the NFL, not something inherent in the player.

Declaring a player to be injury prone is like flipping 20 coins three times each and declaring the ones that come up heads three times to be "heads prone."

If a guy is fully recovered from his previous injury at the start of the season, I'll be money that he is no more or less likely to suffer an injury than anyone else if you control for the number of hits he's involved in.

 
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