ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Looks like this never made it to the site so I'll post it here. I was hoping for some more definitive conclusions from the study, but the lack of sample size makes it difficult. However, I still think that there are some interesting trends in the data.
I'll post the introduction here and then I'll link to the whole article as well as the dataset in Zip form.
Comments are welcome.
I. Introduction
One of the most difficult and frustrating experiences in playing fantasy football is checking the weekly injury reports and trying to decide whether or not your player will play in their game. Many a fantasy owner's ulcer has been started by coaches who do as much as possible to cloud their player's true injury status. I think it would help owners a great deal in their weekly start/bench decisions to examine how often injured players actually play and how much they contribute when they do play injured compared to their average fantasy output. I am going to attempt to shed some light on the injury report and how it can be used to its greatest utility by a fantasy football owner.
II. Parameters of the Study
Each week of the 2005 NFL season, I used the Footballguys Friday afternoon Injury Report in the Subscriber section. I entered every injury for every team to a starter at a normal fantasy football position (QB, RB, WR, TE, PK; apologies to IDP owners) for the three levels of injury status: Doubtful, Questionable and Probable. I skipped the Out status because there is never a reason to start a player who is declared out.
For each injured player, I recorded several different variables in the Raw Data section of the spreadsheet:
1) I recorded the week of the injury to see if there were any trends toward more injuries later in the year or more players playing through injuries later in the year.
2) I recorded whether the game is a non-Sunday afternoon game (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday Night, Monday Night) to see if less players play in earlier games or more play in later games.
3) I recorded the player's team to see if there were trends by team, such as Jeff Fisher not understanding the definition of the word "questionable".
4) I recorded the player's opponent and whether it was a division game or not to see if there were patterns of players playing more often in division games.
5) I recorded the player's position to see if there were any trends by position.
6) I checked the current depth chart to ensure that I was talking about "starters" when reporting and comparing this information.
7) I recorded the player's injury status to see if Probable players really do play more than Questionable players.
8) I recorded the actual injured body part to see there were any trends toward certain injuries, like the knee, making a player less likely to play.
9) After the game, I recorded whether the player played and how many fantasy points they scored on a 6/TD, .1 Rush/Rec Yds, .05 Pass Yds scale.
10) After the season, I recorded each players average fantasy points per game for the year and compared it to their points in the games they played hurt.
If it sounds like a lot of work, it was.
Article here: Hit Me
Dataset in Excel format Zipped here: Hit Me
I'll post the introduction here and then I'll link to the whole article as well as the dataset in Zip form.
Comments are welcome.
I. Introduction
One of the most difficult and frustrating experiences in playing fantasy football is checking the weekly injury reports and trying to decide whether or not your player will play in their game. Many a fantasy owner's ulcer has been started by coaches who do as much as possible to cloud their player's true injury status. I think it would help owners a great deal in their weekly start/bench decisions to examine how often injured players actually play and how much they contribute when they do play injured compared to their average fantasy output. I am going to attempt to shed some light on the injury report and how it can be used to its greatest utility by a fantasy football owner.
II. Parameters of the Study
Each week of the 2005 NFL season, I used the Footballguys Friday afternoon Injury Report in the Subscriber section. I entered every injury for every team to a starter at a normal fantasy football position (QB, RB, WR, TE, PK; apologies to IDP owners) for the three levels of injury status: Doubtful, Questionable and Probable. I skipped the Out status because there is never a reason to start a player who is declared out.
For each injured player, I recorded several different variables in the Raw Data section of the spreadsheet:
1) I recorded the week of the injury to see if there were any trends toward more injuries later in the year or more players playing through injuries later in the year.
2) I recorded whether the game is a non-Sunday afternoon game (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday Night, Monday Night) to see if less players play in earlier games or more play in later games.
3) I recorded the player's team to see if there were trends by team, such as Jeff Fisher not understanding the definition of the word "questionable".
4) I recorded the player's opponent and whether it was a division game or not to see if there were patterns of players playing more often in division games.
5) I recorded the player's position to see if there were any trends by position.
6) I checked the current depth chart to ensure that I was talking about "starters" when reporting and comparing this information.
7) I recorded the player's injury status to see if Probable players really do play more than Questionable players.
8) I recorded the actual injured body part to see there were any trends toward certain injuries, like the knee, making a player less likely to play.
9) After the game, I recorded whether the player played and how many fantasy points they scored on a 6/TD, .1 Rush/Rec Yds, .05 Pass Yds scale.
10) After the season, I recorded each players average fantasy points per game for the year and compared it to their points in the games they played hurt.
If it sounds like a lot of work, it was.
Article here: Hit Me
Dataset in Excel format Zipped here: Hit Me
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