Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Seems like I read all the time how Green Bay is looking to replace him, and no one would even CONSIDER him in the first round of a fantasy draft. Folks just seem to be really down on his talent level in general.
But I'm not sure all of that makes much sense.
Grant was one of the most effective runners in the NFL last year, running against one of the toughest running strength of schedules. Can you really do that without any talent?
According to DVOA (which I know isn't perfect, but is fairly revealing IMO), Grant was 13% more effective than the average back in the same circumstances. Johnson, with his record breaking year, was about 15% more effective to give you a feel for where that stands. He carried a 4.44 average, had ZERO fumbles on the year, is relatively cheap, and at 27 years old is just entering his prime. He had 6 TDs in his last 4 regular season games, and then was VERY effective despite limited carries in his one playoff game.
Looking back a little bit, you notice that he's had 1200+ yards for two years in a row, and had 900 yards in his rookie year with only 7 starts. He was hurt in 2008, and his production suffered. But he was still out there and was still reasonably effective. Do you know how many backs had 1200+ rushing in both of the last two years? Three; ADP, Thomas Jones, and Ryan Grant.
Why exactly would Green Bay be going out of their way to replace this guy? Is RB REALLY their biggest need? I just don't get the general perception on Grant.
I'm not saying he's the best RB in the NFL or even top 3 or 4, but I do think he's at LEAST an average starting RB talent in a pretty good situation and I don't think his current fantasy value (particularly in dynasty) reflects that. A lot of folks are waiting for him to get replaced, and I'm not sure that's going to happen any time soon.
But I'm not sure all of that makes much sense.
Grant was one of the most effective runners in the NFL last year, running against one of the toughest running strength of schedules. Can you really do that without any talent?
According to DVOA (which I know isn't perfect, but is fairly revealing IMO), Grant was 13% more effective than the average back in the same circumstances. Johnson, with his record breaking year, was about 15% more effective to give you a feel for where that stands. He carried a 4.44 average, had ZERO fumbles on the year, is relatively cheap, and at 27 years old is just entering his prime. He had 6 TDs in his last 4 regular season games, and then was VERY effective despite limited carries in his one playoff game.
Looking back a little bit, you notice that he's had 1200+ yards for two years in a row, and had 900 yards in his rookie year with only 7 starts. He was hurt in 2008, and his production suffered. But he was still out there and was still reasonably effective. Do you know how many backs had 1200+ rushing in both of the last two years? Three; ADP, Thomas Jones, and Ryan Grant.
Why exactly would Green Bay be going out of their way to replace this guy? Is RB REALLY their biggest need? I just don't get the general perception on Grant.
I'm not saying he's the best RB in the NFL or even top 3 or 4, but I do think he's at LEAST an average starting RB talent in a pretty good situation and I don't think his current fantasy value (particularly in dynasty) reflects that. A lot of folks are waiting for him to get replaced, and I'm not sure that's going to happen any time soon.