What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

**Current D's Which Must Be Held: The Anti-Stream** (1 Viewer)

C

Cheesedawg

Footballguy
This will change based on many factors over the course of a season, but as more people play streaming defenses the strategy of competing on the waiver wire is less appealing.

Which defenses are currently an indefinite hold because they are so turnover, sack, interception, and TD-leaning that it is worth sitting on them for the foreseeable future? Having an overwhelming or at least positive offense is a plus to put the D in favorable situations in the second half. I also strongly favor defenses playing at home so a nice timely home schedule is also a positive.

Going into week 5, I'd throw out Seattle and Cincy as top tier for sure for the foreseeable future. Detroit? Denver? Houston? KC? SF?

What D's do you have on a hold list if you can scoop them in one of your leagues? What can make you stop streaming?

 
I think you hit on the only two atm....Seattle and Cincy. Denver getting their cover LB Trevathan back will help so I'd probably put them at #3. The rest seem to be matchup plays. The good thing is there are always some good matchups so you're bound to end up a decent stream of defenses. Having one solid D though...especially those two whose byes are past already is a nice luxury.

 
Carolina would have been considered a stay-put D before the season, but its last two games have sucked. Thoughts on the Panthers?

 
I got the Seahawks added in as a sweetner to a trade, and will start them ROS. I was streaming - used SD last week and planned to roll with them over the next couple weeks - but with a short bench I've decided to opt for no DST lineup decisions this year. Seattle has underperformed from a FF perspective but they are still fundamentally sound. Our scoring is heavily tied to PA, and with a strong team I just feel like they won't hurt me over the course of the season. Most seasons the differential between the top third defenses in negligible, with the top performing DST from a FF points being largely attributable to a couple outlier games that included multiple DEF and/or ST TDs.

 
Just some notes on defenses this year:

  • Seattle only has 3 takeaways in 3 games. That puts them in a tie for 25th or 3rd to last.
  • The Rams have only 1 sack. AZ only has 3.
  • The NYG, HOU & SF lead in takeaways with 9 each. BUF, CHI, DAL, MIA & NE have 8.
  • NYJ lead in sacks w/ 14; Jax & KC have 12, BUF, MIA, WAS 11, DET & SD 10.
  • In 2013, SEA led with 5.8 YPA passing D. 2014 they are down to 6th at 6.5 YPAA, ahead of them are CIN 5.4, MIA 6.0, SF 6.1, NE 6.3 & DET 6.4. HOU is 7th at 6.6
  • CIN has allowed only 2 passing TDs in 3 games (1st); SEA has allowed 6 in 3 (T 12th).
  • CIN is 1st in opposing QB passer rating with 56.9. 2nd are the NYG at 73.4. The benchmark SEA is 23rd at 96.5.
  • BUF & KC have allowed no rushing TDs.
  • BUF, SEA, NYJ & AZ are the only teams to not allow a rush of over 20 yards.
  • NE's pass defense has lived up to its billing statistically, however their rush defense has been poor, and the offense has allowed too many opportunities.
  • The next 4 weeks, CLE gets: @TEN, PIT, @Jax, Oak, TB.
  • CLE has actually been a poor DST matchup this year, ranking 30th FFPA.
  • NE (10-0 last 2 years) & NO (18-0 last 2+ years under Payton) have the two best home records in the NFL and have a good stretch of home games coming up, but the matchups are terrible and their FF defenses have gone to hell. SEA who has almost as good a home record on the other hand has a stretch of road games coming up but with excellent matchups: @ WAS, DAL, @ STL, @ Car, Oak. SEA was probably an excellent buy low coming off the @SD and vs Den games before the bye, they are probably about to feast.
  • The NYG close weeks 13-16 @Jax, @TEN, WAS, @STL.
  • The Chargers appear to have an excellent schedule for a good part of the year and their D just looks plain good.
Having a single defense like 2013 Seattle is a huge luxury and those home games are a huge boon to any FF team. Besides SEA again, I think CIN is definitely a team to have this year.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I've been rolling with the Chargers and getting average to above average points, which is more than I hoped for. I'll hold them for as long as I can and see how the trend goes.

 
Square said:
I've been rolling with the Chargers and getting average to above average points, which is more than I hoped for. I'll hold them for as long as I can and see how the trend goes.
Click to expand...
Probably have 2 more weeks before KC game. Then I'm dropping them.

 
Kind of like the Texans.. they still get the titans twice, jags twice,

plus any team that has j.j. watt has potential for a monster week

 
purestrength said:
Carolina would have been considered a stay-put D before the season, but its last two games have sucked. Thoughts on the Panthers?
Click to expand...
I think they are droppable. I was able to exchange them for the Bengals coming off their bye.

 
Reegus said:
need2know said:
Still think ne is going to be a nice def most of the year. ..
Click to expand...
I agree...just need the offense to turn it around.
Click to expand...
Dalton, Orton, M.Vick, Cutler, Peyton, BYE, Luck, Stafford, Rodgers, Rivers ahead. It's time to bail sooner than later.
 
ebsteelers said:
Kind of like the Texans.. they still get the titans twice, jags twice,

plus any team that has j.j. watt has potential for a monster week
Click to expand...
Absolutely and I'm not sure why they aren't getting the respect they deserve.

They are currently the highest a oring defense in my league even though they have me negative pts against the Giants.

I've had then starting for me every week and 3 out of 4 weeks they've been money. And that's without clowney.

When clowney comes back in 2 weeks this defense is going to be ferocious.

 
rickyg said:
ebsteelers said:
Kind of like the Texans.. they still get the titans twice, jags twice,

plus any team that has j.j. watt has potential for a monster week
Click to expand...
Absolutely and I'm not sure why they aren't getting the respect they deserve.

They are currently the highest a oring defense in my league even though they have me negative pts against the Giants.

I've had then starting for me every week and 3 out of 4 weeks they've been money. And that's without clowney.

When clowney comes back in 2 weeks this defense is going to be ferocious.
Click to expand...
Thoughts on the Dallas matchup, leaving them plugged in?

 
purestrength said:
Carolina would have been considered a stay-put D before the season, but its last two games have sucked. Thoughts on the Panthers?
Click to expand...
They're not the same without Greg Hardy. I cut them for the Broncos this week.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
rickyg said:
ebsteelers said:
Kind of like the Texans.. they still get the titans twice, jags twice,

plus any team that has j.j. watt has potential for a monster week
Click to expand...
Absolutely and I'm not sure why they aren't getting the respect they deserve.They are currently the highest a oring defense in my league even though they have me negative pts against the Giants.

I've had then starting for me every week and 3 out of 4 weeks they've been money. And that's without clowney.

When clowney comes back in 2 weeks this defense is going to be ferocious.
Click to expand...
Thoughts on the Dallas matchup, leaving them plugged in?
Click to expand...
I'm not as confident with them playing Dallas but leaving them in BC all options on the wire are lesser defenses with only decent matchups. So I'm not expecting a top tier performance from Houston this week. But serviceable for sure.

I'll take my chances with jj watt over whatever else is on my wire. BEAST

 
KC is a pretty good defense, but the cherry on top is that they play Oakland at home in week 15 during a critical week in the fantasy playoffs.

 
Another thing to note about SEA is they've played three top tier offenses: DEN, SD, and GB.

Their schedule going forward is quite nice. Someone dropped them last week in my 12 team league to cover the bye. I scooped them up with a 3$ FAAB bid. Very pleased, considering my streaming was going very poorly...

 
None. :shrug:

Pats and Texans remain my favorite two because of what I perceive as their relatively high big play likelihood (which is a combo of players, coaches, and schedule). But I ALWAYS regard committees and streams as superior options to any given fantasy defense, unless there are scoring oddities that make specific defenses reliably outstanding plays in your league.

 
Pip said:
purestrength said:
Carolina would have been considered a stay-put D before the season, but its last two games have sucked. Thoughts on the Panthers?
Click to expand...
They're not the same without Greg Hardy. I cut them for the Broncos this week.
Click to expand...
That was my hope, too -- CAR could be a set it and forget it D for the year. Right now, seems more prudent to platoon them. Looking to do so myself with SF.

 
Hardly ever see a year where any of the "set it and forget it" teams outscore a good streamer. Obviously its less work to never worry about it and doesnt require any research, but if you know what you're doing streaming >> anti stream

Yet to score under 10 points in standard scoring this year

 
Holding Lions and Eagles. Lions are great at home and even on the road with the right matchup. Eagles are flat out fantastic so far, maybe apart from week 2 at Indy.

 
The Eagles have a current 19 game turnover streak. They have 79 fantasy points (FBGs std. scoring) and the 2nd best team is the Texans with 59.

 
Seattle's fantasy D sucks this year. They aren't in the top 20 for scoring in any of my 4 leagues. Screw that. Don't get points for last year.

 
Coming up on week 10, have the Pats D, only $2 FAAB left lol. I don't think I can drop them unless losing Mayo causes their defense to implode on itself - which I don't see happening.

 
Don't look now but jadeveon clowney is back this week for Houston. Bw him, watt, Cushing, and a string secondary, Houston is going to absolutely maul opposing qbs in the second half of the season.

 
So to come back to this, none are worth holding. As awesome as the Eagles and Lions have been, they will get torched at some point. Just stream the matchups and play the percentages.

 
Sabertooth said:
When did "streaming" become the word for DTBC? I don't know why but it's grating.
Click to expand...
What so grating about it to me is that for years no one used the term, now a website uses it and everyone follows suit. It just is weird how people follow the leader all the time.

 
Insein said:
So to come back to this, none are worth holding. As awesome as the Eagles and Lions have been, they will get torched at some point. Just stream the matchups and play the percentages.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

 
Yeah well the Bengals didn't exactly work out for me. I'm presuming most would be removing them from undroppable status. I dropped them for the Browns this week.

 
Still like the pats. Agree the eagles are overdue for a bad game and detroit will prob give up some major points starting this week

 
Insein said:
So to come back to this, none are worth holding. As awesome as the Eagles and Lions have been, they will get torched at some point. Just stream the matchups and play the percentages.
Click to expand...
Very few teams don't get torched. To that, give me a DEF team that has good special teams and gets turnovers. The Eagles do that....

 
Jerry Curl said:
NE_REVIVAL said:
Insein said:
So to come back to this, none are worth holding. As awesome as the Eagles and Lions have been, they will get torched at some point. Just stream the matchups and play the percentages.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
Click to expand...
:goodposting: :goodposting:
Click to expand...
I don't get it...How many people have dropped McCoy and Lacy? It would be silly to think your positional players will not have some bad weeks, so why is it OK to assume that it is unacceptable for a defense to have off weeks? DET is killing it right now, not sure why someone would not hold them over a flier like a Robert Woods for a week (for example).

 
Sweet Love said:
Jerry Curl said:
NE_REVIVAL said:
Insein said:
So to come back to this, none are worth holding. As awesome as the Eagles and Lions have been, they will get torched at some point. Just stream the matchups and play the percentages.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
Click to expand...
:goodposting: :goodposting:
Click to expand...
I don't get it...How many people have dropped McCoy and Lacy? It would be silly to think your positional players will not have some bad weeks, so why is it OK to assume that it is unacceptable for a defense to have off weeks? DET is killing it right now, not sure why someone would not hold them over a flier like a Robert Woods for a week (for example).
Click to expand...
I doubt very much anyone in their right minds would consider trading McCoy for the DET defense. Would you? If not, then it makes no sense to try to draw some sort of value equivalency between the two. Keeping versus dropping a "hot performer" has everything to do with the likelihood they'll continue to perform that way, weighed against the likelihood other available options will offer equal or greater value -- and to a lesser extent, I guess, the likelihood that you can extract superior value for them via trade.

A McCoy, should he start to perform as he's able, will possess a value that's utterly irreplaceable in free agency. That isn't true for the Detroit defense, as many successful streamers have detailed. Conversely, we know from relatively long-term history that McCoy is very likely to start (and then continue) performing that way as his line gets healthy -- since he's done so for a number of years now. DET's success, which has been largely dependent on the fluky nature of big plays and the presence of great matchups, is less likely to continue. History following the up and down nature of fantasy defenses tells us that just as surely.

I wouldn't exactly be EAGER to rid myself of Philly or Detroit, but they're pretty far from must-hold, IMO. I'd be trying enthusiastically to deal them, but failing that, if an absolutely beautiful defensive matchup or high-value positional FA became available, I'd probably shrug and go for it unless I thought it would hurt my team in the long run.

 
need2know said:
Still like the pats. Agree the eagles are overdue for a bad game and detroit will prob give up some major points starting this week
Click to expand...
Would normally never consider a DEF against the Saints but Lions at home, no Jimmy Graham, might not be the worst start this week unless there are some killer matchups for free agent DEF's out there I missed.

 
Starting the Texans every week and not thinking twice about it. Watt alone gets points and as rickyg pointed out before, this is before Clowney gets on the other side.

At this point I wouldn't trade them for Seattle or Cinci even. Still have Steelers, Jags, and 2 Titans games on the schedule

 
The difference between Team Defense by Committee and "Streaming" (at least in my mind) is that streaming is relevant in leagues where you don't have the roster space to carry two defenses. In other words, the thought process is, rather than drafting a top defense, just draft one with a decent Week 1 matchup (or maybe a decent first couple of weeks, on paper at least), and assume that you'll "stream" matchups from there. I'm in leagues where I can carry 3-4 if I want to. I'm in others where I feasibly can't carry more than 1 (or maybe 2, but only on certain weeks, depending on my byes at other positions).

Of course, the challenge with playing the wire is that team defenses aren't always that predictable (from year to year, as well as week to week), so it's easier said than done. Owners who drafted CAR or STL, and assumed that they would be every-week starts, are probably scrambling in search of better options. Even SEA is in the bottom third of most leagues, scoring-wise. I'd still start them most weeks, but they haven't exactly been automatic thus far.

 
TartanLion said:
Yeah well the Bengals didn't exactly work out for me. I'm presuming most would be removing them from undroppable status. I dropped them for the Browns this week.
Click to expand...
I had to drop the Bengals as well after they put up -1 pts against New England, followed by 0 pts against Carolina. They can't stop anybody lately, giving up 37+ points in each of the last 2 games. Elite defenses don't do that. Picked up Denver in their stead.

 
Very interested in this as I hate the crapshoot that is streaming D's. Well, I didn't mind it before but it's much tougher now that almost everyone does this.

In my leagues if you're not high on the waiver order you're probably not getting that sexy 1-week defense that's playing the Jags or Oakland.

Have the Broncos and would love to keep them, but they have a tough schedule coming up. Started out the season with the Texans, and the comments in here are making me wonder whether I should try to ride them for the rest of the season.

As far as the OP, the Lions and incredibly the Eagles seem to be legit at the moment.

 
Not sure why anyone would keep Cincy as an every week plug in. They've only had 2 good outings out of 5 and in the other 3 they gave up 423, 505 and 431 yds.In the Phenoms leagues they've actually scored minus 7 pts over the last 2 games. They are a streaming option at best with only a handful of decent match-ups remaining. Of course it depends on your scoring but looking at my various leagues they are bottom third and the Seahawks aren't much better, if any. I've been going by committee or streaming but if I was forced to choose a DEF to plug in every week I can think of around 5 others I would choose over CIN/SEA.

EDIT: as for which DEF's I would have a hard time dropping right now, New England, Detroit, Denver and Philly.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

creepythinman
True League Winners - Upgrading the Playoff Roster
Replies
25
Views
2K
creepythinman
creepythinman
Ministry of Pain
The Toughest Pass Defenses from last year, which ones will be difficult to face again?
Replies
1
Views
652
Insein
Insein
LawFitz
Which is the Best Site for Public Dynasty Leagues?
Replies
5
Views
1K
LawFitz
LawFitz

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top