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The upward trend in QB performance (1 Viewer)

-jb-

-jb-

Footballguy
There has been lots of discussion on what to expect from the QB position in 2012. Full disclosure - I'm not here to tell you, rather just put some thoughts, questions, and numbers in a single spot.

Questions:

- Will we continue to see a rise in production, or was last year an anomaly?

- If it was an anomaly, how significant of a downturn should we expect?

- Insert yours.

I'll start with some preliminary numbers I've crunched...

Looking at historical data, based on FBG standard scoring, these are some high-level observations:

- From 1990, we've seen the median of top 12 QB stats climb from a low of 263 (1991) to a high of 389 (2011).

- We have seen a downturn in performance from one year to the next 8 out of 21 times (1991, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2010).

- Of those 8 years, 2 marked the follow-up of historical seasons - Manning (2004) Brady (2007).

- Both of those years were the most significant spike over the previous year (2004 +57 pts, 2007 +71 pts).

- Both of those years were followed with the most significant drop-off (2005 -64.5 pts, 2008 -57.5 pts).

- Outside of those years, 2011 is the largest spike in production (54 pts).

- Utilizing a blend of Dodds, Henry, and Woods' projections, we are only predicting a downturn of 7 points.

So, with a cursory look, while pundits are anticipating a downturn, it does not appear to be as significant as we have seen following a landmark year.

How else can we look at this? What other nuggets can be extracted?

DATA

Year QB1 QB12 Median1990 422 224 3231991 334 192 2631992 362 212 2871993 367 219 2931994 425 228 326.51995 421 243 3321996 390 206 2981997 361 243 3021998 446 246 3461999 412 235 323.52000 419 251 3352001 384 261 322.52002 378 271 324.52003 343 274 308.52004 461 270 365.52005 338 264 3012006 384 241 312.52007 496 271 383.52008 389 263 3262009 418 294 3562010 376 294 3352011 490 288 389
edit to remove inaccurate data.

 
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Overall I'd expect a downturn and don't think any QB breaks 5K yards. My reasons are believing this are 1) gut and 2) I believe the shortened training camps had more impact (negative) on the defenses than the offenses. I think in general teams put in their base Defense and then work on blitz packages and it took a bit into the season before teams had their full arsenal.

I'm not sure how much the data actually tells us other than the disparity between the QB1 and QB12 is slightly decreasing. Although, it seems like we're seeing much more monster years out of QB's.

Actually what I find interesting if you look at it on a PPG basis (that is the difference between QB1 and QB12) from 1990-2000 (the first 11 of 22 years of data here) only 2 out of the 11 years was the disparity less than 9 (with a low of 7.4). (Meaning the QB1 was on average worth 9pts more per game than the QB12). From 2001-2011, only 3 of the 11 years did the disparity break 9. And for 3 of those 11 years the disparity was 5.13 or less. THis data seems to show that while more people seem to be spending early picks on QB's, the results indicate that you're probably better off waiting.

 
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'Modog814 said:
Overall I'd expect a downturn and don't think any QB breaks 5K yards. My reasons are believing this are 1) gut and 2) I believe the shortened training camps had more impact (negative) on the defenses than the offenses. I think in general teams put in their base Defense and then work on blitz packages and it took a bit into the season before teams had their full arsenal.

I'm not sure how much the data actually tells us other than the disparity between the QB1 and QB12 is slightly decreasing. Although, it seems like we're seeing much more monster years out of QB's.

Actually what I find interesting if you look at it on a PPG basis (that is the difference between QB1 and QB12) from 1990-2000 (the first 11 of 22 years of data here) only 2 out of the 11 years was the disparity less than 9 (with a low of 7.4). (Meaning the QB1 was on average worth 9pts more per game than the QB12). From 2001-2011, only 3 of the 11 years did the disparity break 9. And for 3 of those 11 years the disparity was 5.13 or less. THis data seems to show that while more people seem to be spending early picks on QB's, the results indicate that you're probably better off waiting.
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Good stuff here. Pretty funny, considering every analyst said the opposite before 2011 kick-off.
 
'Modog814 said:
Overall I'd expect a downturn and don't think any QB breaks 5K yards. My reasons are believing this are 1) gut and 2) I believe the shortened training camps had more impact (negative) on the defenses than the offenses. I think in general teams put in their base Defense and then work on blitz packages and it took a bit into the season before teams had their full arsenal.

I'm not sure how much the data actually tells us other than the disparity between the QB1 and QB12 is slightly decreasing. Although, it seems like we're seeing much more monster years out of QB's.

Actually what I find interesting if you look at it on a PPG basis (that is the difference between QB1 and QB12) from 1990-2000 (the first 11 of 22 years of data here) only 2 out of the 11 years was the disparity less than 9 (with a low of 7.4). (Meaning the QB1 was on average worth 9pts more per game than the QB12). From 2001-2011, only 3 of the 11 years did the disparity break 9. And for 3 of those 11 years the disparity was 5.13 or less. THis data seems to show that while more people seem to be spending early picks on QB's, the results indicate that you're probably better off waiting.
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:goodposting: quality information in your post! thanks.

I agree... last year's records were a result of limited training camp.I think things swing back the other way now, more emphasis on the running game, ball control, clock control, winning time of possession and keeping the other team's offense on the sidelines, and as a result, QB production should be way down across the board..

just a hunch,but this might be the year of the RB - at a time when everyone thinks of drafting WR/TE/QB early, it *might* be the best time to snag RB's instead..

 
-jb-, I appreciate your time into putting together this info.

1. I think that the numbers for QB1 will come down and QB12 staying about the same if not going up a little based on some of the mid to lower tier QB getting better.

2. RB seems to make "draft against the grain method" this year after the shortened season.

3. Yes, You can wait on QB and draft heavier on RB/WR. Unless, you play in a 2QB system.

Good luck to everyone this season!

 
'Tanner9919 said:
'Modog814 said:
Overall I'd expect a downturn and don't think any QB breaks 5K yards. My reasons are believing this are 1) gut and 2) I believe the shortened training camps had more impact (negative) on the defenses than the offenses. I think in general teams put in their base Defense and then work on blitz packages and it took a bit into the season before teams had their full arsenal.

I'm not sure how much the data actually tells us other than the disparity between the QB1 and QB12 is slightly decreasing. Although, it seems like we're seeing much more monster years out of QB's.

Actually what I find interesting if you look at it on a PPG basis (that is the difference between QB1 and QB12) from 1990-2000 (the first 11 of 22 years of data here) only 2 out of the 11 years was the disparity less than 9 (with a low of 7.4). (Meaning the QB1 was on average worth 9pts more per game than the QB12). From 2001-2011, only 3 of the 11 years did the disparity break 9. And for 3 of those 11 years the disparity was 5.13 or less. THis data seems to show that while more people seem to be spending early picks on QB's, the results indicate that you're probably better off waiting.
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:goodposting: quality information in your post! thanks.

I agree... last year's records were a result of limited training camp.I think things swing back the other way now, more emphasis on the running game, ball control, clock control, winning time of possession and keeping the other team's offense on the sidelines, and as a result, QB production should be way down across the board..

just a hunch,but this might be the year of the RB - at a time when everyone thinks of drafting WR/TE/QB early, it *might* be the best time to snag RB's instead..
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I agree, especially in FF, I think one of the biggest keys is not looking back and instead look ahead. One of the things I'm starting to think is if you look into the middle rounds and see a bunch of guys (at a certain position) that it seems like they're on everyone's "sleeper" or "value" list, then you're probably better off going the opposite direction. This year it seems like I'm seeing a lot of mid-round RB's on people's lists, that definitely has me thinking of going back to the old Stud RB theory

 
Every single investment I make, has the following tacked on to it:

"Performance data shown represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results."

 
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'Modog814 said:
just a hunch,but this might be the year of the RB - at a time when everyone thinks of drafting WR/TE/QB early, it *might* be the best time to snag RB's instead..
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It's going to be difficult to have another "Year of the RB" until teams stop trending toward "Sharing the load" and go back to the "Bellcow Back" approach. 275 Carry Running Backs (By Year)

2011: 6

2010: 10

2009: 8

2008: 8

2007: 10

2006: 11

2005: 12

2004: 11

2003: 16

Not a good trend for a "year of the running back". Not to say it can't happen, but the game is shifting away from that. Now, that's not to say that it doesn't make getting one of those bellcows even MORE important (positional scarcity and all that)... but that's for another thread.

 
'-jb- said:
'Modog814 said:
Overall I'd expect a downturn and don't think any QB breaks 5K yards. My reasons are believing this are 1) gut and 2) I believe the shortened training camps had more impact (negative) on the defenses than the offenses. I think in general teams put in their base Defense and then work on blitz packages and it took a bit into the season before teams had their full arsenal.
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Good stuff here. Pretty funny, considering every analyst said the opposite before 2011 kick-off.
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Do not agree. You can't just take one item that happened pre-season and one item that happened during the season and say one was the cause of another - what kind of analysis is that?

I believe the increase in the passing yardage married a select few phenomenally skilled passing QB/teams with a particular year of less than adept passing defenses, and having the personnel to execute the correct scheme. Look at what happened to Green Bay when they played teams that had the personnel to rush 4 and drop the rest in coverage. The Packers passed for 264 yards against the Giants in the playoffs, and lost to the Chiefs.

I don't believe at all that the pre-season crap affected how these athletes performed on the field. Training camp is no more than 2 weeks long before the first pre-season game. Very little time in pads was lost due to the collective bargaining, and that's the time that counts.

The athletes were ready last year, but there weren't enough gifted defensive athletes on the teams that played the best passing teams to counter the amount of passing that happened.

 
'meyerj31 said:
'-jb- said:
'Modog814 said:
Overall I'd expect a downturn and don't think any QB breaks 5K yards. My reasons are believing this are 1) gut and 2) I believe the shortened training camps had more impact (negative) on the defenses than the offenses. I think in general teams put in their base Defense and then work on blitz packages and it took a bit into the season before teams had their full arsenal.
Click to expand...
Good stuff here. Pretty funny, considering every analyst said the opposite before 2011 kick-off.
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Do not agree. You can't just take one item that happened pre-season and one item that happened during the season and say one was the cause of another - what kind of analysis is that?

I believe the increase in the passing yardage married a select few phenomenally skilled passing QB/teams with a particular year of less than adept passing defenses, and having the personnel to execute the correct scheme. Look at what happened to Green Bay when they played teams that had the personnel to rush 4 and drop the rest in coverage. The Packers passed for 264 yards against the Giants in the playoffs, and lost to the Chiefs.

I don't believe at all that the pre-season crap affected how these athletes performed on the field. Training camp is no more than 2 weeks long before the first pre-season game. Very little time in pads was lost due to the collective bargaining, and that's the time that counts.

The athletes were ready last year, but there weren't enough gifted defensive athletes on the teams that played the best passing teams to counter the amount of passing that happened.
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It's very possible that it had no impact at all, but I recall reading somewhere that several coaches mentioned the lack of Training Camp as having an impact on thier Blitz schemes and attributing the huge passing numbers to that. And no where did I say that all of the increased passing output was attributable to that. The NFL has become a passing league and anyone saying otherwise is turning a blind eye to whats happening.

But your thinking may apply to Green Bay, does it apply to Detroit, New ENgland, New Orleanse and the Giants?

Prior to last year we only saw 2 QB's ever break 5K yards. This year we had 3 do it. Prior to last year we only saw 5 guys ever break 4800 yards. Last year 4 did it (and by the way, Rodgers wasn't one of them). It wasn't just one guy who had the schedule fall right for him, the fact that 4 guys did it makes me think that something bigger was at play than simply a schedule phenomenon where the highly skilled passing offenses teed off on the poor passing defenses.

And 2 weeks not in pads might not sound meaning full, but it wasn't just two weeks. It was the OTA's as well. Defense is so much based on scheme and about each player being where he's supposed to be when he's supposed to be there. That takes time to learn (especially when you consider player and coaching turnover each year) and it's learned not necessarily learned with pads on. And these QB's are so good that they only need one player to be out of position by one step to make a big play.

In the end, the reasoning doesn't really seem to matter, as if I'm reading your post correctly, you agree that passing this year will drop.

 
I believe there will be up to a half-dozen 5,000 yard passers this year. It's a multi-year trend. I looked up some stuff from TMQ, because his basic thing was saying that the early season passing offense was an abberation and defenses would adjust - they did somewhat. But I think the passing NFL with 5,000 yarders is here to stay.

THUNK! That is the sound of NFL quarterbacks tumbling back to earth.

After tossing for 517 and then 423 yards in his first two outings, Tom Brady has thrown for 289 yards and 198 yards in his most recent two. Cam Newton threw for 422 and 432 yards in his first two, 256 and 290 yards in his most recent two. Tony Romo threw for 342 and 345 yards in his first two, 166 and 203 yards in his most recent two.

Two weeks into the regular season, five quarterbacks were on a pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yards mark. Today three are: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Brady. Don't hold your breath.

What's the larger picture? The ESPN research department reports that in Week 1, NFL games averaged a blistering 490 net passing yards and 47 points; in Week 2, 497 net passing yards and 47 points. (That's both teams combined in each game.) These numbers triggered the runaway offense panic. Both metrics have declined back toward normalcy. By Week 7, the average was 383 net passing yards and 42 points. This week, the averages were 436 net passing yards and 42 points.

How do the current averages compare with the recent past? Regular-season games in 2010 showed an average of 413 net passing yards and 44 points. In 2009, regular-season games averaged out at 409 net passing yards and 43 points. That's about the same as the last two weeks. As quarterbacks tumble back to earth, stats return to normalcy.

Of course, no one could have known this would happen. Hey wait -- after the second week of the season, your columnist led with a prediction that the situation was transitory: "As the season progresses, pass coverages should get better and passing yards decline. If it's still like this in November, then perhaps rule changes can be blamed. But TMQ is betting it won't still be like this in November."

Yea, verily, it's November, and passing norms are returning. My Week 2 column suggested that blown coverages caused by the lack of an offseason -- secondaries take time to jell -- were the primary reason for the initial high passing stats, and that coverages would improve by November. This seems to be happening. My Week 2 column further forecast that "none of the quarterbacks now on a pace to break Marino's record will in fact break it." I am sticking to that call, too.
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This is the new reality:

You will be assimilated by the offense. Resistance is futile.

It's the year of offensive stat-a-rama throughout the NFL. There have been five 5,000-yard passing seasons in NFL history; three of them were this year. Drew Brees and Tom Brady both eclipsed the previous passing yards record in the same season. Records were set for passer rating, completion percentage and team yards from scrimmage. In the regular season, NFL teams averaged 235 gross passing yards per game, surpassing the previous high of 221 in 1995 and way above the 1971 average of 156 yards. Three of the top five rushing teams missed the playoffs while all the top five passing teams made the postseason. Detroit just gained a spectacular 882 yards passing in two games over six days -- and lost both because opponents gained 928 yards passing. The Packers and Patriots, with the league's lowest-rated defenses, just used scoreboard-spinning to win the conference top seeds. The league's No. 1 defense, the Pittsburgh Steelers, is already out of the playoffs, torched by Denver. In this year of offensive stat-a-rama, even a sputtering offense trumped the best defense!

Much of the same is happening in college football. In the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin gained 508 yards on offense, which a generation ago would have meant a walkover triumph. Wisconsin lost because Oregon gained 621 yards. The University of Houston averaged 599 yards of offense per outing. The University of Toledo played in back-to-back games in which both teams exceeded 60 points. Perhaps the Alamo Bowl represents the future of the sport. Washington gained 620 yards on offense, scored 56 points and lost, because Baylor gained 777 yards and scored 67 points.

What is going on? I journeyed alone to a distant mountaintop -- OK, a distant parking lot -- to ask the football gods. Their answer: The children of the shotgun spread have come home.

Dutch Meyer used four wide receivers in the 1940s, the trips formation has been seen for three decades, 20 years ago the no-tight-end "run and shoot" was an NFL meme, while the empty backfield has been around since Doug Flutie. These and other gonzo offensive tactics are not new developments. What is new is the near-ubiquitous proliferation of the shotgun spread and its cousin, the seven-on-seven league.

About a decade ago, multiple wide receivers with the quarterback in a shotgun began to catch on in high school and college. Using this look, in 2001, Clemson quarterback Woody Dantzler became the first player in NCAA annals to pass for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season. Shotgun spread offenses sprung up like dandelions, soon joined by the zone-read variation.

Around the same time, the seven-on-seven concept began to flourish. High school coaches looking for a way to evade contact-days restrictions, and make football a year-round sport, formed "passing leagues" -- essentially football without pads or linemen -- and began to play seven-on-seven all winter and spring. Seven-on-seven tournaments, unknown a generation ago, became common.

The children of the shotgun spread are advancing to the next levels. Players who spent their teen years in passing leagues -- and in seven-on-seven, everybody wants to play offense, nobody wants to be on defense -- have headed to college. A generation ago, college coaches put their best athletes on defense and tried to shut people down. In recent years, with a few exceptions such as LSU's cornerbacks, colleges have put their best athletes on offense. The boosters like shootouts. Players like to perform in shootouts, which lead to YouTube interest. "Basketball on grass" is the order of the day in college football.

And now the children of the shotgun and seven-on-seven are graduating to the pros. About five seasons ago, Indianapolis and New England went shotgun spread and rang up victory after victory. Now players arriving in the NFL don't consider the shotgun an innovation, they consider it standard tactics. Players who were raised on high school seven-on-seven have spent far more hours practicing passing than any other aspect of the game. It's what they are good at. This year Cam Newton and Tim Tebow brought the zone-read variation to the NFL. Most young offensive players are already familiar with it.

At the same time, defense has moved from discipline to personal flash as its highest attainment. Ours is a visual society, and Clay Matthews -- flowing long hair, showing his biceps in wild celebrations after a sack -- is at the moment the epitome of the defensive visual. Jack Lambert would get the tackle, Bruce Smith would get the sack, then they'd just walk back to the defensive huddle. How old-fashioned! What about your sack dance!

Today's defensive players are bored by topics like tackling fundamentals or stripping blockers so a teammate can make the play: They want to generate flashy "SportsCenter" visuals like Matthews does. If that means boatloads of offensive yards surrendered for every one flashy sack, so be it. The defender who misses what should have been a routine wrap-up tackle, because he's hurled himself into space hoping to become a highlight, is as much an image of this football season as the big passing day.

Sports fads go in cycles, and Alabama-LSU, a title matchup of low-scoring power-football philosophies, may signal that the pendulum has begun to swing back. But for the moment, the children of the shotgun spread are what's happening in football. Resistance is futile, as, apparently, is playing defense.
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http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7443700/children-spread-offense-taken-hold-football-know-it
 
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I don't know how often this has happened, but last year, the top 3 elite QBs were on teams that had really below average defenses. Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans had truly horrible defenses forcing their elite QBs to throw even more.

I don't know how improved GB is on defense, but New Orleans is going to be even worse and New England didn't seem to do a whole lot to address their problems either.

I expect more gaudy passing numbers.

 
'butcher boy said:
I don't know how often this has happened, but last year, the top 3 elite QBs were on teams that had really below average defenses. Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans had truly horrible defenses forcing their elite QBs to throw even more.I don't know how improved GB is on defense, but New Orleans is going to be even worse and New England didn't seem to do a whole lot to address their problems either. I expect more gaudy passing numbers.
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New England drafted two really good Defensive players in the first round??
 
'butcher boy said:
I don't know how often this has happened, but last year, the top 3 elite QBs were on teams that had really below average defenses. Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans had truly horrible defenses forcing their elite QBs to throw even more.
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To some extent it becomes a "chicken-egg" scenario though. While I'm not saying any of those teams had great passing defenses anyway, but keep in mind that the opposing teams likely often had to abandon the run and pass like crazy against those teams in order to keep up with what Rodgers, Brady and Brees was doing to their defenses.
 
'karmarooster said:
This is the new reality:http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7443700/children-spread-offense-taken-hold-football-know-it
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I don't think there is any question that we are seeing a long-term trend upward in QB statistics. What I do question, however, is the very modest correction that most are projecting for 2012.Here's another way to look at the numbers: - If we assume a steady path from 1990 to 2011, we see an increase of 9/10 of 1% (.009) per year.- In 2011, we saw an increase of 16% over 2010, or ~16x.- For 2012, the pundits are anticipating a downturn of 2% after what appears to be a significant outlier.- The least significant correction we have seen since 1990 was from 2000 to 2001, at 3.73% - almost double the correction the pundits are anticipating this year, and that was after a modest increase of 3.4%.This all seems unreasonable to me, especially considering the past precedent of landmark years. There is far too much volatility to assume that there will be a FULL correction, but given the correction we saw in Manning and Brady's landmark years (17.5% and 15% respectively), we need to be more considerate. Even if we took a SWAG and said we would see a downturn of 10%, we would see the relative value of QBs move drastically.I'm going to keep working on this, since there is such a focus on QB this year. I'm not sure where I will wind up, but it's pretty obvious the big 3-4 will not be on my team. When you match this up with the deepness of WR and the lack of bellcow backs, going old school like someone suggested with RB/RB seems like a fine strategy.I could easily see a RB/RB/WR/WR/QB draft.
 
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Probably need Jason or someone better with the use of statistics to determine if using an average vs. median makes more or less sense for these numbers. Median was just easier...

 
'-jb- said:
'karmarooster said:
This is the new reality:http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7443700/children-spread-offense-taken-hold-football-know-it
Click to expand...
I don't think there is any question that we are seeing a long-term trend upward in QB statistics. What I do question, however, is the very modest correction that most are projecting for 2012.Here's another way to look at the numbers: - If we assume a steady path from 1990 to 2011, we see an increase of 9/10 of 1% (.009) per year.- In 2011, we saw an increase of 16% over 2010, or ~16x.- For 2012, the pundits are anticipating a downturn of 2% after what appears to be a significant outlier.- The least significant correction we have seen since 1990 was from 2000 to 2001, at 3.73% - almost double the correction the pundits are anticipating this year, and that was after a modest increase of 3.4%.This all seems unreasonable to me, especially considering the past precedent of landmark years. There is far too much volatility to assume that there will be a FULL correction, but given the correction we saw in Manning and Brady's landmark years (17.5% and 15% respectively), we need to be more considerate. Even if we took a SWAG and said we would see a downturn of 10%, we would see the relative value of QBs move drastically.I'm going to keep working on this, since there is such a focus on QB this year. I'm not sure where I will wind up, but it's pretty obvious the big 3-4 will not be on my team. When you match this up with the deepness of WR and the lack of bellcow backs, going old school like someone suggested with RB/RB seems like a fine strategy.I could easily see a RB/RB/WR/WR/QB draft.
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Is there any reason you or the pundits are expected a downturn, other than simple regression to the mean?If you have a true outlier season, in which nothing significant changes-i.e., rules, style of play, offensive philosphy, etc.--BUT there is an abnormal spike in passing output, there would be strong reason to think that the following year would be a correction. I don't think that's the case now - the rules against DBs have been getting more and more pro-offense, as have the pro-QB rules. This goes hand in hand with the decrease in running backs. For this reason, I don't think we're looking at a single outlier year followed by a correction. There might be a slight decrease due to variance, but in general the passing trend is UP, which I guess is why most pundits predict a minor 2% decrease as you said.In addition, it sounds like the Manning and Brady TD record years were two instances of exceptional circumstances for those two QBs. Two QBs, in their primes, who had great weapons, etc. - a perfect storm - in which their individuals records buoyed the overall numbers. Those two QBs go down the next year, and thus the overall median/average whatever decreases in well. Keep in mind that during that time period, 4,000 yards and 30 TDs would be a GREAT year for a QB; that would now be only above average. Last year, while what Brees did was similar to what Brady did n 2007 or Manning did in 2004, was somewhat different than those years as well. Whereas in 07/04 there were two exceptional QBs who went bonkers over everyone else, last year we saw a signiciant number of QBs push the 5,000 yard mark (or the equivilent in fantasy points for running QBs/Cam and Vick). The fact that Brady AND Brees both broke the record, and Rodgers would've have as well if you gave him Flynn's stats from Week 17, points to the fact that this is a larger, systemic issue rather than a year in which one QB goes nuts and inflates the year end totals. Those with a strong likelihood of pushing 5,000 yards (or the equivilent in points):-Rodgers - 4,800 + 500 that went to Matt Flynn, nothing has changed on offense with the talent surrounding him, and they haven't acquired a real RB which indicates they have no interest in running a balanced offense-Brady - he may actually increase his numbers from last year, given that they added WR talent and subtracted RB talent-Brees - defensive issues may lead to great output, although I expect a decline in efficiency thus fewer TDs and more INTs a la two years ago-Stafford - aside from Calvin, Titus looks like he's ready to break out as does Pettigrew, who was 1 year removed from major injury last year-Cam - of course not going to break 5,000 but may break 4,000 and add several hundred rushing-Vick - his PPG numbers last year were not as bad as his overall, and his passing YPG was actually consistent, its only that his rushing output decreased-Eli - already threw for 4,900, and I like the addition of Bennett, plus they may shift to passing even more without JacobsThen there are a slew of QBs who would not surprise me if they made a breakthrough - led by Matt Ryan. I DON'T expect Manning to push much higher than 4,000 due to John Fox, nor do I think Philip Rivers has the talent around him to get much above that figure. However Jay Cutler could return to his 4,000+ numbers. OH and I forgot Romo... but with the talent around him he should surpass 4,000 and could push higher provided Dallas doesn't emphasize the ground game with Murray. In sum that's a number of QBs who will test 5,000, and one or two that may challenge last year's records.ETA - from ESPN:
NFL Play Breakdown, Past 4 Seasons Year Passes Rushes Pass % Avg. Y@C 2011 17,410 13,971 55.5% 6.4 2010 17,269 13,920 55.4% 6.2 2009 17,033 14,088 54.7% 6.1 2008 16,525 14,119 53.9% 6.0
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'-jb- said:
'karmarooster said:
This is the new reality:http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7443700/children-spread-offense-taken-hold-football-know-it
Click to expand...
I don't think there is any question that we are seeing a long-term trend upward in QB statistics. What I do question, however, is the very modest correction that most are projecting for 2012.Here's another way to look at the numbers: - If we assume a steady path from 1990 to 2011, we see an increase of 9/10 of 1% (.009) per year.- In 2011, we saw an increase of 16% over 2010, or ~16x.- For 2012, the pundits are anticipating a downturn of 2% after what appears to be a significant outlier.- The least significant correction we have seen since 1990 was from 2000 to 2001, at 3.73% - almost double the correction the pundits are anticipating this year, and that was after a modest increase of 3.4%.This all seems unreasonable to me, especially considering the past precedent of landmark years. There is far too much volatility to assume that there will be a FULL correction, but given the correction we saw in Manning and Brady's landmark years (17.5% and 15% respectively), we need to be more considerate. Even if we took a SWAG and said we would see a downturn of 10%, we would see the relative value of QBs move drastically.I'm going to keep working on this, since there is such a focus on QB this year. I'm not sure where I will wind up, but it's pretty obvious the big 3-4 will not be on my team. When you match this up with the deepness of WR and the lack of bellcow backs, going old school like someone suggested with RB/RB seems like a fine strategy.I could easily see a RB/RB/WR/WR/QB draft.
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The issue I see with this line of thinking (that there is some sort of gravitational pull toward the median) is that, in fact there really isn't. If you have a league with 2 Elite QBs and 3-4 Great ones... then 2 of those Greats become Elite, and two more Great QB's emerge, then there is a legitimate reason to believe that the dynamics of the league have shifted and the baseline has been legitimately moved north. The same goes with rule shifts. With the huge amount of pressure being placed on defenses to avoid dangerous hits, the stud WR's are getting more comfortable in their routes, leading to more big plays. Again, rule shifts can cause a legitimate shift in the baseline. I don't have the ability nor the time to do a full breakdown of the statistics but simply assuming a moving average is the law of the land without considering emergence of additional top talent, or shifts in the game's fundamentals are IMO leaving a lot off the table when doing this sort of analysis. Not trying to take anything away from your post... just throwing out my .02 on this. I just hate it when people get lazy with projections and simply take a moving average and tweak it a hair. (not saying that's what you did here... just sayin...)
 
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Not sure if anyone mentioned this........

More ticky tack P.I. calls. The more passing, the more of these calls you see.

Keeps drives alive, allows QB's to score more points.

 
Good stuff guys, and it's why I started the thread. From the last three posts:

ROOSTER

Is there any reason you or the pundits are expected a downturn, other than simple regression to the mean?

I don't necessarily believe it to be regression to the mean, but perhaps we're just slightly off on semantics. Last year was a historic year, based on the year-over-year increase in points, and the more psychological milestone of breaking the 5000 yard mark. If we go back and look at the other landmark years, they have the same characteristic of having a pretty large drop off. This is definitely regression, but not necessarily to the mean. Again, might just be semantics.

The rules against DBs have been getting more and more pro-offense, as have the pro-QB rules. This goes hand in hand with the decrease in running backs. For this reason, I don't think we're looking at a single outlier year followed by a correction.

I both agree and disagree here. The rules have been changing for quite a while now, not just last year. I suppose what's up for debate is how significant the recent changes have been...and you could be right. Definitely something to consider.



In 07/04 there were two exceptional QBs who went bonkers over everyone else, last year we saw a signiciant number of QBs push the 5,000 yard mark. The fact that Brady AND Brees both broke the record, and Rodgers would've have as well if you gave him Flynn's stats from Week 17, points to the fact that this is a larger, systemic issue rather than a year in which one QB goes nuts and inflates the year end totals.

This is a very good point, and probably points me to running these numbers as averages rather than medians. It might give us a better understanding.

Passing Stats

Looking at these passing percentage stats, I see a similarity to the ~1% growth mentioned earlier. 2008, 2009, and 2010 saw an increase of less than 1% per year, and there was virtually no increase in 2011...if this is all perceived to be a systemic issue, then why have these numbers crept along at the same relative pace?

ICON

The issue I see with this line of thinking that that there is some sort of gravitational pull toward the median, when in fact there really isn't.

I think as long as you recognize the slow pattern of growth over the long haul, I absolutely believe there is a gravitational pull. If you look at the original numbers there has only been a multi-year increase in points three times in 22 years. Every other up year has been followed by a down one. When you pair that with the fact that every SIGNIFICANT uptick was followed by a significant downturn, I think there is enough evidence to bet that we'll see another one in 2012. Of course, it's impossible to say with certainty...but it's a decent bet.

If you have a league with 2 Elite QBs and 3-4 Great ones... then 2 of those Greats become Elite, and two more Great QB's emerge, then there is a legitimate reason to believe that the dynamics of the league have shifted and the baseline has been legitimately moved north.

I'm not sure what you mean here. Are you saying that in 2007 we had Manning/Brady as the only elite, and now we have Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Stafford? If so, I think we need to circle back on previous years with these guys. Outside of Brees, their passing numbers have been erratic. Rodgers didn't break 4000 in 2010 and barely did so in 2009. Brady didn't break 4000 in 2010 either. Stafford has had exactly one strong year given injury issues, so who knows if we have a big enough sample size? At this point, it is an interesting observation, but I don't know that I have a big enough sample size to go from.

The same goes with rule shifts. With the huge amount of pressure being placed on defenses to avoid dangerous hits, the stud WR's are getting more comfortable in their routes, leading to more big plays. Again, rule shifts can cause a legitimate shift in the baseline.

Yep, I do think this is worth looking into. See above.

Manster

More ticky tack P.I. calls. The more passing, the more of these calls you see.

I suppose, but these also take up large swaths of yardage. What impact does that have?

Again, good stuff guys. Thx

 
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'-jb- said:
Good stuff guys, and it's why I started the thread. From the last three posts:

ROOSTER

Passing Stats

Looking at these passing percentage stats, I see a similarity to the ~1% growth mentioned earlier. 2008, 2009, and 2010 saw an increase of less than 1% per year, and there was virtually no increase in 2011...if this is all perceived to be a systemic issue, then why have these numbers crept along at the same relative pace?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure what you're saying here? There was virtually no increase last year? It looks to me like the the league is continually shifting away from the run to the pass, albeit incrementally over the last several seasons, AND that the output/production PER pass is increasing at the same time. You could easily assume that a shift from running to passing would result in more passes, but for less output each time, due to defensive adjustments. That sounds like a classic west-coast offense of short routes, utilizing the TEs and RBs, and using short passes as an extended handoff. Instead, if run/pass balance shifts to pass AND output increases for every pass attempted or completed, that is evidence of a systemic shift - more passing for more yardage each time. And IMO, this has been caused by the rule changes. I mentioned earlier encouraged by the rule changes.

It's true that rules have been changing for years. This began a few years back with greater scrutiny given to pass interference and holding. It continued after Brady's knee injury with several rules designed to protect QBs - they cannot be touched above the neck or below the waist. And finally, in light of the concussion crisis, DBs are now tip-toeing around trying to make a tackle but not get fined or suspended. The other change is probably more minor but relates to the positioning of the referee in the backfield as opposed to in the middle of the defense, thus (supposedly) unable to spot offensive holding as well. These things add up - initially, the rule changes resulted in incremental increases in passing output, but as the rules combined last year - such that WRs can't be touched on their routes, QBs can't be touched even when the D-linemen can get to him, and WRs can't be viciously hit after the catch - it seems like a spike in production makes sense, with no obvious indication that the trend will reverse, although it certainly could plateau.

 
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'karmarooster said:
'-jb- said:
Good stuff guys, and it's why I started the thread. From the last three posts:

ROOSTER

Passing Stats

Looking at these passing percentage stats, I see a similarity to the ~1% growth mentioned earlier. 2008, 2009, and 2010 saw an increase of less than 1% per year, and there was virtually no increase in 2011...if this is all perceived to be a systemic issue, then why have these numbers crept along at the same relative pace?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure what you're saying here? There was virtually no increase last year? It looks to me like the the league is continually shifting away from the run to the pass, albeit incrementally over the last several seasons, AND that the output/production PER pass is increasing at the same time. You could easily assume that a shift from running to passing would result in more passes, but for less output each time, due to defensive adjustments. That sounds like a classic west-coast offense of short routes, utilizing the TEs and RBs, and using short passes as an extended handoff. Instead, if run/pass balance shifts to pass AND output increases for every pass attempted or completed, that is evidence of a systemic shift - more passing for more yardage each time. And IMO, this has been caused by the rule changes. I mentioned earlier encouraged by the rule changes.

It's true that rules have been changing for years. This began a few years back with greater scrutiny given to pass interference and holding. It continued after Brady's knee injury with several rules designed to protect QBs - they cannot be touched above the neck or below the waist. And finally, in light of the concussion crisis, DBs are now tip-toeing around trying to make a tackle but not get fined or suspended. The other change is probably more minor but relates to the positioning of the referee in the backfield as opposed to in the middle of the defense, thus (supposedly) unable to spot offensive holding as well. These things add up - initially, the rule changes resulted in incremental increases in passing output, but as the rules combined last year - such that WRs can't be touched on their routes, QBs can't be touched even when the D-linemen can get to him, and WRs can't be viciously hit after the catch - it seems like a spike in production makes sense, with no obvious indication that the trend will reverse, although it certainly could plateau.
Click to expand...
When I say there was virtually no change, this is what I mean:2011 17,410 passes

2010 17,269 passes

That is 141 passes / 32 teams = 4.4 passes

4.4 passes / 16 games = 0.275 passes per game

I don't think it's fair to say that an increase in passes that is this small has any impact. So, why the huge disparity in points from one year to the next? This nominal increase has no correlation to the massive uptick we witnessed.

Is the Y@C yards after catch? If so, I have no idea where to find how many receptions were made in 2011. If someone can point me to it, I'm happy to crunch the numbers, but my guess is that two tenths of a yard per catch will not move the needle as much, relative to the uptick in overall passing performance.

That's not to say that your earlier point about rule changes can't be a significant contributor, but these stats don't make the case.

 
'-jb- said:
When I say there was virtually no change, this is what I mean:2011 17,410 passes2010 17,269 passesThat is 141 passes / 32 teams = 4.4 passes4.4 passes / 16 games = 0.275 passes per gameI don't think it's fair to say that an increase in passes that is this small has any impact. So, why the huge disparity in points from one year to the next? This nominal increase has no correlation to the massive uptick we witnessed. Is the Y@C yards after catch? If so, I have no idea where to find how many receptions were made in 2011. If someone can point me to it, I'm happy to crunch the numbers, but my guess is that two tenths of a yard per catch will not move the needle as much, relative to the uptick in overall passing performance. That's not to say that your earlier point about rule changes can't be a significant contributor, but these stats don't make the case.
Click to expand...
There were 10,464 receptions last year. The .2 ypc translates to roughly an extra 2100 yards or about 65 per team.
 
'-jb- said:
'karmarooster said:
'-jb- said:
Good stuff guys, and it's why I started the thread. From the last three posts:

ROOSTER

Passing Stats

Looking at these passing percentage stats, I see a similarity to the ~1% growth mentioned earlier. 2008, 2009, and 2010 saw an increase of less than 1% per year, and there was virtually no increase in 2011...if this is all perceived to be a systemic issue, then why have these numbers crept along at the same relative pace?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure what you're saying here? There was virtually no increase last year? It looks to me like the the league is continually shifting away from the run to the pass, albeit incrementally over the last several seasons, AND that the output/production PER pass is increasing at the same time. You could easily assume that a shift from running to passing would result in more passes, but for less output each time, due to defensive adjustments. That sounds like a classic west-coast offense of short routes, utilizing the TEs and RBs, and using short passes as an extended handoff. Instead, if run/pass balance shifts to pass AND output increases for every pass attempted or completed, that is evidence of a systemic shift - more passing for more yardage each time. And IMO, this has been caused by the rule changes. I mentioned earlier encouraged by the rule changes.

It's true that rules have been changing for years. This began a few years back with greater scrutiny given to pass interference and holding. It continued after Brady's knee injury with several rules designed to protect QBs - they cannot be touched above the neck or below the waist. And finally, in light of the concussion crisis, DBs are now tip-toeing around trying to make a tackle but not get fined or suspended. The other change is probably more minor but relates to the positioning of the referee in the backfield as opposed to in the middle of the defense, thus (supposedly) unable to spot offensive holding as well. These things add up - initially, the rule changes resulted in incremental increases in passing output, but as the rules combined last year - such that WRs can't be touched on their routes, QBs can't be touched even when the D-linemen can get to him, and WRs can't be viciously hit after the catch - it seems like a spike in production makes sense, with no obvious indication that the trend will reverse, although it certainly could plateau.
Click to expand...
When I say there was virtually no change, this is what I mean:2011 17,410 passes

2010 17,269 passes

That is 141 passes / 32 teams = 4.4 passes

4.4 passes / 16 games = 0.275 passes per game

I don't think it's fair to say that an increase in passes that is this small has any impact. So, why the huge disparity in points from one year to the next? This nominal increase has no correlation to the massive uptick we witnessed.

Is the Y@C yards after catch? If so, I have no idea where to find how many receptions were made in 2011. If someone can point me to it, I'm happy to crunch the numbers, but my guess is that two tenths of a yard per catch will not move the needle as much, relative to the uptick in overall passing performance.

That's not to say that your earlier point about rule changes can't be a significant contributor, but these stats don't make the case.
Click to expand...
Y@C means "yards AT catch," meaning that the receivers are catching the ball more downfield. I think this attemps to isolate the effects of WRs running with the ball in their hands, and focuses on where the QB is actually throwing the ball. Although, of course, better QBs are able to lead their WRs and contribute to the yards after catch. If you combined the shift of passing/rushing balance and the shift down the field, it's more substantial than .275 passes per game per team: (please double check my work here, not great at math!)

17,410 passes x 6.4 Y@C = 111,424

17,269 passes x 6.2 Y@C = 107,067

That's an increase of 3.9%.

Further, if you look at the stats from 2008, it's an increase of 11%.

 
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'Modog814 said:
'-jb- said:
When I say there was virtually no change, this is what I mean:2011 17,410 passes2010 17,269 passesThat is 141 passes / 32 teams = 4.4 passes4.4 passes / 16 games = 0.275 passes per gameI don't think it's fair to say that an increase in passes that is this small has any impact. So, why the huge disparity in points from one year to the next? This nominal increase has no correlation to the massive uptick we witnessed. Is the Y@C yards after catch? If so, I have no idea where to find how many receptions were made in 2011. If someone can point me to it, I'm happy to crunch the numbers, but my guess is that two tenths of a yard per catch will not move the needle as much, relative to the uptick in overall passing performance. That's not to say that your earlier point about rule changes can't be a significant contributor, but these stats don't make the case.
Click to expand...
There were 10,464 receptions last year. The .2 ypc translates to roughly an extra 2100 yards or about 65 per team.
Click to expand...
Thanks, Modog. :thumbup:
 
FWIW, the actual article from ESPN that provided these stats supports your point of view:

Maybe it pays like never before to make sure you grab an elite QB in the first couple rounds of your draft.Maybe.Certainly, that was the case in 2011. The elite fantasy QBs outscored the merely good ones by such an immense degree that five of the top 10 most valuable players in terms of Value-Based Drafting were signal-callers. We haven't seen more than one QB finish in that particular top 10 since '04, and that year, only two did it.I'm not sure if that's repeatable. Last season wasn't just a case of the NFL suddenly becoming incredibly pass-heavy, and that's why you should now consider taking a QB in the first or second round. No, while the league is throwing more in recent years, the change has been gradual:[stats]The play-calling change from '10 to '11 simply doesn't explain a dramatic change in the best QBs' VBD ratings. Nor (as you can see above) does league-wide average "yards at the catch" (Avg. Y@C) suffice as an explanation; teams may be passing it to receivers who are slightly further down the field, but the year-over-year change isn't enough to describe why the best QBs were suddenly so much better than the rest. Indeed, to see five QBs in the VBD top 10 necessarily means that only a select few QBs have taken some kind of giant step forward. The merely good among QBs have remained merely good.It's an open question whether these top signal-calling options can keep producing numbers that are so much better than their merely-good peers. Let's run through a roundup of the major players at the position, then reconvene to draw conclusions.
Click to expand...
 
'karmarooster said:
Y@C means "yards AT catch," meaning that the receivers are catching the ball more downfield. I think this attemps to isolate the effects of WRs running with the ball in their hands, and focuses on where the QB is actually throwing the ball. Although, of course, better QBs are able to lead their WRs and contribute to the yards after catch. If you combined the shift of passing/rushing balance and the shift down the field, it's more substantial than .275 passes per game per team: (please double check my work here, not great at math!)17,410 passes x 6.4 Y@C = 111,42417,269 passes x 6.2 Y@C = 107,067That's an increase of 3.9%. Further, if you look at the stats from 2008, it's an increase of 11%.
Click to expand...
Interesting, I've never seen Y@C before...Anyway to correct your work, you'd have to factor in completion %'s because not all pass attempts are "catches" so you can't apply the whole .2 differential in Y@C to every pass attempt. However, assuming that completion %'s are close, you'll probably arrive at a similar answer.
 
How much did kickoffs being moved to the 35 yard line attribute to increased yardage totals?

Was there a significant decrease in the average starting position for teams because of this?

 
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'Modog814 said:
'karmarooster said:
Y@C means "yards AT catch," meaning that the receivers are catching the ball more downfield. I think this attemps to isolate the effects of WRs running with the ball in their hands, and focuses on where the QB is actually throwing the ball. Although, of course, better QBs are able to lead their WRs and contribute to the yards after catch. If you combined the shift of passing/rushing balance and the shift down the field, it's more substantial than .275 passes per game per team: (please double check my work here, not great at math!)17,410 passes x 6.4 Y@C = 111,42417,269 passes x 6.2 Y@C = 107,067That's an increase of 3.9%. Further, if you look at the stats from 2008, it's an increase of 11%.
Click to expand...
Interesting, I've never seen Y@C before...Anyway to correct your work, you'd have to factor in completion %'s because not all pass attempts are "catches" so you can't apply the whole .2 differential in Y@C to every pass attempt. However, assuming that completion %'s are close, you'll probably arrive at a similar answer.
Click to expand...
To answer my own concern....there was a .65% decrease in completion percentage last year from 60.75 to 60.1%. Factoring those in the answer drops to 2.9% increase.
 
'netnalp said:
How much did kickoffs being moved to the 35 yard line attribute to increased yardage totals?Was there a significant decrease in the average starting position for teams because of this?
Click to expand...
From ESPN
Code: 
Avg Starting Field Position After Kickoff2011 22.1 2010 26.8 2009 26.4 2008 27.2 2007 28.1
 
'Modog814 said:
'netnalp said:
How much did kickoffs being moved to the 35 yard line attribute to increased yardage totals?Was there a significant decrease in the average starting position for teams because of this?
Click to expand...
From ESPN
Code: 
Avg Starting Field Position After Kickoff2011 22.1 2010 26.8 2009 26.4 2008 27.2 2007 28.1
Click to expand...
This has been decreasing since they first outlawed the full wedge formation on KRs. Looks like a gradual decline due to coverage rule changes, followed by substantial drop due to the kickoff change. Since 2007, the starting field position has ben pushed back 6 yards, so 21% since 2007, or 16% since 2010? How many kick returns are there for all teams in 2012?Whatever amount of potential yardage per game, it has to make the pie bigger. When you combine that with the Pass/Run percentage shift from 53.9 to 55.5%, it adds up to: 1.6% increase in passes X 3.1% increase in distance per pass X more potential yardage?
 
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Also might want to see if challenges, changes to replay and other rule changes have caused more stoppages thus increasing the average number of plays called in a game or total plays called by the league each season

 
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The passing trend is not going away, in fact I think it will continue the upswing moving forward.

I'd like to point to the Falcons as an example, and not on offense, I point to their defensive shift. The Falcons already had two strong CB's with Daunte Robinson and Brent Grimes. Yes, you can argue Robinson, but he does serve his purpose. The Falcons then went out and grabbed Asante Samuel adding their 3rd strong CB.

Of course, one of the Falcons biggest humps is getting over the pass happy and NFC South rival Saints, so while this was in part to attack the Saints passing attack, it really goes to show that you need three CB's on the field at any given time with more passing downs emerging as the NFL progresses.

 
'Defending Champs said:
The passing trend is not going away, in fact I think it will continue the upswing moving forward. I'd like to point to the Falcons as an example, and not on offense, I point to their defensive shift. The Falcons already had two strong CB's with Daunte Robinson and Brent Grimes. Yes, you can argue Robinson, but he does serve his purpose. The Falcons then went out and grabbed Asante Samuel adding their 3rd strong CB.Of course, one of the Falcons biggest humps is getting over the pass happy and NFC South rival Saints, so while this was in part to attack the Saints passing attack, it really goes to show that you need three CB's on the field at any given time with more passing downs emerging as the NFL progresses.
Click to expand...
So, what do you see happening in 2012, league-wide? Will we see five 5000+ yard passers this year, or will things come down slightly? I agree that the trend is not going away. I'm just trying to get a handle on what it means this year. The numbers speak to a fairly slow growth, but we saw an explosion last year. Lots of theories as to why, but after looking at the numbers, I am finding it hard to believe that last year wasn't an anomaly...yet many are assuming that the regression will only be minor.So far, the most plausible explanation I have read in this thread was the impact of the lockout. Some agree, some don't.
 
'Defending Champs said:
The passing trend is not going away, in fact I think it will continue the upswing moving forward. I'd like to point to the Falcons as an example, and not on offense, I point to their defensive shift. The Falcons already had two strong CB's with Daunte Robinson and Brent Grimes. Yes, you can argue Robinson, but he does serve his purpose. The Falcons then went out and grabbed Asante Samuel adding their 3rd strong CB.Of course, one of the Falcons biggest humps is getting over the pass happy and NFC South rival Saints, so while this was in part to attack the Saints passing attack, it really goes to show that you need three CB's on the field at any given time with more passing downs emerging as the NFL progresses.
Click to expand...
Philly had 3 last year and they were only really middle of the pack. And the Giants seemed to do okay with mediocrity in the defensive back field as they did a pretty good job against GB and NE in the playoffs. I'd argue that having a consistent pass rush (with minimal blitzing) is way more important in slowing teams like the Saints/Patriots/Packers down than having 3 strong CB's. Giants/Texans/Ravens were all examples of this last year.
 
"So, what do you see happening in 2012, league-wide? Will we see five 5000+ yard passers this year, or will things come down slightly? I agree that the trend is not going away. I'm just trying to get a handle on what it means this year. The numbers speak to a fairly slow growth, but we saw an explosion last year. Lots of theories as to why, but after looking at the numbers, I am finding it hard to believe that last year wasn't an anomaly...yet many are assuming that the regression will only be minor."

So far, the most plausible explanation I have read in this thread was the impact of the lockout. Some agree, some don't.

For fantasy purposes, I am beginning to thing you will see Brees, Rodgers, and Brady come back to reality a touch but I also think you will see some of the others creep up a bit.

Here a few QB's who can easily see an increase in production.

Matt Ryan: Turner will see a decreased role and with the ever efficient Roddy White and an improving Julio Jones, this has the makings of a 35-40+ TD year with Ryan finally fully coming into his own at the peak of his career. The new Falcon OC has said on multiple occasions they will be doing two things this season. 1. Stretch the field 2. Use the screen play more (hard not too)

Big Ben: The Mendenhall injury does a couple things. Redman is the default runner who isn't be best pure runner, he's a better pass catcher and I think you'll see his use in the passing game more so than you will in the running game. Combine that with Todd Haley now running the offense who has never shied away from throwing the football (see years in Arizona, 2008 they were 2nd in the league in passing offense) and no real solid RB till Mendenhall comes back, this has pass happy written all over it.

Tony Romo: Say what you want to about the guy, but his FF numbers speak for themselves. If Dez Bryant can make all this off the field stuff go away (might be tough) I can see the two coming together nicely this season in tandem with one of the best duos in the league with Miles Austin. Throw in Witten and pass catching abilities of Felix, Romo's numbers have a solid chance to improve, but again the Bryant situation isn't helping a bit.

 
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'-jb- said:
'Defending Champs said:
The passing trend is not going away, in fact I think it will continue the upswing moving forward. I'd like to point to the Falcons as an example, and not on offense, I point to their defensive shift. The Falcons already had two strong CB's with Daunte Robinson and Brent Grimes. Yes, you can argue Robinson, but he does serve his purpose. The Falcons then went out and grabbed Asante Samuel adding their 3rd strong CB.Of course, one of the Falcons biggest humps is getting over the pass happy and NFC South rival Saints, so while this was in part to attack the Saints passing attack, it really goes to show that you need three CB's on the field at any given time with more passing downs emerging as the NFL progresses.
Click to expand...
So, what do you see happening in 2012, league-wide? Will we see five 5000+ yard passers this year, or will things come down slightly? I agree that the trend is not going away. I'm just trying to get a handle on what it means this year. The numbers speak to a fairly slow growth, but we saw an explosion last year. Lots of theories as to why, but after looking at the numbers, I am finding it hard to believe that last year wasn't an anomaly...yet many are assuming that the regression will only be minor.So far, the most plausible explanation I have read in this thread was the impact of the lockout. Some agree, some don't.
Click to expand...
'Modog814 said:
'Defending Champs said:
The passing trend is not going away, in fact I think it will continue the upswing moving forward. I'd like to point to the Falcons as an example, and not on offense, I point to their defensive shift. The Falcons already had two strong CB's with Daunte Robinson and Brent Grimes. Yes, you can argue Robinson, but he does serve his purpose. The Falcons then went out and grabbed Asante Samuel adding their 3rd strong CB.Of course, one of the Falcons biggest humps is getting over the pass happy and NFC South rival Saints, so while this was in part to attack the Saints passing attack, it really goes to show that you need three CB's on the field at any given time with more passing downs emerging as the NFL progresses.
Click to expand...
Philly had 3 last year and they were only really middle of the pack. And the Giants seemed to do okay with mediocrity in the defensive back field as they did a pretty good job against GB and NE in the playoffs. I'd argue that having a consistent pass rush (with minimal blitzing) is way more important in slowing teams like the Saints/Patriots/Packers down than having 3 strong CB's. Giants/Texans/Ravens were all examples of this last year.
Click to expand...
I agree with the concept of the a pass rush slowing down these types of teams. The Falcons are going with the theory they have the pass rushers with Abraham and Ray Edwards (injured last season to slow him down), but they feal new DC Mike Nolan will get more out of the players in place. This includes emerging LB Sean Weatherspoon who it is believed will be used more in blitz type situations utilizing his full potential most importantly his speed. So in short, the 3rd CB is suppose to be an addition to the existing plan, not to replace it.
 
'Modog814 said:
that definitely has me thinking of going back to the old Stud RB theory
Click to expand...
I am/was a big stud RB theorist but I disagree and it's not just last season, this movement towards a 2 back system, lot more passing, those things have been going on for years not just last season. Manning breaks the passing TD mark a few years back, next season Brady takes the crown, breed and several others shatter the 5,000 yard mark held for close to 30 years by Dan Marino...this isn't just 1 bad off season, this has been building for a long time IMO.

I have been reading your posts, enjoy them thoroughly.

 
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'Ministry of Pain said:
'Modog814 said:
that definitely has me thinking of going back to the old Stud RB theory
Click to expand...
I am/was a big stud RB theorist but I disagree and it's not just last season, this movement towards a 2 back system, lot more passing, those things have been going on for years not just last season. Manning breaks the passing TD mark a few years back, next season Brady takes the crown, breed and several others shatter the 5,000 yard mark held for close to 30 years by Dan Marino...this isn't just 1 bad off season, this has been building for a long time IMO.

I have been reading your posts, enjoy them thoroughly.
Click to expand...
Gotta place all of this is into the VBD theory, though. A lack of workhorse backs makes the few that exist more valuable, and if the rise of the QB is truly systemic, then the rising tide lifts all ships.
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
'Modog814 said:
that definitely has me thinking of going back to the old Stud RB theory
Click to expand...
I am/was a big stud RB theorist but I disagree and it's not just last season, this movement towards a 2 back system, lot more passing, those things have been going on for years not just last season. Manning breaks the passing TD mark a few years back, next season Brady takes the crown, breed and several others shatter the 5,000 yard mark held for close to 30 years by Dan Marino...this isn't just 1 bad off season, this has been building for a long time IMO.

I have been reading your posts, enjoy them thoroughly.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but don't you think that back when just Manning did it or just Brady different, it warrented a move away from the Stud RB theory. You actually had 1 or 2 QB's (and a handful of WR's) that getting those (and assuming health) meant you were basically in the playoffs. Now, it's not just Manning or Brady, is Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Newton, Vick, Romo, Eli, Rivers. They've all narrowed the gap where having a Rodgers/Brees/Brady on your team isn't as great an advantage as it once was. And as you state, the continued movement toward 2 back systems make bell cow RB's even more valuable. Now, I'm not saying pass on player X at all costs in the first round. I stated in another thread that given the right format, I'd take Graham with the 3rd pick (this was in the Mock FPC thread). What I am saying is I'd consider grabbing two RB's that are going to get the majority of their teams touches and "settling" for Nicks/Jennings/Marshall in the 3rd, Vick or Rivers and Gates or Hernandez in the 4th and 5th, not only a very viable strategy, but perhaps the better one. As my initial comments in this thread about the data the OP gave, yes passing is trending up upwards, but the little hidden fact in that data is that the gap between QB1 and QB12 is shrinking.

 
'Modog814 said:
As my initial comments in this thread about the data the OP gave, yes passing is trending up upwards, but the little hidden fact in that data is that the gap between QB1 and QB12 is shrinking.
Click to expand...
I ran the numbers this morning. I need to go be a grown-up for a few hours, but will be back to post my findings.
 
Why do you guys find the most compelling nugget ITT the supposed soft-factor of 'defenses not having practice camp' to be the most compelling explanation? If you remember, before the season, pundits were all about how defenses would be up to speed more quickly than offenses, which has to rely on timing and more complex plays whereas the defense is more about reactions. They were predicting that the offenses would struggle in the early season. It doesn't make sense to me. The lack of the offseason affected both sides.

It seems like these quantifiable numbers add up to something significant:

'karmarooster said:
'Modog814 said:
'netnalp said:
How much did kickoffs being moved to the 35 yard line attribute to increased yardage totals?

Was there a significant decrease in the average starting position for teams because of this?
Click to expand...
From ESPN

Avg Starting Field Position After Kickoff2011 22.1 2010 26.8 2009 26.4 2008 27.2 2007 28.1
Click to expand...
This has been decreasing since they first outlawed the full wedge formation on KRs. Looks like a gradual decline due to coverage rule changes, followed by substantial drop due to the kickoff change. Since 2007, the starting field position has ben pushed back 6 yards, so 21% since 2007, or 16% since 2010? How many kick returns are there for all teams in 2012?

Whatever amount of potential yardage per game, it has to make the pie bigger. When you combine that with the Pass/Run percentage shift from 53.9 to 55.5%, it adds up to:

1.6% increase in passes X 3.1% increase in distance per pass X more potential yardage?
Click to expand...
 
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I think it will be several quantifiable factors that will add up to increased production.

So far we have come across:



Increase in passes

Increase in distance per pass

Decrease in average starting position

Add to that the trend that the average number of plays called has been going up.

League Average number of plays per game per week:

2011 63.7

2010 63.1

2009 62.9

2008 61.9

That's taking the weekly average of all teams into account. We may see more trends if we look at teams that have fantasy QB1's.

Data from http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/plays-per-game

 
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'karmarooster said:
Why do you guys find the most compelling nugget ITT the supposed soft-factor of 'defenses not having practice camp' to be the most compelling explanation? If you remember, before the season, pundits were all about how defenses would be up to speed more quickly than offenses, which has to rely on timing and more complex plays whereas the defense is more about reactions. They were predicting that the offenses would struggle in the early season. It doesn't make sense to me. The lack of the offseason affected both sides.

It seems like these quantifiable numbers add up to something significant:

This has been decreasing since they first outlawed the full wedge formation on KRs. Looks like a gradual decline due to coverage rule changes, followed by substantial drop due to the kickoff change. Since 2007, the starting field position has ben pushed back 6 yards, so 21% since 2007, or 16% since 2010?

How many kick returns are there for all teams in 2012?

Whatever amount of potential yardage per game, it has to make the pie bigger. When you combine that with the Pass/Run percentage shift from 53.9 to 55.5%, it adds up to:

1.6% increase in passes X 3.1% increase in distance per pass X more potential yardage?
Click to expand...
I find most pundits are wrong most of the time. But logically I think it makes sense that defenses would need more time than offenses, since defenses rely so much on trust and team work (i.e. the CB needs to trust that he can let his guy go on a fly route because he knows his safety is where he's supposed to be). I don't think it's the only reason as I believe we are trending up in terms of passing, but I think last year was, I really don't want to say outlier but for lack a better term, I'll say outlier.

Last year due to whatever you want to call it (more touchbacks, weaker defenses, whatever) we saw a 3.2% increase in total yardage (that is yards from pass or run, not return or penalty).

 
Here is the data compiled for the top 12 QBs from 1990-2011 using AVERAGE rather than MEDIAN, along with some observations. Some interesting data that does not reflect my original observations.

DATA

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011QB1 422 334 362 367 425 421 390 361 446 412 419 384 378 343 461 338 384 496 389 418 376 490QB2 407 326 300 322 363 387 367 336 354 396 414 368 357 341 457 322 332 377 361 382 374 489QB3 317 307 297 262 344 357 331 327 339 326 373 344 339 318 373 312 323 347 357 362 368 462QB4 290 303 276 258 303 340 317 323 310 326 366 338 334 317 339 293 319 338 351 360 366 433QB5 279 272 261 247 282 327 317 301 297 309 346 330 327 311 326 288 314 328 347 357 365 431QB6 267 265 253 240 272 324 312 293 289 283 337 323 321 305 324 280 299 322 319 353 352 366QB7 266 260 251 240 271 307 238 287 283 274 290 320 317 291 322 280 283 321 316 346 322 355QB8 264 254 244 233 270 305 234 278 278 262 277 319 317 290 305 274 266 319 307 344 319 350QB9 250 245 237 231 263 282 230 272 267 256 269 287 311 288 303 274 257 298 279 342 317 336QB10 243 204 226 228 262 281 229 256 266 250 268 283 306 284 302 271 250 279 276 315 312 314QB11 228 202 213 220 245 275 212 246 258 236 262 263 293 282 299 268 248 273 274 396 301 292QB12 224 192 212 219 228 243 206 243 246 235 251 261 271 274 270 264 241 271 263 294 294 288TOTAL 3457 3164 3132 3067 3528 3849 3383 3523 3633 3565 3872 3820 3871 3644 4081 3464 3516 3969 3839 4269 4066 4606AVERAGE 288.08 263.67 261.00 255.58 294.00 320.75 281.92 293.58 302.75 297.08 322.67 318.33 322.58 303.67 340.08 288.67 293.00 330.75 319.92 355.75 338.83 383.83CHANGE -24.42 -2.67 -5.42 38.42 26.75 -38.83 11.67 9.17 -5.67 25.58 -4.33 4.25 -18.92 36.42 -51.42 4.33 37.75 -10.83 35.83 -16.92 45.00%CHANGE -8% -1% -2% 15% 9% -12% 4% 3% -2% 9% -1% 1% -6% 12% -15% 2% 13% -3% 11% -5% 13%NOTES:- The most significant spikes in production took place in 1994 (15%), 2004 (12%), 2007 (13%), 2009 (11%), and 2011 (15%). I find this interesting given the frequency in which it happened more recently (2004-Present).

- The more recent years (2004, 2007, 2009) were always followed with a drop-off (-15%, -3%, -5%), but not nearly as significant as the median numbers showed. This is more in-line with the projections we're seeing.

- There doesn't seem to be a direct correlation on rules for these years, but there certainly could be a cumulative impact.

- 2005 was the lowest FF points average for a QB in nine years.

- If we use 2004 as a starting point, there has been a 13% increase in average 1QB FF points.

- If we use 2005 as a starting point, there has been a 33% increase. yowza.

This data seems to tell a different story, doesn't it? I think I've changed my mind at this point. Still need to look at it some more.

How does this change or reinforce your thinking?

 
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