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A look back at the FBG Mag Under/Over Valued Articles (1 Viewer)

Joe T

Joe T

Footballguy
Here are the links to the 2009 articles -

Value Plays

Overvalued Players

Here is a summarized list of players from each article (these are players that received four votes and above).

Under Valued article

12 Votes

David Garrard

8 Votes

Carson Palmer

7 Votes

Knowshon Mareno

6 Votes

Larry Johnson

Donovan McNabb

Chad Ochocinco

Donnie Avery

Greg Olsen

Matt Hasselbeck

Jeremy Shockey

5 Votes

Jericho Cotchery

Donald Driver

Tory Holt

Dustin Keller

4 Votes

Ladanian Tomlinson

Clinton Portis

Pierre Thomas

Chris Wells

Matt Schaub

Bernard Berrian

Trent Edwards

Kyle Orton

Zach Miller

Over Valued Article

8 Votes

Tony Romo

7 Votes

Matt Cassel

6 Votes

Chris Johnson

Brandon Marshall

5 Votes

Matt Forte

Joseph Addai

Roy Williams

Matt Ryan

Le’Ron McClain

Tony Scheffler

4 Votes

Drew Brees

Kurt Warner

Vincent Jackson

Jay Cutler

Lee Evans

Steve Breaston

I don't want to draw any conclusions based on one season, but the idea of voting on undervalued and overvalued players might not be so good.

 
So Schaub, McNabb, Cotchery, Moreno were the only ones I think were incorrectly valued lowly. Moreno was solid, Cotch was very solid when he played, McNabb and Schaub were both great.

Overvalued correctly (as in not overvalued) Warner, Brees, VJax, Addai, CJ4.24, Marshall, Romo.

 
Instinctive said:
So Schaub, McNabb, Cotchery, Moreno were the only ones I think were incorrectly valued lowly. Moreno was solid, Cotch was very solid when he played, McNabb and Schaub were both great.Overvalued correctly (as in not overvalued) Warner, Brees, VJax, Addai, CJ4.24, Marshall, Romo.
Click to expand...
I think you may be reading it backwards.They were saying Moreno was undervalued... ie he would outperform his ADP.
 
Joe T said:
Instinctive said:
So Schaub, McNabb, Cotchery, Moreno were the only ones I think were incorrectly valued lowly. Moreno was solid, Cotch was very solid when he played, McNabb and Schaub were both great.Overvalued correctly (as in not overvalued) Warner, Brees, VJax, Addai, CJ4.24, Marshall, Romo.
Click to expand...
I think you may be reading it backwards.They were saying Moreno was undervalued... ie he would outperform his ADP.
Click to expand...
I think i've got it down. Those guys, like Moreno, were undervalued. They did do better than their ADP. I would want those guys on my team again, at that ADP, if I replayed the season.
 
All of the finishes were from my league, 1ppr

Under Valued article

12 Votes

David Garrard ADPQB20 - Finished QB 12

8 Votes

Carson Palmer ADPQB13 - Finished QB18

7 Votes

Knowshon Mareno ADP RB27 - Finished RB21

6 Votes

Larry Johnson ADP RB25 - Finished RB55

Donovan McNabb ADP QB8 - Finished QB 10

Chad Ochocinco ADP WR23 - Finished WR15

Donnie Avery ADP WR32 - Finished WR 50

Greg Olsen ADP TE8 - Finished TE 11

Matt Hasselbeck ADP QB16 - Finished QB21

Jeremy Shockey ADP TE15 - Finished TE 17

5 Votes

Jericho Cotchery ADP WR30 - Finished WR32

Donald Driver ADP WR35 - Finished WR20

Tory Holt ADP WR37 - Finished WR59

Dustin Keller ADP TE10 - Finished TE19

4 Votes

Ladanian Tomlinson ADP RB11- Finished RB26

Clinton Portis ADP RB13 - Finished RB58,

Pierre Thomas ADP RB22 - Finished RB19

Chris Wells ADP RB29 - Finished RB38

Matt Schaub ADP QB11 - Finished QB3

Bernard Berrian ADP WR28 - Finished WR 49

Trent Edwards ADP QB18 - Finished QB33

Kyle Orton ADP QB19 - Finished QB15

Zach Miller ADP TE12 - Finished TE10

Just a quick glance seems they were about 50% on hits/misses from this article.

 
it's always a crap shoot. the value i find in these types of articles is how to adjust for adp and to get an idea of who might rise or fall come draft time.

 
I'm not going to speak for the entirety of those who participated in the article, but I definitely felt like this wasn't one of my best efforts. :lmao: But like anything, the key is to make fewer mistakes than your opponents. In a year when I felt like I left a lot of projections and rankings on the table and draft day, I ended up having one of my best seasons ever in terms of competing. It's all part of the process.

 
Instinctive said:
Joe T said:
Instinctive said:
So Schaub, McNabb, Cotchery, Moreno were the only ones I think were incorrectly valued lowly. Moreno was solid, Cotch was very solid when he played, McNabb and Schaub were both great.Overvalued correctly (as in not overvalued) Warner, Brees, VJax, Addai, CJ4.24, Marshall, Romo.
Click to expand...
I think you may be reading it backwards.They were saying Moreno was undervalued... ie he would outperform his ADP.
Click to expand...
I think i've got it down. Those guys, like Moreno, were undervalued. They did do better than their ADP. I would want those guys on my team again, at that ADP, if I replayed the season.
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You also missed Chad Johnson as well. In most of my seasonal leagues last season, he was drafted around #20-30 WR. He definitely outperformed that ranking, yes?
 
How did Roy Williams not get eleventy billion votes prior to this season? There never has or ever will be another bust of that magnitude (Brandon Lloyd is the only thing that comes close)

 
I can't speak for anyone else and I don't want to make excuses, but we get assigned and have to turn these in months before the seasons starts. Clearly having more insight around opening day would be helpful in these types of exercises. And if you pick a player that spent anytime injured as undervalued, that guy is DOA from that point on.

But here's how I did . . .

Brett Favre 25 actual 3 = + (only one that picked him)

Matt Hasselbeck 16 actual 20 = -

Kyle Orton 17 actual 16 = +

Philip Rivers 5 actual 7 = +

Matt Ryan 9 actual 19 = +

Tony Romo 7 actual 6 = -

Jay Cutler 10 actual 13 = +

Frank Gore 9 actual 5 = + (only one that picked him)

Cedric Benson 31 actual 16 = +

Clinton Portis 14 actual 53 = -

Sammy Morris 55 actual 58 = -

Chris Johnson 5 actual 1 = -

Brian Westbrook 9 actual 61 = + (only one that picked him)

Derrick Ward 26 actual 50 = +

Tim Hightower 40 actual 22 = -

Randy Moss 4 actual 2 = + (only one that picked him)

Donnie Avery 32 actual 47 = -

Donald Driver 36 actual 18 = +

Derrick Mason 39 actual 17 = + (only one to pick him and he was retired)

Roy Williams 16 actual 37 = +

Lee Evans 24 actual 35 = +

Marques Colston 10 actual 13 = +

Jeremy Macklin 44 actual 40 = -

Michael Crabtree 43 actual 64 = +

Steve Breaston 38 actual 46 = +

Zack Miller 11 actual 12 = -

John Carlson 9 actual 11 = -

Tony Gonzalez 3 actual 5 = +

I count 18 + and 10 - but five of the minuses were off by a couple spots. I'm guessing that overall is a decent outcome . . .

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Spin said:
All of the finishes were from my league, 1pprUnder Valued article12 VotesDavid Garrard ADPQB20 - Finished QB 128 VotesCarson Palmer ADPQB13 - Finished QB187 VotesKnowshon Mareno ADP RB27 - Finished RB216 VotesLarry Johnson ADP RB25 - Finished RB55Donovan McNabb ADP QB8 - Finished QB 10Chad Ochocinco ADP WR23 - Finished WR15Donnie Avery ADP WR32 - Finished WR 50Greg Olsen ADP TE8 - Finished TE 11Matt Hasselbeck ADP QB16 - Finished QB21 Jeremy Shockey ADP TE15 - Finished TE 175 VotesJericho Cotchery ADP WR30 - Finished WR32Donald Driver ADP WR35 - Finished WR20Tory Holt ADP WR37 - Finished WR59Dustin Keller ADP TE10 - Finished TE194 VotesLadanian Tomlinson ADP RB11- Finished RB26Clinton Portis ADP RB13 - Finished RB58, Pierre Thomas ADP RB22 - Finished RB19Chris Wells ADP RB29 - Finished RB38Matt Schaub ADP QB11 - Finished QB3Bernard Berrian ADP WR28 - Finished WR 49Trent Edwards ADP QB18 - Finished QB33Kyle Orton ADP QB19 - Finished QB15Zach Miller ADP TE12 - Finished TE10Just a quick glance seems they were about 50% on hits/misses from this article.
Click to expand...
If by "about 50%" you mean exactly 34.7%, then yea.
 
Stewy said:
Spin said:
All of the finishes were from my league, 1pprUnder Valued article12 VotesDavid Garrard ADPQB20 - Finished QB 128 VotesCarson Palmer ADPQB13 - Finished QB187 VotesKnowshon Mareno ADP RB27 - Finished RB216 VotesLarry Johnson ADP RB25 - Finished RB55Donovan McNabb ADP QB8 - Finished QB 10Chad Ochocinco ADP WR23 - Finished WR15Donnie Avery ADP WR32 - Finished WR 50Greg Olsen ADP TE8 - Finished TE 11Matt Hasselbeck ADP QB16 - Finished QB21 Jeremy Shockey ADP TE15 - Finished TE 175 VotesJericho Cotchery ADP WR30 - Finished WR32Donald Driver ADP WR35 - Finished WR20Tory Holt ADP WR37 - Finished WR59Dustin Keller ADP TE10 - Finished TE194 VotesLadanian Tomlinson ADP RB11- Finished RB26Clinton Portis ADP RB13 - Finished RB58, Pierre Thomas ADP RB22 - Finished RB19Chris Wells ADP RB29 - Finished RB38Matt Schaub ADP QB11 - Finished QB3Bernard Berrian ADP WR28 - Finished WR 49Trent Edwards ADP QB18 - Finished QB33Kyle Orton ADP QB19 - Finished QB15Zach Miller ADP TE12 - Finished TE10Just a quick glance seems they were about 50% on hits/misses from this article.
Click to expand...
If by "about 50%" you mean exactly 34.7%, then yea.
Click to expand...
I think one thing that would help is if people explained their vote next time. I would hope people don't look at a list like this and just say, O, this poll says player X is undervalued...I will draft/trade for him. And if you just are asked to list someone you probably do it quickly. But if you have to give an explanation, then even if you are wrong, at least people can see the thought process. In the big scheme of things I hope people don't come here simply for "expert answers." I don't. I want to hear what other knowledgable people think about why a player will do well or poorly. Then I can judge for myself if I agree with the assessment.
 
az_prof said:
Stewy said:
Spin said:
All of the finishes were from my league, 1ppr

Under Valued article

12 Votes

David Garrard ADPQB20 - Finished QB 12

8 Votes

Carson Palmer ADPQB13 - Finished QB18

7 Votes

Knowshon Mareno ADP RB27 - Finished RB21

6 Votes

Larry Johnson ADP RB25 - Finished RB55

Donovan McNabb ADP QB8 - Finished QB 10

Chad Ochocinco ADP WR23 - Finished WR15

Donnie Avery ADP WR32 - Finished WR 50

Greg Olsen ADP TE8 - Finished TE 11

Matt Hasselbeck ADP QB16 - Finished QB21

Jeremy Shockey ADP TE15 - Finished TE 17

5 Votes

Jericho Cotchery ADP WR30 - Finished WR32

Donald Driver ADP WR35 - Finished WR20

Tory Holt ADP WR37 - Finished WR59

Dustin Keller ADP TE10 - Finished TE19

4 Votes

Ladanian Tomlinson ADP RB11- Finished RB26

Clinton Portis ADP RB13 - Finished RB58,

Pierre Thomas ADP RB22 - Finished RB19

Chris Wells ADP RB29 - Finished RB38

Matt Schaub ADP QB11 - Finished QB3

Bernard Berrian ADP WR28 - Finished WR 49

Trent Edwards ADP QB18 - Finished QB33

Kyle Orton ADP QB19 - Finished QB15

Zach Miller ADP TE12 - Finished TE10

Just a quick glance seems they were about 50% on hits/misses from this article.
Click to expand...
If by "about 50%" you mean exactly 34.7%, then yea.
Click to expand...
I think one thing that would help is if people explained their vote next time. I would hope people don't look at a list like this and just say, O, this poll says player X is undervalued...I will draft/trade for him. And if you just are asked to list someone you probably do it quickly. But if you have to give an explanation, then even if you are wrong, at least people can see the thought process. In the big scheme of things I hope people don't come here simply for "expert answers." I don't. I want to hear what other knowledgable people think about why a player will do well or poorly. Then I can judge for myself if I agree with the assessment.
Click to expand...
We do provide notes on the players in our rankings - especially if we have outlier opinions (either are way higher on a guy than most, or way lower on a guy than most on staff). The space limitations of a magazine (even an electronic one) requires a lot more "pruning" of the articles than our on-line efforts. We also update the Over/Under articles closer to the season: LINK - this update was released on 8/28/09

MW

 
Spin said:
All of the finishes were from my league, 1ppr

Under Valued article

12 Votes

David Garrard ADPQB20 - Finished QB 12 HIT (1-0)

8 Votes

Carson Palmer ADPQB13 - Finished QB18 MISS (1-1)

7 Votes

Knowshon Mareno ADP RB27 - Finished RB21 HIT (2-1)

6 Votes

Larry Johnson ADP RB25 - Finished RB55 MISS (2-2)

Donovan McNabb ADP QB8 - Finished QB 10 MISS (2-3)

Chad Ochocinco ADP WR23 - Finished WR15 HIT (3-3)

Donnie Avery ADP WR32 - Finished WR 50 MISS (3-4)

Greg Olsen ADP TE8 - Finished TE 11 MISS (3-5)

Matt Hasselbeck ADP QB16 - Finished QB21 MISS (3-6)

Jeremy Shockey ADP TE15 - Finished TE 17 MISS (3-7)

5 Votes

Jericho Cotchery ADP WR30 - Finished WR32 MISS (3-8)

Donald Driver ADP WR35 - Finished WR20 HIT (4-8)

Tory Holt ADP WR37 - Finished WR59 MISS (4-9)

Dustin Keller ADP TE10 - Finished TE19 MISS (4-10)

4 Votes

Ladanian Tomlinson ADP RB11- Finished RB26 MISS (4-11)

Clinton Portis ADP RB13 - Finished RB58, MISS (4-12)

Pierre Thomas ADP RB22 - Finished RB19 HIT (5-12)

Chris Wells ADP RB29 - Finished RB38 MISS (5-13)

Matt Schaub ADP QB11 - Finished QB3 HIT (6-13)

Bernard Berrian ADP WR28 - Finished WR 49 MISS (6-14)

Trent Edwards ADP QB18 - Finished QB33 MISS (6-15)

Kyle Orton ADP QB19 - Finished QB15 HIT (7-15)

Zach Miller ADP TE12 - Finished TE10 HIT (8-15)

Just a quick glance seems they were about 50% on hits/misses from this article.
Click to expand...
By my count they hit about 33% given the stated ADP. But I am giving hits for any player that out performed his ADP (by even 1 spot) and misses for all others.But it bears noting that a player's ADP would likely increase somewhat after he's listed as undervalued and if developments after this list was published cause his stock to rise. So unless the listed ADP was taken from the time the undervalued votes were taken, a comparison of the two may not be fair to the voters.

Oh, and misses for injured players with a prior clean injury history should also be tossed out.

 
David Yudkin said:
I can't speak for anyone else and I don't want to make excuses, but we get assigned and have to turn these in months before the seasons starts. Clearly having more insight around opening day would be helpful in these types of exercises. And if you pick a player that spent anytime injured as undervalued, that guy is DOA from that point on.But here's how I did . . .Brett Favre 25 actual 3 = + (only one that picked him)Matt Hasselbeck 16 actual 20 = -Kyle Orton 17 actual 16 = +Philip Rivers 5 actual 7 = +Matt Ryan 9 actual 19 = +Tony Romo 7 actual 6 = -Jay Cutler 10 actual 13 = +Frank Gore 9 actual 5 = + (only one that picked him)Cedric Benson 31 actual 16 = +Clinton Portis 14 actual 53 = -Sammy Morris 55 actual 58 = -Chris Johnson 5 actual 1 = -Brian Westbrook 9 actual 61 = + (only one that picked him)Derrick Ward 26 actual 50 = +Tim Hightower 40 actual 22 = -Randy Moss 4 actual 2 = + (only one that picked him)Donnie Avery 32 actual 47 = -Donald Driver 36 actual 18 = +Derrick Mason 39 actual 17 = + (only one to pick him and he was retired)Roy Williams 16 actual 37 = +Lee Evans 24 actual 35 = +Marques Colston 10 actual 13 = +Jeremy Macklin 44 actual 40 = -Michael Crabtree 43 actual 64 = +Steve Breaston 38 actual 46 = +Zack Miller 11 actual 12 = -John Carlson 9 actual 11 = -Tony Gonzalez 3 actual 5 = +I count 18 + and 10 - but five of the minuses were off by a couple spots. I'm guessing that overall is a decent outcome . . .
Click to expand...
You're going to have to spell this out for me. What does the first number mean? Is it ADP or your individual ranking of that player at his position? And are these your over valued or undervalued players or both?I'm not questioning your honesty, I just can't decipher what you're showing us.
 
The problem I have with the articles is that they have 30-40 players on each list. I cut it off at those with 4+ votes to make it meaningful. Sometimes FBG has players on both lists as both undervalued and overvalued.

How can this be helpful to a reader/subscriber?

Wouldn't it be far and away more helpful to take just 5-10 undervalued guys and say here are the most undervalued players and here's why.

Then do the same thing for overvalued... no more than 10.

Listing 40 guys that may be overvalued in some random vote approach seems haphazard and meaningless imho. And I think the results prove that out.

 
JamesTheScot said:
David Yudkin said:
I can't speak for anyone else and I don't want to make excuses, but we get assigned and have to turn these in months before the seasons starts. Clearly having more insight around opening day would be helpful in these types of exercises. And if you pick a player that spent anytime injured as undervalued, that guy is DOA from that point on.But here's how I did . . .Brett Favre 25 actual 3 = + (only one that picked him)Matt Hasselbeck 16 actual 20 = -Kyle Orton 17 actual 16 = +Philip Rivers 5 actual 7 = +Matt Ryan 9 actual 19 = +Tony Romo 7 actual 6 = -Jay Cutler 10 actual 13 = +Frank Gore 9 actual 5 = + (only one that picked him)Cedric Benson 31 actual 16 = +Clinton Portis 14 actual 53 = -Sammy Morris 55 actual 58 = -Chris Johnson 5 actual 1 = -Brian Westbrook 9 actual 61 = + (only one that picked him)Derrick Ward 26 actual 50 = +Tim Hightower 40 actual 22 = -Randy Moss 4 actual 2 = + (only one that picked him)Donnie Avery 32 actual 47 = -Donald Driver 36 actual 18 = +Derrick Mason 39 actual 17 = + (only one to pick him and he was retired)Roy Williams 16 actual 37 = +Lee Evans 24 actual 35 = +Marques Colston 10 actual 13 = +Jeremy Macklin 44 actual 40 = -Michael Crabtree 43 actual 64 = +Steve Breaston 38 actual 46 = +Zack Miller 11 actual 12 = -John Carlson 9 actual 11 = -Tony Gonzalez 3 actual 5 = +I count 18 + and 10 - but five of the minuses were off by a couple spots. I'm guessing that overall is a decent outcome . . .
Click to expand...
You're going to have to spell this out for me. What does the first number mean? Is it ADP or your individual ranking of that player at his position? And are these your over valued or undervalued players or both?I'm not questioning your honesty, I just can't decipher what you're showing us.
Click to expand...
The first number was the ADP of the player at the time we had to pick the players. The second number is the players actual final rank. I didn't bother to include if I felt that they were over or undervalued as that is carried over in the + or - determination.So Zack Miller had an ADP of TE11. I said he would do better than his ADP. His actual rank was TE12, so that gets scored as a minus.
 
Joe T said:
The problem I have with the articles is that they have 30-40 players on each list. I cut it off at those with 4+ votes to make it meaningful. Sometimes FBG has players on both lists as both undervalued and overvalued.

How can this be helpful to a reader/subscriber?

Wouldn't it be far and away more helpful to take just 5-10 undervalued guys and say here are the most undervalued players and here's why.

Then do the same thing for overvalued... no more than 10.

Listing 40 guys that may be overvalued in some random vote approach seems haphazard and meaningless imho. And I think the results prove that out.
Click to expand...
The issue here is similar to that with the player rankings. As AN AVERAGE, the net reult probably won't help people. But looking at particular staff contributors and seeing why they ranked players the way they did will likely help people. I think over time, readers/subscribers will follow the opinions of certain contributors and pay less attention to others.Everyone knows I rule at the over/under articles and my picks NEVER fail. :wink: I won't call out any of my brothers and sisters here, but we all know some of the other staff folks tank on these kinds of things. The secret is to find your own comfort level with certain staffers and not look at us as having one unified vote by blending in the opinion of many staff people into only one opinion.

 
David Yudkin said:
Joe T said:
The problem I have with the articles is that they have 30-40 players on each list. I cut it off at those with 4+ votes to make it meaningful. Sometimes FBG has players on both lists as both undervalued and overvalued.

How can this be helpful to a reader/subscriber?

Wouldn't it be far and away more helpful to take just 5-10 undervalued guys and say here are the most undervalued players and here's why.

Then do the same thing for overvalued... no more than 10.

Listing 40 guys that may be overvalued in some random vote approach seems haphazard and meaningless imho. And I think the results prove that out.
Click to expand...
The issue here is similar to that with the player rankings. As AN AVERAGE, the net reult probably won't help people. But looking at particular staff contributors and seeing why they ranked players the way they did will likely help people. I think over time, readers/subscribers will follow the opinions of certain contributors and pay less attention to others.Everyone knows I rule at the over/under articles and my picks NEVER fail. :wink: I won't call out any of my brothers and sisters here, but we all know some of the other staff folks tank on these kinds of things. The secret is to find your own comfort level with certain staffers and not look at us as having one unified vote by blending in the opinion of many staff people into only one opinion.
Click to expand...
David,What you are saying makes some sense for subscribers to the site, but makes no sense in terms of a magazine article like the one referenced in the original post. There is no way to identify or recognize who voted for whom. All we are left with is a 40+ name list of players that might be overvalued.

I don't want to be offensive, in fact what I'd like to see is value add, but I will stand by the opinion that shortening the list of over valued/under valued players would be tremendously more helpful in this article format.

Thanks,

Joe T

 
I think you get better results to ask simply:

What 5 players MUST be on all of your teams?

What 5 players will you avoid?

 
Stewy said:
Spin said:
All of the finishes were from my league, 1pprUnder Valued article12 VotesDavid Garrard ADPQB20 - Finished QB 128 VotesCarson Palmer ADPQB13 - Finished QB187 VotesKnowshon Mareno ADP RB27 - Finished RB216 VotesLarry Johnson ADP RB25 - Finished RB55Donovan McNabb ADP QB8 - Finished QB 10Chad Ochocinco ADP WR23 - Finished WR15Donnie Avery ADP WR32 - Finished WR 50Greg Olsen ADP TE8 - Finished TE 11Matt Hasselbeck ADP QB16 - Finished QB21 Jeremy Shockey ADP TE15 - Finished TE 175 VotesJericho Cotchery ADP WR30 - Finished WR32Donald Driver ADP WR35 - Finished WR20Tory Holt ADP WR37 - Finished WR59Dustin Keller ADP TE10 - Finished TE194 VotesLadanian Tomlinson ADP RB11- Finished RB26Clinton Portis ADP RB13 - Finished RB58, Pierre Thomas ADP RB22 - Finished RB19Chris Wells ADP RB29 - Finished RB38Matt Schaub ADP QB11 - Finished QB3Bernard Berrian ADP WR28 - Finished WR 49Trent Edwards ADP QB18 - Finished QB33Kyle Orton ADP QB19 - Finished QB15Zach Miller ADP TE12 - Finished TE10Just a quick glance seems they were about 50% on hits/misses from this article.
Click to expand...
If by "about 50%" you mean exactly 34.7%, then yea.
Click to expand...
I'd have to give it some thought to even decide what exactly 34.7% means in terms of anything useful.By that I mean, is it good or bad? What kind of correct hit rate should we expect in the 4+ votes crowd which means that 19% of staffers thought those players were undervalued while 81% of staffers thought they were correctly valued or were overvalued? What kind of hit rate should we expect when it was 57% of staffers (12 out of 21) that thought the player was undervalued?I seriously don't know. And I don't think I care enough to spend the time thinking enough to reach an answer I feel comfortable with. I use something like this as a chance to vet my own beliefs about players... see where someone else might disagree or agree with me, and put my opinion to the test.
 
Joe T said:
David Yudkin said:
Joe T said:
The problem I have with the articles is that they have 30-40 players on each list. I cut it off at those with 4+ votes to make it meaningful. Sometimes FBG has players on both lists as both undervalued and overvalued.

How can this be helpful to a reader/subscriber?

Wouldn't it be far and away more helpful to take just 5-10 undervalued guys and say here are the most undervalued players and here's why.

Then do the same thing for overvalued... no more than 10.

Listing 40 guys that may be overvalued in some random vote approach seems haphazard and meaningless imho. And I think the results prove that out.
Click to expand...
The issue here is similar to that with the player rankings. As AN AVERAGE, the net reult probably won't help people. But looking at particular staff contributors and seeing why they ranked players the way they did will likely help people. I think over time, readers/subscribers will follow the opinions of certain contributors and pay less attention to others.Everyone knows I rule at the over/under articles and my picks NEVER fail. :wink: I won't call out any of my brothers and sisters here, but we all know some of the other staff folks tank on these kinds of things. The secret is to find your own comfort level with certain staffers and not look at us as having one unified vote by blending in the opinion of many staff people into only one opinion.
Click to expand...
David,What you are saying makes some sense for subscribers to the site, but makes no sense in terms of a magazine article like the one referenced in the original post. There is no way to identify or recognize who voted for whom. All we are left with is a 40+ name list of players that might be overvalued.

I don't want to be offensive, in fact what I'd like to see is value add, but I will stand by the opinion that shortening the list of over valued/under valued players would be tremendously more helpful in this article format.

Thanks,

Joe T
Click to expand...
You can read comments from the various staffers on each player on the web site, so readers can pick and chose comments to read. I see that you referenced the magazine, and without descriptions I agree it's not as useful.
 
GregR said:
I'd have to give it some thought to even decide what exactly 34.7% means in terms of anything useful.By that I mean, is it good or bad? What kind of correct hit rate should we expect in the 4+ votes crowd which means that 19% of staffers thought those players were undervalued while 81% of staffers thought they were correctly valued or were overvalued? What kind of hit rate should we expect when it was 57% of staffers (12 out of 21) that thought the player was undervalued?
Click to expand...
Any hit rate below 50% is worse than random guessing. It's a binary option, overvalued/undervalued or not.
 
Joe T said:
Under Valued article

12 Votes

David Garrard

8 Votes

Carson Palmer

7 Votes

Knowshon Mareno

6 Votes

Larry Johnson

Donovan McNabb

Chad Ochocinco

Donnie Avery

Greg Olsen

Matt Hasselbeck

Jeremy Shockey

5 Votes

Jericho Cotchery

Donald Driver

Tory Holt

Dustin Keller

4 Votes

Ladanian Tomlinson

Clinton Portis

Pierre Thomas

Chris Wells

Matt Schaub

Bernard Berrian

Trent Edwards

Kyle Orton

Zach Miller
Click to expand...
You could cherry pick a team from this list after the fact and still have a hard time putting together a playoff team. Turned out those guys were almost all correctly valued.
 
David Yudkin said:
I can't speak for anyone else and I don't want to make excuses, but we get assigned and have to turn these in months before the seasons starts. Clearly having more insight around opening day would be helpful in these types of exercises. And if you pick a player that spent anytime injured as undervalued, that guy is DOA from that point on.But here's how I did . . .Brett Favre 25 actual 3 = + (only one that picked him)Matt Hasselbeck 16 actual 20 = -Kyle Orton 17 actual 16 = +Philip Rivers 5 actual 7 = +Matt Ryan 9 actual 19 = +Tony Romo 7 actual 6 = -Jay Cutler 10 actual 13 = +Frank Gore 9 actual 5 = + (only one that picked him)Cedric Benson 31 actual 16 = +Clinton Portis 14 actual 53 = -Sammy Morris 55 actual 58 = -Chris Johnson 5 actual 1 = -Brian Westbrook 9 actual 61 = + (only one that picked him)Derrick Ward 26 actual 50 = +Tim Hightower 40 actual 22 = -Randy Moss 4 actual 2 = + (only one that picked him)Donnie Avery 32 actual 47 = -Donald Driver 36 actual 18 = +Derrick Mason 39 actual 17 = + (only one to pick him and he was retired)Roy Williams 16 actual 37 = +Lee Evans 24 actual 35 = +Marques Colston 10 actual 13 = +Jeremy Macklin 44 actual 40 = -Michael Crabtree 43 actual 64 = +Steve Breaston 38 actual 46 = +Zack Miller 11 actual 12 = -John Carlson 9 actual 11 = -Tony Gonzalez 3 actual 5 = +I count 18 + and 10 - but five of the minuses were off by a couple spots. I'm guessing that overall is a decent outcome . . .
Click to expand...
To be fair, a few of the pluses were only good by a couple of spots, too. I'd say anything within a spot or two is basically even. But the ones with the biggest deviation were in your favor.
 
Joe T said:
David Yudkin said:
Joe T said:
The problem I have with the articles is that they have 30-40 players on each list. I cut it off at those with 4+ votes to make it meaningful. Sometimes FBG has players on both lists as both undervalued and overvalued.

How can this be helpful to a reader/subscriber?

Wouldn't it be far and away more helpful to take just 5-10 undervalued guys and say here are the most undervalued players and here's why.

Then do the same thing for overvalued... no more than 10.

Listing 40 guys that may be overvalued in some random vote approach seems haphazard and meaningless imho. And I think the results prove that out.
Click to expand...
The issue here is similar to that with the player rankings. As AN AVERAGE, the net reult probably won't help people. But looking at particular staff contributors and seeing why they ranked players the way they did will likely help people. I think over time, readers/subscribers will follow the opinions of certain contributors and pay less attention to others.Everyone knows I rule at the over/under articles and my picks NEVER fail. :wink: I won't call out any of my brothers and sisters here, but we all know some of the other staff folks tank on these kinds of things. The secret is to find your own comfort level with certain staffers and not look at us as having one unified vote by blending in the opinion of many staff people into only one opinion.
Click to expand...
David,What you are saying makes some sense for subscribers to the site, but makes no sense in terms of a magazine article like the one referenced in the original post. There is no way to identify or recognize who voted for whom. All we are left with is a 40+ name list of players that might be overvalued.

I don't want to be offensive, in fact what I'd like to see is value add, but I will stand by the opinion that shortening the list of over valued/under valued players would be tremendously more helpful in this article format.

Thanks,

Joe T
Click to expand...
While you weren't addressing me directly, you can read the article and see who voted for whom:Value Players

Overvalued Players

I find it good to go back and look at this sort of thing to see if I was way off or spot on and then learn from it.

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
David Yudkin said:
I can't speak for anyone else and I don't want to make excuses, but we get assigned and have to turn these in months before the seasons starts. Clearly having more insight around opening day would be helpful in these types of exercises. And if you pick a player that spent anytime injured as undervalued, that guy is DOA from that point on.But here's how I did . . .Brett Favre 25 actual 3 = + (only one that picked him)Matt Hasselbeck 16 actual 20 = -Kyle Orton 17 actual 16 = +Philip Rivers 5 actual 7 = +Matt Ryan 9 actual 19 = +Tony Romo 7 actual 6 = -Jay Cutler 10 actual 13 = +Frank Gore 9 actual 5 = + (only one that picked him)Cedric Benson 31 actual 16 = +Clinton Portis 14 actual 53 = -Sammy Morris 55 actual 58 = -Chris Johnson 5 actual 1 = -Brian Westbrook 9 actual 61 = + (only one that picked him)Derrick Ward 26 actual 50 = +Tim Hightower 40 actual 22 = -Randy Moss 4 actual 2 = + (only one that picked him)Donnie Avery 32 actual 47 = -Donald Driver 36 actual 18 = +Derrick Mason 39 actual 17 = + (only one to pick him and he was retired)Roy Williams 16 actual 37 = +Lee Evans 24 actual 35 = +Marques Colston 10 actual 13 = +Jeremy Macklin 44 actual 40 = -Michael Crabtree 43 actual 64 = +Steve Breaston 38 actual 46 = +Zack Miller 11 actual 12 = -John Carlson 9 actual 11 = -Tony Gonzalez 3 actual 5 = +I count 18 + and 10 - but five of the minuses were off by a couple spots. I'm guessing that overall is a decent outcome . . .
Click to expand...
To be fair, a few of the pluses were only good by a couple of spots, too. I'd say anything within a spot or two is basically even. But the ones with the biggest deviation were in your favor.
Click to expand...
I was thinking the same thing when I saw even the general list. I mean if you drafted McNabb as QB8 and he winds QB10 while missing a couple of games isn't that almost exactly what one expected from that guy.
 
People consistently misunderstand how to evaluate these lists...my lists are incorrectly evaluated every year.

The evaluation of these lists is not as simple as most believe.

 
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LHUCKS said:
People consistently misunderstand how to evaluate these lists...my lists are incorrectly evaluated every year.The evaluation of these lists is not as simple as most believe.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: The correct way to evaluate this stuff is to bump the few good calls and chest thump while letting the bad calls go unnoticed. If for some reason you get called out on claiming Jake Delhomme was undervalued, be sure to point out that you were actually referring to your start 5 QB league that gives +4 pts per INT.
 
Stewy said:
Spin said:
All of the finishes were from my league, 1pprUnder Valued article12 VotesDavid Garrard ADPQB20 - Finished QB 128 VotesCarson Palmer ADPQB13 - Finished QB187 VotesKnowshon Mareno ADP RB27 - Finished RB216 VotesLarry Johnson ADP RB25 - Finished RB55Donovan McNabb ADP QB8 - Finished QB 10Chad Ochocinco ADP WR23 - Finished WR15Donnie Avery ADP WR32 - Finished WR 50Greg Olsen ADP TE8 - Finished TE 11Matt Hasselbeck ADP QB16 - Finished QB21 Jeremy Shockey ADP TE15 - Finished TE 175 VotesJericho Cotchery ADP WR30 - Finished WR32Donald Driver ADP WR35 - Finished WR20Tory Holt ADP WR37 - Finished WR59Dustin Keller ADP TE10 - Finished TE194 VotesLadanian Tomlinson ADP RB11- Finished RB26Clinton Portis ADP RB13 - Finished RB58, Pierre Thomas ADP RB22 - Finished RB19Chris Wells ADP RB29 - Finished RB38Matt Schaub ADP QB11 - Finished QB3Bernard Berrian ADP WR28 - Finished WR 49Trent Edwards ADP QB18 - Finished QB33Kyle Orton ADP QB19 - Finished QB15Zach Miller ADP TE12 - Finished TE10Just a quick glance seems they were about 50% on hits/misses from this article.
Click to expand...
If by "about 50%" you mean exactly 34.7%, then yea.
Click to expand...
Meh, when I was glancing through it, I threw a few out, Like for example I don't count Cotchery as a miss, he was lower than his ADP by 2, with essentially missing 3 games due to injury.
 
One thing that needs to be taken into account is injuries. PPG is a better way to look at these rankings as you can always go to your bench or the waiver wire for some fill in points.

 
CalBear said:
GregR said:
I'd have to give it some thought to even decide what exactly 34.7% means in terms of anything useful.By that I mean, is it good or bad? What kind of correct hit rate should we expect in the 4+ votes crowd which means that 19% of staffers thought those players were undervalued while 81% of staffers thought they were correctly valued or were overvalued? What kind of hit rate should we expect when it was 57% of staffers (12 out of 21) that thought the player was undervalued?
Click to expand...
Any hit rate below 50% is worse than random guessing. It's a binary option, overvalued/undervalued or not.
Click to expand...
If someone starts as QB8, he's got 7 spots ahead of him he could end up in, and 24 below him (counting just NFL starters). If his placement were truly random you would expect him to underperform about 2/3 of the time and overperform 1/3 of the time.But you're still disregarding that for the 4+ vote players... 80% of the staffers felt that the player was not undervalued. So if it turns out that less than 50% of the players in that group outperformed their position, then the 80% of the staffers were right, weren't they?This is what I'm talking about that it isn't as easy as throwing a hit percentage out of there and thinking it should be some high number.
 
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Looking back, I had (highlighting the ones that were discerningly one way or other):

Undervalued:

Garrard (hit)

Moreno (hit)

Olsen

Driver (hit)

Orton (hit)

Benson (big hit)

Z Miller

Coles (big miss)

D Ward (big miss)

Hester

Walter (big miss, but injured)

Flacco

Overvalued:

Chris Johnson (big miss)

Warner (hit adp of qb5)

Scheffler (big hit)

Addai (big miss)

Roy Williams (big hit)

Matt Ryan (big hit)

Lee Evans (big hit)

Houshmandzadeh (big hit)

Holmes

R Bush (big hit)

Shockey (hit)

I missed big on some like Chris Johnson, Joseph Addai, Laveranues Coles, and Derrick Ward. I missed more than I would like, but am ok with the results. Flacco, Miller, Olsen, Hester, and Holmes were close enough that a drafter would not be unhappy with the results but were not hits, either.

 
Limp Ditka said:
LHUCKS said:
People consistently misunderstand how to evaluate these lists...my lists are incorrectly evaluated every year.The evaluation of these lists is not as simple as most believe.
Click to expand...
Please feel free to explain how to then.
Click to expand...
It's pretty simple. The strategy is to take LHUCKS' lists and do the opposite. Therefore, as long as he keeps up his impeccable failure rate, he's doing a great job. :hifive:
 
GregR said:
CalBear said:
GregR said:
I'd have to give it some thought to even decide what exactly 34.7% means in terms of anything useful.By that I mean, is it good or bad? What kind of correct hit rate should we expect in the 4+ votes crowd which means that 19% of staffers thought those players were undervalued while 81% of staffers thought they were correctly valued or were overvalued? What kind of hit rate should we expect when it was 57% of staffers (12 out of 21) that thought the player was undervalued?
Click to expand...
Any hit rate below 50% is worse than random guessing. It's a binary option, overvalued/undervalued or not.
Click to expand...
If someone starts as QB8, he's got 7 spots ahead of him he could end up in, and 24 below him (counting just NFL starters). If his placement were truly random you would expect him to underperform about 2/3 of the time and overperform 1/3 of the time.But you're still disregarding that for the 4+ vote players... 80% of the staffers felt that the player was not undervalued. So if it turns out that less than 50% of the players in that group outperformed their position, then the 80% of the staffers were right, weren't they?This is what I'm talking about that it isn't as easy as throwing a hit percentage out of there and thinking it should be some high number.
Click to expand...
It's fairly simple; if you took the "Undervalued" list and changed the title at the top to "Overvalued," it would have been more accurate. Therefore the list was worse than useless.It is probably the case that the staff disagreed with the list, in some sense; after all, the staff as a whole creates the average ranking, so departures from the average ranking are departures from what the staff as a whole believes. But the follow-through is that the average rankings were better than the over/under valued list.
 
I don't want to try to make a formula for scoring how well anyone did but do keep in mind that a miss by 2-3 slots for someone ranked at #2 ADP is much more damaging than missing by 2-3 slots on a player with a #22 ADP.

It is good to keep all the data and understand that if a player is an undervalue on 3 lists and an over value on 5 lists it simply means that the feelings on this player is very volitile and he is simply viewed by the concenus as a high risk/high reward type of player.

It is funny because when I first looked at this list I thought the group did poorly but after looking closer that is not the case. I think the overvalued list is more valuable as the group did pretty well in identifying the names to avoid which to me is more importany anyway.

 
Shouldn't players like Ray Rice and Thomas Jones be considered misses too? I mean if players who were ignored also greatly onder or over performed their ADP be counted? If one wants to measure this, any player who was within say four spots (depending on posotion to some extent) of their ADP should be a miss. They pretty much played to their ADP. Any ingnored player who was + or - 8 should be a miss too.

It's pretty difficult to make player forecats like this. While Garrard did outperform his ADP, if he was your primary starter this year, bad for you, because he was plain awful on the road. If Breaston wasn't on your over valued list, he should be a miss too.

If all players that either under or over performed their ADP by a fair margin are included (named or not) as well as those who came close to their ADP and are counted as misses, the hit rate of 30% would be really good. Not so easy to do.

 
CalBear said:
GregR said:
CalBear said:
GregR said:
I'd have to give it some thought to even decide what exactly 34.7% means in terms of anything useful.By that I mean, is it good or bad? What kind of correct hit rate should we expect in the 4+ votes crowd which means that 19% of staffers thought those players were undervalued while 81% of staffers thought they were correctly valued or were overvalued? What kind of hit rate should we expect when it was 57% of staffers (12 out of 21) that thought the player was undervalued?
Click to expand...
Any hit rate below 50% is worse than random guessing. It's a binary option, overvalued/undervalued or not.
Click to expand...
If someone starts as QB8, he's got 7 spots ahead of him he could end up in, and 24 below him (counting just NFL starters). If his placement were truly random you would expect him to underperform about 2/3 of the time and overperform 1/3 of the time.But you're still disregarding that for the 4+ vote players... 80% of the staffers felt that the player was not undervalued. So if it turns out that less than 50% of the players in that group outperformed their position, then the 80% of the staffers were right, weren't they?This is what I'm talking about that it isn't as easy as throwing a hit percentage out of there and thinking it should be some high number.
Click to expand...
It's fairly simple; if you took the "Undervalued" list and changed the title at the top to "Overvalued," it would have been more accurate. Therefore the list was worse than useless.It is probably the case that the staff disagreed with the list, in some sense; after all, the staff as a whole creates the average ranking, so departures from the average ranking are departures from what the staff as a whole believes. But the follow-through is that the average rankings were better than the over/under valued list.
Click to expand...
It wasn't a list of players that the majority of staff felt was undervalued, which is how you're treating it. Such a list would only have 1 player on it, David Garrard.
 
Warhogs said:
I don't want to try to make a formula for scoring how well anyone did but do keep in mind that a miss by 2-3 slots for someone ranked at #2 ADP is much more damaging than missing by 2-3 slots on a player with a #22 ADP.
Click to expand...
Another step in the right direction...this is not a linear analysis.One day you silly kids will get there.
 
LHUCKS said:
Warhogs said:
I don't want to try to make a formula for scoring how well anyone did but do keep in mind that a miss by 2-3 slots for someone ranked at #2 ADP is much more damaging than missing by 2-3 slots on a player with a #22 ADP.
Click to expand...
Another step in the right direction...this is not a linear analysis.One day you silly kids will get there.
Click to expand...
Instead of agreeing with the suggestions of others, can you actually come up with a thought of your own?
 
Limp Ditka said:
LHUCKS said:
Warhogs said:
I don't want to try to make a formula for scoring how well anyone did but do keep in mind that a miss by 2-3 slots for someone ranked at #2 ADP is much more damaging than missing by 2-3 slots on a player with a #22 ADP.
Click to expand...
Another step in the right direction...this is not a linear analysis.One day you silly kids will get there.
Click to expand...
Instead of agreeing with the suggestions of others, can you actually come up with a thought of your own?
Click to expand...
Let's not make this thread about LHUCKS. I'm simply highlighting the reasonable thoughts in this thread to help steer the conversation...which is clearly needed.
 
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GregR said:
It wasn't a list of players that the majority of staff felt was undervalued, which is how you're treating it. Such a list would only have 1 player on it, David Garrard.
Click to expand...
I'm treating it as a list of overvalued or undervalued players, and that's where it fails. If you can swap the labels on the list and come up with a better result, the list is worse than random guessing.
 
LHUCKS said:
Limp Ditka said:
LHUCKS said:
Warhogs said:
I don't want to try to make a formula for scoring how well anyone did but do keep in mind that a miss by 2-3 slots for someone ranked at #2 ADP is much more damaging than missing by 2-3 slots on a player with a #22 ADP.
Click to expand...
Another step in the right direction...this is not a linear analysis.One day you silly kids will get there.
Click to expand...
Instead of agreeing with the suggestions of others, can you actually come up with a thought of your own?
Click to expand...
Let's not make this thread about LHUCKS. I'm simply highlighting the reasonable thoughts in this thread to help steer the conversation...which is clearly needed.
Click to expand...
You are actually pooping in a decent tread, just like you usually do.
 
LHUCKS said:
Limp Ditka said:
LHUCKS said:
Warhogs said:
I don't want to try to make a formula for scoring how well anyone did but do keep in mind that a miss by 2-3 slots for someone ranked at #2 ADP is much more damaging than missing by 2-3 slots on a player with a #22 ADP.
Click to expand...
Another step in the right direction...this is not a linear analysis.One day you silly kids will get there.
Click to expand...
Instead of agreeing with the suggestions of others, can you actually come up with a thought of your own?
Click to expand...
Let's not make this thread about LHUCKS. I'm simply highlighting the reasonable thoughts in this thread to help steer the conversation...which is clearly needed.
Click to expand...
Dude, if you have something of value to add, then do so. If you're unable to come up with an original thought on your own without someone else doing the heavy lifting, then stop Wozing up this thread.
 
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