David ---
Don't make me break out my regression tools....
Actually, to be honest, I didn't factor limited playing time. I pulled his stats from NFL.com and did a simple projection of 16 games, then took the average over the last 3 years. I could have made this more complex and accounted for the newness of the offense in 2005 and then looked at his improvements over the last few years in a regression study to be more exact, but I'm a slacker and didn't do it since I was doing more of this ==>
Even though he saw limited playing time in some of those games (granted), the bottom line is I don't think we can project 16 games out of Warner, whether due to injury or Leinart starting some of them. He has not played 16 games since 2001, so to say, he's going to be awesome and finish all 16 is overly optimistic. Before I get blasted for saying that... He was the starter in seasons 2001-2005 before he was demoted to Leinart for poor playing. Where Warner has started the season, he just hasn't finished.
So with that in mind and looking at what he did last year I think the projections of 3,650, 27 TDs, and 16 INT are reasonable. Additionally, the 16 games they would be playing include NYJ, BUF, DAL, CAR, SEA, NYG, PHI, STL x 2, SF x 2, MIA, WAS, MIN and NE in weeks 1 through 16. While some guys are stat pushers, there's a lot of games that will be challenging.
With the projections I have, he's right around QB7-QB8, which seems to be right by me, especially since I think the ARI schedule is tougher this year than last year. sooooo.... I am sticking with 3,650 / 27 TDs and 16 INT...