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Project Kurt Warner's numbers if he is the starter (1 Viewer)

Thumper

Footballguy
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds's

That would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.

 
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
If Warner is the starter I think he should be ranked higher than Derk Anderson.
 
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
If Warner is the starter I think he should be ranked higher than Derk Anderson.
:thumbup: I would put him at about QB7. Tough call between Warner & McNabb. If they both stay healthy they should put up similar #'s IMO.
 
He's a stud when healthy, but given his fragile state I would be shocked if he made it through a 16 game season. I'd rank him right below McNabb.

 
I took him in the 18th round of my draft last night after taking Leinart because I agree there starter, especially if its Warner, should have numbers.

Ill go something like 3800 yards, 25.5 TDs

 
When it comes to QB's I have 2 rules.

1. Take QB's late in the draft.

2. Take ONLY QB's that are garanteed to start and have no competotion, so they start unless injured.

That puts guys like Hasselback, Favre, Cutler, Eli on my target lists. If Warner stuggles, they will plug in Leinart in a heartbeat. No thanks.

 
When it comes to QB's I have 2 rules. 1. Take QB's late in the draft.2. Take ONLY QB's that are garanteed to start and have no competotion, so they start unless injured. That puts guys like Hasselback, Favre, Cutler, Eli on my target lists. If Warner stuggles, they will plug in Leinart in a heartbeat. No thanks.
Its not like Leinart wouldnt be on the WW though
 
When it comes to QB's I have 2 rules. 1. Take QB's late in the draft.2. Take ONLY QB's that are garanteed to start and have no competotion, so they start unless injured. That puts guys like Hasselback, Favre, Cutler, Eli on my target lists. If Warner stuggles, they will plug in Leinart in a heartbeat. No thanks.
Its not like Leinart wouldnt be on the WW though
In a related story, the moon is still in orbit around the earth....
 
When it comes to QB's I have 2 rules. 1. Take QB's late in the draft.2. Take ONLY QB's that are garanteed to start and have no competotion, so they start unless injured. That puts guys like Hasselback, Favre, Cutler, Eli on my target lists. If Warner stuggles, they will plug in Leinart in a heartbeat. No thanks.
Its not like Leinart wouldnt be on the WW though
In a related story, the moon is still in orbit around the earth....
Even if Leinart is on the waiver wire I wouldn't want him. He is a total bust.
 
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
I had him ranked in the Top 5 months ago . . . long before he was even looking like a starter.His last 8 games last year were:259/3211/2484/2169/2337/3233/3361/3300/3
 
David Yudkin said:
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
I had him ranked in the Top 5 months ago . . . long before he was even looking like a starter.His last 8 games last year were:259/3211/2484/2169/2337/3233/3361/3300/3
David, I couldn't agree more.
 
David Yudkin said:
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
I had him ranked in the Top 5 months ago . . . long before he was even looking like a starter.His last 8 games last year were:259/3211/2484/2169/2337/3233/3361/3300/3
David, I couldn't agree more.
bump
 
In Normal scoreing leagues last year Warner had over a 24 APG the games he started!

No other qb not named BRADY was even within 2 points a game to him!

Definatly top 5 material!

ROMO was 22, Peyton and Brees 20 APG to compare.

Warner was the second best qb last year discounting the games he subbed only!

I absolutly love having him in ALL my draftmaster leagues. His ceiling is the sky.

If he busts so be it. I didn;t draft him as my starter anyway!

 
Check out the player spotlight thread for Warner. Alot of people projected him for most of the season anyways, there's a ton of good stuff on him there. Just citing a good resource, please don't feel I'm trying to be negative about you starting this thread.

I projected him for:

266/419

3096 Yards

23 TDs

11 Ints

14 Rushes

16 Yards

1 TD

That's only projected for 12 games. If you prorate the projections...(I know, right?!)

355/559

4128 Yards

31 TDs

15 Ints

18 Rushes

21 Yards

1 TD

I think that's going to put him right on pace for QB5, very similar numbers to Carson Palmer for the season, IMO.

 
Just got Warner with my last (15th) round pick in a 10 team Yahoo league to back up Cutler. I love him this year, BTW totally agreeing with previous poster that Leinart is a total BUST. Ask Schlereth about Leinart. That's good enough for me.

 
A simple extrapolation of his stats last year says he would have ended with about 4500/36 had he played all 16 games. I would say, over 16 games, he could have anywhere from 3700/25 to 4300/35, most likely finishing closer to the later. Yes he does give up turnovers but he is an elite talent with two elite WRs, the stats will come.

So I will say...

Top 3 4211/34

Good thing I have him and Fitz

 
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David Yudkin said:
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
I had him ranked in the Top 5 months ago . . . long before he was even looking like a starter.His last 8 games last year were:259/3211/2484/2169/2337/3233/3361/3300/3
Not sure why everyone thinks he will struggle - look at those numbers in the exact same O last year. Everyone laughed when I took him as my starter in WSL2 - well HAHA!
 
David Yudkin said:
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
I had him ranked in the Top 5 months ago . . . long before he was even looking like a starter.His last 8 games last year were:259/3211/2484/2169/2337/3233/3361/3300/3
Not sure why everyone thinks he will struggle - look at those numbers in the exact same O last year. Everyone laughed when I took him as my starter in WSL2 - well HAHA!
For anyone who is curious as to the defenses he was going up against during that streak, I looked it up:259/3 vs. DET211/2 @ CIN484/2 vs. SF169/2 vs. CLE337/3 @ SEA233/3 @ NO361/3 vs. ATL300/3 vs. STL
 
David Yudkin said:
Assuming that K.Warner is given the ball from day one and he can stay healthy the entire season (his health is a bigger concern for me than him winning the job) I think Warner is good for at least 3,800 yds and 28tds'sThat would be good enough to land him a spot in the top 5 or 6 at qb.
I had him ranked in the Top 5 months ago . . . long before he was even looking like a starter.His last 8 games last year were:259/3211/2484/2169/2337/3233/3361/3300/3
Not sure why everyone thinks he will struggle - look at those numbers in the exact same O last year. Everyone laughed when I took him as my starter in WSL2 - well HAHA!
For anyone who is curious as to the defenses he was going up against during that streak, I looked it up:259/3 vs. DET211/2 @ CIN484/2 vs. SF169/2 vs. CLE337/3 @ SEA233/3 @ NO361/3 vs. ATL300/3 vs. STL
Fine. If you don't like his last 8 games, how about all the games where he effectively played a whole game since coming to Arizona. (That's a bit difficult to do because he's come in and out or relieved on several occasions). In any event, in the 23 games where he threw at least 25 passes, he's averaged 288.5 passing yards with 1.75 TD.Projecting that over a full season (which I never really recommend but in this case will make an exception), that works out to 4616 passing yards with 28 TD over a 16-game season.
 
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good point frankbot. I looked those defenses up at Football Outsiders and they ranked in pass defense 32, 28, 26, 19, 14, 27, 31, and 24 last season.

The good news is that those NFCW defenses will still be on the schedule this year though. None of those teams look any better on pass D.

 
Last 3 years with AZ:

2005 - 10 games - 2,713 passing, 11 TDs, 9 INT

2006 - 6 games - 1,377 passing, 6 TDs, 5 INT

2007 - 14 games - 3,417 passing, 27 TDs, 17 INT

Forecasted for 16 games and averaging leaves the following projections:

3,973 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INT

Now I don't think it's unreasonable to think 3,500 yards is his floor, his TDs somewhere in the mid 20s and his INTs in the mid 10s... If he plays 16 games.

My projection would be 3,650, 27 TDs, 16 INT

Why I am not as high as the average? Well, I expect him to miss 1 or 2 games.

 
Last 3 years with AZ:2005 - 10 games - 2,713 passing, 11 TDs, 9 INT2006 - 6 games - 1,377 passing, 6 TDs, 5 INT2007 - 14 games - 3,417 passing, 27 TDs, 17 INTForecasted for 16 games and averaging leaves the following projections:3,973 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTNow I don't think it's unreasonable to think 3,500 yards is his floor, his TDs somewhere in the mid 20s and his INTs in the mid 10s... If he plays 16 games.My projection would be 3,650, 27 TDs, 16 INTWhy I am not as high as the average? Well, I expect him to miss 1 or 2 games.
Here's the problem that at least I have with this . . .Of the 30 games you have down for Warner, he saw limited action in a number of them. So how do you factor that in to the numbers?
 
I agree that he should put up solid numbers, but the question now is where to take him. With the recent news, his ADP is obviously climbing, but by how much? I am curious to see where he slots in with the other quarterbacks. I would love to wait and snag him. I would guess he would fall to around the Cutler, Mcnabb, Anderson level right around QB 8-10. Thoughts on where his ADP might be from this point on?

 
David ---

Don't make me break out my regression tools.... :popcorn:

Actually, to be honest, I didn't factor limited playing time. I pulled his stats from NFL.com and did a simple projection of 16 games, then took the average over the last 3 years. I could have made this more complex and accounted for the newness of the offense in 2005 and then looked at his improvements over the last few years in a regression study to be more exact, but I'm a slacker and didn't do it since I was doing more of this ==> ;)

Even though he saw limited playing time in some of those games (granted), the bottom line is I don't think we can project 16 games out of Warner, whether due to injury or Leinart starting some of them. He has not played 16 games since 2001, so to say, he's going to be awesome and finish all 16 is overly optimistic. Before I get blasted for saying that... He was the starter in seasons 2001-2005 before he was demoted to Leinart for poor playing. Where Warner has started the season, he just hasn't finished.

So with that in mind and looking at what he did last year I think the projections of 3,650, 27 TDs, and 16 INT are reasonable. Additionally, the 16 games they would be playing include NYJ, BUF, DAL, CAR, SEA, NYG, PHI, STL x 2, SF x 2, MIA, WAS, MIN and NE in weeks 1 through 16. While some guys are stat pushers, there's a lot of games that will be challenging.

With the projections I have, he's right around QB7-QB8, which seems to be right by me, especially since I think the ARI schedule is tougher this year than last year. sooooo.... I am sticking with 3,650 / 27 TDs and 16 INT... :popcorn:

 
SuperJohn96 said:
So is he starting or not...wtf...
This was on CBS Sportsline today:Leinart still starting, for now

Kurt Warner, QB ARI

News: After ESPN reported that the Cardinals were going to name Kurt Warner as their starting quarterback, the Arizona Republic reports that head coach Ken Whisenhunt is still evaluating both passers, and that Leinart is still starting. Both Leinart and Warner took first-team snaps in practice Monday, which has been the case all summer. "Contrary to everything (reported), nothing has changed," Whisenhunt said on the team's official web site. "We have not made a decision. We have not named Kurt the starting quarterback. It's unfortunate it was out there. It's unfortunate Matt has to see those things. But I understand the quarterback is the focus and people are quick to make judgments. It's a process. You don't (make a decision) based on one play or one half. ... But it'd be incorrect of me to ignore the fact Matt didn't play well (at Oakland)."

 
How POed will the Arizona fans be if they choose Leinart over Warner? Why would they do this? Yeah they choose Leinart in the 1st round but look how many 1st rd busts there are....the list is endlist.

Win NOW....choose Warner.

 
Just saw on Mike and Mike that Warner had more TD passes in the 2nd half of the season than any other QB in the league (yes, more than Brady)....

and the Cardinals were 5-3 in those 8 games.

What the hell is wrong with these clowns? Is this really even a hard decision? Warner should have been named the starter immediately after last season ended. I don't care how much money you have wrapped up in Leinart, 1st round QBs bust about 50% of the time it seems...you still have to start the best player.

I don't know which makes me :lmao: more, this Arizona QB "controversy" or the Merriman playing with the possibility of ruining his career.

Unreal.

 
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I managed to get him at 11.02 last night in my 16 teamer after 22 QB's were off the board, I think I got pretty lucky there.

Where have people been targeting him in a 12 team league? I have one coming up next week. I am afraid I would miss out on him.

 
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So is he starting or not...wtf...
This was on CBS Sportsline today:Leinart still starting, for now

Kurt Warner, QB ARI

News: After ESPN reported that the Cardinals were going to name Kurt Warner as their starting quarterback, the Arizona Republic reports that head coach Ken Whisenhunt is still evaluating both passers, and that Leinart is still starting. Both Leinart and Warner took first-team snaps in practice Monday, which has been the case all summer. "Contrary to everything (reported), nothing has changed," Whisenhunt said on the team's official web site. "We have not made a decision. We have not named Kurt the starting quarterback. It's unfortunate it was out there. It's unfortunate Matt has to see those things. But I understand the quarterback is the focus and people are quick to make judgments. It's a process. You don't (make a decision) based on one play or one half. ... But it'd be incorrect of me to ignore the fact Matt didn't play well (at Oakland)."
Sounds like Leinart is hanging on by a string that is likely to break with more opportunity unless something miraculous happens to Leinart. My strategy will be to either draft Warner extremely late or to to wait for the guy who drafts him to drop him after he realizes that Leinart is starting. I might even try to work a trade right after the draft, after the other owners tell the Warner owner that Leinart is the starter.

 
So is he starting or not...wtf...
This was on CBS Sportsline today:Leinart still starting, for now

Kurt Warner, QB ARI

News: After ESPN reported that the Cardinals were going to name Kurt Warner as their starting quarterback, the Arizona Republic reports that head coach Ken Whisenhunt is still evaluating both passers, and that Leinart is still starting. Both Leinart and Warner took first-team snaps in practice Monday, which has been the case all summer. "Contrary to everything (reported), nothing has changed," Whisenhunt said on the team's official web site. "We have not made a decision. We have not named Kurt the starting quarterback. It's unfortunate it was out there. It's unfortunate Matt has to see those things. But I understand the quarterback is the focus and people are quick to make judgments. It's a process. You don't (make a decision) based on one play or one half. ... But it'd be incorrect of me to ignore the fact Matt didn't play well (at Oakland)."
Sounds like Leinart is hanging on by a string that is likely to break with more opportunity unless something miraculous happens to Leinart. My strategy will be to either draft Warner extremely late or to to wait for the guy who drafts him to drop him after he realizes that Leinart is starting. I might even try to work a trade right after the draft, after the other owners tell the Warner owner that Leinart is the starter.
Dude, just draft him.
 
So is he starting or not...wtf...
This was on CBS Sportsline today:Leinart still starting, for now

Kurt Warner, QB ARI

News: After ESPN reported that the Cardinals were going to name Kurt Warner as their starting quarterback, the Arizona Republic reports that head coach Ken Whisenhunt is still evaluating both passers, and that Leinart is still starting. Both Leinart and Warner took first-team snaps in practice Monday, which has been the case all summer. "Contrary to everything (reported), nothing has changed," Whisenhunt said on the team's official web site. "We have not made a decision. We have not named Kurt the starting quarterback. It's unfortunate it was out there. It's unfortunate Matt has to see those things. But I understand the quarterback is the focus and people are quick to make judgments. It's a process. You don't (make a decision) based on one play or one half. ... But it'd be incorrect of me to ignore the fact Matt didn't play well (at Oakland)."
Sounds like Leinart is hanging on by a string that is likely to break with more opportunity unless something miraculous happens to Leinart. My strategy will be to either draft Warner extremely late or to to wait for the guy who drafts him to drop him after he realizes that Leinart is starting. I might even try to work a trade right after the draft, after the other owners tell the Warner owner that Leinart is the starter.
Dude, just draft him.
Why do something simple when you can completely complicate it and mess it up?That said, how come I can't find the emoticon kicking the ball when I need it?

 
BUMP now that he has been named the started341/5523974 yards30 tds18 ints 24 rushes for 18 yards and 0 tds.Good for QB5 in my scoring system.
Right along the lines of what I project. I also rank him at QB5 (even though IMO you can get him at the end of the QB1's even with today's news). I would certainly get a solid backup plan. I believe in 6 TD leagues, Warner was something like the 5th best overall player over the second half last year.
 
BUMP now that he has been named the started341/5523974 yards30 tds18 ints 24 rushes for 18 yards and 0 tds.Good for QB5 in my scoring system.
Right along the lines of what I project. I also rank him at QB5 (even though IMO you can get him at the end of the QB1's even with today's news). I would certainly get a solid backup plan. I believe in 6 TD leagues, Warner was something like the 5th best overall player over the second half last year.
My league awards 6pt TDs as well. I drafted today and took Garrard in the 7th round and when I went to get a late backup in the 12th round, I didn't expect Warner to be there (hadn't heard he was starting and took him strictly on upside). Problem is bothe QBs have same bye in week 7. I guess I'll have to figure something out by then but I'm happy I got him that late.
 
http://footballguys.com/08stuart_rearview_qb.php

Warner played 11.7 adjusted games last year. He averaged 26.1 FP/adjusted game last year, 3rd most in the league. However, he did face a really easy schedule. If you adjust his numbers for strength of schedule, he averaged 24.5 adjFP/adjG last year. That puts him 5th in adjusted FP (for SOS) per adjusted game, behind Brady, Romo, Manning and Garrard.

 
Took him as my QB #2 behind Favre in my 16-team draft tonight and glad I did. He might even get the nod for me week 1.

I would rank him about QB #9 overall and if healthy, should toss 26-30 TDs.

 
Took him as my QB #2 behind Favre in my 16-team draft tonight and glad I did. He might even get the nod for me week 1. I would rank him about QB #9 overall and if healthy, should toss 26-30 TDs.
I'd flip flop those two and say Favre is your QB2 and Warner is your QB1. I'd be absolutely shocked if, barring injury, Favre outproduces Warner. And I don't really think it will be close.
 
CBS Sportsline Aug 26

"Contrary to everything (reported), nothing has changed," Whisenhunt said on the team's official web site. "We have not made a decision. We have not named Kurt the starting quarterback.
Coach, get a clue and start Warner already!!!!
Sounds like he listened to you cha-ching...
Source: Bob Baum, AP

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said Saturday that Kurt Warner would be the starter over Matt Leinart when Arizona opens its season Sept. 7 at San Francisco.
 
I agree that he should put up solid numbers, but the question now is where to take him. With the recent news, his ADP is obviously climbing, but by how much? I am curious to see where he slots in with the other quarterbacks. I would love to wait and snag him. I would guess he would fall to around the Cutler, Mcnabb, Anderson level right around QB 8-10. Thoughts on where his ADP might be from this point on?
I just drafted him as my QB1 at 7.3 in a 14-team PPR. We award 6 pts/TD, .3 pts/completion, and a point/25 yards passing, and based on our scoring system, he was the 10-ranked QB last season.I had targeted Cutler, but he went at 7.1, so I went ahead and pulled the trigger. He was the 12th QB taken.
 

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