WHAT IS THE BEST STRATEGY IN PREPARING FOR THE DRAFT (1 Viewer)

I've been playing in the same league for about 4 years, and every year I look for the best way to prepare myself for the draft. It is a big deal in our league, as I'm sure it is for everyone else's league in which the owners get together, talk trash, eat wings, drink beer, and then pretend like they are masters of the fantasy football world.

I've read a lot about different strategies, but I'm wondering if there a better way to prepare. Currently I base a lot of my decision on projections, before I discovered FBG (2009) I was using CBS and ESPN projections averaged out, followed by a SOS rating by position (toolbox) as a deciding vote between players. I've used this strategy for the past 2 years and have luckly made the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons. I've been proud of my drafts the last 3 years, but I'm tired of 2nd place.

Beyond just incorporating projections I feel that the SOS is the most important aspect of how I draft, because a stud player is going to do better vs the Lions than they will against the Ravens. So drafting the most quality players with weak defensive opponents should result in my fantasy success. Often times this burned me last year as I had Romo and Witten (drafted for projection over SOS) and they killed me due to injuries and 2nd half schedule. Obviously SOS is not a sure thing because Brees had one of the worst passing schedules and he was a Super Stud last year. But I wonder if SOS has a bigger effect on certain positions like RB than say QB and WR.

This is my dilemma, and Jason Wood has told me to use reverse SOS, which of course I have no idea what he's talking about.

Nonetheless I was hoping to get a discussion on how and what everyone does to prepare for their draft. How do you organize yourself and what aspects tip your scale more than others. Do you use projections, or just expert ranking? Do you have a formula that has helped you to success or is it really just a gamble with every pick you call out. I'm excited about FBG's ranking access, and I'm curious about just trusting them as they have obviously put a lot of thought into how they are ranked.

Thoughts?

In general I try to read as much about every player on every team that I can...that includes coaching changes/schemes, Oline movements, significant defensive player movements, etc.

-I basically take all that information and look for situations that I think may change and target players from those teams. Last year I thought that Houston was an underrated passing team and looked to add Schaub/Daniels wherever I could. This year Cincy players are looking a little cheap to me (Benson/Palmer) so far but that may change...

-I look for large additions (or losses) along the offensive lines as they are often an underated and overlooked key to an offenses success.

-I use cheatsheets but only as a guide as I have a handful of players that I target at each position and similarly a number of players/situations that I want no part of.

-I look at SOS but only to a small extent since things change so much each year. I use SOS more mid-season when you get a better feel for the teams and use it to target particular players with favorable schedules down the stretch.

-I never go into a draft with a particular plan like I want to grab a RB in rd 1, a WR in rd 2, etc. I just let it happen see who falls to me and try to anticipate who I can let drop for another round or so.

-This site is a TREMENDOUS resource, get the training camp news - seeing who's turning heads, reading some of the numerous strategy articles that the site puts out on QBBC, TEBC, Defense by committee, etc. which are great and I use them each year and the message board and the opinions you get on here are 2nd to none.

Once you have that foundation of information the draft is really a snap....

Adebisi said:

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This is so funny to you why? Guy comes in here, pretty new to FBG, and he is given the "laughing at you, not with you" smilie. Way to make him want to post more in the future.You don't have anything to add or anything good to say, just don't post.:finger:

Couch Potato said:

Adebisi said:

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This is so funny to you why? Guy comes in here, pretty new to FBG, and he is made fun of. Way to make him want to post more in the future.You don't have anything to add or anything good to say, just don't post.:finger:

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well he is a pat fan.Welcome aboard Jasonb. You have come to the right place

1. Bring lots of FF magazines which come out in early July and strew them around the place.

2. Have lots of booze up front, and delay the draft so that half of the drafters are smashed.

3. Print out some sheet purportedly coming from the training camps, which outlines the latest health and status of players.

4. Make sure that the players you want to draft are listed as having hammy problems, turf toe, or high ankle sprain.

5. Sit back and enjoy yourself.

You want the real answer? Luck.

You've made the SB 2 years in a row. Losing both of those singular games had nothing to do with skill or lack thereof.

I've been doing it so long, it's become a bit of a zen thing. Knowing ADP, how specific leaguemates draft, and players you think are better than their rankings is pretty much all you need. I can look at the FBG ADP (blend of six others) for an hour, and walk into a draft confident. Of course, this is only the case because I read about the NFL all year and have educated opinions on just about every player.

mastering the keyboard functions. As if you can't do that THEN YOU WILL NEVER WIN AT FF AS YU WILL SCERW UP INPUTTING STUFF.

Best advice for draft preparation = Read as much from the FBG's staff and Shark Pool as possible. I've never found a resource like this.

I usually go into the draft with rankings, projections, SOS, etc. but the draft never plays out like I expect, and I'm forced to recall things like "player X vs. player Y" discussions in the Shark Pool, and it always works to my advantage. The people who post on this site are very analytical and you will learn a lot from reading their posts

Couch Potato said:

Adebisi said:

Click to expand...

This is so funny to you why? Guy comes in here, pretty new to FBG, and he is given the "laughing at you, not with you" smilie. Way to make him want to post more in the future.You don't have anything to add or anything good to say, just don't post.:finger:

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Jasonb said:

Thoughts?

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No strategy is foolproof. And there's no one thing that's guaranteed to take you from No. 2 to No. 1. Too much luck is involved.The longer I've played, the less "strategy" I've use for my drafts. I essentially just take Dodds' projections, create buckets, compare the ADPs and pick the guys I like. Last year it netted me a title, a runner up and a playoff appearance in my three redraft leagues.

(for big leagues)

Don't waste a ton of time on your first two picks.

(Do your homework, but don't obsess as much as some other owners).

Don't waste anytime obsessing on Rb/wr/wr vs rb/wr/rb.

(be prepared to take advantage of what the draft gives you).

Instead, pay attention to the later rounds. Know who you want and why in the last half of the draft.

(My main league starts 18, with 16 on the bench (idp), and by midway through the draft a lot of owners are guessing).

Lots of good advice here. I agree there's a bit of 'zen' involved, there's a lot to be said about knowing your LeagueMates, along with plenty of luck and Karma, which are things folks have the power to create. I do the 'buckets' thing too, in terms of how I group similar Players both within and between Posiitons...

...but from a more 'nuts and bolts' perspective, there are some basics that make me a more efficient Drafter, so I can use my time on the clock much more efficiently.

1. Communicate with your LeagueMates as early and as often as you can, so there's some common ground and familiarity there between you long before potential pre-Season and in-Season Trade Talks start. It's psychological, but folks are probably more willing to negotiate and pull triggers if they know you better than just some random Owner that calls out of the blue in mid-Season with a Trade Offer. Communication is the key, and you never know when a casual conversation about cars or music can lead to a comfortability level that gets Deals done more quickly and efficiently.

2. Memorize the Bye Weeks to the point where when you think of a Player, he enters your mind as: MJD/7. After the Draft, chart each Teams Roster by Bye Week and immediately try to capitalize by Trading with Owners who ignored this, and have a glut of Players at a given Position with Bye Week conflicts. Jumping on this right away can yield rewards.

3. Know your League Scoring System inside-out. Target the Players that benefit the most from your League's individual Scoring System. For example, in a League where QB gets 6/TDP with no penalty for INT, QB's have a different value than in a League where QB gets 4/TDP and -1 INT. It not only affects who you Draft at the Position, but where you Draft them.

4. In conjunction with the above, know your League Starting Lineup Options inside-out, especially if there's Flex or multiple Starting Lineup Options available. Often, you can find the 'Optimal Lineup' amongst them, and Draft accordingly. The Year we won PayDaySports, folks looked at me cross-eyed when I went WR-WR-WR-WR with 1st 4 Picks, but weren't laughing so much as the Season wore on.

Base your Projections/Buckets/Lists based on 3 & 4.

5. Try to start Positional Runs, or influence them, rather than getting caught up in them. Consider swimming against the stream or disrupting a Run when you see what looks like one starting. Valuable Players fall when a run starts, and there are opportunities to be had for the shrewd Drafter.

6. Don't get as caught up in filling out a Starting Lineup as taking a Quality Player who falls in your lap. If you finish the Draft with a Roster full of desirable Players, you can trade from positions of strength to build a Superior Starting Lineup before or during the early part of the Season.

7. Based on much of the above, enter your Draft with a Game Plan/Outline, but be flexible, and no matter what happens remain calm, and work with the hand your dealt as the Draft unfolds. Don't panic - if you're really stymied at any point when you're OTC, take a deep breath, and as a last resort, go with Best Player Available, then regroup for your next Pick. Drafting BPA is never a bad thing when your stuck. If you Draft a Quality Player when you're in a pinch, regardless of need, you can often use him to your advantage down the road in negotiating a Deal to strengthen your weak spots.

At least, that's my take.

Very good advice fellas. There are two additional things that I credit for putting me over the top.

1. Mock your butt off

2. Watch as many preseason games as you can.

Know how your league members draft. I have some leagues which follow most mocks but I've been in a couple where there is always that one owner who makes crazy reach picks...it's nice to know what will probably fall to you but I think most people here will tell you to not get stuck on a certain strategy but instead keep an open mindset to grabbing value.

Personally, I load up on uber stud wr's and a top qb and shuffle mediocre rb options into my lineup but that's just a style that works for me. Last year I had Brees, AJ, Calvin, Jennings, Holmes, as my top threats. Turner was a great value pick for me but other weeks my #2 rb consisted of Ryan Grant, Leon Washington, Michael Bush, Norwood, and LT's backup...I am well aware most would cringe at this strategy but it's something that works very well for me. Don't get too caught up in needing to draft a million rb's because that's what most people say you should do.

Another thing I think most people would agree on is to not be shy about reaching slightly if it's a player you really want. It's better to reach a round early and get somebody you really want than to pass them because the value wasn't there and to watch them blow up.

I've been in my main league with the same guys for several years, and I have records of our past drafts. The past couple of years I have analyzed the tendencies of both the league and the individual players.

I have a pretty good idea how many players at each position will have been taken when each of my picks come around. So if I'm wondering if I should wait until the sixth round to take a quarterback I'll have an idea how many will have been taken, and using ADP I can get an idea who will be available.

I also compare my leaguemates' drafting tendencies. I know which guys are more likely to load up on running backs, and which guys will take a defense early. I know which guy has taken Donovan McNabb three of the past four years.

I end up with a lot of information, most of which is not very useful, but it has helped me improve a couple of picks each draft, which makes the effort worth it to me.

ipljeff said:

Very good advice fellas. There are two additional things that I credit for putting me over the top.

1. Mock your butt off

2. Watch as many preseason games as you can.

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and

BPA

early and often.

don't get hung up on drafting all "starters" before adding depth.

Couch Potato said:

Adebisi said:

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This is so funny to you why? Guy comes in here, pretty new to FBG, and he is given the "laughing at you, not with you" smilie. Way to make him want to post more in the future.You don't have anything to add or anything good to say, just don't post.:finger:

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I thought Joe made a big point that the admin's were going to clean that kind of stuff out of the Shark Pool too.

Pre Draft

Mock as much as you can. This is the time to try out different strategies out without it counting. Does help if you know what your spot is based on last years record. If you pick draft spots on draft day move around when you do different mocks.

Draft Day

Track the draft. Track each team during the draft, so you know what each team has. Many times a player will fall to you because teams behind you already have filled that spot. Looking behind you seems odd, but it shows you what might come back to you.

Dont bring a lot to the draft. Cheatsheet, some kind of draft tracker, SOS, and bye week info.

Things I do:

Take a shower

Pick up hot wings & beer...

Seriously, many good points have already been made, but I'll toss in my thoughts for a local league...

1 Look back at previous drafts and look for tendencies by other drafters and yourself. This will help you know your opponent (like a poker tell)

2 I prefer to look at last year's end of season rankings and compare them to this year's top 200 from whatever site you prefer. I look for big discrepancies. I use this as a baseline for my research for this season (what changed to cause the discrepancy from last year to this?) I find this reduces my research time considerably!

3 From there I read the boards and camp reports and then begin to put my players into tiers or buckets. Not only by position, but by where I'm willing to draft them (this helps you be able to adjust on the fly during the draft. Ex. when a position run happens, you can zag and take a different position player that you have rated equally)

4 Once you have tiers and your top 200 by tiers, then compare it to current ADP. This will give you an idea of where you may have to jump up a round or 2 to get "your" guy and also where you can possibly wait for someone.

5 Then take this info to Mock Draft Central and mock you butt off! Practice goind strictly by your tiers. Then try "reaching" up for the guys you want. Then try combining techniques.

6 Once draft day comes, use your knowledge and preparation and enjoy yourself.

My #1 word of advice is to identify your "high upside" players you want to target and don't be afraid to reach for them! People may laugh at the draft, but you'll laugh last when you get your guy AND he pays off.

My #2 word of advice is to never start your preparations by looking at ADP. That should be one of the last things you look upon.

Good luck and have fun!!!

Couch Potato said:

Adebisi said:

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This is so funny to you why? Guy comes in here, pretty new to FBG, and he is given the "laughing at you, not with you" smilie.

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Which one is the laughing with you smiley?Jason Wood would probably have a better idea of what his 'reverse SOS' is, but I'll guess it's simply looking at how LAST year's SOS might have impacted player stats, rather than projecting next year's SOS.I'm guessing that because some of these guys project stats on every offensive player in the league down to detroit's 5th receiver, but think defenses are entirely random and impossible to project.

in short, I try to use the Draft Dominator to run 40-50 mock drafts (at min) and play around with the settings to get a good feel for which players should be available for each of the first 10 picks.

Jeff Tefertiller said:

in short, I try to use the Draft Dominator to run 40-50 mock drafts (at min) and play around with the settings to get a good feel for which players should be available for each of the first 10 picks.

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The DD is great for turbo mocking IMO. I just like to mock in live mode too. Plus DD is a terrific draft-day tool!!!!

Jasonb,

Convince your league to switch to an auction format. You'll never go back to a draft.

Mocks have never really been beneficial to me. They set false expectations of players who should be available in later rounds but never are when it comes to the real draft. To each is own though.

My keys:

- Choose a set of projections/rankings you like (tweak them if necessary) and then organize them by position and tier each position (tiering helps keep things organized and points out value once you're in the heat of the draft).

- I like to map out my first three picks. If you been in the same league for a couple of years you start to learn your league mates draft tendencies and make educated guesses on whom will be taken (i.e. when WRs and QBs will start to be drafted). For example, at pick 2.10 if QB A is still available I draft him and go best available WR with pick 3.02 (if he is not there, I go best available WR with 2.10 and pick the best available RB at 3.02).... that sort of thing. Basically build up drafting scenarios based upon whom you think will be available. After round 3 it is almost impossible to predict and do this exercise.

- Have a SOS handy if you get to a point in the draft where you're choosing between to players of similar ADP (I use SOS as the tiebreaker).

- Have a bye week schedule handy for the end of the draft. I typically try to draft my DEF and kicker such that their bye weeks don't line up with other position players on my team. This may not be a big deal for your league but my league keeps a very small bench, so if multiple players have the same bye week I may be forced to drop a player on to the WW just so that I can have an active player to play that bye week.

- Most of all have fun. For me, the draft is one of the best experiences of the FF season. Have some drinks, talk smack to your buddies, and always draft live.

Cheers

AnonymousBob said:

Jasonb,Convince your league to switch to an auction format. You'll never go back to a draft.

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I'm a huge auction proponent as well, but I think it's only mandatory when your League Size grows to more than 12 Teams.As much as I love the philosophy of the Auction (every Owner has access to every Player, depending on the amount of resources they're willing to allocate to acquire him), I don't think the swings are so bad that with 12 Teams or fewer, you can't do OK with a Serpentine Draft.One thing I've been advising folks about lately, in regards to switching to Auction, is the idea of transitioning in the 1st year, where, say the 1st 96 Players (8 Rounds * 12 Teams) are Auctioned off, and you revert to a Draft for the final 8-16 Rounds of your Draft, so folks get a bit of both the 1st year in.A twist I like would be to allow the guy who spends the least during the Auction Portion of the Draft to have the 1st Pick in the Serpentine Portion, and on down the line.Whatever you do, good luck!Also, forgot to mention one thing in my previous reply, that was touched on by another Poster - always track the Draft with your own personal Draft Board, which allows you to not only view the flow of the Draft as a whole, but to specifically track what your Divisional Opponents are doing.In many Leagues, winning your Division is a free pass to the Playoffs - it's very important to thwart your Divisional Rivals at every turn if you're able to (Drafting Sproles if they have Tomlinson, having an important WR for every elite QB they have, so you can potentially absorb some of his stats when playing head to head.). Often times, it's all in the details.

For me...I print out a cheat sheet and a draft grid so I can track who has taken what for their team, and that's about it. I cross names off of the cheat sheet when they are taken and I add them to the other sheet. I also bring FBG's depth charts, printed out the day of the draft for the latest info.

I don't follow the sheet, I just use it to reference names. I don't necessarily agree with other folks rankings, so I will upgrade certain players and downgrade others based on my personal thoughts.

Why such a lazy approach, you ask? Since I started doing contract dynasty a few years ago, I feel like I never get out of touch. I am sure I could spend more time preparing specific to a scoring system or what have you. In general I stay fairly well versed in team's O-line and defense adaptations through the dynasty leagues.

At the draft I just focus on having fun and drafting. I have recognized in offense only redraft fantasy football leagues that have a bunch of skilled guys in them that luck plays the grater part. In IDP Contract dynasty there is a lot more to it. That's closer to the skillz needed for Fantasy Baseball. Not a knock on redraft leagues, they are fun, but when 12 owners are all fanatics, it's tough to find a real edge.

ipljeff said:

Very good advice fellas. There are two additional things that I credit for putting me over the top.

1. Mock your butt off

2. Watch as many preseason games as you can.

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This is key, especially in leagues where I know in advance where I´ll be drafting. Gives me the opportunity to try different ¨non-conventional¨ strategies (WR/WR/RB or QB/WR/WR) and also get a common/average understanding of who´ll be available and when for the later rounds...This is a nice website as you can bang out a ton of mocks in a short time.

Good Luck.

greggorymac said:

Mocks have never really been beneficial to me. They set false expectations of players who should be available in later rounds but never are when it comes to the real draft. To each is own though.

My keys:

- Choose a set of projections/rankings you like (tweak them if necessary) and then organize them by position and tier each position (tiering helps keep things organized and points out value once you're in the heat of the draft).

- I like to map out my first three picks. If you been in the same league for a couple of years you start to learn your league mates draft tendencies and make educated guesses on whom will be taken (i.e. when WRs and QBs will start to be drafted). For example, at pick 2.10 if QB A is still available I draft him and go best available WR with pick 3.02 (if he is not there, I go best available WR with 2.10 and pick the best available RB at 3.02).... that sort of thing. Basically build up drafting scenarios based upon whom you think will be available. After round 3 it is almost impossible to predict and do this exercise.

- Have a SOS handy if you get to a point in the draft where you're choosing between to players of similar ADP (I use SOS as the tiebreaker).

- Have a bye week schedule handy for the end of the draft. I typically try to draft my DEF and kicker such that their bye weeks don't line up with other position players on my team. This may not be a big deal for your league but my league keeps a very small bench, so if multiple players have the same bye week I may be forced to drop a player on to the WW just so that I can have an active player to play that bye week.

- Most of all have fun. For me, the draft is one of the best experiences of the FF season. Have some drinks, talk smack to your buddies, and always draft live.

Cheers

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The bold is Mocks have gotten me into trouble because I think there's ton of really good info out there on undervalued/overvalued that doesn't seem to make it's way to ADP. I suspect it's because in a mock, people are MUCH more likely to time out or simply take the most valuable player the site itself has pre-determined which dumbs down the ADP of the more popular mid-rounders. Right now at FFCalc for instance, McFadden is 54th overall and Mendenhall is 100th. Players like that - if I go into a draft with 11 guys that are well read and weigh ADP too heavily, I seem to get cherry picked a lot.

-jb- said:

I've been doing it so long, it's become a bit of a zen thing. Knowing ADP, how specific leaguemates draft, and players you think are better than their rankings is pretty much all you need. I can look at the FBG ADP (blend of six others) for an hour, and walk into a draft confident. Of course, this is only the case because I read about the NFL all year and have educated opinions on just about every player.

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Pretty much this. I am concentrating on bigger and better things now and my success rate has gone up. I firmly believe you could field a competitive FF team if you skipped the draft but had first whack at free agents each week. It is a lot of luck. I still have fun, but I don't put in nearly the time any more.

greggorymac said:

Mocks have never really been beneficial to me. They set false expectations of players who should be available in later rounds but never are when it comes to the real draft. To each is own though.My keys:- Choose a set of projections/rankings you like (tweak them if necessary) and then organize them by position and tier each position (tiering helps keep things organized and points out value once you're in the heat of the draft).- I like to map out my first three picks. If you been in the same league for a couple of years you start to learn your league mates draft tendencies and make educated guesses on whom will be taken (i.e. when WRs and QBs will start to be drafted). For example, at pick 2.10 if QB A is still available I draft him and go best available WR with pick 3.02 (if he is not there, I go best available WR with 2.10 and pick the best available RB at 3.02).... that sort of thing. Basically build up drafting scenarios based upon whom you think will be available. After round 3 it is almost impossible to predict and do this exercise.

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Good thinking here. This all works together in my approach. I like to consider the first 5 rounds, which I pretty much know will always be RBs/WRs and maybe a QB. You never know how the draft will fall, so rather than mock for specific players I look at my tiers and ADP and see the lineup I could have with, for instance, a WR-WR-RB-WR-RB sequence of picks. Will my RB2 be too weak? How late will I be able to find a QB I actively like? Answering those questions develops my strategy for the year.

In redraft my best seasons have literally been drafting the day after coming back from vacation, and seeing very little NFL football & having very little news the week or two before.

Do what's worked for you, see what option are out there in mocks - not c=necesaarily players, but use them to play around with roster thoughts, and "What if?" scenarios that you might not normally try.

The guys who say you need more luck are spot on - I haven't missed the playoffs in a redraft league in over a decade, and once you're in anybody can win the thing, unless they got crippled by injury after clinching a berth:

Regular season: Skill > Luck

Playoffs: Luck >> Skill

The thing that has helped me the most in having consistently good drafts is extensive mock drafting, as has been mentioned by others. Mock draft like crazy.

It helps me get a better idea of player "tiers" and where the value can be found in a draft. Of course, it also helps that I've been in the same keeper league for years, and I have a good idea of my opponents' tendencies, which helps me have slightly more accurate mocks.

Mock drafting also helps me come up with drafting "backup plans", so I'm more prepared and less likely to make a panic pick.

I always keep up-to-date with players ADP, and basically take in as much info as I can from the Shark Pool and from watching preseason games.

stevegamer said:

The guys who say you need more luck are spot on - I haven't missed the playoffs in a redraft league in over a decade, and once you're in anybody can win the thing, unless they got crippled by injury after clinching a berth: Regular season: Skill > LuckPlayoffs: Luck >> Skill

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Agree 110%. If you're always in the playoffs or the Super Bowl there's absolutely nothing else you can do. Once the playoffs start it's all about luck. For the most part, the lowest seed has almost as good a chance as the top seed to win it all.

I used to do VBD and projections and then realized that my projections stunk and led to bad drafting. Recently I started grouping guys into tiers (or buckets I suppose) and have done better. I put almost zero stock in pre-season performance and pay attention to guys with opportunities to get more PT and weigh career averages for steady guys. Prior to draft day I have players broken down into their tiers and get an idea of what I think the top 10 - 20 will be. I look at the projected first round picks and find the guy I'm torn on the most, like Stephen Jackson this past season, and know that I'll draw that draft spot and have to make that decision.

On draft day I get up and make chili. Go play golf. Grab my laptop, the chili, and head to the draft. I enjoy cold beers and talk up players that are having good pre-seasons that I have no interest in and try to put out as many trade feelers as possible. I always want to trade down and stockpile picks. Unless I get the #1 pick, I'd rather get out of the first round. From being in the same league for 10+ years I know which guys are Cheese Heads and pick Packers ASAP. Which guys like rookies and will grab them 2 or 3 rounds ahead of everyone else's expectations. Which guys will chase runs, especially RBs, and which guys you can rattle by reminding them that they haven't won the title yet. Of course there's one guy who always seems to have his player list very closely aligned with mine. I hate when we pick next to each other.

I guess I can sum up my strategy this way. It's not a science. I've been doing this long enough to know I can draft a competitive team without a list if I had to. Mock some (at least until after the first round when most guys quit) and talk to guys to see who's hot for who. Drink beer, talk smack and have as much fun as possible.

Great advice...thanks for all the suggestions. It appears from everyone's responses that I am over analzying my strategy with too much data. Maybe this year I just keep it simple, and try not to over think it.

This has been a great find, and I am really hoping none of my leaguemates are on this site. Or at least not until I claim a championship...

I think alot of the tools, Mocks, SOS, whatever, are meant to give you a 'feel' for the value on the board.

You should know your league scoring, but only to the point of are QB TDs 6 points or 4? Do players receive individual return yardage/TD points? Is it PPR (hopefully you know that already). Or, just look at last year's rankings based on that scoring system and see where people fall.

You can do Mocks to get a feel for 'what happens' when you go RB/RB...are all the WR you are happy with gone by the time you start drafting them? Just get a 'feel' for how long you *might* be able to wait on a position or a player.

I like to make a list of players I want. I make a copy of that list, and put that list in a safe place...(heh heh).... Anyways, my list is usually based on all the stuff folks are mentioning here...things I hear in interviews, podcasts, read on Sharkpool, other news/scouting sources, or see in a game (or remember from last year), rumors of injuries or potential to get the ball more, etc. SOS might inform some of my rankings...I'll make a note if the playoff weeks are against PIT, BAL, and PHI, something like that. I lay out my list of players I want in approximate tiers by position.

I generally ignore bye weeks.

I like to review last year's overall stats, recalling player injuries/situations. I didn't realize that Matt Cassel only had 21 TDs last year...and the NYJ were in the top 5 DEF in some scoring systems by the end of the year.

I like to do some mocks and look at the rankings I think my league-mates will use. Knowing Average Draft Postion (mixing with knowledge of your league-mates' tendencies) will let you do better Value Based Drafting. One work league I had was mostly Yahoos...so I would factor in the Yahoo top 100 into the ADP since the online draft tool kept those rankings right in front of everyone. It does influence the picks for managers without a real plan. I could see a guy was 20 picks away and know I could wait on him.

So, make a list of players I want, place them in Tiers, list the ADP for them, walk into the draft with that list and then go with players I really want while trying to heed the VBD. This helps me let players fall a bit before 'having' to take them. I do also make a 'do not draft' list...sort of mentally. Just to make sure I don't draft a guy purely on VBD, but it's not someone I even want on my team.

Mostly the top 5 rounds go pretty much as expected most times. Rounds 6-10 are very important. Don't be guessing after round 10 either...have a list of handcuffs/ upside-sleepers to take with your Kicker/DEF after round 10.

I like having a visual like a Color-Coded draft board (which I use in my keeper league) or now Draft Dominator which I just started using in mocks. It does help to see everyone has 1 QB already and you can probably wait a round or two...

Jasonb said:

Great advice...thanks for all the suggestions. It appears from everyone's responses that I am over analzying my strategy with too much data. Maybe this year I just keep it simple, and try not to over think it.This has been a great find, and I am really hoping none of my leaguemates are on this site. Or at least not until I claim a championship...

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This place will give you a great competitive advantage. Sign up for the free emails and good luck..

Touchdown Syndrome said:

stevegamer said:

The guys who say you need more luck are spot on - I haven't missed the playoffs in a redraft league in over a decade, and once you're in anybody can win the thing, unless they got crippled by injury after clinching a berth: Regular season: Skill > LuckPlayoffs: Luck >> Skill

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Agree 110%. If you're always in the playoffs or the Super Bowl there's absolutely nothing else you can do. Once the playoffs start it's all about luck. For the most part, the lowest seed has almost as good a chance as the top seed to win it all.

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I agree. But that's probably because I've made it to the championship game 5 years in a row but only won it once...To paraphrase someone:There's more skill than the bad players will admit and more luck than the good players will admit.

I love fbg's but imo the Shark Pool is just as useful, if not more so, than the subscription itself.

My name is indicative on how long I have been playing.

For years, pre-internet, I would take advantage of the ff mags dated info. that fools brought. QBs would go in the 1st round because they scored the most. In Emmitt's record TD setting year I got Emmitt in the 1st round and Jerry Rice in the 2nd Round. I dominated. Rules of thumb these days, I came up with on my own back then.

Anyway,

most of my advice has already been given. I keep up these days. I print out recent rankings from fftoday. Mostly for use to cross off my list with my own tiers in my head.

Keep track of others draft say your are 11 pick in a 12 team serpentine draft. It's coming to you look at team 12 who needs a RB but has WRs , you are already stacked at starting RBs and need a WR, take the RB the sticks out above the rest who won't be there. Good chance your RB won't be there but the WR would still be there.

Check out preseason games. One year I happened to turn to a Rams preseason game and watched their frist year QB who I never heard of throw right between the numbers of his receivers who kept dropping the passes. I knew the drops would get taken care of and nobody would even know who the QB was and I could take a late round sleeper on him, heck, he was the starter. I won my league with Kurt Warner that year. Taking Edge in the 2nd round of his rookie season.

My main advice is use your own head, that is what makes it fun, don't take Ernest Graham (last year) because he is 12 on the RB list if you think Forte is coming into his own. My your own mistakes and victories, so it is all on you, not some sheet you are going off.

Great advice about knowing your league and paying attention to preseason games. One of the most fun things about FF is noticing something in preseason and watching it pan out for you in the season. I was really impressed with what I saw from Deangelo Williams in preseason last year and drafting him on that impression really worked out well. In the same vein, I also liked what I saw out of Ray Rice and his selection did not work out as well, even though he was a late round flyer. So, playing your hunches does not always work out but when it does it is a lot of fun. Also, keeping track of previous drafts helps you to predict how future drafts might turn out. Any edge you can get is big because, as you know, these leagues are often won and lost by very slim margins. That's another thing that makes this game great.

ipljeff said:

Very good advice fellas. There are two additional things that I credit for putting me over the top.1. Mock your butt off2. Watch as many preseason games as you can.

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great advice here, especially doing the mock drafts. Do mock drafts until you are blue in the face and can't possibly stand to do another mock draft... then do two more. That seems to help me quite a bit.Also, there is no substitute for watching the players play. This is gonna help you make good mid to late round picks, these are the rounds that win championships.

The draft dominator & caps lock button.

But mostly the draft dominator. I don't play redraft much, but the DD helps me cream it when I do.

I'm also a subscriber to the 'who does X play in weeks 14-16' theory. Many don't, but it seems to work for me. If you can't draft those guys, draft the players that will help you trade for those guys when the time comes.

Didn't read the whole thread, so this has probably already been offered up:

--rank your players & tier them accordingly

--don't target specific guys early, take best player available

--let players fall to you

That's just the very general strategy I follow and it's worked out pretty well

It sounds like you're already doing pretty well.

If you're coming in 2nd, but never getting over the top, you probably should look at improving some aspects of your management in-season. Try to make more and smarter trades. Improve waiver wire performance, etc.

As for the draft, I am a very outside-the-box thinker.

At the beginning of the 2007 season, my long-time league converted into a dynasty league to be done in an auction-style format.

The first 50 players to be bid on were already pre-determined, after that you got to select a player to bid on.

Guys were throwing money at players left and right and after the top 50 only had Antonio Gates.

I came in third that year and steam-rolled the league last year.

Is this bragging? Not the point. The point is that if you think WAY outside the box, you can often get huge advantages over your league.

Don't forget, everyone in your league looks online for draft rankings, looks to magazines, etc.. So you have to soak in all the advice you can, and than come up with your OWN rankings. This is a must.

chook said:

I'm also a subscriber to the 'who does X play in weeks 14-16' theory. Many don't, but it seems to work for me. If you can't draft those guys, draft the players that will help you trade for those guys when the time comes.

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I completely agree...I do the same thing. I'll gladly take a loss or two during the regular season if it gives me a better playoff matchup.This is getting away from the draft but I always do a lot of trades during the season. I will always trade for the biggest stud I can get, even if I have to overpay a little with good players. Imo, 1 stud + 1 mediocre player >>>>> 2 good players. A lot of owners will trade away the stud for two high quality players and you can usually find some scrub off the ww in a worst case scenario.

AnonymousBob said:

chook said:

I'm also a subscriber to the 'who does X play in weeks 14-16' theory. Many don't, but it seems to work for me. If you can't draft those guys, draft the players that will help you trade for those guys when the time comes.

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I completely agree...I do the same thing. I'll gladly take a loss or two during the regular season if it gives me a better playoff matchup.This is getting away from the draft but I always do a lot of trades during the season. I will always trade for the biggest stud I can get, even if I have to overpay a little with good players. Imo, 1 stud + 1 mediocre player >>>>> 2 good players. A lot of owners will trade away the stud for two high quality players and you can usually find some scrub off the ww in a worst case scenario.

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I love using the DD to run my mocks. Since I have a keeper league, I normally run a mock draft in excel and use average rankings to fill in their roster to predict what they will draft. But then I go into DD, input an adjusted ADP by position. Also, you can change how other teams "draft" by in the mock draft, either by CBS rankings, magazine rankings, average rankings, expert rankings, and so on. So if you know how your competition drafts by, this could help. Also, you can "weight" the points in the fantasy playoffs so that players with higher projected stats in those games will move up in your rankings.

Jasonb said:

Great advice...thanks for all the suggestions. It appears from everyone's responses that I am over analzying my strategy with too much data. Maybe this year I just keep it simple, and try not to over think it.This has been a great find, and I am really hoping none of my leaguemates are on this site. Or at least not until I claim a championship...

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Jason,I see many excellent posts already in this thread. I hope I can add something of value.While it's possible to overanalyze, I would advise you not to completely leave out all analysis. Each player has to find what works best in their circumstances. I've been helped by having much less time in recent years to devote to analysis, but the one year in which I had zero time also was my weakest season ever. Basically, I incorporate projections/analysis into my tiering process so that it helps to differentiate players within and among positions. That helps me get through my first few rounds.For making the most of the middle and later draft picks, you need to identify a handful of players at each position who are "fallback" players. I don't do many mocks, but I prepare several "scripts" so that depending on what positions I have drafted early, I already know which players at each position I can expect to pick from, and when only one or two of those players remain.Expanding on that last point, I believe too many people try to plan their draft rigidly. The expression "let the draft come to you" means to not force yourself into preplanned selections if a better option/value unexpectedly lands at your draft slot. I am always prepared to go any direction: RB/RB, WR/WR, early QB, early TE, whatever. It only takes a little bit of time to be prepared for every possibility, and in fact once you do this a few times on paper, you will be able to do it reflexively during the draft.Good luck, and don't be too stingy on this site with your leaguemates!!