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Del Rio says MJD to get "18 carries a game, 5-6 looks out the bac (1 Viewer)

Maven

Maven

Footballguy
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.

 
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I would take him #1 overall in a heartbeat.

 
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries
Click to expand...
I believe the looks out of the backfield, but I don't see him surviving 18 carries a game. :shrug: 15-16 I could see, though I expect his YPC will also drop off considerably. People fail to recognize what benefit a runner gains from having defenses prepare to face two different runners. If MJD is the main guy this year, defenses will definitely slow him down more than they have in the past, and we already have seen his YPC drop considerably each year he's been in the league.
 
I have MJD. I'm considering trading him, because his value is probably the highest it will ever be in his career.

I see him pulling a Clinton Portis. A great first half, but then to slow and burn out in the second.

 
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switz said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries
Click to expand...
I believe the looks out of the backfield, but I don't see him surviving 18 carries a game. :shrug: 15-16 I could see, though I expect his YPC will also drop off considerably. People fail to recognize what benefit a runner gains from having defenses prepare to face two different runners. If MJD is the main guy this year, defenses will definitely slow him down more than they have in the past, and we already have seen his YPC drop considerably each year he's been in the league.
Click to expand...
Exactly...think how owned Felix Jones, for example, would get if he were the lead dog. Because teams have to prep for Barber and the noise he brings, Felix gets away with little swing passes, rushing opportunities on obvious pass plays, etc. Good to see you are coming around, Switz ;)
 
Sweet Love said:
switz said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries
Click to expand...
I believe the looks out of the backfield, but I don't see him surviving 18 carries a game. :shrug: 15-16 I could see, though I expect his YPC will also drop off considerably. People fail to recognize what benefit a runner gains from having defenses prepare to face two different runners. If MJD is the main guy this year, defenses will definitely slow him down more than they have in the past, and we already have seen his YPC drop considerably each year he's been in the league.
Click to expand...
Exactly...think how owned Felix Jones, for example, would get if he were the lead dog. Because teams have to prep for Barber and the noise he brings, Felix gets away with little swing passes, rushing opportunities on obvious pass plays, etc. Good to see you are coming around, Switz ;)
Click to expand...
LOVE IT :pokey:
 
I was surprised to see how much his ypc had dropped in each of his first three years.

I may have to rethink my projections and rankings for him.

 
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.
Click to expand...
I like MJD for this year as well, but if you are basing his success on this (bold) statement, then I'd suggest you stay away from MJD as Holt probably will not "stretch the field".......Right now, Holt is essentially a poor man's Houshmandzadeh, which is almost insane to say, but I just didn't see this guy getting any separation last year.
 
Blackjacks said:
I was surprised to see how much his ypc had dropped in each of his first three years.I may have to rethink my projections and rankings for him.
Click to expand...
In 2006, his ypc was 5.7. I don't know any RB who can maintain that average from year to year. In 2007, it came down to earth at 4.6, which is still a very respectable ypc average. 2008 saw his average drop to 4.2 ypc, but that was a year in which the Jacksonville offensive line was destroyed by injuries - they lost three starters. Any RBs ypc is going to be hurt by that. According to all accounts, those three are expected to return at full strength and they added Tra Thomas in the offseason. I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that this will be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and I fully expect Mojo's ypc to increase in response to that.
 
kremenull said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.
Click to expand...
I like MJD for this year as well, but if you are basing his success on this (bold) statement, then I'd suggest you stay away from MJD as Holt probably will not "stretch the field".......Right now, Holt is essentially a poor man's Houshmandzadeh, which is almost insane to say, but I just didn't see this guy getting any separation last year.
Click to expand...
Thats what they said about Randy Moss the summer before he went to the Pats....just watch. Not saying hes gonna have that type of year..im just saying hes not done.
 
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Maven said:
kremenull said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.
Click to expand...
I like MJD for this year as well, but if you are basing his success on this (bold) statement, then I'd suggest you stay away from MJD as Holt probably will not "stretch the field".......Right now, Holt is essentially a poor man's Houshmandzadeh, which is almost insane to say, but I just didn't see this guy getting any separation last year.
Click to expand...
Thats what they said about Randy Moss the summer before he went to the Pats....just watch. Not saying hes gonna have that type of year..im just saying hes not done.
Click to expand...
Moss didn't have a knee that's getting worst with each day. Holt will help, but he's not going to scare any D-backs any more, or command double coverage like Moss. MJD should have a good year, but Holt will not take away the 8 in the box waiting for MJD I can't see taking MJD over AP, especially if Favre shows up for the Vikes, and if Harvin is half as good as they say he is(vikes have made 40 plays for Harvin, wildcat, RB etc) , AP will not see to many 8 in the box

 
switz said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries
Click to expand...
I believe the looks out of the backfield, but I don't see him surviving 18 carries a game. :shrug: 15-16 I could see, though I expect his YPC will also drop off considerably. People fail to recognize what benefit a runner gains from having defenses prepare to face two different runners. If MJD is the main guy this year, defenses will definitely slow him down more than they have in the past, and we already have seen his YPC drop considerably each year he's been in the league.
Click to expand...
We're only talking about 288 carries. Jacksonville had 426 attempts last year with a crappy line. I expect their line will be better this year. Instead of just having to plan for MJD and Taylor, teams will have to plan for MJD, Greg Jones, and Rashad Jennings. Is there now a 280 carry stigma? It really seems like people are spending too much time anticipating injury/wearing down.

 
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Give me ADP and Chris Johnson all day over MJD.....all day.

MJD is a hell of a back too. He would be 3rd on my board.

 
KCC said:
Blackjacks said:
I was surprised to see how much his ypc had dropped in each of his first three years.

I may have to rethink my projections and rankings for him.
Click to expand...
In 2006, his ypc was 5.7. I don't know any RB who can maintain that average from year to year. In 2007, it came down to earth at 4.6, which is still a very respectable ypc average. 2008 saw his average drop to 4.2 ypc, but that was a year in which the Jacksonville offensive line was destroyed by injuries - they lost three starters. Any RBs ypc is going to be hurt by that. According to all accounts, those three are expected to return at full strength and they added Tra Thomas in the offseason. I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that this will be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and I fully expect Mojo's ypc to increase in response to that.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: The Jags line in 2008 was atrocious. It should be noted that Taylor's YPC dropped significantly from his 2007 mark as well. Fred went from a Pro-Bowl RB averaging 5.4 YPC in 2007 to averaging 3.9 YPC in 2008. That goes to show that the drop in MJD's YPC wasn't necessarily a product of his own doing. The Jax OLine is much improved this year.

 
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Todem said:
Give me ADP and Chris Johnson all day over MJD.....all day.MJD is a hell of a back too. He would be 3rd on my board.
Click to expand...
Why would you prefer having a back who won't catch many passes (ADP) or a back who won't see many goalline carries (Johnson) over a back who has a proven track record in both of those areas? I'm not trying to flame here, I'm just curious.
 
AllVolUT said:
KCC said:
Blackjacks said:
I was surprised to see how much his ypc had dropped in each of his first three years.

I may have to rethink my projections and rankings for him.
Click to expand...
In 2006, his ypc was 5.7. I don't know any RB who can maintain that average from year to year. In 2007, it came down to earth at 4.6, which is still a very respectable ypc average. 2008 saw his average drop to 4.2 ypc, but that was a year in which the Jacksonville offensive line was destroyed by injuries - they lost three starters. Any RBs ypc is going to be hurt by that. According to all accounts, those three are expected to return at full strength and they added Tra Thomas in the offseason. I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that this will be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and I fully expect Mojo's ypc to increase in response to that.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: The Jags line in 2008 was atrocious. It should be noted that Taylor's YPC dropped significantly from his 2007 mark as well. Fred went from a Pro-Bowl RB averaging 5.4 YPC in 2007 to averaging 3.9 YPC in 2008. That goes to show that the drop in MJD's YPC wasn't necessarily a product of his own doing. The Jax OLine is much improved this year.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Add in the fact that Jax drafted OTs in the 1st and 2nd and we may well see a DRAMATIC turnaround. MJD was my lead RB on one team, so I watched him closely... he was met in the backfield many times and had few lanes to run through.

His ypc did not go down due to increased workload. Frankly, that he got 4.2 behind that line last season is reason for optimism.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Maven said:
kremenull said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.
Click to expand...
I like MJD for this year as well, but if you are basing his success on this (bold) statement, then I'd suggest you stay away from MJD as Holt probably will not "stretch the field".......Right now, Holt is essentially a poor man's Houshmandzadeh, which is almost insane to say, but I just didn't see this guy getting any separation last year.
Click to expand...
Thats what they said about Randy Moss the summer before he went to the Pats....just watch. Not saying hes gonna have that type of year..im just saying hes not done.
Click to expand...
They did? They said the same things about a 28 year old receiver they're saying about a 33 year old receiver? Holt is not a deep threat in any case.
 
Maven said:
kremenull said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.
Click to expand...
I like MJD for this year as well, but if you are basing his success on this (bold) statement, then I'd suggest you stay away from MJD as Holt probably will not "stretch the field".......Right now, Holt is essentially a poor man's Houshmandzadeh, which is almost insane to say, but I just didn't see this guy getting any separation last year.
Click to expand...
Thats what they said about Randy Moss the summer before he went to the Pats....just watch. Not saying hes gonna have that type of year..im just saying hes not done.
Click to expand...
Other than the Titans, the Jags were really the only team that showed interest in Holt and both these teams are WR wastelands. I am a Holt fan but I think he's a WR on a major decline and I don't think his acquisition will have much impact on MJD's production. Moss didn't perform to expectations in Oakland because he didn't care. Holt just couldn't do it anymore. Unless he found some miracle cure for his bum knee, he can no longer get the same separation from the greatest show on turf days. I think MJD helps Holt more than the other way around.
 
Lott said:
AllVolUT said:
KCC said:
Blackjacks said:
I was surprised to see how much his ypc had dropped in each of his first three years.

I may have to rethink my projections and rankings for him.
Click to expand...
In 2006, his ypc was 5.7. I don't know any RB who can maintain that average from year to year. In 2007, it came down to earth at 4.6, which is still a very respectable ypc average. 2008 saw his average drop to 4.2 ypc, but that was a year in which the Jacksonville offensive line was destroyed by injuries - they lost three starters. Any RBs ypc is going to be hurt by that. According to all accounts, those three are expected to return at full strength and they added Tra Thomas in the offseason. I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that this will be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and I fully expect Mojo's ypc to increase in response to that.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: The Jags line in 2008 was atrocious. It should be noted that Taylor's YPC dropped significantly from his 2007 mark as well. Fred went from a Pro-Bowl RB averaging 5.4 YPC in 2007 to averaging 3.9 YPC in 2008. That goes to show that the drop in MJD's YPC wasn't necessarily a product of his own doing. The Jax OLine is much improved this year.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Add in the fact that Jax drafted OTs in the 1st and 2nd and we may well see a DRAMATIC turnaround. MJD was my lead RB on one team, so I watched him closely... he was met in the backfield many times and had few lanes to run through.

His ypc did not go down due to increased workload. Frankly, that he got 4.2 behind that line last season is reason for optimism.
Click to expand...
Excellent points about the offensive line. I can understand some of the concern about the workload because people haven't seen him get that number of carries as Del Rio now projects. However, MJDs body type is not much different than Barry Sanders. He's a short runner, but he's by no means a small runner. I also don't think the difference between 15-16 touches and 18-19 touches is nearly enough to worry about MJD breaking down. If you're worried about a 70-100 carry increase, I'd be more understanding, but not 30-40 over the course of 16 games. Plus, I think some of those worried about the number Del Rio mentioned are too focused on that quoted figure and not the overall gist of Del Rio's statement. The number is a goal for carries that may not be attained. What I take from this statement is that the Jaguars are going to give MJD the ball enough without swapping him out as frequently for other backs and that is the important point - MJD will be given an opportunity to get into a rhythm with the flow of the game. RBs complain all the time that frequent alternating of carries in down/distance situations can hamper a player's feel for the game. I think this is a terrific argument and why I'm more inclined to favor RBBC backs where the coaching staff alternates series rather than downs or down and distance situations.

I expect MJD to really thrive as the focal point of the offense and it has to do with the fact he will be counted on to do so. I think he's one of the five most talented backs in this league.

 
Has Del Rio come public with a statement as to how much MJD will be used on special teams? He got really gassed at the end of last season, but he was churning out crazy workload games...didn't he have 300 total yards against a late season opponent? If his special teams role is reduced I don't think he will have any problem carrying the workload as a feature back.

 
hickbones said:
Has Del Rio come public with a statement as to how much MJD will be used on special teams? He got really gassed at the end of last season, but he was churning out crazy workload games...didn't he have 300 total yards against a late season opponent? If his special teams role is reduced I don't think he will have any problem carrying the workload as a feature back.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: My guess is Mike Thomas will take over some (if not all) of the return duties....Should help MJD quite a bit.
 
btw... 5-6 looks a game means 80-96 targets for the year. With a catch rate of 77% for his career that works out to 62-74 receptions.

 
Two years ago at about this time Del Rio said Byron Leftwich is my starter, end of story. Don't put too much stock in what coaches, especially Del Rio, say. As a Jags fan and MJD owner in one league I'd be happy with that level of workload but I also don't think it's any more likely that it will happen based on Del Rio's statement.

 
KCC said:
Blackjacks said:
I was surprised to see how much his ypc had dropped in each of his first three years.I may have to rethink my projections and rankings for him.
Click to expand...
In 2006, his ypc was 5.7. I don't know any RB who can maintain that average from year to year. In 2007, it came down to earth at 4.6, which is still a very respectable ypc average. 2008 saw his average drop to 4.2 ypc, but that was a year in which the Jacksonville offensive line was destroyed by injuries - they lost three starters. Any RBs ypc is going to be hurt by that. According to all accounts, those three are expected to return at full strength and they added Tra Thomas in the offseason. I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that this will be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and I fully expect Mojo's ypc to increase in response to that.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: people can throw around all the numbers on MJD they want. the thing i keep coming back to is what i see on the field. the guy is talented. if he gets his opps and the O-line is decent he will be a solid RB1 this yr.
 
MJD was #6 RB last year in my money league, and I only see him improving his numbers this year for reasons people have already stated (O-line, not a lot of competition for carries, etc). I have the #2 pick in my league this year and I'm 99% convinced that I will take MJD. My league also has .5 PPR so all those catches are money in the bank.

 
Todem said:
Give me ADP and Chris Johnson all day over MJD.....all day.MJD is a hell of a back too. He would be 3rd on my board.
Click to expand...
I can understand the arguement for AP, but Chris Johnson? He's not even on the same tier as MJD.
 
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Sweet Love said:
switz said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries
Click to expand...
I believe the looks out of the backfield, but I don't see him surviving 18 carries a game. :shrug: 15-16 I could see, though I expect his YPC will also drop off considerably. People fail to recognize what benefit a runner gains from having defenses prepare to face two different runners. If MJD is the main guy this year, defenses will definitely slow him down more than they have in the past, and we already have seen his YPC drop considerably each year he's been in the league.
Click to expand...
Exactly...think how owned Felix Jones, for example, would get if he were the lead dog. Because teams have to prep for Barber and the noise he brings, Felix gets away with little swing passes, rushing opportunities on obvious pass plays, etc. Good to see you are coming around, Switz ;)
Click to expand...
Not sure what that has to do with the argument. Jones had what, 30 carries? And sure, no doubt his insane YPC was partially due to running in those circumstance. I fully expect his YPC to drop as he sees more carries, just as I expect MJDs to drop as he sees more carries. Dropping from 8 YPC down to 5 is one thing, dropping from 5 to below 4 is another. :shrug:
 
David Yudkin said:
He's averaged 11 carries and 4 targets a game over his career so far . . .
Click to expand...
This is my one and only concern about Drew. I am worried that Drew has been healthy and effective because his work load has been so light throughout his career. If you almost double the touches will he stay healthy and have his burst all year?
 
Da Guru said:
David Yudkin said:
He's averaged 11 carries and 4 targets a game over his career so far . . .
Click to expand...
This is my one and only concern about Drew. I am worried that Drew has been healthy and effective because his work load has been so light throughout his career. If you almost double the touches will he stay healthy and have his burst all year?
Click to expand...
If MJD is to get the amount of touches we're talking about in this thread there is no way he can realistically be used on ST as well. So in the end his overall "beating" won't go up much if at all IMO.
 
Wadsworth said:
Two years ago at about this time Del Rio said Byron Leftwich is my starter, end of story. Don't put too much stock in what coaches, especially Del Rio, say. As a Jags fan and MJD owner in one league I'd be happy with that level of workload but I also don't think it's any more likely that it will happen based on Del Rio's statement.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Del Rio statement = grain of salt
 
So, you guys who intend to target MJD in your draft, who do you like at the end of the 2nd and beginning of the 3rd to pair with him?

I love Reggie Bush and Wes Welker.

 
switz said:
Sweet Love said:
switz said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries
Click to expand...
I believe the looks out of the backfield, but I don't see him surviving 18 carries a game. :shrug: 15-16 I could see, though I expect his YPC will also drop off considerably. People fail to recognize what benefit a runner gains from having defenses prepare to face two different runners. If MJD is the main guy this year, defenses will definitely slow him down more than they have in the past, and we already have seen his YPC drop considerably each year he's been in the league.
Click to expand...
Exactly...think how owned Felix Jones, for example, would get if he were the lead dog. Because teams have to prep for Barber and the noise he brings, Felix gets away with little swing passes, rushing opportunities on obvious pass plays, etc. Good to see you are coming around, Switz ;)
Click to expand...
Not sure what that has to do with the argument. Jones had what, 30 carries? And sure, no doubt his insane YPC was partially due to running in those circumstance. I fully expect his YPC to drop as he sees more carries, just as I expect MJDs to drop as he sees more carries. Dropping from 8 YPC down to 5 is one thing, dropping from 5 to below 4 is another. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Who dropped from 5 to below 4?
 
switz said:
two_dollars said:
Todem said:
Give me ADP and Chris Johnson all day over MJD.....all day.

MJD is a hell of a back too. He would be 3rd on my board.
Click to expand...
I can understand the arguement for AP, but Chris Johnson? He's not even on the same tier as MJD.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Why?
Click to expand...
TD's and the presence of Lendale, who I think will have the best year of his career this season. After AP, MJD, and Forte, I think there's a bit of a drop off.
 
kremenull said:
Maven said:
16gm * 18 carries = about 288 carries

Delete this if this has already been posted. Looks like a very promising year for MJD. I'd almost be comfortable taking him #1. That whole line is healthy, has depth and is improved.... and if Holt can stretch the field, MJD looks to have a huge year.
Click to expand...
I like MJD for this year as well, but if you are basing his success on this (bold) statement, then I'd suggest you stay away from MJD as Holt probably will not "stretch the field".......Right now, Holt is essentially a poor man's Houshmandzadeh, which is almost insane to say, but I just didn't see this guy getting any separation last year.
Click to expand...
I don't think Holt needs to stretch the field. Jimmy Smith was not the best at seperation, but he was great at catching in traffic and going on out routes. I believe Holt can still do some damge but I think he needed an upgrade at QB. Garrard will be able to deliver him the ball.
 
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