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Why is everyone so certain that MJD will increase his production this (1 Viewer)

Justloveit

Footballguy
MJD is being talked about as potentially the #1RB in fantasy football this year. He's subsequently getting drafted higher and higher in drafts, particularly PPR leagues where he's often being taken #1 overall. It's not unusual to read articles by industry experts who are predicting 2000 total yards from him this year. Part of their reasoning is obviously that Fred Taylor is not in Jacksonville anymore and as such MJD's touches should subsequently rise significantly. They then extrapolate what MJD could do if he receives say 50% of Taylor's touches on top of what he would normally get.

The question I want to raise is: Is MJD a lock to increase his touches per game as much as people are expecting? Could the touches left behind by the departed Fred Taylor simply be taken by some sort of combination of Greg Jones and and Rashard Jennings? Thus leaving MJD with roughly the same number of touches as he got last season? We know MJD has never been the sole RB for his team, could the coaching staff want to ensure that they don't wear down their diminutive RB by avoiding giving him the type of workload so many people are expecting from him this year?

What sort of touches are you expecting from MJD this year?

Here's a recent article regarding MJD this year:

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP)—When the Jacksonville Jaguars break the huddle, Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) can be difficult to find.

Not just because he’s small.

The Jaguars are lining up Jones-Drew all over the field, an effort to keep the 5-foot-7, 208-pound running back from taking so many punishing hits in his first season as the team’s offensive centerpiece.

“That’s just being smart,” quarterback David Garrard(notes) said. “He’s a huge part of our offense, and we’ve got to do what we can to keep him out of harm’s way.”

Jacksonville’s philosophy has nothing to do with Jones-Drew’s durability. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio believes the former UCLA standout and second-round draft pick is probably the toughest runner in the NFL.

FILE - In this Aug. 3, 2009, f…

AP - Aug 15, 3:42 pm EDT

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But without Fred Taylor(notes) sharing carries, the Jaguars want to ensure that Jones-Drew stays healthy all season. So they’re trying to minimize the number of times he’s tackled by mammoth defensive linemen and hard-hitting linebackers.

Jones-Drew has lined up at running back, fullback, receiver and quarterback. He’s been in the backfield, in the slot and out wide. He’s gotten the ball on handoffs, pitches, screen passes, flair passes, bubble screens, quick slants and deep routes.

He even threw a touchdown pass in the team’s first scrimmage last weekend, so there’s no telling what he’ll do in Jacksonville’s preseason opener Monday night at Miami.

“I’m just trying to be ready to do whatever the coaches ask—play receiver, run the ball, block, return kicks,” Jones-Drew said. “Whatever it is, I’m willing to do it.”

Jones-Drew did plenty in his first three seasons.

He ran 530 times for 2,533 yards, caught 148 passes for 1,408 yards and scored 40 touchdowns. Only San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) has more touchdowns (61) than Jones-Drew since 2006.

Despite starting just three games and running behind an injury-depleted offensive line in 2008, Jones-Drew led the Jaguars with 824 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns. He also caught 62 passes for 565 yards—more than any other running back in the league—and two scores.

He had some problems, though.

After fumbling just once as a rookie and twice in 2007, Jones-Drew fumbled six times last season. Five came in the final four games.

Nonetheless, the Jaguars were convinced he could be the cornerstone of the offense. They released Taylor in February, parting ways with the team captain after 11 seasons, and gave Jones-Drew a five-year, $31 million contract that included $17.5 million guaranteed.

They also started tweaking the playbook.

“I think he’s one of the premier playmakers in the league,” Del Rio said. “Certainly for us he’s a guy we’re going to give plenty of touches to. So whether we’re handing him the ball, throwing him the ball, whether he’s blocking, he’s a real good football player and we’ll do different things to get him involved.”

And keep him out of the training room.

“As far as taking hits, we’re going to monitor how much he gets like anybody does with their backs,” Del Rio said. “Regardless of who is carrying the ball, you’re always monitoring the number of reps, and you have a target and a goal. There will be games when you don’t get to it and you want to do it more, and then there will be times where maybe you go beyond it and you realize that you’re probably going to be sore the next day. That’s all part of it.”

Jones-Drew is eager for more, even willing to take on a “Larry Johnson(notes) workload.” Johnson set an NFL record with 416 carries in 2006, and added 41 receptions.

Jones-Drew doesn’t anticipate getting that many touches, not with Greg Jones(notes) and rookie Rashad Jennings(notes) in the mix for playing time. But he could get close to 400, if he stays healthy.

“The league has changed thanks to Brian Westbrook(notes) and Marshall Faulk(notes),” Jones-Drew said. “You can throw a short pass to a running back and it’ll be just like a carry because you’re getting the ball at the line of scrimmage. But you’re getting it in space and not taking the hits.”

 
They did solidify the OLine and Garrard is suppose to be doing better. I think his draft spot is justified.

 
My feelings is that he could get more 20 to 20 carries/touches but not a lot more. I think his Redzone/Goalline carries will remain about the same because they will want to protect him and Greg Jones and Jennings have the size and skill set to do well there.

I think his numbers will go up this year but not nearly as much as many are predicting.

 
Thanks for the article.

I do think MJD should be considered a top 5 perhaps top 3 RB for 2009 (depends on what time of the day you catch me at). But I don't expect his rushing attempts to spike that much. Been saying all offseason that either Jones or Jennings or both will likely get Freds piece of the pie in this offense. Some others have talked about his YPC declining each year since his rookie season. But I don't think that matters much. Because it is still good enough and I don't think it reflects his ability much at all. More likely that is tied to the decline in the defense and the offensive line over the past 2 years. JAX lost both of thier starting guards last year. It hurt everyone. The line will be better this year than last. The defense depends on how the young defensive linemen develop. So that is cloudy to me right now.

 
I don't know about this MJD guy but he just went 1st overall in one of my redraft leagues.
Do you think he's worthy of a pick that high?
It's a cop out pick IMHO...its the trendy pick too. The guy has been #8 two years in a row and because he might see an uptick in touches he is being grabbed by a lot of FBG at #1 overall...folks believe they won't lose by taking him and feel guys like ADP apparently have much more risk attached. I am in another league where I drew the # slot and I know MJD will be there at #3, not sure I can pull the trigger on him. It jsut doesn't seem like a great pick IMHO, but I understand the arguement as to why he is taken.
 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.

just my honest opinion

 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.just my honest opinion
MJD is mainly being taken #! in ppr leagues. He wasn't THAT far behind ADP at all last year in ppr leagues.
 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.

just my honest opinion
MJD is mainly being taken #! in ppr leagues. He wasn't THAT far behind ADP at all last year in ppr leagues.
Pretty sure he was ahead of Peterson last year.
 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.

just my honest opinion
MJD is mainly being taken #! in ppr leagues. He wasn't THAT far behind ADP at all last year in ppr leagues.
Pretty sure he was ahead of Peterson last year.
He was, MJD finished 3rd in RB scoring last year while Peterson was 9th, 15 points behind. This was in a WCOFF PPR league.
 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.

just my honest opinion
MJD is mainly being taken #! in ppr leagues. He wasn't THAT far behind ADP at all last year in ppr leagues.
Pretty sure he was ahead of Peterson last year.
He was, MJD finished 3rd in RB scoring last year while Peterson was 9th, 15 points behind. This was in a WCOFF PPR league.
So does one year always relate to the next? Should we draft everyone in order of where they finished from 1-200 and see if anything changes?
 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.

just my honest opinion
MJD is mainly being taken #! in ppr leagues. He wasn't THAT far behind ADP at all last year in ppr leagues.
Pretty sure he was ahead of Peterson last year.
He was, MJD finished 3rd in RB scoring last year while Peterson was 9th, 15 points behind. This was in a WCOFF PPR league.
So does one year always relate to the next? Should we draft everyone in order of where they finished from 1-200 and see if anything changes?
:confused: Do you see anyone here pimping DeAngello Williams at #1?
 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.

just my honest opinion
MJD is mainly being taken #! in ppr leagues. He wasn't THAT far behind ADP at all last year in ppr leagues.
Pretty sure he was ahead of Peterson last year.
He was, MJD finished 3rd in RB scoring last year while Peterson was 9th, 15 points behind. This was in a WCOFF PPR league.
So does one year always relate to the next? Should we draft everyone in order of where they finished from 1-200 and see if anything changes?
1 year? MJD has been dominating in PPR format since he was a rookie. He is easily ahead of Peterson in that format.
 
I definitely think he is potentially a top 5 RB this year, but I am not sure he should be a top 2 or 3 pick like many are saying he should be. I think he is a stud (had him his rookie year, and benefited greatly from it), but with his size and all, I am not just completely convinced that his production will remain stellar with the increased touches.

 
Full Hi-Jack in progress

Let me clear about the monumental mistake of not taking ADP #1 and going with MJD. In the past 10 years we have seen incredible backs like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and whether you think those backs are truly great or not they simply had years and games where they blew us away. Whether we had the pleasure of owning them or for many had to go in to the week fearing these guys were going to explode against you...these backs were in a special class. That is what we ahve seen from Adrian Peterson. He has a terrific situation where his team has a lot going for it.

The defense is stout against the run and will likely be able to set up good field position for ADP and the entire offense. Whether you like Sage or not he is an upgrade at QB and will move the ball thus making it harder for opposing defenses to pinch up against the run. And there are now enough weapons on offense to where teams cannot simply sell out to stopping him solely.

I believe what we were flashed his rookie year will explode this season. Peterson is going to have some 40 point weeks, count on it. The guy can single handedly change the outcome on certain weeks and that adds up to big wins for FF owners. I can't imagine passing up ADP for MJD with the #1 pick but yet I am witnessing it going on as we speak.

 
Full Hi-Jack in progress

Let me clear about the monumental mistake of not taking ADP #1 and going with MJD. In the past 10 years we have seen incredible backs like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and whether you think those backs are truly great or not they simply had years and games where they blew us away. Whether we had the pleasure of owning them or for many had to go in to the week fearing these guys were going to explode against you...these backs were in a special class. That is what we ahve seen from Adrian Peterson. He has a terrific situation where his team has a lot going for it.

The defense is stout against the run and will likely be able to set up good field position for ADP and the entire offense. Whether you like Sage or not he is an upgrade at QB and will move the ball thus making it harder for opposing defenses to pinch up against the run. And there are now enough weapons on offense to where teams cannot simply sell out to stopping him solely.

I believe what we were flashed his rookie year will explode this season. Peterson is going to have some 40 point weeks, count on it. The guy can single handedly change the outcome on certain weeks and that adds up to big wins for FF owners. I can't imagine passing up ADP for MJD with the #1 pick but yet I am witnessing it going on as we speak.
Weren't you just telling us not to base things off of 1 year.....
 
Full Hi-Jack in progress

Let me clear about the monumental mistake of not taking ADP #1 and going with MJD. In the past 10 years we have seen incredible backs like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and whether you think those backs are truly great or not they simply had years and games where they blew us away. Whether we had the pleasure of owning them or for many had to go in to the week fearing these guys were going to explode against you...these backs were in a special class. That is what we ahve seen from Adrian Peterson. He has a terrific situation where his team has a lot going for it.

The defense is stout against the run and will likely be able to set up good field position for ADP and the entire offense. Whether you like Sage or not he is an upgrade at QB and will move the ball thus making it harder for opposing defenses to pinch up against the run. And there are now enough weapons on offense to where teams cannot simply sell out to stopping him solely.

I believe what we were flashed his rookie year will explode this season. Peterson is going to have some 40 point weeks, count on it. The guy can single handedly change the outcome on certain weeks and that adds up to big wins for FF owners. I can't imagine passing up ADP for MJD with the #1 pick but yet I am witnessing it going on as we speak.
Weren't you just telling us not to base things off of 1 year.....
No, you said that, I never wrote that. What I was referencing is that stats change every year...IIRC another poster said MJD has outscored ADP in PPR for the past couple years and my response is that stats change year to year. But on the bigger scale I was talking about a few elite superbacks from the past decade and I think Peterson can be the next one. What are the odds MJD finishes the year #1? Most say 0%. If I ask what are the odds ADP finishes #1, I bet there would be probably 25%+ that think that could happen.

The arguement the other way is what are the odds MJD finishes outside the top5-10 and it will be overwhelmingly 75-90%+ that believe MJD is a very safe pick and can't hurt you.

I tend to understand both arguements but I would still roll the bones on ADP and him having a monster year over the consistency of MJD...I think I can't be any clearer than that Jurb, hope you understand.

 
Full Hi-Jack in progress

Let me clear about the monumental mistake of not taking ADP #1 and going with MJD. In the past 10 years we have seen incredible backs like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and whether you think those backs are truly great or not they simply had years and games where they blew us away. Whether we had the pleasure of owning them or for many had to go in to the week fearing these guys were going to explode against you...these backs were in a special class. That is what we ahve seen from Adrian Peterson. He has a terrific situation where his team has a lot going for it.

The defense is stout against the run and will likely be able to set up good field position for ADP and the entire offense. Whether you like Sage or not he is an upgrade at QB and will move the ball thus making it harder for opposing defenses to pinch up against the run. And there are now enough weapons on offense to where teams cannot simply sell out to stopping him solely.

I believe what we were flashed his rookie year will explode this season. Peterson is going to have some 40 point weeks, count on it. The guy can single handedly change the outcome on certain weeks and that adds up to big wins for FF owners. I can't imagine passing up ADP for MJD with the #1 pick but yet I am witnessing it going on as we speak.
Weren't you just telling us not to base things off of 1 year.....
No, you said that, I never wrote that. What I was referencing is that stats change every year...IIRC another poster said MJD has outscored ADP in PPR for the past couple years and my response is that stats change year to year. But on the bigger scale I was talking about a few elite superbacks from the past decade and I think Peterson can be the next one. What are the odds MJD finishes the year #1? Most say 0%. If I ask what are the odds ADP finishes #1, I bet there would be probably 25%+ that think that could happen.

The arguement the other way is what are the odds MJD finishes outside the top5-10 and it will be overwhelmingly 75-90%+ that believe MJD is a very safe pick and can't hurt you.

I tend to understand both arguements but I would still roll the bones on ADP and him having a monster year over the consistency of MJD...I think I can't be any clearer than that Jurb, hope you understand.
These are your exact words from post #14:
So does one year always relate to the next? Should we draft everyone in order of where they finished from 1-200 and see if anything changes?
I never said anything about basing things on one year. You are clearly alluding to MJD's production from last year, seeing that he did in fact beat Peterson in PPR scoring. I only chimed in to point out to you that MJD has been a force in PPR leagues his entire career, not just one year (a point you ignored of course).It's laughable that you are sighting the odds of MJD finishing as the #1 RB at 0% and Peterson 25+%. I think I'll just end this debate now as you are clearly not going to be reasonable in it anyway.

 
Full Hi-Jack in progress

Let me clear about the monumental mistake of not taking ADP #1 and going with MJD. In the past 10 years we have seen incredible backs like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and whether you think those backs are truly great or not they simply had years and games where they blew us away. Whether we had the pleasure of owning them or for many had to go in to the week fearing these guys were going to explode against you...these backs were in a special class. That is what we ahve seen from Adrian Peterson. He has a terrific situation where his team has a lot going for it.

The defense is stout against the run and will likely be able to set up good field position for ADP and the entire offense. Whether you like Sage or not he is an upgrade at QB and will move the ball thus making it harder for opposing defenses to pinch up against the run. And there are now enough weapons on offense to where teams cannot simply sell out to stopping him solely.

I believe what we were flashed his rookie year will explode this season. Peterson is going to have some 40 point weeks, count on it. The guy can single handedly change the outcome on certain weeks and that adds up to big wins for FF owners. I can't imagine passing up ADP for MJD with the #1 pick but yet I am witnessing it going on as we speak.
Weren't you just telling us not to base things off of 1 year.....
No, you said that, I never wrote that. What I was referencing is that stats change every year...IIRC another poster said MJD has outscored ADP in PPR for the past couple years and my response is that stats change year to year. But on the bigger scale I was talking about a few elite superbacks from the past decade and I think Peterson can be the next one. What are the odds MJD finishes the year #1? Most say 0%. If I ask what are the odds ADP finishes #1, I bet there would be probably 25%+ that think that could happen.

The arguement the other way is what are the odds MJD finishes outside the top5-10 and it will be overwhelmingly 75-90%+ that believe MJD is a very safe pick and can't hurt you.

I tend to understand both arguements but I would still roll the bones on ADP and him having a monster year over the consistency of MJD...I think I can't be any clearer than that Jurb, hope you understand.
I assume you're talking about non-PPR leagues. In PPR leagues I think there's a very decent chance MJD could be #1.Peterson ran for 1,700+ yards and 10 TD's last year - MJD drew out-scored him as a platoon back - he caught sixty balls. I don't think he'll catch 60 balls again, but he doesn't have to since his role will be expanding considerably.

Just not sure how much you can reasonably expect Peterson to improve on 1700 yards & 10 TD's. If you're going to project him to rush over 2,000 yards and 15 TD's that's fine, GL, he certainly has the talent to do it, I just don't see it myself.

Non-PPR, Peterson is #1 without question imo. PPR leagues, I wouldn't kill anyone for taking either ADP or MJD.

 
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I find this year extremely interesting. I think there's more uncertainty at the top of theRBs and QBs than ever before. Guys like Portis, LT, Gore, Turner, Parker, MJD, Westbrook, S-Jax, and D-Will all could have huge years but a have some fairly major concerns as well IMO. There's a pretty good mix of older guys that may be fading (or could come back from some injuries and have big seasons) and younger guys that have a great season under their belt but either haven't been THE guy or may have load concerns.

For QBs I think there's big questions all around in Indy, questions about Brady's knee (and O-line), Warner's age and durability, Ryan's ability to avoid the sophmore slump, Cutler's new team, etc.

IMO, there seems to be tons of group think going on in fantasy football this year. I see a lot of very similar rankings despite what I think should be a very turbulant year at the the top of sheets. IMO, the best draft spots are either #1 overall, or near the turn. 2-8 or so is a total tossup with plenty of reasons to question every one of those guys.

Even better, I think this may be the ideal season to go WR/WR in the first two rounds.

 
MJD is being talked about as potentially the #1RB in fantasy football this year. He's subsequently getting drafted higher and higher in drafts, particularly PPR leagues where he's often being taken #1 overall. It's not unusual to read articles by industry experts who are predicting 2000 total yards from him this year. Part of their reasoning is obviously that Fred Taylor is not in Jacksonville anymore and as such MJD's touches should subsequently rise significantly. They then extrapolate what MJD could do if he receives say 50% of Taylor's touches on top of what he would normally get.

The question I want to raise is: Is MJD a lock to increase his touches per game as much as people are expecting? Could the touches left behind by the departed Fred Taylor simply be taken by some sort of combination of Greg Jones and and Rashard Jennings? Thus leaving MJD with roughly the same number of touches as he got last season? We know MJD has never been the sole RB for his team, could the coaching staff want to ensure that they don't wear down their diminutive RB by avoiding giving him the type of workload so many people are expecting from him this year?

What sort of touches are you expecting from MJD this year?
MJD doesn't HAVE to take over all (or even half) of Taylor's touches to become a top 10 or top 5 RB.Taylor, over the last 3 years has averaged approximately 14 carries/game and approximately 1 reception/game.

During that same period, MJD has averaged approximately 11 carries/game and approximately 3 receptions/game.

This year, Taylor is gone. MJD is NOT going to assume all of Taylor's 14 carries each game. Greg Jones, Jennings, & other RBs will get some of them. But MJD will clearly be the lead RB this year. And, since he is the best receiving RB on the roster, he will likely pick up Taylor's receptions.

So let's assume MJD gets ONLY the 14 carries/game that Taylor has averaged the last 3 years; that equals 224 carries.

Let's also assume that he picks up 1 reception/game that Taylor averaged, giving him 4/game; that equals 64 catches.

His career ypc is 4.8. That includes some long runs, but also MANY short yardage situations which would lower the overall YPC. I don't believe there is reasonable cause to expect that to drop, but many people do, so let's lower it to 4.5 ypc. With 224 carries (X 4.5), that equals 1013 rushing yards.

His career yards per reception is 9.5. Again, I see no reason for this to drop, but let's leave it at last years (career low) mark of 9.1. At 64 receptions, that equals 582 receiving yards.

That's almost 1600 total yards. But we also have to account for (perhaps) his most important FF stat, TDs.

MJD averages 1 TD, every 16 carries. With 224 carries, that would equal 14 TDs. He also averages 1 TD for every 37 receptions. With 64 receptions that would equal 1.7 TDs. Round it up to 2.

We have 1595 total yards and 16 TDs. That averages out to almost 100 yards & 1 TD/game. A total of 256 FF points (according to FBG scoring, non PPR).

THESE PROJECTIONS AREN'T BASED ON MASSIVE INCREASES IN RUSHES, CARRIES, OR TDS! I predicted MJD with a total of 4 more touches/game (3 rushes + 1 reception). I used a lower YPC and YPR than he has averaged, and I used his career TD ratio. [b]These projections should be considered his floor, and they project to more FF points than Adrian Peterson has ever scored in a single season. That total would also have made MJD the #3 RB the last two years.

So let me ask you, why shouldn't MJD be picked with a top 5 pick?

 
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MJD is being talked about as potentially the #1RB in fantasy football this year. He's subsequently getting drafted higher and higher in drafts, particularly PPR leagues where he's often being taken #1 overall. It's not unusual to read articles by industry experts who are predicting 2000 total yards from him this year. Part of their reasoning is obviously that Fred Taylor is not in Jacksonville anymore and as such MJD's touches should subsequently rise significantly. They then extrapolate what MJD could do if he receives say 50% of Taylor's touches on top of what he would normally get.

The question I want to raise is: Is MJD a lock to increase his touches per game as much as people are expecting? Could the touches left behind by the departed Fred Taylor simply be taken by some sort of combination of Greg Jones and and Rashard Jennings? Thus leaving MJD with roughly the same number of touches as he got last season? We know MJD has never been the sole RB for his team, could the coaching staff want to ensure that they don't wear down their diminutive RB by avoiding giving him the type of workload so many people are expecting from him this year?

What sort of touches are you expecting from MJD this year?
MJD doesn't HAVE to take over all (or even half) of Taylor's touches to become a top 10 or top 5 RB.Taylor, over the last 3 years has averaged approximately 14 carries/game and approximately 1 reception/game.

During that same period, MJD has averaged approximately 11 carries/game and approximately 3 receptions/game.

This year, Taylor is gone. MJD is NOT going to assume all of Taylor's 14 carries each game. Greg Jones, Jennings, & other RBs will get some of them. But MJD will clearly be the lead RB this year. And, since he is the best receiving RB on the roster, he will likely pick up Taylor's receptions.

So let's assume MJD gets ONLY the 14 carries/game that Taylor has averaged the last 3 years; that equals 224 carries.

Let's also assume that he picks up 1 reception/game that Taylor averaged, giving him 4/game; that equals 64 catches.

His career ypc is 4.8. That includes some long runs, but also MANY short yardage situations which would lower the overall YPC. I don't believe there is reasonable cause to expect that to drop, but many people do, so let's lower it to 4.5 ypc. With 224 carries (X 4.5), that equals 1013 rushing yards.

His career yards per reception is 9.5. Again, I see no reason for this to drop, but let's leave it at last years (career low) mark of 9.1. At 64 receptions, that equals 582 receiving yards.

That's almost 1600 total yards. But we also have to account for (perhaps) his most important FF stat, TDs.

MJD averages 1 TD, every 16 carries. With 224 carries, that would equal 14 TDs. He also averages 1 TD for every 37 receptions. With 64 receptions that would equal 1.7 TDs. Round it up to 2.

We have 1595 total yards and 16 TDs. That averages out to almost 100 yards & 1 TD/game. A total of 256 FF points (according to FBG scoring, non PPR).

THESE PROJECTIONS AREN'T BASED ON MASSIVE INCREASES IN RUSHES, CARRIES, OR TDS! I predicted MJD with a total of 4 more touches/game (3 rushes + 1 reception). I used a lower YPC and YPR than he has averaged, and I used his career TD ratio. [b]These projections should be considered his floor, and they project to more FF points than Adrian Peterson has ever scored in a single season. That total would also have made MJD the #3 RB the last two years.

So let me ask you, why shouldn't MJD be picked with a top 5 pick?
What a great article on MJD. I have the second pick in a 10 team non PPR league and will gladly take either of ADP or MJD. Thanks for reassuring me with the numbers that you have posted.
 
We have 1595 total yards and 16 TDs. That averages out to almost 100 yards & 1 TD/game. A total of 256 FF points (according to FBG scoring, non PPR).THESE PROJECTIONS AREN'T BASED ON MASSIVE INCREASES IN RUSHES, CARRIES, OR TDS! I predicted MJD with a total of 4 more touches/game (3 rushes + 1 reception). I used a lower YPC and YPR than he has averaged, and I used his career TD ratio. These projections should be considered his floor, and they project to more FF points than Adrian Peterson has ever scored in a single season. That total would also have made MJD the #3 RB the last two years.So let me ask you, why shouldn't MJD be picked with a top 5 pick?
I don't think there is any question that he is Top 5. But is he #1 over ADP?I have the #1 pick in a 16 man PPR league full of sharks. This is only the second time in the last 15 years of the league that I have had a top 3 pick.This particular question is keeping me up nights. I'd hate to blow my first real chance at an elite pick.
 
We have 1595 total yards and 16 TDs. That averages out to almost 100 yards & 1 TD/game. A total of 256 FF points (according to FBG scoring, non PPR).THESE PROJECTIONS AREN'T BASED ON MASSIVE INCREASES IN RUSHES, CARRIES, OR TDS! I predicted MJD with a total of 4 more touches/game (3 rushes + 1 reception). I used a lower YPC and YPR than he has averaged, and I used his career TD ratio. These projections should be considered his floor, and they project to more FF points than Adrian Peterson has ever scored in a single season. That total would also have made MJD the #3 RB the last two years.So let me ask you, why shouldn't MJD be picked with a top 5 pick?
I don't think there is any question that he is Top 5. But is he #1 over ADP?I have the #1 pick in a 16 man PPR league full of sharks. This is only the second time in the last 15 years of the league that I have had a top 3 pick.This particular question is keeping me up nights. I'd hate to blow my first real chance at an elite pick.
Peterson has averaged 20 receptions a year in his 2 seasons. MJD has never had less than 40 and averages closer to 50 and his role is expected to increase. Peterson has averaged 11.5 TDs per year in his 2 seasons. MJD has averaged 12.7 TDs a year and again his role is expected to increase. Add to that the Jack oline should be vastly improved vs. last year. Sure, Minn also has a great oline but nothing has been done for us to expect it to get much better than it already is.Make your own call, but MJD is clearly the guy for me in PPR.
 
I think Bayhawks covered MJD pretty well so I feel no need to elaborate on that further.This is pretty interesting however GroveDiesel and I think also speaks to the OP questioning where MJD should be ranked.

I find this year extremely interesting. I think there's more uncertainty at the top of theRBs and QBs than ever before. Guys like Portis, LT, Gore, Turner, Parker, MJD, Westbrook, S-Jax, and D-Will all could have huge years but a have some fairly major concerns as well IMO. There's a pretty good mix of older guys that may be fading (or could come back from some injuries and have big seasons) and younger guys that have a great season under their belt but either haven't been THE guy or may have load concerns.
What makes you uncertain about Portis?I am aware of why some doubt the others that you mention here although I disagree with most of those concerns. But I have still not heard any good reason to doubt Portis yet. From anybody.
IMO, there seems to be tons of group think going on in fantasy football this year. I see a lot of very similar rankings despite what I think should be a very turbulant year at the the top of sheets. IMO, the best draft spots are either #1 overall, or near the turn. 2-8 or so is a total tossup with plenty of reasons to question every one of those guys.
Then you mention groupthink. And that is the only explaination I can find for why people are so low on Portis. Unless you or someone else can clue me in here?
Even better, I think this may be the ideal season to go WR/WR in the first two rounds.
Actualy this year in redrafts that I have been in (some non PPR) going WR/WR seems like a pretty popular thing to do. The pendulum has shifted strongly in this direction in reaction to 2007 (record setting passing numbers) and 2008 more RBBC situations than recent years. But I think that is an over-reaction linked to your 1st statement. And most of the doubts about those RB seem unwarranted to me. What other than groupthink is causing that to happen?I do think that this season we are going through a changing of the guard somewhat. This seems to be a popular theme in football publications around right now also. And that may be true. But I think people are writing off some of these proven veteran players too quickly also. An interesting landscape in FF this year.
 
Of all the guys ranked in the top 5 MJD is easily the one that could finish outside the top 10. I honestly cannot believe someone would draft him before ADP. There are so many unknowns with MJD it makes him a risky pick inside the top 5 for me. I have said it before and I got blasted for it but I really dont think he is worth the risk especially at 1. ADP gets his with a crappy qb and crappy wr's. Now if there is some way that sage can put together an average season and keep people from loading the box then you might see a 2000 yd season from him. In regards to Jacksonville when Torry Holt is your #1 then you have major problems in the passing game. I think initially when MJD came out he was a novelty and defenses didnt know how to scheme for him, but as time went on they figure it out. Not saying he is not good but if a team is planning all week to face him then it gets much easier then prepping for a 2 rb scheme.

just my honest opinion
MJD is mainly being taken #! in ppr leagues. He wasn't THAT far behind ADP at all last year in ppr leagues.
Pretty sure he was ahead of Peterson last year.
He was, MJD finished 3rd in RB scoring last year while Peterson was 9th, 15 points behind. This was in a WCOFF PPR league.
So does one year always relate to the next? Should we draft everyone in order of where they finished from 1-200 and see if anything changes?
Of course not, that would be silly. The recent past should have an influence on player evaluation, but the NFL is not a static league so one year can differ very much from the year before. I was merely confirming how MJD and Peterson finished in PPR scoring last year, I was not trying to make the argument MJD should be #1 or anything, although I believe there is a good argument for it. If I get the #1 pick in my PPR league, it's likely to come down to these 2 RB's. I'd be inclined to probably take Peterson 1st at this point just because I think he's a better talent and has more weapons around him to keep defenses honest. Also, the aspect that makes MJD so valuable, in PPR leagues espescially, is his large role in the passing game. While he may get more carries w/out Taylor around, I'm not sure how much more room he has to improve his value in the passing game, he may be close to his ceiling as a reciever.
 
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So what do people think for half ppr with 15 yards per point for receivers?

I really think that Peterson is the only guy with the chances of an incredible, mind-blowing season.

 
I don't think MJD's production will skyrocket and he obviously won't be getting all of Taylor's old touches.

The real difference, IMO, will be the added consistency. Having the same big game ability with almost no chance of the "under 10 carry game" (which he had 5 of last season) takes him to another level.

The only real danger, I think, is the coaching staff deciding that it no longer makes sense to wear down their best playmaker in short yardage situations. If I were coaching the team and a Jones/Jennings GL combo could prove to be effective, I'd rather use them. He's much more valuable in the open field, imo.

There is no evidence the coaching staff is thinking that way (that I know of), but it will always just feel like a possiblity to me.

 
Over the last two seasons MJD has equaled or outproduced ADP (depending on your scoring), while playing in a time share situation, on a team with a weaker offensive line, weaker defense and (at best) comparable QB and WR play. I don't see why that should change now.

 
I don't think MJD's production will skyrocket and he obviously won't be getting all of Taylor's old touches.The real difference, IMO, will be the added consistency. Having the same big game ability with almost no chance of the "under 10 carry game" (which he had 5 of last season) takes him to another level.The only real danger, I think, is the coaching staff deciding that it no longer makes sense to wear down their best playmaker in short yardage situations. If I were coaching the team and a Jones/Jennings GL combo could prove to be effective, I'd rather use them. He's much more valuable in the open field, imo.There is no evidence the coaching staff is thinking that way (that I know of), but it will always just feel like a possiblity to me.
I think MJD was the GL RB because Fred Taylor has always struggled with that based on conversion % in GL situations. And MJD's conversion % is above average IIRC.Of course Fred is not longer there. So there is always the possibility that they will spell MJD in those situations if Jennings is a better option. I don't think it would be Jones or they already would have made that change.
 
i think guys are overanalyzing this.

MJD is very talented and his touches will go up this yr=cha-ching! does he have any more question marks than than anyone other than ADP? and ADP is a workhorse who gets banged up. when is he gonna get hurt?

i still like ADP 1st overall, but i'll take MJD over Turner(tough run schedule, Ryan will throw more), Forte (not as talented as MJD), SJax(injury prone).

in one of my leagues i have 3rd pick. i know ADP is goin #1, and pretty sure Turner is goin #2. i'm all over MJD.

 
I somewhat feel the same way....i dont feel he's a clear cut #1....the first 5 to 6 players being drafted are pretty equal. That's why i traded my #2 overall to #4 along with getting that persons even round selections for earlier picks. I feel confident drafting like Forte or Fitzgerald (ppr league) will be better than MJD...especially getting earlier picks the even rounds.

 
I don't think MJD's production will skyrocket and he obviously won't be getting all of Taylor's old touches.

The real difference, IMO, will be the added consistency. Having the same big game ability with almost no chance of the "under 10 carry game" (which he had 5 of last season) takes him to another level.

The only real danger, I think, is the coaching staff deciding that it no longer makes sense to wear down their best playmaker in short yardage situations. If I were coaching the team and a Jones/Jennings GL combo could prove to be effective, I'd rather use them. He's much more valuable in the open field, imo.

There is no evidence the coaching staff is thinking that way (that I know of), but it will always just feel like a possiblity to me.
I think MJD was the GL RB because Fred Taylor has always struggled with that based on conversion % in GL situations. And MJD's conversion % is above average IIRC.

Of course Fred is not longer there. So there is always the possibility that they will spell MJD in those situations if Jennings is a better option. I don't think it would be Jones or they already would have made that change.
You do not RC. MJD is one of the very best in the NFL at the stripe. He led the league in TD conversion % on goal line runs last season (min 5 attempts) at 88.9% (8 for 9).Apparently ADP didn't even get 5 such attempts last season.

GOAL-LINE RUNNING IN 2008

Running backs who had over 5 carries last year from either the 1 or 2. Stats shown are rushing attempts, scores (it's listed as "TD", but it's actually scores – both TDs and 2-point conversions), and the success rate.

Att TD Pct.

9 8 88.9% Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.

7 6 85.7% DeAngelo Williams, Car.

9 7 77.8% Marion Barber, Dall.

7 5 71.4% Jonathan Stewart, Car.

10 7 70.0% LeRon McClain, Balt.

16 11 68.8% LenDale White, Tenn.

6 4 66.7% Deuce McAllister, N.O.

11 7 63.6% T.J. Duckett, Sea.

8 5 62.5% Dominic Rhodes, Ind.

13 8 61.5% Michael Turner, Atl.

15 9 60.0% Brandon Jacobs, NYG

7 4 57.1% Sammy Morris, N.E.

13 7 53.8% Tim Hightower, Ariz.

8 4 50.0% Kevin Smith, Det.

6 3 50.0% Michael Pittman, Den.

6 3 50.0% Pierre Thomas, N.O.

7 3 42.9% Mewelde Moore, Pitt.

7 3 42.9% Brian Westbrook, Phil.

12 5 41.7% Thomas Jones, NYJ

11 4 36.4% Steve Slaton, Hou.

11 4 36.4% Larry Johnson, K.C.

9 3 33.3% Matt Forte, Chi.

11 3 27.3% Jamal Lewis, Clev.
 
Over the last two seasons MJD has equaled or outproduced ADP (depending on your scoring), while playing in a time share situation, on a team with a weaker offensive line, weaker defense and (at best) comparable QB and WR play. I don't see why that should change now.
2007ADP: 1609 yds, 19 rec, 13 TDMJD: 1175 yds, 40 rec, 9 TD2008ADP: 1885 yds, 21 rec, 10 TDMJD: 1389 yds, 62 rec, 14 TDThey're equal on TDs. MJD has about 60 more receptions, but ADP has almost 1000 more yards from scrimmage. In PPR they are 1a and 1b in whatever order you want IMO. In non-PPR I think ADP is clearly #1.
 
I don't think MJD's production will skyrocket and he obviously won't be getting all of Taylor's old touches.

The real difference, IMO, will be the added consistency. Having the same big game ability with almost no chance of the "under 10 carry game" (which he had 5 of last season) takes him to another level.

The only real danger, I think, is the coaching staff deciding that it no longer makes sense to wear down their best playmaker in short yardage situations. If I were coaching the team and a Jones/Jennings GL combo could prove to be effective, I'd rather use them. He's much more valuable in the open field, imo.

There is no evidence the coaching staff is thinking that way (that I know of), but it will always just feel like a possiblity to me.
I think MJD was the GL RB because Fred Taylor has always struggled with that based on conversion % in GL situations. And MJD's conversion % is above average IIRC.

Of course Fred is not longer there. So there is always the possibility that they will spell MJD in those situations if Jennings is a better option. I don't think it would be Jones or they already would have made that change.
You do not RC. MJD is one of the very best in the NFL at the stripe. He led the league in TD conversion % on goal line runs last season (min 5 attempts) at 88.9% (8 for 9).Apparently ADP didn't even get 5 such attempts last season.

GOAL-LINE RUNNING IN 2008

Running backs who had over 5 carries last year from either the 1 or 2. Stats shown are rushing attempts, scores (it's listed as "TD", but it's actually scores – both TDs and 2-point conversions), and the success rate.

Att TD Pct.

9 8 88.9% Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.

7 6 85.7% DeAngelo Williams, Car.

9 7 77.8% Marion Barber, Dall.

7 5 71.4% Jonathan Stewart, Car.

10 7 70.0% LeRon McClain, Balt.

16 11 68.8% LenDale White, Tenn.

6 4 66.7% Deuce McAllister, N.O.

11 7 63.6% T.J. Duckett, Sea.

8 5 62.5% Dominic Rhodes, Ind.

13 8 61.5% Michael Turner, Atl.

15 9 60.0% Brandon Jacobs, NYG

7 4 57.1% Sammy Morris, N.E.

13 7 53.8% Tim Hightower, Ariz.

8 4 50.0% Kevin Smith, Det.

6 3 50.0% Michael Pittman, Den.

6 3 50.0% Pierre Thomas, N.O.

7 3 42.9% Mewelde Moore, Pitt.

7 3 42.9% Brian Westbrook, Phil.

12 5 41.7% Thomas Jones, NYJ

11 4 36.4% Steve Slaton, Hou.

11 4 36.4% Larry Johnson, K.C.

9 3 33.3% Matt Forte, Chi.

11 3 27.3% Jamal Lewis, Clev.
Thanks for posting this.Pretty hard to bench a guy at the goal line when they produce almost 9 times out of 10...

I mainly just recalled that Fred Taylor in contrast was not very good in these situations.

 
Interesting goal line numbers for MJD. I don't see a ton of JAX games and actually figured MJD was more of the home-run threat type, but in the past two years he only has 5 rushing TDs from outside the opponents' ten yard line. ADP has 14. Could explain why Peterson has so few goal-line TDs - he just runs them in before they get that close. :thumbdown:

 
I believe MJD & Matt Forte are easily the top picks in PPR leagues. It's not quite as wide a margin in non-PPR leagues, but I like both more than Peterson (the receptions don't count, but receiving yards do).

The Jags should've been featuring MJD since his rookie season, but it's somewhat understandable they kept Fred Taylor around (even though I certainly didn't agree with the amount of touches they gave Taylor). MJD has the perfect build for a feature back (like a brick outhouse).

It's amazing what this kid has done on the amount of touches he's had. I believe him & Forte are the best all-around RBs in football (not just FF).

 
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Interesting thread, I love hearing various forms of feedback. There is just something to me that screams MJD does what he does because of the way Jacksonville uses him. The change of pace scenario from the past 3 years really allowed him to not get worn down in games and as the season went on. Also the defense has to adjust tremendously when he is in the game. I just believe that if a defense is just trying to contain him they will be more successful now then in years past. I believe he is talented and very skilled at catching the ball but to me there is just something I dont like when he plans to be the full time back. I think he still has a productive year but again it wouldnt surprise me if he finished outside the top 10.

 
Over the last two seasons MJD has equaled or outproduced ADP (depending on your scoring), while playing in a time share situation, on a team with a weaker offensive line, weaker defense and (at best) comparable QB and WR play. I don't see why that should change now.
2007ADP: 1609 yds, 19 rec, 13 TDMJD: 1175 yds, 40 rec, 9 TD2008ADP: 1885 yds, 21 rec, 10 TDMJD: 1389 yds, 62 rec, 14 TDThey're equal on TDs. MJD has about 60 more receptions, but ADP has almost 1000 more yards from scrimmage. In PPR they are 1a and 1b in whatever order you want IMO. In non-PPR I think ADP is clearly #1.
They have been relatively equal. ADP handled the ball 382 times last year and MJD touched the ball 259 times.Seems like MJD has more opportunity to see an increase in touches than ADP, which means ADP is going to have to find the end zone much more often to keep pace (because I doubt he will get many more touches overall).I'm not saying I take MJD over ADP in any and every format, but I can certainly see the argument in favor of that decision.
 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?

 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?
Because, up until last season, Fred Taylor had been an all world back in his prime.Made no sense for the team to demote Fred in that situation.
 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?
Because, up until last season, Fred Taylor had been an all world back in his prime.Made no sense for the team to demote Fred in that situation.
Why not? If MJD is so good (and I am not disputing that he isnt) why didnt they reverse the situations. I wouldnt call Freds stats "all world". Seems like MJD has out produced him the past 3 years. I am just saying I think the situation or method that they used for MJD helped him tremendously. Freds stats:231 1146 5td 2006223 1202 5td 2007
 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?
Because, up until last season, Fred Taylor had been an all world back in his prime.Made no sense for the team to demote Fred in that situation.
Why not? If MJD is so good (and I am not disputing that he isnt) why didnt they reverse the situations. I wouldnt call Freds stats "all world". Seems like MJD has out produced him the past 3 years. I am just saying I think the situation or method that they used for MJD helped him tremendously. Freds stats:231 1146 5td 2006223 1202 5td 2007
Why does it seem that way to you? When you look at their statistics, why does it make you say, "the system [way] they used Drew in helped him tremendously to perform this way?"
 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?
Because, up until last season, Fred Taylor had been an all world back in his prime.Made no sense for the team to demote Fred in that situation.
Why not? If MJD is so good (and I am not disputing that he isnt) why didnt they reverse the situations. I wouldnt call Freds stats "all world". Seems like MJD has out produced him the past 3 years. I am just saying I think the situation or method that they used for MJD helped him tremendously. Freds stats:

231 1146 5td 2006 5.0 YPC

223 1202 5td 2007 5.4 YPC
You forgot two very relevant numbers (YPC in bold) and NINE. In 2006 why on earth would Del Rio bench his nine year veteran RB who is still performing at a very high level for an unproven rookie?In 2007 why on earth would Del Rio bench his ten year veteran RB coming off a 5.0 YPC season for a second year player who apparently had carved out a very nice niche in the passing, short yardage games & return games?

In 2008 Fred Taylor finally fell off, he had a career low 143 carries (excluding his injured seasons), MJDs role increased (career highs in carries and receptions).

Seems like a perfectly logical progression.

 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?
Because, up until last season, Fred Taylor had been an all world back in his prime.Made no sense for the team to demote Fred in that situation.
Why not? If MJD is so good (and I am not disputing that he isnt) why didnt they reverse the situations. I wouldnt call Freds stats "all world". Seems like MJD has out produced him the past 3 years. I am just saying I think the situation or method that they used for MJD helped him tremendously. Freds stats:231 1146 5td 2006223 1202 5td 2007
Why does it seem that way to you? When you look at their statistics, why does it make you say, "the system [way] they used Drew in helped him tremendously to perform this way?"
As I said earlier, as an extreme change of pace back. It makes it hard for a defense to make such a dramatic switch in the middle of a quarter. It may sound nutty but that just the way it appears to me. If I am wrong at the end of the year I will be more then happy to admit it. I am not saying he will not have a good year, but I certainly dont think it is a slam dunk by any stretch. I honestly dont understand why dwill is not going higher or at least closer to MJD.
 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?
Because, up until last season, Fred Taylor had been an all world back in his prime.Made no sense for the team to demote Fred in that situation.
Why not? If MJD is so good (and I am not disputing that he isnt) why didnt they reverse the situations. I wouldnt call Freds stats "all world". Seems like MJD has out produced him the past 3 years. I am just saying I think the situation or method that they used for MJD helped him tremendously. Freds stats:

231 1146 5td 2006

223 1202 5td 2007
Why does it seem that way to you? When you look at their statistics, why does it make you say, "the system [way] they used Drew in helped him tremendously to perform this way?"
As I said earlier, as an extreme change of pace back. It makes it hard for a defense to make such a dramatic switch in the middle of a quarter. It may sound nutty but that just the way it appears to me. If I am wrong at the end of the year I will be more then happy to admit it. I am not saying he will not have a good year, but I certainly dont think it is a slam dunk by any stretch. I honestly dont understand why dwill is not going higher or at least closer to MJD.
MJD doesn't have to contend with Jonathan Stewart (although if Stew doesn't heal up quick you can expect DWill to keep inching up draft boards).
 
I honestly dont know the answer to this question but did MJD ever start the past couple of years over Fred Taylor? If not, why not?
Because, up until last season, Fred Taylor had been an all world back in his prime.Made no sense for the team to demote Fred in that situation.
Why not? If MJD is so good (and I am not disputing that he isnt) why didnt they reverse the situations. I wouldnt call Freds stats "all world". Seems like MJD has out produced him the past 3 years. I am just saying I think the situation or method that they used for MJD helped him tremendously. Freds stats:

231 1146 5td 2006 5.0 YPC

223 1202 5td 2007 5.4 YPC
You forgot two very relevant numbers (YPC in bold) and NINE. In 2006 why on earth would Del Rio bench his nine year veteran RB who is still performing at a very high level for an unproven rookie?

In 2007 why on earth would Del Rio bench his ten year veteran RB coming off a 5.0 YPC season for a second year player who apparently had carved out a very nice niche in the passing, short yardage games & return games?

In 2008 Fred Taylor finally fell off, he had a career low 143 carries (excluding his injured seasons), MJDs role increased (career highs in carries and receptions).

Seems like a perfectly logical progression.
I think to a degree that is the point I am trying to make. That he found a niche and produces within those confines. Not saying he cant handle a full load but that he just hasnt done it .......yet. I would draft him at 5 (if he fell) but it would be after a intense internal debate over Dwill. (Obviously since I am a panther fan and for the fact that he blow up last year and nothing changed)
 

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