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My Case for MJD at #1 Overall (1 Viewer)

JMJ

JMJ

Footballguy
Adrian Peterson played in all 16 games last year, did not lose any of his starting OLineman for any long period of time, and blew up! He had 1,760 rushing yards and won the rushing title. MJD on the other hand, he also played in all 16 games, but he lost 3 of his starting 5 offensive lineman for the season all before week 5 and shared carries with Fred Taylor. Even with all that said, in my standard scoring league (Non PPR), Peterson only outscored MJD by 30 points over the course of the season. That is 1.875 points per week so less than 2 points per game!

MJD had 1,389 total yards last year on 259 touches (197 carries, 62 catches). 14 TDs

Peterson had 1,885 total yards last year on 384 touches (363 carries, 21 catches). 10 TDs

I don't think Peterson will get 363 carries again this year. 1. They don't want to run the guy into the ground. That is just crazy. 2. Favre is in town and no more Tavaris Jackson/Gus Ferrotte. I'm sure they will throw the ball some more. I do think Peterson will get more than 10 TDs this year though. That is a ton of yards for only 10 TDs.

MJD will finally be the unquestioned starter in JAX. I want to do all of this using minimums so lets say that Drew will probably get, at minimum, half of the carries that Fred Taylor got last year (143) so lets add 72 carries to his total instantly and say he'll get 269 carries this year. He also had 62 catches which will EASILY become 70-75 since Taylor had 16. Lets use 72.5 catches. Using his same averages from last year (4.2 per carry - and 9.1 per catch) which should go up since he has his starting OLine back and an easy schedule (more on that later), his total yards become 1,790 which is only 95 yards fewer than AP's total from last year. If his YPC and REC go up, he could pass him in total yards. And again, this is only assuming he gets 50% of the carries Taylor got last year. He'll probably get more than that but I wanted to play safe.

As for their schedules, both guys have easy schedules this year but Peterson has to play Baltimore and Pittsburgh back-to-back at one point in the year (weeks 6 and 7), along with Green Bay twice and Chicago once. Not world beaters (GB & CHI), but somewhat tough matchups for a RB.

MJD on the other hand has a cakewalk schedule. 2nd easiest amongst RBs in my opinion:

at Indianapolis

Arizona

at Houston

Tennessee

Seattle

St. Louis

bye

at Tennessee

Kansas City

at NY Jets

Buffalo

at San Francisco

Houston

Miami

Indianapolis

at New England

Tennessee no longer has Albert Haynesworth so they are not the run-stopping monsters they used to be. His hardest games all season are against the NY Jets and the New England Patriots. Does anyone not see MJD running (and catching) wild all over this schedule?

Am I crazy for considering MJD over Adrian Peterson? :shrug:

 
I wouldn't say you are crazy, but maybe just very gutsy. First off, MJD has an inferior line compared to ADP regardless of whether everyone is healthy. Also, I would not expect Garrard to have as down of a year as he had last year, plus with Holt and now Williamson (maybe) he is showing that he finally gets it, more drives will end in aerial TDs than last year.

MJD is very special, but I am hesitant about RBs whose yardage is so dependent on receiving versus running. I am thinking more Westbrook than LT (both get theirs in the passing game, but Westy is just ordinary if you do not count his receiving yards). Now, with that said, my prime example is a guy who bucked the trend in Westy, but you literally have to go back to Roger Craig to find a RB that was a consensus Top 3 guy after Westy...it can be done (hey it seems as though we undervalue Westy EVERY year), just not sure MJD can keep up that pace.

 
Not to be a hater...but isn't there a #1 draft pick thread that is posted where all #1 picks can discuss their options?

This like the 3rd thread on the first couple pages about who to take a #1

 
Here are the questions I ask myself about MJD:

1) Is the OLine finally healthy?

2) Is there enough of a passing game to keep 8 men out of the box?

3) Can MJD sustain his playing style with a heavier workload?

4) Will he still be involved heavily in the passing game?

Here is what I've seen so far:

1) OL looks healthier, but are not playing very well from what I've seen in the preseason. A little concerning, BUT it is just preseason.

2) Williamson is looking good, Holt is old, but still serviceable, they brought Wilford in as a TE, pasing game should be ok.

3) Guys YPC has dropped each season, as his workload increased. I see his YPC staying about the same as last year, decent, but not spectacular.

4) Last year the receptions were so high because they had no WRs at all. This year he doesn't get 60 catches.

Here are my projections for MJD.

251 rushes, 4.2 YPC, 1054 yards, 13 TD

47 rec, 9.3 YPR, 437 yards, 3 TD

Total: 1491 yards, 16 TD

Top-5 likely finish IMO, but not #1 overall.

 
Deuce said:
Not to be a hater...but isn't there a #1 draft pick thread that is posted where all #1 picks can discuss their options?This like the 3rd thread on the first couple pages about who to take a #1
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Great question and serious answer:The only people who open that thread are people with the #1 overall pick. Just like I don't open the "6th pick" thread. I wanted more opinions.
 
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.

 
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Totally disagree on Forte. I think Forte is the most likely guy who was top 10 last season not to be top 10 this year. But that's off topic...
 
Just Win Baby said:
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Totally disagree on Forte. I think Forte is the most likely guy who was top 10 last season not to be top 10 this year. But that's off topic...
Click to expand...
I think with Cutler in the mix throwing balls 60+ yards on the run like he did this past weekend it will keep safeties out of the box a lot more often this year than they were with Kyle Orton behind center last year.Barring injury I can't see how Forte regresses.
 
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.You can't win a fantasy league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose one. Are you sure you're going to be able to knuckle up and take the gamble?
 
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.
Click to expand...
I'm wondering, can anyone explain WHY they think MJD is poised to have a bigger year? I'm looking for more than "he's just exciting to watch" or "Fred Taylor is gone".
 
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.You can't win a fantasy league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose one. Are you sure you're going to be able to knuckle up and take the gamble?
Click to expand...
1st of all the bolded statement is totally false IMO. No single pick wins or looses a draft. I don't care how early it is.2nd of all, yes I wouldn't hesitate one bit to take MJD #1 overall. Peterson is a safe pick, but so is MJD.

 
switz said:
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.
Click to expand...
I'm wondering, can anyone explain WHY they think MJD is poised to have a bigger year? I'm looking for more than "he's just exciting to watch" or "Fred Taylor is gone".
Click to expand...
Are you serious? Did you read my opening post? :shrug:
 
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Peterson doesn't represent as much upside as everyone claims. It's true that he's easily the most gifted runner in the game today, but historically all of the OMGZuh!!1!!21!! seasons that have been put up have been the result of (a) obscene TD totals, (b) obscene receiving totals, or © both. For instance, of the top 20 fantasy RB finishes since 2002, 17 of them have featured either 400 receiving yards, 20 TDs, or both. The exceptions? Ricky Williams '02 (1860 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs), Jamal Lewis (2060 rushing, 205 receiving, 14 TDs), and Clinton Portis '02 (1500 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs). Two of the three seasons fell shy of the 400 yard mark and the 20 TD mark, but were remarkably close to both... and the third season was a 2000 yard rushing, 14 TD campaign (and only ranked 12th out of the 20). Adrian Peterson has never topped 13 TDs, and while he managed 268 receiving yards as a rookie, it was on 19 receptions, and his 14+ ypc that season is unsustainable for an RB (Marshall Faulk, arguably the best receiving RB of all time, never topped 12 ypc).So, while Peterson could in fact break the single season rushing record, he probably won't have an all-time great fantasy season unless he does. His upside is limited by his lack of TDs and his low receiving totals. MJD, on the other hand, has never had fewer than 400 receiving yards in his career, and is perhaps the biggest TD-scoring machine in the league now that Tomlinson appears to be declining. I'd argue that Jones-Drew, not Peterson, is the one with all the fantasy upside here, while Peterson represents the guy with the least DOWNSIDE.
 
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.You can't win a fantasy league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose one. Are you sure you're going to be able to knuckle up and take the gamble?
Click to expand...
Have you tried trading down to 1.02?
 
switz said:
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.
Click to expand...
I'm wondering, can anyone explain WHY they think MJD is poised to have a bigger year? I'm looking for more than "he's just exciting to watch" or "Fred Taylor is gone".
Click to expand...
The reasons have been covered in many threads so I'll just give the cliff's notes:He ranked as RB 8, 13 and 9 the past 3 years even while splitting touches with Taylor. So he's already proven to be a consistent RB1. Oh and that is under standard scoring, not PPR where his value will only rise further.

His oline was decimated last year and should be vastly improved.

He is in line for more touches now that Taylor is gone. I don't even care about debating how many more that is. It's not all that important to the argument IMO. Nobody in their right mind can argue that he will not see more touches so long as he isn't injured.

 
SSOG said:
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Peterson doesn't represent as much upside as everyone claims. It's true that he's easily the most gifted runner in the game today, but historically all of the OMGZuh!!1!!21!! seasons that have been put up have been the result of (a) obscene TD totals, (b) obscene receiving totals, or © both. For instance, of the top 20 fantasy RB finishes since 2002, 17 of them have featured either 400 receiving yards, 20 TDs, or both. The exceptions? Ricky Williams '02 (1860 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs), Jamal Lewis (2060 rushing, 205 receiving, 14 TDs), and Clinton Portis '02 (1500 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs). Two of the three seasons fell shy of the 400 yard mark and the 20 TD mark, but were remarkably close to both... and the third season was a 2000 yard rushing, 14 TD campaign (and only ranked 12th out of the 20). Adrian Peterson has never topped 13 TDs, and while he managed 268 receiving yards as a rookie, it was on 19 receptions, and his 14+ ypc that season is unsustainable for an RB (Marshall Faulk, arguably the best receiving RB of all time, never topped 12 ypc).So, while Peterson could in fact break the single season rushing record, he probably won't have an all-time great fantasy season unless he does. His upside is limited by his lack of TDs and his low receiving totals. MJD, on the other hand, has never had fewer than 400 receiving yards in his career, and is perhaps the biggest TD-scoring machine in the league now that Tomlinson appears to be declining. I'd argue that Jones-Drew, not Peterson, is the one with all the fantasy upside here, while Peterson represents the guy with the least DOWNSIDE.
Click to expand...
You make some good points, but come on. Saying Peterson has never topped 13 TDs is disingenuous at best and careless at worst. The dude has played all of two seasons! Are you really using the word "never" for a guy who began his career in 2007?Also, I agree that Peterson has the least downside, but I think he also has the most upside ... which is why he's the no-brainer No. 1. I don't think people quite understand yet what the addition of Percy Harvin and the subtraction of Tarvaris Jackson will do to open up this offense.

 
Not sure why MJD wouldn't be a serious consideration at #1. He catches, he's the main back (not even a significant backup), he's on a good team and the OL is improving.

Throw in a nice schedule and he'd be my pick in a PPR at #1. Those catches (and the accompanying yards) can really help make up for a poor game. I like the fact that a 17-58 game can be complemented with five or six catches for another 30+ yards.

 
JMJ said:
switz said:
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.
Click to expand...
I'm wondering, can anyone explain WHY they think MJD is poised to have a bigger year? I'm looking for more than "he's just exciting to watch" or "Fred Taylor is gone".
Click to expand...
Are you serious? Did you read my opening post? :nerd:
Click to expand...
Thanks for the snarky emoticon... No I hadn't seen your initial post, or should I say hadn't read it thoroughly... I disagree with quite a bit of it though after reading it.I think it would be fair to think that Peterson will get nearly as many carries as last season. Why not? He played 16 games with that load, he's their best weapon, running should be easier with Favre behind center. Even if his carries drop slightly, his YPC should go up, simply because TJ isn't the QB anymore. So I don't think his yardage drops at all. His TDs have nowhere to go but up.

Second, I don't think MJD maintains the number of receptions as you suggest form last season. They had no WRs last year, this year they do. The OL was horrible, and the QB dumped off a ton last year, I don't think that happens as much this year. I already posted my projections, so you can see where we differ.

After reading your post, I appreciate you did put more into it than many of the MJD projections I've seen. :goodposting:

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Not sure why MJD wouldn't be a serious consideration at #1. He catches, he's the main back (not even a significant backup), he's on a good team and the OL is improving. Throw in a nice schedule and he'd be my pick in a PPR at #1. Those catches (and the accompanying yards) can really help make up for a poor game. I like the fact that a 17-58 game can be complemented with five or six catches for another 30+ yards.
Click to expand...
If I were in a PPR I wouldn't even be making this thread. He'd be my #1 overall pick without thinking twice about it. I don't play in a PPR though and I'm still considering taking him...
 
jurb26 said:
switz said:
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.
Click to expand...
I'm wondering, can anyone explain WHY they think MJD is poised to have a bigger year? I'm looking for more than "he's just exciting to watch" or "Fred Taylor is gone".
Click to expand...
The reasons have been covered in many threads so I'll just give the cliff's notes:He ranked as RB 8, 13 and 9 the past 3 years even while splitting touches with Taylor. So he's already proven to be a consistent RB1. Oh and that is under standard scoring, not PPR where his value will only rise further.

His oline was decimated last year and should be vastly improved.

He is in line for more touches now that Taylor is gone. I don't even care about debating how many more that is. It's not all that important to the argument IMO. Nobody in their right mind can argue that he will not see more touches so long as he isn't injured.
Click to expand...
FYI I was reading that as bigger year than AP, not just bigger year than '08. I agree his output will increase, I just don't see it surpassing AP. :goodposting:
 
switz said:
JMJ said:
switz said:
JMJ said:
jurb26 said:
I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.
Click to expand...
See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.
Click to expand...
I'm wondering, can anyone explain WHY they think MJD is poised to have a bigger year? I'm looking for more than "he's just exciting to watch" or "Fred Taylor is gone".
Click to expand...
Are you serious? Did you read my opening post? :lmao:
Click to expand...
Thanks for the snarky emoticon... No I hadn't seen your initial post, or should I say hadn't read it thoroughly... I disagree with quite a bit of it though after reading it.I think it would be fair to think that Peterson will get nearly as many carries as last season. Why not? He played 16 games with that load, he's their best weapon, running should be easier with Favre behind center. Even if his carries drop slightly, his YPC should go up, simply because TJ isn't the QB anymore. So I don't think his yardage drops at all. His TDs have nowhere to go but up.

Second, I don't think MJD maintains the number of receptions as you suggest form last season. They had no WRs last year, this year they do. The OL was horrible, and the QB dumped off a ton last year, I don't think that happens as much this year. I already posted my projections, so you can see where we differ.

After reading your post, I appreciate you did put more into it than many of the MJD projections I've seen. :lmao:
Click to expand...
All is good brother.I agree that Peterson's TDs should go up. Said so myself in the opening post. Regarding MJD's receptions however, I don't see why you expect they'd go down.

He had 46 receptions in 2006, 40 receptions in 2007, and then 62 receptions in 2008. However, he played a lot more in 2008 then he did in 2006 and 2007. In 2006 he had 166 carries, in 2007 he had 167 carries, but he had 197 carries in 2008. You can say that his spike in receptions was due to lack of receivers and/or a capable OLine, and you may be right on some levels, but I attribute it more to him simply being on the field more often and JAX making him a bigger part of their offense (hence the spike in carries).

 
Fear & Loathing said:
You make some good points, but come on. Saying Peterson has never topped 13 TDs is disingenuous at best and careless at worst. The dude has played all of two seasons! Are you really using the word "never" for a guy who began his career in 2007?

Also, I agree that Peterson has the least downside, but I think he also has the most upside ... which is why he's the no-brainer No. 1. I don't think people quite understand yet what the addition of Percy Harvin and the subtraction of Tarvaris Jackson will do to open up this offense.
Click to expand...
It's neither disingenuous nor careless. Over the past two seasons, Peterson has 27 carries inside the 10... and Chester Taylor has 26. Both backs have been equally effective (and neither back has really demonstrated an MJD-like nose for the end zone). Chester Taylor actually has MORE carries inside the 5 than Peterson over that span, and Peterson's 12 carries inside the 5 since 2007 rank him tied for 37th in the NFL with... wait for it... Pierre Thomas and LaMont Jordan, just behind Dominic Rhodes and Reggie Bush. I don't think it's the slightest bit disingenuous to question whether Peterson is a 20-TD back when he hasn't even secured goal-line duties yet. When I say he's "never" had more than 13 TDs, what I'm really saying is that he has yet to show that he's going to be a Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, or even Maurice Jones-Drew- a guy who is option 1, 2, and 3 in the red zone (and option 5, too, for good measure).
JMJ said:
You can't win a fantasy league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose one. Are you sure you're going to be able to knuckle up and take the gamble?
Click to expand...
Off topic, but this is the stupidest axiom in fantasy football. You can absolutely win your league in round 1. Tomlinson in 2006 had 270 VBD. QB6, RB8, RB9, WR13, WR14, and TE5 *COMBINED* had a VBD of 271. In 2006, LaDanian Tomlinson did as much to help you win your league as drafting Jon Kitna, Rudi Johnson, MJD, Darrell Jackson, Marques Colston, and Chris Cooley COMBINED.Also, in any given year, 50% of first round draft picks tend to bust, so you most certainly can NOT lose your league in the first round- worst case scenario is you're in exactly the same boat as half the league.

 
Fear & Loathing said:
SSOG said:
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Peterson doesn't represent as much upside as everyone claims. It's true that he's easily the most gifted runner in the game today, but historically all of the OMGZuh!!1!!21!! seasons that have been put up have been the result of (a) obscene TD totals, (b) obscene receiving totals, or © both. For instance, of the top 20 fantasy RB finishes since 2002, 17 of them have featured either 400 receiving yards, 20 TDs, or both. The exceptions? Ricky Williams '02 (1860 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs), Jamal Lewis (2060 rushing, 205 receiving, 14 TDs), and Clinton Portis '02 (1500 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs). Two of the three seasons fell shy of the 400 yard mark and the 20 TD mark, but were remarkably close to both... and the third season was a 2000 yard rushing, 14 TD campaign (and only ranked 12th out of the 20). Adrian Peterson has never topped 13 TDs, and while he managed 268 receiving yards as a rookie, it was on 19 receptions, and his 14+ ypc that season is unsustainable for an RB (Marshall Faulk, arguably the best receiving RB of all time, never topped 12 ypc).So, while Peterson could in fact break the single season rushing record, he probably won't have an all-time great fantasy season unless he does. His upside is limited by his lack of TDs and his low receiving totals. MJD, on the other hand, has never had fewer than 400 receiving yards in his career, and is perhaps the biggest TD-scoring machine in the league now that Tomlinson appears to be declining. I'd argue that Jones-Drew, not Peterson, is the one with all the fantasy upside here, while Peterson represents the guy with the least DOWNSIDE.
Click to expand...
You make some good points, but come on. Saying Peterson has never topped 13 TDs is disingenuous at best and careless at worst. The dude has played all of two seasons! Are you really using the word "never" for a guy who began his career in 2007?Also, I agree that Peterson has the least downside, but I think he also has the most upside ... which is why he's the no-brainer No. 1. I don't think people quite understand yet what the addition of Percy Harvin and the subtraction of Tarvaris Jackson will do to open up this offense.
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You're wrong about the bolded, at least as far as your wording goes. It's not disingenuous at all; if you wanted to argue careless, I'd disagree with you, but that is more defendable.How about this: ADP has never rushed for more than 15 TDs, and that includes his college career, where (typically) stud RBs have been able to acrue higher TD numbers? Would that be more credible, since it covers 5 years, and not just 2?

I hadn't even thought about what SSOG presented in his post before, but I agree with him. Unless ADP drastically improves on his receptions or his TD totals, he'll be hard pressed to be the #1 FF RB this year.

 
JMJ said:
switz said:
Thanks for the snarky emoticon... No I hadn't seen your initial post, or should I say hadn't read it thoroughly... I disagree with quite a bit of it though after reading it.I think it would be fair to think that Peterson will get nearly as many carries as last season. Why not? He played 16 games with that load, he's their best weapon, running should be easier with Favre behind center. Even if his carries drop slightly, his YPC should go up, simply because TJ isn't the QB anymore. So I don't think his yardage drops at all. His TDs have nowhere to go but up.Second, I don't think MJD maintains the number of receptions as you suggest form last season. They had no WRs last year, this year they do. The OL was horrible, and the QB dumped off a ton last year, I don't think that happens as much this year. I already posted my projections, so you can see where we differ.After reading your post, I appreciate you did put more into it than many of the MJD projections I've seen. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
All is good brother.I agree that Peterson's TDs should go up. Said so myself in the opening post. Regarding MJD's receptions however, I don't see why you expect they'd go down. He had 46 receptions in 2006, 40 receptions in 2007, and then 62 receptions in 2008. However, he played a lot more in 2008 then he did in 2006 and 2007. In 2006 he had 166 carries, in 2007 he had 167 carries, but he had 197 carries in 2008. You can say that his spike in receptions was due to lack of receivers and/or a capable OLine, and you may be right on some levels, but I attribute it more to him simply being on the field more often and JAX making him a bigger part of their offense (hence the spike in carries).
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Don't forget the coaches have been lining up MJD all over for the quick pass (ie: long handoff, but still a point in PPR) in order to minimize the number of times he is tackled by 300lb+ linemen.
 
SSOG said:
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Peterson doesn't represent as much upside as everyone claims. It's true that he's easily the most gifted runner in the game today, but historically all of the OMGZuh!!1!!21!! seasons that have been put up have been the result of (a) obscene TD totals, (b) obscene receiving totals, or © both. For instance, of the top 20 fantasy RB finishes since 2002, 17 of them have featured either 400 receiving yards, 20 TDs, or both. The exceptions? Ricky Williams '02 (1860 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs), Jamal Lewis (2060 rushing, 205 receiving, 14 TDs), and Clinton Portis '02 (1500 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs). Two of the three seasons fell shy of the 400 yard mark and the 20 TD mark, but were remarkably close to both... and the third season was a 2000 yard rushing, 14 TD campaign (and only ranked 12th out of the 20). Adrian Peterson has never topped 13 TDs, and while he managed 268 receiving yards as a rookie, it was on 19 receptions, and his 14+ ypc that season is unsustainable for an RB (Marshall Faulk, arguably the best receiving RB of all time, never topped 12 ypc).So, while Peterson could in fact break the single season rushing record, he probably won't have an all-time great fantasy season unless he does. His upside is limited by his lack of TDs and his low receiving totals. MJD, on the other hand, has never had fewer than 400 receiving yards in his career, and is perhaps the biggest TD-scoring machine in the league now that Tomlinson appears to be declining. I'd argue that Jones-Drew, not Peterson, is the one with all the fantasy upside here, while Peterson represents the guy with the least DOWNSIDE.
Click to expand...
And with this convincing post, SSOG has just caused me to bump ADP down my rankings to #3. Great stuff, SSOG.
 
Bayhawks said:
Fear & Loathing said:
SSOG said:
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Peterson doesn't represent as much upside as everyone claims. It's true that he's easily the most gifted runner in the game today, but historically all of the OMGZuh!!1!!21!! seasons that have been put up have been the result of (a) obscene TD totals, (b) obscene receiving totals, or © both. For instance, of the top 20 fantasy RB finishes since 2002, 17 of them have featured either 400 receiving yards, 20 TDs, or both. The exceptions? Ricky Williams '02 (1860 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs), Jamal Lewis (2060 rushing, 205 receiving, 14 TDs), and Clinton Portis '02 (1500 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs). Two of the three seasons fell shy of the 400 yard mark and the 20 TD mark, but were remarkably close to both... and the third season was a 2000 yard rushing, 14 TD campaign (and only ranked 12th out of the 20). Adrian Peterson has never topped 13 TDs, and while he managed 268 receiving yards as a rookie, it was on 19 receptions, and his 14+ ypc that season is unsustainable for an RB (Marshall Faulk, arguably the best receiving RB of all time, never topped 12 ypc).So, while Peterson could in fact break the single season rushing record, he probably won't have an all-time great fantasy season unless he does. His upside is limited by his lack of TDs and his low receiving totals. MJD, on the other hand, has never had fewer than 400 receiving yards in his career, and is perhaps the biggest TD-scoring machine in the league now that Tomlinson appears to be declining. I'd argue that Jones-Drew, not Peterson, is the one with all the fantasy upside here, while Peterson represents the guy with the least DOWNSIDE.
Click to expand...
You make some good points, but come on. Saying Peterson has never topped 13 TDs is disingenuous at best and careless at worst. The dude has played all of two seasons! Are you really using the word "never" for a guy who began his career in 2007?Also, I agree that Peterson has the least downside, but I think he also has the most upside ... which is why he's the no-brainer No. 1. I don't think people quite understand yet what the addition of Percy Harvin and the subtraction of Tarvaris Jackson will do to open up this offense.
Click to expand...
You're wrong about the bolded, at least as far as your wording goes. It's not disingenuous at all; if you wanted to argue careless, I'd disagree with you, but that is more defendable.How about this: ADP has never rushed for more than 15 TDs, and that includes his college career, where (typically) stud RBs have been able to acrue higher TD numbers? Would that be more credible, since it covers 5 years, and not just 2?

I hadn't even thought about what SSOG presented in his post before, but I agree with him. Unless ADP drastically improves on his receptions or his TD totals, he'll be hard pressed to be the #1 FF RB this year.
Click to expand...
We'll have to agree to disagree. Using the word "never" for a player who has only been in the league 2 years is definitely disingenuous. It's like saying don't draft Darren McFadden as your RB2 because he's never had a 1,000-yard season. Or don't draft Greg Olsen because he's never broken 60 receptions or 600 yards.And adding NCAA stats to the total isn't credible at all. Should we chalk up 25 TDs for Ray Rice this year? Or project Reggie Bush's USC numbers onto his fantasy production this year.

 
Fear & Loathing said:
SSOG said:
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Peterson doesn't represent as much upside as everyone claims. It's true that he's easily the most gifted runner in the game today, but historically all of the OMGZuh!!1!!21!! seasons that have been put up have been the result of (a) obscene TD totals, (b) obscene receiving totals, or © both. For instance, of the top 20 fantasy RB finishes since 2002, 17 of them have featured either 400 receiving yards, 20 TDs, or both. The exceptions? Ricky Williams '02 (1860 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs), Jamal Lewis (2060 rushing, 205 receiving, 14 TDs), and Clinton Portis '02 (1500 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs). Two of the three seasons fell shy of the 400 yard mark and the 20 TD mark, but were remarkably close to both... and the third season was a 2000 yard rushing, 14 TD campaign (and only ranked 12th out of the 20). Adrian Peterson has never topped 13 TDs, and while he managed 268 receiving yards as a rookie, it was on 19 receptions, and his 14+ ypc that season is unsustainable for an RB (Marshall Faulk, arguably the best receiving RB of all time, never topped 12 ypc).So, while Peterson could in fact break the single season rushing record, he probably won't have an all-time great fantasy season unless he does. His upside is limited by his lack of TDs and his low receiving totals. MJD, on the other hand, has never had fewer than 400 receiving yards in his career, and is perhaps the biggest TD-scoring machine in the league now that Tomlinson appears to be declining. I'd argue that Jones-Drew, not Peterson, is the one with all the fantasy upside here, while Peterson represents the guy with the least DOWNSIDE.
Click to expand...
You make some good points, but come on. Saying Peterson has never topped 13 TDs is disingenuous at best and careless at worst. The dude has played all of two seasons! Are you really using the word "never" for a guy who began his career in 2007?
Click to expand...
Yet MJD has managed to do it 2 times in 3 years in a time share.
 
Fear & Loathing said:
Bayhawks said:
Fear & Loathing said:
SSOG said:
LHUCKS said:
He and Forte are the safest plays for top 5 numbers, but hard to take him over the upside that Peterson represents...guy could break the single season rushing record.
Click to expand...
Peterson doesn't represent as much upside as everyone claims. It's true that he's easily the most gifted runner in the game today, but historically all of the OMGZuh!!1!!21!! seasons that have been put up have been the result of (a) obscene TD totals, (b) obscene receiving totals, or © both. For instance, of the top 20 fantasy RB finishes since 2002, 17 of them have featured either 400 receiving yards, 20 TDs, or both. The exceptions? Ricky Williams '02 (1860 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs), Jamal Lewis (2060 rushing, 205 receiving, 14 TDs), and Clinton Portis '02 (1500 rushing, 360 receiving, 17 TDs). Two of the three seasons fell shy of the 400 yard mark and the 20 TD mark, but were remarkably close to both... and the third season was a 2000 yard rushing, 14 TD campaign (and only ranked 12th out of the 20). Adrian Peterson has never topped 13 TDs, and while he managed 268 receiving yards as a rookie, it was on 19 receptions, and his 14+ ypc that season is unsustainable for an RB (Marshall Faulk, arguably the best receiving RB of all time, never topped 12 ypc).So, while Peterson could in fact break the single season rushing record, he probably won't have an all-time great fantasy season unless he does. His upside is limited by his lack of TDs and his low receiving totals. MJD, on the other hand, has never had fewer than 400 receiving yards in his career, and is perhaps the biggest TD-scoring machine in the league now that Tomlinson appears to be declining. I'd argue that Jones-Drew, not Peterson, is the one with all the fantasy upside here, while Peterson represents the guy with the least DOWNSIDE.
Click to expand...
You make some good points, but come on. Saying Peterson has never topped 13 TDs is disingenuous at best and careless at worst. The dude has played all of two seasons! Are you really using the word "never" for a guy who began his career in 2007?Also, I agree that Peterson has the least downside, but I think he also has the most upside ... which is why he's the no-brainer No. 1. I don't think people quite understand yet what the addition of Percy Harvin and the subtraction of Tarvaris Jackson will do to open up this offense.
Click to expand...
You're wrong about the bolded, at least as far as your wording goes. It's not disingenuous at all; if you wanted to argue careless, I'd disagree with you, but that is more defendable.How about this: ADP has never rushed for more than 15 TDs, and that includes his college career, where (typically) stud RBs have been able to acrue higher TD numbers? Would that be more credible, since it covers 5 years, and not just 2?

I hadn't even thought about what SSOG presented in his post before, but I agree with him. Unless ADP drastically improves on his receptions or his TD totals, he'll be hard pressed to be the #1 FF RB this year.
Click to expand...
We'll have to agree to disagree. Using the word "never" for a player who has only been in the league 2 years is definitely disingenuous. It's like saying don't draft Darren McFadden as your RB2 because he's never had a 1,000-yard season. Or don't draft Greg Olsen because he's never broken 60 receptions or 600 yards.And adding NCAA stats to the total isn't credible at all. Should we chalk up 25 TDs for Ray Rice this year? Or project Reggie Bush's USC numbers onto his fantasy production this year.
Click to expand...
From dictionary.com: disingenuous- 1.Not straightforward or candid; insincere or calculating

What SSOG posted was definitely straightforward. It was definitely candid, and I'm pretty sure he was sincere. So we can agree to disagree, but you are wrong.

As to the point of adding NCAA stats, you're the one that said we can't say Peterson has never scored more than 13 TDs, he's only played two year. I simply added his college stats to give a larger sample size. If anything, his college numbers should have skewed his TD stats upward (since the week-to-week competition in college is obviously inferior to the NFL). They did that, but only slightly. Even if we predicted Peterson to have his single season (college or NFL) rushing, receiving, and TD totals, he wouldn't reach the levels that SSOG posted about.

Whether you believe in the information he posted or not is your prerogative, but he wasn't being disingenuous when he posted it. Besides, if you say we can't say Peterson has never scored more than 13 TDs (even though it's true) b/c he's only played 2 years, but we (FFers) do that all the time. We predict what we think players will do, based on their talents, team situation, and on past performance. Whether they have played 20 years, or haven't taken an NFL snap, it doesn't matter.

 
I think the biggest reason MJD #1 RB over Peterson is his ability in the passing game. MJD said a couple of days ago that he's expecting 330-350 touches. Let's say 270-280 of those are rushing attempts...that would leave 60-70 receptions to fill out his touch prediction.

If you assume he can come in at a 4.4 YPC clip which is modest given his historical performance, that would represent 1150-1200 (approximately) rushing yards.

As for his receiving numbers, even conservatively, if you give him a 9.0 YPR clip (he's never been below 9.1), that's 550-600 receiving yards.

So his YFS figures to be in the 1700-1800 range. Combine that with the fact that he's averaged 13 TD's/season and those are certainly numbers to take notice of for a #1 overall pick now that we seemingly have left the era of 2-3 RB's hitting 2000 YFS.

 
Bayhawks said:
From dictionary.com: disingenuous- 1.Not straightforward or candid; insincere or calculatingWhat SSOG posted was definitely straightforward. It was definitely candid, and I'm pretty sure he was sincere. So we can agree to disagree, but you are wrong.doesn't matter.
Click to expand...
I know the definition, thank you. Using the fact that Adrian Peterson has "never" rushed for more than a dozen TDs in his 2-year career to try to prove that he's not high-TD threat is disingenuous. As I pointed out, it's the same as saying Greg Olsen won't catch 60+ passes this year because he's "never" done it in his illustrious 2-year career.And I'll thank you not to tell me I'm wrong.
Bayhawks said:
As to the point of adding NCAA stats, you're the one that said we can't say Peterson has never scored more than 13 TDs, he's only played two year. I simply added his college stats to give a larger sample size. If anything, his college numbers should have skewed his TD stats upward (since the week-to-week competition in college is obviously inferior to the NFL). They did that, but only slightly. Even if we predicted Peterson to have his single season (college or NFL) rushing, receiving, and TD totals, he wouldn't reach the levels that SSOG posted about.
Click to expand...
Oh, boy! Can we go back to high school stats too? Because those count as much in fantasy football as NCAA stats do. So now we have 9 years of Peterson production, and in at least of one of those years he broke 30 TDs.
 
I personally think you are CRAZY.

Given your thesis, you are saying that you believe each RB will accumulate 350 touches in 2009. And you are going to take MJD over Peterson.

Sorry, but in a non-PPR scoring system I'm taking Adrian Peterson every time.

Minnesota's O-Line is far Superior.

Favre at 70 years old is Superior to Garrard.

Both Receiving Corp are mediocre although the combination of Shiancoe and Harvin will take a great deal of pressure off of the 8-man fronts.

Williamson is a putz and Holt's legs are shot.

On top of the fact that you are really speculating that MJD can sustain his previous level of production with a FULL LOAD given you have absolutely no data to back it up.

I would take Peterson, Turner, SJax and Gore above MJD in a non-PPR scoring format and Forte is close too.

 
crowe1130 said:
goonsquad said:
Have you tried trading down to 1.02?
Click to expand...
:lmao: First thing I thought. If you're sold on MJD, why not? Even if you can only squeeze a little extra out of the other guy.
Click to expand...
Why not? I ask why? This assumes that the other guy has ADP at the top. What if the other guy has MJD ranked #1? Now you're stuck with your second choice. I can't imagine anyone happy with that result.FWIW I had the #1 pick in my main PPR money league and took MJD for a number of reasons that have been listed already.
 
MJD doesn't HAVE to take over all (or even half) of Taylor's touches to become a top 10 or top 5 RB.

Taylor, over the last 3 years has averaged approximately 14 carries/game and approximately 1 reception/game.

During that same period, MJD has averaged approximately 11 carries/game and approximately 3 receptions/game.

This year, Taylor is gone. MJD is NOT going to assume all of Taylor's 14 carries each game. Greg Jones, Jennings, & other RBs will get some of them. But MJD will clearly be the lead RB this year. And, since he is the best receiving RB on the roster, he will likely pick up Taylor's receptions.

So let's assume MJD gets ONLY the 14 carries/game that Taylor has averaged the last 3 years; that equals 224 carries.

Let's also assume that he picks up 1 reception/game that Taylor averaged, giving him 4/game; that equals 64 catches.

His career ypc is 4.8. That includes some long runs, but also MANY short yardage situations which would lower the overall YPC. I don't believe there is reasonable cause to expect that to drop, but many people do, so let's lower it to 4.5 ypc. With 224 carries (X 4.5), that equals 1013 rushing yards.

His career yards per reception is 9.5. Again, I see no reason for this to drop, but let's leave it at last years (career low) mark of 9.1. At 64 receptions, that equals 582 receiving yards.

That's almost 1600 total yards. But we also have to account for (perhaps) his most important FF stat, TDs.

MJD averages 1 TD, every 16 carries. With 224 carries, that would equal 14 TDs. He also averages 1 TD for every 37 receptions. With 64 receptions that would equal 1.7 TDs. Round it up to 2.

We have 1595 total yards and 16 TDs. That averages out to almost 100 yards & 1 TD/game. A total of 256 FF points (according to FBG scoring, non PPR).

THESE PROJECTIONS AREN'T BASED ON MASSIVE INCREASES IN RUSHES, CARRIES, OR TDS! I predicted MJD with a total of 4 more touches/game (3 rushes + 1 reception). I used a lower YPC and YPR than he has averaged, and I used his career TD ratio. These projections should be considered his floor, and they project to more FF points than Adrian Peterson has ever scored in a single season. That total would also have made MJD the #3 RB the last two years.

^courtesy of Bayhawks in another MJD thread...

 
2007

ADP: 1609 yds, 19 rec, 13 TD

MJD: 1175 yds, 40 rec, 9 TD

2008

ADP: 1885 yds, 21 rec, 10 TD

MJD: 1389 yds, 62 rec, 14 TD

They're equal on TDs. MJD has about 60 more receptions, but ADP has almost 1000 more yards from scrimmage. In PPR they are 1a and 1b in whatever order you want IMO. In non-PPR I think ADP is clearly #1

More food for thought

 
Instinctive, your thesis is pretty "sneaky" if you ask me.

In 2007, Peterson played 14 games and had over 17 ppg.

In 2008, Peterson played 16 games and had just under 16 ppg.

If you think MJD gets the 16 ppg you are projecting then he just equals Peterson who is a PROVEN COMMODITY and with a better supporting cast he should easily eclipse his previous two years.

I love MJD as a RB, but I would never take him at RB#1.

 
Dancing Bear said:
Instinctive, your thesis is pretty "sneaky" if you ask me.In 2007, Peterson played 14 games and had over 17 ppg.In 2008, Peterson played 16 games and had just under 16 ppg.If you think MJD gets the 16 ppg you are projecting then he just equals Peterson who is a PROVEN COMMODITY and with a better supporting cast he should easily eclipse his previous two years.I love MJD as a RB, but I would never take him at RB#1.
Click to expand...
I had #1 also and took Peterson. I think his upside is on an entirely different planet than MJD's, and his floor is higher as well IMO. But I recalled that post from another thread and thought it would contribute.It is interesting to look at MJD's projected stats again and again and take his career lows in all stats and just add an extremely conservative amount of Taylor's touches. I agree that Peterson is a clear #1 becaus ehe has the potential to win your league. Not a lot of guys hasave that, and when you pick em, I can tell you that you just don't lose. As an owner of LT06, Brady/Moss in 07 and DWill/Turner/Slaton/CJ4.24 last year, I can say:When you get a guy who can score like DWill did down the stretch, only for a whole season like Brady did and LT did, then you win. The rest of your picks can even underperform and you still win. MJD doesn;t have that potential. Line isn't good enough, I personally don't think he is, there's not enough other weapons...In the first round, I want Peterson, SJax, or DWill. Those are the 3 RBs that have a chance to astronomically outperform all others. Nobody else has that.
 
My own preference is to trade down and take Turner. He gets no love here, but looks great to me. He outscored MJD by something like 3 FPs per game and AP by 2.

Why he gets "no love" is beyond me. We have seen his talent for a long time and the offense will only be better. Forte I get. (Williams, less so). But the Burner has everything going for him and seems SAFE.

And saying "never" for two seasons is MISLEADING, and if intended as such is DISINGENOUS to be sure.

 
I would take (and have done so when I had the opportunity in one league) Maurice Drew #1 overall. He's the most talented RB in the league, and he plays all 3 downs and gets goal line carries.

He also has the benefit of a ton of depth on his OL now, which not many RBs in the league have, and that should be a great buffer for when one of his OLs get injured.

I like Peterson as the clear #2. I wouldn't be unhappy to have either, but I'd take Drew #1 overall in all formats.

 
ookook said:
My own preference is to trade down and take Turner. He gets no love here, but looks great to me. He outscored MJD by something like 3 FPs per game and AP by 2. Why he gets "no love" is beyond me. We have seen his talent for a long time and the offense will only be better. Forte I get. (Williams, less so). But the Burner has everything going for him and seems SAFE. And saying "never" for two seasons is MISLEADING, and if intended as such is DISINGENOUS to be sure.
Click to expand...
Turner gets no love for many reasons.1. An unusually high percentage of his points came in his 5 games against bottom 7 rush defenses, which he doesn't face again.2. He does not catch the ball.3. They have more passing game and red zone passing threats now with Ryan getting seasoned and the addition fo Tony G.4. The high points in few games is actually common for studs, but Turner scored under 7 when he played top 16 defenses. That is unusual, and not good at all. I want my point range from my RB to be 10-25 or so, not 3-40. Much rather have a guy like Steven Jackson, who scores above 7 points in 91% of his games and 10 or more in 82% (82 may be inaccurate, the number there may be slightly different. 91 however is absolutely correct)Anyway, this is about whether MJD is a better choice than Peterson, and Turner isn't even a part of that conversation.
 
ookook said:
My own preference is to trade down and take Turner. He gets no love here, but looks great to me. He outscored MJD by something like 3 FPs per game and AP by 2. Why he gets "no love" is beyond me. We have seen his talent for a long time and the offense will only be better. Forte I get. (Williams, less so). But the Burner has everything going for him and seems SAFE. And saying "never" for two seasons is MISLEADING, and if intended as such is DISINGENOUS to be sure.
Click to expand...
Yeah that's fine for standard scoring.. MJD is biggest in PPR leagues, ala Westbrook.
 
GDogg said:
I would take (and have done so when I had the opportunity in one league) Maurice Drew #1 overall. He's the most talented RB in the league, and he plays all 3 downs and gets goal line carries. He also has the benefit of a ton of depth on his OL now, which not many RBs in the league have, and that should be a great buffer for when one of his OLs get injured.I like Peterson as the clear #2. I wouldn't be unhappy to have either, but I'd take Drew #1 overall in all formats.
Click to expand...
I'm sorry what?!?!?! Most talented in the league? Um, the most talented RB in the league doesn;t play 3 seasons behind an aging player who has lost a step. He explodes for the rushing title by year 3 if he's really that talented, or is at least a top 5 rusher year in and year out.Oh wait! That kind of player would be young LT, young Portis or....................Adrian Peterson!
 
Instinctive said:
GDogg said:
I would take (and have done so when I had the opportunity in one league) Maurice Drew #1 overall. He's the most talented RB in the league, and he plays all 3 downs and gets goal line carries. He also has the benefit of a ton of depth on his OL now, which not many RBs in the league have, and that should be a great buffer for when one of his OLs get injured.I like Peterson as the clear #2. I wouldn't be unhappy to have either, but I'd take Drew #1 overall in all formats.
Click to expand...
I'm sorry what?!?!?! Most talented in the league? Um, the most talented RB in the league doesn;t play 3 seasons behind an aging player who has lost a step. He explodes for the rushing title by year 3 if he's really that talented, or is at least a top 5 rusher year in and year out.Oh wait! That kind of player would be young LT, young Portis or....................Adrian Peterson!
Click to expand...
Yes, most talented RB in the league.I don't agree with your assessment of what needs to occur and at what milestone for one to be the most talented RB in the league.Besides, didn't Peterson come into the league and split carries with another player who never had a step to lose?In any case, have Peterson and Drew switch teams two seasons ago and I have little doubt Maurice would have torn up the league.
 
What has MJD done to make you think he has that talent?

Not anything amazing in YPC. 4.8 career, good, but doesn't yell out "most talented" either...

Not a gargatuan pass catcher, simply above average.

Great goalline back, I agree there.

Never rushed for 1500 yards. I'm sorry, never rushed for over 1,000 yards. That screams talent as a RB.

Never had 600 passing yards...so he isn't the most talented pass catcher either.

Averages under 50 catches a year...for a huge strength, that seems a bit underwhelming for the most talented guy in the league.

Not a good closer either, his worst YPC is in the 4th quarter, when it matters most. Even worse when his team is tied for the lead.

What has he done that says "most talented?" Umm...oh yeah, almost nothing. He converts a high percentage of goal line looks. Is Jerome Bettis one of the most talented backs ever? TJ Duckett? LenDale White?

Yeah...do you expect to receiver any more respect in thsi thread after that?

 
Fear & Loathing said:
I know the definition, thank you. Using the fact that Adrian Peterson has "never" rushed for more than a dozen TDs in his 2-year career to try to prove that he's not high-TD threat is disingenuous. .
Click to expand...
I don't think that you do. Please explain how the original statement was not a straightforward statement?

Please explain how the statement wasn't candid or true?

Please explain how the statement was insincere?

As I pointed out, it's the same as saying Greg Olsen won't catch 60+ passes this year because he's "never" done it in his illustrious 2-year career
Click to expand...
Link to where SSOG said ADP WON'T score more than 13 TDs? He didn't, so it's NOT the same as your Olsen statement. It would be the same as saying Greg Olsen hasn't caught 60+ passes in his career.
And I'll thank you not to tell me I'm wrong.
Click to expand...
Based on what you seem to believe disingenuous means, you are wrong.
Oh, boy! Can we go back to high school stats too? Because those count as much in fantasy football as NCAA stats do. So now we have 9 years of Peterson production, and in at least of one of those years he broke 30 TDs.
Click to expand...
OK, you're right; Could you please post some evidence of Peterson scoring MORE than 13 TDs in a season during his NFL career?
 
^ you do realize that he will no longer share carries with Fred Taylor? Fred Taylor will receive future hall of fame consideration. Fred Taylor, 11,000yds, 4.6 yard career average, 62 touchdowns, etc.

No shame in sharing carries with that guy.

MJD will do fine this year. Especially in a PPR league.

 
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