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Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Cookiemonster said:
new-guru said:
Need experts and you guys are the bestI could trade this guyBarber and J. Lewis for K. Moreno and S. GreeneorJ. Addai and J. Lewis for B. Wells and McCoyWhich group of Rookies will produce more I am fairly new at Dynasty and have a hard time evaluating guys that are producing with guys that could be. I think helping with questions like this is helpful for everyone.F & LI have looked at your ranking, which I greatly appreciate, and with Moreno higher than Barber and Lewis so much lowere than Greene is this a no Brainer. I ask guys locally and they thank I'm crazy for wanting to do either one of these trade. However I look at the upside and skills and see a much higher ceiling. Am I over valuing these rookies.This isn't a question so much as please help me with this trade. It's more please teach me Dynasty which is what I love about this Thread
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I think either would be good for you in the long run, as Lewis is on his last leg. I'm not sure either deal is a big plus over the other, but I like Moreno more than Wells and Greene more than McCoy, however Barber will likely hold value longer than Addai. Wells & McCoy may very well outproduce Moreno and Greene this year so it really depends on whether or not you're competitive now, and what else you have on your roster. If it were me, I'd see if you could squeeze a late pick on the end of either deal and take whichever one you can get more out of. In dynasty, of course winning now is very important but it's very important to look beyond just this year. Moreno has a very good, young O line and Greene should take a complimentary role to Leon by next year. Wells lands in a good offense, and may be worth more PPG while being a higher injury risk. McCoy doesn't look like a feature back to me, but could be a much better value in PPR. Addai may be phased out sooner than Barber, and while there is significant risk of Barber losing the feature role to Felix, he will maintain much better value than Addai if/when D.Brown eats bigger and bigger slices of the Indy pie. I think the moral of the story is that Lewis' value is circling the drain and if you can get ANYTHING for him, do it.
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I'd be all over either of those deals quickly. Lewis is all but toast, and neither Barber nor Addai is a big price to pay for TWO promising rookies. I would NOT jack around trying to add a pick, but simply push ACCEPT as quickly as my little fingers could find the button. Which one? Don't know....guess it depends on who ou feel better about. Personally, I prefer the McCoy/Wells combo, but certainly couldn't fault anyone for leaning towards the other. Plus...Barber feels like safer value to me then Addai at this point, so I'd rather hold Barber if I could.Either deal is a no-brainer, in the end.
 
I love Moreno. I would do either one, but lean towards Moreno because I think he is head and shoulders above the others. If you really like McCoy though that is a good deal too.

 
Is Addai really going to let Brown push him aside?

I am worried about Barbers long term Value.

Thanks for the insight.

I see what Barber has done and have a hard time to want to deal him. However After reading everyone's post on previously in this thread on Moreno and how great is O-line is I figure he has much better upside. But, Does a owner bet on the COME or is that what makes a great Dynasty Owner? I do think about winning now.

I did not post my team or anything because I did not want it to be about me and the trade.

I look at Mendenhall, Stewart, and so many rookies who have good talent but are not getting a full load and hate to lose a guy who is the main ball carrier for someone who still needs to work his way into game shape and learn the playbook. Just saying.

I wanted to be about players, their Value and Dynasty Strategy!

 
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new-guru said:
Is Addai really going to let Brown push him aside?I am worried about Barbers long term Value.Thanks for the insight. I see what Barber has done and have a hard time to want to deal him. However After reading everyone's post on previously in this thread on Moreno and how great is O-line is I figure he has much better upside. But, Does a owner bet on the COME or is that what makes a great Dynasty Owner? I do think about winning now.I did not post my team or anything because I did not want it to be about me and the trade. I look at Mendenhall, Stewart, and so many rookies who have good talent but are not getting a full load and hate to lose a guy who is the main ball carrier for someone who still needs to work his way into game shape and learn the playbook. Just saying.I wanted to be about players, their Value and Dynasty Strategy!
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If you are worried about winning now, that 2nd deal might actually help you now. If Wells can stay more or less healthy, he's the best of the 4 players in that trade.
 
new-guru said:
Is Addai really going to let Brown push him aside?
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What has Addai done that makes you believe this could be very difficult for Brown? Addai has been one of the worst starting RBs in the league for the past year and a half. Brown is more talented.This could be a time share both this year and next. Even then, what's so attractive about Joseph Addai in a timeshare? It basically turns him into a flex/RB3 instead of a RB2.
 
renesauz said:
Cookiemonster said:
new-guru said:
Need experts and you guys are the bestI could trade this guyBarber and J. Lewis for K. Moreno and S. GreeneorJ. Addai and J. Lewis for B. Wells and McCoyWhich group of Rookies will produce more I am fairly new at Dynasty and have a hard time evaluating guys that are producing with guys that could be. I think helping with questions like this is helpful for everyone.F & LI have looked at your ranking, which I greatly appreciate, and with Moreno higher than Barber and Lewis so much lowere than Greene is this a no Brainer. I ask guys locally and they thank I'm crazy for wanting to do either one of these trade. However I look at the upside and skills and see a much higher ceiling. Am I over valuing these rookies.This isn't a question so much as please help me with this trade. It's more please teach me Dynasty which is what I love about this Thread
Click to expand...
I think either would be good for you in the long run, as Lewis is on his last leg. I'm not sure either deal is a big plus over the other, but I like Moreno more than Wells and Greene more than McCoy, however Barber will likely hold value longer than Addai. Wells & McCoy may very well outproduce Moreno and Greene this year so it really depends on whether or not you're competitive now, and what else you have on your roster. If it were me, I'd see if you could squeeze a late pick on the end of either deal and take whichever one you can get more out of. In dynasty, of course winning now is very important but it's very important to look beyond just this year. Moreno has a very good, young O line and Greene should take a complimentary role to Leon by next year. Wells lands in a good offense, and may be worth more PPG while being a higher injury risk. McCoy doesn't look like a feature back to me, but could be a much better value in PPR. Addai may be phased out sooner than Barber, and while there is significant risk of Barber losing the feature role to Felix, he will maintain much better value than Addai if/when D.Brown eats bigger and bigger slices of the Indy pie. I think the moral of the story is that Lewis' value is circling the drain and if you can get ANYTHING for him, do it.
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I'd be all over either of those deals quickly. Lewis is all but toast, and neither Barber nor Addai is a big price to pay for TWO promising rookies. I would NOT jack around trying to add a pick, but simply push ACCEPT as quickly as my little fingers could find the button. Which one? Don't know....guess it depends on who ou feel better about. Personally, I prefer the McCoy/Wells combo, but certainly couldn't fault anyone for leaning towards the other. Plus...Barber feels like safer value to me then Addai at this point, so I'd rather hold Barber if I could.Either deal is a no-brainer, in the end.
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Agreed... and do it NOW before Lewis is actually cut or demoted :goodposting: I prefer the second because I think Wells and McCoy will both be very good, and I think Addai has less long-term upside than Barber. Just my opinion.
 
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Pretty amusing that you lecture me about last year being past tense and then go on to cite Slaton's 1500+ yard & double digit TD performance... last year. It's good to see you are consistent.As for common fantasy mistakes, your approach to wait until his value goes down to believe it has gone down is one of the worst. Good luck with that approach.
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The only luck I need is the luck that everybody needs in this game....good health from my studs. And yes, Slaton is one of my studs. If you guys doubt that he is, then I highly question your analytical ability on RBs. This one is obvious. You don't get 4.8 ypc on almost 270 carries just coming off the street from Scrubville.....S-T-U-D!!!
 
new-guru said:
Need experts and you guys are the bestI could trade this guyBarber and J. Lewis for K. Moreno and S. GreeneorJ. Addai and J. Lewis for B. Wells and McCoyWhich group of Rookies will produce more I am fairly new at Dynasty and have a hard time evaluating guys that are producing with guys that could be. I think helping with questions like this is helpful for everyone.F & LI have looked at your ranking, which I greatly appreciate, and with Moreno higher than Barber and Lewis so much lowere than Greene is this a no Brainer. I ask guys locally and they thank I'm crazy for wanting to do either one of these trade. However I look at the upside and skills and see a much higher ceiling. Am I over valuing these rookies.This isn't a question so much as please help me with this trade. It's more please teach me Dynasty which is what I love about this Thread
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It's good to see I'm not the only one that thinks the 2nd deal is far superior to the first.
 
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kremenull said:
Pretty amusing that you lecture me about last year being past tense and then go on to cite Slaton's 1500+ yard & double digit TD performance... last year. It's good to see you are consistent.As for common fantasy mistakes, your approach to wait until his value goes down to believe it has gone down is one of the worst. Good luck with that approach.
Click to expand...
The only luck I need is the luck that everybody needs in this game....good health from my studs. And yes, Slaton is one of my studs. If you guys doubt that he is, then I highly question your analytical ability on RBs. This one is obvious. You don't get 4.8 ypc on almost 270 carries just coming off the street from Scrubville.....S-T-U-D!!!
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:confused: THere's no doubt that Slaton is a dynamic back, but I think it's foolish to ignore the long-term uncertainty around him. First, he's a smaller back, struggled somewhat in the middle of the season last year before bounding back, and many considered him just a change of pace back coming into the league. There has been talk from the moment he was drafted about not being the goal line back, he didn't particularly impress in that category, and the talk has continued now into this season. And he hasn't proven he can really stand up under a full year load, or for multiple years. The reality is this: Slaton has a ton of upside (particularly in PPR), but he also has a lot of downside. Many consider him a top 5 dynasty back, and I just think he has too many risks to value that high. I had him in 2 leagues last year. In one, I moved him because I got a pretty great offer (3x 1st rounders, two of which will be top 5 picks, and I had no other picks and was rebuilding a terrible team I took over). In the other, I kept him - but I would probably move him for the right price. He's just one of those guys that I think can have the rug pulled out from under him at any time. Remember, at one point guys like Lamont Jordan and Kevin Jones were considered top 10 dynasty RBs because of their "studly" years - and you saw how long that lasted.For my money, there are probably 8-10 backs I would take over Slaton in a dynasty format, and there are others (e.g., Ray Rice, Donald Brown, Chris Wells) who I consider to have similar long-term upside. The difference is, I could trade Slaton for one of those guys PLUS a few picks or other players.
 
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Brandon Jackson - still worth rostering in a deep dynasty league?

He is young and was still considered to be Grant's primary backup. But now he is injured (again)...and Wynn has been coming on strong.

Does Brando ever get himself a shot, or is he a career backup?

 
The Real Yoda said:
Brandon Jackson - still worth rostering in a deep dynasty league?He is young and was still considered to be Grant's primary backup. But now he is injured (again)...and Wynn has been coming on strong.Does Brando ever get himself a shot, or is he a career backup?
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If you look back a few pages you'll see the discussion regarding bjax. No reason to start it up again.
 
Magnus_CA said:
The Real Yoda said:
Brandon Jackson - still worth rostering in a deep dynasty league?He is young and was still considered to be Grant's primary backup. But now he is injured (again)...and Wynn has been coming on strong.Does Brando ever get himself a shot, or is he a career backup?
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If you look back a few pages you'll see the discussion regarding bjax. No reason to start it up again.
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Thanks, will look. Too many pages to keep track of!
 
corpcow said:
kremenull said:
Pretty amusing that you lecture me about last year being past tense and then go on to cite Slaton's 1500+ yard & double digit TD performance... last year. It's good to see you are consistent.

As for common fantasy mistakes, your approach to wait until his value goes down to believe it has gone down is one of the worst. Good luck with that approach.
Click to expand...
The only luck I need is the luck that everybody needs in this game....good health from my studs. And yes, Slaton is one of my studs. If you guys doubt that he is, then I highly question your analytical ability on RBs. This one is obvious. You don't get 4.8 ypc on almost 270 carries just coming off the street from Scrubville.....S-T-U-D!!!
Click to expand...
:fishing: THere's no doubt that Slaton is a dynamic back, but I think it's foolish to ignore the long-term uncertainty around him. First, he's a smaller back, struggled somewhat in the middle of the season last year before bounding back, and many considered him just a change of pace back coming into the league. There has been talk from the moment he was drafted about not being the goal line back, he didn't particularly impress in that category, and the talk has continued now into this season. And he hasn't proven he can really stand up under a full year load, or for multiple years.

The reality is this: Slaton has a ton of upside (particularly in PPR), but he also has a lot of downside. Many consider him a top 5 dynasty back, and I just think he has too many risks to value that high.

I had him in 2 leagues last year. In one, I moved him because I got a pretty great offer (3x 1st rounders, two of which will be top 5 picks, and I had no other picks and was rebuilding a terrible team I took over). In the other, I kept him - but I would probably move him for the right price. He's just one of those guys that I think can have the rug pulled out from under him at any time. Remember, at one point guys like Lamont Jordan and Kevin Jones were considered top 10 dynasty RBs because of their "studly" years - and you saw how long that lasted.

For my money, there are probably 8-10 backs I would take over Slaton in a dynasty format, and there are others (e.g., Ray Rice, Donald Brown, Chris Wells) who I consider to have similar long-term upside. The difference is, I could trade Slaton for one of those guys PLUS a few picks or other players.
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Well, that solves it right there. He must be a bum if he is ranked only 9-11 in your mind...... :thumbup: Let's see. About the same size (height and weight) as Frank Gore, LT, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Priest Holmes. Bigger than Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Tiki Barber, and Barry Sanders. But every doubter seems to believe that Slaton is too small to carry a full load. Incredible logic and certainly history agrees......Again, this time double :D

One season, 10 TDs. Exactly how many double-digit TD seasons has Frank Gore enjoyed? If you answered zero, you get the prize. Now if you believe you are selling high 'cause you end up with D.Brown or Ray Rice plus something else, who knows, you may be OK. But I wouldn't do it. I believe Slaton is better than either of those guys.

Listen, to make this simple I guess you all must think I believe Slaton is the best RB in the league. No, I do not. But on the flip side, when people value him as some average RB who could be replaced at any moment, my answer is this. EVERY RB in the league has to go out and prove himself, year in and year out. It's not just Slaton. If you don't answer the bell, you will get replaced. And thus far, from what I have seen and read, this kid will be just fine.....for quite some time.

 
kremenull said:
corpcow said:
For my money, there are probably 8-10 backs I would take over Slaton in a dynasty format, and there are others (e.g., Ray Rice, Donald Brown, Chris Wells) who I consider to have similar long-term upside. The difference is, I could trade Slaton for one of those guys PLUS a few picks or other players.
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Well, that solves it right there. He must be a bum if he is ranked only 9-11 in your mind...... :goodposting: Let's see. About the same size (height and weight) as Frank Gore, LT, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Priest Holmes. Bigger than Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Tiki Barber, and Barry Sanders. But every doubter seems to believe that Slaton is too small to carry a full load. Incredible logic and certainly history agrees......Again, this time double :sarcasm:

One season, 10 TDs. Exactly how many double-digit TD seasons has Frank Gore enjoyed? If you answered zero, you get the prize. Now if you believe you are selling high 'cause you end up with D.Brown or Ray Rice plus something else, who knows, you may be OK. But I wouldn't do it. I believe Slaton is better than either of those guys.

Listen, to make this simple I guess you all must think I believe Slaton is the best RB in the league. No, I do not. But on the flip side, when people value him as some average RB who could be replaced at any moment, my answer is this. EVERY RB in the league has to go out and prove himself, year in and year out. It's not just Slaton. If you don't answer the bell, you will get replaced. And thus far, from what I have seen and read, this kid will be just fine.....for quite some time.
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I never said he was a bum... only that I don't think he's a "S-T-U-D" as you keep saying. Maybe your definition of "STUD" is different than mine. The problem - and as I've said repeatedly - is that some are valuing him as a top 5 dynasty RB and I think he's grossly overvalued at that price. When I look at Slaton, I see last year being at or near his peak, while he's being valued as if it's his floor.

I would not trade him straight up for Donald Brown, but the point is that I didn't have to. In that league, the trade was Donald Brown (who I in turn traded) and TWO MORE 1st rounders for the next 2 yrs, each of which should be in the top 5 or so.

 
corpcow said:
kremenull said:
corpcow said:
For my money, there are probably 8-10 backs I would take over Slaton in a dynasty format, and there are others (e.g., Ray Rice, Donald Brown, Chris Wells) who I consider to have similar long-term upside. The difference is, I could trade Slaton for one of those guys PLUS a few picks or other players.
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Well, that solves it right there. He must be a bum if he is ranked only 9-11 in your mind...... :goodposting: Let's see. About the same size (height and weight) as Frank Gore, LT, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Priest Holmes. Bigger than Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Tiki Barber, and Barry Sanders. But every doubter seems to believe that Slaton is too small to carry a full load. Incredible logic and certainly history agrees......Again, this time double :sarcasm:

One season, 10 TDs. Exactly how many double-digit TD seasons has Frank Gore enjoyed? If you answered zero, you get the prize. Now if you believe you are selling high 'cause you end up with D.Brown or Ray Rice plus something else, who knows, you may be OK. But I wouldn't do it. I believe Slaton is better than either of those guys.

Listen, to make this simple I guess you all must think I believe Slaton is the best RB in the league. No, I do not. But on the flip side, when people value him as some average RB who could be replaced at any moment, my answer is this. EVERY RB in the league has to go out and prove himself, year in and year out. It's not just Slaton. If you don't answer the bell, you will get replaced. And thus far, from what I have seen and read, this kid will be just fine.....for quite some time.
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I never said he was a bum... only that I don't think he's a "S-T-U-D" as you keep saying. Maybe your definition of "STUD" is different than mine. The problem - and as I've said repeatedly - is that some are valuing him as a top 5 dynasty RB and I think he's grossly overvalued at that price. When I look at Slaton, I see last year being at or near his peak, while he's being valued as if it's his floor.

I would not trade him straight up for Donald Brown, but the point is that I didn't have to. In that league, the trade was Donald Brown (who I in turn traded) and TWO MORE 1st rounders for the next 2 yrs, each of which should be in the top 5 or so.
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Well, a STUD RB in my book is a guy who has Top 5 potential, year in and year out. Until proven otherwise, yes, I believe Slaton fits that bill. When you factor in the Kubiak offensive scheme, he's that much more valuable. Although, this is a guy who is not scheme dependent, IMO, but hey, it doesn't hurt to have an explosive overall offense and great play-caller. For those that believe the Texans system is responsible for his numbers, how come nobody performed as well in this system (under Kubiak) before him, if it was that cut-and-dry? Anyway, pretty nice deal for you gaining the extra firsts. Next year's draft could bring something very nice, if it is a Top 5 selection. But for this year, you take a huge step back, IMO, on the Slaton-Brown swap. But for as cheaply as most people got Slaton in rook drafts and startups last year, I'd assume you have the RB star power to afford to make such a deal.

 
Just wanted say thanks

I ended up trading J. Addai and J. Lewis for K. Moreno and S. Greene

I would have much rather had McCoy but he decided he didn't want to part with him

Hope this helps people figure value

 
new-guru said:
Just wanted say thanks I ended up trading J. Addai and J. Lewis for K. Moreno and S. GreeneI would have much rather had McCoy but he decided he didn't want to part with himHope this helps people figure value
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I'm not sure how much this will help others assess value, because you robbed him blind on this. The two backs you got arguably have more dynasty value than either player you gave up. Moreno has the most upside here and seems to carry the most value, and Greene and Addai are about a wash at this point, IMO. Lewis will probably turn in 6-8 games at about 3 ypc, and will disappear into RB oblivion after that. He should have virtually no trade value in a dynasty league, so the fact that you were able to include him in this deal is a bonus for you.
 
i only look at these rankings once in a while,but i love them.

that said, i am a little surprised chris johnson is so high. i like him, a lot, and i'm glad i have him on my team, but to rank him 3rd seems a bit high. i'm not saying he isn't top 5 or 7, but to have him ahead of deangelo williams and, maybe, michael turner, seems like too much of a man crush.

 
eagles2007 said:
i only look at these rankings once in a while,but i love them. that said, i am a little surprised chris johnson is so high. i like him, a lot, and i'm glad i have him on my team, but to rank him 3rd seems a bit high. i'm not saying he isn't top 5 or 7, but to have him ahead of deangelo williams and, maybe, michael turner, seems like too much of a man crush.
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F&L has been all over Johnson from the word go. His pre-draft indicators were off the charts (the highest speed score in memory, for instance), and he lived up to the hype on the field. He's one of the most talented RBs in the NFL. As for DeAngelo Williams... I don't know why it's that crazy to have CJ ahead of him. I mean, they both have the exact same track record- one season. DeAngelo's contract is up soon and we don't know what the Panthers are going to do with him (especially with Stewart on the roster), which limits his value, and he's also 2.5 years older than CJ. If someone were convinced that CJ was the better talent than Williams, it's a fully justifiable ranking. I have a harder time with Forte being #4, since I think he's definitely less talented than Williams, SJax, and Gore.As for Turner... I personally don't even have him in my top 10. I'm not a huge fan of highly-ranked 27 year old RBs with a 1 year track record, a flukish red zone performance, 17 *CAREER* receptions, and only one demonstrably elite skill (ability to handle a back-breaking workload). He's a good runner, but every single RB in the top two tiers (plus Ronnie Brown) is a more talented runner, imo, and a couple other backs have flashed potential, have receiving skills, and are significantly younger.
 
SSOG said:
eagles2007 said:
i only look at these rankings once in a while,but i love them. that said, i am a little surprised chris johnson is so high. i like him, a lot, and i'm glad i have him on my team, but to rank him 3rd seems a bit high. i'm not saying he isn't top 5 or 7, but to have him ahead of deangelo williams and, maybe, michael turner, seems like too much of a man crush.
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F&L has been all over Johnson from the word go. His pre-draft indicators were off the charts (the highest speed score in memory, for instance), and he lived up to the hype on the field. He's one of the most talented RBs in the NFL. As for DeAngelo Williams... I don't know why it's that crazy to have CJ ahead of him. I mean, they both have the exact same track record- one season. DeAngelo's contract is up soon and we don't know what the Panthers are going to do with him (especially with Stewart on the roster), which limits his value, and he's also 2.5 years older than CJ. If someone were convinced that CJ was the better talent than Williams, it's a fully justifiable ranking. I have a harder time with Forte being #4, since I think he's definitely less talented than Williams, SJax, and Gore.As for Turner... I personally don't even have him in my top 10. I'm not a huge fan of highly-ranked 27 year old RBs with a 1 year track record, a flukish red zone performance, 17 *CAREER* receptions, and only one demonstrably elite skill (ability to handle a back-breaking workload). He's a good runner, but every single RB in the top two tiers (plus Ronnie Brown) is a more talented runner, imo, and a couple other backs have flashed potential, have receiving skills, and are significantly younger.
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so you're going to say turner's year was 'flukish' but williams' wasn't? michael turner was pretty damn talented coming out of college. i remember we had a draft of college players a year or two before he came out - maybe even 3 - and he went no. 1. just because he couldn't unseat LT doesn't mean he isn't talented. he has speed and power. he's a young 27 FWIW.
 
eagles2007 said:
so you're going to say turner's year was 'flukish' but williams' wasn't? michael turner was pretty damn talented coming out of college. i remember we had a draft of college players a year or two before he came out - maybe even 3 - and he went no. 1. just because he couldn't unseat LT doesn't mean he isn't talented. he has speed and power. he's a young 27 FWIW.
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I never said that Williams' year wasn't flukish. I never said that Turner wasn't talented, either. I said that Williams is a more talented runner than Turner. Faster, better balance, better open-field moves. His career high in receptions is greater than six, too, which always helps. Averaged a full yard more per attempt. He's also a young 26, for whatever that's worth.Do you think that Turner is a more talented runner than DeAngelo Williams? Or that he's a better receiver? That he's in a better situation? That he's going to be around longer (regardless of how "young" Turner's 27 is, Turner is a year older than Williams, has been in the NFL two years longer, has 50 more career NFL carries, had a much heavier workload last year, and has a running style that exposes him to far more hits)? I find it hard to find a single argument for ranking Turner over Williams, to be honest.
 
SSOG said:
eagles2007 said:
so you're going to say turner's year was 'flukish' but williams' wasn't? michael turner was pretty damn talented coming out of college. i remember we had a draft of college players a year or two before he came out - maybe even 3 - and he went no. 1. just because he couldn't unseat LT doesn't mean he isn't talented. he has speed and power. he's a young 27 FWIW.
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I never said that Williams' year wasn't flukish. I never said that Turner wasn't talented, either. I said that Williams is a more talented runner than Turner. Faster, better balance, better open-field moves. His career high in receptions is greater than six, too, which always helps. Averaged a full yard more per attempt. He's also a young 26, for whatever that's worth.Do you think that Turner is a more talented runner than DeAngelo Williams? Or that he's a better receiver? That he's in a better situation? That he's going to be around longer (regardless of how "young" Turner's 27 is, Turner is a year older than Williams, has been in the NFL two years longer, has 50 more career NFL carries, had a much heavier workload last year, and has a running style that exposes him to far more hits)? I find it hard to find a single argument for ranking Turner over Williams, to be honest.
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you are putting words in my mouth. i NEVER said turner was better than williams ... or johnson. honestly, i don't know who i'd take if i was in a dynasty that started tomorrow and i had to choose. as far as who is in a better situation - i'd give a slight edge to turner. stewart is more of a threat; delhomme isn't as good as ryan. i'd love to see them run against each other ... i'm not convinced deangelo is faster. neither one is going to be around for the long-term to be honest. i think if either is still producing in 5 years i'd be stunned.
 
SSOG said:
eagles2007 said:
i only look at these rankings once in a while,but i love them. that said, i am a little surprised chris johnson is so high. i like him, a lot, and i'm glad i have him on my team, but to rank him 3rd seems a bit high. i'm not saying he isn't top 5 or 7, but to have him ahead of deangelo williams and, maybe, michael turner, seems like too much of a man crush.
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F&L has been all over Johnson from the word go. His pre-draft indicators were off the charts (the highest speed score in memory, for instance), and he lived up to the hype on the field. He's one of the most talented RBs in the NFL. As for DeAngelo Williams... I don't know why it's that crazy to have CJ ahead of him. I mean, they both have the exact same track record- one season. DeAngelo's contract is up soon and we don't know what the Panthers are going to do with him (especially with Stewart on the roster), which limits his value, and he's also 2.5 years older than CJ. If someone were convinced that CJ was the better talent than Williams, it's a fully justifiable ranking. I have a harder time with Forte being #4, since I think he's definitely less talented than Williams, SJax, and Gore.As for Turner... I personally don't even have him in my top 10. I'm not a huge fan of highly-ranked 27 year old RBs with a 1 year track record, a flukish red zone performance, 17 *CAREER* receptions, and only one demonstrably elite skill (ability to handle a back-breaking workload). He's a good runner, but every single RB in the top two tiers (plus Ronnie Brown) is a more talented runner, imo, and a couple other backs have flashed potential, have receiving skills, and are significantly younger.
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Good points here by SSOG. Thx.I think it's fair to question Chris Johnson at No. 3. It's not like he's an obvious choice for that spot, but it is obvious that I'm a believer. Johnson is an elite talent, and the offense revolves around him more than just about any offense in the NFL revolves around one player. In fact, when Johnson isn't in the game, the offense doesn't work. That's a good indicator of long-term value. DeAngelo Williams is growing on me, but I just can't shake the fact that Jonathan Stewart is just as talented. What's the future here?I tend to agree with SSOG on Michael Turner, but this mostly comes down to what type of league you're in. I generally consider about a 0.5 PPR in the rankings, and Turner's value is so much higher in non-PPR. I just tend to stay away from backs who don't catch passes because their long-term consistency is wanting. That said, I love the Falcons offense and it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Turner climbs throughout the season again.Re: Forte. I used to think he was significantly less talented than that group. Then I started watching film and doing research on him. He's plenty talented.
 
new-guru said:
I see what Barber has done and have a hard time to want to deal him. However After reading everyone's post on previously in this thread on Moreno and how great is O-line is I figure he has much better upside. But, Does a owner bet on the COME or is that what makes a great Dynasty Owner? I do think about winning now.

I did not post my team or anything because I did not want it to be about me and the trade.

I look at Mendenhall, Stewart, and so many rookies who have good talent but are not getting a full load and hate to lose a guy who is the main ball carrier for someone who still needs to work his way into game shape and learn the playbook. Just saying.

I wanted to be about players, their Value and Dynasty Strategy!
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Right, I think that sentence is the key here.In Dynasty leagues it's about dealing a player away at the right time and targeting the right guy(s) as a return. The best time to deal Barber was about mid-season last year, but he still has plenty of value now. You want to "bet on the come" in a return, but you want a guy who can help you right now and build a better team for the future. In a perfect world, you want a young player who will break out and multiply his value.

That's why I like Moreno so much more than Stewart or Mendenhall as the return. Stewart isn't going to break out because of DeAngelo Williams' presence and his own ongoing foot pain. Mendenhall isn't going to break out because of Willie Parker. Mendenhall isn't quite as talented as Stewart or Moreno either.

Just as importantly, Stewart and Mendenhall won't be helping you win on a weekly basis in 2009. Moreno will. You can have your cake and eat it too if your spidey sense is tingling strong enough on a trade target.

 
Fear & Loathing said:
new-guru said:
I see what Barber has done and have a hard time to want to deal him. However After reading everyone's post on previously in this thread on Moreno and how great is O-line is I figure he has much better upside. But, Does a owner bet on the COME or is that what makes a great Dynasty Owner? I do think about winning now.

I did not post my team or anything because I did not want it to be about me and the trade.

I look at Mendenhall, Stewart, and so many rookies who have good talent but are not getting a full load and hate to lose a guy who is the main ball carrier for someone who still needs to work his way into game shape and learn the playbook. Just saying.

I wanted to be about players, their Value and Dynasty Strategy!
Click to expand...
Right, I think that sentence is the key here.In Dynasty leagues it's about dealing a player away at the right time and targeting the right guy(s) as a return. The best time to deal Barber was about mid-season last year, but he still has plenty of value now. You want to "bet on the come" in a return, but you want a guy who can help you right now and build a better team for the future. In a perfect world, you want a young player who will break out and multiply his value.

That's why I like Moreno so much more than Stewart or Mendenhall as the return. Stewart isn't going to break out because of DeAngelo Williams' presence and his own ongoing foot pain. Mendenhall isn't going to break out because of Willie Parker. Mendenhall isn't quite as talented as Stewart or Moreno either.

Just as importantly, Stewart and Mendenhall won't be helping you win on a weekly basis in 2009. Moreno will. You can have your cake and eat it too if your spidey sense is tingling strong enough on a trade target.
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Wow I did have that spidey sense tingling strong. That is why I decided to let go of Addai. I kept Barber knowing that they will rely heavily on the run this year. Even with the presence of Jones I think there will plenty of carries or touches to go around.Enjoy the thread and all of everyones reads

 
eagles2007 said:
as far as who is in a better situation - i'd give a slight edge to turner. stewart is more of a threat; delhomme isn't as good as ryan. i'd love to see them run against each other ... i'm not convinced deangelo is faster. neither one is going to be around for the long-term to be honest. i think if either is still producing in 5 years i'd be stunned.
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Stewart is more of a threat, but Carolina runs more than Atlanta and has a better offensive line. DeAngelo had a faster timed 40 coming out of college than Turner, for whatever that's worth. Also, it's not just about how long a back will stick around, it's about how LIKELY he is to stick around that long. Projecting future value is an exercise in risk evaluation, and Turner ranks higher than DeAngelo in every significant RB risk factor (older, more career carries, higher recent workload, more contact-seeking running style). I'm not saying that Turner is a significant risk (as far as the risk factors go, Turner checks in pretty low in almost all of them), just that he's a greater risk than DeAngelo.
valhallan said:
eagles2007 said:
you are putting words in my mouth.
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Actually he just asked you a series of questions.
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This. My goal wasn't to imply that you were implying anything (that's a lot of implications, the implications of which would be hard to imagine!). I was simply asking a string of questions so that I could get a better handle on how, exactly, you felt about the players in question... and also as a means of getting you to critically evaluate the two players against each other.
Fear & Loathing said:
Re: Forte. I used to think he was significantly less talented than that group. Then I started watching film and doing research on him. He's plenty talented.
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You can be less talented than the most talented runners in the NFL and still be plenty talented. I don't think it's any heresy to say that Peterson/MJD/CJ/SJax/DeAngelo are all more talented runners than Forte. I also don't think it's that controversial to take Turner or Gore over him, either. As for Ronnie Brown... I'm a lot higher on Ronnie than you are. You were talking about being high on CJ because the offense ran through him... well, in 2007, the Dolphins offense ran through Brown until he got hurt, and in 2008 they still ran the offense through him despite only being one year removed from an injury that typically takes 2 years to return 100% from.I think Forte's a legit starter, plenty good enough to hold on to his job for years to come despite any incoming challengers, and I love his receiving ability... but I'm just not sold on him as an elite runner. Actually, I feel the same way about Forte as I do about Moreno- which is fitting, given our disagreements over Moreno, too.
 
Fear & Loathing said:
Fodasme69 said:
SSOG said:
PS, F&L, any plans on the updated WR rankings?
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:hifive:
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I've been planning on updating for over a month now, but I just haven't been able to find 3-4 hours in a row to finish it up. I did a lot of quick movement tonight while I was online drafting with my oldest league. There's a very rough updated copy on the blog now, but I'm still going to make more changes.
Click to expand...
Values not updated.....I'm sure you know but just putting it out there :yes:
 
Well, no better time than now to profess my love for this thread and all the time and effort that has been poured into it. I've been reading this forum for years and I've found this thread in particular to be an unbelievable wealth of knowledge. This is my first post on these boards and what better way to open than by saying thank you to F&L for what he's done for me. Not to mention guys like EBF and SSOG; I've found your insight to be invaluable as well.

Thank you for all your hard work!

 
Players I am currently pursuing, meaning I think they're being under valued by most

Malcom Kelly, although I should have done this a month ago

Mario Manningham, unlike Kelly I had less faith in him turning it around, I would rather take a chance on a guy with health problems than guys with head problems

Leon Washington, we know what he is, but there's some Brian Westbrook like upside if he's given more touches

Jerious Norwood, see Leon above

Ryan Grant, I've been a skeptic all offseason but now believe he can be top 10 this season

Ronnie Brown, unlike Grant I've not been a skeptic all offseason, the problem here is that the Brown owner likely values him higher than the consensus and equally as me so the value may not be there

Willie Parker, likely about a week late here but he's been on my buyer radar all offseason, worth a shot

J Stew, try to take advantage of a panicking owner, the risk is definitely worth the reward at current prices

Brandon Marshall, mental midgets with his upside are worth the current going rate

Players on my roster I am currently looking to deal

Wes Welker, we know what he is, a solid PPR high end #2 but what will he be when he loses Moss? Brady's decline begins? My biggest hang up here is not if he declines, it's when. He's the type of player you don't want to be late on because if you are it could be a cliff like fall.

Pierre Thomas, ok I'm going to wait for him to get on the field first as my attempts at dealing him in July failed but assuming he comes back ok I'll be looking to send him packing, he looks good but his lack of job security scares me, given the potential ROI I think selling him has high profit potential

 
MAC_32 said:
Leon Washington, we know what he is, but there's some Brian Westbrook like upside if he's given more touches
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He was hard to get even before the preseason, but I agree he has major upside.
Ryan Grant, I've been a skeptic all offseason but now believe he can be top 10 this season
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I think he's undervalued. He's got the job locked up, he's only 26, and it's a dynamic offense - plenty of upside.
Ronnie Brown, unlike Grant I've not been a skeptic all offseason, the problem here is that the Brown owner likely values him higher than the consensus and equally as me so the value may not be there
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Yeah true, the owner probably won't part easily with Ronnie, but I think he's due for a monster season. We saw a top 3 back up until his injury in 2007, he's proven he's healed, and with no true #1 receiver this offense looks like it's going to funnel through him for a while.
Willie Parker, likely about a week late here but he's been on my buyer radar all offseason, worth a shot
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Agreed. Mendenhall is not making the most of his opportunities and Parker really hasn't shown he's ready to slow down yet.
Pierre Thomas, ok I'm going to wait for him to get on the field first as my attempts at dealing him in July failed but assuming he comes back ok I'll be looking to send him packing, he looks good but his lack of job security scares me, given the potential ROI I think selling him has high profit potential
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Thomas has been way overvalued. He had a handful of good games but he's not a game-changer at all and Bush is not out of the picture by any stretch of the imagination.
 
Fear & Loathing said:
Steed said:
Since when did we get in the business of downgrading guys on the account of Chris Brown?
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It has little to do with Chris Brown and a lot to do with Kubiak making it clear on several occasions that he'd rather Slaton did not receive deep red zone carries. As I'm sure I don't have to tell you, those carries are more valuable than other carries, and Slaton needs to keep quite a few of them to maintain year-after-year value. One of my biggest concerns with Slaton is that he has some Willie Parker in him, where coaches will continue to take pieces of responsibility from him. Kubiak just took a huge chunk.
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Texans beat writer John McClain (one of the best beats around) expects Steve Slaton to lose 10-12 touches per game to Chris Brown. :goodposting:

 
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MAC_32 said:
Leon Washington, we know what he is, but there's some Brian Westbrook like upside if he's given more touchesJerious Norwood, see Leon above
Click to expand...
More like DWard upside. Which is still something, especially if you sell high.
Ryan Grant, I've been a skeptic all offseason but now believe he can be top 10 this seasonWillie Parker, likely about a week late here but he's been on my buyer radar all offseason, worth a shot
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The only upside is for win-now owners who need a RB2 or Flex. I think the smart move is to sell these guys in about a month or two. Like them more in redraft.
J Stew, try to take advantage of a panicking owner, the risk is definitely worth the reward at current pricesBrandon Marshall, mental midgets with his upside are worth the current going rate
Click to expand...
If you can buy low on these two, that is a great deal. Definitely targeting/holding both right now. :shrug:
Wes Welker, we know what he is, a solid PPR high end #2 but what will he be when he loses Moss? Brady's decline begins? My biggest hang up here is not if he declines, it's when. He's the type of player you don't want to be late on because if you are it could be a cliff like fall.
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I don't understand this one. Brady will decline? Moss will leave? He wasn't still a solid 2 with Cassel starting? He's 28 and Brady's 32. This seems to me like selling Harrison when hit 30. I can't see selling him now. What if it's like 2007 all over again?
Pierre Thomas, ok I'm going to wait for him to get on the field first as my attempts at dealing him in July failed but assuming he comes back ok I'll be looking to send him packing, he looks good but his lack of job security scares me, given the potential ROI I think selling him has high profit potential
Click to expand...
I agree he is worth selling if you get decent return. Pretty clear the coaching staff doesn't see him as special, just good enough for now and a better fit to the Deuce role than Reggie Bush is.
 
MAC_32 said:
Players on my roster I am currently looking to dealWes Welker, we know what he is, a solid PPR high end #2 but what will he be when he loses Moss? Brady's decline begins? My biggest hang up here is not if he declines, it's when. He's the type of player you don't want to be late on because if you are it could be a cliff like fall.Pierre Thomas, ok I'm going to wait for him to get on the field first as my attempts at dealing him in July failed but assuming he comes back ok I'll be looking to send him packing, he looks good but his lack of job security scares me, given the potential ROI I think selling him has high profit potential
Click to expand...
I actually disagree with both of these. I think both these guys are excellent buys in dynasty leagues.On Welker: Its awful premature to begin worrying about a Brady decline. he could esily have 3-4 years of elite(top-3) QB play in him and Welker should be a major part of that. Plus, as we learned last year Welker doesn't really need Brady to be productive. It helps, but Welker is a good player on his own.On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.
 
valhallan said:
Willie Parker, likely about a week late here but he's been on my buyer radar all offseason, worth a shot
Click to expand...
Agreed. Mendenhall is not making the most of his opportunities and Parker really hasn't shown he's ready to slow down yet.
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Disagreed with this one. It looked to me last year like he was juuuuuuust starting to lose that quarter step that signifies decline. I think this year it becomes more obvious, and I think the Steelers don't bring him back unless there's no other team out there that wants him and he gives a steep discount. I love the way F&L put it when comparing Slaton to Parker, how the coaching staff has been cutting out his workload a slice at a time. I think this is the last year that FWP factors prominently in the Steelers' plans and it's time to get what you can for him and move on.
 
Fear & Loathing said:
Fear & Loathing said:
Steed said:
Since when did we get in the business of downgrading guys on the account of Chris Brown?
Click to expand...
It has little to do with Chris Brown and a lot to do with Kubiak making it clear on several occasions that he'd rather Slaton did not receive deep red zone carries. As I'm sure I don't have to tell you, those carries are more valuable than other carries, and Slaton needs to keep quite a few of them to maintain year-after-year value. One of my biggest concerns with Slaton is that he has some Willie Parker in him, where coaches will continue to take pieces of responsibility from him. Kubiak just took a huge chunk.
Click to expand...
Texans beat writer John McClain (one of the best beats around) expects Steve Slaton to lose 10-12 touches per game to Chris Brown. :unsure:
Click to expand...
I have Slaton in the FBG $35k contest. But I traded him away in my Dynasty league last year, so I am not a big time Slaton pimp. Which RB in the NFL gets 100% of his team's carries? No one. Steven Jackson is the closest thing we have to this. Adrian Peterson is pretty much the consensus #1 RB in Dynasty and Redraft leagues, and he still has a solid backup in Chester Taylor that will vulture some TDs and catches - especially in garbage time. Almost every talented RB in the NFL has one or two backups that will vulture fantasy points. So why all the fuss about Slaton? He's a young RB on a powerful offense with good hands. I think people are really overreacting to this news. Chris Brown is a RB with a history of injury problems - not a young stud RB waiting for his big chance.

 
travdogg said:
On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I agree 2 weeks ago would have been better. Before Mike Bell went 10/100/1. But there's a big difference between Knowshon (McDaniels investing a lot in taking him) and Pierre (if they had more picks in 09, what 3rd or 4th round rookie would also be there threatening his future).
 
jdoggydogg said:
I have Slaton in the FBG $35k contest. But I traded him away in my Dynasty league last year, so I am not a big time Slaton pimp. Which RB in the NFL gets 100% of his team's carries? No one. Steven Jackson is the closest thing we have to this. Adrian Peterson is pretty much the consensus #1 RB in Dynasty and Redraft leagues, and he still has a solid backup in Chester Taylor that will vulture some TDs and catches - especially in garbage time. Almost every talented RB in the NFL has one or two backups that will vulture fantasy points. So why all the fuss about Slaton? He's a young RB on a powerful offense with good hands. I think people are really overreacting to this news. Chris Brown is a RB with a history of injury problems - not a young stud RB waiting for his big chance.
Click to expand...
Last year, every RB on the entire roster combined to "steal" 8 touches a game from Slaton. This year, there's talk about one single RB "stealing" 10-12 (not to mention the extra 2-3 touches the RB3 and FB are going to merit). In addition, many of those 10-12 touches are going to be very high-value touches. It's not a reflection of the coaching staff's thoughts on Chris Brown, imo (as you said, he's just a guy with a history of injury problems), it's a reflection on the coaching staff's desire not to overwork Steve Slaton... a desire that certainly is *NOT* universal. Peterson might give up some touches, but Childress still has no compunction against working him to the bone. Kubiak definitely seems intent on "keeping Slaton fresh", though... which is coach-speak for making sure he doesn't get the kind of huge workload that is generally necessary for a huge fantasy season.It's not that I don't like Slaton... it's that I don't like Slaton as much as the guys who are convinced that this is all just smoke, which means I'm not going to get him if I don't have him already, and if I do have him already I'm looking to trade him to someone who values him higher than I do.
 
SSOG said:
jdoggydogg said:
I have Slaton in the FBG $35k contest. But I traded him away in my Dynasty league last year, so I am not a big time Slaton pimp. Which RB in the NFL gets 100% of his team's carries? No one. Steven Jackson is the closest thing we have to this. Adrian Peterson is pretty much the consensus #1 RB in Dynasty and Redraft leagues, and he still has a solid backup in Chester Taylor that will vulture some TDs and catches - especially in garbage time. Almost every talented RB in the NFL has one or two backups that will vulture fantasy points. So why all the fuss about Slaton? He's a young RB on a powerful offense with good hands. I think people are really overreacting to this news. Chris Brown is a RB with a history of injury problems - not a young stud RB waiting for his big chance.
Click to expand...
Last year, every RB on the entire roster combined to "steal" 8 touches a game from Slaton. This year, there's talk about one single RB "stealing" 10-12 (not to mention the extra 2-3 touches the RB3 and FB are going to merit). In addition, many of those 10-12 touches are going to be very high-value touches. It's not a reflection of the coaching staff's thoughts on Chris Brown, imo (as you said, he's just a guy with a history of injury problems), it's a reflection on the coaching staff's desire not to overwork Steve Slaton... a desire that certainly is *NOT* universal. Peterson might give up some touches, but Childress still has no compunction against working him to the bone. Kubiak definitely seems intent on "keeping Slaton fresh", though... which is coach-speak for making sure he doesn't get the kind of huge workload that is generally necessary for a huge fantasy season.It's not that I don't like Slaton... it's that I don't like Slaton as much as the guys who are convinced that this is all just smoke, which means I'm not going to get him if I don't have him already, and if I do have him already I'm looking to trade him to someone who values him higher than I do.
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I don't disagree with any of that. But look at Slaton's ADP. In redraft leagues and in the FBG contest, Slaton is not in the top 10. So he's being drafted after the studs, as he should be. But in a PPR league, he still represents value as a lower cost #1 RB.
 
thriftyrocker said:
travdogg said:
On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I agree 2 weeks ago would have been better. Before Mike Bell went 10/100/1. But there's a big difference between Knowshon (McDaniels investing a lot in taking him) and Pierre (if they had more picks in 09, what 3rd or 4th round rookie would also be there threatening his future).
Click to expand...
Yeah, Knowshon probably wasn't the best comparison. Maybe somebody more like Marion Barber would be a good comparison. But the point remains, nobody is downgrading Barber because of Choice(and Choice is FAR better than Mike Bell) so why is Bell considered a threat to Thomas.
 
If the Phillips announced that Choice is going to get the short yardage and goalline touches ... I imagine people would be backing off Barber at an astonishing rate?

If you are the bigger/less quick back splitting carries with Reggie Bush (or Felix Jones) and the coach decides to take your SY and GL work and give it to someone else ... you aren't worth very much in FF.

 
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