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2010 Rookie Draft Picks, Looking Ahead! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Iron_Far
- Start date
Brewzers
Footballguy
offdee
Footballguy
Snead looked terrible today.I ranked my top 5 QB's earlier, but I'm really not a big fan of any of them. Very weak NFL calibre class IMO.
Haha....might not be a bad idea.
offdee
Footballguy
Overall, I don't think this is going to be a very strong class (at least of top end talent)
QB's: Meh overall. Some decent college QB's but I don't think any of them have elite type NFL skills.
RB's: Only guys I'm remotely excited about are Jonathan Dwyer, Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller. With that being said Dwyer is the only one that has the potential to be a 20+ carry bellcow runner at the next level. Best and Spiller, albeit dynamic runners, are destined to be niched into a Reggie Bush/Leon Washington type of role and will never be relied upon as "the man".
WR's: Dez Bryant is the only thing close to a sure thing. After that, the only guys with any excitement surrounding them are Demaryius Thomas and Arrellious Benn but they have their flaws.
TE's: nadda, to get overly excited about.
So, that leaves a list of 2 players that have elite potential
1) Dez Bryant
2) Jonathan Dwyer
And a list of 4 players that have nice upside
3) Jahvid Best
4) CJ Spiller
5) Damaryius Thomas
6) Arrelious Benn
Honorable Mention to make some noise:
7) Ryan Matthews
8) Marshwan Gilyard
After that it's gonna be a crapshoot.
QB's: Meh overall. Some decent college QB's but I don't think any of them have elite type NFL skills.
RB's: Only guys I'm remotely excited about are Jonathan Dwyer, Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller. With that being said Dwyer is the only one that has the potential to be a 20+ carry bellcow runner at the next level. Best and Spiller, albeit dynamic runners, are destined to be niched into a Reggie Bush/Leon Washington type of role and will never be relied upon as "the man".
WR's: Dez Bryant is the only thing close to a sure thing. After that, the only guys with any excitement surrounding them are Demaryius Thomas and Arrellious Benn but they have their flaws.
TE's: nadda, to get overly excited about.
So, that leaves a list of 2 players that have elite potential
1) Dez Bryant
2) Jonathan Dwyer
And a list of 4 players that have nice upside
3) Jahvid Best
4) CJ Spiller
5) Damaryius Thomas
6) Arrelious Benn
Honorable Mention to make some noise:
7) Ryan Matthews
8) Marshwan Gilyard
After that it's gonna be a crapshoot.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Being a Bowling Green alum I've watched quite a bit of him. I really, really hope he makes it but I'm afraid lack of speed's going to be his issue. Not sure if he's a career backup at best, or a potential #2/possession WR type. Combine and Pro Day will likely determine his fate.
Balco
Footballguy
I'd put Matthews right in the top group of eligible backs. Guy has tremendous skills, just a great player. He is going to be a solid pro. Spiller really hasn't show consistent between the tackles running, bur I have not seen a more electric runner this year. His football speed is otherwordly. Guy just looks ten times faster than anyone else on the field. Should be a first rounder based on return potential/situational play alone.
jurb26
Footballguy
Is this assuming that Gresham doesn't come out?Dude is a stud waiting to happen in the NFL and has silly ability.
offdee
Footballguy
I thought Gresham already stated he is coming out, so he was part of my breakdown. IMO he's nothing overly special.
jurb26
Footballguy
Gresham is the best TE prospect in years IMO. We'll have to see how much the injury sidetracks him though.Prior to his injury I would say he was the only can't miss prospect. A great deal more than Bryant.
Matthews looks really good. for fantasy purposes i like his prospects a lot more then a guy like Spiller. Matthews has potential to be a feature RB whereas Spiller is going to be a RBBC type guy.He still needs to continue his dominance, but if he does the rest of the season he'll be as good a prospect as any in this class.Balco said:
EBF
Footballguy
Plenty of talent in this class. Remember that some of the best prospects in recent years didn't have much hype leading up to the draft. There are always some gems who slip into rounds 2-4 and become solid pro players. No one thought Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, or Steve Smith were can't-miss stars. There's always talent out there. You just have to bet on the right horse.
I agree that the RB ranks look a little thin at the top, but there are plenty of strong sleeper candidates. Someone like Ryan Matthews or Stafon Johnson could easily become a starter at the next level. At WR you've got the stud Bryant and some nice second tier guys like Gilyard and Thomas. You can be that more names will emerge in the postseason like they always do.
When the dust settles, there will be plenty of appealing options to choose from.
I agree that the RB ranks look a little thin at the top, but there are plenty of strong sleeper candidates. Someone like Ryan Matthews or Stafon Johnson could easily become a starter at the next level. At WR you've got the stud Bryant and some nice second tier guys like Gilyard and Thomas. You can be that more names will emerge in the postseason like they always do.
When the dust settles, there will be plenty of appealing options to choose from.
kremenull
Footballguy
jurb26 said:
Totally agree! Even with the injury, since I believe it was a meniscus and not structural (ACL or other ligament), this guy should fully recover. Gresham is the best skill position talent in the draft, bar none. I will not be surprised if he goes Top 10-12 even coming off the knee injury. Stardom within 2-3 seasons is a virtual lock, barring another injury that is. In ranking him against the current NFL TEs, if he goes to a pretty good situation I'd rank him Top 6 for dynasty, ahead of the Carlsons, Celeks, V.Davis', and O.Daniels of the world. I'd put him right there towards the top of the 2nd tier grouping.
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EBF
Footballguy
Meh. Pretty sure we've already had this debate in this same thread. TEs have to be pretty special to warrant much attention in FF leagues and in the top 15 of the NFL draft. I haven't seen anything from Gresham that makes me think he'll be better than average at the next level.jurb26 said:Totally agree! Even with the injury, since I believe it was a meniscus and not structural (ACL or other ligament), this guy should fully recover. Gresham is the best skill position talent in the draft, bar none. I will not be surprised if he goes Top 10-12 even coming off the knee injury. Stardom within 2-3 seasons is a virtual lock, barring another injury that is. In ranking him against the current NFL TEs, if he goes to a pretty good situation I'd rank him Top 6 for dynasty, ahead of the Carlsons, Celeks, V.Davis', and O.Daniels of the world. I'd put him right there towards the top of the 2nd tier grouping.
kremenull
Footballguy
My preliminary RB rankings at this point for 2010 would be....assuming a few extra early entrants in anticipation of the looming rookie cap
1(a). C.J. Spiller........One word, "Electric"
1(b). Jonathan Dwyer....what a misuse of talent on those repeated dive plays......Geeeesh.... From his frosh season, looks like the guy can actually run very well out of the pro set.
3. Jahvid Best....slightly falling a bit, will definitely need to improve strength at the next level
4. Ryan Mathews.....really liking this guy even more now as he is no longer flying under the radar....Not an uber-stud talent but exhibits very good (and natural) running skills.....could be a Thomas Jones type in the NFL
5. Montario Hardesty......with a good postseason, wouldn't surprise me if he ends up a late 2nd to early 3rd rounder come draft time
6. Joe McKnight......looks like a Leon Washington clone
7. DeMarco Murray....stock falling, send out a life raft soon......still has time to impress
8. Allen Bradford....caught up in a numbers game in the Trojan backfield, but could be a diamond in the rough for some pro team...nice power/speed ratio
9. Evan Royster......decent back but nothing gets me excited about him
10(a) Emmanuel Moody....a forgotten man in another miscast system....has a nice blend of good, but not great size and speed....sort of a Donald Brown type
10(b) Javarris James.....looked mighty impressive vs Oklahoma, could he resurface back on the map of relevance?
10© Noel Devine......another potential early entrant due to the "rookie cap"...."Darren Sproles Remix"
As an aside, the best skill position players (pro prospects, that is) in all of college football, regardless of class, IMO...........
QB - Terrell Pryor.....still some maturation and development left for him to complete, but I trust he gets there in time for his NFL entrance in 2011
RB - Mark Ingram.....Looks like a very reliable, heavy-duty RB with the desire to excell........top-notch pedigree - prototypical size and nice athleticism with NFL genes.....
WR - Michael Floyd - One word, "Beast"
TE - Jermaine Gresham - Out of sight, but not out of (NFL) minds......Can't miss NFL stud, a bigger Gates
1(a). C.J. Spiller........One word, "Electric"
1(b). Jonathan Dwyer....what a misuse of talent on those repeated dive plays......Geeeesh.... From his frosh season, looks like the guy can actually run very well out of the pro set.
3. Jahvid Best....slightly falling a bit, will definitely need to improve strength at the next level
4. Ryan Mathews.....really liking this guy even more now as he is no longer flying under the radar....Not an uber-stud talent but exhibits very good (and natural) running skills.....could be a Thomas Jones type in the NFL
5. Montario Hardesty......with a good postseason, wouldn't surprise me if he ends up a late 2nd to early 3rd rounder come draft time
6. Joe McKnight......looks like a Leon Washington clone
7. DeMarco Murray....stock falling, send out a life raft soon......still has time to impress
8. Allen Bradford....caught up in a numbers game in the Trojan backfield, but could be a diamond in the rough for some pro team...nice power/speed ratio
9. Evan Royster......decent back but nothing gets me excited about him
10(a) Emmanuel Moody....a forgotten man in another miscast system....has a nice blend of good, but not great size and speed....sort of a Donald Brown type
10(b) Javarris James.....looked mighty impressive vs Oklahoma, could he resurface back on the map of relevance?
10© Noel Devine......another potential early entrant due to the "rookie cap"...."Darren Sproles Remix"
As an aside, the best skill position players (pro prospects, that is) in all of college football, regardless of class, IMO...........
QB - Terrell Pryor.....still some maturation and development left for him to complete, but I trust he gets there in time for his NFL entrance in 2011
RB - Mark Ingram.....Looks like a very reliable, heavy-duty RB with the desire to excell........top-notch pedigree - prototypical size and nice athleticism with NFL genes.....
WR - Michael Floyd - One word, "Beast"
TE - Jermaine Gresham - Out of sight, but not out of (NFL) minds......Can't miss NFL stud, a bigger Gates
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I don't share in the enthusiasm here. Bryant is who I like right now. Dwyer could be something but I really am having my doubts that he will translate. I don't see any other RBS who excite me at all. I'm about excited with Benn as I was with Nicks, which in comparision to 2009 would make my #2 WR in 10 equal to my #5 in 09. Dwyer would compare to my #2 RB from 09. Next up would be Best or Spiller and I have Best around McCoy whom I had as my #5 RB this year. Dwyer, Bryant, Gresham are the only ones who I like. The QBs may just end up being the best part of this class which doesn't bode well for fantasy. This is shaping up to be the worst rookie class in years and that's assuming all the underclassmen rush out to the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
Long way to go before we can say much about the strength of this class. Bear in mind that most draft pundits and draft sites are playing catch up. They hype the "name" players that everyone knows about, but they don't jump on the obscure guys until very late in the process. People like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Eddie Royal, Joe Flacco, and Greg Jennings were basically complete unknowns to the general draft punditry until it became obvious that they would be early picks. Most of the names people toss around in this thread are the same guys everyone has known about for months. There are probably a lot of quality prospects that haven't been "outed" to the general public. Over the next six months the combine, Senior Bowl, and NFL draft will introduce a new list of viable prospects and FF owners will be excited about the rookie crop like they always are.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
No doubt about that. Last year at this time I was excited with Wells, Moreno, Greene, McCoy , Crabtree, Maclin, Britt, Harvin. For me Brown and Nicks took into much later in the season for me to get into much. Basically I liked 4 RBS and 4 WRS last season at this point and this year I like Bryant, Benn and Dwyer.... So this year only 1 RB and 2 WR. I'll clarify that 365 days ago I was much higher on McCoy that I was come the April draft, that is why he was included on the list.
coolnerd
Footballguy
Tall player, but needs to hit the buffet, was ok not outstanding against a decent team before injuring his non-throwing arm. In this game looked draftable, not elite.
EBF
Footballguy
Big game for CJ Spiller today. 100+ rushing yards on 9 carries vs. Wake Forest.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4570299&a...egoryid=2564308
I suspect that he'll be a highly-debated prospect this offseason. On the one hand, he doesn't have conventional featured back lower body strength and he's a suspect runner between the tackles. On the other hand, he's one of the few top prospects in this draft class who clearly has the "wow" factor. He seems to bust a 50+ yard play every week.
Watching the USC/ND game. Will post some thoughts later.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4570299&a...egoryid=2564308
I suspect that he'll be a highly-debated prospect this offseason. On the one hand, he doesn't have conventional featured back lower body strength and he's a suspect runner between the tackles. On the other hand, he's one of the few top prospects in this draft class who clearly has the "wow" factor. He seems to bust a 50+ yard play every week.
Watching the USC/ND game. Will post some thoughts later.
Balco
Footballguy
That's not a bad comparison at all, although Spiller seems a little faster, and Jones, IMO, is a little better between the tackles. Spiller is just electric, he is so fast. Not just track fast, football fast (there is a difference, for some guys, that sprinters speed doesn't translate when they put on the pads). I am about ready to jump fully on board his bandwagon.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
LOL. And on Bests other 12 carries, he got 8 yards. The 93 yard run was only because of horrible tackling.
EBF
Footballguy
Well this game is winding down. Notre Dame is playing hard, but they're clearly outclassed by USC's superior across the board athleticism. Every time the Irish win a few games the media train picks up and overhypes them. Truth is they haven't been an elite program for years. They always seem to get killed when they play USC or fluke their way into a major bowl game.
QBs - Don't have much to say about Clausen. He's been making some good throws, but it's hard to judge him with his inferior supporting cast. The screaming at teammates and refs after every play seems kind of Busch league. Barkley has a cannon for an arm. If he can develop better timing over the next three seasons then he's probably going to be a very high draft pick when his time comes.
RBs - No one on Notre Dame has stood out so far. Allen Bradford has some speed and power, but he hasn't impressed me overall. He looks like a straight-line runner with little-to-no elusiveness. I don't think I've seen him make a good cut yet. I thought he might be a good NFL sleeper, but he didn't show me anything today. Joe McKnight looks like his usual self: mediocre with the occasional dash of brilliance. I'm curious to see where he goes in the NFL draft. To me looks like a backup/situational runner. Sort of a poor man's Leon Washington.
WRs - Michael Floyd is out for Notre Dame. Golden Tate made one great leaping catch in tight double coverage, but has otherwise been invisible. Damian Williams has looked pretty good. I've always been lukewarm on his pro potential, but he's pretty big and his straight line speed is legit. If teams are convinced that his production isn't a mirage then I could see him going as high as the late first round. He looks like a bit of a long strider to me and I wonder what type of separation he'll be able to get in the NFL. I think he's somewhat similar to Jeremy Maclin. USC has a bevvy of unheralded WRs who could eventually find themselves on a pro roster. Ronald Johnson is quietly a good prospect in his own right. He's a dynamic athlete with good deep speed. Brice Butler looks promising and David Ausberry will also have a chance to make some noise once the older guys move on. I would suggest keeping an eye on this situation. There's some talent here.
TEs - I've been talking about Anthony McCoy since the preseason and today was his national coming out party. This guy is the total package at TE. He has a huge frame with good straight line speed and reliable hands. He's also a punishing blocker on the line of scrimmage. Don't be surprised if he's the first TE drafted come April. His stock is on the uptick (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/10/05/pauline.risers.sliders/) and his performance today will only enhance his profile.
DEFENSE - Notre Dame LB Manti Te'o looks as good as advertised. In time he should become a star for them. Everyone talks about USC safety Taylor Mays like he's a superstar, but I rarely see him make standout plays. He appears to be a better athlete than football player. I think he has been overrated based on the fact that he looks like an All-Star in pads (until the play starts). Expect Al Davis to fall for the measurables and draft him in the top 5. DE Everson Griffin and LB Chris Galippo look like the real standouts for USC.
QBs - Don't have much to say about Clausen. He's been making some good throws, but it's hard to judge him with his inferior supporting cast. The screaming at teammates and refs after every play seems kind of Busch league. Barkley has a cannon for an arm. If he can develop better timing over the next three seasons then he's probably going to be a very high draft pick when his time comes.
RBs - No one on Notre Dame has stood out so far. Allen Bradford has some speed and power, but he hasn't impressed me overall. He looks like a straight-line runner with little-to-no elusiveness. I don't think I've seen him make a good cut yet. I thought he might be a good NFL sleeper, but he didn't show me anything today. Joe McKnight looks like his usual self: mediocre with the occasional dash of brilliance. I'm curious to see where he goes in the NFL draft. To me looks like a backup/situational runner. Sort of a poor man's Leon Washington.
WRs - Michael Floyd is out for Notre Dame. Golden Tate made one great leaping catch in tight double coverage, but has otherwise been invisible. Damian Williams has looked pretty good. I've always been lukewarm on his pro potential, but he's pretty big and his straight line speed is legit. If teams are convinced that his production isn't a mirage then I could see him going as high as the late first round. He looks like a bit of a long strider to me and I wonder what type of separation he'll be able to get in the NFL. I think he's somewhat similar to Jeremy Maclin. USC has a bevvy of unheralded WRs who could eventually find themselves on a pro roster. Ronald Johnson is quietly a good prospect in his own right. He's a dynamic athlete with good deep speed. Brice Butler looks promising and David Ausberry will also have a chance to make some noise once the older guys move on. I would suggest keeping an eye on this situation. There's some talent here.
TEs - I've been talking about Anthony McCoy since the preseason and today was his national coming out party. This guy is the total package at TE. He has a huge frame with good straight line speed and reliable hands. He's also a punishing blocker on the line of scrimmage. Don't be surprised if he's the first TE drafted come April. His stock is on the uptick (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/10/05/pauline.risers.sliders/) and his performance today will only enhance his profile.
DEFENSE - Notre Dame LB Manti Te'o looks as good as advertised. In time he should become a star for them. Everyone talks about USC safety Taylor Mays like he's a superstar, but I rarely see him make standout plays. He appears to be a better athlete than football player. I think he has been overrated based on the fact that he looks like an All-Star in pads (until the play starts). Expect Al Davis to fall for the measurables and draft him in the top 5. DE Everson Griffin and LB Chris Galippo look like the real standouts for USC.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yep, we should always discount long runs from their averages. If memory serves Barry Sanders was dropped for a loss a lot, then he would break a big one.ETA: I guess we should ignore the 2 receptions for 51 yds and a TD as well.Multiple Scores said:
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EBF
Footballguy
After seeing some of the games today, I think it will be fun to watch the careers of USC QB Matt Barkley and Stanford QB Andrew Luck. Barkley is improving every week and it seems inevitable that he'll eventually become the next USC QB chosen in the top 10 of the NFL draft. Luck isn't getting any national press yet, but his numbers are just as impressive as Barkley's and he has shown a lot of potential when I've seen him play. NFL build, NFL bloodlines, live arm, and excellent intangibles/instincts. I suspect we'll be hearing much more of these two in the coming seasons.
That's not to mention Washington's Jake Locker, who could find himself taken among the top 3 QBs if he decides to enter the draft this year. I think he should stay in school to gain more experience, but scouts love his potential and it might be difficult for him to pass up first round money. The misfortunes of Sam Bradford and the slumping stock of Jevan Snead could force his hand. Either way, there's a lot of QB talent in the Pac-10 right now.
That's not to mention Washington's Jake Locker, who could find himself taken among the top 3 QBs if he decides to enter the draft this year. I think he should stay in school to gain more experience, but scouts love his potential and it might be difficult for him to pass up first round money. The misfortunes of Sam Bradford and the slumping stock of Jevan Snead could force his hand. Either way, there's a lot of QB talent in the Pac-10 right now.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
I'm starting to think Demaryius Thomas is a Terrell Owens-caliber talent. He only had one catch Saturday (Tech's only pass completion), but it was impressive. He'll need work coming out of that offense, but he's big, fast, strong and can really go get the ball.
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offdee
Footballguy
What's the deal with the name on the back of his jersey reading. B. Thomas ?Why "B." and not "D." ?At first I thought it was just an error by the jersey name printing guy, but the past 3 games it's been like that.
Balco
Footballguy
Guy is a beast. One thing I like as well, as to play in Paul Johnson's offense, you have to block. Thomas is an excellent blocker as well, in addition to being a great receiver. I was surprised when he didn't transfer when Johnson came in. If memory serves me correct, Johnson was a hot shot, highly rated WR coming out of high school. Yet he stuck around, which also tells me something.
Balco
Footballguy
There are some very exciting QB prospects for the coming years. I have touted Bradford on this board as the clear cut # 1, a Peyton Manning like talent, but this shoulder injury has me really concerned, especially since: (a) It's his throwing shoulder and (b) He already re injured it. It really is a shame, because the guy has franchise quarterback ability.Steve Sarkisian coming to Washington was probably the best thing to happen to Locker. He has always had the talent, but Sarkisian is really helping Locker Harness it. He looks great. Another year would probably benefit him, but like you said, it would be tough to turn down first round money. But if he stays another year, he can be a top 3 pick. Snead has not impressed me at all. Haven't seen Luck, I'll have to watch a couple Stanford games. Something about the kid annoys me, probably due to his ridiculous "hey look at me!" press conference when he signed with Notre Dame, but Clausen has impressed me quite a bit. He can make all the throws, my only knock being he holds the ball a little too long (which obviously is correctable).
Another big game from:
Demaryius Thomas - 3 for 73 yards. Impressive stats for this kid in a triple option offense
Jonathan Dwyer - 25 for 125 yards - solidifying the #1 running back spot for me. He's got the size/talent to be a workhorse back in the NFL.
Demaryius Thomas - 3 for 73 yards. Impressive stats for this kid in a triple option offense
Jonathan Dwyer - 25 for 125 yards - solidifying the #1 running back spot for me. He's got the size/talent to be a workhorse back in the NFL.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I agree. A true franchise QB if his shoulder checks out. Peyton is a good comparison, but Bradford is a better athlete. Pretty good combination.
BTW, lots & lots of talent in this class. Really deep, IMO. There'll be some late-bloomers emerge, as well (which is typical).
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
I wouldn't compare Bradford to Manning because he obviously doesn't have nearly the brain that Manning has or he would have declared for the 2009 draftI agree. A true franchise QB if his shoulder checks out. Peyton is a good comparison, but Bradford is a better athlete. Pretty good combination.BTW, lots & lots of talent in this class. Really deep, IMO. There'll be some late-bloomers emerge, as well (which is typical).
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'll take a shot at the RB/WRs without regard for who is likely to come out when... alpha within tiers...
Top Tier:
DeAndre Brown
Dez Bryant
Jonathan Dwyer
Mark Ingram
Demaryius Thomas
2nd Tier:
Jonathan Baldwin
Jahvid Best
Michael Floyd
AJ Green
Hunter Kendall
Ryan Matthews
DeMarco Murray
Charles Scott
Golden Tate
Need more info:
LeGarrette Blount
Ronald Johnson
Brandon LaFell
Jaquizz Rogers
Marc Tyler
Overrated:
A Benn
Julio Jones
Joe McKnight
Evan Royster
CJ Spiller
Damian Williams
Top Tier:
DeAndre Brown
Dez Bryant
Jonathan Dwyer
Mark Ingram
Demaryius Thomas
2nd Tier:
Jonathan Baldwin
Jahvid Best
Michael Floyd
AJ Green
Hunter Kendall
Ryan Matthews
DeMarco Murray
Charles Scott
Golden Tate
Need more info:
LeGarrette Blount
Ronald Johnson
Brandon LaFell
Jaquizz Rogers
Marc Tyler
Overrated:
A Benn
Julio Jones
Joe McKnight
Evan Royster
CJ Spiller
Damian Williams
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Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Nevermind Royster, I didn't think he was rated high enough to be overrated, but could you unpack the rest of this list a little. I think those are all legit NFL talents with substantial potential. I'd be hard pressed to take an RB over Spiller in this class.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Sure...I'm more confident about A Benn than J Jones since Benn's got more of a track record, but basically neither of those guys makes plays. NFL quality WRs almost always make plays in college. Obviously Jones could improve since we're projecting two+ years out.
Royster is a bum. No idea how he's rated as a 1st/2nd rounder at this point. I bet he falls like a stone like Javon Ringer did after the combine.
As for McKnight and Spiller... I think that guys that small better put up absolutely eye-popping numbers of one sort or another. Compare Spiller's college production to Reggie Bush or Jahvid Best's. It's not even in the same league (particularly the rushing #s). It's always possible that one of them will go the Chris Johnson route and break the timing clock at the combine - but using the projected 40 times it doesn't look like either guy is a threat to go sub 4.3.
Damien Williams is more of a hunch, so I won't try to defend that one.
I should also say that I don't think 1st and 2nd round picks (NFL picks) should be used on role-players. So I'm not saying that those guys don't have a place in the NFL (Spiller should be a great 3rd down guy) - just that they aren't 1st round quality in my opinion.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Uh, nice attempt at a dig, except that Manning himself stayed for his senior season when he likely would have been #1 overall after his junior year. (In fact, he'd already completed his degree). #1 QB in the 1997 draft was Jim Druckenmiller.[interesting to contemplate how the NFL might have been different if the Rams had selected Manning in 1997 rather than Pace].I wouldn't compare Bradford to Manning because he obviously doesn't have nearly the brain that Manning has or he would have declared for the 2009 draftI agree. A true franchise QB if his shoulder checks out. Peyton is a good comparison, but Bradford is a better athlete. Pretty good combination.BTW, lots & lots of talent in this class. Really deep, IMO. There'll be some late-bloomers emerge, as well (which is typical).
EBF
Footballguy
Had good seats at the Stanford/Arizona State game tonight. Quick notes:
- Arizona State is not very good. I didn't pay much attention to their defensive players, but none of their offensive skill players showed me much tonight. QB Danny Sullivan is pretty terrible. I would expect him to be nudged out of the way by one of the backups in the near future. WR Gerell Robinson is a player that I liked out of high school, but he didn't get many opportunities in this game.
- RB Toby Gerhart was the key prospect in this game for 2010 purposes. He's been a prolific player for the past two seasons. I had my doubts about his pro potential last season, but he's starting to make a believer out of me. He's a slashing runner whose biggest asset is his power. He's a rock solid 235 pounds with excellent leg drive. The first hit rarely brings him down. He's not going to break ankles in the open field, but he's more elusive than you'd think. His speed and acceleration are both well above average for a bigger back. I think he would be effective as a 10-15 carry per game committee back for a team like Houston. I don't think he has the sheer burst or durability to be a long term NFL starter. He's been durable this season, but he takes a lot of hits and I think it would wear him down quickly at the pro level. FWIW, he's probably the best "white" RB I've seen. I think he would be a good value as a 4th round NFL pick.
- I've already mentioned Stanford QB Andrew Luck in this thread. He's not eligible for the 2010 draft because he's only a redshirt freshman, but he's a player that all draftniks should get to know. He has quietly put together some very impressive statistics this season. He was a five star prospect out of high school and his dad played QB in the NFL. Based on what I've seen, Andrew will eventually follow in his father's footsteps. He has all of the physical gifts needed to play on Sundays. He can make all the throws, he's big, he has surprising mobility, and he shows the "it" factor to sense the rush and make positive plays out of nothing (a little bit like Roethlisberger in this regard). It's early, but I think he has the potential to be a franchise QB and a top 5-10 draft pick if he continues to improve as one would expect.
- Arizona State is not very good. I didn't pay much attention to their defensive players, but none of their offensive skill players showed me much tonight. QB Danny Sullivan is pretty terrible. I would expect him to be nudged out of the way by one of the backups in the near future. WR Gerell Robinson is a player that I liked out of high school, but he didn't get many opportunities in this game.
- RB Toby Gerhart was the key prospect in this game for 2010 purposes. He's been a prolific player for the past two seasons. I had my doubts about his pro potential last season, but he's starting to make a believer out of me. He's a slashing runner whose biggest asset is his power. He's a rock solid 235 pounds with excellent leg drive. The first hit rarely brings him down. He's not going to break ankles in the open field, but he's more elusive than you'd think. His speed and acceleration are both well above average for a bigger back. I think he would be effective as a 10-15 carry per game committee back for a team like Houston. I don't think he has the sheer burst or durability to be a long term NFL starter. He's been durable this season, but he takes a lot of hits and I think it would wear him down quickly at the pro level. FWIW, he's probably the best "white" RB I've seen. I think he would be a good value as a 4th round NFL pick.
- I've already mentioned Stanford QB Andrew Luck in this thread. He's not eligible for the 2010 draft because he's only a redshirt freshman, but he's a player that all draftniks should get to know. He has quietly put together some very impressive statistics this season. He was a five star prospect out of high school and his dad played QB in the NFL. Based on what I've seen, Andrew will eventually follow in his father's footsteps. He has all of the physical gifts needed to play on Sundays. He can make all the throws, he's big, he has surprising mobility, and he shows the "it" factor to sense the rush and make positive plays out of nothing (a little bit like Roethlisberger in this regard). It's early, but I think he has the potential to be a franchise QB and a top 5-10 draft pick if he continues to improve as one would expect.
EBF
Footballguy
Spiller is a freak athlete and one of the top "wow" players in this year's class. The biggest question for him is what kind of role will he have in the NFL? He can hurt teams in so many ways. He's lethal as a runner, a receiver, and a return specialist. That said, he's not a conventional every down back who figures to carry the entire load on his own. He'll be a nice weapon for a creative offensive coordinator, but I see him as more of a RBBC guy than a future Tomlinson or Faulk.
NorrisB
Footballguy
Manning did the same thingI wouldn't compare Bradford to Manning because he obviously doesn't have nearly the brain that Manning has or he would have declared for the 2009 draftI agree. A true franchise QB if his shoulder checks out. Peyton is a good comparison, but Bradford is a better athlete. Pretty good combination.BTW, lots & lots of talent in this class. Really deep, IMO. There'll be some late-bloomers emerge, as well (which is typical).
kremenull
Footballguy
You do know that Felix is at or very near 220 lbs, right? To state that he cannot carry a full load is something that is not proven, yet in the end it will not matter either way 'cause guys like this aren't asked to carry a full load (300+ carries) and they still can be very productive. I don't believe that Chris Johnson has anything in his physical makeup over either of these guys (Spiller or Felix) that makes him more able to carry a heavier load, and yet he received over 250 carries in '08. Felix is certainly physically capable of that, he just has to stay healthy. Spiller and Chris Johnson are built almost exactly alike, IMO.
kremenull
Footballguy
Exactly! And these kind of guys are increasingly becoming more valuable to teams, especially the good teams that don't have a ton of needs. As the NFL 1st Rd moves along, there is no way he should slip by everyone, as I'd expect teams like Green Bay, New England, Cincinnati, and Seattle to have this guy on their radar. Not to mention the horrible teams that lack dynamic offensive talent picking earlier in the 1st. Almost the entire league is a full-blown RBBC, so that will not be an issue. Fantasy players should have adjusted to this reality already, but if they haven't then they'll be behind the curve.......
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Agree on Spiller except for the idea that he's lethal as a runner. Small, fast backs have an advantage in college that doesn't always translate to the NFL, and compared to his small-back peers he's not been anything special as a ball carrier:
Spiller... 5.8 ypc and a TD on 4.6% of his carries
Bush... 7.7 ypc and a TD on 6.4%
Best... 7.6 ypc and a TD on 10.8%
As for Chris Johnson... he ran a 4.24. That's a great equalizer for someone this tiny (by NFL RB standards). Spiller's projected as a 4.37 - good, but not great for someone that small. Charles, McFadden and Bush all ran similar times - 4.3x is the norm for backs his size.
Again, I'm not suggesting that Spiller won't be successful in the NFL. But I don't see him as an every down guy, and there are safer picks (Dwyer, Ingram) in terms of finding a long-term FF RB#1.
Spiller... 5.8 ypc and a TD on 4.6% of his carries
Bush... 7.7 ypc and a TD on 6.4%
Best... 7.6 ypc and a TD on 10.8%
As for Chris Johnson... he ran a 4.24. That's a great equalizer for someone this tiny (by NFL RB standards). Spiller's projected as a 4.37 - good, but not great for someone that small. Charles, McFadden and Bush all ran similar times - 4.3x is the norm for backs his size.
Again, I'm not suggesting that Spiller won't be successful in the NFL. But I don't see him as an every down guy, and there are safer picks (Dwyer, Ingram) in terms of finding a long-term FF RB#1.
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