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Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)

congrats...your blog and this thread (especially your, SSOG's and EBF's contributions among many other notable ones) are among the few reasons I keep coming back to this board and all contribute significantly to my management style (which has been very successful so far considering this is my 3rd season of Dyno).

I probably owe you royalties on my championship prize money from last season

 
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Thoughts on Roethlisberger moving forward?
Will still be an under-rated stud.
what does this mean? log jammed after Brady/Brees/Manning?
Ben has always been a little under-rated, I think... I think he is as good as anyone (and in a system now where he will put up as good numbers as anyone) beyond those top 3. 2-3 years ago, I think we saw some people put him as a top 5 overall kind of guy.... and now I think he's back in that conversation. TO be honest, I've always been a big fan (but that might have come from being married to a PIttsburgh woman!) .... :lmao:
 
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F&L, love the blog, i'm always checking it out. great work!

wanted an opinion on P.Manning's value.

Manning has the highest avg PPG in my league and im trying to package him for a lesser qb and another upgrade. what packages do you think could be ffair?

i'm currently 4-4 (have double headers) and ive had some tough breaks and early game injuries kill me..what ,ove, if any would you make. KEEP 10**

Leinart, M

Manning, P

Warner, K

Bush, R

Choice, T

Gore, F

Green-Ellis, B

McCoy, L

Slaton, S

Westbrook, B

Avery, D

Bess, D

Fitzgerald, L

Johnson, A

Johnson, C

Thomas, M (TS)

Coffman, C (TS)

Witten, J

Carter, A

Hayes, W

Jackson, L

Barnett, N

Boley, M

Briggs, L

Crowder, C

Clements, N

Alexander, G

Branch, T

Dahl, C

DeCoud, T

 
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F&L, love the blog, i'm always checking it out. great work!wanted an opinion on P.Manning's value. Manning has the highest avg PPG in my league and im trying to package him for a lesser qb and another upgrade. what packages do you think could be ffair?i'm currently 4-4 (have double headers) and ive had some tough breaks and early game injuries kill me..what ,ove, if any would you make. KEEP 10**
I'd keep Peyton Manning and find a different way to add another upgrade. It's rarely a good idea to trade the best player on your roster to patch over another position.
 
Manning's also got a $37/340 salary (worth every dollar) so keeping him will cost me $39. I was thinking going after a Cutler or Flacco whilr obtaining a top LBer or even RB could be useful

 
Manning's also got a $37/340 salary (worth every dollar) so keeping him will cost me $39. I was thinking going after a Cutler or Flacco whilr obtaining a top LBer or even RB could be useful
Sorry, the boys. I'm just not good at answering questions like this. My usual advice is to study up, make sure you target the player you like, and go after him. If you have targeted players in mind and want an opinion on them, it's much easier to chip in with the two cents.
 
Every year in my 2QB league I go dumpster diving for the next Brady/Romo/Orton/Edwards type that goes from backup to starter. I can only find 4 right now:

Matt Moore - produced decent numbers in 3 starts in 2007

Brett Ratliff - not yet getting any work with the 1s in practice

Bruce Gradkowski - mmm, maybe he had his chance already

Ryan Fitzpatrick - keeps the job?

Does anyone have any insights/opinions/gut-feelings on these guys?
I'd been fighting it for a couple of weeks, but I finally caved and added Matt Moore based on the rumors that would be getting the start for the Panthers. I really think he's nothing more than an emergency arm, but he'll be getting an extended audition and I've been known to be spectacularly wrong before, so why not.Ratliff... I wouldn't touch any QB that can't get a look on the Browns. Worst case scenario, he really is worse than Derrick Anderson and Brady Quinn. Best case scenario... he's marginally better than Derrick Anderson and Brady Quinn, but his "prize" is getting stuck as the QB of the Browns. Oof.

Bruce Gradkowski... the big difference between Bruce Gradkowski and Matt Moore, to me, is that I think Matt Moore sucks... but I KNOW Bruce Gradkowski sucks. If your career ypa is under 5, and you've backed up Luke McCown, Derrick Anderson, *AND* Jamarcus Russel (i.e. you haven't been good enough to beat out any of those three), then I don't want you on my roster. I think an empty roster spot might have more upside than Gradkowski. I will gladly gamble on someone I think sucks if I have a compelling reason to (either opportunity or because other people disagree and think highly of him), but I'll never gamble on someone I know sucks.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is an interesting name, but ultimately, I just don't think he has the physical tools to succeed. Career backup.

Who says I don't have most of those guys already on my roster. I also mentioned that I was talking about rosters 20 deep or better. I had Austin and bailed on him too early, releasing him after week 2. I'm not saying I don't make mistakes but I can pick up the guys like Caddy & Sims-Walker and Schilens & Caldwell too. In fact, that sounds exactly like the end of my benches and I have rostered every single player you just listed (except Collie) at one point this year. Of course you don't pass up the opportunity to stockpile talent and still use a spot or two for spec players. It's how I ended up with good teams and guys like Ced Benson who break out and guys like L.J. that flop are on my rosters as back filler. The point is, you roster players because you think they will be worth more than you have to pay. Either way you go about it, you can be right or wrong, but that's FFB 101. I think its too narrow of a view to limit yourself to doing it just one way, missing out on other opportunities. You could have gotten 3 or 4 of the guys you just listed plus a 3rd round draft pick for Caddy just over a month ago. Just 'cause someone won't start for you doesn't mean they won't start for some other unlucky team.
I've never been in a situation where there wasn't someone on the street who I liked, and that's where I'd have to be in order to start rostering players I thought were bad just because they might see an increase in value. Fantasy football is very hard to predict, and I feel far more comfortable betting on talent than I do betting on what my leaguemates' perceptions might be a month or two down the road.It's true that the Caddy gamble paid off... assuming you moved him at the right time. If you didn't, then you got nothing out of it, except a roster spot that could have been used on one of the WRs I listed (because if I'd had Caddy, I wouldn't have been able to fit one of those guys). I don't feel like I'm "limiting myself" by not speculating on players, I just feel like I have a very clear vision of how to construct my team, and that vision is "acquire talent". I suppose I could achieve that vision by acquiring non-talent and then trading it for talent, but it seems awfully convoluted. I'd rather cut out the middle man and just acquire talent without that whole non-talent step in the middle.

If I had acquired Caddy, I couldn't have traded him for 3-4 of the WRs on that list, anyway. I could have traded him for, at most, 1 of the guys on that list... because the only empty roster spot I'd have that wasn't devoted to guys whose talent I already liked would be the roster spot taken up by Caddy himself.

Ben has always been a little under-rated, I think... I think he is as good as anyone (and in a system now where he will put up as good numbers as anyone) beyond those top 3. 2-3 years ago, I think we saw some people put him as a top 5 overall kind of guy.... and now I think he's back in that conversation. TO be honest, I've always been a big fan (but that might have come from being married to a PIttsburgh woman!) .... :rolleyes:
Last season, before my rookie draft, I had Ben and Cutler on my squad, and I traded away Cutler because I felt like he was Ben's backup, but that he'd still fetch a higher price than Ben (I wound up getting Jonathan Stewart, although I was bummed out at the thought of how much more I could have gotten if I'd waited until a month into the season). This season, two weeks ago, I had Ben and Schaub and traded away Schaub because I felt like he was Ben's backup, but that he'd still fetch a higher price than Ben. I'll admit I've had some ups and downs with my "Roll with Ben" strategy, but all in all, I'm very pleased with the decision to keep Ben and move Cutler/Schaub instead of vice versa. Not only did it fetch me more value than moving Ben would have, but I also feel like I still have the best of the three QBs on my roster.
How would you rank these players in a PPR dynasty?

L.McCoy

S.Greene

M.Turner

Deangelo Williams

D.Bowe

M.Crabtree

Thanks!
DeAngeloTurner

Bowe

Crabtree

McCoy

Shonn Greene

 
Every year in my 2QB league I go dumpster diving for the next Brady/Romo/Orton/Edwards type that goes from backup to starter. I can only find 4 right now:

Matt Moore - produced decent numbers in 3 starts in 2007

Brett Ratliff - not yet getting any work with the 1s in practice

Bruce Gradkowski - mmm, maybe he had his chance already

Ryan Fitzpatrick - keeps the job?

Does anyone have any insights/opinions/gut-feelings on these guys?
Ratliff... I wouldn't touch any QB that can't get a look on the Browns.

Worst case scenario, he really is worse than Derrick Anderson and Brady Quinn. Best case scenario... he's marginally better than Derrick Anderson and Brady Quinn, but his "prize" is getting stuck as the QB of the Browns. Oof.
I've seen other people say this and I'm not sure that I buy it. He's behind a highly paid 3 game wonder and a first round pick that some thought would go 1st overall that year. It's going to take him longer to get a fair chance there. Mangini, or any head coach, has to prove to the public/team that the other guys are worse before moving to Ratliff. He may still end up sucking, but I don't think the fact that he hasn't beaten out Quinn/Anderson is a fair measure of his worth, as it may be in other QB situations on a different team.
 
How would you rank these players in a PPR dynasty?L.McCoyS.GreeneM.TurnerDeangelo WilliamsD.BoweM.CrabtreeThanks!
1. D.Williams2. M.Turner3. D.Bowe4. M.Crabtree5. S.Greene6. L.McCoyTempted to move McCoy higher, but I'm just not a believer.
In a PPR dynasty, I can't think of a scenario where I would take McCoy over Greene. (I'm a Jets :wub: , but let's not overreact to Greene's numbers last week. More importantly, he can't catch the ball). And while on an absoulute scale Turner probably is that high, but he would scare me as an owner. If this was a new draft, I would probably pass/trade down and pass on Turner and rather grab oen of the other guys. (And let's be honest that guy doesn't catch any balls either).
 
How would you rank these players in a PPR dynasty?L.McCoyS.GreeneM.TurnerDeangelo WilliamsD.BoweM.CrabtreeThanks!
WilliamsBoweCrabtreeTurnerMcCoyGreeneIt's really hard to like Turner in PPR... he has astonishingly abysmal reception totals. He's getting TDs but I wonder how long that continues. With Norwood likely gone, I could see Atlanta going after a more dynamic runner in the draft.
 
How would you rank these players in a PPR dynasty?L.McCoyS.GreeneM.TurnerDeangelo WilliamsD.BoweM.CrabtreeThanks!
DWillTurnerCrabtreeBoweGreeneMcCoyI was never a big believer in McCoy, and I think he's backup material in the NFL. Greene will get some time as the top option and goal line back in a RBBC but likely never a true workhorse. Bowe is a top talent, but not elite. Crab has potential to be elite - top 10 at his position, but 1 game isn't enough for me yet. Turner is a workhorse and is only limited by the non-receptions. His # of touches and TD potential are top notch and his talent is good enough to call him a top 10 back for the next couple/few years. DWill is the most talented player on this list IMO (Crab can equal that I think but not for a while). He will be giving up carries for at least this year and next or he obviously wouldn't even be on this list. He is only a year younger than Turner, so his age is not a big + for me.
 
Check out the new Dynasty Rankings Blog for further discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy.
How often are the dynasty rankings updated? Would you consider them fairly accurate for a keeper league where you keep your best 3 players (of your choice) each year?

I take it the value scores are only applicable within a position? For instance, Jason Witten (98) is not more valuable than MJD (97). A cross-position valuation system might make this tool even more valuable.

I was just trying to find something like this. Looks like you've done good work. Thanks!

 
Looking ahead, what do you think about the draft class next year? I was just offered Brown or Stewart for what will almost definitely be the 1.01 pick next year (the team is winless and is just AWFUL).

 
Looking ahead, what do you think about the draft class next year? I was just offered Brown or Stewart for what will almost definitely be the 1.01 pick next year (the team is winless and is just AWFUL).
If you need a RB, I would keep Stewart. I would rather have him than any 2010 RB. He's better than any of those guys. The only thing that will prevent him from becoming a perennial top 5 RB is health. The 2010 class looks a little spotty. WR Dez Bryant is the only can't-miss prospect and he might not even declare. At RB you've got two undersized speed guys with dynamic big play skills (CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best) and a handful of good-but-not-amazing 210+ pound every down backs (Jonathan Dwyer, Ryan Matthews, and Stafon Johnson if he's healthy). Some decent prospects in that bunch, but no one who figures to be a must-have dynasty player. The WR depth is pretty mediocre. The QBs are okay. Anthony McCoy is a beast at TE, but probably not worth a first round rookie pick.It will end up being a decent group when all is said and done. Bryant is the only guy I would mortgage the farm for though.
 
Would you consider them fairly accurate for a keeper league where you keep your best 3 players (of your choice) each year?
3 keeper is totally different because there is much less reason to value youth. E.G., Stewart is #12 dynasty RB right now and was that high all offseason, but he was not worth keeping in a 3 keeper league. Older RBs retain value better because it is much easier to replenish youth through the draft. This isn't a good year for that since all the older RBs seem to be falling over, but most years. I was able to draft Ray Rice in Rd 2 of each of my 3 keepers this year, as well as add guys like Pierre, Beanie, McCoy, Felix, etc. who had potential to become good young keepers. In 3 keeper, you can keep spending a few picks each year hoping you get a young RB who becomes elite. In dynasty last year, unless you finished bottom 4 or 5, you didn't get a RB worth anything, and you're stuck with the same backfield you had last year.
 
EBF said:
corpcow said:
Looking ahead, what do you think about the draft class next year? I was just offered Brown or Stewart for what will almost definitely be the 1.01 pick next year (the team is winless and is just AWFUL).
If you need a RB, I would keep Stewart. I would rather have him than any 2010 RB. He's better than any of those guys. The only thing that will prevent him from becoming a perennial top 5 RB is health. The 2010 class looks a little spotty. WR Dez Bryant is the only can't-miss prospect and he might not even declare. At RB you've got two undersized speed guys with dynamic big play skills (CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best) and a handful of good-but-not-amazing 210+ pound every down backs (Jonathan Dwyer, Ryan Matthews, and Stafon Johnson if he's healthy). Some decent prospects in that bunch, but no one who figures to be a must-have dynasty player. The WR depth is pretty mediocre. The QBs are okay. Anthony McCoy is a beast at TE, but probably not worth a first round rookie pick.It will end up being a decent group when all is said and done. Bryant is the only guy I would mortgage the farm for though.
Is there a good reference for opinions on the 2011 draft class (and maybe even beyond?). Is it buried in this thread somewhere?
 
EBF said:
corpcow said:
Looking ahead, what do you think about the draft class next year? I was just offered Brown or Stewart for what will almost definitely be the 1.01 pick next year (the team is winless and is just AWFUL).
If you need a RB, I would keep Stewart. I would rather have him than any 2010 RB. He's better than any of those guys. The only thing that will prevent him from becoming a perennial top 5 RB is health. The 2010 class looks a little spotty. WR Dez Bryant is the only can't-miss prospect and he might not even declare. At RB you've got two undersized speed guys with dynamic big play skills (CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best) and a handful of good-but-not-amazing 210+ pound every down backs (Jonathan Dwyer, Ryan Matthews, and Stafon Johnson if he's healthy). Some decent prospects in that bunch, but no one who figures to be a must-have dynasty player. The WR depth is pretty mediocre. The QBs are okay. Anthony McCoy is a beast at TE, but probably not worth a first round rookie pick.It will end up being a decent group when all is said and done. Bryant is the only guy I would mortgage the farm for though.
For what it's worth, I just took this team over last offseason and it's absolutely terrible, plus it had no 1st or 2nd round draft picks for the next 3 yrs! I am totally building for the future.First thing I did was sell Slaton for 3x 1sts (blew my mind), one of which was my pick next year and should be high and another which was 1.03 this year. I drafted Brown at 1.03 this year and then sold the pick to somoene for what became McCoy and that pick which will be 1.01 next year. Also picked up Lendale along the way and made a few FA moves.More recently, I sold Mason and Delhomme for DHB and two 2nds. This is a contract league - my team, as it is now:QB: Bulger (very expensive), Quinn, AndersonRB: McCoy, Graham, Lendale, Danny Ware, Mike Goodson, CaddyWR/TE: Cotchery, Witten, Floyd, Collie, DHB, Chaz Schilens, Mike Thomas, Cook, Steve JohnsonDL: Avril, Freeney, EllisLB: Pace, Cooper, Burnett, Akeem JordanDB: Cedric, Flowers, Chung, MooreSo, as you can see, I'm not playing for this year and probably not for next year.... so I'm truly looking at this in terms of who you think here will have the highest upside.Will Brown be a long-term stud? Does Stewart's upside justify moving 1.01 next year for him?
 
thriftyrocker said:
jacob296 said:
Would you consider them fairly accurate for a keeper league where you keep your best 3 players (of your choice) each year?
3 keeper is totally different because there is much less reason to value youth. E.G., Stewart is #12 dynasty RB right now and was that high all offseason, but he was not worth keeping in a 3 keeper league. Older RBs retain value better because it is much easier to replenish youth through the draft. This isn't a good year for that since all the older RBs seem to be falling over, but most years. I was able to draft Ray Rice in Rd 2 of each of my 3 keepers this year, as well as add guys like Pierre, Beanie, McCoy, Felix, etc. who had potential to become good young keepers. In 3 keeper, you can keep spending a few picks each year hoping you get a young RB who becomes elite. In dynasty last year, unless you finished bottom 4 or 5, you didn't get a RB worth anything, and you're stuck with the same backfield you had last year.
Do you know of a good resource for ranking players (future values) in keeper leagues?
 
EBF said:
corpcow said:
Looking ahead, what do you think about the draft class next year? I was just offered Brown or Stewart for what will almost definitely be the 1.01 pick next year (the team is winless and is just AWFUL).
If you need a RB, I would keep Stewart. I would rather have him than any 2010 RB. He's better than any of those guys. The only thing that will prevent him from becoming a perennial top 5 RB is health. The 2010 class looks a little spotty. WR Dez Bryant is the only can't-miss prospect and he might not even declare. At RB you've got two undersized speed guys with dynamic big play skills (CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best) and a handful of good-but-not-amazing 210+ pound every down backs (Jonathan Dwyer, Ryan Matthews, and Stafon Johnson if he's healthy). Some decent prospects in that bunch, but no one who figures to be a must-have dynasty player. The WR depth is pretty mediocre. The QBs are okay. Anthony McCoy is a beast at TE, but probably not worth a first round rookie pick.It will end up being a decent group when all is said and done. Bryant is the only guy I would mortgage the farm for though.
For what it's worth, I just took this team over last offseason and it's absolutely terrible, plus it had no 1st or 2nd round draft picks for the next 3 yrs! I am totally building for the future.First thing I did was sell Slaton for 3x 1sts (blew my mind), one of which was my pick next year and should be high and another which was 1.03 this year. I drafted Brown at 1.03 this year and then sold the pick to somoene for what became McCoy and that pick which will be 1.01 next year. Also picked up Lendale along the way and made a few FA moves.More recently, I sold Mason and Delhomme for DHB and two 2nds. This is a contract league - my team, as it is now:QB: Bulger (very expensive), Quinn, AndersonRB: McCoy, Graham, Lendale, Danny Ware, Mike Goodson, CaddyWR/TE: Cotchery, Witten, Floyd, Collie, DHB, Chaz Schilens, Mike Thomas, Cook, Steve JohnsonDL: Avril, Freeney, EllisLB: Pace, Cooper, Burnett, Akeem JordanDB: Cedric, Flowers, Chung, MooreSo, as you can see, I'm not playing for this year and probably not for next year.... so I'm truly looking at this in terms of who you think here will have the highest upside.Will Brown be a long-term stud? Does Stewart's upside justify moving 1.01 next year for him?
Which Brown? Ronnie or Donald?I would definitely move the 1.1 for Stewart. Given that you don't expect to compete until 2011 at the earliest, you can afford to wait on him. He is an elite talent and should become a top tier fantasy RB within the next two or three years.I would not move the 1.1 for Donald Brown. Ronnie, it's tough - I'd probably pull the trigger on that, although he's not as young as some think and will be a little long in the tooth by the time your team is in contention again. In the end, it sounds as though you have your choice of Brown (still don't know which one) or Stewart. I would absolutely make that deal for Stewart.
 
EBF said:
corpcow said:
Looking ahead, what do you think about the draft class next year? I was just offered Brown or Stewart for what will almost definitely be the 1.01 pick next year (the team is winless and is just AWFUL).
If you need a RB, I would keep Stewart. I would rather have him than any 2010 RB. He's better than any of those guys. The only thing that will prevent him from becoming a perennial top 5 RB is health. The 2010 class looks a little spotty. WR Dez Bryant is the only can't-miss prospect and he might not even declare. At RB you've got two undersized speed guys with dynamic big play skills (CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best) and a handful of good-but-not-amazing 210+ pound every down backs (Jonathan Dwyer, Ryan Matthews, and Stafon Johnson if he's healthy). Some decent prospects in that bunch, but no one who figures to be a must-have dynasty player. The WR depth is pretty mediocre. The QBs are okay. Anthony McCoy is a beast at TE, but probably not worth a first round rookie pick.It will end up being a decent group when all is said and done. Bryant is the only guy I would mortgage the farm for though.
For what it's worth, I just took this team over last offseason and it's absolutely terrible, plus it had no 1st or 2nd round draft picks for the next 3 yrs! I am totally building for the future.First thing I did was sell Slaton for 3x 1sts (blew my mind), one of which was my pick next year and should be high and another which was 1.03 this year. I drafted Brown at 1.03 this year and then sold the pick to somoene for what became McCoy and that pick which will be 1.01 next year. Also picked up Lendale along the way and made a few FA moves.More recently, I sold Mason and Delhomme for DHB and two 2nds. This is a contract league - my team, as it is now:QB: Bulger (very expensive), Quinn, AndersonRB: McCoy, Graham, Lendale, Danny Ware, Mike Goodson, CaddyWR/TE: Cotchery, Witten, Floyd, Collie, DHB, Chaz Schilens, Mike Thomas, Cook, Steve JohnsonDL: Avril, Freeney, EllisLB: Pace, Cooper, Burnett, Akeem JordanDB: Cedric, Flowers, Chung, MooreSo, as you can see, I'm not playing for this year and probably not for next year.... so I'm truly looking at this in terms of who you think here will have the highest upside.Will Brown be a long-term stud? Does Stewart's upside justify moving 1.01 next year for him?
IMO you gotta get a QB. Priority #1 for that team. Any chance of getting Ryan, Flacco, Big Ben, Rodgers etc? I'd look to deal the #1 overall for that. RBs come and go quickly. Stud QBs last a long time.
 
Will Brown be a long-term stud? Does Stewart's upside justify moving 1.01 next year for him?
Donald Brown? You never know, but I doubt it. Stewart is the better talent IMO. I think he fits well with your plan. The only thing that worries me is the chronic heel/foot/toe issues.
 
Thoughts on Roethlisberger moving forward?
Will still be an under-rated stud.
what does this mean? log jammed after Brady/Brees/Manning?
Ben has always been a little under-rated, I think... I think he is as good as anyone (and in a system now where he will put up as good numbers as anyone) beyond those top 3. 2-3 years ago, I think we saw some people put him as a top 5 overall kind of guy.... and now I think he's back in that conversation. TO be honest, I've always been a big fan (but that might have come from being married to a PIttsburgh woman!) .... :2cents:
F&L, thoughts on my comment above? I'm particulary interested bc I've been offered Roeth in a huge QB favored league for Chris Johnson. I'm "stuck" in a situation in a keep 3 league where I have CJ, MJD, and ADP in a start 2 RB league. QBs are HUGE in my league and I could never pry Manning/Brady/Brees away from their owners. The Roeth owner has Schaub also he's interested in the trade having 2 top-5 QBs currently in our league.Here are the top 10 QBs and average points per game. We have a crazy scoring system.

Manning 83

Brady 79

Schaub 77

Brees 75

Roeth 68 and the list continues

In comparison RBs do much less

ADP 40

MJD 38

Benson 35

Brown 34

Rice 33

I'm leaning towards it as MJD, ADP, and Roeth is a nice looking keep 3 package, but i'm quite attached to ADP, MJD, CJ, and then pick up the best FA QB not kept in the draft next year (i.e. Flacco, Cutler, etc). Thoughts?

 
What do you think about dynasty values going forward on LT and Vince Young. I just got offered a trade and I can still use LT, but am thinking about this for long term as starting qbs are gold in our league.

 
jacob296 said:
Check out the new Dynasty Rankings Blog for further discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy.
How often are the dynasty rankings updated? Would you consider them fairly accurate for a keeper league where you keep your best 3 players (of your choice) each year?

I take it the value scores are only applicable within a position? For instance, Jason Witten (98) is not more valuable than MJD (97). A cross-position valuation system might make this tool even more valuable.

I was just trying to find something like this. Looks like you've done good work. Thanks!
The date of the update is at the top of every post on the blog. They get updated when F&L has time.The dynasty rankings really aren't at all applicable to keep-3 leagues. Basically, in a keep-3 league, you should rank players exactly like in redraft, except give a MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE value boost to the guys at the very top (maybe top 3 QBs, top 15 RBs, top 10 WRs, depending on who you expect your leaguemates to keep). In a redraft league, ADP is worth a lot, but I'd be tempted to move him for a juicy enough package. In a keep 3 league, I'm not trading him unless I'm getting a top-5 keeper prospect in return.

editor47 said:
no, my biggest criticism of holmes SSOG is that he isn't no. 1 WR material. he's just too inconsistent. he'll go 3-44 three weeks in a row, then go 7-90-1. not my idea of a top-flight WR.

you say i like greene, who hasn't passed jones, but i don't like holmes, who hasn't passed ward. that's a terrible comparison. greene has played 7 nfl games. holmes is in his 4th season. FOURTH. he had 114 targets last year and caught 55 passes. less than half. this year, in a standard scoring system with PPR, he's had 1 gamesout of 7 with more than 16 FP. he's got high targets again this year (56) with low reception numbers (30). Wallace, on the other hand, has caught 21 of 33 targets and has almost as many yards and more TDs. While I would probably take holmes for the rest of this year, I wouldn't take him over wallace next year.

I hope you don't take my posts the wrong way SSOG. i respect everything you write and i make a point to read it. You're one of my favorite posters on here. Keep up the great work.
In case anyone's confused, I'm copying this discussion from the Mike Sims-Walker thread so as to avoid upsetting the natives.Anyway, I agree that Holmes probably won't ever be a fantasy WR1, but it's not as if I'm ranking him in the top 12 (meaning I don't expect he'll have to in order to live up to his ranking). I've got him around 15th or 16th in my rankings, so it's not like he's light years ahead of MSW (VJax, on the other hand, definitely *IS* lightyears ahead of MSW). Still, I think he'll be a steady and reliable fantasy WR2 for a long, long time... and those guys have plenty of value. Santonio Holmes gets a massive bump because he's a proven commodity, not a good-looking young WR who has had 4 good games this season, but who has played in 13 out of a possible 38 games since he entered the league. Sure, a Porsche might look flashy, but if I'm driving across the country I'd rather have a Honda or a Toyota- something that will get me where I need to go without risk of a breakdown.

Also, it's really unfair to use Holmes' numbers last season as a knock against him. Ben has been very Jekyll and Hyde over the last 4 years. When Ben is on, Santana is sensational. When Ben is off... Santana suffers. Last year, Ben was off. So far this year, Santonio's catch% is 54%. Last year, it was 48%. The year before, it was a scintillating 61%. Give Santonio a 55+% catch rate going foward (which is what I expect with "Good Ben" hopefully here to stay), and you'll see some very good numbers out of him once Ward slows down. And no, he couldn't beat out Hines Ward in his first four seasons... but is that really a criticism? "In your first four seasons, you weren't as good as a borderline HoFer in his prime... sorry". Aaron Rodgers couldn't beat out Brett Favre. Philip Rivers couldn't beat out Brees. I've said it many times, but it's not a knock on a player if they can't beat out a stud veteran. It's not like Santonio has been trying to wrest the top target title away from Justin Gage or even Jerricho Cotchery. As a dynasty owner, I often find that there is a lot of value to be had by looking at guys who are behind quality NFL players, because most owners treat that as if it's a negative and it's really not. It's not a positive, but it's also not a negative.

You can't compare Mike Wallace's numbers to Santonio's. Mike Wallace is being defended by safeties and linebackers because opposing defenses are putting their CBs on Ward and Holmes. The toughest coverage Wallace has probably faced all season might be a nickle CB. Coverages matter. Mike Wallace doesn't have the range of skills that Santonio has, and he isn't as strong at his strengths as Santonio is. Santonio is a significantly better NFL WR than Wallace is right now, and I have very strong reservations as to whether Wallace will ever be able to close that gap. And this is coming from a Wallace owner.

 
How would you rank these players in a PPR dynasty?L.McCoyS.GreeneM.TurnerDeangelo WilliamsD.BoweM.CrabtreeThanks!
DeAngeloTurnerBoweCrabtreeMcCoyShonn Greene
How do you feel Mendenhall and Beanie wells fit into this group
CrabtreeMendenhallWellsMcCoyGreeneI could probably be convinced to flip Wells and McCoy with a decent argument. To be honest, I'm pretty lukewarm towards the both of them. I wound up acquiring the #2 overall draft pick in my 10-teamer and paid a decent chunk to move out of it to #1 (#2 overall, #20 overall, #30 overall, and Owen Daniels for the #1 overall), mostly because I was just dreading the prospect of getting stuck with Wells, McCoy, or Brown. I would have just as happily traded down to 4 or 5 and picked up Harvin or Crabtree, but I wasn't getting any action that way, so I went up instead. I don't think Moreno is a great talent, but I'm a huge believer in that offensive line, and I think he's as good as, say, Matt Forte.
 
How would you rank these players in a PPR dynasty?L.McCoyS.GreeneM.TurnerDeangelo WilliamsD.BoweM.CrabtreeThanks!
DeAngeloTurnerBoweCrabtreeMcCoyShonn Greene
How do you feel Mendenhall and Beanie wells fit into this group
CrabtreeMendenhallWellsMcCoyGreeneI could probably be convinced to flip Wells and McCoy with a decent argument. To be honest, I'm pretty lukewarm towards the both of them. I wound up acquiring the #2 overall draft pick in my 10-teamer and paid a decent chunk to move out of it to #1 (#2 overall, #20 overall, #30 overall, and Owen Daniels for the #1 overall), mostly because I was just dreading the prospect of getting stuck with Wells, McCoy, or Brown. I would have just as happily traded down to 4 or 5 and picked up Harvin or Crabtree, but I wasn't getting any action that way, so I went up instead. I don't think Moreno is a great talent, but I'm a huge believer in that offensive line, and I think he's as good as, say, Matt Forte.
Where would Felix Jones fit in this?
 
I don't think Moreno is a great talent, but I'm a huge believer in that offensive line, and I think he's as good as, say, Matt Forte.
Yep, probably so. Just not as good as Beanie Wells though. I believe Beanie is clearly ahead of Moreno in ability and Moreno's situation doesn't close the gap hardly any in my estimation.Wells >>> Moreno.....not even close, really.

The Wells era is about to begin with a possible big-time eruption this weekend. Stay tuned!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciVvlxRJlN4

What a great stiff-arm and very nice burst to the corner!

 
CrabtreeMendenhallWellsMcCoyGreeneI could probably be convinced to flip Wells and McCoy with a decent argument. To be honest, I'm pretty lukewarm towards the both of them. I wound up acquiring the #2 overall draft pick in my 10-teamer and paid a decent chunk to move out of it to #1 (#2 overall, #20 overall, #30 overall, and Owen Daniels for the #1 overall), mostly because I was just dreading the prospect of getting stuck with Wells, McCoy, or Brown. I would have just as happily traded down to 4 or 5 and picked up Harvin or Crabtree, but I wasn't getting any action that way, so I went up instead. I don't think Moreno is a great talent, but I'm a huge believer in that offensive line, and I think he's as good as, say, Matt Forte.
Where would Felix Jones fit in this?
Heh, I think you guys are just trying to get my rankings out of me one name at a time.I'd probably put him somewhere in the big gap between McCoy and Greene.
 
SSOG said:
replacements said:
SSOG said:
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub said:
How would you rank these players in a PPR dynasty?L.McCoyS.GreeneM.TurnerDeangelo WilliamsD.BoweM.CrabtreeThanks!
DeAngeloTurnerBoweCrabtreeMcCoyShonn Greene
How do you feel Mendenhall and Beanie wells fit into this group
CrabtreeMendenhallWellsMcCoyGreeneI could probably be convinced to flip Wells and McCoy with a decent argument. To be honest, I'm pretty lukewarm towards the both of them. I wound up acquiring the #2 overall draft pick in my 10-teamer and paid a decent chunk to move out of it to #1 (#2 overall, #20 overall, #30 overall, and Owen Daniels for the #1 overall), mostly because I was just dreading the prospect of getting stuck with Wells, McCoy, or Brown. I would have just as happily traded down to 4 or 5 and picked up Harvin or Crabtree, but I wasn't getting any action that way, so I went up instead. I don't think Moreno is a great talent, but I'm a huge believer in that offensive line, and I think he's as good as, say, Matt Forte.
Thanks for your opinion. Thats about where I have them slotted as well. I'm just haveing a hard time getting a read on these 2 at this point. Wells seems to be the most talented of that group(mccoy,wells mendy), but I watched the bulk of his OSU career and I question his heart. I like Mendenhall so far this year ,but again I question his toughness.
 
SSOG, I'd love your response to my question too. Thanks. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11044556
I can't really say, since I'm not at all familiar with that kind of scoring system. My thoughts on Ben are pretty clear- top 5 Dynasty QB. My thoughts on Chris Johnson are that he's a top 5 Dynasty RB. Would you trade a top 5 RB for a top 5 QB in that scoring system? Is your team improved by making the trade? What kind of trade value have QBs commanded in the past? Do you think you could get a greater return for Chris Johnson?
 
Thoughts on Roethlisberger moving forward?
Will still be an under-rated stud.
what does this mean? log jammed after Brady/Brees/Manning?
Ben has always been a little under-rated, I think... I think he is as good as anyone (and in a system now where he will put up as good numbers as anyone) beyond those top 3. 2-3 years ago, I think we saw some people put him as a top 5 overall kind of guy.... and now I think he's back in that conversation. TO be honest, I've always been a big fan (but that might have come from being married to a PIttsburgh woman!) .... :confused:
F&L, thoughts on my comment above? I'm particulary interested bc I've been offered Roeth in a huge QB favored league for Chris Johnson. I'm "stuck" in a situation in a keep 3 league where I have CJ, MJD, and ADP in a start 2 RB league. QBs are HUGE in my league and I could never pry Manning/Brady/Brees away from their owners. The Roeth owner has Schaub also he's interested in the trade having 2 top-5 QBs currently in our league.Here are the top 10 QBs and average points per game. We have a crazy scoring system.

Manning 83

Brady 79

Schaub 77

Brees 75

Roeth 68 and the list continues

In comparison RBs do much less

ADP 40

MJD 38

Benson 35

Brown 34

Rice 33

I'm leaning towards it as MJD, ADP, and Roeth is a nice looking keep 3 package, but i'm quite attached to ADP, MJD, CJ, and then pick up the best FA QB not kept in the draft next year (i.e. Flacco, Cutler, etc). Thoughts?
i have two thoughts:1) you answered your own question. the value of the QB outweighs the value of the RB. get over your mancrush and make the deal.

2) is this guy going to keep 2 QBs going into 2010 or is this a trade to help you win this year? if you're trying to win this year, it doesn't matter. if he is going to drop 1 QB going into 2010, i hesitate to overpay. I did it once and I kind of regretted it, though it did work out to both of our advantages.

Good luck.

 
What I loved this week: Steven Jackson reminding the world that he's Steven Freaking Jackson. He's averaging 115 yards from scrimmage and people start acting like he's a bum... but he scores a TD and I can already see people thinking he's a stud again.

Also, my man Devin Hester. 7 receptions on 8 targets, the vast majority of which were short passes. And, in case everyone forgot, he's actually a halfway decent returner, too. Anyone who thought he wasn't the #1 WR on this team (or that he couldn't cut it as an NFL #1) needs to take a second look and see if they want to change their mind.

Edit: Other than Maurice Jones-Drew, there is no player in the entire NFL I enjoy watching more than Steven Freaking Jackson.

 
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I also really liked seeing Sanchez remember that Dustin Keller is pretty good. I actually had ranked as the #4 dynasty TE coming into the season (Gates, Witten, Clark, Keller). His numbers have been incredibly disappointing so far, but I still believe. He's just such a natural receiver, and I hope that Sanchez remembers the love going forward.

 
Vincent Jackson is so good. I was sleeping a bit on this guy at the beginning of the year, but I'm quickly becoming a massive fan. As if his size/speed combo wasn't tantalizing enough, I'm watching the SD/Oakland game and VJax just keeps making touch catch after tough catch in every way imaginable. He can go high and adjust his body in mid-air to catch poorly thrown balls, he can go to the turf and get his hands under a worm burner, he's making incredibly quick catches over the middle, he's really just doing absolutely everything. If there's a hole in his game, I simply do not see it. I'm currently sorely tempted to move him to #4 in my dynasty rankings, with a chance for him to even join the top 3 if he keeps this up.

Since I started this post, Jackson made two spectacular catches in traffic, and then finished the drive with a TD. I can literally feel myself mentally moving him up the rankings with every word I type.

Edit: For those not watching this game (and I certainly don't blame you), here's the drive that inspired the post-

1-10-SD22 (13:34) L.Tomlinson left tackle to SD 22 for no gain (M.Shaughnessy).

2-10-SD22 (12:55) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short middle to V.Jackson to SD 25 for 3 yards (N.Asomugha).

3-7-SD25 (12:15) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass deep left to V.Jackson to SD 45 for 20 yards (H.Eugene, S.Routt). (side note: this is when I began the post)

1-10-SD45 (11:35) D.Sproles left end pushed ob at OAK 44 for 11 yards (N.Asomugha).

1-10-OAK44 (11:05) L.Tomlinson up the middle to OAK 43 for 1 yard (M.Shaughnessy).

2-9-OAK43 (10:23) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short middle to V.Jackson to OAK 29 for 14 yards (C.Johnson).

1-10-OAK29 (9:38) L.Tomlinson up the middle to OAK 23 for 6 yards (T.Kelly, T.Branch).

2-4-OAK23 (8:57) L.Tomlinson right end to OAK 28 for -5 yards (M.Shaughnessy).

3-9-OAK28 (8:12) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short left to V.Jackson to OAK 14 for 14 yards (S.Routt).

1-10-OAK14 (7:34) D.Sproles up the middle to OAK 13 for 1 yard (T.Howard, K.Morrison).

2-9-OAK13 (6:57) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short left to L.Naanee to OAK 8 for 5 yards (T.Howard).

3-4-OAK8 (6:13) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short right to V.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 
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Speaking of guys who I'd love to own in dynasty, how about that MJD? Jacksonville's first three drives- zero carries for MJD (although they did give one to Mike Thomas :lmao: ), zero catches for MJD, three 3-and-outs. Jacksonville's fourth drive, they give the ball to MJD on the first play and he takes it 80 yards to the house. You kind of get the sense that it was his way of saying "give me the @$&%##$@ ball, stupid" to Jack Del-Rio. And stupid listened, calling two runs for MJD to open the next series.

Edit: 1st drive of the second half opens with a run by MJD... and he takes it 79 yards for the score. I have a feeling even Jack Del Rio might be getting the point by now. I think it'll be a long, long time before the Jaguars go 3 series without giving the ball to MJD again. MJD is currently averaging 34.4 yards per carry.

 
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Speaking of guys who I'd love to own in dynasty, how about that MJD? Jacksonville's first three drives- zero carries for MJD (although they did give one to Mike Thomas :confused: ), zero catches for MJD, three 3-and-outs. Jacksonville's fourth drive, they give the ball to MJD on the first play and he takes it 80 yards to the house. You kind of get the sense that it was his way of saying "give me the @$&%##$@ ball, stupid" to Jack Del-Rio. And stupid listened, calling two runs for MJD to open the next series.Edit: 1st drive of the second half opens with a run by MJD... and he takes it 79 yards for the score. I have a feeling even Jack Del Rio might be getting the point by now. I think it'll be a long, long time before the Jaguars go 3 series without giving the ball to MJD again. MJD is currently averaging 34.4 yards per carry.
Shhhhh....he's my #1 sleeper for this year!
 

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