What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

This isn't a question related to dynasty exactly, but it's a keep-7 league with no time limits so the roster carryover goes pretty deep so it's close to dynasty.

I lost Owen Daniels yesterday and need a TE for the rest of the year with Keller being my only other option (no waivers in this league either). I'm pretty deep at QB with Rivers and Schaub and was thinking of offering one of them for Heath Miller and Carson Palmer under the guise of giving up one potential keeper for two non-keepers, both of us trading backups for starters (He has Tony Gonzalez but his QBs are average), win-win trade, etc.

My question is: from a dynasty/keeper perspective, which of Rivers & Schaub would you hold onto and which one would you offer in this trade? Can hold onto either one for life if you want.

 
Just look at where Randy Moss (currently 32 years old) is ranked right now to get an idea of what might happen to Reggie Wayne in a couple of years-
Officially #4. At least for the next few days. A lot of his slide from the bottom of tier 1 all the way down to the top of tier 2 is due to his and Brady's health. He is a couple 59-0 games away from rising again. He still has the most upside (production, not value) of any WR over the next 2-3 years. And yes I will keep telling myself that.Really I don't think his value has dropped that much. He is probably not untradeable, but he still would demand quality youth in return. Ocho will turn 32 in January. If he finishes the year like he started, he'd also would demand a RB#1 in dynasty PPR next summer. There is a cliff coming for Wayne and all these guys, but 3 or 4 years is a long time to "develop new talent."
That's F&L's rankings. His real world value is lower. I doubt you could trade Randy Moss straight up for Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Wayne, or several other guys listed behind him. I know from my experiences as a Moss owner who recently traded him that it's almost impossible to get #4 WR value for him. In two years, I suspect the same will be true of Wayne.Like I said, I had Randy Moss #4 coming into this season, but that was under the assumption that he would be performing head and shoulders above everyone else. If he's merely performing the same as the other top 10 guys, then he's less valuable than the other top 10 guys because he's significantly older and he probably only has two more years of high-level production left in him.
Good points here. I docked Portis pretty severely this offseason because it was clear that he had lost his legs. My rough guidelines are as follows:RB: Age 28-30, depending on career and recent workload. Portis was on the 28 side, Westbrook closer to 30. I've had Westbrook for the past three seasons in one league and tried a different strategy with him. I didn't want to lose his potential difference-making talent at age 29, so I traded for Chris Johnson prior to last season to act as my RB3 and insurance policy. I still have Westbrook and probably won't deal him because I can't get what he's worth. WR: Age 34-35. I'm starting to make this one more rigid. A guy like Marvin or T.O. can have a great age-35 season, but the chances of repeating at ages 36 and 37 are just too slim.QB: Depends almost entirely on the player and his career history. TE: Right smack in the middle of RB and WR. Tony Gonzalez is the exception.
I start docking WRs at 32, because that's the point where their exit value starts to become nonexistant. A WR is still very productive at 34, but his value's shot and it's too late to move him.
I know it's not my thread, but I would take Wayne over Jackson without a second thought. He elite, top 5 every year. Jackson might get there, but to me Wayne is too good and in too good of a situation to even compare the two right now. If he relied on his speed alone, then he would worry me more, but his routes are timing and knowledge based, and the combination of him and Manning for another 5 years is too good to give up for only a potential top 5 guy.
It's not my thread, either, but I've never let that stop me. :football:Reggie Wayne has two career top 5 finishes- one 3rd place, one 4th place. He's also got an 8th place, 14th place, and 21st place finish. VJax already has a 12th place finish under his belt, and it's not like he has to become Randy Moss in order to keep up with Reggie Wayne's yearly averages (Wayne has averaged 1246/8.4 since breaking out in 2004). Yes, Reggie Wayne is the #1 fantasy WR this year... but VJax is #2, and I've already said that I expect Wayne's numbers to come back down once Gonzalez comes back.
 
More on Floyd - some questioned why he couldn't beat out Chambers, but it looks like that has happened now.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Wilson...rs-release.html

In the wake of San Diego Chargers wide receiver Chris Chambers' abrupt release today, the Chargers have issued a statement about the decision.

And it stems from the Chargers wanting to increase the playing time of Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee. "There are a number of things that went into the decision," coach Norv Turner said. "The reason we're able to do this is the play of Malcom [Floyd] and the way Legedu Naanee is performing.
 
A little bit more on Reggie Wayne. Here are his per-game numbers since he broke out in 2004: 5.56 catches for 79.6 yards and .55 TDs, 11.27 average fantasy points per game.

Those numbers sure look pretty elite, but to put them into perspective, here are the numbers posted by a couple other WRs since their breakout season.

Roddy White: 5.33 catches for 80.2 yards and .49 TDs, 10.94 ppg

Marques Colston: 5.23 catches for 74.0 yards and .63 TDs, 11.15 ppg

Greg Jennings: 4.66 catches for 75.9 yards and .66 TDs, 11.53 ppg

Chad Ochocinco: 5.37 catches for 78.9 yards and .49 TDs, 10.84 ppg

Steve Smiff: 5.72 catches for 80.7 yards and .49 TDs, 11.03 ppg

Brandon Marshall: 6.29 catches for 77.5 yards and .45 TDs, 10.43 ppg

Anquan Boldin: 6.17 catches for 79.3 yards and .47 TDs, 10.75 ppg

With the exception of Ochocinco, every single one of these players is younger than Reggie Wayne (and Ochocinco's only ~9 months older). Every single one of these players has been producing exactly the same as Wayne, too, despite worse circumstances. And, yet, every one of them is ranked behind Wayne. Let's not kid ourselves and pretend that the reason Reggie Wayne is ranked in the top 5 in dynasty is because he's just producing at this elite level... because, this season notwithstanding, he's not. He's producing at a pretty consistent WR8-10 type level. The reason he's that high is because of his consistency, nothing more.

In fact, looking at the numbers a bit more, I'm moving Roddy White ahead of Wayne, too. Same production, same upside, same consistency, more talent, 3 years younger.

 
A little bit more on Reggie Wayne. Here are his per-game numbers since he broke out in 2004: 5.56 catches for 79.6 yards and .55 TDs, 11.27 average fantasy points per game.Those numbers sure look pretty elite, but to put them into perspective, here are the numbers posted by a couple other WRs since their breakout season.Roddy White: 5.33 catches for 80.2 yards and .49 TDs, 10.94 ppgMarques Colston: 5.23 catches for 74.0 yards and .63 TDs, 11.15 ppgGreg Jennings: 4.66 catches for 75.9 yards and .66 TDs, 11.53 ppgChad Ochocinco: 5.37 catches for 78.9 yards and .49 TDs, 10.84 ppgSteve Smiff: 5.72 catches for 80.7 yards and .49 TDs, 11.03 ppgBrandon Marshall: 6.29 catches for 77.5 yards and .45 TDs, 10.43 ppgAnquan Boldin: 6.17 catches for 79.3 yards and .47 TDs, 10.75 ppgWith the exception of Ochocinco, every single one of these players is younger than Reggie Wayne (and Ochocinco's only ~9 months older). Every single one of these players has been producing exactly the same as Wayne, too, despite worse circumstances. And, yet, every one of them is ranked behind Wayne. Let's not kid ourselves and pretend that the reason Reggie Wayne is ranked in the top 5 in dynasty is because he's just producing at this elite level... because, this season notwithstanding, he's not. He's producing at a pretty consistent WR8-10 type level. The reason he's that high is because of his consistency, nothing more.In fact, looking at the numbers a bit more, I'm moving Roddy White ahead of Wayne, too. Same production, same upside, same consistency, more talent, 3 years younger.
:hophead:
 
I think the updated rankings are:

1. Larry Fitzgerald

2. Calvin Johnson

3. Andre Johnson

4. Vincent Jackson

5. Reggie Wayne

6. Roddy White

7. Randy Moss

8. Marques Colston

9. Greg Jennings

10. Steve Smith

11. DeSean Jackson

12. Chad Ochocinco

I could be convinced to put DeSean Jackson at No. 9 too. Could probably also be convinced to put Colston ahead of Moss, though I'm hesitant to disrespect a guy who could leave the whole field in the dust in the second half.

Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.

 
A little bit more on Reggie Wayne. Here are his per-game numbers since he broke out in 2004: 5.56 catches for 79.6 yards and .55 TDs, 11.27 average fantasy points per game.Those numbers sure look pretty elite, but to put them into perspective, here are the numbers posted by a couple other WRs since their breakout season.Roddy White: 5.33 catches for 80.2 yards and .49 TDs, 10.94 ppgMarques Colston: 5.23 catches for 74.0 yards and .63 TDs, 11.15 ppgGreg Jennings: 4.66 catches for 75.9 yards and .66 TDs, 11.53 ppgChad Ochocinco: 5.37 catches for 78.9 yards and .49 TDs, 10.84 ppgSteve Smiff: 5.72 catches for 80.7 yards and .49 TDs, 11.03 ppgBrandon Marshall: 6.29 catches for 77.5 yards and .45 TDs, 10.43 ppgAnquan Boldin: 6.17 catches for 79.3 yards and .47 TDs, 10.75 ppgWith the exception of Ochocinco, every single one of these players is younger than Reggie Wayne (and Ochocinco's only ~9 months older). Every single one of these players has been producing exactly the same as Wayne, too, despite worse circumstances. And, yet, every one of them is ranked behind Wayne. Let's not kid ourselves and pretend that the reason Reggie Wayne is ranked in the top 5 in dynasty is because he's just producing at this elite level... because, this season notwithstanding, he's not. He's producing at a pretty consistent WR8-10 type level. The reason he's that high is because of his consistency, nothing more.In fact, looking at the numbers a bit more, I'm moving Roddy White ahead of Wayne, too. Same production, same upside, same consistency, more talent, 3 years younger.
I see the numbers and while they do make a point about Wayne's previous production, I'm not sure its as relevant as you'd think.Reggie Wayne is the UNDISPUTED #1 WR in the Colts offense. That has only been the case once before and that was in 2007. People want to say he was the #1 last year, but really he wasn't fully. Harrison still saw over 100 targets, including the money targets(deep balls and redzone) to the point where you wondered if the Colts had short term amnesia. At the very least they were being stubborn often times to the detriment of their own team.The #1 in the Colts offense is as good a role as any in the NFL. Personally, I think Wayne pre-2007 is practically irrelevant. I think Wayne 2008 is his absolute floor and really its as irrelevant as one year ago can be. Wayne is now getting the money targets and that is something he only got in 2007. I don't think the pace he's on is a fluke at all and frankly, I don't think Wayne has peaked yet as a player. He's on pace for something like 1,500 yards and 15 TD's. I see no good reason why he'll fall off that pace. I certainly don't think the return of Anthony Gonzalez is going to matter much for Wayne. It will hurt Collie and especially Garcon, but Wayne(and Clark) will likely be relatively unaffected. I too like Vincent Jackson and Roddy White, but I wouldn't trade Wayne for either of them. Especially not White, since he really isn't all that much more of a physical talent. Typically I rank talent over situation, but Indy has always been tough to do that with because its such a unique situation and I don't see that situation changing anytime soon. I think its fully possible Jackson's situation gets worse before Wayne's does.Interestingly enough, in one dynasty I'm in a trade involving both Wayne and V-JAX went down. It was V-JAX and Moreno for Wayne and Pierre Thomas. I think the gap at RB there makes it a win for the guy getting V-JAX, but the WR swap is a downgrade for this year(I think we can agree on that at least) and possibly a downgrade in general.At the end of day, this is all nitpicking. These 3 guys(Wayne, V-JAX, White) are all tier 2 guys and seem(to me at least) to be a clear cut above over second tier guys like Colston, Jennings and even Moss.
 
I stopped reading when you said Collie.

Oh, thats the last thing you wrote so I didn't miss anything....but really??? Collie????

 
How much are you guys considering situation/opportunity when it comes to Britts upside/value/ranking? MoMass? Royal? Lee Evans is hanging around longer than Ashley Lelie.

 
I think the updated rankings are: 1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Andre Johnson4. Vincent Jackson5. Reggie Wayne6. Roddy White7. Randy Moss8. Marques Colston9. Greg Jennings10. Steve Smith11. DeSean Jackson12. Chad OchocincoI could be convinced to put DeSean Jackson at No. 9 too. Could probably also be convinced to put Colston ahead of Moss, though I'm hesitant to disrespect a guy who could leave the whole field in the dust in the second half.Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
I'm not sure there is a more interesting player than DeSean Jackson. He has a great case for the number 9 spot. He looks to be a FAR greater talent than Jennings. His big play ability is seems unrivaled. Steve Smith is a tougher case to me. I like Smitty, but Delhomme is killing his value, he's been better the last 2 weeks, but it hasn't been enough to really make me feel better about the situation.Also, while I think Smith is a bigger talent than Jackson, frankly, I'm not sure anymore. Jackson just keeps making HUGE plays. I can't help but think his targets will increase as he gets more experience and he's 8 years younger than Smith, a case to be ahead of Smith can certainly be made, and that's before factoring in the QB's.I think Moss should be a head of Colston. Like you said, its not unreasonable that Moss could blow up over the second half. Also, Colston does seem to disappear some weeks, though I guess Moss has too this season. Colston's durability hurts his cause as well, he did undergo microfracture surgery this past offseason and missed almost half of last season with another injury. Really, I have an easier time seeing Colston being in tier 3 than ahead of Moss, but I've always seemingly been lower than most on Colston, and Jennings for that matter.
 
I think the updated rankings are: 1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Andre Johnson4. Vincent Jackson5. Reggie Wayne6. Roddy White7. Randy Moss8. Marques Colston9. Greg Jennings10. Steve Smith11. DeSean Jackson12. Chad OchocincoI could be convinced to put DeSean Jackson at No. 9 too. Could probably also be convinced to put Colston ahead of Moss, though I'm hesitant to disrespect a guy who could leave the whole field in the dust in the second half.Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
:thumbup: I'd have them thusly:1. Fitz2. Andre3. Calvin4. VJax5. Roddy6. Wayne7. Colston8. Smiff9. Desean10. Randy11. Jennings12. OchocincoRandy @ 10 will probably raise some eyebrows, but I'm still not entirely convinced that Tom Brady is 2007 Tom. He's looked far too scattershot in 6 of the first 7 games for me to overlook simply because he threw 5 TDs in a quarter against the worst pass defense in the league when it was missing its top two corners. I think that Randy will perform comparably to the rest of the top 10 (except for Smiff), and if he's not going to leave them in the dust like I originally predicted then I really can't justify having him any higher, given how close he is getting to the historical WR expiration date.
I see the numbers and while they do make a point about Wayne's previous production, I'm not sure its as relevant as you'd think.Reggie Wayne is the UNDISPUTED #1 WR in the Colts offense. That has only been the case once before and that was in 2007. People want to say he was the #1 last year, but really he wasn't fully. Harrison still saw over 100 targets, including the money targets(deep balls and redzone) to the point where you wondered if the Colts had short term amnesia. At the very least they were being stubborn often times to the detriment of their own team.The #1 in the Colts offense is as good a role as any in the NFL. Personally, I think Wayne pre-2007 is practically irrelevant. I think Wayne 2008 is his absolute floor and really its as irrelevant as one year ago can be. Wayne is now getting the money targets and that is something he only got in 2007. I don't think the pace he's on is a fluke at all and frankly, I don't think Wayne has peaked yet as a player. He's on pace for something like 1,500 yards and 15 TD's. I see no good reason why he'll fall off that pace. I certainly don't think the return of Anthony Gonzalez is going to matter much for Wayne. It will hurt Collie and especially Garcon, but Wayne(and Clark) will likely be relatively unaffected. I too like Vincent Jackson and Roddy White, but I wouldn't trade Wayne for either of them. Especially not White, since he really isn't all that much more of a physical talent. Typically I rank talent over situation, but Indy has always been tough to do that with because its such a unique situation and I don't see that situation changing anytime soon. I think its fully possible Jackson's situation gets worse before Wayne's does.Interestingly enough, in one dynasty I'm in a trade involving both Wayne and V-JAX went down. It was V-JAX and Moreno for Wayne and Pierre Thomas. I think the gap at RB there makes it a win for the guy getting V-JAX, but the WR swap is a downgrade for this year(I think we can agree on that at least) and possibly a downgrade in general.At the end of day, this is all nitpicking. These 3 guys(Wayne, V-JAX, White) are all tier 2 guys and seem(to me at least) to be a clear cut above over second tier guys like Colston, Jennings and even Moss.
Wayne is only the UNDISPUTED #1 because Anthony Gonzalez has been out. Had Gonzo been around, Wayne wouldn't be on this crazy pace he's currently on. In the long run, Gonzo's missed time will wind up hurting Wayne, because now Manning's a lot more comfortable with Garcon and Collie. The Indy offense is not the kind of offense that leans heavily on one guy- just look what happened after Harrison's 140 catch season, the entire offense returned to a multi-target equilibrium. Not only is Wayne to old and set in his ways to suddenly discover a brand new gear, but Manning's too old and set in his ways to suddenly turn into the kind of guy who locks on to his binky rather than spreading the love.Also, like I said, I don't agree that VJax is necessarily a step down from Wayne this season. Wayne is WR1 so far, and VJax is WR2. I think Wayne is more likely to slow down than VJax is. I'd consider either to be a wash looking strictly at this season.
How much are you guys considering situation/opportunity when it comes to Britts upside/value/ranking? MoMass? Royal? Lee Evans is hanging around longer than Ashley Lelie.
I don't think situation factors into the discussion at all for any of the guys you listed. Unless the situation is extreme in one direction or another, it rarely factors into considerations.Ashley Lelie is a terrible comparison for Lee Evans. Ashley Lelie's highest fantasy finish was 23rd. Lee Evans' was 7th. Ashley Lelie finished as a starter-caliber fantasy WR (WR36 or better) once in seven seasons. Evans has done it 5 times in 5 seasons, and is on pace to make it 6-for-6. When Ashley Lelie's contract expired, he wound up playing for four different teams in four seasons. Lee Evans' contract never expired, because Buffalo made it a priority to lock him up to a big money deal. Ashley Lelie was an untalented receiver with only one trick (albeit a trick that he was very, very good at). Evans is a complete receiver and a legit go-to guy. Ashley Lelie never faced top coverages. Evans has faced top coverages for almost his entire career.At the end of the day, Lee Evans is 28, very talented, has a high ceiling, and has never finished lower than 32nd. F&L has him at 26th. That's a perfectly justifiable ranking, perhaps even a touch on the low side. If Buffalo weren't a fantasy purgatory right now, nobody would question the ranking. As we've seen, things have a habit of changing in a hurry.
 
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.

 
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.
I'm not SSOG but why do you think that? As an Eagle fan, you've seen Westbrook last much longer than that, what makes you think CJ's career will be so short? :thumbup:
 
Non-PPR dynasty, would you drop Leinart (or Berrian?) for Malcolm Floyd? Not sure how to gauge Floyd's future value. I would think Floyd is the 3rd option in the passing game for SD, but then again, it seems Berrian is #3 in MIN too. I can keep players as long as I want.

Offense

QB: Tony Romo (QB)

WR: Andre Johnson (WR), Mike Sims-Walker (WR)

RB: Adrian Peterson (RB), Steven Jackson (RB)

TE: Fred Davis (TE)

W/R: Ray Rice (RB)

BN: Steve Smith (WR), DeAngelo Williams (RB), Ryan Grant (RB), Chris Cooley (TE), Donovan McNabb (QB), Pierre Thomas (RB), Bernard Berrian (WR), Matthew Stafford (QB), Matt Leinart (QB)

Kickers

K: Mason Crosby (K)

Defense/Special Teams

DEF: Dallas (DEF)

 
Non-PPR dynasty, would you drop Leinart (or Berrian?) for Malcolm Floyd? Not sure how to gauge Floyd's future value. I would think Floyd is the 3rd option in the passing game for SD, but then again, it seems Berrian is #3 in MIN too. I can keep players as long as I want.OffenseQB: Tony Romo (QB)WR: Andre Johnson (WR), Mike Sims-Walker (WR)RB: Adrian Peterson (RB), Steven Jackson (RB)TE: Fred Davis (TE)W/R: Ray Rice (RB)BN: Steve Smith (WR), DeAngelo Williams (RB), Ryan Grant (RB), Chris Cooley (TE), Donovan McNabb (QB), Pierre Thomas (RB), Bernard Berrian (WR), Matthew Stafford (QB), Matt Leinart (QB)KickersK: Mason Crosby (K)Defense/Special TeamsDEF: Dallas (DEF)
I'd drop Leinart for Floyd. You'd still have 3 QB's and that would give you some added WR depth.
 
Non-PPR dynasty, would you drop Leinart (or Berrian?) for Malcolm Floyd? Not sure how to gauge Floyd's future value. I would think Floyd is the 3rd option in the passing game for SD, but then again, it seems Berrian is #3 in MIN too. I can keep players as long as I want.OffenseQB: Tony Romo (QB)WR: Andre Johnson (WR), Mike Sims-Walker (WR)RB: Adrian Peterson (RB), Steven Jackson (RB)TE: Fred Davis (TE)W/R: Ray Rice (RB)BN: Steve Smith (WR), DeAngelo Williams (RB), Ryan Grant (RB), Chris Cooley (TE), Donovan McNabb (QB), Pierre Thomas (RB), Bernard Berrian (WR), Matthew Stafford (QB), Matt Leinart (QB)KickersK: Mason Crosby (K)Defense/Special TeamsDEF: Dallas (DEF)
I'd drop Leinart for Floyd. You'd still have 3 QB's and that would give you some added WR depth.
I wouldn't be so quick to dump Leinart right now. Is it possible he'll get his shot over the next few weeks???
 
A little bit more on Reggie Wayne. Here are his per-game numbers since he broke out in 2004: 5.56 catches for 79.6 yards and .55 TDs, 11.27 average fantasy points per game.

Those numbers sure look pretty elite, but to put them into perspective, here are the numbers posted by a couple other WRs since their breakout season.

Roddy White: 5.33 catches for 80.2 yards and .49 TDs, 10.94 ppg

Marques Colston: 5.23 catches for 74.0 yards and .63 TDs, 11.15 ppg

Greg Jennings: 4.66 catches for 75.9 yards and .66 TDs, 11.53 ppg

Chad Ochocinco: 5.37 catches for 78.9 yards and .49 TDs, 10.84 ppg

Steve Smiff: 5.72 catches for 80.7 yards and .49 TDs, 11.03 ppg

Brandon Marshall: 6.29 catches for 77.5 yards and .45 TDs, 10.43 ppg

Anquan Boldin: 6.17 catches for 79.3 yards and .47 TDs, 10.75 ppg

With the exception of Ochocinco, every single one of these players is younger than Reggie Wayne (and Ochocinco's only ~9 months older). Every single one of these players has been producing exactly the same as Wayne, too, despite worse circumstances. And, yet, every one of them is ranked behind Wayne. Let's not kid ourselves and pretend that the reason Reggie Wayne is ranked in the top 5 in dynasty is because he's just producing at this elite level... because, this season notwithstanding, he's not. He's producing at a pretty consistent WR8-10 type level. The reason he's that high is because of his consistency, nothing more.
You use this word "consistency" as if it's a bad thing, but I think you're using the numbers incorrectly. Those ARE numbers we would expect from an elite WR - in my mind, what makes them elite is how consistently they score that PPG in the past and the probability that they reach/exceed those numbers in the future.You say that he has been a consistent WR8-10 level, but if you actually look at their seasons, Wayne has more top 5 finishes and more top 10 ifnishes than anyone on that list other than Chad.

Bear in mind, I'm not defending Wayne as necessarily being above some of those other guys - in fact, I think there's a whole tier of "elite" dynasty WRs 10-12 good young guys who I consider in the top echelon as far as talent and would trust as my WR1. That said, I don't this this raw PPG tells the whole story. (This is just a cursory look - don't have time to go into more detail but I may if I have time this evening).

Let's assume that generally their production/finish is close to where they are today. Counting this year, has been top 10 in four of the past 6 years, including three top 5 finishes. Even in a down year last year when Peyton and the offense got off to a slow start, he finished as WR14.

Chad may be the most consistent at a high level on this list - outside of last year when his numbers fell off a cliff without Carson. He finished top 10 in 7 of the past 8 years (if as assume the current page) including three top 5 finishes.

Steve Smith finished WR1 with that monster year in 2005, but only has 2 top 10 finishes other than that. He also missed an entire season for injury, plus a number of games here and there, and we all know how inconsistent he can be game to game (10/170/3 to 2/10/0 the next week).

I love Roddy's upside especially as Ryan matures, but he hasn't cracked the top 5 WRs yet and isn't on pace to do so right now.

Marshall is on pace for a WR20 finish, and in his two big previous seasons was around WR10. He hasn't had a top 5 season yet.

Jennings finished top 5 last year, was out of the top 10 in his breakout year before, and is currently on pace for WR28 numbers. (Behind Driver who is on pace for WR12).

Boldin finished as top 5 his rookie season, but hasn't been top 5 since. He has two top 10 finishes, but also finished outside of the top 15 four times including this year when he's on pace for WR38 finish. Of his seven seasons, he has only played 16 games twice.

I think that sometimes Wayne doesn't get the elite respect because he's only "consistent" and perhaps not as flashy or exciting as some of these guys... but at the end of the year, he's consistently in the mix in the top 5-6 WRs.

--

And not that I ever really considered him elite, but one guy who has never gotten enough respect is Driver. In the 8 seasons from 2002 on, he has a top 5 finish, 2 top finishes, and 2 top 15 finishes (on pace for WR12 this year as I said). His worst year was 2003, and in 2007 his numbers were off but mostly because is TDs were down a lot. And yet every offseason he goes for nothing... I picked him up as a cheap RFA in my dynasty - after trading Housh as the main cog in a package for 1.04 - and he wasn't matched. I think I might have cost me a 5th rounder... Insane.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
Thanks for the updated QB/RB rankings, very insightful as usual!How much movement do you see with Collie, Maclin and Britt? I'm targeting Roddy White and may have to move one or two of these guys in the trade.Wanted to have a current barometer on their dynasty value so I don't sell myself short.Thanks again!
 
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.
Actually it's usuallly the bigger power backs that have the shorter shelf life.
 
I'm interested in Britt's perceived value as well. He's looked good the few times I've been able to watch him play, but his QB situation is scary to say the least. With next year's draft appearing to be a bit weak at the skill positions, Britt might be a decent buy low candidate come draft day when picks are at their highest value. Britt hasn't been traded in any of my leagues, so I'm guessing that there's not too many offers coming the Britt owners way, or at least not too many good offers.

 
Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
I havent caught any Colts games this year, but Im a little confused by your inclusion of Collie. Its Garcon who has been hyped and even compared to Harrison in the quotes Ive seen from Colts brass. Collie is obviously outperforming him this season, but Collie seems to be best suited to the slot. What is it you see in Collie that outweighs Clark's presence and Gonzalez's return?
 
I think the updated rankings are: 1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Andre Johnson4. Vincent Jackson5. Reggie Wayne6. Roddy White7. Randy Moss8. Marques Colston9. Greg Jennings10. Steve Smith11. DeSean Jackson12. Chad OchocincoI could be convinced to put DeSean Jackson at No. 9 too. Could probably also be convinced to put Colston ahead of Moss, though I'm hesitant to disrespect a guy who could leave the whole field in the dust in the second half.Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
What do you think happens to Collie after AG comes back?
 
Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
I havent caught any Colts games this year, but Im a little confused by your inclusion of Collie. Its Garcon who has been hyped and even compared to Harrison in the quotes Ive seen from Colts brass. Collie is obviously outperforming him this season, but Collie seems to be best suited to the slot. What is it you see in Collie that outweighs Clark's presence and Gonzalez's return?
There's a discussion a few pages back. He thinks Garcon is just a deep threat like Devery Henderson. I kind of agree and didn't have any qualms dropping him in a 220 player owned league in a roster crunch. I think it shakes down one of two ways1) Over next summer, Garcon takes next step and becomes a legit NFL WR. Gonzo moves to the slot. Collie falls into a Jordy Nelson role.2) Garcon stays what he is. Gonzo stays outside. Collie stays in the slot. Garcon gets a big play every 2 or 3 games but doesn't play a high % of snaps.I think the chances of 1 happen are low but not infinitesimal - maybe 10%. If you're an upside only guy, sit him beside DHB on your bench and hope for the best. If that happens Garcon is a top 25 WR. In 2 both Collie and Gonzo kind of cancel each other out and both are top 40 WRs with a decent chance for a big game if they're the ones open. Garcon is a fringe player still worth owning.
 
Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
I havent caught any Colts games this year, but Im a little confused by your inclusion of Collie. Its Garcon who has been hyped and even compared to Harrison in the quotes Ive seen from Colts brass. Collie is obviously outperforming him this season, but Collie seems to be best suited to the slot. What is it you see in Collie that outweighs Clark's presence and Gonzalez's return?
There's a discussion a few pages back. He thinks Garcon is just a deep threat like Devery Henderson. I kind of agree and didn't have any qualms dropping him in a 220 player owned league in a roster crunch. I think it shakes down one of two ways1) Over next summer, Garcon takes next step and becomes a legit NFL WR. Gonzo moves to the slot. Collie falls into a Jordy Nelson role.2) Garcon stays what he is. Gonzo stays outside. Collie stays in the slot. Garcon gets a big play every 2 or 3 games but doesn't play a high % of snaps.I think the chances of 1 happen are low but not infinitesimal - maybe 10%. If you're an upside only guy, sit him beside DHB on your bench and hope for the best. If that happens Garcon is a top 25 WR. In 2 both Collie and Gonzo kind of cancel each other out and both are top 40 WRs with a decent chance for a big game if they're the ones open. Garcon is a fringe player still worth owning.
Understood re: Garcon, but what made F&L include Collie in the "freight train" comment? Collie doesnt crack WR 40 in either of your scenarios...
 
I was wondering if F&L (or anyone else) was targeting anyone in particular for next year. I don't mean a VJAX 2009 type (high price, hoping he becomes untouchable), but maybe more a VJAX 2008 type (moderate price, hoping he becomes high price).

McFadden is probably a good example, given earlier. I think Felix Jones is probably also "cheap" given how frustrating he is to guys who drafted him last year. Maybe Bradshaw given the injury concerns.

The WRs who made quick ascents up the rankings this year are MSW, SS North, Rice, and Hester. Which of these guys are for real and should be bought before the price is too high? Would be a good week to buy MSW.

Rice is an interesting one. Are guys who are falling off the radar like Rice did 1 or 2 years ago particularly worth targeting? I'm thinking Josh Morgan, Donnie Avery, Chris Henry, Antonio Bryant, Chazeray Schilens.

Maybe Keller at TE.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The WRs who made quick ascents up the rankings this year are MSW, SS North, Rice, and Hester. Which of these guys are for real and should be bought before the price is too high? Would be a good week to buy MSW.Rice is an interesting one. Are guys who are falling off the radar like Rice did 1 or 2 years ago particularly worth targeting? I'm thinking Josh Morgan, Donnie Avery, Chris Henry, Antonio Bryant, Chazeray Schilens.Maybe Keller at TE.
I am and always have been VERY high on Rice coming in. Remember, he came into the league when he was just 20. He has a big frame (6'4") and played the jump ball well, and he still hasn't really fully "filled out". He looked really good at times even with poor QB play and injury struggles and has always been a good end-zone target. I think he's showed a much more well-rounded game as he moved into a feature role. Even now in his 3rd year, he just turned 23. I think he has the potential to join the elite.Avery is another buy for me, though the injuries do concern me somewhat. The advantage for him is that the price is way low... I still consider him a long-term hold on my side, but obviously we're not thinking about him as a top 20 dynasty WR at this point.
 
I'd add Caldwell to that list, but he's not exactly a buy low at this point. As long as Palmer stays upright, Caldwell should develop into Housh Jr. with better skills IMO.

Edit: I'd much rather pay more for Caldwell than less for Henry. From what I've seen, most of Henry's routes are just straight forward deep routes. He really doesn't do much else. And, Marvin Lewis is not exactly a Henry supporter. The only reason Henry is on the team is because of Mike Brown.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.
I see versions of this same quote from time-to-time, and it seems to be based on absolutely nothing. Johnson takes fewer big hits and definitely less pounding than most other feature backs. I expect him to have a long shelf life.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
I havent caught any Colts games this year, but Im a little confused by your inclusion of Collie. Its Garcon who has been hyped and even compared to Harrison in the quotes Ive seen from Colts brass. Collie is obviously outperforming him this season, but Collie seems to be best suited to the slot. What is it you see in Collie that outweighs Clark's presence and Gonzalez's return?
Garcon has been over-hyped while Collie has outplayed him, and Collie hasn't just been doing it out of the slot. He's a better blocker and route-runner than Garcon, he's obviously earned Peyton Manning's trust, his catch percentage is a sky-high 71%, and his DVOA of 17.8% nearly matches Reggie Wayne's 19.9%. To sum up: Garcon has the name, but Collie has the game.

Obviously, the big question is what happens when Gonzalez returns. I'm not convinced Gonzalez will be the same player when he returns, so I'm taking a wait and see approach toward the wide receivers behind Wayne. That said, it would not surprise me if Collie remained the Colts' second most productive receiver for the rest of the season. I'm very intrigued by Collie, and I really question all of the people writing him off as some generic white-boy slot receiver.

 
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.
I see versions of this same quote from time-to-time, and it seems to be based on absolutely nothing. Johnson takes fewer big hits and definitely less pounding than most other feature backs. I expect him to have a long shelf life.
Agreed. He'll likely fall off in his late 20's since he is so dependent on his speed - more so than probably any other RB in football. But I don't see his body breaking down any time soon because as you said, he rarely takes big hits. I think he'll be a good RB for quite a long time.
 
So I just acquired Steve Smith (CAR) in a keeper league based primarily on my need at WR and his place in F&L and SSOG's rankings. Can someone sell me on him as a top ten WR going forward? I know he's got all-world ability, but can his QB situation improve sufficiently before his productivity window closes?

 
F&L, any plans to eventually integrate your positional rankings into one composite list? I'd be interested to see how you compare some of the WRs to RBs. I'm contemplating swapping Calvin Johnson for Ray Rice in a dynasty right now.

 
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.
I see versions of this same quote from time-to-time, and it seems to be based on absolutely nothing. Johnson takes fewer big hits and definitely less pounding than most other feature backs. I expect him to have a long shelf life.
Agreed. He'll likely fall off in his late 20's since he is so dependent on his speed - more so than probably any other RB in football. But I don't see his body breaking down any time soon because as you said, he rarely takes big hits. I think he'll be a good RB for quite a long time.
How long did Deion Sanders speed last?
 
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.
I see versions of this same quote from time-to-time, and it seems to be based on absolutely nothing. Johnson takes fewer big hits and definitely less pounding than most other feature backs. I expect him to have a long shelf life.
Agreed. He'll likely fall off in his late 20's since he is so dependent on his speed - more so than probably any other RB in football. But I don't see his body breaking down any time soon because as you said, he rarely takes big hits. I think he'll be a good RB for quite a long time.
How long did Deion Sanders speed last?
You tell me. If you have a point to make, make it.
 
what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.
I see versions of this same quote from time-to-time, and it seems to be based on absolutely nothing. Johnson takes fewer big hits and definitely less pounding than most other feature backs. I expect him to have a long shelf life.
Agreed. He'll likely fall off in his late 20's since he is so dependent on his speed - more so than probably any other RB in football. But I don't see his body breaking down any time soon because as you said, he rarely takes big hits. I think he'll be a good RB for quite a long time.
How long did Deion Sanders speed last?
You tell me. If you have a point to make, make it.
He made it. Deion and Darrell Green remained two of the fastest players in the league until late in their careers.
 
Rookie WRs coming like a freight train too: Harvin, Crabman, Hicks, Maclin, even Collie.
I havent caught any Colts games this year, but Im a little confused by your inclusion of Collie. Its Garcon who has been hyped and even compared to Harrison in the quotes Ive seen from Colts brass. Collie is obviously outperforming him this season, but Collie seems to be best suited to the slot. What is it you see in Collie that outweighs Clark's presence and Gonzalez's return?
Garcon has been over-hyped while Collie has outplayed him, and Collie hasn't just been doing it out of the slot. He's a better blocker and route-runner than Garcon, he's obviously earned Peyton Manning's trust, his catch percentage is a sky-high 71%, and his DVOA of 17.8% nearly matches Reggie Wayne's 19.9%. To sum up: Garcon has the name, but Collie has the game.

Obviously, the big question is what happens when Gonzalez returns. I'm not convinced Gonzalez will be the same player when he returns, so I'm taking a wait and see approach toward the wide receivers behind Wayne. That said, it would not surprise me if Collie remained the Colts' second most productive receiver for the rest of the season. I'm very intrigued by Collie, and I really question all of the people writing him off as some generic white-boy slot receiver.
According to Pro Football Focus, Collie lined up in the slot on 91.4% of his snaps (through Week 7).
Code:
Snaps   Slot   Wide   OtherWeek 1	 55	 53	 2Week 2	 26	 24	 2Week 3	 55	 50	 5Week 4	 44	 40	 3	  1Week 5	 58	 51	 7Week 7	 31	 28	 1	  2
Im not looking to write him off (I agree with your wait-and-see approach), but he does seem to be a slot receiver.
 
F&L, any plans to eventually integrate your positional rankings into one composite list? I'd be interested to see how you compare some of the WRs to RBs. I'm contemplating swapping Calvin Johnson for Ray Rice in a dynasty right now.
I have a Top-200 Dynasty list in Rotoworld's Season Pass, but I don't plan on putting the blog rankings into one list. I just think it's fruitless with so many different scoring systems, roster sizes, starting lineup sizes, etc.
 
I think the updated rankings are:

1. Larry Fitzgerald

2. Calvin Johnson

3. Andre Johnson

4. Vincent Jackson

5. Reggie Wayne

6. Roddy White

7. Randy Moss

8. Marques Colston

9. Greg Jennings

10. Steve Smith

11. DeSean Jackson

12. Chad Ochocinco
I can't really argue with this list. I love owning three guys on your top 12 :banned: Comments:

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the QB situation in Carolina. You have to think that Delhomme is going to be replaced. If Carolina gets a good QB via the draft or free agency, Smith could very well vault back into the top 5 again.
I think you have V Jax exactly where he should be. He's a talented WR on a great passing team, but I can't rank him any higher than #4 right now. However, that's mostly because Jackson isn't as heavily targeted as the top three on your list. If Jackson gets more targets from Rivers, I think he'll belong in the top 3 discussion.
I know Jennings' stock is down and DeSean's stock is up right now, but no way would I trade away DeSean for Jennings.
 
How long did Deion Sanders speed last?
You tell me. If you have a point to make, make it.
He made it. Deion and Darrell Green remained two of the fastest players in the league until late in their careers.
Not a fair comparison. CBs are not subjected to NEARLY the physical pounding that a running back is on each play. Specifically, Deion was famously averse to contact so yeah I'm sure it was a bit easier for him to maintain his speed later into his career. I don't know if Green had that same rep or not....
 
F&L, any plans to eventually integrate your positional rankings into one composite list? I'd be interested to see how you compare some of the WRs to RBs. I'm contemplating swapping Calvin Johnson for Ray Rice in a dynasty right now.
I have a Top-200 Dynasty list in Rotoworld's Season Pass, but I don't plan on putting the blog rankings into one list. I just think it's fruitless with so many different scoring systems, roster sizes, starting lineup sizes, etc.
Well, how would you compare Calvin in Rice in a non-ppr dynasty? Rice's boost this year would be great, and I have the WRs to not miss Calvin (Fitz/AJ), but I worry that 3 years from now Rice will end up a mid-level or worse player as we see with some many young RBs that come on for a short while and then fade, and Calvin will be just 3 years further into his 10 year run of dominance.
 
How long did Deion Sanders speed last?
You tell me. If you have a point to make, make it.
He made it. Deion and Darrell Green remained two of the fastest players in the league until late in their careers.
Not a fair comparison. CBs are not subjected to NEARLY the physical pounding that a running back is on each play. Specifically, Deion was famously averse to contact so yeah I'm sure it was a bit easier for him to maintain his speed later into his career. I don't know if Green had that same rep or not....
So who is a fair comparison? Marshall Faulk? I'm sure Chris Johnson owners would be fine with that.
 
F&L, any plans to eventually integrate your positional rankings into one composite list? I'd be interested to see how you compare some of the WRs to RBs. I'm contemplating swapping Calvin Johnson for Ray Rice in a dynasty right now.
I have a Top-200 Dynasty list in Rotoworld's Season Pass, but I don't plan on putting the blog rankings into one list. I just think it's fruitless with so many different scoring systems, roster sizes, starting lineup sizes, etc.
Well, how would you compare Calvin in Rice in a non-ppr dynasty? Rice's boost this year would be great, and I have the WRs to not miss Calvin (Fitz/AJ), but I worry that 3 years from now Rice will end up a mid-level or worse player as we see with some many young RBs that come on for a short while and then fade, and Calvin will be just 3 years further into his 10 year run of dominance.
As a general rule I don't like to trade away elite young stud wr's for rb's. Personally, I'd have a hard time trading away Calvin for Peterson, nevermind Rice. I love Rice, but wr's like Calvin are extremely rare. I'd just as soon have a weakness at rb as I feel that's an easier hole to plug.
 
F&L, any plans to eventually integrate your positional rankings into one composite list? I'd be interested to see how you compare some of the WRs to RBs. I'm contemplating swapping Calvin Johnson for Ray Rice in a dynasty right now.
I have a Top-200 Dynasty list in Rotoworld's Season Pass, but I don't plan on putting the blog rankings into one list. I just think it's fruitless with so many different scoring systems, roster sizes, starting lineup sizes, etc.
Well, how would you compare Calvin in Rice in a non-ppr dynasty? Rice's boost this year would be great, and I have the WRs to not miss Calvin (Fitz/AJ), but I worry that 3 years from now Rice will end up a mid-level or worse player as we see with some many young RBs that come on for a short while and then fade, and Calvin will be just 3 years further into his 10 year run of dominance.
If I had Calvin Johnson, I wouldn't trade him.
 
F&L, any plans to eventually integrate your positional rankings into one composite list? I'd be interested to see how you compare some of the WRs to RBs. I'm contemplating swapping Calvin Johnson for Ray Rice in a dynasty right now.
I have a Top-200 Dynasty list in Rotoworld's Season Pass, but I don't plan on putting the blog rankings into one list. I just think it's fruitless with so many different scoring systems, roster sizes, starting lineup sizes, etc.
Well, how would you compare Calvin in Rice in a non-ppr dynasty? Rice's boost this year would be great, and I have the WRs to not miss Calvin (Fitz/AJ), but I worry that 3 years from now Rice will end up a mid-level or worse player as we see with some many young RBs that come on for a short while and then fade, and Calvin will be just 3 years further into his 10 year run of dominance.
As a general rule I don't like to trade away elite young stud wr's for rb's. Personally, I'd have a hard time trading away Calvin for Peterson, nevermind Rice. I love Rice, but wr's like Calvin are extremely rare. I'd just as soon have a weakness at rb as I feel that's an easier hole to plug.
:goodposting: I agree completely. I try to trade young RBs & draft picks for stud WRs.
 
World class sprinters tend to start slipping at about age 28-31, but that still gives Johnson 4-5 years of his prime assuming good health. That's about the best you can hope for from a dynasty RB.

 
Would Miles Austin be top 20-25, or is too early to have that discussion?
I don't think it's too early at all. He just keeps getting it done. Here is part of Rotoworld's Evan Silva's game report from Sunday:
Miles Austin abused Seahawks LCB Marcus Trufant. Trufant, in his first game back from the PUP list, was supposed to only play on passing downs with Josh Wilson as the starter. But RCB Ken Lucas' game-ending shoulder stinger forced Trufant into every-down duty, and he was flagged for three pass interference penalties and beaten for Austin's third-quarter touchdown. Austin is sensational on crossing routes, runs well in the open field, can make tough catches in traffic, and explodes into his patterns. He is legitimately one of the most complete receivers in the NFL.Tony Romo has eight touchdowns in his last three games, and five of them have gone to Austin. Austin has truly injected life into a Cowboys offense that would otherwise lack a big-play dimension. Romo and Austin are every-week fantasy starters.
 
how would you rank Slaton versus Pierre Thomas in PPR, given Slaton's "benching"?

I watched Moats in Philly for 3 years and he could never figure out the blocking scheme. Given how much Houston passes, I expect that Slaton will be given another chance before too long. I currently have Pierre in the last year of his contract and am considering trying to put together an offer for Slaton (has 3 years left).

 
spon23 said:
how would you rank Slaton versus Pierre Thomas in PPR, given Slaton's "benching"?I watched Moats in Philly for 3 years and he could never figure out the blocking scheme. Given how much Houston passes, I expect that Slaton will be given another chance before too long. I currently have Pierre in the last year of his contract and am considering trying to put together an offer for Slaton (has 3 years left).
I would much rather have Pierre Thomas. I don't think Slaton's long-term value is very stable at all, but I've also thought that all along so I'm probably biased. If I was targeting a player to get in exchange for Pierre, it wouldn't be old "Snacks" Slaton.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top