GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Rice and Stewart for sure. After that, I think it depends on team needs. Rice's value probably takes a small hit in standard leagues. He's a beast in PPR leagues.
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Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
James JonesChaz Schilens
Brandon Tate
Mike Thomas
Louis Murphy
Funny, I always wonder how F&L and EBF find the time. Actually producing complete sets of rankings on a weekly or bi-weekly basis is a lot of work, in addition to all of his Rotoworld stuff and his day job. And I remain thoroughly convinced that EBF has college tape on every single player in the NFL (and quite a few who aren't but who are potential free agent additions should injuries strike). His scouting work is borderline encyclopedic.
If it were me, I'd be looking to move CJ3 for a stud QB. It'd hurt to get rid of him, but of your three RBs, I think he's the best one to shop (MJD is a better dynasty RB, and while I have SJax slightly ahead of Johnson in my rankings, I'd imagine Johnson would command significantly more on the open market. The ideal would be to move Johnson for a Roethlisberger/Rivers/Rodgers type, or Johnson+Stafford for a Drew Brees. Heck, if I were getting Brees in return, I'd even move Johnson, Stafford, and one of those 1sts and count it a bargain.
There was actually a ton of discussion about Caddy right before the season started. If you want to go back and read it for some really in-depth analysis, it starts here and spans several pages. If you'd rather have a summery of my thoughts on the subject... I never thought he was that good, even as a rookie (he feasted on bad defenses and stunk against good ones). After the litany of injuries, he's no longer the back that he once was, and the back that he once was was never as good as the hype in the first place. He's flotsam, roster junk, the kind of guy you might burn waiver priority on... provided it's not a top-3 waiver priority. I seriously doubt his ability to ever be a quality FF contributor. Save your 2nd rounder, you'd be better off just taking a zero this week if it came down to it.
Actually, I've moved him down to WR6. I bumped Roddy over him, too. I'd take ADP and MJD over him for sure, but I don't think CJ3 is necessarily a given. I'd probably take SJax and CJ over Wayne, but those three are close enough that I'm sure my answer would change from day to day or even from hour to hour. No other RBs over Wayne.
I'm a little higher on him then SSOG, but I do doubt he'll ever be a guy you could rely on as an every week starter. If you're a contender this year, then I could see doing it. If you're not, then I'd be tempted to hold that pick.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
SSOG-Have you ever mentioned what that refers to? SSOG?I think we are roughly on the same page here. I didn't mention PT and Mendenhall because I felt they were special. I think they are tier 3/4 talents in a great situation going forward. I think Moreno is in much the same boat, but his situation isn't as good right now as either PT or Mendenhall. Regarding your point with the dearth of special RB talent in the league, from what EBF and some of the others are saying with the 2010 class, it isn't getting any better anytime soon. Ungood.I'd like to mention I'm also on board with your acquire young stud WRs at all costs mentality. RBs come and go, injuries ruin half their careers, and all but the greatest don't last very long. However, as a Steve Smith (CAR) owner, I have to admit that this theory isn't perfect. Steve Smith helped me to a dynasty title in 2006, but was barely startable for much of 2007. He's in the same boat in 2009. It really has nothing to do with Steve Smith's talent. He's elite. He went through Matt Moore, Vinny Testaverde, Jake Delhomme and David Carr in 2007. Delhomme blows in 2009. So two of the last three years, he's barely startable, yet you almost have to start him due to his talent. The worst scenario really. As great of a talent that Fitzgerald is, how do we know he'll do anything consistent past Warner? Leinart really has done nothing on the big stage. He looked solid this past preseason, but so did Glenn Coffee, and a hundreds of others who couldn't cut it. I'm on board with the theory. I just think you need to view the QB/WR tandem as equally as important. i.e. VJax and Jennings get a boost due to young stud QBs. Wayne and Fitz take a hit due to older QBs with more limited windows.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Good backup and that's about it IMO. He has decent vision, and he's steady, but he's too slow for his package. If he was 225 lbs with power, it might be another story.
Whiplash Inc.
Footballguy
The deal I mentioned on the previous page (Holmes straight up for Maclin) has changed in an offer for a 3 player deal...I give Matt Ryan, Brandon Marshall and I get Tony Romo, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington.
This league has a 3 player rookie keeper rule (RK), which basically means that players that are drafted as rookies can be kept in future years in lieu of a 23rd, 22nd or 21st round draft pick (depending on how many RK's you decide to keep). In this deal Ryan, Holmes and Maclin are rookie keepers.
I'm sitting at 3-5 and I felt I had to drastically improve my team's firepower to still have a shot at making the playoffs. I'm also last in the league in points.
My starting lineup before the trade;
Ryan
DeSean
Marshall
Driver
Portis
D. Brown
Carlson
Collie
Scobee
Eagles
After the trade;
Romo
DeSean
Driver
Holmes
Portis
D. Brown
Carlson
Collie
Scobee
Eagles
I think I've definitely upgraded my QB for this season as I wasn't planning on keeping Ryan anyway (QBs have far less value). Marshall is definitely a solid WR1, but without keeper value I felt I could afford to lose him since I still have Driver and now that I've dealt Maclin for Holmes I still get to play Holmes as a starter along with DeSean and Driver.
I feel I upgraded my team and still have 3 solid rookie keepers for next year and beyond in DeSean, Santonio Holmes and Donald Brown. Thoughts?
This league has a 3 player rookie keeper rule (RK), which basically means that players that are drafted as rookies can be kept in future years in lieu of a 23rd, 22nd or 21st round draft pick (depending on how many RK's you decide to keep). In this deal Ryan, Holmes and Maclin are rookie keepers.
I'm sitting at 3-5 and I felt I had to drastically improve my team's firepower to still have a shot at making the playoffs. I'm also last in the league in points.
My starting lineup before the trade;
Ryan
DeSean
Marshall
Driver
Portis
D. Brown
Carlson
Collie
Scobee
Eagles
After the trade;
Romo
DeSean
Driver
Holmes
Portis
D. Brown
Carlson
Collie
Scobee
Eagles
I think I've definitely upgraded my QB for this season as I wasn't planning on keeping Ryan anyway (QBs have far less value). Marshall is definitely a solid WR1, but without keeper value I felt I could afford to lose him since I still have Driver and now that I've dealt Maclin for Holmes I still get to play Holmes as a starter along with DeSean and Driver.
I feel I upgraded my team and still have 3 solid rookie keepers for next year and beyond in DeSean, Santonio Holmes and Donald Brown. Thoughts?
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corpcow
Footballguy
By the way, I mentioned earlier in the thread that I really transformed my primary dynasty league over the past 2 years, going from one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best.
I thought it might be a worthwhile exercise to walk through these moves and how they ultimately led to that transformation. One key that really helped me in some of these moves is moving players that I considered overvalued and targeting guys who, at the time, were grossly undervalued. In retrospect, many of these deals look somewhat lopsided, but at the time it was a situation where the player's perceived value was, for me, a lot higher than I thought it should have been.
Also, on the trading front, I have a pretty good reptuation for making fair offers. I found it particularly important to really learn what each owner values, and negotiate accordingly. (E.g., some of the guys were willing to part with vets on the cheap, others didn't put too much stock in draft picks since they haven't drafted well in the past, etc).
League Overview
This is a 16 team, non-PPR league with full contract/salary cap. All players except those on rookie contracts get a 5% increase each year, and there are also performance increases of up to 15% depending on position and how they finished. You can extend contracts, but raises their base salary by 25%. Rookie salaries are tied to draft position, with 1.01 being 3m, 2.01 being just under 2m, etc. UFA is done with full auction bidding, and tied to the total value of the contract (so you can raise a $3m/1yr bid with a $1.1m/3yr bid).
My team, circa Jan 2007
QB: Croyle (1.15m/3), Trent Green (3.7m/1), Damon Huard (2.64m/5), Chad Pennington (1.59/2), Jake Plummer (3.7m/2), Bledsoe as RFA (4m)
RB: Portis (4m/4), Dunn (3.7m/2), Betts (950k/1)
WR/TE: Marty Booker (540k/2), Malcom FLoyd (445k/2), Santonio (2.2m/2), TJ Housh (2.2m/2, Travis Taylor (400k/1), Desmond Clark (750k/2), Rd Smith RFA at 2m
PK: Longwell (850k/3), Morten Andersen (500k/1)
DL: KGB (1.7m/2), James Hall (2m/4), Kerney (1.9m/2)
LB: Shaun Phillips (3m/4), Bruschi (1.8m/1), David Pollack (1.3m/2), Adalius Thomas (3.2m/2), Odell Thurman (3m/3), Al Wilson (500k/2)
DB: Dunta Robinson (2.1m/1), Charles Woodson (350k/2), Dexter Jackson (364k/1), Donovin Darius (364k/1) Deltha Oneal 2.1m/1
My team today
QB: Ryan (2.5m/4), Jamarcus (2.7m/3)
RB: Chris Johnson (2.5m/3), Thomas Jones (5.7m/1), Beanie Wells (2.92/5), Donald Brown 2.76m/5, Bernard Scott (1.2m/4)
WR: Holmes (2.9m/2), Avery (1.5m/4), Driver (2.1m/2), Sidney Rice (2.2m/3), Floyd (550k/2), Maclin (2.2m/5), COok (350k/2), Keller (455k/2)
PK: Longwell (940k/1)
DL: Allen (350k/3), Tuck (500k/3), Avril (350k/3)
LB: Harrison (1.1m/4), Lofton (1.9m/3), TImmons (1.8m/5), Crowder (1.3/5), Barton (390k/1), Dobbins (350k/2), Levy (725k/3)
DB: Troy (2.8m/1), Hope (364k/1), Yeremiah Bell (490k/2), Finnegan (350k/2)
I did have two 1sts to play with in 2007 (1.04 and 1.12), but otherwise didn't have too much in the way of picks (e.g., no mid round picks, no 1st in 2009).
How did I get there?
In 2007, notable moves:
I drafted Jamarcus at 1.04 and Sidney Rice at 1.12. Obviously Jamarcus hasn't panned out, but in a 16 team league with 6pts per pass TD, and my other QB situation, I needed a QB badly.... and more importantly I wasn't sold on Chris Henry or Brandon Jackson who were otherwise going at 1.04.
I traded Adalius THomas (this is the year he left Baltimore) and Chad Pennington for Eric Barton, Elvis Dumervil, a 2009 1st, two 2008 2nds, a 2009 3rd, and two 5ths
I traded Warrick Dunn and 3rd rounder for what should have been late 2008 1st but ended up being 1.07
I traded Trent Green and Sabby PIscatelli (who I drafted in the 5th) for Channing Crowder, Josh Bullocks , an early 2008 2nd, an early 2009 3rd, and a 2010 5th
I traded one of those 2008 2nds and a 2008 5th rounder for Timmons.
Notably, dropped most of the dead weight on the team and acquired James Harrison for $1.1m (low for a LB) and Justin Tuck for 350k (league min)2008:
I had a pretty solid draft in 2008: Kevin Smith (1.04), Chris Johnson (1.07), Curtis Lofton (2.01), Donnie Avery (2.10), Adibi (4.04)
Desperate for a QB, I traded that 1st rounder I got from the previous year's trade, my 2011 1st, a 2010 3rd and Curtis Lofton for Matt Ryan
I traded TJ Housh for a 1st rounder which ended up being 1.04 (his team was better than that originally)
When Portis was rolling, with Kevin Smith and Chris Johnson playing well, I traded him for what ended up being 1.02
I traded Shaun Phillips to someone for a mid-second
Throughout the year, picked up Keller and Avril for league min and Malcolm Kelly for 1.1m/5yrs when he wasn't signed because of cap space / injury concerns2009 is where i got really active
I REALLy wanted to get Lofton back, and managed to pry him away with Adibi (who was much cheaper) plus 2.04 for Lofton and a 3rd.
Picked up Jared Allen in RFA - got him for league min (
) by giving up my 1.13 pick, who would have otherwise cost me 2.2m anyway
Picked up Donald Driver in RFA, getting him for 2.1m/2yrs and giving up 3.13 in the process
Traded Malcolm Kelly and Cromartie (who I picked up in 2007 for league min) for 2.02
Traded Dumervil (who was a big ? then... argh!) and 3.05 for Troy and two future 3rds (in part because I didn't have the roster space to sign 3.05, and those others should both be early)
Traded 2.01, 2.11, and my 2010 2nd rounder for 1.11
Traded Kevin Smith to a bad team who was desperate at RB for - get this - their 2010 1st, 2010 2nd, 2011 1st, 2011 2nd, and 2011 3rd. This team had no 2009 picks and really wanted a RB, and no one else was willing/had the depth to part with a young guy. He offered similar deals for Smith or CJ3 - just wanted a good young RB - but I refused to give up CJ3 (who I have in about every league I could get near him in)
Thomas Jones had a very high price tag and owner had some major cap issues... plus this was right after the NFL draft when they grabbed Shonne Green, so some had soured on him. I managed to grab him for only a couple of 2011 3rd rounders, in part because I was the only person with the cap space to do so.
Drafted Beanie Wells (1.02), Donald Brown (1.04), Maclin (1.11), Bernard Scott (3.03)I think my main lessons for rebuilding a dynasty roster are as follows:
Know the owners in your league and what they value. First, you can pull of great trades if you know this. Second, you can find serious value in both the draft and UFA/RFA. E.g., most people thought I was crazy at the time to give up a 1st for a DL - even the best DL. The thing is, it wasn't just trading 1.13 for Allen straight up - it was getting him at 350k instead of $3m. But I knew the league overlooked that position compared to others.
If you use salary/contract yr cap, a well-managed team with a lot of room is a big advantage... and can create value in and of itself (e.g., worth a pick, taking the penalty, etc).
If you draft well, you can always have a backlog of players who can grow into a starter's role.
Cash in on players when their value is high and you have that depth
Don't be afraid to blow up a bad team. Sometimes cutting everyone, selling anything of value, is better than being middling forever. I sold guys who would have made me more competitive, but I was better off in the long run for selling those guys to competitive teams that paid somewhat of a premium to fill holes on a playoff-caliber team.
I thought it might be a worthwhile exercise to walk through these moves and how they ultimately led to that transformation. One key that really helped me in some of these moves is moving players that I considered overvalued and targeting guys who, at the time, were grossly undervalued. In retrospect, many of these deals look somewhat lopsided, but at the time it was a situation where the player's perceived value was, for me, a lot higher than I thought it should have been.
Also, on the trading front, I have a pretty good reptuation for making fair offers. I found it particularly important to really learn what each owner values, and negotiate accordingly. (E.g., some of the guys were willing to part with vets on the cheap, others didn't put too much stock in draft picks since they haven't drafted well in the past, etc).
League Overview
This is a 16 team, non-PPR league with full contract/salary cap. All players except those on rookie contracts get a 5% increase each year, and there are also performance increases of up to 15% depending on position and how they finished. You can extend contracts, but raises their base salary by 25%. Rookie salaries are tied to draft position, with 1.01 being 3m, 2.01 being just under 2m, etc. UFA is done with full auction bidding, and tied to the total value of the contract (so you can raise a $3m/1yr bid with a $1.1m/3yr bid).
My team, circa Jan 2007
QB: Croyle (1.15m/3), Trent Green (3.7m/1), Damon Huard (2.64m/5), Chad Pennington (1.59/2), Jake Plummer (3.7m/2), Bledsoe as RFA (4m)
RB: Portis (4m/4), Dunn (3.7m/2), Betts (950k/1)
WR/TE: Marty Booker (540k/2), Malcom FLoyd (445k/2), Santonio (2.2m/2), TJ Housh (2.2m/2, Travis Taylor (400k/1), Desmond Clark (750k/2), Rd Smith RFA at 2m
PK: Longwell (850k/3), Morten Andersen (500k/1)
DL: KGB (1.7m/2), James Hall (2m/4), Kerney (1.9m/2)
LB: Shaun Phillips (3m/4), Bruschi (1.8m/1), David Pollack (1.3m/2), Adalius Thomas (3.2m/2), Odell Thurman (3m/3), Al Wilson (500k/2)
DB: Dunta Robinson (2.1m/1), Charles Woodson (350k/2), Dexter Jackson (364k/1), Donovin Darius (364k/1) Deltha Oneal 2.1m/1
My team today
QB: Ryan (2.5m/4), Jamarcus (2.7m/3)
RB: Chris Johnson (2.5m/3), Thomas Jones (5.7m/1), Beanie Wells (2.92/5), Donald Brown 2.76m/5, Bernard Scott (1.2m/4)
WR: Holmes (2.9m/2), Avery (1.5m/4), Driver (2.1m/2), Sidney Rice (2.2m/3), Floyd (550k/2), Maclin (2.2m/5), COok (350k/2), Keller (455k/2)
PK: Longwell (940k/1)
DL: Allen (350k/3), Tuck (500k/3), Avril (350k/3)
LB: Harrison (1.1m/4), Lofton (1.9m/3), TImmons (1.8m/5), Crowder (1.3/5), Barton (390k/1), Dobbins (350k/2), Levy (725k/3)
DB: Troy (2.8m/1), Hope (364k/1), Yeremiah Bell (490k/2), Finnegan (350k/2)
I did have two 1sts to play with in 2007 (1.04 and 1.12), but otherwise didn't have too much in the way of picks (e.g., no mid round picks, no 1st in 2009).
How did I get there?
In 2007, notable moves:
I drafted Jamarcus at 1.04 and Sidney Rice at 1.12. Obviously Jamarcus hasn't panned out, but in a 16 team league with 6pts per pass TD, and my other QB situation, I needed a QB badly.... and more importantly I wasn't sold on Chris Henry or Brandon Jackson who were otherwise going at 1.04.
I traded Adalius THomas (this is the year he left Baltimore) and Chad Pennington for Eric Barton, Elvis Dumervil, a 2009 1st, two 2008 2nds, a 2009 3rd, and two 5ths
I traded Warrick Dunn and 3rd rounder for what should have been late 2008 1st but ended up being 1.07
I traded Trent Green and Sabby PIscatelli (who I drafted in the 5th) for Channing Crowder, Josh Bullocks , an early 2008 2nd, an early 2009 3rd, and a 2010 5th
I traded one of those 2008 2nds and a 2008 5th rounder for Timmons.
Notably, dropped most of the dead weight on the team and acquired James Harrison for $1.1m (low for a LB) and Justin Tuck for 350k (league min)2008:
I had a pretty solid draft in 2008: Kevin Smith (1.04), Chris Johnson (1.07), Curtis Lofton (2.01), Donnie Avery (2.10), Adibi (4.04)
Desperate for a QB, I traded that 1st rounder I got from the previous year's trade, my 2011 1st, a 2010 3rd and Curtis Lofton for Matt Ryan
I traded TJ Housh for a 1st rounder which ended up being 1.04 (his team was better than that originally)
When Portis was rolling, with Kevin Smith and Chris Johnson playing well, I traded him for what ended up being 1.02
I traded Shaun Phillips to someone for a mid-second
Throughout the year, picked up Keller and Avril for league min and Malcolm Kelly for 1.1m/5yrs when he wasn't signed because of cap space / injury concerns2009 is where i got really active
I REALLy wanted to get Lofton back, and managed to pry him away with Adibi (who was much cheaper) plus 2.04 for Lofton and a 3rd.
Picked up Jared Allen in RFA - got him for league min (
) by giving up my 1.13 pick, who would have otherwise cost me 2.2m anywayPicked up Donald Driver in RFA, getting him for 2.1m/2yrs and giving up 3.13 in the process
Traded Malcolm Kelly and Cromartie (who I picked up in 2007 for league min) for 2.02
Traded Dumervil (who was a big ? then... argh!) and 3.05 for Troy and two future 3rds (in part because I didn't have the roster space to sign 3.05, and those others should both be early)
Traded 2.01, 2.11, and my 2010 2nd rounder for 1.11
Traded Kevin Smith to a bad team who was desperate at RB for - get this - their 2010 1st, 2010 2nd, 2011 1st, 2011 2nd, and 2011 3rd. This team had no 2009 picks and really wanted a RB, and no one else was willing/had the depth to part with a young guy. He offered similar deals for Smith or CJ3 - just wanted a good young RB - but I refused to give up CJ3 (who I have in about every league I could get near him in)
Thomas Jones had a very high price tag and owner had some major cap issues... plus this was right after the NFL draft when they grabbed Shonne Green, so some had soured on him. I managed to grab him for only a couple of 2011 3rd rounders, in part because I was the only person with the cap space to do so.
Drafted Beanie Wells (1.02), Donald Brown (1.04), Maclin (1.11), Bernard Scott (3.03)I think my main lessons for rebuilding a dynasty roster are as follows:
Know the owners in your league and what they value. First, you can pull of great trades if you know this. Second, you can find serious value in both the draft and UFA/RFA. E.g., most people thought I was crazy at the time to give up a 1st for a DL - even the best DL. The thing is, it wasn't just trading 1.13 for Allen straight up - it was getting him at 350k instead of $3m. But I knew the league overlooked that position compared to others.
If you use salary/contract yr cap, a well-managed team with a lot of room is a big advantage... and can create value in and of itself (e.g., worth a pick, taking the penalty, etc).
If you draft well, you can always have a backlog of players who can grow into a starter's role.
Cash in on players when their value is high and you have that depth
Don't be afraid to blow up a bad team. Sometimes cutting everyone, selling anything of value, is better than being middling forever. I sold guys who would have made me more competitive, but I was better off in the long run for selling those guys to competitive teams that paid somewhat of a premium to fill holes on a playoff-caliber team.
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Whiplash Inc.
Footballguy
I don't mean this in a bad way at all, but what is JaMarcus (still) doing on your roster? Wouldn't you be better off spending that money on other players, or is there a penalty if you drop him now? Thanks for sharing tho, was an interesting read.
Thanks SSOG and F&L...you guys are rock stars.
I sctrached the F. Jones for Gates offer. I think I can get more for Jones if he strings 2 or 3 good games together...
I am thinking about trading Grant and Keller for Gates and LeSean McCoy. I like McCoy's upside more than Grant.
Any thoughts?
Cheers.
I sctrached the F. Jones for Gates offer. I think I can get more for Jones if he strings 2 or 3 good games together...
I am thinking about trading Grant and Keller for Gates and LeSean McCoy. I like McCoy's upside more than Grant.
Any thoughts?
Cheers.
I may have mentioned what SSoG stands for, I may not. In reality, it doesn't stand for anything (or, more accurately, it stands for a lot of things). Once upon a time, I had an AIM screen name with the initials SSoG. After a while, I changed my AIM s/n (because the whole purpose of having an AIM s/n is using it for 3 months and then changing it to something else), and the new s/n had the initials SSoG, too. I created a hotmail account that was a different name that had the initials SSoG. Eventually, after a couple of iterations, I decided to ditch all of the different names and just go by the initials. Basically, it stands for whatever you want it to stand for.
Anyway, your Fitzgerald question is easy enough to answer. In '04, Josh McCown started 4 games. In those 4 games, Fitzgerald averaged 5.8 grabs for 86.3 yards and .83 TDs- that's 93/1380/13 over a full season. With Josh McCown. Perhaps even more applicable, Leinart started 5 games in 2007, and Fitzgerald averaged 6.8 grabs for 89.6 yards and .2 scores (prorates to 109/1433/3). Those TD numbers are a little low, but TDs are very volatile and we're talking about a 5 game sample, so that doesn't really worry me. The important thing is that, even without Warner, Fitz is a 100/1400 kind of guy.As for the dearth of special RBs... if history is any indication, even if next year's RB class is relatively lightly regarded, it'll still increase the number of special RBs in the league. Nobody really thought that Ray Rice or MJD were going to light the league on fire like they have so far, either.
It's not a bad trade, but I would have been more excited about the Felix-for-Gates trade. I'm very high on Keller (I've mentioned a couple of times that I had him at TE4 or 5 coming into the season, and although I've cooled on him somewhat, have him hovering around TE6/7 in my rankings). With that said, Grant/McCoy is basically a wash, and Gates is a definite upgrade over Keller. You didn't want to trade Felix for Gates because it'd be selling low on Felix, but I question whether this isn't selling low on Keller, instead.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think we're missing a pretty big point here, though. Kurt Warner of 2009 isn't very good, and he's certainly nowhere near the Kurt Warner of 2007-2008. In fact, it's probable that Matt Leinart would be better for Fitz's value right now. Fitz is on pace for 100 catches, but he's also on pace for about 350 less passing yards this year, and his yards per catch is down 4.1 from last season.Warner can't throw the ball beyond 20 yards right now, and he's turned into Capt. Checkdown (much to the delight of Tim Hightower owners in PPR leagues). Fitz can catch the ball within 20 yards, but his big plays come down the field. He needs a new QB because Warner is hurting him right now.Love reading this stuff. In my contract keeper league, I had a trade materialize very quickly today (deadline every Wed. night).
I traded away Sanchez and Donald Brown to get Roethlisberger, A Caldwell, and J. Harrison.
Caldwell and Harrison are throw-ins for me. I really wanted to get Ben because we're moving to 2 QB start lineup next season and Ben was cheap. I'll have Ben and McNabb now.
I used to hoard young and cheap (cap space) RBs, but after reading this thread, I've come around to use them as chips to acquire "core" players.
Lineup now:
QB: McNabb, Ben
RB: AP, MJD, McFadden, Harrison
WR: Colston, Jennings, Boldin, Holmes, Caldwell
TE: Gates, Boss
K: Kaeding
D: Gates
I need to bring home the championship this year as MJD is a free agent next year and I would have to pay a lot to "franchise" AP to keep him for one more season. I'm hoping I'll be able to unearth some RB values next season.
Now if I can just unload McFadden on someone.
I traded away Sanchez and Donald Brown to get Roethlisberger, A Caldwell, and J. Harrison.
Caldwell and Harrison are throw-ins for me. I really wanted to get Ben because we're moving to 2 QB start lineup next season and Ben was cheap. I'll have Ben and McNabb now.
I used to hoard young and cheap (cap space) RBs, but after reading this thread, I've come around to use them as chips to acquire "core" players.
Lineup now:
QB: McNabb, Ben
RB: AP, MJD, McFadden, Harrison
WR: Colston, Jennings, Boldin, Holmes, Caldwell
TE: Gates, Boss
K: Kaeding
D: Gates
I need to bring home the championship this year as MJD is a free agent next year and I would have to pay a lot to "franchise" AP to keep him for one more season. I'm hoping I'll be able to unearth some RB values next season.
Now if I can just unload McFadden on someone.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
We've touched on Moreno quite a bit, but I guess it's been several weeks since we last discussed him. After covering the Broncos in four out of the seven games this season, my opinion on his value has not changed. I'm very comfortable with where he's ranked.Furthermore, I don't see Correll Buckhalter as any concern whatsoever for his long-term value, and I couldn't disagree more that he'll have a hard time keeping the Buckhalters of the world on the bench in the future. Rookie backs often split time with veterans, and Moreno has almost doubled Buckhalter's touches this season.
You're right that I've talked about the way both backs have been used, and this is not a small point. First of all, Buckhalter's percentage numbers are the result of a small sample size. By the end of the year, they will likely be right in line with his Philly numbers -- which are very impressive in rate stats. I couldn't tell you how many times Buckhalter would enter a game and bust off a big run when Brian Westbrook had been struggling. It's what Buckhalter does -- he's a very good role player. Secondly, it's absolutely true that Moreno is being used as the between-the-tackles runner, and it's keeping his numbers artificially low.
Football Outsiders shows Moreno as the 7th best back in the NFL in success rate. More impressive, he leads all NFL backs, period, in fewest negative plays.
Knowshon's offensive coordinator even admits that his usage is affecting his numbers: "No. 1, you've got to get him out in space," offensive coordinator Mike McCoy said. "You get him out in space, I'm sure he's going to make the next guy miss more often that not."
We're also talking about a player with off-the-charts intangibles. He was drafted No. 12 overall because he doesn't really have a weakness. He's an excellent pass-blocker, a terrific receiver, can run inside, and can make plays outside. One of his coaches earlier this year called him the best team leader he's ever seen in a young player.
He's obviously no burner in the open field, but his short-area burst is fantastic. Here's a sampling from Rotoworld's game charters this season (found in Season Pass).
* Knowshon Moreno showed no signs of a groin injury that had him questionable going into the game. He looked explosive and powerful, showing a nice burst and always falling forward for extra yardage. Correll Buckhalter isn't going anywhere as the change of pace back, but Moreno's showing will keep him in the feature back role.
* Showing where they stood on their backfield committee, the Broncos introduced both Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter with the starting offense. Buckhalter has been used as the receiving back and outside runner, helping to boost his yards per touch. Though Moreno is running very well, he's handling all of the tougher, high-traffic inside runs.
* Knowshon Moreno’s numbers weren’t eye-popping, but he played very tough. He had to come out of the game twice while gimpy, but immediately went back in the game. He picked up the blitz well and got more yards than what was blocked. He’s the real deal.
* Moreno was the only effective offensive player for the Broncos against the stout Ravens defense, but his carries were limited with Denver playing from behind in the second half ... This was a low scoring defensive battle until the fourth quarter. Both teams hit hard, and the yards accrued by Ray Rice and Knowshon Moreno were well earned.
corpcow
Footballguy
Yeah, there's a penalty for dropping players - you pay 50% the first year, 40% the second year, etc, for the life of the contract. So, cutting Jamarcus would still cost me 1.4m or so a year for the next few years, but since I have plenty of cap space it doesn't buy me anything but roster space. More importantly, with 16 teams, relatively deep rosters and where QBs score 6 pts per TD, there are a LOT of QBs rostered. Specifically, there are 46 QBs on active rosters right now, and 4 more on taxi squads.I don't mean this in a bad way at all, but what is JaMarcus (still) doing on your roster? Wouldn't you be better off spending that money on other players, or is there a penalty if you drop him now? Thanks for sharing tho, was an interesting read.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Torn between two quotes as a response:
Seriously, my girlfriend picked out that color to match the photo at the top of the page. Back when I had time to do Quote of the Day, music posts, game notes, baseball posts, etc., then I would tinker with the layout more often. What I really need is a techie who will volunteer to revamp the whole shebang on a website. Lord knows I'm clueless on that end.
Whiplash Inc.
Footballguy
Gotcha.Yeah, there's a penalty for dropping players - you pay 50% the first year, 40% the second year, etc, for the life of the contract. So, cutting Jamarcus would still cost me 1.4m or so a year for the next few years, but since I have plenty of cap space it doesn't buy me anything but roster space. More importantly, with 16 teams, relatively deep rosters and where QBs score 6 pts per TD, there are a LOT of QBs rostered. Specifically, there are 46 QBs on active rosters right now, and 4 more on taxi squads.I don't mean this in a bad way at all, but what is JaMarcus (still) doing on your roster? Wouldn't you be better off spending that money on other players, or is there a penalty if you drop him now? Thanks for sharing tho, was an interesting read.
And thanks, F&L for the Soup Nazi quote.... 
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I prefer to think it stands for Steve Slaton? Oh Great....I may have mentioned what SSoG stands for, I may not. In reality, it doesn't stand for anything (or, more accurately, it stands for a lot of things). Once upon a time, I had an AIM screen name with the initials SSoG. After a while, I changed my AIM s/n (because the whole purpose of having an AIM s/n is using it for 3 months and then changing it to something else), and the new s/n had the initials SSoG, too. I created a hotmail account that was a different name that had the initials SSoG. Eventually, after a couple of iterations, I decided to ditch all of the different names and just go by the initials. Basically, it stands for whatever you want it to stand for.
Let's talk Tier 2 Dynasty QB's!!
Roethleisberger - PIT seems to be leaning on the pass more. He's looking good!
Ryan - Needs more weapons to be effective. I watched the game Mon night and w/o Roddy + Gonzo who would he throw to. I'm sure they will address this in the draft next year. For a guy previously ranked in Tier 1 I am just not that impressed with him. He could be the next Peyton though but I think it's a year or two out.
Rivers - I've always liked him and with VJax emerging as a stud WR he's looking even better. I look forward to seeing how Floyd will be utilized.
Romo - Finally has a WR that can catch the ball and isn't a distraction. Wondering what happened to Witten though. Will he choke again down the stretch or is he finally living up to his expectations?
Flacco - (See Ryan) needs additional young targets to throw to. I like his poise and leadership qualities. Some days I'd prefer him over Ryan.
Schaub - I think he's finally going to beat the "injury-prone" rap and finish as a top-5 QB. Losing OD hurts a bit though.
Cutler - You bust his mouth up and he still plays as well as he can behind an O-line that leaves much to be desired. I'm not so sure Lovie & Co are the best group of coaches to further his development. He is still very inconsistent but has a ton of options to throw to contrary to pre-season thoughts.
Very interested to hear your comments regarding these guys in dynasty format.
In my league the top-tier of QB's are untouchable so for the forseeable future this is all I have to choose from. I currently own Cutler, Warner and Stafford and we start 1 QB each week.
Roethleisberger - PIT seems to be leaning on the pass more. He's looking good!
Ryan - Needs more weapons to be effective. I watched the game Mon night and w/o Roddy + Gonzo who would he throw to. I'm sure they will address this in the draft next year. For a guy previously ranked in Tier 1 I am just not that impressed with him. He could be the next Peyton though but I think it's a year or two out.
Rivers - I've always liked him and with VJax emerging as a stud WR he's looking even better. I look forward to seeing how Floyd will be utilized.
Romo - Finally has a WR that can catch the ball and isn't a distraction. Wondering what happened to Witten though. Will he choke again down the stretch or is he finally living up to his expectations?
Flacco - (See Ryan) needs additional young targets to throw to. I like his poise and leadership qualities. Some days I'd prefer him over Ryan.
Schaub - I think he's finally going to beat the "injury-prone" rap and finish as a top-5 QB. Losing OD hurts a bit though.
Cutler - You bust his mouth up and he still plays as well as he can behind an O-line that leaves much to be desired. I'm not so sure Lovie & Co are the best group of coaches to further his development. He is still very inconsistent but has a ton of options to throw to contrary to pre-season thoughts.
Very interested to hear your comments regarding these guys in dynasty format.
In my league the top-tier of QB's are untouchable so for the forseeable future this is all I have to choose from. I currently own Cutler, Warner and Stafford and we start 1 QB each week.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Big Ben - One of the best QBs in the game, period. The Steelers' best offense clearly revolves around keeping the ball in his hands in an uptempo style.Ryan - You just saw his worst game of the year. He's fine for now and gold in the future. Return of slot receiver Harry Douglass next year will help too.Rivers - What's not to like? Not a superstar, but should be Top-10 for years.Romo - As Magaw said, Austin has "weaponized" him once again. He's a good bet for 30 TDs in any year where he has a legit No. 1 receiver.Flacco - Would love to see him with more talent at wide receiver, but he's a young Big Ben and making good with what he has. His arm strength, decision-making, and intangibles are off the charts.Schaub - Let's see how he handles the loss of Daniels. Still believe he's a better fantasy QB than NFL QB.Cutler - I got a good idea about that 10-cent head of his. Still think he's Jeff George Jr. He's a doucher.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
vandelyons
Footballguy
Love the material.
I'm looking for thoughts about two WRs:
Kenny McKinley
Legedu Nannee
McKinley - Highly touted WR coming out of South Carolina. I seem to remember reading somewhere that Spurier said McKinley was the most talented WR he'd ever coached. Brandon Marshall is a free agent come 2010. During the off season debacale, it looked as though Marshall was as good as gone in 2010 (if not sooner). But now that the Broncos are winning, it appears as though tensions have calmed. Does McKinley get an opportunity in 2010?
Nannee - Chambers will likely not be resigned in 2010, leaving an open spot opposite VJax. Malcolm Floyd seems to be waiting in the wings. Will Nannee be a factor in the competion for WR2 in San Diego? Will he win the job?
I'm looking for thoughts about two WRs:
Kenny McKinley
Legedu Nannee
McKinley - Highly touted WR coming out of South Carolina. I seem to remember reading somewhere that Spurier said McKinley was the most talented WR he'd ever coached. Brandon Marshall is a free agent come 2010. During the off season debacale, it looked as though Marshall was as good as gone in 2010 (if not sooner). But now that the Broncos are winning, it appears as though tensions have calmed. Does McKinley get an opportunity in 2010?
Nannee - Chambers will likely not be resigned in 2010, leaving an open spot opposite VJax. Malcolm Floyd seems to be waiting in the wings. Will Nannee be a factor in the competion for WR2 in San Diego? Will he win the job?
one time
Footballguy
Chambers was already released
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Any thoughts on this deal trade F&L?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Unfortunately, not many. I'm no help on these contract year trades in keeper leagues because I no idea what any of it means.I think Jonathan Stewart was the best talent in the trade, but he and Williams will continue to hurt each other's numbers.I think Ray Rice will be the most productive fantasy player in the deal, and I do think you sold low on Pierre Thomas. You're higher on Stafford than I am, though I agree that Portis and Bryant are basically throw-ins at this point. Jerome Harrison is practically valueless.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I'm in major rebuilding mode in a Zealots league (53 man IDP).
I've been offered: McFadden, James Davis, Kenny Phillips, and a '10 1st (hard to say where this'll be - he's got a losing record but leads his division).
for: Barber/Choice
My thoughts......I'm not the biggest McFadden fan, though I'm a little higher on him than some like EBF. I like McFadden's situation going forward more than Barber's unless Dallas dumps Choice - which I don't see happening anytime soon given Barber's tendency to get nicked up. I like Davis, though I recognize he's not elite. Phillips is a definite bonus & should be an anchor for me for several years. Knowing that I won't get the use of Davis & Phillips til next season doesn't bother me that much.
He also sent me another offer with Moats in place of McFadden.
Thoughts?
I've been offered: McFadden, James Davis, Kenny Phillips, and a '10 1st (hard to say where this'll be - he's got a losing record but leads his division).
for: Barber/Choice
My thoughts......I'm not the biggest McFadden fan, though I'm a little higher on him than some like EBF. I like McFadden's situation going forward more than Barber's unless Dallas dumps Choice - which I don't see happening anytime soon given Barber's tendency to get nicked up. I like Davis, though I recognize he's not elite. Phillips is a definite bonus & should be an anchor for me for several years. Knowing that I won't get the use of Davis & Phillips til next season doesn't bother me that much.
He also sent me another offer with Moats in place of McFadden.
Thoughts?
RockHard
Footballguy
I disagree with your comparison between Moreno and Mendenhall for the following reasons:1. Mendenhall was not afforded the same opportunity as Moreno at the same stage of his career. Mendenhall had a total of 19
carries for his entire rookie season. Moreno has two games with over 20 carries, neither game did he manage to break 100
yards.
2. You mention that Mendenhall was able to exploit a lowly SD defense but Moreno played the same SD team and only
managed to gain 44 yards on 18 carries (ypc 2.4). Furthermore you point out that Mendenhall was held to only 69 yards
against the Vikings but it was on 10 carries (ypc 6.9).
3. You have already admitted that Moreno plays behind one of the best offensive lines in football, while Pittsburgh's line can be
described as average at best.
You admit that Moreno is not an elite back, I contend that he is just a guy. He isnt explosive, powerful, or elusive. Mendenhall is the back deserving of a top 10 dynasty ranking.
I went back and forth...traded Jones for Gates straight up. Thanks for the feedback!Cheers.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
valhallan
Footballguy
I have Finley, Keller, and Cook also and think you made a wise decision. None of them are quite ready to be an every week starter, so Gates can carry you until then.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Thanks again for the rankings, Fear and Loathing.
I think your ranking of Darren McFadden over LeSean McCoy is a bit off, though. I own McCoy, and I wouldn't trade him for McFadden. I know that McFadden has the pedigree of a great dynasty RB. But unless Oakland gets a real QB or McFadden moves to another team, I think McCoy's situation is far more favorable and thus makes him a more valuable dynasty prospect.
I think your ranking of Darren McFadden over LeSean McCoy is a bit off, though. I own McCoy, and I wouldn't trade him for McFadden. I know that McFadden has the pedigree of a great dynasty RB. But unless Oakland gets a real QB or McFadden moves to another team, I think McCoy's situation is far more favorable and thus makes him a more valuable dynasty prospect.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I just don't think McCoy is that good.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I dig. I think this is the debate between talent vs. opportunity. I don't see how McFadden has the opportunity to succeed in Oakland. And McFadden doesn't have that transcendental talent like Adrian Peterson or Walter Payton to be dominant on a mediocre team.
Was referring to Romo.
That, or Steve Smith Oughta Getouttacarolina.I prefer to think it stands for Steve Slaton? Oh Great....I may have mentioned what SSoG stands for, I may not. In reality, it doesn't stand for anything (or, more accurately, it stands for a lot of things). Once upon a time, I had an AIM screen name with the initials SSoG. After a while, I changed my AIM s/n (because the whole purpose of having an AIM s/n is using it for 3 months and then changing it to something else), and the new s/n had the initials SSoG, too. I created a hotmail account that was a different name that had the initials SSoG. Eventually, after a couple of iterations, I decided to ditch all of the different names and just go by the initials. Basically, it stands for whatever you want it to stand for.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t=0&start=0IIRC, It used to be pinned once upon a time. No clue why it isn't anymore, very useful thread.
Hester, although I also really like Rice. I was a big fan of his coming out, and when a receiver I originally liked starts putting things together, I'm quick to move him up. I have Hester higher because he has the potential to be a more dominant receiver, both in NFL terms and in fantasy terms (Jay Cutler WR1s are not to be trifled with).
That was, in fact, the very first iteration. In my defense, I was 16, and I changed it upon realizing, on second thought, that it was a borderline toolish thing to name oneself.
Although, if I'm being perfectly honest with myself, "borderline toolish" is actually somewhat apt. I view Barber as an asset in decline, so getting a first for him when you're rebuilding is a solid move- not great, not terrible. I view Choice as a potential starter going forward, but McFadden trumps him as a dynasty asset. Getting Davis and Phillips in the bargain is just gravy. From my armchair, that looks like a very good trade for a team in major rebuilding mode. You're not raking him over the coals, but you're definitely improving your squad for the long term.
1. The fact that Mendenhall had a total of 19 carries for his entire rookie season is pretty damning in and of itself. He was stuck behind Willie Freaking Parker. Jon Stewart was stuck behind The Renaissance of DeAngelo Williams and he still got 184. When Steven Jackson was stuck behind The Man, The Myth, The Faulk, he still got 134. Besides, it's not as if those 19 carries are all we've seen of him. He got extended action in his first preseason, and was pretty awful during that, as well. It was so bad that one prominent member around here was claiming several weeks into this season that Rashard Mendenhall had not once during a single even borderline-competitive carry (actual season or preseason) made so much as a single positive play. The Mendenhall owners were getting psyched up because he had one good play in week 2 or 3, so they now had SOMETHING positive to point to.2. None of this changes the fact that Mendenhall has had three good games, and they've all come against three of the worst run defenses in the league. It's shades of Cadillac Williams over here. You point out how poorly Moreno did against SD... allow me to point you to the dozen times I've said that I don't think Moreno is a special talent. That has no bearing on the argument that Mendenhall is not a special talent, either.
3. Yes, I have. All the more reason to like him more going forward. When faced with two unspecial talents, give me the one with the better situation (and with more opportunity to prove me wrong).
thatguy
Footballguy
Wow, so I've been right all these years.That was, in fact, the very first iteration. In my defense, I was 16, and I changed it upon realizing, on second thought, that it was a borderline toolish thing to name oneself.
atsselfonback:I wouldn't really call it toolish, I could see myself doing something similar in my younger years (but, perhaps I'm a tool 
).In any case, you are definitely no tool.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
That was, in fact, the very first iteration. In my defense, I was 16, and I changed it upon realizing, on second thought, that it was a borderline toolish thing to name oneself.
Two years ago or so I had grouped you with LHUCKS and switz as guys that are very hard to listen to, but may be worth it.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Thanks for your input, SS. I had already pulled the trigger, but it's nice to have at least some support.Man, this has been a whirlwind few days in that league for me. I both acquired & traded away Barber, so leaving him out since he's a net wash I've:Traded: Frank GoreAntrel RolleCarson PalmerTashard ChoiceGot:Josh FreemanVince YoungJames DavisDarren McFaddenMike ThomasBrian RobiskieKenny Phillips2010 1st round pick2010 2nd round pickI don't have many valuable assets left - Big Ben is by far my best - but I have a few established vets who can fill some depth or last starter spots so I may not be done yet.
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
Didnt Ray Lewis break one of Mendenhall's bones at the start of last season, putting him on IR?
I may not be a tool, but I have definite toolish tendencies.Wow, so I've been right all these years.).In any case, you are definitely no tool.
thatguy
Footballguy
Don't we all?I may not be a tool, but I have definite toolish tendencies.Wow, so I've been right all these years.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I liked your team much better before. It's not like those guys you gave up are ancient. I wish you the best, but I don't think you received near enough in return for what you gave up. I think you'll have a heck of a time recovering from these moves. Good luck.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think it's worthwhile to look at the entire body of work, not just a few gamesHere are the numbers for Fitz with/without Warner
With Warner:
6.3 rec, 90.3yds, 0.7 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 101 rec, 1445 yds, 11 TDs
Without Warner:
4.6 rec, 60.9yds, 0.46 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 74 rec, 974 yds, 7 TDs
Even if we throw out his rookie season, he's still down 200+ yards and 5 TDs.
Without Warner (rookie season thrown out):
5.9rec, 77 yds, 0.41 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 94 rec, 1230 yds, 6 TDs
Keep in mind I'm posting this as a Fitzgerald dynasty owner.
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Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
It's all good, man. Different ways of looking at things are what makes dynasty leagues go 'round. I didn't post the rest of my roster, but it's a total rebuild - my entire defensive roster needs to be completely rebuilt from the ground up, as does my WR corps (got a zillion #4s & worse, with the only potential bright spots being Nicks & Stroughter). My RBs are shaky too, but they were beforehand & I was already the worst team in the league. I'm thinking 3-4 years, at which time Gore will probably be heading towards the end. Palmer should still be good, as should Rolle, and I really like Choice but hate his situation. The only players I got that could possibly ever be studs are McFadden, Phillips, and (though I doubt it) Young. But I did get the picks and they give me more felxibility going forward.I dunno....we'll see. I took this team over this year. There were 4 new owners & we had a draft just among the 4 of us including all of the players that had been on the 4 abandoned teams. There's a reason they were abandoned, though my re-drafted team turned out the worst.
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