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Preliminary Rankings Sort of a Mess? (1 Viewer)

Otis

Otis

Footballguy
In some instances it seems like it's almost better not to look at these, because they seem like such a mess (unless there's something I'm missing here).

This is not a WDIS thread. It's a WTH thread.

I'm deciding between Romo and Roehtlisberger this week, two guys who are both having nice seasons and are neck-and-neck in points per game. So I typically play the matchups.

This week CLE is an absurdly good matchup for Big Ben. He threw for over 400 against them earlier in the season. Romo's got SD, which to me seems like a much more average matchup. So I go in thinking that Big Ben is the play this week. Even if you factor in potential bad weather tonight, it seems like at least a close call, and even with Hines Ward out, Holmes and Wallace have been solid this season, and Heath Miller will be out there as well. I'm still on the fence, but still leaning Roehtlisberger. Sure enough, the Passing Matchups confirm my suspicion that CLE is a far softer pass defense, and that confirms my instinct to go with Roehtlisberger. I then look at the preliminary rankings that just came out...

Romo is the #2 ranked QB.

Roehtlisberger ? #28. Yes, that's twenty-eight.

I know these rankings can move, sometimes dramatically, between the preliminary and final versions. But holy cow does this seem like a mess to me, particularly when one of the guys plays in less than 12 hours.

Am I missing something here?

 
Very cold and very high winds forecast for tonight in Cleveland. That and Hines Ward very possibly missing tonight's game are probably contributing to Big Ben's low ranking.

 
do you think Ben should be ranked/projected higher?

do you think Romo should be ranked/projected lower?

if so, how much?

I think the weather and loss of Ward is enough to push down Ben a bit. Chargers pass D is not very good.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Very cold and very high winds forecast for tonight in Cleveland. That and Hines Ward very possibly missing tonight's game are probably contributing to Big Ben's low ranking.
Click to expand...
#28? There are 32 teams playing this weekend. That's pretty low for a guy going up against a Browns offense he dismantled for over 400 yards earlier in the season. Will they be playing in the middle of the tornado that scooped up Dorothy's house?And Romo at #2 doesn't make a ton of sense to me either. Over Manning, Brady, Rodgers? Files must be corrupt or something here.
 
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Very cold and very high winds forecast for tonight in Cleveland. That and Hines Ward very possibly missing tonight's game are probably contributing to Big Ben's low ranking.
Click to expand...
#28? There are 32 teams playing this weekend. That's pretty low for a guy going up against a Browns offense he dismantled for over 400 yards earlier in the season. Will they be playing in the middle of the tornado that scooped up Dorothy's house?
Click to expand...
they were calling for 60 MPH winds when these rankings came out. HTH
 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
do you think Ben should be ranked/projected higher?

do you think Romo should be ranked/projected lower?

if so, how much?

I think the weather and loss of Ward is enough to push down Ben a bit. Chargers pass D is not very good.
Click to expand...
Absolutely on both counts. If they were both positioned somewhere in the 8-20 slots that would seem right to me. Frankly, like I said, I view them as a coinflip this week, perhaps with a slight edge to Romo all factors considered. By the top and bottom? That doesn't make any sense to me.I agree with you that the weather and loss of Ward is enough to push Ben down a bit. If he's average the 8th or so fantasy QB, maybe he slides down to 12? 15? You've got to consider his opponent too.

As for the Chargers, the passing matchups consider it a neutral matchup for Romo, and that sounds about right to me. So with Romo having a neutral matchup and an average week, maybe he should be down somewhere around the #10QB?

 
gianmarco said:
I've said it before and I'll say it again.These threads never end well......
Click to expand...
I always think these threads are stupid, and I usually disagree with them, but this disparity boggled my mind. Maybe they'll end up spot-on and I'll be glad I followed them. But what the heck do I know.
 
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Very cold and very high winds forecast for tonight in Cleveland. That and Hines Ward very possibly missing tonight's game are probably contributing to Big Ben's low ranking.
Click to expand...
#28? There are 32 teams playing this weekend. That's pretty low for a guy going up against a Browns offense he dismantled for over 400 yards earlier in the season. Will they be playing in the middle of the tornado that scooped up Dorothy's house?And Romo at #2 doesn't make a ton of sense to me either. Over Manning, Brady, Rodgers? Files must be corrupt or something here.
Click to expand...
based on the projections, the 21st to 28th ranked QBs all are within a projected single fantasy point of each other. that's a big tier.
 
Things like Romo moving from #2 to #8 happen every week. That's what Joe means when he says that early projections change around a lot. Generally what I've found is that if someone seems way too high or way too low in the preliminary projects, they usually sort themselves out by Friday. So I'd guess that Romo ends up around 5-10 and Big Ben ends up around 15-20 (due to the factors mentioned above).

 
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions. Also, it wouldn't surprise me if the Steelers try to ramp up the rushing attack to try to get it going for the playoffs.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.

 
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
I live 30 minutes south of cleveland and the winds have been ridiculous the last 2 days.If it stays like this, any qb would be lucky to throw for 150.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions. Also, it wouldn't surprise me if the Steelers try to ramp up the rushing attack to try to get it going for the playoffs.
Click to expand...
[Mora]PLAYOFFS?!?[/Mora]
 
Not sure if Otis is overthinking or underthinking this one?

Seems like a coin flip. :yucky:

Easy decision to Start Romo this week my fitted shirt wearing friend.

 
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
You sound bitter about the weather and like you're taking it out on FBG's interpretation of it.If you disagree, start him.

 
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
It's not the snow that is the issue with the weather ... it's the wind (combined with the snow ... but mostly the high winds being forecast), So while I agree with the bump up to snow offenses philosophy, the bump down for wind overrides it tonight
 
FantasyTrader said:
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
You sound bitter about the weather and like you're taking it out on FBG's interpretation of it.If you disagree, start him.
Click to expand...
:unsure: someone PM Otis and tell him the difference between snow and wind.

 
Romo went nearly 400 yards and 3TDs last week against the Giants. Romo had 300 yards and 2TDs the week before against Oakland. Brady Quinn put up 270 and 3TDs against the Chargers last week. Chargers Pass D is in the bottom half of the league. Dallas is at home. Considering all those things, I think Romo is definitely a top 5 play. I'd say 300 yards and 2-3TDs for Romo.

Roethlisberger tonight is a nightmare scenario. Bad weather with very high winds, team on a losing streak (including Chiefs and Raiders), road game, Hines Ward likely out. If they were playing Cleveland on a nice fast track with great weather and all the weapons in place, then Big Ben would be a great play. They are playing against the elements tonight and also against the lowly Browns. The high winds are a more formidable opponent.

I think the rankings for these two are right on AS IS. Remember that only a couple points will separate #2 from #10 player, so some of the play in the numbers is due to more intangible things (e.g., like adding a 0.1 rushing TD chance for someone like Romo).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TWP said:
Things like Romo moving from #2 to #8 happen every week. That's what Joe means when he says that early projections change around a lot. Generally what I've found is that if someone seems way too high or way too low in the preliminary projects, they usually sort themselves out by Friday. So I'd guess that Romo ends up around 5-10 and Big Ben ends up around 15-20 (due to the factors mentioned above).
Click to expand...
Yeah, hopefully they'll be able to improve on Big Ben's ranking by some time on Friday.
 
bigbottom said:
TWP said:
Things like Romo moving from #2 to #8 happen every week. That's what Joe means when he says that early projections change around a lot. Generally what I've found is that if someone seems way too high or way too low in the preliminary projects, they usually sort themselves out by Friday. So I'd guess that Romo ends up around 5-10 and Big Ben ends up around 15-20 (due to the factors mentioned above).
Click to expand...
Yeah, hopefully they'll be able to improve on Big Ben's ranking by some time on Friday.
Click to expand...
:( in seriousness though, if you look at the game predictor, it looks like Ben got a downgrade from those numbers based on weather.

Pitt is a double digit favorite in this game and the over/under is around 32 or 33 at some books. Nobody is expecting a lot of points tonight and this looks like a game where Pittsburgh should be able to win with their running game and defense.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
SD missing Weddle is huge.

I can't see more than 17 points total being scored tonight. A lot harder to catch the ball when the windchill is -5.

 
Comer said:
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
Ben could not hold TB's jock
Click to expand...
Really? I respectfully disagree.
 
big0mar said:
SD missing Weddle is huge.

I can't see more than 17 points total being scored tonight. A lot harder to catch the ball when the windchill is -5.
Click to expand...
So now it's too cold for football?Deducting 214 yards from Ben's projected total tonight due to tummy ache.

 
bigbottom said:
TWP said:
Things like Romo moving from #2 to #8 happen every week. That's what Joe means when he says that early projections change around a lot. Generally what I've found is that if someone seems way too high or way too low in the preliminary projects, they usually sort themselves out by Friday. So I'd guess that Romo ends up around 5-10 and Big Ben ends up around 15-20 (due to the factors mentioned above).
Click to expand...
Yeah, hopefully they'll be able to improve on Big Ben's ranking by some time on Friday.
Click to expand...
#28
 
Otis said:
big0mar said:
SD missing Weddle is huge.

I can't see more than 17 points total being scored tonight. A lot harder to catch the ball when the windchill is -5.
Click to expand...
So now it's too cold for football?Deducting 214 yards from Ben's projected total tonight due to tummy ache.
Click to expand...
When did I say it was too cold for football???The fact is, catching a football when its -5 outside is a lot harder than it is when its 35 degrees outside. The coaches know this, and they aren't going to put the players in position to fail. Not to mention its hard to complete a pass in 40mph winds.

But please, by all means start Roethlisberger tonight.

 
todisco1 said:
Comer said:
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
Ben could not hold TB's jock
Click to expand...
Really? I respectfully disagree.
Click to expand...
When talking at Brady you say 50 td's in a season.You say best player on the field.You say MVP. You don't say any of those things when it comes to Ben.
 
Comer said:
todisco1 said:
Comer said:
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
Ben could not hold TB's jock
Click to expand...
Really? I respectfully disagree.
Click to expand...
When talking at Brady you say 50 td's in a season.You say best player on the field.You say MVP. You don't say any of those things when it comes to Ben.
Click to expand...
I'm not making an argument that Ben is better than Brady. You're saying he "couldn't hold his jock." You're saying Roethlisberger shouldn't even be on the same field as Brady. I disagree. I think he's an elite QB as well.
 
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
It's a common misconception that snow makes things tough for the offense. Snow actually FAVORS the offense. It makes the field a bit sloppy and slippery, which gives WRs a huge advantage over CBs. WRs know exactly when they're going to cut and exactly which way they're cutting, whereas CBs are just reacting. That gives WRs a chance to set their feet properly so they're less likely to fall on their ###- a luxury which CBs are not afforded. RBs enjoy the same kind of advantage against LBs. Snowy fields make it very tough for a defense to stay upright and cut as sharply or as quickly as the offensive players. A wet field has the same effect.Now, wind and rain are just the opposite- they favor the defense. Rain makes the ball more slippery, and if it's heavy enough it also virtually eliminates the downfield passing game. Wind is even worse- high winds make passing essentially impossible. If winds really are averaging 30+ miles per hour tonight, I will be surprised if the two teams pass for 400 yards COMBINED. Look at some gamebooks from games played in 30+ MPH winds sometime. They look like something straight out of 1926.

 
' said:
It's not the snow that is the issue with the weather ... it's the wind
Click to expand...
Agreed. 25 to 35 MPH winds with gusts up to 40 MPH.

Doesn't seem like weather conducive to a pass-happy gameplan. At least Big Ben owners will get to check out the situation on TV prior to game time.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Otis said:
This week CLE is an absurdly good matchup for Big Ben. He threw for over 400 against them earlier in the season. Romo's got SD, which to me seems like a much more average matchup. So I go in thinking that Big Ben is the play this week. Even if you factor in potential bad weather tonight, it seems like at least a close call, and even with Hines Ward out, Holmes and Wallace have been solid this season, and Heath Miller will be out there as well. I'm still on the fence, but still leaning Roehtlisberger. Sure enough, the Passing Matchups confirm my suspicion that CLE is a far softer pass defense, and that confirms my instinct to go with Roehtlisberger. I then look at the preliminary rankings that just came out...Romo is the #2 ranked QB.Roehtlisberger ? #28. Yes, that's twenty-eight.I know these rankings can move, sometimes dramatically, between the preliminary and final versions. But holy cow does this seem like a mess to me, particularly when one of the guys plays in less than 12 hours.Am I missing something here?
Click to expand...
:coffee:
 
SSOG said:
Otis said:
GroveDiesel said:
Weather forecast is 19 degrees to start the game with 25-35 mph winds and a 50% chance of snow. Those really aren't optimal passing conditions.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 5 TDs in a HALF in the snow earlier this year.

Bump up all your snow offenses, gang.
Click to expand...
It's a common misconception that snow makes things tough for the offense. Snow actually FAVORS the offense. It makes the field a bit sloppy and slippery, which gives WRs a huge advantage over CBs. WRs know exactly when they're going to cut and exactly which way they're cutting, whereas CBs are just reacting. That gives WRs a chance to set their feet properly so they're less likely to fall on their ###- a luxury which CBs are not afforded. RBs enjoy the same kind of advantage against LBs. Snowy fields make it very tough for a defense to stay upright and cut as sharply or as quickly as the offensive players. A wet field has the same effect.Now, wind and rain are just the opposite- they favor the defense. Rain makes the ball more slippery, and if it's heavy enough it also virtually eliminates the downfield passing game. Wind is even worse- high winds make passing essentially impossible. If winds really are averaging 30+ miles per hour tonight, I will be surprised if the two teams pass for 400 yards COMBINED. Look at some gamebooks from games played in 30+ MPH winds sometime. They look like something straight out of 1926.
Click to expand...
Forget 400, they didn't even combine for 300. And that's against two of the worst secondaries in the league.Wind = bad.

 
The updated projections did have Ben at #21 and Romo at #4 for those scoring at home. The initial 28 ranking was based on projected winds of 40+ mph and no Hines Ward. These were adjusted multiple times today and just before kickoff to finalize Ben's 21st ranking for the week.

 
David Dodds said:
The updated projections did have Ben at #21 and Romo at #4 for those scoring at home. The initial 28 ranking was based on projected winds of 40+ mph and no Hines Ward. These were adjusted multiple times today and just before kickoff to finalize Ben's 21st ranking for the week.
Click to expand...
Good call..
 
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