And if Boldin is gone, I'd expect the targets to actually go up, as hard as that otherwise might be to believe. I could see Fitz putting up 180+ targets in Arizona if Boldin was gone,
That would be assuming that the Cardinals are able to sustain drives as well as they did under Warner though. A lot more 3 and outs are going to cause the overall targets to decrease - perhaps significantly. I'm not saying that will actually happen, but I just have not been impressed with Leinart during his brief appearnces recently (St. Pierre looked much better after repalcing him in Week 17 and Leinart looked lost in the playoffs). I realize its unfiar to judge him on such small sample sizes, but as great as Fitzgerald is he can't put up the numbers we've grown accustomed to if the QB play isn't there.
It also assumes that the offensive philosophy doesn't change to a more balanced approach, which is what I expect. That would likely reduce passing attempts quite a bit independent of how good they are at sustaining drives. As I posted earlier, Fitz has only averaged 8.1 targets per game with Leinart, and that is in the pass-heavy offense.
Two main points to respond to, here. The first is that the loss of Boldin and Warner would lead to fewer sustained drives and fewer offensive plays, the second is that the loss of Warner and Boldin will lead to a radical shift in run/pass ratio.First: Loss of Warner/Boldin = fewer offensive plays.
Last season, Arizona ran 985 offensive plays. In 2008, they ran 998. In 2007, they ran 1016. The worst offense in the entire league during those seasons ran 911, 913, and 919 plays, respectively. Arizona's play totals have ranked 22nd, 15th, and 13th, respectively, in those three seasons. So Arizona is already only running an average number of plays. Even if their offense regresses, they're a stone-cold lock for at least 950 plays a year (only three teams ran fewer offensive plays than that last year), which would represent less than 50 fewer offensive plays over a full season.
Second: Loss of Warner/Boldin = dramatic shift in run/pass ratio.
The entire league as a whole passed 52.9% of the time last season. Arizona passed 60.3% of the time. Even if Arizona suffers a RADICAL scheme shift and becomes more run-heavy than the league-average team, they'll still almost certainly pass at least 50% of the time.
So let's consider a "perfect storm" so to speak- Arizona becomes one of the most run-heavy teams in the league *AND* Arizona finishes in the bottom 5 in total offensive plays. In that case, you could expect Arizona to run 950 plays. Half of them would be passes, for 475 passes. That's a reduction in pass attempts of 119 from what Arizona did this year, which is hugely significant. Of course, Boldin alone had 128 targets this year, meaning even in the absolute worst case scenario imaginable, there will still be more targets to go around. Might they go to Breaston or Doucet? Probably, but even if Arizona morphs into a terrible offense based on the run, there'll still be plenty of opportunity for Fitzgerald to put up 160+ targets.
assing TDs: 5-8 pt depending on length.084 per passing yard, 3 pts bonus for every 250 yds-1 per sack, -3 per INT.143 per rushing yardThanks in advance, looking forward to your response once again
A few notable others - again, we're talking rankings dated 1/10/10:Tomlinson - 14thRay Rice - 24th 
Obviously Boldin being gone isn't a done deal at this point, but we're talking Dynasty, and I think there's a 0% chance that Boldin is still a Cardinal two seasons from now. For the next year or two, Fitzgerald might "only" be a low-end top 10 option... but that's a small price to pay for such a transcendent talent. Besides, it's not like Calvin Johnson is more likely to put up a top 5 finish than Fitzgerald is next year, Warner or no Warner.
Obviously Boldin being gone isn't a done deal at this point, but we're talking Dynasty, and I think there's a 0% chance that Boldin is still a Cardinal two seasons from now. For the next year or two, Fitzgerald might "only" be a low-end top 10 option... but that's a small price to pay for such a transcendent talent. Besides, it's not like Calvin Johnson is more likely to put up a top 5 finish than Fitzgerald is next year, Warner or no Warner.
Obviously Boldin being gone isn't a done deal at this point, but we're talking Dynasty, and I think there's a 0% chance that Boldin is still a Cardinal two seasons from now. For the next year or two, Fitzgerald might "only" be a low-end top 10 option... but that's a small price to pay for such a transcendent talent. Besides, it's not like Calvin Johnson is more likely to put up a top 5 finish than Fitzgerald is next year, Warner or no Warner.Outside of Andre Johnson and maybe Randy Moss, what kind of WRs would people take over Fitzgerald in redraft next season? Serious question- I'm curious about what the FBG consensus opinion is on how far Fitz will fall next year.
