mlball77
Footballguy
Hard to say it much better than that when thinking through projections and what is reasonable vs. aggressive (or maybe very risky).I don’t think projecting Finely for 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs is impossible for him to achieve, but it is improbable. –No denying, on my part, that Finley has incredible upside though.
One other issue at hand with projections of single players at a time, imo, is that they are often done with little-to-no context within history (as touched on a few times by SSOG in this thread) or within the parameters of what a team is likely to produce as a whole. And I am definitely guilty of this from time to time.
If a person is projecting Finley to have 1250 yards and 12 TDs, for example, what is left for the other GB receiving targets… or is Rodgers simply going to throw for 5,500 yards and 45 TDs in 2010? Often times when doing a projection for a single player, I think we fail to look at the larger picture and simply say, “I think this guy is a stud and will have a big year” (and then just throw out some numbers a stud could produce). While this is an absolutely fine thought to have, if we look at a player without any real context, our projections may not be too meaningful.
Now I realize that doing projections for the entire league isn’t realistic for must of us, but I am just making the point that sometimes these things are largely overlooked in the player projection threads.
