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Ryan Mathews will not break 1000 yds rushing this year (1 Viewer)

gianmarco

gianmarco

Footballguy
I know this is going to be quite an unpopular viewpoint and I'm sure most in this thread will tell me as much. However, the closer things get, the more I think that many people are going to be disappointed with Ryan Mathews in 2010.

The interesting thing is that I actually think he's got talent and looks good from the video highlights of him that I've seen. I also think that SD believes in him evidenced by trading up so high to get him. I think the future will be bright for him even though I don't think he has top 3-4 RB potential like Chris Johnson or ADP.

All that said, the expectations of him that I've seen from many here including his player spotlight thread as well as recent rankings putting him in the top 10 for this year are making me cringe. I may indeed be wrong but I'm not sure his ypc is going to be high enough to hit 1000 yards and I simply don't see him getting close to 300 carries. I do think that the main part of his value is going to come from TDs. I see a repeat of what Moreno did this past year for him in terms of numbers.

We all love the hype trains and it seems there's a lot of folks on the Mathews wagon. I'm going to say that wagon is a year premature and there's going to be lots of people looking for refunds by the end of 2010.

 
gianmarco said:
I know this is going to be quite an unpopular viewpoint and I'm sure most in this thread will tell me as much. However, the closer things get, the more I think that many people are going to be disappointed with Ryan Mathews in 2010.The interesting thing is that I actually think he's got talent and looks good from the video highlights of him that I've seen. I also think that SD believes in him evidenced by trading up so high to get him. I think the future will be bright for him even though I don't think he has top 3-4 RB potential like Chris Johnson or ADP.All that said, the expectations of him that I've seen from many here including his player spotlight thread as well as recent rankings putting him in the top 10 for this year are making me cringe. I may indeed be wrong but I'm not sure his ypc is going to be high enough to hit 1000 yards and I simply don't see him getting close to 300 carries. I do think that the main part of his value is going to come from TDs. I see a repeat of what Moreno did this past year for him in terms of numbers.We all love the hype trains and it seems there's a lot of folks on the Mathews wagon. I'm going to say that wagon is a year premature and there's going to be lots of people looking for refunds by the end of 2010.
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Please keep this anti-hype train going (wink)
 
Just because you bypassed him at 1.02 and took Spiller instead is no reason to throw spitwads at Mathews.

 
JohnnyU said:
Just because you bypassed him at 1.02 and took Spiller instead is no reason to throw spitwads at Mathews.
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It's even more of a reason as it would look silly if I took him but then posted this. There's a reason I passed on him, although it's more to do with what I think of Spiller and much less to do with what I think of Best and Mathews. And, despite the fact that you may not have read very carefully, I actually like both Mathews AND Best a good bit (much more than other rookies in the recent past).I just don't think Mathews is going to be this top 10 RB in 2010 like many seem to think. To me, it seems many are looking at him being the sole ball carrier and that he's some lock for 1200 yds and double digit TDs. The SD O-line isn't as good as people think and I don't see Mathews approaching 300 carries as a rookie. I think it's going to take some time for him.

 
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I don't like the Moreno comparison as Knowshon got hurt in preseason and missed a lot of important practice time so he started behind the curve.

I am not sure if Matthews will be a top RB this year or not but of all the rookie RBs he is clearly in the best position to succeed.

I will be higher on him if SD finally signs Marcus McNeil. My goodness AJ pay the man you cheap #######!

 
What's the reason for your contrarian view Gianmarco? I think the reason the bullish view is the consensus one is because there's a lot to back up the optimism, not the least of which the head coach (noted for a good running attack) has come out and put out very specific expectations for the rookie. Combine that with the fact he was a first rounder, on a team without competition for carries (Turner has already said Sproles is there to to what he did last year...play great special teams and catch passes) and a comfort level that it's hardly unusual for rookie RBs to be fantasy stars, and I think it's easy to project the upside. I'm not saying the downside doesn't have merit, but what's behind it other than you feel that way?

 
Disagree completely. He has much better big play capabilities than Moreno and the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. He also gets to play the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos 6 times. I see him easily surpassing 1000 yards rushing and possibly exceeding 1200-1300 yards. He's easily my pick for ROY in non-PPR formats.

 
Chaka said:
I don't like the Moreno comparison as Knowshon got hurt in preseason and missed a lot of important practice time so he started behind the curve.I am not sure if Matthews will be a top RB this year or not but of all the rookie RBs he is clearly in the best position to succeed.I will be higher on him if SD finally signs Marcus McNeil. My goodness AJ pay the man you cheap #######!
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I'm not saying Mathews = Moreno. I'm saying he will put up similar #'s that Moreno put up last year. 900ish yds and 7 TDs is what Moreno did. I see the same for Mathews.
 
He's going off the board as RB11 in redrafts right now, that means someone is likely rolling with him as their RB1. While I think it's likely he has a good year, I agree, I think that's far too risky to roll with a rookie with a bad offensive line and Sproles still there.

 
Jason Wood said:
What's the reason for your contrarian view Gianmarco? I think the reason the bullish view is the consensus one is because there's a lot to back up the optimism, not the least of which the head coach (noted for a good running attack) has come out and put out very specific expectations for the rookie. Combine that with the fact he was a first rounder, on a team without competition for carries (Turner has already said Sproles is there to to what he did last year...play great special teams and catch passes) and a comfort level that it's hardly unusual for rookie RBs to be fantasy stars, and I think it's easy to project the upside. I'm not saying the downside doesn't have merit, but what's behind it other than you feel that way?
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The reason is this:

SD ranked 31st in the league last year in rushing and was dead last in YPC at 3.3 yards per carry. That's not good. In fact, I think it's amazing and it's something that's being overlooked. No team ran worse as a team in terms of gaining yards per carry in the entire NFL. I know LT isn't what he used to be, but Sproles also struggled. I know there were injuries, missing players, etc. from the line, but I don't see them improving that dramatically when it hasn't been addressed substantially as far as I know. Was last year a fluke? Well, not really, since in 2008 they were also pretty bad, ranking 20th in the NFL and only managing 4.1 ypc.

So, now we have a rookie coming in, no major changes to the line, and a coach who has said he'll get about 250 carries. Well, unless he cracks that 4.0 ypc mark, that doesn't = 1000 yds. Is it possible he goes over 250 carries? Of course it is, but I don't see that happening. Is it possible he cracks 4.0 ypc? Definitely, but it's going to be close. I can see him being somewhere in the 3.8-4.2 range. Either way it's going to be pretty close to 1000 yds and that's if things go well. If he misses a game or two, reports late to camp, doesn't pick up pass protection well, or any other number of things, and his margin for error to hit that 1000 yd mark now gets even smaller.

Not many rookies come in and perform at a high level, especially when the burden is placed directly on them unless they have a good O-line to run behind. LT didn't when he came in. Lynch didn't. There just seems to be this assumption that SD is so good and it's going to be automatic for him. I don't see it working out that way.

Again, this is for 2010. And I think he'll improve as the year goes on as well. But there's going to be some growing pains and that doesn't seem to be considered by the vast majority of people. The vast majority sees SD = good offense = only RB = top 10 RB. That equation doesn't seem right to me.

 
gianmarco said:
Chaka said:
I don't like the Moreno comparison as Knowshon got hurt in preseason and missed a lot of important practice time so he started behind the curve.I am not sure if Matthews will be a top RB this year or not but of all the rookie RBs he is clearly in the best position to succeed.I will be higher on him if SD finally signs Marcus McNeil. My goodness AJ pay the man you cheap #######!
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I'm not saying Mathews = Moreno. I'm saying he will put up similar #'s that Moreno put up last year. 900ish yds and 7 TDs is what Moreno did. I see the same for Mathews.
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Are you saying Moreno is more talented than Matthews? He may be. But I think if Matthews signs on time and remains healthy in camp he will start faster and, by extension, finish better overall than Moreno. I'm not big on predictions though but I wouldn't be shocked by 1,100 total yards and maybe 8 or 9 TDs (which are always very difficult to predict).However it's all about the upside and I think Matthew's situation is better than any rookie RB so I like his chances to exceed expectations.
 
Buckna said:
He's going off the board as RB11 in redrafts right now, that means someone is likely rolling with him as their RB1. While I think it's likely he has a good year, I agree, I think that's far too risky to roll with a rookie with a bad offensive line and Sproles still there.
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Exactly. I think he's being overrated from a REDRAFT standpoint because he's being viewed as a RB1 or lock for top 10 RB simply because of opportunity. This is why I've emphasized this is for 2010, not for beyond or dynasty.
 
Chaka said:
gianmarco said:
Chaka said:
I don't like the Moreno comparison as Knowshon got hurt in preseason and missed a lot of important practice time so he started behind the curve.I am not sure if Matthews will be a top RB this year or not but of all the rookie RBs he is clearly in the best position to succeed.I will be higher on him if SD finally signs Marcus McNeil. My goodness AJ pay the man you cheap #######!
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I'm not saying Mathews = Moreno. I'm saying he will put up similar #'s that Moreno put up last year. 900ish yds and 7 TDs is what Moreno did. I see the same for Mathews.
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Are you saying Moreno is more talented than Matthews? He may be. But I think if Matthews signs on time and remains healthy in camp he will start faster and, by extension, finish better overall than Moreno. I'm not big on predictions though but I wouldn't be shocked by 1,100 total yards and maybe 8 or 9 TDs (which are always very difficult to predict).However it's all about the upside and I think Matthew's situation is better than any rookie RB so I like his chances to exceed expectations.
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Not at all. I'm not a fan of Moreno's talent at all. I think Mathews is more talented for sure. I also disagree that his situation is better than any rookie RB. I don't view it nearly as optimal as many others mostly due to the O-line and their recent (last 2-3 years) rushing difficulties. They've scored TDs but haven't been very productive otherwise.
 
Buckna said:
He's going off the board as RB11 in redrafts right now, that means someone is likely rolling with him as their RB1. While I think it's likely he has a good year, I agree, I think that's far too risky to roll with a rookie with a bad offensive line and Sproles still there.
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Sproles was not good as a runner last year, and I think the Chargers realized that he is best suited as a change of pace back who does his damage running the ball on passing downs. And poor offensive lines do not mean that a player will not be solid for fantasy purposes. Players like Frank Gore, Ladanian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, And Matt Forte have all been fantasy relevent playing behind poor offensive lines. And lets looks at recent rookies who have had stellar fantasy seasons playing behind what many would consider poor offensive lines:Steve SlatonMatt ForteKevin SmithMathews has elite talent couple with a solid opportunity.
 
gianmarco said:
Jason Wood said:
What's the reason for your contrarian view Gianmarco? I think the reason the bullish view is the consensus one is because there's a lot to back up the optimism, not the least of which the head coach (noted for a good running attack) has come out and put out very specific expectations for the rookie. Combine that with the fact he was a first rounder, on a team without competition for carries (Turner has already said Sproles is there to to what he did last year...play great special teams and catch passes) and a comfort level that it's hardly unusual for rookie RBs to be fantasy stars, and I think it's easy to project the upside. I'm not saying the downside doesn't have merit, but what's behind it other than you feel that way?
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The reason is this:

SD ranked 31st in the league last year in rushing and was dead last in YPC at 3.3 yards per carry. That's not good. In fact, I think it's amazing and it's something that's being overlooked. No team ran worse as a team in terms of gaining yards per carry in the entire NFL. I know LT isn't what he used to be, but Sproles also struggled. I know there were injuries, missing players, etc. from the line, but I don't see them improving that dramatically when it hasn't been addressed substantially as far as I know. Was last year a fluke? Well, not really, since in 2008 they were also pretty bad, ranking 20th in the NFL and only managing 4.1 ypc.

So, now we have a rookie coming in, no major changes to the line, and a coach who has said he'll get about 250 carries. Well, unless he cracks that 4.0 ypc mark, that doesn't = 1000 yds. Is it possible he goes over 250 carries? Of course it is, but I don't see that happening. Is it possible he cracks 4.0 ypc? Definitely, but it's going to be close. I can see him being somewhere in the 3.8-4.2 range. Either way it's going to be pretty close to 1000 yds and that's if things go well. If he misses a game or two, reports late to camp, doesn't pick up pass protection well, or any other number of things, and his margin for error to hit that 1000 yd mark now gets even smaller.

Not many rookies come in and perform at a high level, especially when the burden is placed directly on them unless they have a good O-line to run behind. LT didn't when he came in. Lynch didn't. There just seems to be this assumption that SD is so good and it's going to be automatic for him. I don't see it working out that way.

Again, this is for 2010. And I think he'll improve as the year goes on as well. But there's going to be some growing pains and that doesn't seem to be considered by the vast majority of people. The vast majority sees SD = good offense = only RB = top 10 RB. That equation doesn't seem right to me.
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:goodposting: Now that's a good conversation starter beyond the "I don't think he'll meet expectations."

It's certainly a concern, particularly with McNeill potentially holding out, as well. If Marcus doesn't get into camp, I will have no choice but to reduce my expectations for Mathews, as a result.

 
gianmarco said:
Chaka said:
gianmarco said:
Chaka said:
I don't like the Moreno comparison as Knowshon got hurt in preseason and missed a lot of important practice time so he started behind the curve.I am not sure if Matthews will be a top RB this year or not but of all the rookie RBs he is clearly in the best position to succeed.I will be higher on him if SD finally signs Marcus McNeil. My goodness AJ pay the man you cheap #######!
Click to expand...
I'm not saying Mathews = Moreno. I'm saying he will put up similar #'s that Moreno put up last year. 900ish yds and 7 TDs is what Moreno did. I see the same for Mathews.
Click to expand...
Are you saying Moreno is more talented than Matthews? He may be. But I think if Matthews signs on time and remains healthy in camp he will start faster and, by extension, finish better overall than Moreno. I'm not big on predictions though but I wouldn't be shocked by 1,100 total yards and maybe 8 or 9 TDs (which are always very difficult to predict).However it's all about the upside and I think Matthew's situation is better than any rookie RB so I like his chances to exceed expectations.
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Not at all. I'm not a fan of Moreno's talent at all. I think Mathews is more talented for sure. I also disagree that his situation is better than any rookie RB. I don't view it nearly as optimal as many others mostly due to the O-line and their recent (last 2-3 years) rushing difficulties. They've scored TDs but haven't been very productive otherwise.
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A lot of this depends on the presence of McNeil but which RB is in a better situation? Spiller? Best? Gerhart, McCluster, McKnight, Dwyer, Tate, Hardesty?Of those listed Best is in the best situation for opportunity but you can't tell me his team or line are better than what is going on in SD, or that he will get more opportunity than Matthews. Matthews also has the luxury of playing in the AFC West compared to Best in the NFC Central.Maybe Tate, if he shows something in camp, could be a big surprise.The deepest sleeper for me is probably Dwyer but that will require Mendenhall to fall flat on his face.Matthews and Best are the most likely to succeed and I think that Matthews is on the team that will have more scoring opportunities so I would lean towards him.However neither of them should be drafted as RB #1s on your fantasy team.
 
Balco said:
Buckna said:
He's going off the board as RB11 in redrafts right now, that means someone is likely rolling with him as their RB1. While I think it's likely he has a good year, I agree, I think that's far too risky to roll with a rookie with a bad offensive line and Sproles still there.
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Sproles was not good as a runner last year, and I think the Chargers realized that he is best suited as a change of pace back who does his damage running the ball on passing downs. And poor offensive lines do not mean that a player will not be solid for fantasy purposes. Players like Frank Gore, Ladanian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, And Matt Forte have all been fantasy relevent playing behind poor offensive lines. And lets looks at recent rookies who have had stellar fantasy seasons playing behind what many would consider poor offensive lines:Steve SlatonMatt ForteKevin SmithMathews has elite talent couple with a solid opportunity.
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Would you have drafted any of those 3 rookies as your RB1 when they came out? If he's going RB11 right now as an average, that means some people are taking him even earlier than that. Would you take a rookie RB in the 1st round of a redraft? Some people are, but I won't.I'm not saying he won't have a good year, I'm saying that the cost of drafting him leaves you little margin for error if he doesn't.
 
The reason their rushing average has sucked since 2008 is because LT has been washed up for two years. Hence why the Chargers finally cut bait and paid a king's ransom to move up and get Mathews.

The fact that one crappy player struggled in a particular situation doesn't in any way prove that the situation itself is toxic. Citing San Diego's recent struggles in the ground game is not a compelling argument for why Mathews will struggle because the players who failed to produce were incapable of succeeding.

It's sort of like saying Randy Moss couldn't succeed in New England because David Givens didn't. It's pretty easy to see the problem with this statement.

 
Buckna said:
Balco said:
Buckna said:
He's going off the board as RB11 in redrafts right now, that means someone is likely rolling with him as their RB1. While I think it's likely he has a good year, I agree, I think that's far too risky to roll with a rookie with a bad offensive line and Sproles still there.
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Sproles was not good as a runner last year, and I think the Chargers realized that he is best suited as a change of pace back who does his damage running the ball on passing downs. And poor offensive lines do not mean that a player will not be solid for fantasy purposes. Players like Frank Gore, Ladanian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, And Matt Forte have all been fantasy relevent playing behind poor offensive lines. And lets looks at recent rookies who have had stellar fantasy seasons playing behind what many would consider poor offensive lines:Steve SlatonMatt ForteKevin SmithMathews has elite talent couple with a solid opportunity.
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Would you have drafted any of those 3 rookies as your RB1 when they came out? If he's going RB11 right now as an average, that means some people are taking him even earlier than that. Would you take a rookie RB in the 1st round of a redraft? Some people are, but I won't.I'm not saying he won't have a good year, I'm saying that the cost of drafting him leaves you little margin for error if he doesn't.
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Absolutely not, and I can't think of anyone who did. They weren't as highly regarded as Mathews, nor did they have the talent of Mathews, IMO. Couldn't you say any running back you draft as rb # 1 will cost you if he doesn't work out for whatever reason?
 
Absolutely not, and I can't think of anyone who did. They weren't as highly regarded as Mathews, nor did they have the talent of Mathews, IMO. Couldn't you say any running back you draft as rb # 1 will cost you if he doesn't work out for whatever reason?

Yes, except most of the guys you draft as an RB1 HAVE PLAYED AN NFL SNAP.

ps: u can clearly see i dont know how the hell to quote.

 
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I agree in principle that Matthews is going way too early and is overhyped. In other drafts with better RB talent, I don't think he would have been a first round pick and could easily have been the 4th or 5th running back selected.

IMO, too many people are willing to give LT's prior production to Matthews, which is a pretty big leap of faith in my book. I would guess he will get 250-275 total touches if he can block, stay healthy, and not run out of gas as the season progresses.

Tomnlinson, by comparison, got 400 or so touches as a rookie . . . and ranked as the RB7. I can even remember the last time a rookie was a Top 12 fantasy pick at RB. Way too much risk taking him that early IMO.

 
EBF said:
The reason their rushing average has sucked since 2008 is because LT has been washed up for two years. Hence why the Chargers finally cut bait and paid a king's ransom to move up and get Mathews. The fact that one crappy player struggled in a particular situation doesn't in any way prove that the situation itself is toxic. Citing San Diego's recent struggles in the ground game is not a compelling argument for why Mathews will struggle because the players who failed to produce were incapable of succeeding. It's sort of like saying Randy Moss couldn't succeed in New England because David Givens didn't. It's pretty easy to see the problem with this statement.
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No doubt that LT was a shell of his HOF self. But I refuse to believe he was the 32nd best starting RB in the league. Couple that with how effective the passing game was and I think that offensive line is much worse than people think. And that's ignoring the while Mcneil situation.It's nothing like saying that about Moss.
 
i don't get why we need separate threads for why ryan matthews is good and why he isn't going to break 1,000 yards.

 
Balco said:
Buckna said:
He's going off the board as RB11 in redrafts right now, that means someone is likely rolling with him as their RB1. While I think it's likely he has a good year, I agree, I think that's far too risky to roll with a rookie with a bad offensive line and Sproles still there.
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Sproles was not good as a runner last year, and I think the Chargers realized that he is best suited as a change of pace back who does his damage running the ball on passing downs. And poor offensive lines do not mean that a player will not be solid for fantasy purposes. Players like Frank Gore, Ladanian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, And Matt Forte have all been fantasy relevent playing behind poor offensive lines. And lets looks at recent rookies who have had stellar fantasy seasons playing behind what many would consider poor offensive lines:Steve SlatonMatt ForteKevin SmithMathews has elite talent couple with a solid opportunity.
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I don't see him as talented as Gore, Jackson, or LT. Check Forte's rookie ypc.
 
EBF said:
The reason their rushing average has sucked since 2008 is because LT has been washed up for two years. Hence why the Chargers finally cut bait and paid a king's ransom to move up and get Mathews. The fact that one crappy player struggled in a particular situation doesn't in any way prove that the situation itself is toxic. Citing San Diego's recent struggles in the ground game is not a compelling argument for why Mathews will struggle because the players who failed to produce were incapable of succeeding. It's sort of like saying Randy Moss couldn't succeed in New England because David Givens didn't. It's pretty easy to see the problem with this statement.
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Except the other RBs in SD saw their production plummet as much as LT did. Bottom liune, the Chargers run blocking was horrible. Maybe guys will do better or stay healthier, but last year it wasn't pretty.As for your example, I think it's somewhat backwards. It would be more like replacing Randy Moss (LT) with David Givens (Matthews). At least as far as inserting a rookie that may need time to develop.I think Matthews will be a decent pro prospect, but I would not put him in an elite group of RBs or once in a generation uber talent. IIRC, he wasn't necessarily a first round pick that got a bandwagon going and ended up going earlier than he probably should have. That doesn't mean he got better, it only means the hype got bigger.
 
gianmarco said:
EBF said:
The reason their rushing average has sucked since 2008 is because LT has been washed up for two years. Hence why the Chargers finally cut bait and paid a king's ransom to move up and get Mathews. The fact that one crappy player struggled in a particular situation doesn't in any way prove that the situation itself is toxic. Citing San Diego's recent struggles in the ground game is not a compelling argument for why Mathews will struggle because the players who failed to produce were incapable of succeeding. It's sort of like saying Randy Moss couldn't succeed in New England because David Givens didn't. It's pretty easy to see the problem with this statement.
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No doubt that LT was a shell of his HOF self. But I refuse to believe he was the 32nd best starting RB in the league. Couple that with how effective the passing game was and I think that offensive line is much worse than people think. And that's ignoring the while Mcneil situation.It's nothing like saying that about Moss.
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LT was horrible last year. And it's not because of the line. he still showed great vision, but his body could not handle it. He would see the openings, but his cuts weren't sharp, and he lacked the acceleration he used to have.
 
Sign me up Gian, I've seen him as high as #6 on some boards...he really was not an overly talented guy in college and comes out of a draft class that isn't loaded at RB...Hardesty in the 2nd, lot of guys that went way too high. Not sure Spiller was worth the #9 pick or can ever live up to that status.

If he gets 275 carries he'll stumble for 1,000 yds but the OL in San Diego has taken a step back the past couple of years and I'm not sure any RB would explode behind it right now.

You take less threats out of the passing game too and San Diego's offense could easily be underwhelming for awhile this year, possibly all year.

 
gianmarco said:
EBF said:
The reason their rushing average has sucked since 2008 is because LT has been washed up for two years. Hence why the Chargers finally cut bait and paid a king's ransom to move up and get Mathews. The fact that one crappy player struggled in a particular situation doesn't in any way prove that the situation itself is toxic. Citing San Diego's recent struggles in the ground game is not a compelling argument for why Mathews will struggle because the players who failed to produce were incapable of succeeding. It's sort of like saying Randy Moss couldn't succeed in New England because David Givens didn't. It's pretty easy to see the problem with this statement.
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No doubt that LT was a shell of his HOF self. But I refuse to believe he was the 32nd best starting RB in the league. Couple that with how effective the passing game was and I think that offensive line is much worse than people think. And that's ignoring the while Mcneil situation.It's nothing like saying that about Moss.
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LT was a great player once upon a time, but he has no business starting in the NFL now (hence why he will be a backup this season). Whether or not you "refuse to believe it" is up to you, but I would definitely rank him bottom five of all NFL starters in 2009. He was terrible last year. No burst. No power. Only scraping by on savvy and determination. Emmitt on the Cardinals.Teams with terrible starting RBs don't generally have impressive rushing stats. Really simple to understand.
 
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
he really was not an overly talented guy in college
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- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds. - Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.Not overly talented though. :lmao:
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Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college. If you like him that's fine but I don't find him special.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
he really was not an overly talented guy in college
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- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds.

- Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Not overly talented though.

:lmao:
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Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college. If you like him that's fine but I don't find him special.
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It's utterly absurd to say that someone who led the entire NCAA in rushing yards per game was "not an overly talented guy in college." Completely ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality. Whether or not you think Mathews is a legit pro prospect, there's no disputing that he was a complete beast last year.
 
I'm on board with gianmarco here. At this price you're banking your season on a guy who has never even played a down in the NFL, playing on a passing offense that ranked #31 in YPC last year. Fantasy suicide.

 
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
he really was not an overly talented guy in college
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- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds.

- Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Not overly talented though.

:goodposting:
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Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college. If you like him that's fine but I don't find him special.
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It's utterly absurd to say that someone who led the entire NCAA in rushing yards per game was "not an overly talented guy in college." Completely ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality. Whether or not you think Mathews is a legit pro prospect, there's no disputing that he was a complete beast last year.
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His schedule started off with UC Davis EBF, give me a break. Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah St, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Hawaii...he wasn't exactly tearing up SEC teams on a weekly basis. It's equally absurd that you dismiss this as a reasonable explanation for why I feel like I do. he had 107 against Wisconsin, and a 3.8 ypc avg against Cincinnati which wasn't a great defense. Was his 234 and 3 Tds against Boise St impressive? Perhaps but they lost 51-34...Boise St was up 24-3 mid way thru the 2nd, they probably were thinking pass at that point. mathews ripped off a couple nice 60 yd scampers to get it close at the half. Boise St kept him in check the rest of the way till he busted another 60 yd score...if you want to use that as the basis for why he will rock this year be my guest. We can disagree on his projections for this year but I think you are going about this wrong.

 
Jason Wood said:
It's certainly a concern, particularly with McNeill potentially holding out, as well. If Marcus doesn't get into camp, I will have no choice but to reduce my expectations for Mathews, as a result.
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It's hard to know how McNeill's absence would affect Mathews.Of the five starting offensive linemen for the Chargers last season, McNeill was the weakest link in the running game. Either Brandyn Dombrowski or Tra Thomas would start in his place. Dombrowski is pretty limited as a pass-blocker, but he is a better run-blocker than McNeill has been over the past three seasons. (It's not that McNeill can't run-block: he was outstanding in 2006. He just hasn't been any good since then.)

On the other hand, McNeill is a much better pass-blocker than Dombrowski, and almost certainly a better LT overall. Would Dombrowki's limitations as a pass-blocker hurt Mathews more than McNeill's limitations as a run-blocker? I think it's hard to say.

As for Tra Thomas, his age leads me to question whether he can hold up over the course of a full season. But as long as he can stay healthy, I don't think there's much of a drop-off between how McNeill has played the past few years and how Thomas has played the past few years (although Thomas's snaps have been much more limited — in 2007 because of injury, and in 2009 because he was a backup).

FWIW, like gianmarco, I'm not convinced that Mathews is a favorite to break 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie (actually, I think 1,000 yards is a pretty good over/under for him), and at his current ADP, I won't be drafting him in any redraft leagues.

 
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Since you took Spiller over Mathews at 1.02, do you see Buffalo giving Spiller most of the carries over Jackson and Lynch before SD improves their OL? Or maybe it turns out that their OL isn't that bad because LT2 was that bad.

 
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I do agree with EBF that Mathews showed extreme talent in college.

My relative pessimism is based on the Chargers' poor run-blocking; on a low projected run-pass ratio (it's Rivers's team now); and on Sproles stealing some touches as the third-down RB. (Tolbert may get more touches this season as well.)

 
How do people see the carries being broken down for the SD backfield? And even more generally, the entire offense?

As long as Mathews signs his contract on time and stays healthy throughout training camp, he should be getting 270 carries at least imo. Historically, SD has had at least 420 carries. I don't see Sproles + others taking more than 150 carries. SD payed big time to move up and I see that as an indication of how they will use Mathews this year.

Also, SD has historically had a lot of rushing TDs and I can't see Mathews not being the goal line rb. LT's lowest td total in his nine years as a Charger was 10 in his rookie year.

I know SD's offensive line is in shambles right now, but they play in the easiest division in the nfl and have an easy schedule in general. Other than SF, I don't anticipate any difficult match ups.

IMO, Mathews has the least downside after the big 4, Gore, and Michael Turner purely on opportunity. In this case, talent and opportunity make up for his inexperience. He is my RB7 in both PPR and non-PPR.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
FWIW, like gianmarco, I'm not convinced that Mathews is a favorite to break 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie (actually, I think 1,000 yards is a pretty good over/under for him), and at his current ADP, I won't be drafting him in any redraft leagues.
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Would you draft him 1.01 in a Dynasty Rookie Draft?
 
Ministry of Pain said:
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
he really was not an overly talented guy in college
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- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds. - Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.Not overly talented though. :no:
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Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college.
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Wait, is this a joke? :no: I agree, level of competition and conference is definitely a huge measure of success at the next level. :no: I mean, look at all these running backs who played in Big conferences:Chris Johnson, East Carolina (Conference USA)Ladanian Tomlinson, TCU (MWC)Deangelo Williams, Memphis (Conferene USA)Michael Turner, NIU (MAC)Brian Westbrook, Villanova (1-AA)Fred Jackson, Coe CollegeBrandon Jacobs, Southern Illinois
 
Ministry of Pain said:
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
he really was not an overly talented guy in college
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- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds.

- Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Not overly talented though.

:no:
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Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college. If you like him that's fine but I don't find him special.
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It's utterly absurd to say that someone who led the entire NCAA in rushing yards per game was "not an overly talented guy in college." Completely ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality. Whether or not you think Mathews is a legit pro prospect, there's no disputing that he was a complete beast last year.
Click to expand...
His schedule started off with UC Davis EBF, give me a break. Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah St, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Hawaii...he wasn't exactly tearing up SEC teams on a weekly basis. It's equally absurd that you dismiss this as a reasonable explanation for why I feel like I do. he had 107 against Wisconsin, and a 3.8 ypc avg against Cincinnati which wasn't a great defense. Was his 234 and 3 Tds against Boise St impressive? Perhaps but they lost 51-34...Boise St was up 24-3 mid way thru the 2nd, they probably were thinking pass at that point. mathews ripped off a couple nice 60 yd scampers to get it close at the half. Boise St kept him in check the rest of the way till he busted another 60 yd score...if you want to use that as the basis for why he will rock this year be my guest. We can disagree on his projections for this year but I think you are going about this wrong.
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Whoa. He is serious.So you evaluate a player on his level of competition? Do you watch them play?

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I do agree with EBF that Mathews showed extreme talent in college.My relative pessimism is based on the Chargers' poor run-blocking; on a low projected run-pass ratio (it's Rivers's team now); and on Sproles stealing some touches as the third-down RB. (Tolbert may get more touches this season as well.)
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Against what teams? Who was drafted from the front 7 on the Boise State defense this past draft? The rest of that schedule where he started creaming defenses is sketchy at best. I'm not trying to say the guy will be a total flop, but my reasoning is somewhat based in the talent level he played against. I understand it's a team game, I understand that's where he enrolled in school but it takes a super special player to come out of non major conferences and excel in the NFL...LT and Chris Johnson come to mind and I don't see Ryan Mathews in that class right now. Maybe my opinion will change and of he explodes out of the box this year, please rub it in my face EBF...just tend to think guys got a little over excited about him. And just for the record I was high on him last Feb/Mar...then I went back and watched more of him, started combing thru the quality of these teams he faced, he has a lot to prove. And also I want to post that I have no ill will for the guy either. If he turns out a stud, great, another RB we can look forward to grabbing in the 1st round. I just have some reservations right now and I think they are legitimate.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
I think you are going about this wrong.
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Likewise. I don't find your analysis compelling. Yea, he played crap teams, but so did every other RB in the conference and none of them averaged 150 yards per game. It's not his fault that his schedule didn't include more defenses that were MoP-approved.For me it's not that big of a deal. He dominated his competition and that's the best you can really hope for from any prospect. Besides, an overwhelming majority of college players will never sniff the NFL. That holds true for both the SEC and the Mountain West. I don't think the difference in the average talent level of the average players in those conferences is huge. I think Mathews is as close to a no-brainer lock for instant success as any offensive rookie in this class:- He plays a simple position that has almost no learning curve. - He was a top 15 draft pick. - The team that selected him paid a big price to get him.- He has combine numbers that are consistent with other elite, first round type RB prospects.- He dominated in college.- He passes the eyeball test on the field. There's not much to nitpick with him. I think he'll be effective right away and I think the people who are down on him are underestimating his talent and/or exaggerating the difficulty of the obstacles in his path to success.Talent + touches = success. I believe Mathews has talent and I believe he'll get touches, so projecting a successful rookie year is a no-brainer for me. I'm actually a lot more worried about his durability than his situation/talent. I think his propensity to seek contact and his inability to stay healthy in college are far more concerning than any of the fluff mentioned in this thread.
 
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