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Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Tom Brady Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :lmao: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Annual Tom Brady FBG scoring QB ranking:

01 - 2843 yds 18 TDs and 12 ints QB 19

02 - 3764 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 7

03 - 3620 yds 23 TDs and 12 ints QB 10

04 - 3692 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 11

05 - 4110 yds 26 TDs and 14 ints QB 2

06 - 3529 yds 24 TDs and 12 ints QB 7

07 - 4806 yds 50 TDs and 8 ints QB 1

08 - 76 yds 0 TDs and 0 ints QB 60

09 - 4398 yds 28 TDs and 13 ints QB 8

Outside of two seasons when he ranked #1 and #2, he has mostly come in around QB 10. This upcoming season, we know that Welker could be limited or even miss significant time and Randy Moss is 33 years old. They have many new pieces, at WR and at TE and play in an improved division and yet he still has a current ADP of QB 4 and 29 overall. I don't see the upside with going Tom Brady early. I see some decline in the passing numbers overall for Brady and the Patriots.

Tom Brady 16 gms 330 comp of 530 attempts 3976 yds 7.5 ypa 25 TDs and 12 ints 20 rushes 40 yds & 1 TD

 
I got a kick last year when people were saying 32 TDs were Brady's floor. I expect this year will be slightly worse than last, 3600 yards, 26 TDs.

 
I don't think he's looked the same since his injury. That's partly due to the fact his offensive line has been hurt, his Wr's haven't played to their best and his confidence isn't the same as it was when he threw for 50 Td's. Throw in the fact that they'll play the Jets twice this year, two games I don't want to start any of my Qb's against if I don't have to, he'll struggle to throw 30 td's again this year.

4200 yards, 28 td's, 15 int's

80 yards rushing, 0 td's

 
Annual Tom Brady FBG scoring QB ranking:01 - 2843 yds 18 TDs and 12 ints QB 1902 - 3764 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 703 - 3620 yds 23 TDs and 12 ints QB 1004 - 3692 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 1105 - 4110 yds 26 TDs and 14 ints QB 206 - 3529 yds 24 TDs and 12 ints QB 707 - 4806 yds 50 TDs and 8 ints QB 108 - 76 yds 0 TDs and 0 ints QB 6009 - 4398 yds 28 TDs and 13 ints QB 8Outside of two seasons when he ranked #1 and #2, he has mostly come in around QB 10. This upcoming season, we know that Welker could be limited or even miss significant time and Randy Moss is 33 years old. They have many new pieces, at WR and at TE and play in an improved division and yet he still has a current ADP of QB 4 and 29 overall. I don't see the upside with going Tom Brady early. I see some decline in the passing numbers overall for Brady and the Patriots.Tom Brady 16 gms 330 comp of 530 attempts 3976 yds 7.5 ypa 25 TDs and 12 ints 20 rushes 40 yds & 1 TD
4500 yds, 34 td, 10 intWhy?1) Welker ahead of schedule2) Holt an upgrade over last year in this role3) Another year removed from the injury/surgery4) Full offseason, back to normal routine
 
Blackjacks said:
3745

24

13
you expect him to be on par with his worst seasons? He is in his prime on a super bowl potential team that relies on the pass . These numbers are his floor.
I think they are the third best team in their own division
So nice, you had to say it thrice :( . I have no problem with your statement...I can see them being 3rd in the division and finishing 9-7. I also see no issue with the 24/13 projections. They are certainly not the team they were throughout their SB runs. I don't like the cloudiness around Welker's injury (I still don't understand if it is a simple ACL injury why he can't start the season) and if Moss declines (it is an "if", but nonetheless), I think he would struggle to get even 24 TDs.
 
you expect him to be on par with his worst seasons? He is in his prime on a super bowl potential team that relies on the pass . These numbers are his floor.
NE is not a SB contender IMO. They have no DEF.
If they have no defense, then how did they rank 5th in fewest points allowed and 11th in fewest yards allowed? They gave up fewer points than the following playoff teams: CIN, IND, GB, MIN, SD, ARI, PHI, and NO.I'm not saying they are a great defense, but who did they lose this offseason that contributed much at all to the defense last year? The defensive nucleus is younger, faster, and starting to get more experience. I'm not sure why they suddenly fall flat on their faces this time around.As for the Pats SB chances, I view them as a playoff team with only a moderate chance of advancing very far until they can start beating top tier teams. They can beat up on bad teams and beat some good teams, but they have struggled of late to beat the better teams.
 
you expect him to be on par with his worst seasons? He is in his prime on a super bowl potential team that relies on the pass . These numbers are his floor.
NE is not a SB contender IMO. They have no DEF.
If they have no defense, then how did they rank 5th in fewest points allowed and 11th in fewest yards allowed? They gave up fewer points than the following playoff teams: CIN, IND, GB, MIN, SD, ARI, PHI, and NO.I'm not saying they are a great defense, but who did they lose this offseason that contributed much at all to the defense last year? The defensive nucleus is younger, faster, and starting to get more experience. I'm not sure why they suddenly fall flat on their faces this time around.As for the Pats SB chances, I view them as a playoff team with only a moderate chance of advancing very far until they can start beating top tier teams. They can beat up on bad teams and beat some good teams, but they have struggled of late to beat the better teams.
My Super Bowl comment is based on vegas odds. These guys are usually right and they have the Pats at 10-1. Only 3 other teams have better odds.FYI: The Jets are 20-1. Funny that people think a 2nd year QB has a better shot at leading his team to the SB than a 3 time-winning QB/Coach combo. Actually it's shocking.
 
you expect him to be on par with his worst seasons? He is in his prime on a super bowl potential team that relies on the pass . These numbers are his floor.
NE is not a SB contender IMO. They have no DEF.
If they have no defense, then how did they rank 5th in fewest points allowed and 11th in fewest yards allowed? They gave up fewer points than the following playoff teams: CIN, IND, GB, MIN, SD, ARI, PHI, and NO.I'm not saying they are a great defense, but who did they lose this offseason that contributed much at all to the defense last year? The defensive nucleus is younger, faster, and starting to get more experience. I'm not sure why they suddenly fall flat on their faces this time around.As for the Pats SB chances, I view them as a playoff team with only a moderate chance of advancing very far until they can start beating top tier teams. They can beat up on bad teams and beat some good teams, but they have struggled of late to beat the better teams.
My Super Bowl comment is based on vegas odds. These guys are usually right and they have the Pats at 10-1. Only 3 other teams have better odds.FYI: The Jets are 20-1. Funny that people think a 2nd year QB has a better shot at leading his team to the SB than a 3 time-winning QB/Coach combo. Actually it's shocking.
10-1 is twice as likely to win as 20-1. Not sure how you are seeing this (in terms of these odds) that the Jets are more likely to win.
 
^^^^to Yudkin

I don't think the Jets are more likey to win the SB (interms of odds or opinion). I was referring to some of the posters around this board who think that the Pats are the 3rd best team in their own division (see above).

I was the poster above that stated the Pats are a SB contender this year. Yes, 10-1 is better odds than 20-1. :lmao:

 
I would be interested to hear more from anyone thinking that Brady will produce less than 4000/25 or more than 4500/30.

 
I would be interested to hear more from anyone thinking that Brady will produce less than 4000/25 or more than 4500/30.
He had 4400 and 28 last year, in year one coming back from injury, without Holt and with an inexperienced Edelman for a significant amount of time. Others have commented on Oline issues last year. Another year has gone by and some housecleaning has taken place to re-establish some lockerroom leadership pockets associated with the exodus of many key vets. BB has had some time to analyze the pass defense schemes of the Jets and the Fish and I'm sure the O is relishing the chance to line up against Revis, who basically "won" the matchups last year.I'm not calling for 4800 and 36, but given the above I think its reasonable to see upside above 4500/30. I'd probably go 4200/28 but with a bias towards upside relative to that.
 
Holt may change nothing (like getting cut which I doubt) but it wouldn't take much, like anything, to contribute more than Galloway. Hernandez is a Mackey Award winner, Gronk and Price have talent, Edelman one year later, Tate could factor, Welker on pace... sure there are definite question marks but I like the situation a lot more than last year. I predict high numbers, own him in all 3 meaningful leagues.

 
No, no, no... Brady will sling it this year. 32 is the floor again.
Please explain your opinion on how 32 passing TDs is the floor for Tom Brady.
See 2 posts above... i believe they will throw it and throw it a lot. The D should be better than last year, more options (esp when Welker is back), and decent but not spectacular Rb corp. Last year 28 and 4300, this year 32 is a safe bet imo. 2 a game average... and I think they should get to that with relative ease.
 
No, no, no... Brady will sling it this year. 32 is the floor again.
Please explain your opinion on how 32 passing TDs is the floor for Tom Brady.
See 2 posts above... i believe they will throw it and throw it a lot. The D should be better than last year, more options (esp when Welker is back), and decent but not spectacular Rb corp. Last year 28 and 4300, this year 32 is a safe bet imo. 2 a game average... and I think they should get to that with relative ease.
Brady over the past decade01 - 2843 yds 18 TDs and 12 ints QB 19

02 - 3764 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 7

03 - 3620 yds 23 TDs and 12 ints QB 10

04 - 3692 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 11

05 - 4110 yds 26 TDs and 14 ints QB 2

06 - 3529 yds 24 TDs and 12 ints QB 7

07 - 4806 yds 50 TDs and 8 ints QB 1

08 - 76 yds 0 TDs and 0 ints QB 60

09 - 4398 yds 28 TDs and 13 ints QB 8

Only one year with greater than 28 TDs seems to conflict with the assessment that 32 TDs is the floor.

 
How about 18 more than 28, that's an impressive "one year...." Yes, it's a prognostication, a divination if you wish. That one standout year was the first with top level wr's, last year was coming off a serious knee injury and, as I've said, NE had a weaker D, etc. This year looks better to me, I'm going outside the numbers as you interpret them. IF Randy Moss tanks it (which I doubt in a contract year), Price is useless, Tate doesn't contribute, Edelman gets injured, Welker a shadow of himself, Hernandez and Gronk can't learn the playbook... then I will adjust my numbers. Until then Brady is championship. The over/under is 40.

 
you expect him to be on par with his worst seasons? He is in his prime on a super bowl potential team that relies on the pass . These numbers are his floor.
NE is not a SB contender IMO. They have no DEF.
which means they will probably need to pass more often than they would otherwise.
That argument is solid in almost every case except NE. They always have and will continue to launch it no matter the score. As for my prediction:4100 / 33 td's /12 int's.His draft position may drop a bit this year and if so he'll go a long way to winning your league. Very comparable numbers to the guys going in the first and second round.
 
Potentially not having Welker will hurt Brady's numbers. It seemed as if NE was much more balanced on offense, and I can see that again. Still a solid option at QB.

4000 yds passing, 29 TDs, 12 Int

75 yds rushing, 1 TD

 
(Rotoworld) According to Yahoo's Michael Silver, there is a "growing disconnect" between the Patriots' organization and Tom Brady.

Analysis: Silver reports that the sides have had "no substantial talks" about an extension as Brady enters a contract year. Brady reportedly feels the Pats aren't "displaying much urgency." He reported to OTAs on Tuesday, but has still missed the majority of offseason workouts. Silver does expect the sides to ultimately reach an agreement, though it might be the 2011 franchise tag.

 
Contract year. :popcorn:
:goodposting: But, even so, I don't think Brady would not perform to some of his high expectations if it weren't a contract year (its just some extra motivation). 4600 yds passing, 30 TDs, 10 Ints, 50 yds running, 1 running TD.Welker at OTA's looking close to normal, a contract year for Moss (who I believe, for some reason, wants to stay in NE) and has been reported to look amazing at OTA's, TE rookies Aaron Hernandez and Gronkoski give them the ability to have more viable offensive sets (if those two perform as expected).
 
No, no, no... Brady will sling it this year. 32 is the floor again.
Please explain your opinion on how 32 passing TDs is the floor for Tom Brady.
See 2 posts above... i believe they will throw it and throw it a lot. The D should be better than last year, more options (esp when Welker is back), and decent but not spectacular Rb corp. Last year 28 and 4300, this year 32 is a safe bet imo. 2 a game average... and I think they should get to that with relative ease.
Brady over the past decade01 - 2843 yds 18 TDs and 12 ints QB 19

02 - 3764 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 7

03 - 3620 yds 23 TDs and 12 ints QB 10

04 - 3692 yds 28 TDs and 14 ints QB 11

05 - 4110 yds 26 TDs and 14 ints QB 2

06 - 3529 yds 24 TDs and 12 ints QB 7

07 - 4806 yds 50 TDs and 8 ints QB 1

08 - 76 yds 0 TDs and 0 ints QB 60

09 - 4398 yds 28 TDs and 13 ints QB 8

Only one year with greater than 28 TDs seems to conflict with the assessment that 32 TDs is the floor.
I think the Randy Moss factor has to apply when talking about Brady's year-by-year TD numbers. 2007 was a once in a lifetime year so no point in thinking he does that again. But last year seems like the most reasonable starting point for a discussion on Brady's numbers because he played with Moss and put up numbers that could easily be repeated. The thing I see from last year is that Brady was a year removed from a serious knee injury and I did not think he looked comfortable all year and didn't have the mobility he had in previous years. Still, he put up solid numbers. I think a small improvement over last year is very reasonable. 375 completions

580 attempts

4450 yards

30 TDs

12 INTs

 
Welker at OTA's looking close to normal.
The video on this is somewhat misleading. Yes, it was a great thing that Welker was already at practice and participating. But from those that were there, he was running at 3/4 speed, rounded off corners instead of running crisp routes, and he only participated in warmups and line drills. So he missed the team based activities, 7-on-7, and anything that really involved the running of offensive plays or actual football. Of course, there's been no contact drills at this point, and he clearly would not have been involved had there been any. Bottom line, he was involved in the first part at practice and then went back to the locker room once the rest of the team started their regular practice. A huge accomplishment to be sure, but "looking close to normal" would be a bit of a stretch.
 
The number one factor in rating Tom Brady should be, their offense is centered around the pass.They have a stable of role playing, mediocre running backs. They have yet to address the running back position, because what they have is sufficient for the small role the running game plays in the offense. This offense may be aging slightly, but the talent and role players are still there. Brady knows how to win, and how to find the open WR. Moss may be getting old, however, I will take one of the best WR's in NFL history any day. He is not hurt, and he can still beat any single coverage in the league... period. Welker may not be 100% yet, or maybe even ever again. However, he is still 100 reception guy, he just might not have the 2nd gear to get him the YAC anymore. Edelman may be young, and still a little raw, but this guy stepped in last year and proved he fits the system. Give him another full off-season learning the playbook, and watch out. Torry Holt has brought in, and although he is a little more past his prime then even Moss is, he can be a valid role player for this team if healthy. They also have a full stable of role players built for this system, like Aiken, Tate, Price and they brought back Patten. The icing on the cake is the fresh, young, play-making TE's they drafted Gronkowski & Hernandez. Oh, they brought in Crumpler too.

That may have been a lengthy explanation, however, it leads to one simple point. I started with it and I will end with it. The Pats PASS THE BALL!! Let's look at the running back the other top QB's have: Manning-Addai-Brown, Rodgers-Grant-Starks, Brees-Thomas-Bush, Romo-Jones-Barber-Choice, Schaub-Slaton-Tate-Foster, Rivers-Mathews-Sproles. Then you look at the running back Brady has Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, BGE. They all serve a purpose, and Freddy T is an all time great. But realistically, you have a has been, a never was and some role players. They will continue to pass the ball, A LOT, because that's what they do.

Brady will be a top 5 QB, and if he and his WR's are healthy he could even be in the top 3. The Pats have always succeeded because of the system in place. The system has not gone anywhere, and their talent may be healthy this year. I see a bounce back year for Brady and this offense as a whole.

 
Rotoworld:

Tom Brady-QB-Patriots Jul. 3 - 9:17 am et

Tom Brady's personal coach, Tom Martinez, confirmed that the quarterback had a broken finger and three broken ribs last season.

These injuries finally came to light at the end of last year, but this is the first confirmation from someone outside of the media. Brady didn't even admit to the injuries after the season, not wanting to use it as an excuse for his down year. Now that those bones have healed and he's a full two years removed from the ACL tear, Brady should look much more like his old self in 2010.

Boston Globe

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patr...ch:on:twit:pats

 
Rotoworld:

Tom Brady-QB-Patriots Jul. 3 - 9:17 am et

Tom Brady's personal coach, Tom Martinez, confirmed that the quarterback had a broken finger and three broken ribs last season.

These injuries finally came to light at the end of last year, but this is the first confirmation from someone outside of the media. Brady didn't even admit to the injuries after the season, not wanting to use it as an excuse for his down year. Now that those bones have healed and he's a full two years removed from the ACL tear, Brady should look much more like his old self in 2010.

Boston Globe

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patr...ch:on:twit:pats
:excited: for that article! Really interesting read. Here is the link for the direct report, which there is a link to in the report posted above "Tom Brady still listens to QB whisperer".
 

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