1) Crabtree showed me a lot last year. You can't just look at stats especially because he missed preseason and didn't play the whole season. Despite that, he stepped in mid season and it was clear immediately that he was the best WR on the field for SF. That's amazing. We know that Crabtree is not going to bust--short of devastating injury. Bryant? He could bust. We don't know that he isn't the next Charles Rogers yet. Crabtree isn't. We also don't know where Bryant will stand in the team's target hierarchy. I am very confident that Crabtree will be the number one target on his team.
So, give me Crabtree over Bryant easy.
2) Holt may have finished in top four only once but he was almost always in the top 10. I loved to own Holt because I knew that I could count on him to perform as my WR1 with absolute confidence. Can you count on Austin or Bryant to do that? Based on what? 2/3 of one season production for the one and lots of hype and college games for the other. Those guys are not at all comparable to Holt yet. Not even close. What Holt brought was consistency. Holt was more talented than Roddy White and a different receiver, but in terms of fantasy production they are very similar. Austin and Bryant haven't proven that they will be top 10 producers year in and year out yet.
1) I get that there's a lot of reason to be high on Crabtree based on last season, which is why I focused mostly on Nicks. Still... Crabtree had a very good season
for a rookie. That's not the same thing as having a very good season. I think the odds are very high that Dez has a very good season
for a rookie, and where will that leave us a year from now? A bunch of people will be moving him up in their rankings to where he should have been in the first place because he did what we all expected him to do.2) By the time Holt had proven he was consistent, his fantasy career was half over. If you wait until a receiver is proven, you're going to miss out on half of his career production. In the end, I will bet every time that the most talented WRs will wind up being the most consistent WRs.
Granted yes, but these are dynasty projections, so you are obviously seeing something in Harvin I am not. I am looking to the future and I cant see anything at QB for the Vikes past this year. Eli will be there for years for he and Nicks to build a repore.
Eli Manning is hardly this glowing positive. Eli Manning is a middle-of-the-pack QB. Besides, Percy Harvin is not the type of WR that needs Brett Favre to produce. His value is in his ability to make things happen with the ball in his hands. He can carve out a successful fantasy career for himself living mostly on the short, quick stuff and the intermediate gains. He's essentially what Reggie Bush was supposed to be.
Yes, I'm well aware that there are only 6 top 6 WRs every year, and I'm also well aware that 10 is more than 6.
You keep coming back to PPG because it makes the numbers a little more appealing for you- do you at least acknowledge that most people do not rank guys soley based on PPG? I don't care if Wes Welker was 7th in PPG, or even 7th in points overall- the fact is, in standard scoring leagues, he's never been close to a top 6 dynasty WR. Same with Housh- I know I've never had him in my top 12, nevermind top 6, and I don't know anyone who had. Boldin and Fitz are probably the only teammates that can say that, and it didn't last very long.
I know a player doesn't need to finish top 6 every year to justify a top 6 ranking, and I also know that if someone does finish top 6 it doesn't necessarily mean they're a top 6 dynasty WR. It goes both ways. Welker and Housh were never top 6 dynasty WRs regardless if they may have finished close to there (even on a PPG basis).
We can argue this until the cows come home, but I'm not sure why you can't acknowledge that I may have a point. You don't think that having two elite WRs on the same roster may cannibalize their stats some after seeing the numbers I presented? You don't think there's anything to the fact that Bruce had by far his best year without Holt even though he played several more full seasons in his prime with Holt, that Marvin's 4 best seasons all came before Wayne was a factor, that Wayne's best season came when Marvin missed 11 games, or that Fitz scored the same amount of TDs in 4 games without Boldin as he did in 12 games with him in 2008? Do you think that AJ and Austin would have put up the same numbers if they had played together last season?
Semantics or not, there is a difference between having teammates ranked #7 and #10 vs. #4 and #6. I don't have an issue with the first ranking, but the second one is significantly more unlikely IMO, and yes, at least partly because they are teammates.
I keep coming back to PPG because the fact that Anquan Boldin was injury-prone is not the teensiest, tiniest bit relevant when projecting Dez Bryant. Anquan Boldin was a super-stud. If he could have stayed healthy, he would have put up several top 5 finishes. He couldn't. Should I now rank Bryant lower because Boldin couldn't stay healthy to put up those top-5 finishes? I don't think so. That's why I use PPG- so I'm not penalizing Dez Bryant for Anquan Boldin's injury issues.I do think that the presence of another quality target across the field prevents either player from putting up the insane 200-target seasons like Marvin Harrison had before Wayne burst on the scene, but I don't know why that's particularly relevant when I'm not ranking either player as the #1 dynasty WR. I'm ranking both in the top 10 based on the consistency with which I expect them to finish in the top 10. You want to keep reminding me that neither guy will ever put up 140/1700 like Harrison did? Fine, doesn't change anything in the slightest. NFL offenses have proven time and time and time and time and time and time and time again that they're more than capable of supporting two top-10 or top-8 or top-whatever receivers, so personally when I see someone say "I don't want to rank these two receivers in the top-10 or top-8 or top-whatever because they're teammates", it doesn't fly. There's too much history to the contrary to give that much credence.
A #4/#6 ranking is more unlikely than a #7/#10 ranking because 4 and 6 are higher than 7 and 10. It's more unlikely for the #1 receiver to live up to his draft position than it is for the #7 receiver to live up to his draft position. That has nothing to do with his teammates and everything to do with simple mathematical rules.
I think these are very valid points of comparison and moreover, I wonder how the presence of an elite TE drawing looks affects this point? Witten is only 28 and he will command 120-140 targets himself. I know that Moss and Carter did not have a great TE on the team at the same time. Holt and Bruce didn't either. Harrison and Wayne I seem to recall maybe one year when the TE had a good year too, but most of the time not. Dallas Clark has really emerged only since Harrison has retired.
Is it rare? Sure. As EBF said, it's rare enough for a team to have one elite passcatcher, let alone two. Getting THREE elite passcatchers? Forgetaboutit. It's almost an unheard of circumstance...
almost.1980 San Diego Chargers.
John Jefferson - 82/1340/18, fantasy WR1, first team AP All Pro
Charlie Joiner - 71/1132/4, fantasy WR11, first team AP All Pro
Kellen Winslow - 89/1290/9, fantasy TE1, first team AP All Pro
Had Winslow been a WR, the Chargers would have had three top-12 WRs. The 2004 Indy Colts also put 3 players among the top 12 WRs. Is it rare? Sure. So is having 3 players as talented as Austin/Bryant/Witten. The point is that it's neither impossible nor unheard of. Besides, people have cooled on Witten considerably.
I haven't seen him in the top 4 in anyone's rankings since last offseason. And it's not like Witten is going to be hoarding TDs or anything. There's still plenty of room for both WRs in Dallas to put up double-digit receiving TDs.
As the 15th, there's certainly value to be had if he reaches his potential. I just get more conservative with players who don't make it through pre-season with the time he's missed in college even. I like the kid enough, own him in my main league, but I'm a bit cautious with him right now. Honestly, do you see his value climbing much this year? I personally don't, maybe he'll climb to around #10, but he could also slip to the 20s.
Not to nit pick too much, but there is a difference between where a player is ranked and where they are drafted- in any given draft, most guys will be picked either higher or lower than their rankings or adp. The guy who picked Chad #1 could have had Housh #15, the Fitz owner could have had Boldin #15, and the Wayne owner could have had Marvin #15 for example.
and thank you.
