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Week 4 Survivor pool strategy (1 Viewer)

Big Blue Wrecking Crew

Big Blue Wrecking Crew

downsized
Don't see a thread for this week, so...

Detroit at Dallas

Carolina at Chicago

Buffalo at Cincinnati

Tennessee at Cleveland

Minnesota at Kansas City

Washington at St. Louis

New Orleans at Jacksonville

Pittsburgh at Houston

San Francisco at Philadelphia

NY Giants at Arizona

Atlanta at Seattle

Miami at San Diego

New England at Oakland

Denver at Green Bay

NY Jets at Baltimore

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay

Would appear GB, NO, and SD are the safest plays, but for those looking for value plays, TB and CHI are in the mix. Thoughts?

 
If you're gonna pick Philly, you might want to think about how confident you are that they can beat the Niners with Kafka playing since Vick hasn't finished the last 2 games he's started.

 
I'm on GB for now, but Chicago at home to Carolina sure is enticing. That team can implode at any moment, in my mind, though...

 
I'm not sure San Diego is ever a safe play anymore.

There is no better week to take Tampa than right now. They probably won't cover 10 points, but they should keep you alive this week.

 
'Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Would appear GB, NO, and SD are the safest plays, but for those looking for value plays, TB and CHI are in the mix. Thoughts?
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Those are the three I took (three spots in the same pool). I took chances last week with Tennessee and Carolina and it almost bit me. I'm just looking to move on this week.

Incidentally, I hate Matt Cassell. He throws a pick on a screen pass when they are driving to win the game! :wall: That would have bounced 112 people!

 
thanks for doing this thead BBWC :thumbup:

RN must be busy or something...

I've chosen both Tampa and New Orleans in separate pools. Tampa facing a horrible QB in Painter making his first NFL start at home is a good safe matchup. And New Orleans against Jacksonville. Think about this for a second. Does anyone think a Blaine Gabbert led team can hang with Drew Brees and a welcomed back Marques Colston? :no: Well, me neither.

Trap game that many could lose their season on is Atl at Sea.

 
'Raiderfan32904 said:
thanks for doing this thead BBWC :thumbup: RN must be busy or something...
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No sweat. Always good to see others' logic for picks shared. I have 3 picks remaining in my pool, so I typically take one "risky" pick where the long term value is good (CAR last week, for example). That's where CHI or TB stand out to me. BUF (@ CIN) could be another one, but leery of road teams in general, as well as the week after NE hangover that is possible.
 
1st 3 picks of NE, PIT and SD were gimmies. This is my riskiest pick of BUF over CIN but looking at their schedule, this is their best shot.

 
'Buc in Exile said:
I'm not sure San Diego is ever a safe play anymore.
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Yep, that's why I took them last week and even then the game was close.
There is no better week to take Tampa than right now. They probably won't cover 10 points, but they should keep you alive this week.
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Agreed. Going into the season I was planning on taking Chicago in week 4, but I'll save them for either week 13 (vs. Indy) or week 15 (vs. Seattle) if needed. This is easily the best week to take Tampa, at home vs. Indy. Teams favored by 10 or more at home win 84% of the time. Colts are coming off a short week too.
 
Have GB in one league and TB in another...have consolidated my picks in the first 3 weeks, but may keep the separate entries this time around...

 
'Raider Nation said:
'Buc in Exile said:
There is no better week to take Tampa than right now.
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Painter leads the Colts to a win this week @ Tampa. I get these weird premonitions once or twice a year that come true. This is one of them.
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Well, stranger things have happened and Tampa really isn't capable of blowing anyone out so Indy will have their chances. But you have to take some calculated risks at some point in this thing and you rarely get a team like Tampa as a double digit favorite. I sense that Indy put a lot into the Pittsburgh game last week and I can't remember the last time the Bucs were home on Monday night. We'll see.But, honestly, nothing the Bucs do would surprise me. Been a fan too long to feel totally secure.
 
'Dexter Manley said:
Teams favored by 10 or more at home win 84% of the time.
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I'd love to know what that percentage would be if you removed the Chargers from the calculation. They have to account for at least half of that 16%. :D I took SD last week as well - and I am SOOO glad to be done with them for the year.
 
'Buc in Exile said:
'Raider Nation said:
'Buc in Exile said:
There is no better week to take Tampa than right now.
Click to expand...
Painter leads the Colts to a win this week @ Tampa. I get these weird premonitions once or twice a year that come true. This is one of them.
Click to expand...
Well, stranger things have happened and Tampa really isn't capable of blowing anyone out so Indy will have their chances. But you have to take some calculated risks at some point in this thing and you rarely get a team like Tampa as a double digit favorite. I sense that Indy put a lot into the Pittsburgh game last week and I can't remember the last time the Bucs were home on Monday night. We'll see.But, honestly, nothing the Bucs do would surprise me. Been a fan too long to feel totally secure.
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I was choosing between Green Bay and Tampa Bay and went with Tampa because of the future value issue. There is no other game on Tampa's schedule that I could see myself taking them, barring unforeseen injuries/collapse.However, Green Bay is likely to be heavily favored against the Rams in two weeks and against the Chiefs in December. I only used this as the tiebreaker as I'm not big on the save 'em for later argument because it burned me multiple times in the past. I'm a big believer in taking the surest thing possible each week.If I was uncomfortable at all with Tampa, I'd go with GB, but I like Tampa at home as a double digit favorite against a Curtis Painter-led Indy team.
 
Taking Tampa as planned.

Plotted ahead so posting this should get me knocked out this week:

W1: HOU v IND

W2: DET v KC

W3: SD v KC

W4: TB v IND (-10.5)

W5: PIT v TEN (-9)

W6: ATL v CAR (-9)

W7: NO v IND (-14.5)

W8: TEN v IND (-9)

W9: DAL v SEA (-9)

W10: PHL v ARI (-7.5)

W11: NE v KC (-14.5)

W12: BAL v SF (-9)

W13: CHI v KC (-7.5)

W14: NYJ v KC (-9.5)

W15: GB @ KC (-9.5)

W16: OAK @ KC (-3)

W17: ARI v SEA (-6)

 
'Dexter Manley said:
'Buc in Exile said:
I'm not sure San Diego is ever a safe play anymore.
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Yep, that's why I took them last week and even then the game was close.
There is no better week to take Tampa than right now. They probably won't cover 10 points, but they should keep you alive this week.
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Agreed. Going into the season I was planning on taking Chicago in week 4, but I'll save them for either week 13 (vs. Indy) or week 15 (vs. Seattle) if needed. This is easily the best week to take Tampa, at home vs. Indy. Teams favored by 10 or more at home win 84% of the time. Colts are coming off a short week too.
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They are playing Monday night...not a short week.
 
My problems with taking TB this week are:

1) Indy played very tough last week and only lost by 3. Pittsburgh is way better than TB.

2) Tampa Bay hasn't played a complete game yet and looks very shaky at times. All 3 games have been close.

3) It is Monday night and I don't trust prime time games like this because players can sometimes play out of character, good or bad.

 
'Jayrod said:
My problems with taking TB this week are:1) Indy played very tough last week and only lost by 3. Pittsburgh is way better than TB.2) Tampa Bay hasn't played a complete game yet and looks very shaky at times. All 3 games have been close.3) It is Monday night and I don't trust prime time games like this because players can sometimes play out of character, good or bad.
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Yes, but that was due in large part the OL of the Steelers allowing Indy to run rampant causing turnovers and no run game. With the way that OL is looking do we really KNOW that the Steelers are WAY better? The Bucs are at home should be able to run the ball decently and they also shouldn't have 3+ TOs. I'll take Tampa based on the future value and the fact that I wont have another chance to take them.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Jayrod said:
My problems with taking TB this week are:1) Indy played very tough last week and only lost by 3. Pittsburgh is way better than TB.2) Tampa Bay hasn't played a complete game yet and looks very shaky at times. All 3 games have been close.3) It is Monday night and I don't trust prime time games like this because players can sometimes play out of character, good or bad.
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not to argue with your points, but just some counterpoints to consider:1)Did Indy really play tough last week or did Pittsburgh play to the level of their competition? I saw a tenacious Indy D, but also a soft Pittsburgh D last week. Maybe Pittsburgh is better than TB. Maybe. But they sure aren't playing like it. 2) Tampa Bay had a miserable first game against a very good Lions team, then came back in the second half to beat the Vikings, and last week had very much a "complete game" physically dominating a very strong Falcons team. The final score was closer than the body language of the players showed in the late 4th qtr. Tampa Bay isn't winning with a sexy offense, but they are now outphysicalling other teams, and the defense is wearing down opposing offenses. Matt Ryan was running for his life. The Bucs O-line has been outstanding in both protection and run blocking. 3) It's Curtis Painter's first ever NFL start, and playing on the road in hostile Raymond James Stadium is a big disadvantage.
 
'Buc in Exile said:
'Raider Nation said:
'Buc in Exile said:
There is no better week to take Tampa than right now.
Click to expand...
Painter leads the Colts to a win this week @ Tampa. I get these weird premonitions once or twice a year that come true. This is one of them.
Click to expand...
Well, stranger things have happened and Tampa really isn't capable of blowing anyone out so Indy will have their chances. But you have to take some calculated risks at some point in this thing and you rarely get a team like Tampa as a double digit favorite. I sense that Indy put a lot into the Pittsburgh game last week and I can't remember the last time the Bucs were home on Monday night. We'll see.But, honestly, nothing the Bucs do would surprise me. Been a fan too long to feel totally secure.
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Could it be the game where they gave up 21 points in the last 4 minutes of the game losing to the very same team they are playing this week, the Colts :unsure: . Honestly Tampa looks like the team to take this week; though generally I try to stay away from Monday night games cause crazy #### always seems to happen. Also, I think the Broncos play GB really tight this week. Broncos aren't as bad as their record indicates imo, I could see the game going to the final minutes there.

 
'Lehigh98 said:
Taking Tampa as planned.Plotted ahead so posting this should get me knocked out this week:W1: HOU v INDW2: DET v KCW3: SD v KCW4: TB v IND (-10.5)W5: PIT v TEN (-9)W6: ATL v CAR (-9)W7: NO v IND (-14.5)W8: TEN v IND (-9)W9: DAL v SEA (-9)W10: PHL v ARI (-7.5)W11: NE v KC (-14.5)W12: BAL v SF (-9)W13: CHI v KC (-7.5)W14: NYJ v KC (-9.5)W15: GB @ KC (-9.5)W16: OAK @ KC (-3)W17: ARI v SEA (-6)
Click to expand...
Looks good - my only quibble would be in Week 16, since you have the option of taking BUF v. DEN (-6.5).
 
'Lehigh98 said:
Taking Tampa as planned.Plotted ahead so posting this should get me knocked out this week:W1: HOU v INDW2: DET v KCW3: SD v KCW4: TB v IND (-10.5)W5: PIT v TEN (-9)W6: ATL v CAR (-9)W7: NO v IND (-14.5)W8: TEN v IND (-9)W9: DAL v SEA (-9)W10: PHL v ARI (-7.5)W11: NE v KC (-14.5)W12: BAL v SF (-9)W13: CHI v KC (-7.5)W14: NYJ v KC (-9.5)W15: GB @ KC (-9.5)W16: OAK @ KC (-3)W17: ARI v SEA (-6)
Click to expand...
I opted for TB as well. Looking at your plan - very nice. My only concern is will KC, as bad as they are, lose 4 games in a row week,s 13 through 16, ther last two of which are at home? They may just be that bad though.
 
Going with GB. TB is appealing but I hate picking against winless teams after three weeks, Indy's defense looked desperate and nasty last week, TB's offense seems really shaky, and I could see Painter make enough throws with a week of reps and gameplan to help him out.

 
'Jayrod said:
My problems with taking TB this week are:1) Indy played very tough last week and only lost by 3. Pittsburgh is way better than TB.2) Tampa Bay hasn't played a complete game yet and looks very shaky at times. All 3 games have been close.3) It is Monday night and I don't trust prime time games like this because players can sometimes play out of character, good or bad.
Click to expand...
All good points for why im not touching TB. My gut pick is GB and im sticking with it.
 
'Buc in Exile said:
'Lehigh98 said:
W16: OAK @ KC (-3)
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Looks good - my only quibble would be in Week 16, since you have the option of taking BUF v. DEN (-6.5).
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'NajehHejan said:
I opted for TB as well. Looking at your plan - very nice. My only concern is will KC, as bad as they are, lose 4 games in a row week,s 13 through 16, ther last two of which are at home? They may just be that bad though.
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This will be fluid week to week let alone 12 weeks down the road. Also if we're still alive by by week 16 we should have some teams limping in, resting starters, or sucking for luck that we can pick that aren't obvious now.
 
'Lehigh98 said:
'Buc in Exile said:
'Lehigh98 said:
W16: OAK @ KC (-3)
Click to expand...
Looks good - my only quibble would be in Week 16, since you have the option of taking BUF v. DEN (-6.5).
Click to expand...
'NajehHejan said:
I opted for TB as well. Looking at your plan - very nice. My only concern is will KC, as bad as they are, lose 4 games in a row week,s 13 through 16, ther last two of which are at home? They may just be that bad though.
Click to expand...
This will be fluid week to week let alone 12 weeks down the road. Also if we're still alive by by week 16 we should have some teams limping in, resting starters, or sucking for luck that we can pick that aren't obvious now.
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:thumbup: Just curious, have you ever won one of these?I've been close. Lost in week 16 a few years back when the Raiders blew out the Texans. I was on my way up to my aunt's for a holiday party and listened to the debacle on the radio, and then my wheel fell off my car on the expressway. Not a good day. Made it to week 15 the next year when the Browns beat the Steelers. Really hoping this is my year. Love these weekly threads.
 
I'm going ATL over SEA this week. Line is way too low and I look for a blowout. I don't care that its in SEA, ATL is the far superior team and should be focused after a tough divisional loss. I'd consider GB and NO as well, but I think they'll have more gimmes over this season while SEA might be the worst team in the NFL. I like TB over IND as well, but I'm pretty distrustful of TB, especially with the possible let down after an important divisional win. I doubt it, but I'm just more confident in ATL over SEA.

 
I too think the gap between Tampa and Indy is not as far as people might think. If Painter even has a couple lucky connections, this could be a game. Tampa seem to have a knack of keeping people in the game, they usually win, but not by much, even at home. I could very well be over-thinking it, but Colts could rally around Painter, kind of like when a new coach comes in and a team uses it as momentum to play over their heads.

That said, contrary to what has been mentioned, I believe MNF favourites win at a higher % than any other time slot.

 
'FavreCo said:
1st 3 picks of NE, PIT and SD were gimmies. This is my riskiest pick of BUF over CIN but looking at their schedule, this is their best shot.
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technically should be a gimme, but the whole let down theory after a big win worries me. after all, last week for buffalo was like winning an arm wrestling match against [name your deity here] on paper. went with gb myself, but buf seems like a really good pick.
 
'HoTnickZ said:
I too think the gap between Tampa and Indy is not as far as people might think. If Painter even has a couple lucky connections, this could be a game. Tampa seem to have a knack of keeping people in the game, they usually win, but not by much, even at home. I could very well be over-thinking it, but Colts could rally around Painter, kind of like when a new coach comes in and a team uses it as momentum to play over their heads.
Click to expand...
Totally my line of thinking. And how often do you think Freeman sees a pass rush like these two beast DEs? Their speed around the edge is overwhelming even for teams which see them often.

 
'Raider Nation said:
'HoTnickZ said:
I too think the gap between Tampa and Indy is not as far as people might think. If Painter even has a couple lucky connections, this could be a game. Tampa seem to have a knack of keeping people in the game, they usually win, but not by much, even at home. I could very well be over-thinking it, but Colts could rally around Painter, kind of like when a new coach comes in and a team uses it as momentum to play over their heads.
Click to expand...
Totally my line of thinking. And how often do you think Freeman sees a pass rush like these two beast DEs? Their speed around the edge is overwhelming even for teams which see them often.
Click to expand...
My only thing is I dislike going against the unknown. I just rather use TB now and save GB for later.Say what you will about the Vikings this season they have had a pretty good pass rush. The Bucs were playing on the road with our noise and the turf just adds to that and he did fine. Pass rush isn't such a big deal when the QB is the jolly green giant. I think we'll see a lot of similarities to the Vikings game. Down early with Blount doing a whole bunch of nothing at the half, but then in the second half a lack of third down conversions kill Indy drives and leave the D on the field too long. The D eventually tires and breaks giving up the lead somewhere in the middle of the fourth quarter.

But this is the NFL so who the heck knows. :lmao:

 
'griff321 said:
'Raider Nation said:
'HoTnickZ said:
I too think the gap between Tampa and Indy is not as far as people might think. If Painter even has a couple lucky connections, this could be a game. Tampa seem to have a knack of keeping people in the game, they usually win, but not by much, even at home. I could very well be over-thinking it, but Colts could rally around Painter, kind of like when a new coach comes in and a team uses it as momentum to play over their heads.
Click to expand...
Totally my line of thinking. And how often do you think Freeman sees a pass rush like these two beast DEs? Their speed around the edge is overwhelming even for teams which see them often.
Click to expand...
My only thing is I dislike going against the unknown. I just rather use TB now and save GB for later.Say what you will about the Vikings this season they have had a pretty good pass rush. The Bucs were playing on the road with our noise and the turf just adds to that and he did fine. Pass rush isn't such a big deal when the QB is the jolly green giant. I think we'll see a lot of similarities to the Vikings game. Down early with Blount doing a whole bunch of nothing at the half, but then in the second half a lack of third down conversions kill Indy drives and leave the D on the field too long. The D eventually tires and breaks giving up the lead somewhere in the middle of the fourth quarter.
Click to expand...
How big was the QB they hassled for 60 minutes last week? ;)
 
'johnadams said:
I'm going ATL over SEA this week. Line is way too low and I look for a blowout. I don't care that its in SEA, ATL is the far superior team and should be focused after a tough divisional loss. I'd consider GB and NO as well, but I think they'll have more gimmes over this season while SEA might be the worst team in the NFL. I like TB over IND as well, but I'm pretty distrustful of TB, especially with the possible let down after an important divisional win. I doubt it, but I'm just more confident in ATL over SEA.
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I am too. The whole Seattle home field scares me a bit. Good teams go there and wither at times but I just can't see it this week. ATL is in a must win mode and they are so far more talented across the board. I actually see them winning going away. They must right the ship now.
 
'griff321 said:
My only thing is I dislike going against the unknown. I just rather use TB now and save GB for later.
Click to expand...
That's why I am staying away from the Tampa/Indy game. I think Tampa is tough to get a read on this early in the season, if others have a better handle on them, good. I don't. As for Indy, it doesn't get more unknown than Painter. If he can game manage, there are a lot of players on this team that know how to win, a lot off proud vets. That Steelers game should have woken a lot of people up. Average QB play, they win that game. I could see a lot of Survivor players getting cute with this game, and getting burned. And I would like to see how I feel about TB in weeks 13/14, as they face CAR and @JAX. I am not saving them, but they are an average team with some late season matchups I like.

I was thinking about Green Bay, because while I expect them to win 12 at least, I don't see a home run guaranteed win down the stretch. Easiest games are divisional matchups, and I am avoiding them if I can. Sadly, I like them against OAK in week 14.

Going with Philly. Vick is fully practicing, and even if he left in the 2nd quarter, I think this team can handle San Fran, who is playing 2nd road game in a row, early East Coast to boot. Love those games. After two losses in a row, and two road games on deck, Philly knows this game cannot be anything but a win, or they are in a serious hole. The best looking games the rest of the year for Philly are ARZ and CHI at home, neither of which are gimmees, and with a team I think will be hot/cold all year, I don't feel like I am wasting them this early.

heck, I want to use Philly before someone breaks Vick's leg.

 
I'm going "off the board" and selecting Minnesota over KC this week. My first three picks this season were carefully considered; I'm due for a foolhardy pick and if it bites me in the butt at least I went out on a flight of whimsy.

But seriously, the Chiefs are that bad.

And: ADP >>>> McCluster, All Day long

 
'massraider said:
Going with Philly. Vick is fully practicing, and even if he left in the 2nd quarter, I think this team can handle San Fran, who is playing 2nd road game in a row, early East Coast to boot. Love those games. After two losses in a row, and two road games on deck, Philly knows this game cannot be anything but a win, or they are in a serious hole.
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:goodposting: The Niners are disgusting.
 
'aardball44 said:
I'm going "off the board" and selecting Minnesota over KC this week. My first three picks this season were carefully considered; I'm due for a foolhardy pick and if it bites me in the butt at least I went out on a flight of whimsy.But seriously, the Chiefs are that bad. And: ADP >>>> McCluster, All Day long
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:bye:
 
'Raider Nation said:
'massraider said:
Going with Philly. Vick is fully practicing, and even if he left in the 2nd quarter, I think this team can handle San Fran, who is playing 2nd road game in a row, early East Coast to boot. Love those games. After two losses in a row, and two road games on deck, Philly knows this game cannot be anything but a win, or they are in a serious hole.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: The Niners are disgusting.
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:mellow:
 
'griff321 said:
'Raider Nation said:
'HoTnickZ said:
I too think the gap between Tampa and Indy is not as far as people might think. If Painter even has a couple lucky connections, this could be a game. Tampa seem to have a knack of keeping people in the game, they usually win, but not by much, even at home. I could very well be over-thinking it, but Colts could rally around Painter, kind of like when a new coach comes in and a team uses it as momentum to play over their heads.
Click to expand...
Totally my line of thinking. And how often do you think Freeman sees a pass rush like these two beast DEs? Their speed around the edge is overwhelming even for teams which see them often.
Click to expand...
My only thing is I dislike going against the unknown. I just rather use TB now and save GB for later.Say what you will about the Vikings this season they have had a pretty good pass rush. The Bucs were playing on the road with our noise and the turf just adds to that and he did fine. Pass rush isn't such a big deal when the QB is the jolly green giant. I think we'll see a lot of similarities to the Vikings game. Down early with Blount doing a whole bunch of nothing at the half, but then in the second half a lack of third down conversions kill Indy drives and leave the D on the field too long. The D eventually tires and breaks giving up the lead somewhere in the middle of the fourth quarter.

But this is the NFL so who the heck knows. :lmao:
Click to expand...
:tinfoilhat:
 
'griff321 said:
'griff321 said:
'Raider Nation said:
'HoTnickZ said:
I too think the gap between Tampa and Indy is not as far as people might think. If Painter even has a couple lucky connections, this could be a game. Tampa seem to have a knack of keeping people in the game, they usually win, but not by much, even at home. I could very well be over-thinking it, but Colts could rally around Painter, kind of like when a new coach comes in and a team uses it as momentum to play over their heads.
Click to expand...
Totally my line of thinking. And how often do you think Freeman sees a pass rush like these two beast DEs? Their speed around the edge is overwhelming even for teams which see them often.
Click to expand...
My only thing is I dislike going against the unknown. I just rather use TB now and save GB for later.Say what you will about the Vikings this season they have had a pretty good pass rush. The Bucs were playing on the road with our noise and the turf just adds to that and he did fine. Pass rush isn't such a big deal when the QB is the jolly green giant. I think we'll see a lot of similarities to the Vikings game. Down early with Blount doing a whole bunch of nothing at the half, but then in the second half a lack of third down conversions kill Indy drives and leave the D on the field too long. The D eventually tires and breaks giving up the lead somewhere in the middle of the fourth quarter.

But this is the NFL so who the heck knows. :lmao:
Click to expand...
:tinfoilhat:
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
'Buc in Exile said:
There is no better week to take Tampa than right now. They probably won't cover 10 points, but they should keep you alive this week.
Click to expand...
Not that I didn't sweat a little, mind you. :ph34r:
 
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