I'll probably do a full update sometime before the draft, but for now here's a quick update after the combine. In general, I'm really not excited about the top of this class. I've been saying that for a while and it's still true. I feel like the 1.03-1.10 range is a real minefield. There is virtually nobody there that I really like. So pick your poison and cross your fingers. Or better yet, trade down or up. This is an interesting WR class because so many of the guys fall into one of the two categories:A. Great football players with suspect physical tools.B. Great athletes with suspect football ability.In general, I favored the latter over the former because I value upside pretty highly. 1. RB Eddie Lacy - Not amazing, but good in every facet of the game. Put him in a starting role and he should be a top 10-15 FF back. 2. WR Cordarrelle Patterson - Have to rank him high because of difference-maker potential. Electric with the ball. Route running and separation? Boom-or-bust.3. WR Keenan Allen - Looks like a solid prospect when you watch him. Lack of great strength or speed is a concern. Atypical game makes him a bit of a risk. 4. TE Tyler Eifert - The #2 pick in 1.5 PPR for TE leagues. One of the only safe bets in this draft. No real risk that I can see. Solid upside.5. WR Da'Rick Rogers - Gifted athlete who always gets results. Big and strong. Explosive numbers in his combine workouts. Needs to refine his game. Especially route running. Not a sudden or effective route runner.6. WR Justin Hunter - Atypical build and style. Sidney Rice type. Very tall and thin. Explosive vertically. Not very agile or elusive. Routes are also a question mark. 7. RB Gio Bernard - Monster production. Good vision, instincts, and receiving skills. Average athlete. Does not pop when I watch his clips. May lack starter tools.8. WR Marcus Davis - Boom-or-bust project with the upside to become the best WR/RB from this class. Huge frame. Better hands than advertised. Impossible to jam. Needs to refine his technique and improve his suddenness out of his routes. If he can do that, the sky is the limit. 9. WR Robert Woods - Safe #2 receiver with minimal upside. Average athlete on paper. Instinctive and natural player on the field. Runs good routes and catches the ball well. Should be useful for FF purposes, but does not obviously have the potential to be more than a WR2-WR3. 10. WR DeAndre Hopkins - Tall with good hands and ball skills. Precise route runner, but does not possess a great deal of speed or explosiveness. A bit of a possession/finesse tweener. I think he lacks the sheer physical ability to be a #1 target.11. WR Markus Wheaton - Quick twitch athlete with above average speed. Playmaker. Lacks height and bulk. May struggle with the physicality of the NFL. I like him, but I think he is strictly a complementary WR. Does not have the right set of physical tools to be a 130+ target per season guy. 12. RB Christine Michael - Great combination of bulk/speed/explosiveness. Elite physical tools guarantee that he won't be out of his depth in the NFL. Never produced on par with his talent though. Never had a 1000+ yard season in college. Not particularly elusive beyond the line of scrimmage. Not great in space. Struggles to avoid hits and (probably as a result) has had some durability issues. He will be serviceable, but I don't expect top 15 numbers at any point. 13. WR Quinton Patton - Good at everything. Great at nothing. Solid frame. Speed is only average. Quick in and out of his routes, but doesn't have the sheer explosiveness or speed to frighten NFL defenders. Elusive after the catch. Figures to be a good #2 target. I don't see the upside to become a strong #1. 14. WR Josh Boyce - The best athlete in this year's WR class. Very fast for his size and flashed special vertical skills at the combine with his 4.38 speed and 10'11" broad jump. However, he's only rated as a 4th-5th round talent by most evaluators. Shorter than ideal. Was always good in college, but never dominant. Looks okay on film. Not amazing. Injury questions. Bit of a slot/outside tweener. Has the potential to emerge as a big surprise down the road and could end up being something like Pierre Garcon, but there are enough minor red flags to just keep him out of the first two tiers. 15. RB Knile Davis - Awesome combination of weight and straight line speed. Great production in 2010 before falling off the map due to injuries and lack of playing time. Does not run with as much power as his listed dimensions would lead you to believe. The biggest problem is that he is not elusive in tight spaces and struggles to string moves together and make people miss. He is a like a more compact Darren McFadden. Fantastic in a straight line when working with big lanes. Incapable of eluding or creating on his own. 16. RB Marcus Lattimore - I wasn't sky high on him even before his injuries. Runs with a lot of bounce and has the weight you look for in a featured back. Productive college standout in a tough conference. Thin lower body though and IMO will always struggle to stay healthy, even if he manages to recover fully from his catastrophic injury. Likely to be overdrafted in FF on the basis of name recognition. If I took him, it would be with an eye towards shifting him for a profit the minute he gets healthy and shows any promise in the NFL. 17. QB Geno Smith - Good stats in college. How much of that was the system? Has the physical tools to play in the NFL. The main question is about his ability to do the little things. Can he look off defenders and move through his progressions? Can he thrive under center? Can he thrive under pressure? The consensus seems to be that Smith is worth a first round investment, but that he's not a slam dunk lock to succeed.18. WR Chris Harper - Big frame. Not explosive, but moves reasonably well before and after the catch. Reliable hands catcher. Size and strength will make him a difficult cover for most cornerbacks. Solid prospect. Lack of dynamic qualities means he is probably destined for a supporting role. 19. WR Marquess Wilson - A poor-man's AJ Green. Tall with great natural hands and jump ball skills. Monster production. Deceptively good route runner. Lacks any semblance of strength and bulk. May get pushed around at the next level. Character issues. Has the upside to surprise though. Good 2nd round rookie pick.20. WR Tavon Austin - My pick for most overrated FF prospect in the draft. People will see him as a Welker/Harvin proposition for FF and that might be possible, but in my view he's too small to handle a huge volume of targets and will be best used as a complementary weapon. I think he'll be like a better Andrew Hawkins. Someone who can make things happen with the ball in his hands, but not a guy who will get enough targets to be a reliable FF weapon. More valuable in the NFL than in FF. Will be overdrafted in FF on the basis of where a team takes him in April. 21. RB Spencer Ware - Poor college production. Low YPC. Not explosive and relies too much on his power when confronted by defenders, barreling into them when he should seek to avoid. Might lack the elusiveness to be a good pro. Great frame though and has the look of a sleeper talent to me. If nothing else, should find a niche role. Can catch the ball, pass protect, and run in short yardage very well. Rare receiving ability for a big back. 22. WR Ryan Swope - Looked a bit awkward in positional drills, but has a lot of things going for him. Good college production. Very explosive workout numbers. Not as natural or fluid as some of the other receivers in this draft, but possesses special qualities that help him compensate. He reminds me a little bit of Jordy Nelson and could make a good #2 for a team that likes to throw downfield. 23. RB Montee Ball - Just okay at everything. He has a decent frame with okay speed, quickness, and power. Will that be enough in the NFL? Ball really lacks dynamic qualities and will only be as good as the team around him. I view him more as a backup than a lock starter. On the right team, he can be a capable stopgap guy. 24. TE Zach Ertz - 20 spots below Eifert might be a bit harsh. He doesn't look as good to me though and the combine exposed his lack of standout tools. He is slightly built with just okay speed and burst. His best assets are his tall frame and natural hands. I don't personally see special potential and FF TEs aren't worth much unless they're in that super elite class, so for me he's not really worth a shot higher than this in most formats. OTHERS:QB Matt Barkley - I would definitely consider taking a chance on him in the late 2nd-early 3rd of a typical league if he were available.RB Andre Ellington - Good talent. Too small to be a featured guy and doesn't have the Spiller/Charles type of speed to compensate.RB LeVeon Bell - Interesting prospect with a unique package of skills. Could have some success on the right team. Soft body who lacks innate explosiveness.RB Stepfan Taylor - Totally bombed the combine. Put up the numbers of a high school kid. Shocking performance raises big questions about his NFL potential.RB Zac Stacy - A reasonable late round gamble. Not a superstar, but could be capable.RB Kenjon Barner - Strictly a committee guy/role player.RB Jonathan Franklin - Okay prospect. Lacks standout traits.RB Michael Ford - Awesome combine numbers. At LSU I always thought he was too much of a straight-line runner. WR Terrance Williams - Never been a big fan. Timed speed was a minor disappointment. Not as fluid in his routes as guys like Woods and Patton.WR Cobi Hamilton - Looked like a decent mid-late round gamble in the positional drills. WR Marquise Goodwin - Awesome speed. Below average innate football talent. Strictly a field stretcher for now. WR Ace Sanders - Fun to watch. Lightning quick. Short frame and suspect receiving skills. Likely just a low volume slot guy/return man in the NFL. WR Aaron Mellette - A draftable third day prospect with reasonable talent and upside. Nothing amazing.WR Aaron Dobson - A tall and lanky Justin Hunter type. Did not work out at the combine. Figures to be a 3rd-4th round pick. TE Gavin Escobar - Scouts seem to really like his vertical ability, catch radius, and natural hands. Billed to become a quality pro player.
I like the rankings. I own the 1.01 in a 2PPR(TE) league and am really considering Eifert right now, despite my thoughts on Lacy, so I agree, that he is worth a top 3 pick in 1.5+PPR leagues.
to me, Franklin is at least a 2nd rounder in 12 team leagues
